Last week we looked at the last 15 years of Tennessee’s SP+ data and found that the Vols’ 2020 projection in that metric would be a season most similar to 2009, 2012, and what became of 2016. The common thread in those years: you came to kickoff almost every single week believing the Vols had a real chance to win.
If the 2020 Vols had a real chance to win every Saturday, from Furman to Alabama, they would be on a short list in Tennessee’s recent past. In the 11 seasons since Phillip Fulmer left the sideline, the Vols have been a three-possession underdog at kickoff 17 times (via closing lines at covers.com). Only in 2015 and 2016 did the Vols escape a three-possession line the entire year. And only in the other two best-comparison SP+ years – Lane Kiffin’s 2009 and Derek Dooley’s final campaign in 2012 – were the Vols only a three-possession underdog once. Kiffin took the air out of a +30 line against Urban Meyer; Dooley’s Vols were +19 against Alabama in his final season.
Including Fulmer’s final 2008 season, the Vols lost 35 games by at least 17 points in the last 12 years. The only season in that stretch without a three-possession loss: 2015, which is the only season without a two-possession loss since 1998. The next year the Vols were blown out by Alabama but had no other three-possession losses.
But again, other than 2015 and 2016, losing multiple games by 17+ points has become the norm. The transition years from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt are particularly damning, with 11 three-possession losses in 2017 and 2018. Other than 2015 and 2016, the only seasons in the last 12 years with just two 17+ point losses:
2009: Dexter McClustered at Ole Miss, and an underrated Virginia Tech team pulled away late
2014: at #4 Oklahoma, at #3 Ole Miss. The Vols were feisty when Josh Dobbs took over, but also faced Georgia and Florida in down years; this was Missouri’s second division title year
Here too, I’d include 2012 in the conversation: the loss to Florida was technically three possessions at 37-20, but as you might not want to recall, the Vols led that thing midway through the third quarter before the defense became non-existent. They were blown out by Alabama. And they threw in the towel at Vanderbilt in Dooley’s final game.
So, if the 2020 Vols just played every opponent to within two possessions? They’d join only 2015 as the only Vol squad to do so since…2001! And once you start going backwards from there, you’re on a first-name basis with the three-possession losses in the 90’s: Nebraska, two losses in The Swamp plus a Florida loss in Knoxville featuring Todd Helton, and two weird bowl blowouts to Penn State. That’s the entire list of 17+ point losses in the 90’s.
Have a chance to win every game/stay within two possessions, and 2020 would join 2015, 1998-2001, 1996, 1992, and 1990 in the last 30 years. So of course, it’s not the only benchmark for a successful season – the Vols did plenty of good in years when they got up on the wrong side of the bed one week. But it would be a clear step forward. And more than anything, for fans it’s about the value of that belief: “We have a chance to win this game.”
Rodney Cofield, know on Twitter as @TheiSmooth, has been running his Atlanta-based digital marketing and multimedia firm iSmooth Media for the last two years. The company seeks to create high impact content for individuals and corporations alike, and has established itself with local clients like Georgia Tech and Atlanta Public Schools as well as global brands like Mercedez Benz and Adidas among many others. And as recruiting becomes more and more of a multimedia enterprise, Cofield’s links to Tennessee could be very mutually beneficial.
A native Atlantan and huge sports fan, Cofield noticed that despite the huge numbers of high level prospects in the area across multiple sports, Atlanta athletes weren’t getting the type of multimedia exposure that those from other places in the country were getting. He started making videos and taking photos for Atlanta Public School recruits and athletic programs, earning the trust of players and coaches alike. From there he became more and more well known in the area, producing commitment videos for prominent recruits like 5-star Oklahoma WR Jaden Haselwood.
Vol fans likely first came across Cofield’s work with the release of 4-star Kamar Wilcoxson’s commitment video. The video shows Cofield’s blend of storytelling and action, drawing the viewer’s attention throughout until the very end when Wilcoxson announces his commitment to the Vols with a dramatic reveal. But that wasn’t his first connection to Tennessee football. That story, as does everything in recruiting, involves relationships. And in this case, it includes a random meeting in the San Antonio airport with Tennessee’s 2020 signee Harrison Bailey. As Cofield tells it, he was walking by when Bailey – there for the All American weekend – was showing his QB Coach Tony Ballard (of Hustle Inc QB Academy and 7×7 team) the aforementioned Haselwood video and recognized Cofield. The three made a connection and not only has Cofield become close with Bailey (or HB5, as he calls him) and Ballard but has since become affiliated with Adidas as well through Hustle Inc. Wilcoxson, from Ellenwood, GA, played for Hustle Inc and thus became acquainted with Cofield. Thus, the video.
Upcoming changes to Name, Image, Likeness (NIL) rights and regulations are going to make a huge impact on college sports whenever they are put into place. With them, branding for athletes will certainly begin for high level recruits starting when they are in high school, and Cofield is positioned to be a real player in this realm with his multimedia skills and experience as well as his relationships with players and coaches – high school and college – alike. And while he didn’t grow up a Tennessee fan, his relationships with HB5 and now Wilcoxson have certainly started him trending in that direction and he plans on being in Knoxville for a few games this fall. He also has his ear to the ground for Tennessee when it comes to recruits, and thinks that the upcoming month of June could have big things in store for the Vols 2021 class. Will we see more iSmooth-produced commitment videos that end with a Big Orange T at the end? Seems more likely than not, but we’ll all have to stay tuned…
It’s almost magazine time – more on that soon from Joel – but this week our writing staff had a conversation on this year’s cover and title. After the Kiffin/Dooley era and Butch Jones’ first season, we – as writers and fans – have spent many of the last six summers asking some form of the same question: “Okay, we’re going to make progress this fall, right? But how much?”
Now on our fifth coach in the last 13 years, the same length of time between our last division title and now, I find a lot of the necessary patience is now built in to that question. The majority don’t look at the 2020 Vols and their 2020 schedule and use the “back” word with large swaths of confidence. That’s never been a fruitful pursuit in the first place, the 90’s now three decades gone. But the hope remains that we will go “forward” this fall. How far?
Setting aside the large list of uncertainties related to the coronavirus, some of the most helpful context for me comes from the same source we use often when talking football. Bill Connelly’s SP+ data is our favorite predictive model for the future, and one of the most interesting when looking back at the past.
