Just before kickoff of the first Tennessee-Florida game as Eastern Division rivals in 1992 (after the old SEC rotation brought them on each other’s schedule in 1990 and 1991), one of my dad’s friends made a comment in our section about how the Gators would soon become Tennessee’s biggest rival. To my 10 year old brain, that was blasphemy – and it still sounds a little that way at 37 – but if we’d all known what was coming, we might’ve agreed.

The other answer to that question is a rivalry built on streaks. This one, turning 30 this week, has arguably carried a more potent brand of both agony and ecstasy. Alabama and Tennessee take turns being big brother. With the Gators, Tennessee has been little brother that wins just enough for us to want more.

Images from those wins are burned in our memories. Dale Carter to open the second half. Mose Phillips in the rain. No-sir-ree. Travis Stephens vs Guss Scott. James Banks and James Wilhoit. And Jauan Jennings gleefully coming down the sideline.

A question we asked a lot during the Butch Jones era was some form of, “Doesn’t Tennessee actually have the better team this year?” It’s the one we wanted to be true all those years in the 90’s, when losses could at least be chalked up to elite competition. As lesser Florida teams still found a way to turn the Vols into even lesser versions of themselves, the rivalry evolved into a new level of frustration. The Gators were, for a long time, the team standing between Tennessee and the top of the mountain. Most recently they’ve become the team that’s kept Tennessee from being “back”.

There’s a world of should’ve packed into this decade with the Gators. In the mid-90’s, Florida took hope away early. In the last seven years, they’ve stolen it late. In 2012 the Vols led 20-13 with five minutes left in the third quarter and lost (by 17). In 2014 the Vols led 9-0 on the next-to-last play of the third quarter when Justin Worley was blindsided. The Vols lost. In 2015 the Vols scored to take a 26-14 lead with 10 minutes left in The Swamp, chose not to go for two, and it all went very bad from there. And in 2017 the Vols had 1st-and-goal at the nine with a minute left, settled for three to tie, and you know how that ended too.

So it was almost nostalgic when Florida took Tennessee’s hope right away last season, a hyper-aggressive gameplan backfiring into six turnovers and Tennessee’s first ten drives ending in something other than a punt or a touchdown.

Tennessee doesn’t have the better team this year on paper. In 30 years of doing this, the Vols have been favored to beat Florida seven times (via Covers.com). And the Vols have beaten Florida seven times. Three times, Vegas got it right: the Vols rolled in that first meeting against Spurrier in 1990 from -4.5 to a 45-3 win. Tennessee was -3 in 2004 when James Wilhoit went from goat to hero. And three years ago, the Vols turned -4 into a 21-3 hole into 35 straight points.

Four times, the Vols have lost as a favorite: nightmarish first halves in the rain in 1996 and 2002 in Neyland, that nightmarish finish in 2012, and four years ago in The Swamp, the only time Tennessee has been favored in Gainesville (-1) since the rivalry was played annually.

(I’d rate that loss, by the way, as third-worst of my lifetime. 2001 LSU is the undisputed champion, and I hope stays there for the rest of my life. 1990 Alabama is number two. But I think everything about that 2015 loss – the series of horrendous coaching decisions in those last 10 minutes, the carryover fury from Oklahoma, and the fact that it cost the Vols the SEC East when other infamous losses cost Tennessee far less – it’s the worst of a very bad time these last 12 years.)

Four times, Tennessee pulled the upset. In the downpour in 1992 at +4.5 with a young Phillip Fulmer on the sideline. The eventual National Champions were +3 when Collins Cooper sailed wide. The last win in The Swamp in 2003 came with the Vols +3. And, of course, the +16.5 in December 2001 in what is still the best football game involving one of my teams I’ve ever seen.

This year, the Vols opened at +12.5. It quickly swelled to +14.5. Despite only beating the Gators seven times in 29 tries, +14.5 is the third biggest line the Vols have faced in this series, trailing the 16.5 they turned around in 2001, and the +30 they easily covered when everyone thought Urban Meyer might actually attempt murder on Lane Kiffin.

Unlike the current nature of the Alabama rivalry, where the Vols have faced lines of 29.5, 36.5, 28, and 29 in this decade, Florida is always right there within reach. It’s what makes it hurt more when the Vols fail to grab it. And it’s what makes us hope – even this year – that another Saturday we’ll remember forever might get added to our list.

