Welcome to March.
Ric Flair turned 70 this week (woo). So yes, to be the man, you’ve gotta beat the man. And yes, generally speaking, Kentucky gets to be the man in the SEC until someone else takes it from them on a regular basis.
But it’s also true that the Vols are defending SEC Champions, 3-0 against the Cats in Knoxville under Rick Barnes, and 7-4 in the last 11 meetings at Thompson-Boling.
LSU is certainly still alive in the conference race; they’ll have to earn it in Tuscaloosa and Gainesville down the stretch. But Tennessee and Kentucky are playing for something more. Only one can earn a one seed. After what happened in Lexington, and because the Cats are the Cats, Tennessee must go through Kentucky. But after what has happened on a regular basis for more than a decade in this building, Kentucky must go through Knoxville.
No game will impact Tennessee’s fate in the bracket more than this one.
So much of Tennessee’s resume is in the fall of 2018. It’s not just Gonzaga on December 9; in KenPom, Tennessee’s second-best win is Louisville on November 21. Its overtime loss to Kansas was two days later.
KenPom still loves Mississippi State (20th) and Auburn (16th), Tennessee’s opponents next week. But ye olde Bracket Matrix, not so much: the Bulldogs are a six seed, the Tigers an eight. Those are wins to shore up an argument for a number one seed. But to have the argument at all, the Vols have to beat Kentucky.
Gonzaga is atop the NET ratings, and unless Pacific (#220 KenPom) or St. Mary’s (#34, but lost 94-46 when last they met) want to do something about it, the Bulldogs should be a lock for the one seed in Anaheim. Gonzaga might have the best offense of the century in college basketball, but still can’t overtake Virginia in KenPom. The Cavaliers, whose only crime is losing to Duke by two in Durham and by 13 threes in Charlottesville, finishes with Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Louisville. They’re a one seed.
And then, over the next nine days, you’ve got Kentucky at Tennessee, Duke at North Carolina, and Michigan at Michigan State.
If the Tar Heels – 23-5 with every loss to a Top 30 team – sweep the Blue Devils, you’ll have to consider putting them on the top line. If Duke wins, with or without Zion, it’ll only confirm everyone’s suspicion that they are, in fact, the highest ceiling in the bracket. One of those teams is a one seed.
How will the committee view the Big Ten challengers from Michigan and Michigan State? NET is not their ally, with the Spartans sixth and the Wolverines ninth. I think the Kentucky/Tennessee winner will have a more compelling case atop the bracket.
Somebody is going to Kansas City unwillingly, of course. If you pencil in Gonzaga in Anaheim and Virginia in Washington, is it as simple as the winner of Duke/North Carolina and the winner of Tennessee/Kentucky, with the committee’s choice going to Louisville?
Here’s the other thing: no teams from the same conference can be the 1 and 2 seed in the same region. If Duke and UVA are ones in Washington and Louisville, North Carolina is likely going to Kansas City. If you’re the Vols, would you rather:
- Be the one seed in Kansas City with North Carolina at #2
- Be the two seed in Louisville with Duke or Virginia at #1
Driving distance is nice, but that’s an easy call for me. If we’re going to see Duke or Virginia, I’d like it to be in Minneapolis, not trying to get there.
I’m sure something crazy will happen between now and Selection Sunday to blow all this up. But if Tennessee wants to be in the conversation at all, it has to beat Kentucky.
Learn, Don’t Burn
That feeling of, “Man, we didn’t play well and we’re only down six at halftime, and we’re still the number one team in the country,” from Rupp Arena feels like a while ago, though ’twas only 13 nights earlier. Here’s the worst-of-the-year list from that game, revisited:
- The Vols had 11 assists at Kentucky, which was immediately “topped” with only 10 in Baton Rouge
- The Vols blocked one (1) shot, a season low. Kentucky blocked six, a season high allowed.
- Kentucky shot 54.7%
- The Cats had 33 free throw attempts, joining Kansas (34) and LSU (31) as the only teams to get 30+ this year and, of course, beat the Vols
And here’s what’s still true for our friends from the Bluegrass:
- When Kentucky shoots at least 28% from three, the Cats are 21-0. When they don’t, they’re 3-4.
- When opponents shoot at least 21 free throws, the Cats are 0-3. When they don’t, they’re 24-1.
For all of these reasons, and the general tone of being punched in the face in Lexington, this will be a toughness win. Is Tennessee tough enough to be the aggressor against the Cats this time? Can the Vols run their offense, which all season has involved great ball movement with paint touches, against Kentucky’s size and athleticism? Can the Vols be mentally tough enough to not allow a team to shoot above its average from three?
The ceiling this team earned in December will now be tested, as it should be, in March. Anything can happen in the NCAA Tournament. But if the Vols want to get there via an SEC title and a one seed? Kentucky must go through Knoxville. Tennessee must go through Kentucky. Wouldn’t have it any other way.
Saturday, 2:00 PM, CBS. Go Vols.
