The Vols dropped a tough one at Missouri, where holding the Tigers without a field goal for the last 6:47 wasn’t quite enough to overcome 24% from the arc and 62% from the free throw line. Tennessee goes to 12-5 (3-3), but a road loss to a quality team like Mizzou doesn’t hurt at all in KenPom (where the Vols remain 13th) and RPI (where the Vols are 14th).
There are eight SEC teams in the KenPom Top 50; the same eight are in the RPI Top 40. The Vols still lead the SEC in the former, while trailing Auburn and Kentucky in the latter. Just six games into conference play, the Vols have already faced five of those Top 50 teams. Only three such games remain: at Kentucky and at Alabama back-to-back in early February, and a visit from Florida on February 21.
Tennessee has ten other games between now and the SEC Tournament. In the best SEC of at least this decade, which means there is no such thing as easy. Vanderbilt has fallen out of the KenPom Top 100, but the rest of the league is in the Top 85. It will not be easy…but it will be easier.
Right now will probably be as high as Tennessee’s strength of schedule goes this season. It ranks second nationally in KenPom and fourth in RPI, where it is projected to finish 22nd. The Vols already have quality wins over Purdue and Kentucky, plus Texas A&M could still find their way back onto that list. When the case is being made for Tennessee on Selection Sunday, it will sound a lot like this.
Like last year, the Vols already have the details they need; the raw win total is all that remains between Tennessee and the bracket. Last year the Vols got in the bracket conversation with their 12th win, beating Kansas State four days after knocking off #4 Kentucky. The difference: last year the Vols started 12-9. This year they were 12-4 before falling at Mizzou.
Anxiety about getting in is easy to understand after missing both the NCAA and NIT the last three years. RPI Forecast suggests the Vols would be in business there at 18-12 (8-10 or 9-9 with a loss at Iowa State). But Tennessee’s resume to this point – not just the strength of schedule but the quality wins with no bad losses – suggests we can dream a little bigger.
Coming through this front-loaded portion of the SEC schedule at 3-3 keeps Tennessee’s pre-conference goals alive: compete for the league title, and earn a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. When it comes to seeding, eight or better is great for getting through the first round, but what you really want is six or better to stay away from the truly elite teams in the second round. The Vols may not be one of those truly elite teams themselves, but everything we’ve seen from this team against this schedule so far makes me think Tennessee can be a 4-6 seed. Most of the Bracket Matrix agrees.
After facing so many good teams in the first 17 games in building their case, the challenge in these final 13 games becomes consistency. That starts at South Carolina on Saturday, 68th in KenPom fresh off a win over Kentucky. The Gamecocks are the worst shooting team in league play, but are first at getting to the free throw line (thanks in large part to FoulFest 2018 against Kentucky on Tuesday) and first in offensive rebounds. We could say it’s another game where effort will be essential, but again, that’s every night now in this league. The Vols have been good enough to build a high-seed resume against one of the nation’s most difficult schedules. Now can they be consistent enough to get the rest of the way there?