Two weeks ago today, we talked about how progress was the expectation, and how much would be the fun part. More important than the difference between 6-6 and 7-5 would be how the team performed play-for-play a year after losing six games by four-plus possessions. Preseason projections from SP+ had the Vols within two possessions of every opponent except Alabama; FPI had the Vols within one possession of every opponent except the Tide.

The last two weeks have changed the conversation considerably. Even if the Vols fought their way back to 5-7 – which feels like an accomplishment from here, as our expected win totals this week are hovering around 3.45 – there is, of course, an actual difference between 5-7 and 6-6. Coming that close to bowl eligibility at the end of November would make us re-live the pain of the BYU loss.

Progress may be best measured now not in the distance to the top, but the distance from the bottom. That being the case, there’s an even more compelling argument to focus on what this team does on every snap…because there is still plenty of opportunity to be far more competitive this season.

In that department, you’re going to want to believe in FPI more than SP+. Tennessee’s projected margin of victory after this week:

Both models have the Vols favored only against UAB and Vanderbilt after this Saturday, where Tennessee’s line is about where it opened against Georgia State. FPI’s current projection has in part become SP+’s preseason projection: two-score losses to Florida and Georgia, a third squeaking by with Missouri at -8.6, but generally competitive in every other non-Alabama game.

Obviously, a 4-8 season isn’t going to be viewed as an overall success. It’s hard to re-calibrate expectations after a huge upset; it would’ve been interesting to see how the 2016 Vols were received if they beat Vanderbilt to earn a Sugar Bowl bid at 9-3, but still gave away the SEC East after losing to the Gamecocks at -14.5.

Still, week to week what this team (and its fans) need is the idea that Tennessee can compete. We’ll learn a lot about that against Florida. With a win against Chattanooga, the Vols can technically still carry the bowl eligibility conversation to the South Carolina game, with any win before then incredibly helpful. Between now and then, if the Vols can be relatively competitive with Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi State, it will not only be an important sign of progress, it will keep more fans in Neyland Stadium and invested wherever we find ourselves.

The last two weeks are a great reminder that we never know exactly what’s going to happen week to week. It’s a really tough road to six wins now. But the kind of progress that keeps people invested is still available. We’ll see what signs of life show up against Chattanooga.

The SPM finished Week 2 at a disappointing 21-24 (46.67%) on all games. Above what is usually a magic confidence level, it went 10-14 (41.67%) and within the usual magic confidence range, it still lost at 3-4 (42.86%). The tweak last week was pulling out all of the games involving FCS opponents. This week, we’ll be putting those back in but monitoring them separately. I still suspect they’re mostly junk or luck.

For the season so far, the SPM is 49-51 (49%) overall, 30-27 (52.63%) over the confidence threshold, and 16-8 (66.67%) within the confidence range.

Although it wasn’t at all confident about the game, the SPM did (barely) win the Tennessee-BYU game, saying the Vols wouldn’t cover the three-point spread. With the Big Orange hosting FCS Chattanooga this week, I’m pressing the button with the full intent of disregarding everything it spits out, but let’s take a look to see what it says.

Tennessee vs. Chattanooga

Yep. The Mocs haven’t played a game against an FBS opponent yet this year, and the only one they played last year was against South Carolina. That means that there’s only one good comp and that it’s a bit stale to boot. With the SPM pitching a fit about insufficient information, I’m going to look both at its results and my own analysis of that game in more detail manually.

In the Chattanooga-South Carolina game last year, the Mocs ran for 78 yards, threw for 256 yards, and scored 9 points. They gave up 238 yards rushing, 364 yards passing, and 49 points to the Gamecocks.

South Carolina’s run, pass, and scoring offense last year were 152.8, 272.8, and 30.1, so against the FCS Mocs they basically got 90 yards more than their average both on the ground and through the air, plus an additional 19 points.

The Gamecocks’ run, pass, and scoring defense last year were 195.3, 229, and 27.2, which means they held the FCS Mocs to less than half of what they usually give up on the ground but actually gave up more passing yardage than they did on average against their entire season-slate. They did hold Chattanooga to one-third of the points they usually gave up last season.

How does 2018 Tennessee compare to 2018 South Carolina? The Vols’ run, pass, and scoring offense last year were 129.1, 196.4, and 22.8. So, not nearly as good on the ground, a little less potent through the air, and about 5 points behind on the scoreboard, compared to the Gamecocks.

On the defensive side, the Vols’ run, pass, and scoring defense last year were 154.5, 222.9, and 27.9. That’s basically the same as the 2018 Gamecocks, but better stopping the run.

SPM Final Estimates

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 59.8, Chattanooga 9

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -50.8

SPM Confidence level: 22.8

Eyeball adjustments

As I said before, much of the actual SPM output for this week is suspect because there’s only one stale comp. It also still includes an assumed improvement for Tennessee in 2019 over 2018, an assumption that at present appears to be incorrect.

Accounting for all of that, here are my best eyeball-adjusted estimates for Tennessee-Chattanooga:

• Rushing Yards: Mocs 70, Vols 200
• Passing Yards: Mocs 250, Vols 320
• Points: Mocs 9, Vols 45

Other predictions from other systems

The Vegas line is between Tennessee -24 and Tennessee -28 with an over/under of 51.5. That basically translates to something like Tennessee 40, Chattanooga 12.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 40-11 and gives the Vols a 95% chance of winning. Connelly was 59% overall in Week 1 and 54% in Week 2. I’m not sure how this adds up (must be missing something), but a recent tweet says that for the season he’s 50% overall and 63% in his confidence zone.

As I said above, the season results for our SPM are 49% overall, 52.63% over our confidence threshold, and 66.67% within our confidence range.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 97.7% chance of winning.

