Gameday on Rocky Top

I love the simplicity of the NCAA Tournament. It takes a minute to get there sometimes: last year the Vols rode an emotional wave on Selection Sunday, winning the SEC Tournament only to still be disappointed with a three seed. For better and for worse, no such drama is available to Tennessee this year. And with no Zakai Zeigler available, there’s a bit of a shrug about this whole business.

But that shrug is for predictability, and not for a lack of desired outcome. The Vols will play a first round game in just a few days. Tennessee has been good at the “survive” part already this year, this team bothered by injuries more than any of our tournament groups going back through the Pearl era. Now comes the advance part. It’s this part, in the sport’s very nature, that always carries the greatest risk and the sweetest reward.

There will be time to look at individual matchups once the bracket is announced. But for now, let’s simply start with Tennessee. How do the Vols advance?

Team Defense

• 20-0 when opponents score less than 60 points

While UCLA has momentarily usurped Tennessee’s KenPom defense crown, the Vols are still plenty good here. The first question for any opponent: can you get to 60 against us? The Vols are third nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed, and still first in three-point percentage allowed, even though that number has improved for opponents. The Vols allowed 28.9% in conference play from three, and sit at 26.2% on the season.

The flip side of this one, of course, is Tennessee is 3-10 when opponents score 60 or more. But the Vols do have meaningful wins over Texas (82-71) and Vanderbilt (77-68) at those marks, and beat Alabama with the Tide at 59 points.

Maybe we’ll see it show up and overwhelm a first round opponent. But either way, Tennessee’s defense remains elite, even with their turnover prowess lessened without Zeigler. This is level one.

Defend Without Fouling

• 21-3 when committing less than 20 fouls
• 19-3 when the opponent makes less than 15 free throws
• 17-3 when the opponent attempts less than 20 free throws

The corresponding stat here: it’s the same three losses in each of those. Vanderbilt and Missouri (twice) are the only teams to hit 10+ threes against the Vols this season. So for sure, if an opponent catches fire from the arc, the Vols could be in trouble. But if they don’t, the Vols don’t want to help an opponent cheat past their defense by getting an abundance of points at the free throw line.

More on rotations and tournament minutes without Zeigler in a moment, but keep an eye on Jahmai Mashack here. In two of three full games without Zeigler, he’s gone to the bench early with foul trouble, and played just 13 minutes at Auburn.

Crash the Offensive Glass

• 15-1 with a 39+% offensive rebounding percentage

The one loss here is Missouri in Knoxville: 14 threes and a buzzer beater, etc. But the best remedy for an offense that can struggle with good shooting is to attack the boards, and Tennessee is generally very good at that. They’re also less limited here by Zeigler’s absence than anywhere else.

This stat also catches a large percentage of Tennessee’s Quad 1 wins: Kansas, Texas, Maryland, and Starkville all featured 40+% offensive rebounding performances. At first, it seems easy to make this the go-to stat: the Vols are 15-1 at 39+%, but just 1-4 at 26.5% or less. But the one in 1-4 is Alabama (21.4%). Still, attacking the offensive glass is where Tennessee’s offense shines brightest.

Individual Players: Not Enough Information

• 4-0 when Josiah-Jordan James plays 30+ minutes
• 9-1 when Josiah-Jordan James scores 11+ points
• 13-2 when Julian Phillips plays 26+ minutes
• 12-2 when Julian Phillips makes 3+ shots

A couple of outliers here: the one loss when Josiah scores 11+ is Colorado in the second game of the season. The most reliable of these numbers is Julian at 3+ made field goals, bested only by Vanderbilt and Missouri yesterday, both at 10+ threes made.

But both of these groups simply need more data, and we’re almost out of time. We’re not, however, out of minutes…and Rick Barnes loves to give those to his best players in March.

Look at the increase in minutes for the top of the rotation in Tennessee’s most recent competitive NCAA Tournament games:

Player	Avg. Minutes	2022 Michigan
Vescovi	31	38
Chandler	31	37
James	29	37
Player	Avg. Minutes	2021 Oregon St
Vescovi	29	35
K. Johnson	26	35
J. Springer	26	31
Player	Avg. Minutes	2019 Purdue
Bone	33	39
Schofield	32	42
Turner	31	41
Bowden	28	36
Player	Avg. Minutes	2019 Iowa
Turner	31	41
Bowden	28	35
Alexander	24	33
Player	Avg. Minutes	2018 Loyola
Williams	29	34
Bowden	28	33
Turner	25	32
Bone	23	31

It’s a safe bet you’re getting ready to see a ton of Santiago Vescovi. I think there’s reason to believe the same will be true for Josiah-Jordan James. Are there more minutes getting ready to materialize for Julian Phillips as well?

