We use Ken Pomeroy’s numbers a lot around here, and Joel writes a Four Factors preview for each contest. It’s the backbone of Pomeroy’s ratings: how well do you shoot it, how often do you turn it over, how many second chances do you give yourself via offensive rebounds, and how often do you get to the free throw line.
By far, Tennessee’s strength this season has been the way it defends: the Vols are 16th nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed. Their defense is vulnerable on the offensive glass (256th nationally) and in fouling too often (228th nationally), but the Vols do a decent job of forcing turnovers (113th).
And we also know the Vols struggle on the offensive end, more so than most teams we’ve seen around here. Tennessee is 121st overall in offensive efficiency a year after finishing third in the nation. Cuonzo Martin’s first team in 2012 is the only Vol squad to finish in triple digits in offensive efficiency this century (106th); you have to go all the way back to Kevin O’Neill’s tenure to find an offensive efficiency that was (way) worse at 278th nationally (to the surprise of no one who was watching the Vols in 1997).
But the four factor components of Tennessee’s offense aren’t all bad. The Vols are 80th nationally in getting to the line, 91st in offensive rebounds. John Fulkerson does particularly good work here, 57th nationally in free throw rate.
We know this isn’t a great shooting team. It shoots just 30.6% from the arc, with surprisingly poor performances from a number of guys we thought would do more:
- Lamonte Turner was 11-of-47 (23.4%)
- Jordan Bowden is still just 27.7% on the year after his burst at Auburn
- Yves Pons has cooled to 32.5%
- Jalen Johnson is at 31.6% off the bench
- Davonte Gaines is 3-of-18 (16.7%)
I’ll be curious to see how they develop this aspect of Josiah James’ game: he’s been the most consistent shooter this season at 36.9%, but takes just 2.9 threes per game. And Santiago Vescovi is at 37.2%, taking 5.7 per game.
We also know the Vols exclusively get good offense through good ball movement. The Vols still rank second in the nation in assist percentage, getting a dish on 64.7% of their made shots. This has been a focal point of Barnes’ offense, but the last two seasons (7th nationally in 2018, 24th in 2019) the Vols also had guys who could get their own shot when they had to have it.
This Tennessee offense, with so many moving parts, would be limited no matter what. But what’s making them historically bad is what’s cost them the last two Saturdays, the biggest culprit in keeping them off the bubble: turnovers.
Tennessee turns it over on 20.8% of its possessions, 290th nationally. In league play that number swells to 21.5%, last in the SEC. And the Vols surrender a steal on 11.6% of their possessions (12.5% in league play), which ranks 348th out of 353 Division 1 teams.
That steal percentage is the worst for any Tennessee team since 2002 (11.9%), Buzz Peterson’s first season, when the Vols lost Ron Slay to an ACL tear in mid-January and you had Thaydeus Holden and Jenis Grindstaff trying to run the show; C.J. Watson played as a true freshman the next year. Peterson’s first three teams all had a slightly higher turnover percentage as well, but that’s as far back as you have to go to find a worse turnover percentage than this year.
This is also all so frustrating because we just witnessed the best year of the KenPom era for the Vols in not turning it over: last year Tennessee gave it away on just 15.8% of its possessions, 25th nationally. You can make a really good argument that this team misses Jordan Bone more than anyone.
Some good news: C.J. Watson grew into both an NBA player and the point guard of a team that turned it over very little in Bruce Pearl’s first season (17.6%, 13th nationally). You expect freshmen to have these kinds of issues, especially a player like Santiago Vescovi who just got here in January. And Vescovi is the leading culprit when it comes to turnovers, with the Vols giving the ball away on 29.6% of the possessions he’s involved in. The other leading offenders are also freshmen. Olivier Nkamhoua turns it over 28.6% of the time, and Josiah James is at 28.9% after six costly turnovers on Saturday.
So, yeah. They’re freshmen. They’ll get better. The Vols have been close to good teams and the bubble all year, but when turnovers are your greatest weakness, it’s always going to hurt a little more because it feels like you’re doing it to yourself.
Here’s the full data for turnovers and steals in the KenPom era:
| Year | TO% | Rank | Steal % | Rank |
| 2020 | 20.8% | 290 | 11.6% | 348 |
| 2019 | 15.8% | 25 | 8.8% | 173 |
| 2018 | 17.9% | 141 | 8.2% | 113 |
| 2017 | 17.4% | 91 | 8.3% | 135 |
| 2016 | 15.8% | 32 | 8.5% | 162 |
| 2015 | 19.7% | 217 | 8.4% | 82 |
| 2014 | 16.8% | 71 | 8.4% | 103 |
| 2013 | 20.1% | 183 | 9.9% | 177 |
| 2012 | 20.5% | 204 | 10.9% | 290 |
| 2011 | 19.8% | 148 | 9.9% | 227 |
| 2010 | 19.2% | 106 | 8.6% | 71 |
| 2009 | 18.3% | 54 | 8.4% | 42 |
| 2008 | 18.1% | 27 | 7.9% | 21 |
| 2007 | 18.8% | 52 | 8.5% | 62 |
| 2006 | 17.6% | 13 | 8.5% | 39 |
| 2005 | 20.6% | 120 | 10.6% | 176 |
| 2004 | 21.7% | 181 | 11.4% | 242 |
| 2003 | 22.8% | 235 | 10.2% | 171 |
| 2002 | 23.0% | 250 | 11.9% | 279 |