There is no chalk in Atlantis. The seventh-place game features #2 Arizona and #18 Purdue. #5 Villanova won’t see either of them this trip (not that their tournament resume should need the help). And Tennessee, who was supposed to lose to Purdue then face a pair of mid-major foes, will leave the Bahamas with three power conference opponents on their resume.
As such things go, it was always going to be better for the Vols to beat Purdue and lose to Villanova and in the third place game than lose to Purdue and beat two mid-majors. Now, with Wednesday’s quality win checked off the list and the strength-of-schedule boost from facing Villanova added to it, Tennessee gets one more chance to improve their standing in facing NC State.
1. Mark Gottfried -> Kevin Keatts
Last year NC State went 11-2 in non-conference play, then 4-14 in ACC play. Thus ended Mark Gottfried’s time in Raleigh: six years and a pair of Sweet 16’s in the first four, but sub-.500 seasons the last two years. Kevin Keatts is in after three years at UNC-Wilmington and three CAA titles.
Also new is graduate transfer Allerik Freeman, a two-year starter at Baylor. The 6’3″ guard was a 38.9% three-point shooter last year, and is an instant impact scorer for the Wolfpack this season with 16.2 points per game despite shooting just 26.7% from the arc so far. He had 24 in their upset of Arizona in the first round. NC State is 5-1 and 89th in KenPom.
2. Run Run Wolfpack
Tennessee played a 40 minute slugfest with Purdue to get it to overtime, then beat the Boilermakers at a much faster pace to win the extra five minutes. Against Villanova the Vols scored 46 points in the first half. Tennessee’s early returns suggest a team capable of winning a number of different ways.
Today we’ll see how they handle a faster tempo. NC State is 57th on this young season in pace of play, and averages 85.1 points per game. Northern Iowa didn’t slow them down so much as play good defense: in their 64-60 win yesterday, the Wolfpack shot just 33.8% from the floor, 8-of-30 (26.7%) from the arc, and 8-of-13 (61.5%) from the line. It has to feel like a game they should have won from NC State’s perspective.
3. What are we learning about Tennessee?
Take away a couple of bad stretches against Villanova – which will happen against one of the very best teams in the nation – and the Vols have played really good basketball on both ends of the floor. Turnovers led to a flurry of transition buckets for the Wildcats; Tennessee hasn’t been great in transition defense, but the Vols are also getting enough offense (and emphasizing offensive rebound enough) to not find themselves on their heels very often. We’ll see how that plays itself out at a faster pace today.
But two very good signs early for the Vols: one, Tennessee is shooting 40% from the arc on this young season. It may never be a strength for this team, but they shot in the low 30’s last season. If a performance like 6-of-20 against Villanova can be the basement instead of the average, the Vols are going to win a lot more games this year. Lamonte Turner is 8-of-20 and Jordan Bowden 8-of-15, and they’re both getting much better looks than they saw last year due to better work inside from Grant Williams as well as John Fulkerson and Kyle Alexander.
Two, the Vols have generally played good defense. Purdue shot 37.3% against Tennessee. Villanova’s transition game fueled a stellar second half; the Wildcats finished at 46% from the floor. The Vols have also been hurt by really strong free throw shooting from the other side: Purdue and Villanova went 54-of-62 (87.1%). That’s not going to show up every night.
How well Tennessee defends today will go a long way to determining how successful this weekend can ultimately be. The resume will be better than it was pre-Bahamas either way, and as long as Purdue gets their act together the Vols have a resume win. But going home 4-1 with a near miss against Villanova and two power conference wins would be a big step forward for this program.
Tennessee’s last day in Atlantis tips off at 2:30 PM ET on ESPN2. Go Vols.
