Tennessee is capable of winning in so many different ways, it’s hard to create a formula for their success. Last year assists were the go-to stat: the only way the Vols were getting good offense was through good ball movement, and if that didn’t happen they didn’t defend well enough to make up the difference. Tennessee is still strong here (12th nationally in assist percentage, fourth among power conference teams), but that stat is less predictive of success this season: the Vols beat Purdue and South Carolina while assisting on less than half of their makes.
But that stat informs what has become Tennessee’s other leading indicator of success: three-point shooting.
The Vols don’t rely on the three the way more and more teams are doing. Tennessee is 291st nationally in three-pointers attempted, averaging 20.4 per game. But the Vols are 55th nationally in percentage, hitting 38.3% from three on the year. Threes are a function of the offense, not the offense itself, and Tennessee hits a higher percentage largely because their ball movement generates good looks.
Of the five players who average at least two attempts per game, only Lamonte Turner shoots less than 37%. There’s been plenty of talk about Jordan Bowden shooting more (still at 51.7% on the year despite an 0-for-7 stretch last week), but Tennessee’s patience is one of the reasons he’s shooting so well to begin with. James Daniel (37.5%), Jordan Bone (40.5%), and Admiral Schofield (43.4%) are all reliable targets as well.
Good ball movement leads to more assists, especially when you’ve got such a productive option in the paint in Grant Williams. And more of those assists are coming because the Vols are getting and hitting open threes.
The two best predictors of Tennessee’s success, then:
- The Vols are 9-0 when at least 64% of their made baskets come off an assist, 4-5 when they don’t.
- The Vols are 10-1 when shooting at least 36.4% from three, 3-4 when they don’t.
And the one can cover the sins of the other. Two of Tennessee’s lowest assist percentage wins were at Vanderbilt (43.3%) and South Carolina (43.5%). But the Vols shot 53.8% from the arc in Nashville and 45.5% in Columbia. Likewise, the Vols shot just 29.4% from the arc against Texas A&M and 36.4% against Kentucky, but assisted on 64% of their made shots against the Aggies and a staggering 92% against the Wildcats.
And when all else fails, the Vols can still win with defense: Tennessee was average in both against Purdue (39.1% from the arc, 48.3% assist percentage), but held the Boilermakers to 37.3% from the floor and got the win in overtime.
A dozen games remain in the regular season; there’s plenty of time for three-point shooting to go up or down. But this continues to be a well-coached team that gets shots they like, and knocks them down at a winning rate.