As you’d expect against an FCS foe, the Vols’ national stat rankings improved quite a bit this week. Here’s a closer look.

Offense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing was in the Bottom 30 last week

Climbed into the Top 30: Red zone offense, tackles for loss allowed

Fell to the Bottom 30: 4th down conversion percentage

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing this week (because nothing was in the Top 30 last week!)

Nearly everything is better on offense, with the exception of the passing game.

Defense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Scoring defense, which went from 112th to 55th. Woo for shutouts against FCS opponents.

Climbed into the Top 30: Team passing efficiency defense, passing yards allowed, and red zone defense. Also, passes intercepted, when compared to the most recent ranking in 2018.

Fell to the Bottom 30: Nothing, although 3rd down conversion percentage defense remains there even with a slight improvement.

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing, technically, although sacks fell dramatically from just out of the Top 30 all the way to 79th.

Most everything is improving, with the exception of sacks and tackles for loss. Third down is still a problem.

Special Teams

Special teams is currently the strength of the team by a long shot. The worst ranking here is No. 30, in kickoff returns. Net punting is one spot away from being the legit best in the nation.

Turnovers and Penalties

Five turnovers this week against the Mocs shook things up here, with turnovers gained teleporting straight from the cellar (No. 105) to the penthouse (No. 20), turnover margin going from No. 113 to No. 32, and the others seeing vast improvement. Regarding penalties, the number of them improved, but the actual penalty yards took a bit of a hit.

The Vols beat an FCS team 45-0 this past Saturday, which doesn’t really mean much with the SEC slate looming. But they beat an FCS team 45-0 this past Saturday, which means they did what they were supposed to do.

The first two weeks of the season, the Vols didn’t do what they were supposed to do, so living up to expectations is an improvement. Does it mean we can circle back to the preseason expectations we had for this team for the remaining games of the season? Probably not. Not yet, anyway. But it does mean that we can probably adjust them upward just a wee bit from where they were last week.

We learned more about some of the Vols’ future opponents this weekend, too. Alabama and Georgia were about what we expected. Kentucky and South Carolina perhaps better than expected. And Florida and Mississippi State look perhaps a little less intimidating today than they did this time last week.

Bottom line, I’m adjusting my expectations for the Vols upward just a bit, and I’m shuffling and readjusting some of the remaining opponents.

With those adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.65. Woo. A good showing against the Gators will do wonders for these numbers.

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37
• After Week 3: 3.65

Details: I have Alabama and Georgia at 5%. In my second tier, I have Florida and South Carolina both at 25%, and in my third tier, I have both Kentucky and Missouri at 30%. Mississippi State and Vanderbilt are inching toward tossups, but aren’t there yet, as I have them both at 40%. I have UAB at 65%.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-2 (0-0), 3rd in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 2-1 (0-0), 1st in the Sun Belt East

So much for the “Maybe these guys are better than we think” talk.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-1 (0-0)

But wait, maybe these guys are, in fact, better than we thought. Beating a ranked team has to count for something, right?

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 1-2 (0-0), 4th in the Southern Conference

The Vols’ future opponents

Florida Gators

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC East

Kentucky had this game won, at least twice. They looked like the better team most of the game until they lost the lead late. And then they still had a chance to hit the go-ahead field goal with about a minute remaining. This was in character for Kentucky and in character for Florida, which I hate to say because if we see an in-character game between Tennessee and Florida this weekend, we’re in for another new and novel heartbreak. The Vols need to break character.

Also, Gators quarterback Feleipe Franks left the game on a cart with an air cast and is expected to miss the rest of the season. But it was backup QB Kyle Trask who won that game for Florida. We might have preferred to see Franks.

