Very, as it turns out. That’s where the Vols would be with a win tomorrow.
By my count, only seven SEC teams have started 8-0 in league play since 2000. Kentucky did it in 2003, 2005, 2012, and 2015. Florida did it in 2007, 2013, and 2014. Every one of those teams made the Elite Eight, four made the Final Four, and two won it all.
More rare in the SEC is a 20-1 start overall. Since 2000, John Calipari’s Kentucky teams have done it thrice:
- The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins 2010 team, which started 27-1 before losing at Tennessee on February 27. They lost in the Elite Eight.
- The Anthony Davis 2012 team, which started 32-1 before losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament finals. They won the title.
- The undefeated 2015 team, which started 38-0 before losing to Wisconsin in the Final Four.
There’s also a team I’d forgotten: the 2004 Mississippi State Bulldogs started 21-1 and finished the regular season 25-2 with a one-point loss to Kentucky and a four-point loss to Alabama. They lost to Vanderbilt by four in overtime in the first game of the SEC Tournament. Still, they earned a two seed as SEC Champions…and lost to Xavier in the second round by 15. Sometimes the story just doesn’t end the way you want it to. But if you’re looking for another example of how special this season is, consider that no Florida team in this century – a program with two titles, two other Final Four appearances, and four additional Elite Eight appearances since 2000 – has ever started a season 20-1.
Tennessee isn’t the only team with an easier path to the SEC title
Plenty of word count has been spilled for Tennessee’s back-loaded schedule, still two weeks away. The current average KenPom of Tennessee’s first 11 SEC opponents: 85.1. The current average of six of Tennessee’s final seven SEC opponents: 19.8 (plus the second game with Vanderbilt).
There was some thought that the Vols would be so far ahead of the pack through those first 11 games, it wouldn’t much matter. But two things have happened over the last couple weeks: Kentucky really got its act together, and LSU kept winning.
The Wildcats are now eighth in KenPom and a two seed in the Bracket Matrix; those two games should be the showdown we expected all along. But keep an eye on LSU, especially because of their schedule. Among these three contenders, here are the teams each one plays twice:
- Tennessee: Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt
- Kentucky: Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
- LSU: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas A&M
There’s clear separation in the difficulty of Kentucky’s league schedule and Tennessee’s. But LSU’s is the real gift: the Tigers don’t play any of the league’s top five teams in the Bracket Matrix twice (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, plus LSU themselves). They’re already 7-0 and could put up a really big number; KenPom projects the Vols to win the league at 15-3, but LSU’s projection is just one game behind.
For history, for what could be a surprisingly-tight league chase, and for the all-important one seeds…every game still counts. On to the Aggies.
Relegated to the Bottom
Last year Texas A&M started 11-1, its only loss to Arizona. They were sixth in KenPom. And then they started league play 0-5.
They got healthy and rallied, winning seven of their last ten to earn a seven seed in the NCAA Tournament. They shocked North Carolina in the second round with a 21-point win, then got rocked by Michigan in the Sweet 16 by 27.
And then everyone left, especially everyone tall. 6’10” Robert Williams is with the Boston Celtics, 6’10” Tyler Davis also turned pro early, and 6’10” Tonny Trocha-Morelos graduated. Guard Duane Wilson also graduated, and 6’9″ DJ Hogg is in the G-League. Then guard Admon Gilder, who was supposed to lead this team, had a blood clot issue that has sidelined him for the entire season.
So, yeah: the Aggies are 8-11 (1-6), though they did beat Kansas State in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge last weekend. But they are part of a fast-growing basement in the league this year, victimized by injury to their best players (Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M) and the success of the rest of the league. The SEC could be starting to see some of what happens in the ACC regularly: when the top 70% of your league is so good, the bottom tier can look really bad. I’d imagine you can get really good odds, if they exist, on the first day of the SEC Tournament featuring Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Georgia. Those four are currently 3-25 in league play.
Texas A&M is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in college basketball: 28.5%, 341st nationally, and 26.2% in SEC play. They also give up the highest percentage from the arc (37.1%) in league play. That’s a quick and easy recipe for disaster. Because of their lack of size they also get pounded on the glass, and are 345th in giving up blocked shots. All of this is bad news when playing the number one team in the country.
They do defend well without fouling, best in the SEC so far in that department. If they can take the free throw line away from Tennessee, perhaps there’s a path to keeping it interesting. But this one just looks like it has bad news written all over it for Texas A&M.
It’s a later start than what we’ve been playing: Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN. Here’s hoping February treats us well.
Go Vols.