And in the post?

Individual Players: Post Scoring

• 11-2 when Olivier Nkamhoua makes 5+ shots
• 9-0 when Jonas Aidoo makes 3+ shots

There’s only a tiny bit of overlap here, with Nkamhoua and Aidoo both crossing these thresholds just twice. That makes the Vols 16-2 when just one of these two things happens. Tennessee needs one of those two to produce offensively to create their best basketball. And UT’s most frequent lineups put these two guys on the floor together; we’ll see what more minutes for Josiah and/or Julian might do to those pairings.

The Vols aren’t perfect, but no one is, especially this season. Defend without fouling, crash the offensive glass, get one of your bigs going inside…and let’s see what some extra minutes for UT’s best players might do.

The fun starts soon.

Go Vols.

The Vols got more good reps without Zakai Zeigler yesterday, rolling past Ole Miss despite the Rebels’ hot shooting in the first ten minutes. Santiago Vescovi played 36 minutes, plus 39 at Auburn and 38 vs Arkansas when Zeigler went down. But while we may not want to do that four days in a row, it’s not so different from what’s been asked from Vescovi since the Texas game. The Vol senior has played 34+ minutes in 10 of the last 12 games, logging 31 in the home meeting with Auburn and 25 in the blowout of South Carolina.

The biggest changes in minutes and rotations have been more game-to-game. Jonas Aidoo played 30 minutes against Arkansas and Auburn, but just 14 yesterday. Getting 31 minutes from Josiah-Jordan James against Ole Miss was big, and the senior responded with 20 points and 7 rebounds. And Olivier Nkamhoua bounced back in a big way after getting just 21 minutes at Auburn, with nine points and four assists in 28 minutes vs Ole Miss.

The Vols are versatile, and their biggest wins other than Texas this season have come while down at least one contributor. There are hopefully several more games left in this season, but to this point this Tennessee team has had more players miss time with injury than any of our other NCAA Tournament teams in the last 17 years.

Here’s how that looks by comparison, taking the top five players in minutes played in each of our 12 NCAA Tournament teams in that span, with the percentage of games they appeared in each season:

2023	Pct. of Games Played
Vescovi	91
Zeigler	94
Nkamhoua	100
Phillips	88
JJJ	63
2022
Vescovi	100
Chandler	97
JJJ	91
Zeigler	100
Fulkerson	94
2021
Vescovi	100
Pons	96
JJJ	93
Fulkerson	93
Springer	93
2019
Bone	100
Williams	100
Schofield	100
Turner	77
Bowden	97
2018
Williams	100
Schofield	100
Bowden	100
Turner	100
Bone	100
2014
Stokes	100
McRae	100
Richardson	100
Maymon	100
Barton	100
2011
Hopson	94
Harris	100
Goins	97
Tatum	100
Williams	94
2010
Hopson	100
Chism	100
T. Smith	32
Prince	100
Maze	100
2009
T. Smith	100
Prince	91
Chism	100
Maze	100
Hopson	100
2008
Lofton	100
T. Smith	100
J. Smith	100
Chism	100
R. Smith	100
2007
Lofton	89
J. Smith	100
Bradshaw	100
R. Smith	100
Crews	100
2006
Lofton	100
Watson	100
Bradshaw	100
Patterson	100
Wingate	100

At this point, the 2023 Vols are the only one of these teams to have two of their top five players in minutes played appear in less than 90% of games. If Tennessee keeps winning, Julian Phillips can ultimately get back above that 90% threshold. But Josiah-Jordan James prior inactivity will still keep this team at the bottom of this list, if you take away Tyler Smith’s January 1 dismissal in 2010.

Tennessee gets another chance today against Missouri, who I’ll tip my hat to if they make 14 threes against us again. Keep an eye on the minutes for Vescovi and Josiah, or any new rotations. But this team, to their absolute credit, has been figuring it out without all its pieces all season. And that, as much as anything, gives me hope that there’s more good basketball still out there in front of them.

Go Vols.

