I tweeted after the win over Purdue that it was Tennessee’s most valuable victory since Cuonzo Martin’s tenure. To be clear, Rick Barnes and Donnie Tyndall both won games that were big in the moment; any victory over Kentucky is better than beating Purdue on a neutral floor. But in terms of the difference it can make in Tennessee’s season, this is the most valuable win since Tennessee’s run to the 2014 Sweet 16.
We use RPI Wizard a lot on this site; you can use their up-to-the-minute RPI plus Jeff Sagarin’s power ratings to project an end-of-year RPI, plus change any game to a win or loss to see how it might affect the outcome. It’s way too early to worry about overall RPI or any fluid ratings; Sagarin projected the Vols to be around .500 before today, which will certainly change. But even keeping those early projections, it is interesting to note the projected difference in the final RPI based on different outcomes in the Bahamas:
- L Purdue, W Western Kentucky, W NC State: RPI 76
- W Purdue, L Villanova, L SMU: RPI 74
- W Purdue, L Villanova, W SMU: RPI 58
It was better for Tennessee to win today and lose the next two games than lose to Purdue and beat two lesser foes. But even if the Vols fall to Villanova and win the third place game (assuming #2 Arizona is in the finals from the other side of the bracket), the win over Purdue would ultimately create an opportunity to be 15-20 spots better in RPI by March.
There are plenty of what-ifs when you play overtime, and both teams would prefer not to turn the ball over a combined 33 times. But the Vols survived Purdue going 21-of-25 at the free throw line (while Tennessee was only 11-of-12) by grabbing a staggering 20 offensive rebounds. Nine of those came from Grant Williams and Kyle Alexander against Purdue’s tall trees.
Last year the Vols would have needed to be the team shooting 25 free throws to win a game like this. We said in our season preview Tennessee needed better offense to get better shots, because the Vols struggled to win ugly last year. In their first meaningful contest today, ugly was beautiful:
- Last year the Vols were 1-11 when shooting less than 39.5%. Today they won shooting just 36.3%.
- Last year the Vols were 3-15 when they had 15 assists or less. Today they won with 14 assists and 15 turnovers.
- And in overtime, when the game got a lot prettier, the Vols kept pace. Tennessee tied Purdue in 40 minutes of regulation in a game in the low 60’s, then beat them in five minutes of overtime played at the pace of a game in the 100’s.
And they did this against #18 Purdue, a team with legitimate Final Four aspirations coming in; the Boilermakers were 11th in KenPom coming into today.
Up next: Villanova, the number one team in the nation in KenPom coming into today.
If Purdue tested Tennessee’s readiness, Villanova will test their ceiling. The 2016 champs were 31-3 last year heading back to the tournament, but were stunned by Wisconsin 65-62 in the second round. They lost first round draft pick Josh Hart and title hero Kris Jenkins, but the rest of their crew is back.
How do you go 31-3? Last year Nova was eighth nationally in field goal percentage, second in two-point percentage, and third in free throw percentage. Then they defended without fouling, allowing just 445 free throws in 36 games (12.3 per game), the second fewest in the nation despite playing extra tournament games.
The primary test with Purdue was inside, but the opposite will be true with the Wildcats. Guards Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, and Donte DiVincenzo lead the way; those three combined for 49 of their 66 points in an eight-point win over Western Kentucky. 6’9″ Eric Paschall is also a threat. And the defending without fouling thing held up again: WKU attempted four free throws, ensuring a loss despite shooting 7-of-11 from the arc.
Take away a scoreless minute from Yves Pones, and the Vols played a 10-man rotation against Purdue. Six players did the heavy lifting, all of them veterans: the starting five of Bone, Bowden, Schofield, Williams, and Alexander all played 26-34 minutes, and Lamonte Turner added 33 off the bench while scoring 17 points. But we saw both Schofield (team-high 34 minutes) and Bone get banged up late; Schofield returned from a shoulder scare while Bone’s ankle kept him off the floor late, and it’ll be interesting to see how ready they are 24 hours later.
Turner and Williams will get the praise, but the biggest deal today was Kyle Alexander: 13 points and 11 rebounds while dealing with two seven footers from Purdue. He had two critical buckets in overtime, one of them a three. We’ll need to see more of that before we can expect it, but if Alexander can help Tennessee win big games down the stretch? That’s a big difference between last year and this one.
Purdue was a gatekeeper game; now that the Vols are through they’ll reap the strength-of-schedule benefits in a pure opportunity test against Villanova. Another golden opportunity would presumably await against #2 Arizona if Tennessee wins…but if Tennessee beats Purdue and Villanova on consecutive days, I’m not sure the bubble is the most relevant conversation. The Vols got their quality win and have given themselves a chance to make a serious upgrade in their resume with another win on Friday. Or they could beat Villanova, and we’ll start talking about loftier things.
It’s been a long autumn around here. Today was excellent. Let’s do that again.
Go Vols.
