Not only is this the highest-ranked match-up between the Vols and Cats in their 224-game history, it’s also one of just three top five match-ups in the history of Tennessee basketball. No hyperbole necessary for this one: the facts are good enough.
Overconfident Tennessee Teams Go to Rupp Arena to Die
Last year the Vols earned their third win in Rupp since 1980, joining 1999 and 2006. The last two times the Vols won in Lexington, really good things were on the way for the program. But each time those good things were also humbled in their return to Rupp:
- In 2000 the Vols went to Rupp at 18-2 (6-1), ranked sixth in the nation. Kentucky was 14th. The Cats won by 13.
- In 2001 the Vols went to Rupp at 16-1 (3-0), ranked fourth. Kentucky was unranked. The Cats won by 10.
- In 2008 the Vols went to Rupp at 16-1 (3-0), ranked third. Kentucky was unranked. The Cats won by six.
History says you shouldn’t assume when Tennessee is the higher-ranked team, especially when the Cats are also top five material. This wouldn’t be the first Vol squad with championship aspirations to take a step back in Lexington.
What would it look like to take a step forward?
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The thing Tennessee is very best at is still shot-blocking: third nationally in fewest blocks allowed by percentage, sixth in shot blocking on the other end of the floor. It’s an advantage we’re more accustomed to a team like Kentucky having. So what will that look like when it’s actually the Cats on the other end of the floor?
Kentucky eats eight percent of its shots, 84th nationally. That’s better than last year, but still worse than their numbers from 2014-17. Those teams all had an elite interior presence: Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, Marcus Lee, and Bam Adebayo. P.J. Washington and Reid Travis are strong on the offensive glass – more on that in a second – but not quite the interior presence of their predecessors.
A note here on the way Rick Barnes got around some of that elite size by attacking it with quicker bigs:
- 2016 Knoxville: Armani Moore 18 points, 13 rebounds
- 2016 Lexington: Armani Moore 21 points, 11 rebounds
- 2017 Knoxville: Admiral Schofield 15 points, 7 rebounds off the bench
- 2017 Lexington: Admiral Schofield 17 points, 7 rebounds off the bench
- 2018 Knoxville: Admiral Schofield 20 points, 9 rebounds
- 2018 Lexington: Admiral Schofield 12 points, 6 rebounds
- 2018 SEC Tournament: Admiral Schofield 22 points, 10 rebounds
Moore and Schofield are averaging 17.8 points and 9 rebounds against Kentucky. Schofield has become such a threat from the arc (41.1%), I’m curious to see how it will affect this part of Tennessee’s game plan.
But inside the arc, one huge factor for this game: how will it be officiated? Tennessee hasn’t been great at getting to the free throw line in league play (11th in free throw rate), but it’s still a huge part of Grant Williams’ game. Can the Vols be strong inside and get #2 to the free throw line at Rupp? What happens if they can’t? What happens if Tennessee finds itself in foul trouble?
A big magic number for beating Kentucky: teams are 3-0 when attempting more than 20 free throws against the Cats, but only Alabama won when attempting less (17). Duke got there 29 times, Seton Hall 26 (with overtime), LSU 22.
Tennessee always had the horses to score inside, but they’ve improved as a jump-shooting team in ways we didn’t count on. The Vols use great ball movement to essentially eliminate bad shots from their offense, and knock down that free throw line jumper like nobody’s business. The Vols shoot 57.7% inside the arc, fifth nationally. Sooner or later it’s not going to fall, and the Vols will need to win with defense. But at Kentucky, I’m not sure that would be enough. The way you typically beat this team is to get to the line. Perhaps when you’re number one, you beat teams however you like…but we haven’t won at Rupp Arena nearly enough for me to believe in new rules just yet.
Another question Rick Barnes will have to answer: does Tennessee send more bodies to keep Kentucky off the offensive glass, or will the Vols still try to get out and go? Tennessee plays way faster than Kentucky, but its success isn’t directly tied to keeping the other team off the offensive glass. The fewest offensive rebounds Tennessee has allowed this year is five. One was in the 46-point beat-down of Georgia. But the other was in the overtime win at Vanderbilt.
Then there’s the three-point shooting. The Vols are allowing 36.8% from the arc in league play, next-to-last in the SEC. It’s an amazing stat considering the Vols are 11-0. Kentucky is shooting 35.7% in league play, fifth-best. But here’s a stat that’s almost identical to last year for the Cats:
- 2018: 24-3 when shooting at least 29% from three, 2-8 when not
- 2019: 17-0 when shooting at least 28% from three, 3-4 when not
The Vols were one of those three losses last year (7-of-19, 36.8% in Knoxville), but the Cats cleaned it up to 7-of-16 (43.8%) in their SEC Tournament win. Kentucky doesn’t take enough threes to say they rely on them, but they also don’t need to make very many to push their abundance of talent over the edge.
So, as you’d imagine, the Vols need to defend the three better, keep Kentucky from dominating the offensive glass, and get a whistle conducive to being the more dominant team at the rim (a position we’re especially not used to in Rupp). Tennessee beat Kentucky once last year by getting to the free throw line (18-of-24 in Knoxville) and once because the Cats went cold from three (3-of-14 in Lexington). The Vols can survive one of those numbers going against them, but still probably not both.
There’s a ton of basketball left to be played here. Tennessee still needs help to win the argument vs Duke for the number one overall seed. But beyond that? I don’t think there’s anything, from the other one seeds to the SEC Championship, where Tennessee still won’t control its own destiny even with a loss here. There’s a version of Duke that just beats everybody. But aside from that, I’m not sure Tennessee will face a stiffer challenge than trying to beat this Kentucky team in Lexington. We’re already number one, and with Kentucky also in the top five you shouldn’t have to adjust expectations too much regardless of outcome. So for at least one night, the biggest prize to be won might be the sort of exclamation point in this rivalry I’m not sure I’ve ever seen from the Vols. Tennessee plays Kentucky again in two weeks. But if the Vols go to 5-3 against the Cats under Barnes, 3-1 in the last four, and two straight in Rupp Arena? While ranked number one? You’re talking about, in the moment, a level of separation between Tennessee and Kentucky that hasn’t existed in my lifetime.
Might as well add it to the list.