In Sunday’s Bracket Matrix, the Vols are holding on the three line. Following the loss to Auburn, Tennessee is the last of the three seeds there, 12th overall. Joe Lunardi’s bracket from Sunday evening agrees. And the Vols are still third in NET, one of only 10 teams with 7+ Quad 1 wins and a winning record against that group.

There are still a couple of scenarios where Tennessee could fall to four: a quick exit in the SEC Tournament, or the committee docking this group for Zakai Zeigler’s absence. As opposed to last season, the committee’s process might actually be advantageous to the Vols this year:

As seen just now on CBS, I believe this is a first in terms of the NCAA broadly laying out the committee’s layer-by-layer process on a made-for-TV graphic a week out from the bracket reveal. pic.twitter.com/RopEq8sCAh

— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) March 5, 2023

There’s good news geographically as well: while the Vols appear to have no shot at the Louisville region with Alabama atop that bracket, Tennessee does seem safe to spend the first two rounds in Greensboro. With the Vols a clear number two from the SEC and a down year from the ACC, look for Tennessee and Virginia to head to North Carolina. A 3/6 matchup with Duke in round two isn’t out of the question.

I think the biggest thing for Tennessee this week is simply more reps without Zeigler. Santiago Vescovi played 39 minutes at Auburn, with foul trouble limiting Josiah-Jordan James to 26 minutes and Jahmai Mashack to just 13. Jonas Aidoo played a season-high 30 minutes against Arkansas and Auburn as lineups shifted around.

One word of gratitude: this will only be the third run in school history of 5+ NCAA Tournaments in a row. Don DeVoe’s guys did it from 1979-1983. Bruce Pearl’s teams went in each of his six seasons from 2006-2011. And for Rick Barnes, it’s now five in a row (plus the covid year).

In the 64-team format, the Vols have only been a Top 4 seed seven times; this year should make eight. And Barnes’ teams will have half of those: a two seed in 2019, with threes in 2018, 2022, and (hopefully) 2023.

As Tennessee’s master plan for the athletic department uses Top 16 finishes as one of its goals, I like looking at basketball success through the lens of that Top 4 seed conversation: did you have the kind of regular season to make yourself a favorite to advance to the second weekend of the tournament? In UT’s case, even through ongoing injury concerns, that answer should again be yes.

Of the 52 entries in Wednesday’s Bracket Matrix, 50 had the Vols as a three seed. This chaos season has actually solidified the top of the tournament: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, and Purdue remain entrenched as the ones, with UCLA, Texas, Baylor, and Arizona firm on the two line. Should the Wildcats slip down, their brethren from Manhattan, KS are most poised to move up from the three line in the matrix. Marquette and Gonzaga join the Vols and Kansas State there.

I appreciate Joe Lunardi – who got the Vols’ placement dead on last year even while disagreeing with it – who works to put stakes on every outcome:

pic.twitter.com/aNem7QR34V

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 1, 2023

But we all carry the scars of last season, when winning the SEC Tournament did nothing for Tennessee on the seed line. If the Vols were a three in the bracket reveal a couple of weeks ago, and have kept pace with everyone else’s chaos…they seem likely to be a three on Selection Sunday no matter what happens from here.

The most cynical among us could make the argument that the Vols are more likely to move down because of Zakai Zeigler’s injury than move up by winning out.

https://twitter.com/Vol_Hoops/status/1631021602715598848

There are an incalculable number of words to be said about Zeigler, and thankfully more seasons left to say them. And there are plenty of words to say about Tennessee without Zeigler; Will Warren has a great breakdown of how the Vols might look.

This Tennessee team is well-versed in the chaos that defines this season:

The Vols have wins over:

Kansas & Maryland without JJJ
Starkville without Vescovi & Key
Alabama without JJJ & Phillips
Arkansas without Zeigler & Key

— Will Shelton (@wshelton2) March 1, 2023

Seven Quad 1 wins ties the Vols for ninth in the country. Tennessee is still third in NET, fourth in KenPom, and has a chance to play its way to a double-bye in the SEC Tournament on Saturday despite losing five of seven games in February. There is plenty of good already done, plenty more to be done.

We obviously saw Tennessee function at a high level against Arkansas without Zeigler (and Tyreke Key). The Vols adjusted on a fly with a lineup that included 38 minutes for Santiago Vescovi. In postseason play, Rick Barnes isn’t afraid to go this route even with all options available: against Michigan last year, Vescovi, Kennedy Chandler, and Josiah-Jordan James all played 37-38 minutes.

