For all that Tennessee and Auburn have accomplished in the last five seasons, it’s kind of strange to realize tomorrow is the first elite showdown between the two in Knoxville during that time.
In Bruce Pearl’s first three seasons (2015-17), Auburn went 44-54. In that same span, the Vols went 47-51 in Rick Barnes’ first two seasons, plus Donnie Tyndall’s year. The two met on January 2, 2018 in Thompson-Boling, with the Vols fresh off a frustrating loss at Arkansas to open league play. Auburn was 12-1, but had played no one rated higher than 45th in KenPom. The Vols were 9-3, and would leave 9-4 (0-2) after Auburn grabbed 22 offensive rebounds.
We wouldn’t meet again until March 9, 2019. In those 14 months, both schools established themselves as a force not just in the SEC, but on the national stage. And neither of us have left.
After going 44-54 from 2015-17, Auburn is 119-41 (56-31 SEC) from 2018-22. After going 47-51 from 2015-17, Tennessee is 112-45 (58-28 SEC) in the same span.
Both are on the way to a fourth NCAA Tournament seed of #5 or higher in these last five seasons (including Auburn as a five seed in the final Bracket Matrix before the pandemic in 2020.) And both are in the hunt for a second SEC Championship, to go with the one we shared in 2018.
Head-to-head, Auburn has won six in a row. The Tigers won in Knoxville in that January 2018 clash, before we both knew where we were headed. And then we missed each other entirely during the come-up over those next 14 months. The only other game in Knoxville since then was the regular season finale in 2020, when Auburn hit 14 threes and drove the Vols back toward the bubble after the win at Rupp Arena.
The two meetings in 2019 were of significant consequence for Tennessee: the 84-80 loss on the Plains in the regular season finale (13 threes for Auburn) cost the Vols the league title. And the rematch the following Sunday in the SEC Tournament (15 threes for Auburn) cost the Vols a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, spoiling the win over Kentucky in the semifinals.
In Auburn’s six straight wins in the series, the Tigers are shooting 36.6% from the arc, averaging 11.2 made threes per game. And that volume is compounded by an average of 14.2 offensive rebounds per game for the Tigers.
Tennessee has solved some of the offensive rebounding woes that previously plagued them, most notably in the home win over LSU. And this Auburn team isn’t as three-happy as its predecessors, getting plenty of great work inside the arc from Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith. We’ll see how much those old woes translate.
I’m much more confident in Knoxville, where the Vols have handled Arizona, Kentucky, LSU, and everyone else this season. Auburn brings in the lowest-rated strength of schedule in the SEC: the Tigers won in Tuscaloosa 81-77 on January 11, but lost at Arkansas and at Florida. They do not go to Rupp or Baton Rouge this year. The crowd will have every opportunity to be a difference-maker as Tennessee pursues its third win over a potential #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. No one in the nation would have something like that on their resume, and no one could doubt setting this team’s ceiling at the very top. It is an extra large basketball game.
There have been incredibly consequential Tennessee/Auburn games in the last five seasons. And Rick Barnes and Bruce Pearl make it easy to believe there will be others, perhaps just two weeks from now in Tampa.
But as both programs have risen, this is the first one of such stature in Knoxville. And I’m excited to see what awaits inside Thompson-Boling on Saturday.
Go Vols.