In last year’s magazine, we did an adaptation of a story on our site from January 2019, ranking the last 50 years of Tennessee Football in SP+. The metric itself goes back to 2005, but in 2016 Connelly developed estimated SP+ ratings all the way back to 1970. The primary takeaway from our story: to show just how far the Vols fell in 2017, the worst Tennessee season of the last 50 years by a healthy margin. That framed Jeremy Pruitt’s initial work, which still finished third-to-last in SP+ since 1970, but represented significant progress over the year before. Pruitt’s rebuilding task is historically most similar to what the Vols were trying to accomplish in the early 1980’s, which Johnny Majors ultimately paid off in 1985.
That story used percentile ratings: the 2017 Vols were in the 17th percentile, while Tennessee’s best teams of the last 50 years were in the 95th-98th percentile all-time. But in framing 2020, I find it helpful to just use the actual SP+ data from the last 15 years. In this year’s preseason SP+ ratings, the Vols earned a 14.7 (points better than the average team on a neutral field). How does that compare to the last 15 years of Tennessee football?
Working backwards through the list, we get:
The Bottom
2017: 1.2 SP+ rating (points better than the average team on a neutral field)
No need to dwell here: total collapse to 4-8, blown out by Missouri and Vanderbilt, no other option but change.
The First Year (or Years 0 & 1 for Dooley)
2013: 5.1
2018: 5.5
2011: 6.9
2010: 7.7
Not much surprise here either: the first seasons for Dooley, Butch, and Pruitt, plus an injury-riddled second year for Dooley. One other common theme here: all four of these teams faced particularly difficult schedules. Dooley and Butch got Oregon in year one, Pruitt got West Virginia. Dooley’s second year, the last of facing two rotating SEC West opponents, saw the Vols get #1 LSU and #8 Arkansas. Butch got the Kick Six Auburn team in year one; Pruitt got (and beat) a ranked Auburn team in year one.
Fulmer’s Down Years Are Now Our Year 2
2019: 10.7
2008: 12.0
2014: 12.2
2005: 12.3
Last season is at the bottom of this tier; not a bad accomplishment considering what happened in September. The 2019 Vols would be five point favorites over the 2018 Vols, themselves four point favorites on their 2017 counterparts. The 2008 Vols had the nation’s number one defense in SP+…and the Clawfense finished 97th. Butch’s year two died against Florida but was resurrected by Josh Dobbs. And the 2005 Vols got sick on the quarterback carousel with injuries just as contagious.
The good news about this tier: in all four of these cases, Tennessee was significantly better the next season.
We Have a Chance to Win This Game
2020: 14.8 (preseason projection)
2012: 15.1
2009: 16.2
2016: 16.3
The preseason SP+ ratings put the 2020 Vols as four points better than their 2019 counterparts on a neutral field. That means they’d be two touchdown favorites on the 2017 Vols. Not bad work from Jeremy Pruitt going into his third year.
What’s the common theme in this tier? I think it’s competitiveness: not with Missouri and Vanderbilt, but with everyone. In 2009, 2012, and 2016, only against Alabama in 2012 should the Vols truly have had no shot. Some of these games turned into nice surprises for us (Kiffin vs Florida and Alabama). Some of them went very differently than we thought at kickoff the other way (Dexter McClustered in 2009, Dooley’s last hurrah at Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Vanderbilt in 2016).
Remember for 2016 in particular, this rating takes the entire season into account. In preseason, the 2016 Vols were at 19.2 in SP+. Those three points could’ve made a difference against Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. So you’ll also note this tier features records from 5-7 to 9-4. Now, I don’t think the 2020 Vols are looking at 5-7 unless there are catastrophic injuries. But herein lies the beauty of SP+: every play counts, and it’s meant to give you an idea of a team’s strength, not the value of their resume. Not all 9-4’s are created equal, as we learned under Butch Jones. In this group you also had total breakdowns on the defensive side of the ball in 2012 and 2016 tied to new coordinators, another plus for the 2020 Vols who bring back the same faces.
So this becomes a helpful framework for 2020: can I come to kickoff thinking we have a chance to win every Saturday? This group had its flaws, but I do think they’re at least a half-step above, “Can beat anyone and be beaten by anyone.” You’re still going to get an upset here and there. But for teams on this level, you could believe victory was possible every week.
Competing For Championships
2006: 18.9
2015: 19.5
2007: 20.2
The step beyond for Tennessee: get back to Atlanta. The 2007 Vols did it. The 2015 Vols were one play(s) away against the Gators from doing it. And the 2006 Vols were ranked eighth in November before Erik Ainge got hurt.
Here again, this framing is more fruitful to me than chasing memories of the 90’s. And here again, each of these teams lost four games. But their relative strength was a step above what we saw in the previous tier: that group we expected to compete, this group (which is where 2016’s preseason numbers would go) we expected to win.
To me, the question isn’t about whether the Vols can break into this tier in 2020. If they do the work well in the previous tier – competitive with Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, and Georgia – they’ll have a chance for clear success and progress.
Of course, these numbers are all about predicting your ability to win. The most important thing is to actually go do it. Hitting what feels like the top portion of realistic projections for 2020 – win one of those four big games and don’t get upset by anyone else – and following it up with a Citrus/Outbackish bowl victory would put the Vols at 10-3. Tennessee hasn’t won 10 games in a season since 2007, and hasn’t ended a year with less than four losses since 2004. That would be a tremendous accomplishment.
The wins will always matter most. But Pruitt has done a good job getting forward progress from the Vols from the bottom of 2017. There should be more of that on the way this fall. How much?
If I can come to kickoff 13 times this year and believe we’ve got a real chance to win, that’s a really good start. If this team can finish off some of those wins, the Vols will keep this whole thing moving forward.
