We’ve said it plenty of times this year: with the exception of seven seed UConn in 2014, every national champion of the KenPom era has had a Top 20 offense and defense (original story from the SB Nation Villanova blog last February). In the last week of the regular season, seven teams hit that criteria: Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina, Michigan, and Kentucky.
The Vols don’t have a Top 20 defense, haven’t for most of the season, and plunged into the 50’s after the loss at Kentucky.
After last night’s 71-54 win over Mississippi State? The defense still isn’t Top 20.
But it is 21st.
It started with a strong defensive performance against Vanderbilt; the offense didn’t sing in a 58-46 win, but the Commodores shot 32.1% from the floor. Still, that was Vandy, winless in SEC play. Then the Vols lost at LSU in overtime; the Tigers were without Tremont Waters, which makes it hard to judge, and though they only shot 38.5% from the floor, they got to the free throw line 700 31 times. Then Ole Miss buried a ton of tough threes, hitting 9-of-23 (39.1%) from the arc in another close game.
The defense was better, but it was tough to tell. But the last two games, against two of the best teams Tennessee has played all year? Kentucky shot 31.8%, their lowest total of the year. Second-lowest: 39.1% against Kansas. Mississippi State shot 33.3%, their second-lowest total of the year (31.1% at Rupp).
Via Sports-Reference, In the first 25 games of the season, the Vols allowed 39.7% from the floor and 33.4% from the arc. In the last five games – four against offenses rating in the Top 35 in KenPom – the Vols have allowed 35.7% from the floor and 31.1% from the arc.
And here’s what’s pushing Tennessee over the top. You know how all year we’ve been saying the Vols traded creating turnovers in 2018 for blocked shots in 2019 (still a thing they’re great at, ninth nationally in shot-blocking percentage and third in shot-blocking percentage allowed)? In the last two games, Kentucky turned it over 16 times with eight Tennessee steals, then Mississippi State gave it away 17 times with a dozen (!) Tennessee steals, a season high.
If there was a switch, apparently Rupp Arena flipped it, and the rematch taped it to the on position. Kentucky was playing without Reid Travis, to be fair, so I know we can’t hang everything on beating a team by 19 that beat us by 17. But Mississippi State is a five seed in the Bracket Matrix…and the Vols obliterated them.
Nevermind any concern about the Vols peaking too soon. This is their best basketball, right on time.