It feels like there’s a decent chance the first line on an opposing scout of Tennessee just became, “Get Vescovi in foul trouble.” The good news there: that’s statistically harder to do with him than any other Tennessee player. Vescovi averages 2.4 fouls per 40 minutes, the best number on the roster. It’s mostly outrageous that he plays so clean while also being 68th nationally in steal percentage. And lineups that include Vescovi + Mashack won’t have to worry about a huge drop-off there without Zeigler, as Jahmai is fifth nationally in that stat.

We might be overly partial to this as a potential red flag because we’ve seen it happen too many times in March. Two years ago the Vols lost John Fulkerson in the SEC Tournament, then saw Yves Pons get into quick foul trouble against Oregon State in round one. That forced Tennessee even deeper into combinations that just hadn’t played together much. In 2019, Kyle Alexander fouled out with three minutes left in overtime against Purdue and the Vols down one. The Boilermakers hit those two free throws, then got a layup and a dunk on their next two possessions to push the lead to seven.

But if Tennessee can keep Vescovi on the floor, I think there’s a good chance they can continue to do the things they’re very best at. Any argument that the Vols would be better without Zeigler is nonsense. But the core of what represents their best basketball – elite defense, limiting fouls, offensive rebounding, and minimally efficient three-point shooting – can survive and advance.

March approaches. Tennessee is holding firm on the three line in the Bracket Matrix, with clear divisions emerging among the top ten teams. At this point it would be a surprise to see something other than the current groupings in the matrix on the one and two lines, plus Kansas State and Tennessee at three.

Of course, the last few weeks have held more surprise than the Vols would’ve liked. Tennessee has lost five of seven, but gets a bounce-back opportunity in hosting South Carolina tomorrow.

Headed into March, what is the best available blueprint for Tennessee? What numbers lead to victory most often, especially offensively as this group tries to find itself?

Nothing is guaranteed: last season the blueprint for Tennessee’s worst basketball was turning it over excessively, then the Vols had a season-low six turnovers against Michigan but lost. But if we’re looking for Tennessee’s most reliable paths to victory, so far this year it goes something like this:

17-0 when opponents score less than 60 points

It starts here, and the Vols are still plenty good at it. Tennessee is still first nationally in defensive efficiency, first in effective field goal percentage allowed, and first in three-point percentage allowed (25%). The Vols are also 17th nationally in turnovers forced and 33rd nationally in blocked shot percentage. Tennessee does almost everything at an elite level defensively. Almost.

13-1 with 16 fouls or less

In defensive free throw rate allowed, the Vols are 290th nationally. The absolute best way to beat Tennessee’s defense is to get to the free throw line.

This plays out in a number of foul-related stats:

• 17-2 when opponents attempt 20 free throws or less (Missouri & Vanderbilt)
• 8-1 when opponents make 11 free throws or less (Vanderbilt)
• 0-5 when opponents have a free throw rate of 37.5% or higher

You’ll see as we go the frequency with with Missouri, Vanderbilt, or both show up as the outliers. They’re the only two teams to hit 10+ threes against the Vols. Tennessee is 1-4 when teams shoot 35+% from three, but the one is number one Alabama.

So yes, teams that are on fire from deep can hurt even Tennessee’s defense. But the more reliable way to get to them is via the free throw line. It’s always less comfortable when you feel a little reliant on how the game is being officiated. For the Vols, is there an emphasis to be placed on defending without fouling?

What about offensively, with the greatest room for improvement?

Here’s a look at each of the last six Tennessee teams, and how they’ve performed offensively in KenPom’s four factors:

Season	KenPom O	EFG%	TO%	OREB%	FT Rate
2023	72	247	191	6	183
2022	35	140	127	46	223
2021	85	189	131	71	92
2020	96	207	280	96	65
2019	3	18	25	72	178
2018	36	176	141	41	107

This team finds itself in the back half of these Barnes teams offensively. They are the worst of the group in shooting, but the best of the group in:

13-1 when getting 40+% of offensive rebounds

If you can’t make shots, you’d better be good at getting the rebound. And these Vols are great at it. Here again, the lone loss is Missouri.