Although an offer to a 2022 prospect in May of 2020 normally
wouldn’t cause much of a ripple, Tennessee’s offer to Atlanta-area QB Sam
Horn yesterday shines a light on how far Tennessee’s Quarterback situation
has come in just a year or so. After
entering his inaugural 2018 season as Tennessee’s Head Coach with only RS
Sophomore Jarrett Guarantano, graduate transfer Keller Chryst, and true freshman
late signee JT Shrout, Jeremy Pruitt has completely revamped the position to be
one of real strength heading into the 2020 season but potentially even more so in
the near future. Assuming 5-star true
freshman Harrison Bailey isn’t able to overtake Guarantano in the latter’s
senior season, he’ll head into the 2021 season battling some combination (pending
transfers) of Shrout, Brian Maurer – he of some very promising play in the 2019
season that was ultimately derailed by injury – and Top 100 overall player and
current 2021 commitment Kaidon Salter.
That’s to say nothing of course of the real possibility that Tennessee
brings in former 5-star and true freshman USC starter JT Daniels as a transfer
this offseason, which we have advocated
for in this space.
The 2022 QB class in general appears to be loaded, with
numerous high level talents across the country.
What makes it unique from Tennessee’s perspective of course is the very rare
presence of an elite QB prospect within the borders of the Volunteer State in Ty
Simpson from Martin, TN. Simpson has
offers from all of college football’s bigtime powers and is considered to at
least be on the level of Bailey as a prospect.
He’s also very strongly considering Tennessee, to the point where one
might reasonably consider him to be a Vol lean at this point. By all indications Simpson is Tennessee’s #1
2022 QB on the board, and there’s also a thought that Simpson would like to be
the only QB in his class, aka “The Man.”
Is Tennessee willing to take a commitment from Simpson and shut it
down? Perhaps, maybe definitely. Hard to say of course unless and until
Simpson decides to commit. In the meantime,
it’s worth noting that Tennessee has familial ties with, and has received
visits from, two of the other most highly touted and recruited QBs in the 2022
class. Kaden Martin, son of
Tennessee legend and current WR Coach Tee Martin, received a Tennessee offer
earlier this winter and has since received offers from schools like Miami, Arkansas,
and Ole Miss among others. Braden
Davis, son of former Tennessee OL Antone Davis who was also the VFL
Coordinator not long ago, is even more highly ranked and recruited holding
offers from Alabama, Oregon, Georgia, and other elite programs while ranking as
the 247 Sports #4 Dual Threat QB in the class.
Davis visited Knoxville in early March before the shutdown and obviously
has a fondness for his father’s alma mater despite living in Delaware.
Horn is a fast-rising prospect in his own right, already holding
offers from numerous ACC schools, Missouri and Kentucky before Tennessee jumped
in with an offer. UGA Offensive
Coordinator Todd Monken inquired last night as well, no doubt due to Tennessee
making the leap. Horn is yet another
prospect with deep ties to the University, as both of his parents attended
school in Knoxville and he has an older brother who’s a UT student now. His family has been season ticket holders for
years and he’s attended numerous games in Neyland Stadium and he called the
offer a “dream come true”.
So what do we make of the offer to Horn in light of where
the Vols sit with Simpson, as well as Martin and Davis? Well, from this vantage point it seems like
there are a number of factors at play here.
For one, Horn appears to be a really good looking prospect who is going
to end up being a high level recruit. And
as a lifelong Vol fan from a UT family, it makes sense to throw your hat in the
ring and not be late to the party.
Secondly, even if it’s true that Simpson is Tennessee’s #1 target on the
2022 board, he’s not ready to commit yet.
Coach Jeremy Pruitt isn’t one to go without multiple backup plans,
especially in recruiting, so this tracks his standard operating procedure. Thirdly and finally, if Tennessee does land
JT Daniels, what does that do with someone like Simpson and all other 2022 QBs
who might all of the sudden see a more crowded QB room in Knoxville as an impediment
to committing to Tennessee.
The bottom line is that Pruitt’s goal is to continue to
improve Tennessee’s roster at every position – from 1st team to
scout team – as quickly and as much as he can.
With the QB position inarguably being the most important position on the
field, getting that group to an elite level takes on that much more significance. Therefore, giving themselves as many options
as possible to land at least one if not multiple bigtime QBs in each class, and
building on the work done from the 2019-2021 classes (not even inclusive of the
potential add of Daniels) is imperative.
That’s what Tennessee has done by offering Horn this early and despite
what had appeared to be a relatively set 2022 QB board, and it’s yet another
example of Pruitt being one of the best in the game when it comes to not just
recruiting but also roster management and future-based thinking.
When Dylan Brooks committed on April 26, there was certainly excitement over landing a five-star and the number one player in Alabama. But, at the time, Brooks was by far the biggest fish in Tennessee’s pond. The Vols were low in blue chip ratio with lots of work left to do in this class.
Fast forward two weeks, and it feels like everything changed.
Jesse Simonton at VolQuest did the research, and calls Tennessee’s run of 11 commitments in 15 days the best two-week run in program history. The Vols now have nine four-or-five-star commitments in their group of 21, a blue chip ratio of 43%. There’s still room to grow to get the Vols above the 50% threshold teams need to hit to compete for the national championship. But there’s good news there too.
The current class has the most buzz, and rightfully so ranked second in the nation. That generated some poo-pooing from Bud Elliott at 247 Sports, who wrote on how unlikely it is that the Vols finish with the nation’s number two class. But for Tennessee right now, it’s not about whether the Vols can finish number two or number three or whatever. Everything for the Vols is about sustainable progress, and Jeremy Pruitt was already setting the pace through recruiting.
Tennessee’s 2019 class finished 13th nationally, then 10th in 2020. But their blue chip ratios (Bud Elliott’s benchmark) on signing day both came in at 56.5% (13 of 23 signees). As we wrote back in February 2019, those are the highest blue chip ratios at Tennessee since 2005.
We know the thrill of a top-tier recruiting class in early summer: Butch Jones did that before he ever coached a game here with a class that ultimately finished seventh (on the strength of 32 signees!). And we know the recent thrill of landing a can’t-miss prospect: Jones, again, was there with Kahlil McKenzie. Both of those are good teachers in no guarantees and the importance of player development.
But we also know how much of Jones’ 2014 and 2015 classes were built on great in-state years and an unusually high number of legacy targets. By contrast, Pruitt’s strong blue chip classes featured two in-state players in 2019 (Eric Gray and Jackson Lampley, a legacy target). In 2020 the Vols got while the getting was good in-state with six blue chip players from the Volunteer State, including legacy signee Cooper Mays.