Bottom line, Kentucky looks better than I thought, but Florida looks worse than I thought.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC East

Ho-hum. Nothing to see here.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 2-1 (0-0), 3rd in the SEC West

The video recap of this one suggests that Mississippi State is dangerous, both to others and to itself. They pulled their starting quarterback after a couple of picks and gave up a 100-yard kickoff return right after finally getting a go-ahead touchdown. Chalk this one up more to mistakes than overall aptitude.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC West

Forget the final score here for a second. The Gamecocks made this look like a real contest for much of the game, sometimes looking like world-beaters themselves and sometimes making Alabama look vulnerable. Yeah, Bama ultimately did what Bama ultimately does, so there’s not much change in attitude about them, but South Carolina looks better than I thought they would, especially after losing Jake Bentley.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-2 (0-1), 5th in the SEC East

See above.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 1st in C-USA West

Off this week.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-1 (0-1), 5th in the SEC East

See the bit on Florida above. The Kentucky-Florida game was much closer than the score suggested. The Wildcats really should have won and looked like the better team most of the night. Something clicked off when Kyle Trask took over for Florida.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-1 (0-0), 3rd in the SEC East

Rushing touchdown. Receiving touchdown. Both a punt return and a kickoff for a touchdown. Defense pitched a shutout. Fine day, even considering the opposition.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-2 (0-1), 5th in the SEC East

The Commodores were off this week.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Looking to give the system a hard reboot, Tennessee quarterback Jarrett Guarantano dropped back, wound up, and launched a deep ball to one of his most trusted receivers.

It should have been intercepted.

An ominous start against an inferior opponent, to say the least.

Forget the fact that Ty Chandler opened the game with an impressive 58-yard kickoff return. We Vols fans have seen too many happy moments immediately swallowed by malevolent forces not to be vulnerable to the oh noes. So, that near-pick on the first play from scrimmage made you grimace and brace for another day of new and novel disappointment.

But it was thankfully short-lived because immediately after that, the machine finally came to life. Tim Jordan ran for 9 yards, Eric Gray for another 8, and then Jordan for another 4. Then Chandler got another first down on a 7-yard run and hit the checkerboards on the next play with a 13-yard dash to the end zone. Five plays, all on the ground, for a 41-yard touchdown drive aided by Chandler’s kickoff return to set up the short field position.

With the exception of an early live-fire experiment for backup quarterback Brian Maurer in the third possession, the Vols offense scored on every drive until the third quarter was nearly over, and with Tennessee leading 45-0 by that time, the game was over as well.

Meanwhile, the defense not only pitched a shutout, it went on a turnover binge. Nigel Warrior returned an interception 22 yards on Chattanooga’s first offensive possession. After forcing a three-and-out on the second, the Vols defense let the Mocs drive down to within sniffing distance of the end zone but recovered a fumble to end that threat. The defense got off the field early after another three-and-out on another possession and then ended the next one with the first of two interceptions by Jeremy Banks.

By the end of the day, the Tennessee defense held Chattanooga to 227 total yards and caused five turnovers despite playing half the game with its second- and third-string. The Vols offense ran for 195 yards and threw for 165 and protected the ball the entire game. And the special teams even got into the action, blocking a punt and returning it for a touchdown.

Guarantano went 7-8 for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns in his short day. Six different running backs put up more than 10 yards, Chandler leading the way with 46. And eight different guys caught passes with three of them — Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, and Cedric Tillman — getting in the end zone.

All of this, of course, was accomplished against an outmatched team from an entirely different league. But we don’t have to go too far back in the archives to find disappointing results against inferior opponents, so it was good to hear the machine hum again.

It’s not like we weren’t all wondering if it was all a pile of rubble already, especially after Guarantano’s first pass looked more like the last two weeks than how he looked last year.

But the awful beginning gave way to finally seeing what we actually expected.

Who know? Perhaps the season itself can follow the same script.

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Vols looking to forget the last two weeks and reboot the season right here and right now. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch today as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

• Kickoff: 12:00
• TV: SECN
• Official video streaming: Watch ESPN
• Official audio streaming: Vol Network
• Live stats

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

And here’s a searchable version of the entire college football TV schedule for this week:

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

The podcasts this week were preempted by Zofran, Pepto Bismal, and Sprite, but you can find Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Heather Harrington on WNML’s Sports 180 here.

Pre-game prep

To catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

• Progress, Competitiveness, and Investment
• What the SPM comps say about Tennessee-Chattanooga
• Video: Post-GYU, Pre-Chatt pressers, interviews, and more
• What Do We Make of Pruitt and Fourth Down?
• Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after BYU
• What is the GRT Expected Win Total Machine telling you after BYU?
• Embrace/Refrain

Go Vols!