Gameday on Rocky Top

I wore orange to work today, even though I figured they wouldn’t really play basketball at 1:00 PM ET in Nashville. Since moving back to Virginia I’ve acquired more brand-free orange so as to be somewhat less obnoxious to my neighbors here in Hokieland. It’s convenient, since both of the schools of record in the commonwealth have orange in their scheme anyway.

I wore orange to work today because we played today, or we were supposed to, and that’s what we do. It didn’t matter that the Vols are 17-14 and not 27-4 as they were this week a year ago. That distinction feels like it matters a whole lot right now – the cancellation of the NCAA Tournament isn’t robbing us of a real chance to make our first Final Four this year – but we’re also figuring out, and fast, how much we’re actually going to miss a hypothetical NIT run.

It’s never really about the winning. I’ve written about Tennessee for 14 years now, a period in which the football team has 94 wins and 83 losses. That’s tied with Western Michigan for the nation’s 59th best winning percentage in that span. And yet, we keep putting fingers to keyboard to talk about the Vols because that’s what we do. I’m not far from 40, and I still have a stubborn, childlike, idiot optimism that says, “I know they’re probably not even going to play this thing, but Alabama’s on a slide, and we should have no fear of Kentucky now, and if we can get to Saturday…” And so by God, we wear orange to work today.

There’s a quote I like for sports about how they’re the most important unimportant thing we do. Now something that only happens a couple days a year in the summer – no games of record in America’s major sports the days before and after baseball’s all-star game – is getting ready to become our reality for at least weeks. They’re still playing golf at Sawgrass this weekend, at least for the moment. And if you can judge the severity of a hurricane by when the Waffle House closes? Vince McMahon and professional rasslin’ are without question the Waffle House of sports (entertainment). So there may still be a few unusual options, but no reason to wear your color of choice to work for a while.

We won’t miss sports because they matter, as much as we’ll miss them because so much else does. For these same 14 years, I’ve been a United Methodist pastor. There have been plenty of days when writing about the Vols seemed so unimportant. And some of those days I just haven’t. I’m not contractually obligated to create content – I get to do this because I want to – but if I was, I too might find it somewhere between odd and distasteful to write about who Tennessee’s backup tight end will be this fall. At least right now, while all of this is still unfolding and none of us are sure just how bad it’s going to be.

But at the same time, when it is that bad, there are moments when all I want to do is write about the backup tight end.

I think it cheapens both sports and life when we define them as only “escape”. Sports can absolutely serve that purpose; solitude is cozier when your bracket’s on the line. But sports also contain so much of what we value about the actually important things: relationships, loyalty, community, and a childlike hope. The winning and losing is more defined. But it’s never fully about the winning and losing. The experience itself is what keeps us coming back.

This time last year during Lent, our church took one consistent, meaningful, screen-free hour for 40 days (inspired by The Tech-Wise Family by Andy Crouch, a great book that might be an especially worthy read if you’re thinking of how to fill more hours in these next few weeks). My wife and I took 4-5 pm each day: no screens, no phones, etc. That meant a callback to the days of John Ward during the middle third of an epic Tennessee & Kentucky showdown in the SEC Tournament, letting the radio be our guide. A few days later it also meant a panicked hour of, “Alexa, what’s the score of the Tennessee game?” when Colgate made a run.

It was just an hour every day, but it was harder than I thought it would be. We are indeed creatures of habit. In our tradition, God creates with order from chaos, a story told in poetry. We’re made for rhythm. Maybe sports should never sit in the first chair. But they make the song better, even when you lose.

Important stuff is happening. But if you do it right, important stuff happens every day. I’d let those who are experiencing these cancellations on a personal level speak for themselves and call it what they like. From Dayton, to Rutgers, to those in the state tournament here in Virginia, now called off with titles split among the finalists. The NCAA cancelled all spring sports. That hurts for our suddenly prominent baseball team, who might’ve squeezed in a reason to wear orange to work in June. And it hurts for names we’ll never know or see who ran track or played tennis. They’ll have their own language. As fans, we’d be wrong to call any of this a tragedy while actual tragedy unfolds. But I think we’d be right to lament the loss, though temporary, of the place sports hold in the rhythm of our lives.