In Tennessee’s current commit list, the top-rated players are from Florida, Alabama, Maryland, Georgia, Maryland, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina. Brentwood’s Walker Merrill is the class’s highest-rated in-state player at #11, one of only two players from Tennessee in the current group of 21. That too looks much more like an old Phillip Fulmer class.
If the Vols finish out with a handful of three stars, then sure, we’ll note that a class with a 36% blue chip ratio may not be deep enough to get the Vols where they ultimately want to go when these guys really start being counted on in 2022 and beyond. But even if that’s the case, the elite talent at the top of this group is already noteworthy.
On the strength of the national championship, Tennessee signed the number one class in the nation in 2000, including five five stars. They added three five stars in both 2001 and 2002. Since then, the Vols have added multiple consensus five stars just five times in 19 years:
2007: Eric Berry & Ben Martin
2010: Da’Rick Rogers & Ja’Wuan James
2015: Kahlil McKenzie & Kyle Phillips
2019: Darnell Wright & Wanya Morris
2021: Terrence Lewis & Dylan Brooks
As you can see, Pruitt has now done twice what no one, including Fulmer, did more than once after 2002.
There’s a long way to go through uncharted and uncertain waters. But we’re not just celebrating this class because we’re bored.
With yesterday’s decision by the NCAA to extend its
recuiting dead period another month to June 30th, let’s take a look
at a handful of ramifications for Tennessee recruiting:
It goes without saying that, along with Ohio State,
Tennessee has flat out owned the COVID-19 imposed dead period. The Vols have added 14 (!!!) commitments
during this time span, including two 5-stars and six 4-stars. This in turn has rocketed the Vols class
ranking to #2 nationally behind only the aforementioned Buckeyes and made
Tennessee the talk of college football.
So it goes without saying that, whatever Coach Jeremy Pruitt and his
staff – from assistant coaches to the social media and player personnel teams –
are doing is working better than what everyone else is doing. One might therefore argue that an extension
of this dead period, where no on-campus visits are allowed, is beneficial to
Tennessee’s efforts going forward. The
old “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.”
Due to the extension of the dead period, several prospects
that Tennessee is heavily recruiting won’t be able to take official visits to
other schools that were planned for June.
Most importantly among them, instate TE Hudson Wolfe – one of the
top priorities on Tennessee’s entire board – was scheduled to take an official
visit to Ohio State the weekend of June 12th, when the Buckeyes were
set to host Wolfe among at least a dozen of their current commitments. With that visit off the table – and his
mother was set to attend as well having never been to Columbus before – that
could hurt OSU (the presumed leader) should Wolfe want to make a decision
sooner rather than later. Especially as
Tennessee continues to recruit him harder than ever. 4-star DE Landyn Watson, who just
named Tennessee among his final six schools, was set to take an official visit
to Virginia Tech the following weekend, but that’s obviously cancelled. With the Hokies thought to be the leader in
that recruitment, this gives Tennessee more time to recruit Watson harder.
On Tuesday, the NCAA also passed a blanket rule lifting the
limit on phone and Zoom-type calls for 2021 football recruits during the
since-extended dead period. By pushing
that dead period back and month, that’s 30 more days (plus the rest of May)
that recruits will be subject to constant harassment from schools if they don’t
go ahead and commit somewhere. Now,
obviously, in this day and age a commitment doesn’t mean that schools stop
calling, but it certainly slows it down.
It also allows a young man to just turn off his phone for a while since
he’s secure knowing he’s got a spot somewhere that he likes and wants to
be. What does that mean? Maybe nothing. But it could absolutely accelerate the
timeline even further for some prospects who are already tiring of the process.
With 21 commitments already and a board of realistic targets
that in all honesty Tennessee would feel good about with about half that amount
of pledges, the Vols sit in an enviable position vis a vis supply (of
scholarships) and demand (number of elite recruits very much feeling the Vols
at the moment). And with the above changes
to the rule, that could put Tennessee in a strong spot over the next 45 (or
more) days as more and more recruits feel the urge to shut things down with a
commitment.
Speaking of commitments, Tennessee looks to be in a very
strong position to pick up #22 when TE Miles Campbell from South
Paulding High in Douglasville, GA announces his decision Monday May 18th. Campbell, already up to 6’4 and 235 pounds
vs. his listed 6’3 220, will be celebrating just his 17th birthday the day of
his commitment, making him pretty young relative to his grade. That leaves even more room for physical
growth for a young man who displays a tremendous amount of speed and body
control for someone his size. Campbell,
who has offers from Auburn, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan among others,
also shows the kind of willingness to block and take on contact (even as a ball
carrier from the Wildcat on a few occasions) that is needed along with the
pass-catching skills for what Tennessee wants in a TE. With Tennessee in need of two Tight Ends in
this class, Wolfe will absolutely have right of first refusal for the second
spot if Campbell does indeed commit to the Vols. If he decides to head elsewhere though, the
Vols do have a nice board behind him. Tennessee
is in great shape with Jumbo ATH Trinity Bell from Albertville, AL, and
appears to have a lead on instate Auburn.
The catch with Bell is that, at 6’7 and 250 pounds, he’s projectable at
multiple positions from OT to DE along with TE.
So in theory the Vols could take a commitment from Bell and still have a
TE spot open. Tennessee is also right at
the top for the #1 JUCO TE in the country in Quentin Moore and is competing
with homestate Washington – the Huskies may have the lead for Moore but
Tennessee is right there with them. Finally,
there is 4-star Nevada native Moliki Matavao, who has a top 6 that includes
Tennessee, Washington (see above with Moore), UGA (who is more focused on Brock
Bowers), Penn State (where he’s never visited), Oregon and UCLA. Matavao visited Knoxville last year and
appears to hold Tennessee in high regard, along with apparently having a
relationship with star LB Henry To’o To’o. Finally, of course, Tennessee also has commitments
from two Dee Beckwith clones in Roc Taylor and Julian Nixon, who
could both project as Hybrid WR/TEs
As long as Tennessee continues
recruiting like it has been for the last 4-6 weeks or so, no one in Knoxville is
going to complain about an extension of the dead period. And with the upcoming commitment of Campbell
next Monday along with a handful of other prospects who could be on the verge
of pledging to the Vols, look for Coach Pruitt and Tennessee to continue to
take full advantage and put on more steam.
