If your patience is wearing thin with the present and future of Tennessee football, may I suggest turning some of your attention to Rick Barnes’ squad? Because this year’s team will have the opportunity to serve as more than just a distraction.
The last three years featured low expectations quickly rising to heights they could not sustain:
- 2015: Started 12-5 (4-1), finished 16-16 (7-11)
- 2016: Started 12-12 (5-6), finished 15-19 (6-12)
- 2017: Started 14-10 (6-5), finished 16-16 (8-10)
Donnie Tyndall’s squad was just starting to make national noise by winning eight-of-nine between December 6 and January 20, but close wins became close losses became blowouts. Rick Barnes’ first team came from 21 down to beat Kentucky and beat Bruce Pearl by 26 on the first two Tuesdays of February to put the NIT on the horizon, but an injury to Kevin Punter ended the threat. And last year the Vols were in the Bracket Matrix field after a February 8 win over Ole Miss, but an injury to Robert Hubbs was no help in dropping five of the next six. As such, the last three years have threatened to surprise but all ended in the SEC Tournament. This is Tennessee’s longest drought without making the NCAA Tournament or the NIT since 1993-95.
The latter is a good expectation for this year’s team, which lost Hubbs and fan-favorite Lew Evans to graduation and Shembari Phillips and Kwe Parker to transfer. But these Vols will showcase legitimate depth for the first time under Rick Barnes:
- Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, Jordan Bone, and Kyle Alexander all return.
- John Fulkerson is back from a gruesome elbow injury which cost him two-thirds of last year, and Jalen Johnson is active following a redshirt season.
- The Vols added junior college transfer Chris Darrington and graduate transfer James Daniel to the backcourt.
- Freshmen Derrick Walker and Zach Kent give depth in the post, and 6’5″ Yves Pons came from France to dunk on people.
I wouldn’t expect the Vols to actually go 13-deep, but it will be interesting to see how the rotation shapes up early (and how quickly it can be established). Beyond Grant Williams and probably Admiral Schofield, it’s anyone’s guess where a majority of Tennessee’s productivity will come from. But this is the best group of options the Vols have had since that 2014 tournament run. We’ll begin to see how they look in an exhibition against Carson-Newman at 7:00 PM tonight.
Never mind that whole picked 13th by the SEC media thing. Tennessee starts the year 43rd in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, sixth in the SEC. While I haven’t seen the Vols show up in any bracketologies yet, if you made one strictly using KenPom Tennessee would be in the field, narrowly avoiding Dayton. And if you enjoyed the Cuonzo Martin era, rejoice: I would expect this is the kind of season we’re in for.
After three years of having to wait until January to even think about the bubble, this season you can have those conversations right away. Whether the Vols ultimately get on the dance floor or not, the larger point is this: if you anticipate being that close, every single one of these games will matter. And this year it won’t be something we realized later, but a truth from the opening tip.
That’s next Friday against Presbyterian (341 out of 351 in KenPom), followed by a visit from High Point on November 14. Then opportunity knocks hard in Nassau: the Vols get #20 Purdue in the Battle 4 Atlantis opener. A loss still helps your RPI and probably gets you a date with Western Kentucky. But a win not only puts Purdue in your bank account, it probably gets you a shot at #6 Villanova (#3 Arizona is on the other side of the bracket).
While we’re waiting for meaningful outcomes in football again, these games will matter right away. And the end result should be better than we’ve seen the last three seasons. Life on the bubble is stressful, but every night matters. I’m looking forward to having that dynamic back.