At my job we’re trying to figure out whether or not to have church on Sunday. But the real work is in trying to figure out how to get food to kids if school closes, and make sure our 90+ year old friends have what they need for today. And we’ll give ourselves to that work, because that’s what we do. I will miss coming home, at the end of a long day, and checking the NET ratings. I’m sure we’ll still find something hopeful and orange to talk about on this site.

Maybe that’s the thing about being creatures of habit, created in the image of a creator: we can always make something new. The song goes on. We can still find the rhythm.

At the end of this long day, I came home and played outside with my 2.5 year old son while my wife, about to enter her third trimester with our daughter, watched on. The cure for absence is presence, even if you have to be present a little more carefully right now. Presence makes you better at all the important stuff. And presence helps you appreciate all that’s good and right about sports in its proper place too.

At the end of this long day, the music still plays and we can still find the rhythm: my son picked up a basketball, and we took it from there.

Go Vols.

When you’re putting together dream scenarios for the Vols to run through Nashville and win the SEC Tournament, a few things might wake you from sleep. Tennessee hasn’t won four games in a row since starting the season 5-0. If you make it through Thursday, the league champion awaits on Friday (though that wasn’t a problem last week). And a young, thrown-together lineup will generally lack the consistency it takes to pull off this kind of feat, one the Vols haven’t accomplished since 1979.

But perhaps more than anything, how long this Tennessee team lasts is dependent on its stamina. These Vols aren’t just hastily formed, they’re operating at just about the only way they have a chance to succeed: playing their starters an insane amount of minutes.

It feels like John Fulkerson is the key piece of the puzzle here, but statistically that’s not true. Granted, he played 39 minutes in the win at Rupp. But Fulkerson, through some combination of fatigue and foul trouble, plays only 30.1 minutes per game.

The word “only”, as you’ll see, is relative. Let’s start with Jordan Bowden.

The Vol senior averages 34.4 minutes per game, well north of the 27.8 he put in last season. And it’s well north of anyone to play at Tennessee in the last 15 years (Pearl, Cuonzo, Tyndall, and Barnes) other than Josh Richardson:

Player	Season	MPG
Josh Richardson	2015	36.3
Jordan Bowden	2020	34.4
Kevin Punter	2016	34.1
Yves Pons	2020	33.9
Jordan McRae	2013	33.5
Jordan Bone	2019	32.9
Armani Moore	2016	32.7
Tyler Smith	2009	32.6
Jarnell Stokes	2014	32.4
Jordan McRae	2014	32.2

(data via Sports-Reference)

One thing you’ll notice about that list: none of Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams featured anyone playing 33 minutes or more. Of the nine Vol squads to make the dance in these last 15 years, five saw the guy with the most minutes play less than 30 per game. The bench isn’t just about how much production they give you when they’re on the floor. It’s about their ability to have your best players at their best in the last four minutes.

What Bowden is doing gets little press; it’s easy to take a senior who played 22.8 minutes as a freshman for granted. But he’s been doing this all year, even before Lamonte Turner went out (39 minutes vs Washington, 37 at Cincinnati). When Josh Richardson did it in 2015, it became one of the most remarkable things about that season by its end. But this team came so close to doing something truly remarkable in the regular season, Bowden’s individual stamina has gone largely unnoticed.

And it’s not just him. There’s Yves Pons at fourth on the leaderboard at 33.9 minutes per game. When Fulkerson gets a blow, sometimes it’s Pons who gives it to him. Those nearly 34 minutes a night are the most at Tennessee for a non-guard since Ron Slay played 34.2 in his SEC Player of the Year campaign in 2003. Pons is the SEC shot blocking champion at 2.4 per game, joining Nick Richards (2.1) as the only players to average more than two per game.

Also, consider Santiago Vescovi, who isn’t just remarkable for playing and playing well this season. Vescovi’s 30.3 minutes per game are the most for a Tennessee freshman since C.J. Watson played an insane 35.8 minutes on that same 2003 squad with Ron Slay, another bubble casualty with those two and Jon Higgins all playing more than 33 minutes per game. And Josiah James is right behind Vescovi at 29.9 minutes per game.