They have proven that no matter the condition they are prepared to outwork,
out-evaluate, and outdo the rest of the SEC and, frankly the rest of the
college football world.
Had a chance to
interview Tennessee 2021 DB commitment Edwin White last week. White, from Mobile, AL, was offered by Coach
Pruitt as a freshman in high school withing week of Jeremy Pruitt taking the
Tennessee job and committed to the Vols in early March after a Junior Day
visit. Check out what the uber-confident
defensive playmaker had to say below.
Q: What’s your
current height and weight?
A:
“6’0.5, 196 pounds”
Q:
“ You were offered way back when Coach Pruitt took the Tennessee job,
correct? Talk about that relationship
A:
“I talk to them every day. I’m close
with all the staff, really.”
Q:
“How many times have you been to Tennessee’s campus? Talk about the experience
A: “I’ve been
on three visits. Just a chill vibe, and
it always feels like home there.”
Q: Do you feel
like you’re going to be a leader for your team? If so, what kind of
leadership qualities do you bring?
A: “Yes
sir. I bring commitment, determination,
and relentlessness. I lead by example
with those things but I’m also vocal with my guys.”
Q: Do you play
any other sports? Talk about those and
how you think competing in multiple sports helps you on the gridiron.
A: “I’ve played
basketball, soccer, and run track…hurdles my freshman year. They wanted me to play baseball, too. Playing all of those sports kept me in shape,
but I might not have time for any of them except football this coming season.”
Q: What have
you been doing workout wise during the shutdown?
A: “Ive been
working on agility, strength and speed.
I’ve got a spot I can work out with my trainer.”
Q: I saw you
tweeted that you knew Dylan Brooks was going to commit to Tennessee for about a
week. How well do you know Dylan?
A:
“(Laughs). Yeah, I know him pretty
well. We were supposed to play his team
in the playoffs last season, but they lost.
I also know Juju (Julian Nixon) well too. We’ve got a group chat with some of the
commitments – Jordan (Moseley), Dylan, Kamar (Wilcoxson), Juju, Walker
(Merrill), Roc (Taylor), (Jaylen) Wright, and Jay Jones. We’re working on Lewis right now.”*
Q:
Tennessee has five commitments now from the state of Alabama. Why do you think Pruitt and Tennessee are
having so much success there this cycle?
A: “The coaches
just communicate a lot and build relationships.
They talk about more than just football, which isn’t the same as other
schools. More like a family.”
Q: Any other
schools still contacting you?
A: “Kansas,
UCF, South Carolina…Georgia texts me some too.”
Q:
Which schools do you plan to see after the shutdown ends?
A: “I’ll
probably try to see Georgia again.”
Q: You also tweeted, ‘No disrespect to the class of 2020 or 2021 safeties but y’all stats don’t come close to mine at all. These ranking and stars don’t mean nothing and the people who are doing them never got on that field.’ Do you feel like you’re underrated? I mean, you had 9 picks, 6 PBUs, 4 fumble recoveries, 4 TFLs and a blocked FG just last season. Do you think that’s because analysts question your top-end speed?
A: “(Laughs) And
79 tackles, too. Of course. Look at the stats. If you take some of the top 2020 safeties and
corners, like (Texas A&M signee) Jalen Jones or (UGA 5-star signee Kelee)
Ringo, or the top 2021 safety from Florida (James Williams)…they’re stats don’t
compare to mine. When I was at Georgia’s
camp last year it was just me and Ringo taking all the reps and I did as well
or better than him. Am I slow? I’m a
kick returner. Ask other teams about me. It all comes down to guarding the guy opposite
you.”
Q: How does
that motivate you?
A: “Just to be
better. But once you get to college
things like rankings don’t matter anymore.”
Q: You
mentioned potentially visiting Georgia. How
hard would it be for someone to steal you from Tennessee?”
A: Pretty hard,
I don’t think it’s really possible. They’d
just have to really show me they want me more than Tennessee does, or Tennessee
would have to lose a bunch of coaches or something like that.”
Q: Lastly, anything
else fans should know about you?
A:
“Just that I’m ambidextrous (laughs again)”
White is clearly
a very confident young man. Genial but
with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder when talking about his competition,
he’s the kind of player Coach Pruitt and Coach Ansley love and a prospect you
can probably put in the “Underrated 3-star” and feel good about him outperforming
that ranking if recruiting services don’t catch up with Tennessee like they did
with guys like Jimmy Calloway last cycle.
White is all about competition and showing what he’s got on the
field. He’s got a longer relationship with
Pruitt than most recruits, so Tennessee fans should feel fairly confident in
his commitment sticking even if he does end up being offered by and visiting
places like Georgia, but that will be something to keep an eye on for an
important part of Tennessee’s secondary class.
*Interview was conducted on Wednesday, April 29th before Lewis committed on Thursday April 30th and of course the subsequent run that continued
If 2014 South Carolina is the decade’s most rewatchable game, 2011 Cincinnati remains one of its most rewatchable offensive performances. Tyler Bray went for 400+ yards, Da’Rick Rogers and Justin Hunter each had 10 catches for 100+ yards, and all three were playing just the second game of their sophomore seasons. It’s worth repeating: other than everything from the first half of 2016, no performance of the 2010’s made you feel like we were closer to being back than walking out of that Cincinnati game.
It made Justin Hunter’s ACL tear on the opening drive at Florida that much harder. Then Bray broke his thumb at the end of an eight-point loss to Georgia. Then the Vols faced #1 LSU, #2 Alabama, #9 South Carolina, and #8 Arkansas four of the next five weeks.
That part went about how you’d think; in hindsight it’s interesting to note the difference between Derek Dooley’s injury-plagued second team getting blown out by Top 10 teams and Butch’s last/Pruitt’s first teams getting blown out by Missouri and Vanderbilt. But in the moment in 2011, it felt like rock bottom from a competitiveness standpoint.
The building frustration led to Thumbwatch 2011; there was a great clip I can’t find anymore where Dooley, clearly tired of being asked about Bray’s health multiple times a week, just exclaimed, “He’s got a broken thumb!” When I get asked the same question too many times, that quote still plays in my head.