We know Jonas Aidoo is a machine here; Jahmai Mashack is also better than he gets credit for. Two of Tennessee’s best offensive glass guys are, of course, Josiah-Jordan James and Julian Phillips. I obviously don’t know the depth of conversation they’re having on attacking the offensive glass vs transition defense. But Tennessee’s greatest asset offensively is the number of second chances they create for themselves. More history on this from January 16.

And then there’s this old friend:

14-2 when shooting 30+% from three

The two, of course, are Missouri and Vanderbilt. Last season, the Vols were 22-1 at this number, the lone loss at Rupp Arena. Here again, you’re not asking for a whole lot. Santiago Vescovi is heating up, now at 36.1% from the arc on the season. But Tyreke Key (33.6%) is the only other Vol shooting better than 33% among perimeter players. More history on this from February 7.

So, the best available blueprint:

• Hold teams under 60
• Keep opponents to less than 20 free throws
• Crash the offensive glass at 40%
• Shoot 30% from three

Play to your absolute strengths on defense and the offensive glass. Defend without fouling. And get simply minimum efficiency from the three point line.

We’ll see what else we can learn between now and tournament time, starting tomorrow against South Carolina. March is on the horizon. And Tennessee’s best basketball is still plenty good enough to win.

Go Vols.

Tennessee goes for its sixth ranked win of the year at #25 Texas A&M on Tuesday night. The Vols, in fact, are 5-1 against the Top 25 this year (and 4-1 against the Top 15), the lone loss at #9 Arizona. Tennessee got it done against #3 Kansas, #13 Maryland, #10 Texas, #25 Auburn, and #1 Alabama.

It’s frustrating, of course, to get such good results against the best of your schedule, but also have an additional six losses. It’s unusual to be so good against the Top 25 but be 0-2 against a Kentucky team outside it. The Vols are 4-2 in what Bart Torvik defines as Quad 1A games; the only team in the nation with a better winning percentage vs Quad 1A is Arizona at 5-0. And, of course, the Vols have four Quad 2 losses.

We’re 27 games in now, so in part we know what we’ll know about this team. But we’ve also seen injuries mess with Tennessee’s ability to run with a consistent best five for more than a few games at a time. Most recently, only the stretch from at LSU on January 21 to Josiah-Jordan James’ injury at Vanderbilt on February 8 featured the Vols at full availability.

With JJJ and Julian Phillips still day-to-day, we don’t know for sure when we’ll see that full strength again, or how strong it will be. That makes it harder to say this team can find its best basketball late purely through lineup solidification, though it has been done here before (2010, our only appearance in the Elite Eight).

Still, the frustration of losing – in particular, to Kentucky and at the buzzer – can outweigh what has been a really strong regular season run for this team by our own historical standards.

Ranked wins don’t mean everything, and mean less in college basketball, where tournament wins are king. But I’m still a proponent of celebrating every meaningful opportunity, and ranked wins provide the best metric for that in the moment. We just finished a football season where the Vols tied 1998 with wins over six ranked teams. That’s not where you start the conversation on the accomplishments of last fall, a journey that included and ended with the Vols in the national championship conversation and a belief they can be there again.

But it was the most fun you could have along the way.

So, in the “don’t forget to have fun” department, consider this: since the AP poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989, I count only three Tennessee Basketball teams to have ever beaten more ranked teams than this one. Shout out, as always, to the media guide:

• 2000: The eventual SEC Champions and first Vol squad to make the modern Sweet 16 beat six ranked opponents, all after January 1: #21 LSU, #9 Florida in double overtime, #7 Auburn by 29 points, #12 Florida in single overtime, #18 Kentucky, and #20 UConn a 4/5 Round 2 game.
• 2007: Chris Lofton turned an ankle, and this team lost six of eight from January 10 through February 3. Otherwise, they went 22-5 with ranked wins over #16 Memphis in Lofton’s barrage, #15 Oklahoma State on the Dane Bradshaw tip-in, #23 Vanderbilt, #20 Kentucky, #25 Alabama, and the defending champs from #5 Florida. They also beat an unranked Texas team in a game you might’ve heard of, and lost by one point to #1 Ohio State in the Sweet 16.
• 2022: That’s right: last season has the record with seven ranked wins. The Vols got #18 North Carolina, #6 Arizona, #13 LSU, #4 Kentucky, #3 Auburn, #14 Arkansas, then #5 Kentucky in the SEC Tournament.