Here’s what minutes for elite freshmen typically look like at Tennessee:

Player	Year	MPG
Santiago Vescovi	2020	30.3
Josiah James	2020	29.9
Grant Williams	2017	25.4
Jarnell Stokes	2012	25.6
Tobias Harris	2011	29.2
Scotty Hopson	2009	23.4
Ramar Smith	2007	27.2
Chris Lofton	2005	29.5
C.J. Watson	2003	35.8

Good news is coming, but not this week. Jordan Bowden’s 34.4 minutes will have to be replaced, but the Vols have Keon Johnson, Jaden Springer, and Oregon transfer Victor Bailey to carry that load. Corey Walker and a more fully-formed Uros Plavsic can make sure Fulkerson and Pons are at their very best late in the action.

Right now the Vols are running a glorified seven-man rotation: the starters all play 30+ minutes, Jalen Johnson and Davonte Gaines contribute 10-15 minutes off the bench depending on whether you need more from your offense or defense, and maybe you get a brief spell for your posts from Plavsic and Olivier Nkamhoua. If the Vols do make the NIT, I’ll be curious to see if Barnes throws those two in the fire more often just to see what he’s got.

But next year, there should be a legitimate battle for playing time. If you assume Vescovi, James, Pons, and Fulkerson are all in the mix, plus your three stud recruits, plus Victor Bailey, that’s eight before we even get to this year’s bench of Plavsic, Nkamhoua, Gaines, Johnson, and Pember. Get the kind of growth we’ve come to expect from this coaching staff and the kind of spark you expect from bringing in the nation’s number five class, and the problem will be figuring out who your best five are instead of worrying about if they’re your only five.

Given all that, what the Vols have done this season deserves a tip of the cap no matter where it goes from here. I’m hopeful it’ll go as long as it can in Nashville. But given these minutes, any run would be remarkable. And in a season full of surprises, who knows? Maybe they’ve got one left up their tired sleeves.

Here’s the Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Auburn Tigers. As always, the conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

And here’s how the last game between these two teams played out:

Okay, so turnovers were a total aberration last game. Do not repeat.

Summary and Score Prediction

As we said in advance of the last game between these two teams, the numbers suggest that Tennessee will have its hands full against an Auburn team elite at offensive rebounding and getting to the free-throw line. But, the Vols did have 17-point lead at one point against them less than two weeks and although they ended up losing by 7, they pretty much gave the game away in the form of an aberrant 24 turnovers, so there’s reason to believe. (I mean, if you don’t already believe after what happened against Kentucky.)

The goals for the Vols, which are the same as last time, but with a certain portion now made bold:

1. Sharpen the sword of the shooting defense; it will be needed.
2. Don’t turn the ball over as much as usual. Possessions will be especially valuable.
3. Do what you can do in boxing out, rebounding the ball, and defending without fouling. This is where they’ll either beat you or give you the game.

KenPom actually likes the Vols at home and puts the score at Tennessee 68, Auburn 66. Buckle up, and keep your eyes on The Incredible Fulk.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Memphis and VCU and actually not much better than Tennessee.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Florida and South Carolina. Tennessee has had put up some major stinkers in this category throughout the season, including in the prior meeting with Auburn. They have the ability to limit that, though. It’s just a question of whether they do in any given game.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: These guys have a backpack full of kryptonite in store for the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Sheesh, that’s not fair. Dudes are shooting 27 free throws per game.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

At this point, I think Tennessee is better than its season-long numbers suggest, and its defense is every bit as good as the numbers suggest. I’m giving the advantage to the Vols here.

Turnover %

Conclusions

This really should have been much closer to even last game, but for the Vols going on a major binge. Let’s hope they at least stay in character tomorrow and don’t give up more than 13 or 14.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Alright, that is just really bad news right there. I don’t even know what you tell a bad defensive rebounding team going up against an excellent offensive rebounding team. Just don’t bleed out and get in as many licks as you can. On the other hand, we did get almost as many as they did last game, so that’s one actual way you can make up for it.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Oh, gross. Ick. This makes it look like we’re just going to play the entire game standing there at the foul line watching them shoot. Which is kind of how it turned out last time around, with them shooting 27 times to our 17. Maybe we should just back off a little when defending, I don’t know. At least early, so nobody important has to sit on the bench when needed.

Go Vols.