But Bray got the green light to return against Vanderbilt. This was James Franklin’s first season in Nashville, and after getting blown out by #12 South Carolina and #2 Alabama, Vandy only lost to Georgia by five, Arkansas by three, and Florida by five. Bowl eligibility was on the table for both teams.
2011 Vanderbilt is one of those games that wouldn’t matter much if Tennessee was “back”, but was really good in its moment, then lost so much of its meaning because of what we’re actually here to talk about today. The Vols went up 7-0 early, Vandy missed a field goal, then Bray threw an interception on the very next play. But he connected with Rogers on a beautiful third down touchdown pass to put Tennessee back in front 14-7.
We’re going along nicely from there, still up 14-7 with 3rd-and-goal with five minutes left in the third quarter. But Bray was pick-sixed, changing the complexion of the entire game. Vanderbilt took the lead three minutes into the fourth quarter. Tennessee made an epic 13-play drive to tie it again, capped by a fourth-and-goal touchdown from Bray to Rogers on a one-handed grab. And Prentiss Wagner ended Vanderbilt’s threat in regulation with an interception at the 35 yard line.
So now, the Vols are 5-6. More importantly, you can still believe the things you wanted to believe after the Cincinnati game: with a healthy Bray and Justin Hunter set to return next fall, this team could be all the things you wanted them to be. Maybe we’d even get a shot at redemption in the Music City Bowl as a nice consolation prize. Things were looking up: injuries took it from us in 2011, but we could really be back in 2012.
#6: All we have to do is beat Kentucky
Tennessee had beaten Kentucky 26 years in a row, at the time the longest-active streak in the nation among annual rivals, and the longest in the history of the SEC (since broken by Florida vs Kentucky at 31 years until 2018). Unlike Vanderbilt, which played in zero bowl games during Tennessee’s 22-year win streak from 1983-2004, Kentucky made the postseason eight times during those 26 years of losing to Tennessee, including the last five seasons in a row.
But they would not be going bowling in 2011. A 2-0 start and a close loss to Louisville were followed by blowouts. Florida won by 38, LSU by 28, South Carolina by 51. In November they did beat Houston Nutt’s final Ole Miss squad, then lost to Vanderbilt by 30. The week before playing the Vols they were feisty in Athens, losing to Georgia 19-10.
That loss knocked them to 4-7 and broke the bowl streak. Rich Brooks revitalized the Cats, who hadn’t made a bowl game since a two-year run with Tim Couch in 1998 and 1999. But Brooks led them to four straight seven-or-eight win seasons from 2006-09, including the memorable 2007 group who beat #9 Louisville and #1 LSU before falling to the Vols in four overtimes.
The rise under Brooks (and subsequent 6-6 campaign in Joker Phillips’ first year) made the Tennessee series closer, but didn’t change the outcomes. In those 26 years, only eight Tennessee-Kentucky games were decided by a single possession, and three of those came in 2006, 2007, and 2009. The Vols made memorable comebacks against Kentucky in 1995 and 2001. In between, including all the games against Tim Couch, the Vols won 56-10, 59-31, 59-21, 56-21, and 59-20. It’s like we were trying to make them so similar.
Sometimes I find that we talk about the current state of the Florida series the way Kentucky talks about us: either “surprise” blowouts, or an unbelievable sequence of events we can sum up in just a few words. Alex Brown. Gaffney. Clausen in the rain. 4th-and-14. The hail mary.
For us, they are particularly cruel and unusual mistakes. For Florida, it’s simply “finding a way to win.” For Kentucky against the Vols in the 2010’s, there’s a 21-0 lead with Jared Lorenzen, still tied for the third-biggest comeback in Tennessee history. A nine-point lead in Knoxville with 12 minutes to play in 2004, swiftly undone by (checks notes) Rick Clausen. There are any number of moments in the 2007 game, from the one yard line on the last play of regulation to just making a 34-yard field goal in double overtime. No Tennessee win has been of greater consequence in the last 13 years.
Even after the events of 2011 and 2017, when the Vols were somehow +4 in turnovers and completed a hail mary on the last play of the game but still lost, I’d imagine this mindset still creeps in for Kentucky fans. The 2017 game was almost a relief for us, the final nail for Butch Jones. But the last two years haven’t produced the results Kentucky fans had in mind against Jeremy Pruitt: blown out in 2018 with their best team since the 1970’s, turned away at the goal line in Lexington last fall. Kentucky still hasn’t won in Knoxville since 1984.
All that to say this: in 2011, you fully expected to beat Kentucky. But you especially expected to beat Kentucky on the heels of that win over Vanderbilt, when Kentucky is playing a wide receiver at quarterback.
Stats of interest from the box score:
Matt Roark: 4-of-6, 15 yards
Total Yards: Tennessee 276, Kentucky 215
Penalties: Tennessee 5-for-32, Kentucky 11-for-85
And yet.
Kentucky “drove” 62 yards in 15 plays to kick a field goal on their opening drive. Early in the second quarter, they blocked a field goal. On Tennessee’s next drive, the Vols had 4th-and-4 at the UK 31, went for it, and failed to convert. So the Cats led 3-0 at the break, but after that first drive had four punts on three three-and-outs. They opened the second half with another one, Bray was intercepted at his own 34-yard line, then Kentucky went four-and-out. The Vols punted. Three-and-out again.
When we say the Vols got beat by a wide receiver playing quarterback, it’s really the insult after the injury. Roark did his job in not turning the ball over. He did almost nothing else. But on 2nd-and-goal with six minutes left in the third quarter, and the Vols finally ready to quit screwing around…they fumbled. And Kentucky made one drive, including a 26-yard Roark scramble on 3rd-and-12, that found the end zone. The Cats led 10-0 with 14 minutes to play.
I still wasn’t worried. It’s Kentucky. And three plays later, Bray and Rajion Neal connected for a 53-yard touchdown pass. Word. Everything is back on.
Kentucky, as you’d expect, went three-and-out. But Bray was sacked on first down, and the Vols punted back. Kentucky got one first down and punted again. This time the Vols failed to convert a 3rd-and-4, punting it back from their own 26 yard line with 4:34 to go. And one more time, Tennessee’s defense produced a three-and-out. That’s eight for the game.