Bottom line

Will the Vols cover -28 this weekend? I think the SPM is too high, but I still say yes.

What are y’all thinking?

It’s only the third week of the 2019 college football season, and the Vols ease out of unconsciousness at the bottom of a hole wondering how they got there. But before they can climb out, they first must take care of Chattanooga, who must be wondering whether they can make magic against an unsteady and rattled Tennessee team.

Here’s when and where to find the games that matter to Vols fans this week, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them. First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Friday, September 13, 2019

Hey, if you’re just hanging out wondering what to do on Friday, there’s stuff to watch. Catch former Vols coordinator Dave Clawson — the original Pants! — plus Les Miles back on the field and the almost-hired Mike Leach. Woo?

Gameday, September 14, 2019

The Vols kick off at noon against Chattanooga on the SEC Network. Meanwhile, future Vols opponents Georgia and Mississippi State are in games they should win, but if you want a look at them, DVR the games and watch them later.

The CBS SEC Game of the Week is Alabama against South Carolina, two future Vols opponents, although it could get out of hand in a hurry. Other games of interest to Vols fans in that time slot are USC-BYU and a midwest rivalry game between the Hawkeyes and the Cyclones.

In the evening, it’s Tennessee’s next opponent — Florida — against another future opponent in Kentucky. This is where we really start to see the SEC East race take shape. Root for chaos and the ‘Cats. If there’s nothing of the sort on tap, there are other games to channel-hop as you wind down your day.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

In a sea of sound bites this week, I thought this one was interesting:

We’ve talked a lot about Pruitt’s nature as it relates to the offense, especially because the Vols ran fewer plays than any team in college football last season. Does he naturally lack aggression? Was he trying to protect a vulnerable defense? And we wondered last week, before Jarrett Guarantano struggled so mightily against BYU, if Pruitt could adapt that kind of philosophy and green light an offense that scored a bunch of points if the defense truly couldn’t stop anyone.

There are fewer questions about the defense and more about the offense after the loss to BYU. But Pruitt’s response about fourth down was noteworthy, especially because the numbers already show a significant change in that department.

The Vols have gone for it five times, which is tied for 14th-most in college football (stats via SportSource Analytics). Your eyes immediately jump to the fact that Tennessee is just 1-for-5 on those conversions, and rightfully so. But big picture, I think five tries in two games is more significant…especially because Tennessee only went for it on fourth down 11 times last year.

That ranked 126th in college football; among teams that missed a bowl game, only Maryland had fewer attempts last season. In 2018 Tennessee came out of this particular gate fast: 2-of-3 on fourth down against West Virginia, successful conversions against ETSU and UTEP, and an 0-for-2 as part of a hyper-aggressive gameplan against the Gators. The Vols also went 0-for-2 against South Carolina on their final two drives…then didn’t try it again the rest of the year.

We saw a conservative nature on fourth down for the entire Butch Jones tenure:

The last consistently aggressive coach on fourth down was Lane Kiffin, who tried one in every game except the blowout win over Georgia. It doesn’t always work: the Vols were denied twice in a frustrating loss to UCLA. And when it does, it doesn’t guarantee victory: the Vols went 5-for-5 combined in narrow losses to Auburn and Alabama. But the willingness to go is something we never saw with Jones, and only saw as a reaction to Dooley’s least competitive team with an injury-riddled offense in 2011. Seventeen of those 28 attempts that season came in games featuring Matt Simms or Justin Worley at quarterback.

I like Pruitt’s quote, and I like the idea. Football coaches find forgiveness much faster for sins of aggression than the other way around. Had the Vols trotted out Cimaglia (and he continued to be automatic) on 4th-and-1 at the BYU 30 with 4:15 to go instead of trying Josh Palmer on the end around, Tennessee leads 19-13 and now BYU needs two hail maries instead of one.

And I’ve heard zero people make that point.

Call it confidence or aggression, but it tends to be rewarded over time. We’re especially appreciative of it after the previous administration courted close games every year. I’m hopeful Pruitt continues down this path, especially because it would represent doing something different. It’s one thing to say you’re learning, it’s another to demonstrate it.

You also can’t be aggressive for the sake of being aggressive. The Vols still struggle to run the ball in short yardage situations after being last by a mile in that stat last season. In two games, when running on 3rd-and-1-3 and 4th down, the Vols have nine carries for 24 yards. The 2.67 average is better. But those nine carries have still only produced five first downs. The Vols can be both smart and aggressive in their play-calling; again, that’s why I don’t hate the end-around, because at least it wasn’t another stuffed attempt into the center of the pile.

The larger issue everyone is invested in is building the mindset Pruitt references. Coach like you believe in your players, and it’s easier for them to believe in themselves. Belief is hard to come by after two games in Knoxville. But in the big picture, the fourth down mindset represents a hopeful shift in Pruitt’s philosophy, and will hopefully lead to a young team and a young coach continuing to grow in the right direction.

Looking beyond the W-L record, the Vols’ national stat rankings show some welcome progress in rushing offense and sacks allowed, and the defense got better but not as much as you might think. Here’s a closer look.

Offense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Rushing offense, sacks allowed

Fell out of the Top 30: 3rd down conversion percentage, red zone offense, passing offense.

Defense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Rushing defense

Nearly everything here is better, but most not nearly as much as you’d think. Still major problems on third down.

Special Teams

This is still mostly garbage at this point, but punting remains a strength. Kickoff returns took a hit this week.

Turnovers and Penalties

This table is sorted first by category and then by the BYU column, but you can’t tell because Tennessee is currently good at not committing penalties but bad at turnovers.