Tennessee basketball has come to the aid of Tennessee football at critical junctures twice in the last dozen years. When the football Vols stumbled in the fall of 2005, missing a bowl for the first time since 1988, Bruce Pearl’s first team turned in a two seed in the NCAA Tournament. I remember him saying something like, “This basketball team got us through the winter,” and he was right. And when Lane Kiffin left in the middle of a January night in 2010, Pearl took the Vols to the Elite Eight two months later. I remember Brent Hubbs on the radio, in the immediate aftermath of the Derek Dooley hire, saying something like, “I think Tennessee is a basketball school for a little while.” And he was right.
These last two weeks were a mess for Tennessee football, one that threatened to end up a whole lot worse than having Jeremy Pruitt as head coach and Phillip Fulmer as athletic director. In the midst of such turmoil, it appears Tennessee basketball was once again ready to carry the fan base. Even better, then, is football carrying positive momentum forward while basketball capitalizes on its own moment.
That big stage moment is coming in nine days, when football can (possibly) introduce a head football coach and wow recruits on the final day before the dead period, while basketball hosts North Carolina in a sold-out (and checkered) Thompson-Boling Arena. All that stands between now and then is Lipscomb at 2:15 PM tomorrow.
Like Mercer, Lipscomb is no cupcake: the Bisons are 128th in KenPom and join Florida Gulf Coast as the runaway favorites in the Atlantic Sun. Though bested by Alabama and Texas by a combined 55 points, Lipscomb beat Belmont twice by a combined 23 points.
The Bisons will go, currently playing the 10th fastest pace in college basketball while averaging 76.6 points per game. That number jumps up to 81.1 if you take out the games against Alabama and Texas; hopefully the Vols will have similar success slowing them down. Tennessee was able to do so against NC State’s faster tempo, but Lipscomb (and then North Carolina) will be an even quicker challenge. And unlike Mercer, Lipscomb won’t face the Vols without their best player: 6’5″ guard Garrison Mathews is averaging 19.6 points while shooting 45.1% from the arc.
The Vols could get caught looking ahead here. But I would rely on what Tennessee is already doing so well this season (numbers from KenPom and Sports Reference):
- Tennessee is 18th in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive ratings (and 21st in KenPom overall). The Vols are 29th in opponent field goal percentage allowed and eighth nationally in two-point field goal percentage allowed. Other than Villanova, no team has shot better than 38.9% against Tennessee.
- The Vols are 11th nationally in three-point shooting (!) at 42.6%. Tennessee is 301st nationally in threes attempted, averaging 21.1 per game. This shows Tennessee isn’t forcing things, but getting really good looks (and knocking them down) out of their offense. Jordan Bowden continues to lead the way here, shooting an absurd 64% from the arc on 16-of-25. But Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bone, and Admiral Schofield all also shoot between 42-44% from three.
- Tennessee is 24th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (37.2%, a big reason they’re rated so highly in KenPom) despite playing a bunch of guys under 6’8″ plus 20 minutes of Kyle Alexander. The 6’11” junior had 57 offensive rebounds in 2016-17. He already has 25 in seven games this season. His maturation is one of the most important storylines to this Tennessee team.
- In seven games, the Vols have only had 15 of their shots blocked. That’s 5.5% of their shot attempts, the 21st best percentage in the nation. Again: good offense creates great shot selection.
It’s not just North Carolina but the SEC that will test the Vols. The league has four teams (including Tennessee) in the KenPom Top 25 and another four in the Top 50. There will be plenty of chances to see exactly how good Tennessee is. But the Vols are already well-versed in strength of schedule, and look like a threat to not just be ranked for a couple weeks as a nice story, but stay in the poll for the long haul.
To do that, and to play their way to the big stage next weekend, they’ll need to go through Lipscomb. 2:15 PM ET Saturday on the SEC Network. It is a joy to have hope in both football and basketball.
Go Vols.