Needing a field goal to tie, Tennessee got the ball at their own 28 with 2:35 to go. Bray and Rajion Neal connected again, this time on 3rd-and-10, to move the ball to the Vol 41.
But two plays later Bray was sacked again. And then on 4th-and-17, he threw an interception.
It still feels surreal.
Joe Rexrode had a really good story on Derek Dooley and Daniel Hood in The Athletic this week. With almost a decade of hindsight, I’m not sure Dooley did any better or worse than a reasonable expectation of the guy who went 17-20 at Louisiana Tech and took over in mid-January. The biggest what-ifs with him are after this game, many of them named Sal Sunseri. But this is the game that made all those what-ifs carry so much extra weight. Losing to Kentucky – to this Kentucky team – cashed in any reserve goodwill he had. Tennessee fans really wanted him to work for a long time because he wasn’t Lane Kiffin. And the 2011 season in particular was full of so many legitimate reasons for the benefit of the doubt between the schedule and the injuries.
But none of that matters when you lose to Kentucky in the last game of the year, a bitter aftertaste that removed any benefit of all the doubt to come. A fun night against NC State led to a flickering moment of real hope against the Gators two weeks later, the Vols back in the Top 25 and ahead of Florida midway through the third quarter. But that lead vanished in quick and brutal fashion. The Vols were close a number of times against the rest of the 2012 schedule. But close wasn’t nearly enough, most especially because of what happened in this game the year before. The weight of the Kentucky loss carried over everything else to come for Derek Dooley, ultimately ushering in a new regime.
This loss meant a lot for Dooley’s career, but hasn’t changed much in the series overall, or Tennessee’s fortune as a program. The Cats are still trying to beat Tennessee. And the Vols are still trying to get back.
Had a chance to catch up with Tennessee WR target the other day. The Birmingham-area standout talked about what he’s been doing during the shutdown, the current status of his recruitment, and more below.
Q: What’s your current height and weight?
A:
“I’m 6’2, 185 pounds.”
Q:
Tell me about your game as a WR. What
are your strengths and what are the major things you think you need to work on?
A: “ My
strengths are attacking the ball, my jumping ability, and route running. I’ve been working a lot on using my hands to
get separation from DBs.”
Q: Do you feel
like you’re going to be a leader for your team? If so, what kind of
leadership qualities do you bring?
A: “Yes
sir. I bring motivation to my teammates
on and off the field. And I’m big on
showing younger guys the right way to do things.”
Q: Do you play
any other sports? Talk about those and
how you think competing in multiple sports helps you on the gridiron.
A: “I play
basketball, Small Forward. It’s helped
with my leaping ability.”
Q: What have
you been doing workout wise during the shutdown?
A: “Drills,
cone work, weights, and just a lot of running.”
Q: “How many
times have you been to Tennessee’s campus?
Talk about the experience
A: “A lot, I
think maybe six or seven times. The
facility really stands out. The coaches
just really treat you like you’re at home.
I’ve been to one game, UAB last season.”
Q: Who is your
main recruiter on the Tennessee staff?
A: “Coach
Niedermeyer has been recruiting me, but Coach Tee and I talk almost every
day. We talk about personal stuff,
football stuff, school. He’s just trying
to get to know me better as a person.”
Q: What do you
make of the recent run the Vols have been on?
A: “It shows me
they’re doing a good job getting players.”
Q: Tennessee
signed Reginald Perry from Fairfield Prep just this past February. Do you know him well and what’s he told you
about Tennessee?
A:
“Yes, sir, we’re pretty close. He said
he loves it there, that’s it’s a real brotherhood, and that he loves the
coaches.”
A couple of days after we spoke, Bennett put out a Top 8 of Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, UAB and Louisville and Kentucky. He’s been to all of those campuses except Texas A&M, but he plans to see the Aggies as soon as the visit moratorium is up along with getting back to Tennessee, Georgia (where he’s been for a game but not a campus tour) and likely the rest again as well. With Tennessee having recently gotten a commitment from Julian Nixon, the Vols now have four pass-catchers on their commitment list, so even if the Vols weren’t a ball of fire on the recruiting trail and likely more to come spots at WR would be at a premium. Tennessee continues to try with 4-star Donte Thornton from Baltimore and Deion Colzie from Athens, GA, though both look like longshots at the moment. At the same time, the Vols remain in the mix for a solid prospect like JJ Jones from Myrtle Beach, SC and is trying to get involved with recent Florida decommitment Breshard Smith, who at 6’3 and 5’8 respectively certainly are different types of players, with Jones obviously more of a “big WR” like Tennessee already has committed in Nixon and Roc Taylor. The Vols are also very much in the mix for speedster Malcolm Johnson from VA who boasts an offer list as impressive as his track times. Bennett’s physical profile is more in between those two, and seems like a good fit with what the Vols have already brought in. Just from the amount of time he’s spent on Rocky Top and his relationship it’s easy to see that he’s got a lot of familiarity with and fondness for Tennessee. Should the Vols decide to push for him it’s clear that they would have a very good chance, although he is definitely impressed with the UGA offer and the Dawgs in particular will get a shot to impress him on a visit if they want to. At the same time, he’s not in any hurry and doesn’t seem to be swayed by all of the momentum Tennessee has right now. So, this could be a case where it’s best for both sides to let things play out and see what the landscape looks like in a few months. In the meantime, don’t be surprised to see Bennett continue to pick up more offers – potentially from the instate powers – as his film is impressive as is his off the field personality.
It’s not on our countdown, but one of the best moments for Tennessee football in a decade full of lesser options came in early 2016: Peyton Manning beat Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game, won his second Super Bowl, and rode off into the sunset.
Manning had been Tennessee’s greatest hero for two decades. Not only did he rewrite SEC and NFL record books, he played 18 seasons at the game’s highest level. Thirteen of Tennessee’s NFL Draft picks taken during Manning’s NFL career made the Pro Bowl: Al Wilson, Jamal Lewis, Shaun Ellis, Chad Clifton, Travis Henry, John Henderson, Albert Haynesworth, Jason Witten, Scott Wells, Dustin Colquitt, Jerod Mayo, Eric Berry, and Cordarrelle Patterson. Arian Foster, a fantasy football god, makes 14.