So right now, put the last two years together and you’ve got a dozen ranked wins. To find a dozen ranked wins before that, you need five seasons (2017-2021). The two-year high in the Bruce Pearl era was 10 in 2007 and 2008.

So yes, March wins will always count most. But as it’s not March yet, we can’t solve that problem today. What the Vols can do is get healthy and make progress, whatever degree the one relates to the other. And, along the way, we might find more reasons to celebrate…starting tomorrow night.

Go Vols.

Just on the basketball side of things, just for a moment.

Tennessee has now beaten #3 Kansas, #10 Texas, and #1 Alabama. It’s February 15.

That’s good, because last year’s team beat #6 Arizona, #4 Kentucky, #3 Auburn, then #5 Kentucky again for good measure. In 2019, the Vols beat #1 Gonzaga and #4 Kentucky twice. Throw in the 2020 win at Rupp Arena over #6 Kentucky, and that’s 11 wins over Top 10 teams in the last five years.

We are good at basketball.

It’s the kind of good where, even without two starters against the number one team in the nation, you get it done. And not because you were lucky: Tennessee shot 26.1% from the arc against Alabama and missed nine free throws. The Tide shot 37.5% from three and 16-of-20 at the line.

But Tennessee won because they were Tennessee: relentless defense, taking the ball away 19 times. And in a game when every rebound was fiercely contested, the Vols grabbed 13 on the offensive end. Alabama was number one for a reason; getting it back on 32.5% of misses was huge. Put those two things together, and the Vols had 15 more shot attempts than the Tide.

And Tennessee was consistent. Alabama made a number of big shots to keep things within reach throughout the second half. But after a Zakai Zeigler free throw made it 44-40 Vols with 12:37 to play, Alabama never got within one possession. When the Tide closed again to four points with 3:30 to play, it was an offensive rebound – one of four from Jonas Aidoo – that pushed Tennessee back in command. When Santiago Vescovi missed the front end with 1:19 to play, a sequence that led to Alabama with the ball down six just 30 seconds later, he created a turnover – one of three steals on the night – then hit two free throws to effectively, appropriately, end it.

Five Vols scored between 9 and 15 points. Jahmai Mashack didn’t score, but Rob Lewis at Volquest notes he led the team in +/- thanks to his exceptional defense. Tennessee didn’t shoot it great against a great Bama defense, but they played with purpose on that end of the floor, and cleaned up enough of their misses to do what needed to be done. Defense, championships, etc.

We’ll see what championships are out there for this team to win, but tonight affirmed what’s probably always been true, only blurred by buzzer beaters: we’re good. Good enough to beat anybody. Great enough defensively to make it really hard to beat us.

That’s a few words of the many, many this team, its coaching staff, and tonight’s effort deserve, on their own.

As a…what do we call it? A bonus? A gift? A not-sure-we’ll-see-this-again-so-let’s-celebrate-it-madly?

Tennessee beat #3 Alabama in football four months ago, then beat #1 Alabama in basketball tonight.

Whatever your question, not just in football but in apparently the entire athletic department, you can believe the answer can be yes.

Tennessee is good. And, especially tonight, at our best when we’re ourselves.

Go Vols.

What’s the best way to follow back-to-back heartbreak? Here comes the biggest opportunity of the season.

Tennessee and Alabama have played some good ones, with four of the last five meetings being decided by five points or less. Since Nate Oats arrived, Alabama has won three of four: the Vols rallied from 15 down behind 22 from John Fulkerson to win in Tuscaloosa in 2020. Then Bama scored the first win over Tennessee in 2021, knocking down 10 threes in an eight-point win in Knoxville. Jaden Springer got hurt after playing just five minutes.

That’s a common theme: Tennessee has been short-handed from the tip in the last two meetings, and may make it three Wednesday night. In the 2021 SEC Tournament, 24 hours after Fulkerson’s concussion, the Vols fought but fell against the SEC champs 73-68. And last year in Tuscaloosa, both Fulkerson and Kennedy Chandler were out, but the Vols again were game in another 73-68 defeat. We’ll see about the availability of Josiah-Jordan James and Julian Phillips this time around.

The Vols and Tide boast two of the best defenses in the nation. Tennessee is still number one in that department, with Alabama five (and Mississippi State up to four). But they go about it in different ways. The Tide are driven by taking away good shots: Alabama is second in the nation in three-point percentage allowed (26.3%), first in two-point percentage allowed. But they do all of that without committing to the creation of turnovers: Alabama is 311th nationally in turnover percentage.

