Let’s return to a question we posed before the Kentucky game: would you rather be the one seed in Kansas City, or the two seed in Louisville?
I’m not worried about the difference between playing a 15 or 16 seed, or even the potential quality of opponent in the Sweet 16. If Tennessee is trying to make its first Final Four and win the national championship, you want the easiest path to get there. And while we’ll break down the bracket as soon as it’s released like everyone else, in the advanced stats world, three teams have separated themselves at the top: Virginia, and the full-strength versions of Gonzaga and Duke.
They’re 1-2-3 everywhere you look, with the exception of the AP and Coaches Polls. North Carolina is third in both of those, set for a rematch with probably-full-strength #4 Duke on Saturday. The head-to-head police applaud the Tar Heels being ranked above the Blue Devils for now. We’ll see if that holds.
But everywhere else – Bracket Matrix, KenPom, NET, and Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology – Virginia, Gonzaga, and Duke are 1-2-3 in some order.
In KenPom, those three teams are somewhere between a 6-8 point favorite against Tennessee on a neutral floor. The Vols are currently seventh in KenPom, but within one possession of the other three teams in front of them (and the next four behind them). When we get closer to Selection Sunday, we can argue for Tennessee’s resume – which is outstanding, by the way, and with the win over Kentucky now includes another elite victory to go with the two overtime losses and Rupp Arena bullet point. Tennessee deserves to be ranked higher than they are right now, and I can make a plenty good argument that they deserve that fourth one seed.
But if we’re talking about ratings instead of rankings? Virginia and full-strength Gonzaga and Duke have separated themselves from the field. Those are the only three teams that would be more than a push against Tennessee. If we’re trying to survive and advance? I’d like to see those three teams in the Final Four, and not before. And the best way to do that is to grab that last one seed.
I think Tennessee’s odds of getting to Minneapolis are higher as the one seed in Kansas City than the two seed with a short drive to Louisville, if that drive ends with facing Virginia or Duke in the Elite Eight. Let’s be clear: we’re trying to win the national championship, which could very well mean going through those teams eventually. But when we’re also trying to make the Final Four for the first time ever? Let’s save it for Minneapolis.
The good news for Tennessee: I think they control their own destiny for that last one seed.
A Rick Barnes vs Ben Howland Showdown of Old
Fun fact: Barnes beat the Russell Westbrook/Kevin Love UCLA team at Texas.
It took Howland an extra year to get here, but Mississippi State is a six seed and climbing in the latest Bracket Matrix. The Bulldogs started 12-1 with an impressive set of non-conference wins (St. Mary’s, Clemson, Cincinnati, and the last team to beat Wofford on December 19). Then they opened conference play with an overtime loss to South Carolina and a four point loss to an Ole Miss team we still weren’t sure of. Since then they’ve gone 9-5, including two losses to Kentucky and an overtime loss to LSU. They ripped off five straight wins over lower-tier SEC foes before falling at Auburn 80-75 on Saturday. Their most impressive road win is at Ole Miss (who returned the favor in Starkville), but they lost at South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn.
Tennessee blew out this team in late February last season on the road behind 24 points from Admiral Schofield, then got a much tougher challenge in the SEC Tournament before prevailing 62-59.
This is another good offensive team, led by Quindary Weatherspoon and fueled by what Lamar Peters gives them from the point. 6’10” Aric Holman is back and joined by 6’10” freshman Reggie Perry, who has been great on the offensive glass. The Bulldogs as a team are 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage and 36th in effective field goal percentage, shooting it well inside and outside the arc.
They also lead the league in blocks and steals, but have been victimized by the three ball (36.6% allowed, 12th worst in the league). When they create chaos, they win: 15-2 when they force at least 13 turnovers (with losses to LSU and Kentucky), 6-6 when they don’t.
The Vols will need to be clean, and they’ll need to be good defensively again. This will be the fourth Top 20 offense the Vols have faced this season, and Auburn will make five on Saturday. For Tennessee to earn that last one seed, the defense we saw against Kentucky must become the rule.
Just like they drew it up for a critical final week battle: 9:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.