Jamal won a Super Bowl in 2000 and was the NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2003 (the same year Manning and Steve McNair split the MVP). Witten made 11 Pro Bowls; only 15 players (including Manning) have ever made more. Berry made five, and would’ve made more if healthy.
But no one ever came close to Manning, in accolades and in popularity among Vol fans. Some of it was the nature of playing quarterback, and the absence of any other NFL starter from Tennessee after him. Some of it was simply Manning.
By the time he retired, the Vols had been in the wilderness for seven years. No offense to Nathan Peterman – we’ll get to him in a minute, actually – but no Vol quarterback had taken meaningful snaps as a starter in the NFL since Peyton. Tee Martin, Erik Ainge, and Jonathan Crompton were all fifth round picks. Tyler Bray, once thought to have the brightest NFL future of any Vol QB since Manning, ultimately went undrafted (but has found stability and success as a backup with the Chiefs and Bears the last seven years).
For a Vol quarterback seeking this kind of long-term legacy, the shoes to fill are large, and have been largely empty since Manning. And into all that stepped a sophomore quarterback we weren’t prepared to expect much of.
#7: Josh Dobbs Ignites
Speaking of unfair expectations, Josh Dobbs’ first collegiate action came against Alabama, Missouri, and Auburn in 2013. Those three teams finished the year ranked seventh, fifth, and second. Dobbs had some excitement around him because he was clearly a different athlete than Justin Worley, who was knocked out of the Alabama game immediately following a surge of optimism against Georgia and South Carolina. And the freshman Dobbs did his best against those odds. He was unable to lead a touchdown drive against Missouri, and the points Tennessee did score against Auburn (23) were quickly overwhelmed by the Tigers’ (55).
And then came one of the first crossroad games for Butch Jones: James Franklin’s final Vanderbilt team, with the Vols at 4-6 and still alive for bowl eligibility. These Commodores would finish the season ranked, and Franklin got the job in Happy Valley. Vanderbilt earned its second win over Tennessee since 1982 the year before in Derek Dooley’s last game; that kind of loss tends not to sting as much from our perspective. But this contest carried real weight for both sides.
Dobbs threw an interception on his first pass attempt, putting the Vols in a 7-0 hole. The Vols went three-and-out on their next two drives, wasting great field position after their own interception. Marquez North was out with an injury. And Tennessee really stayed away from the pass after that.
Dobbs’ final stat line in this game is 11-of-19 (57.9%) for 53 yards (2.8 yards per attempt) with two interceptions. But it was actually even worse than that: Vanderbilt’s infamous 92-yard drive to take the lead with 16 seconds left gave the Vols a few heaves downfield. Dobbs completed two passes against prevent coverage for 14 and 23 yards in those last 16 seconds, then was incomplete on the final play of the game. So before the final drive, Dobbs was 9-of-16 (56.3%) for 16 yards. I think you can handle the YPA math on that.
Something we found ourselves saying some leading up to the 2016 season about Dobbs’ ceiling – do they trust him enough to throw it downfield enough to win? – was first a topic of conversation about his floor. When you have that kind of performance in a crucial game against any Vanderbilt team, you find your way to an assumption from the fan base: this guy isn’t the answer.
Justin Worley was back for his senior season, Riley Ferguson transferred after spring practice, and Tennessee did not sign a quarterback in its (otherwise massively successful) 2014 class. Four-stars Quinten Dormady and Sheriron Jones would come in the next year, setting the stage for competition after Worley left.
I probably led the league in word count in defending Justin Worley in the first half of the 2014 season, so no need to revisit all that. But kudos to that kid for standing back there behind the greenest of offensive lines, which eventually led to him getting knocked out for the season for the second year in a row.
By that point, the Vols had missed a critical opportunity for the second time under Butch Jones: first Vanderbilt to stay bowl eligible in 2013, then perhaps the Gators at their lowest point since we started playing them every year in 2014. Tennessee imploded in the red zone, lost 10-9, and a lot of momentum Jones had built through recruiting fell by the wayside. After a win over Chattanooga, back-to-back top five opponents from Ole Miss and Alabama compounded the problem.
Against the Tide, Nathan Peterman got the start. With a fist-pumping Lane Kiffin on the sideline, Alabama scored a touchdown on its first snap and raced to an unbelievable 27-0 lead just 18 minutes into the game. In the stadium and probably elsewhere, you felt like they might go for 100 points and 1,000 yards.
Peterman gave way to Dobbs, whose first three drives ended in two punts and a fumble. And to be sure, Bama’s defense probably relaxed up 27-0. But Dobbs worked a 10-play, 84-yard drive to get the Vols on the board, then Aaron Medley knocked home three to make it 27-10 at the break.
In between the Vol defense stopped the Tide on its opening drive of the third quarter, setting up this from Dobbs: 3rd and 7 complete to Marquez North for 22, 3rd and 2 to Ethan Wolf for 10, 3rd and 8 on his own with a brilliant 15 yard pump fake scramble, then another 3rd and goal at the 9 and another touchdown as Von Pearson hit the brakes and they flew right by.
Tennessee didn’t complete the comeback, falling 34-20 after cutting Bama’s lead to 27-17 at that point. But Dobbs erased the memories from Vanderbilt and put possibility on the table. You only had to wait a week to cash it in.
I’ve called this Tennessee’s most rewatchable game of the decade a number of times. Unlike the options from 2016 that carry mixed amounts of frustration for what that season didn’t become, this game – as an incredible team performance, insane comeback, and the genesis of Josh Dobbs as the Tennessee quarterback of the decade – is pure joy. Honestly, Tennessee’s wild comeback against Indiana in the Gator Bowl is probably underrated because this one happened just five years earlier. The after-midnight-but-hey-it’s-daylight-savings! postgame is one of my favorite things I’ve ever written.
In his next-to-last start in 2013 against Vanderbilt, Dobbs was 9-of-16 for 16 yards and two interceptions before facing the prevent defense, plus 11 carries for 23 yards.
In his first start in 2014 at South Carolina, Dobbs was 23 of 40, 301 yards (7.5 YPA), 2 TD, 1 INT. Plus 24 carries, 166 yards, 3 TD on the ground.