Tennessee, of course, is first in the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed, and still first in three-point percentage allowed (24.2%) after last week’s barrage. But the Vols get a lot of their work done defensively in creating turnovers: 17th nationally in turnover percentage, with Zakai Zeigler and Santiago Vescovi both excellent in creating steals.

A quick word on luck: Alabama is 32nd in that stat at KenPom, and 4-0 in games decided by one or two possessions. The Vols are 3-3 in such contests now, but carry a luck rating of 293rd. That would be the “worst” luck rating of any tournament team here, other than the poster children from 2014, who went 0-6 in one or two possession games but almost made the Elite Eight. So yeah, it felt like this:

https://twitter.com/BetSmartUS/status/1625139779649081346

Back to turnovers: last year, what made for Tennessee’s worst basketball was easily identifiable here. The Vols had a season-high 20 turnovers in the nightmare at Rupp Arena, 18 in the loss to Villanova, 18 more in an overtime escape vs Ole Miss. When the Vols turned it over 14+ times, they were 7-4, and 20-4 otherwise. Like everything else in this sport, it wasn’t bulletproof – the Vols had a season-low six turnovers against Michigan – but it was pretty clear to see what made things get away from us.

But this year, two of Tennessee’s best performances (and two of our four Quad 1 wins) came when the Vols leaned in to the chaos offensively.

Against #3 Kansas in the Bahamas, Tennessee shot 12-of-27 from three and 80% from the free throw line. The three-guard combo of Zeigler, Vescovi, and Tyreke Key had 44 points, and Tennessee won easily 64-50. We also turned it over 24 times, by far a season high.

In Starkville, without Vescovi or Key, Zakai Zeigler played 40 minutes and finished with 24 points. The Vols also got an 18/11 from Julian Phillips, and pulled away late for a 70-59 win. Similar song and dance: 10-of-24 from three, 14-of-15 at the line…and 17 turnovers.

Is there something to be said here for simply being more aggressive offensively? And how might that manifest itself against an Alabama team that really isn’t interested in trying to take the ball from you?

What the Tide are interested in is going fast when they have possession: Bama plays at the second-fastest pace in the nation overall, and gets their shots off third-fastest. This, as we know, is not Tennessee’s primary love language. But if defense continues to be the constant for the Vols – and they’ll get a big test tonight – I’m curious to see if the offense can find an additional spark by creating from chaos.

It’s been a weird set of days, but here we are: a favorite over the number one team in the nation. We’ve seen enough, both in the past and the present with this team, to believe something good is available tonight.

Beat Bama.

It was a “check the media guide” night, and sadly not in the fun way. Apparently I’d blocked from memory that Vanderbilt hit 18 threes against us in 2005, the Thompson-Boling Arena record. In Rick Barnes’ tenure, at least, the only teams to hit more than the 14 Missouri fired through tonight were Auburn, Colgate, and Purdue in 2019…who all did it in a span of 11 days against maybe our best team ever.

This sport can be weird.

In that department, I’m pretty sure I haven’t blocked from memory the Vols being on the wrong end of back-to-back buzzer beaters. That’s new. As such, it will be a new experience for this team to move forward from.

For what it’s worth, I thought all of this was good:

Rick Barnes: Honestly, I'm really proud of the fight those guys put up in the second half. The way we fought back, I love it. It's a different feeling than the one the other night.

— Ben McKee (@benmckee14) February 12, 2023

Rick Barnes: I hate it for Santi. He's hurting. I'm hurting for him. I really am. He's won a lot of games for us.

— Ben McKee (@benmckee14) February 12, 2023

Rick Barnes: I think we can grow from these last two games. We're all disappointed that we lost, but there's still a lot of basketball left. We'll grow from it.

— Ben McKee (@benmckee14) February 12, 2023

#Vols guard Tyreke Key: I couldn't be more proud of our guys. We fought to come back and we did. They just hit a tough shot there at the end. You just have to give them credit. Not much you can do about that type of shot.

— Ben McKee (@benmckee14) February 12, 2023

The good news here: all the big picture questions we might have or the feeling sorry for ourselves vibes have no choice but to go through #3 Alabama next.

They’ll go to Rupp Arena after that, but we’re healthiest at one-at-a-time, and no matter what this next one is our biggest one.

Health will continue to be a question mark, now both for Josiah-Jordan James and Julian Phillips, who was off to a nice start in ten minutes tonight. In response, Tyreke Key played 31 minutes, his most since 34 at Arizona. And he was on fire in the second half, finishing with 23 points on 13 shots. The Vols did their part offensively, with 12 threes and 26 free throws. The heartbreak is the only option for the lead story tonight, no doubt. But Tennessee almost beat what was an eight seed in the Bracket Matrix when they shot 14-of-26 (53.8%) from three, while playing without two starters. It’s a situation you live with more easily if it ended in different fashion.

But again: it’s all forward, and against what will feel like our biggest test. It’s a great opportunity to reframe the narrative of what this season still is, and still can be.

I’m really eager to see what’s next.

Go Vols.

If defense is the constant, predicting what we need on the offensive end is still a moving target. So, sure: make shots. The Vols are 227th nationally in effective field goal percentage, the lowest ranking of any of the Rick Barnes tournament teams in Knoxville. In SEC play, the shooting numbers probably aren’t quite as bad as you think: fifth in the league in effective field goal percentage, fifth in three-point percentage (at just 31.8%, so either the league is just really bad at it this year, or the grind is claiming everyone right now). Last year the Vols shot 36.8% from three in league play, a tenth of a point behind Kentucky at the top.

Shots going in would be great. The offense, as it’s always done under Barnes, seeks to create good shots through good ball movement, where Tennessee still leads the SEC in assist rate.

But when shots aren’t falling, where to turn? After the loss to Kentucky, we looked to offensive rebounding, noting the Vols were 14-0 when getting more than 25% of their misses. But in Gainesville, the Vols grabbed 36.7% of their misses and lost.

After the Vols beat Auburn shooting 9.5% from the arc, we noted that Tennessee was 14-0 when shooting 30+% from three, and 23-1 at that number last season. But in Nashville, the Vols shot 36.8% from deep and lost.

It’s still true that the defense is so good, getting just minimal results from three and hitting the offensive glass usually give the Vols every chance they need. But the Vanderbilt loss highlighted something that has quickly become a glaring note: the Vols are getting to the free throw line far less than the rest of the SEC.

On the year, the Vols are 210th nationally in free throw rate. The season-long ranking is not that different from what we’ve seen last season, or even in 2019, but both of those teams rated much higher in the shot-making department.

But in 11 league games this year, the Vols are getting to the free throw line on a league-worst 20.7% of their field goal attempts. The next-worst squad is South Carolina, a woeful 241st in KenPom and 231st in offense, who gets to the line at 26.8% in SEC play. Last year Missouri was worst in the league in free throw rate at 27.5%. The Vols improved in league play in 2022 to ultimately finish fifth at 36.6%.

How do you coach your team to get to the foul line more often? Attacking the basket unsuccessfully could lead to runouts the other way that negate Tennessee’s absolute strength on the defensive end, it’s true. Playing more through the bigs could lead to more free throws: Uros Plavsic gets free throws on 39.3% of his attempts (but is shooting 36.4% from the stripe), Tobe Awaka at 35.2%. Tyreke Key’s number is higher than I thought as well.

But by far, Julian Phillips leads the Vols (and is 49th nationally) in getting free throws on 59.3% of his attempts.

This might be more of an side note than a dot to connect at this point, but when Phillips attempts at least four free throws in a game, the Vols are 11-1 (with the loss to Colorado). In the other losses: two attempts at Arizona, none vs Kentucky, three at Florida, and the only two free throws of the game before the miss at the end at Vanderbilt.

You can also use that stat to see how the offense has changed, in part due to the availability of Josiah-Jordan James. Phillips attempted 65 free throws in Tennessee’s first 10 games. Since then, he’s attempted just 31 free throws. This is of particular note, of course, because James is down with a sprained ankle for the moment.

To me, the conversation about Phillips and his role in this offense is less about not dunking it in those final seconds at Vanderbilt, and more about what he could do for this offense in getting to the line, and how he does it better on paper than anyone else on this team.

It’s February 10, and the Vols are getting ready to face the most difficult portion of their schedule, we assume without Josiah-Jordan James for at least a minute. Keep playing defense, keep hitting the offensive glass, and sure, make shots. But the greatest room for improvement in this offense is in getting to the free throw line.