Gameday on Rocky Top

If you’re looking for a scenario where Tennessee upsets Oklahoma, the most straightforward one goes something like this: the Vols use their star-studded offensive line to go right at Oklahoma’s inexperienced defensive line, and Eric Gray/Ty Chandler/player to be named later do the heavy lifting for Tennessee’s offense. The Sooners graduated three interior linemen, and defensive end Ronnie Perkins is still looking at a suspension; OU will be relying on a lot of (highly regarded) junior college talent right away. If Tennessee wants to help Jarrett Guarantano as much as possible, a strong running game can be his best friend, and Oklahoma’s rebuilding defensive line makes for an appealing early target.

This kind of gameplan isn’t just something that sounds good on paper. It’s one Jim Chaney is well-versed in. As Tim Jordan is no longer with the program, one of the biggest questions becomes, “Who else can help carry this kind of load?”

Chaney, like all good coordinators, adapts and evolves. We looked at his career between stops in Knoxville in our 2019 Gameday on Rocky Top preseason magazine, and republished that story on our site a few weeks ago. After lighting it up through the air with the Vols in 2012, Chaney leaned heavy on the ground game with just two backs at Arkansas in 2014. Jonathan Williams had 211 carries for 1,190 yards; Alex Collins had 204 for 1,100. That’s 16 carries per game for each; no one else on the roster had more than 31 carries the entire year.

In week three that season, Arkansas went to Texas Tech looking for its first power five win in two years. And the Razorbacks won 49-28, with Brandon Allen putting the ball in the air just 12 times. Collins had 27 carries for 212 yards, Williams 22 for 145, and Arkansas kept the ball for more than 40 minutes, punting once.

Tennessee’s current talent level is somewhere between that Arkansas team and Chaney’s second year at Georgia in 2017, when Jacob Eason was hurt in week one and the Dawgs needed to help Jake Fromm as much as possible. In a Top 20 showdown in Starkville in week four, Georgia announced their presence with authority in a 31-3 beat down. Fromm threw just 12 times, completing nine of them for 201 yards. He was able to put up those kind of numbers because Georgia ran it 42 times for 203 yards, with four different backs receiving at least seven carries.

Fromm’s stat line in Georgia’s 41-0 win in Knoxville the following week? Only 7-of-15 for 84 yards with a touchdown and a pick. But Georgia ran it 55 times for 294 yards, with five different backs receiving at least five carries. In the Cocktail Party, Fromm went 4-of-7 for 101 yards while Georgia ran for 292 more.

Tennessee’s backs have work to do to get in the same conversation with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. But their carry distribution is noteworthy, even on such a successful run-heavy team: Chubb averaged 15 carries per game, Michel just 11, and the Dawgs supplemented them with 81 carries on the year for freshman D’Andre Swift, 50 from Elijah Holyfield, and 61 from Brian Herrien. Isaiah Wynn was a second-team All-American and first round draft pick at offensive tackle, but the whole of Georgia’s 2017 offensive line didn’t enter the season with the kind of expectations Tennessee’s 2020 line will inherit. So Eric Gray and Ty Chandler don’t have to be Chubb and Michel for this kind of thing to work.

And this kind of thing also allowed Jake Fromm to get better as the year went on. The Dawgs were successful pounding it this way early, and Fromm was at his best in the SEC Championship Game (16-of-22 for 183 yards and two touchdowns) and the playoff semifinal with Oklahoma (20-of-29 for 210 yards and two touchdowns). Guarantano certainly enters the year with higher expectations than Fromm did in 2017.

So, could Tennessee pull something like this off without Tim Jordan, or a breakout effort from a third back?

Last year Chaney and the Vols went with the hot hand: Ty Chandler averaged 10.4 carries per game, Tim Jordan 8.7, and Eric Gray 7.8. Jordan missed the BYU game (see Chandler’s numbers below), meaning on the year Chandler essentially got 40% of the carries, Gray and Jordan 30% each. And they each had a standout game:

• Ty Chandler vs BYU: 26 carries for 154 yards (5.9 ypc)
• Tim Jordan at Alabama: 17 carries for 94 yards (5.5 ypc)
• Eric Gray vs Vanderbilt: 25 carries for 246 yards (9.8 ypc)

Last season the Vols ran the ball 56.2% of the time (data via SportSource Analytics). Chaney’s 2017 Georgia offense ran it a whopping 68.7% of the time, though you’re certainly getting some fourth quarter blowout carries in there. The 32 passes Fromm attempted in the national title game were his season high. Brandon Allen, playing from behind far more often at Arkansas in 2014, averaged 26 passes per game.

Guarantano’s peak last fall included his best performance: after throwing it 40 times in the opener against Georgia State, he hit that number again at Missouri with 415 yards behind it. In 2018 the Vols were at their best with lower passing numbers as well: 32 attempts in the win at Auburn, just 20 in the win over Kentucky.

If Gray and Chandler stay healthy, the Vols may only need around five carries per game from someone else. Quavaris Crouch got seven short-yardage carries last season (for nine yards and two touchdowns, some straight up fullback stuff). Could the Vols got to him in those situations more often? Carlin Fils-aime is still on the roster. And local product Tee Hodge could get early opportunities as well.

Running it 56.2% of the time is about where the Vols have been the last four years, always between 56-59%. The 2015 team ran the ball 62.4% of the time, leading to plenty of, “Will they let Dobbs throw downfield?” questions this time four years ago. We already know they’ll let Guarantano do that. But if Tennessee elects to lean into the run behind their star-studded offensive line, Guarantano’s chances to go deep will increase. And it may be Tennessee’s best path to victory.

So far, here’s where the Vols’ units have ranked in the SEC heading into the 2020 season:

• Quarterbacks, No. 4
• Running backs, No. 4
• Wide receivers, No. 10
• Offensive line, No. 2
• Defensive line, No. 2
• Linebackers, No. 8

Today, we’ll look at the defensive backs.

2020 SEC Defensive Back Rankings

Additional comments

A recurring theme for the Vols is that their defense ended up a Top 25 unit in 2019. The DBs were part of that, and although they have to replace Nigel Warrior this fall, he’s the only one. Also, it looks like the Vols better be able to run the ball in the SEC East this year. 🙂

Georgia, again, is at the top, as the Bulldogs return most of their secondary from a stellar defense in 2019. They’re on a level of their own.

The next five — Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and LSU — are all bunched together. LSU may look low, but the Tigers’ defense wasn’t quite as good as some of the others, the pieces they lost are a little more painful (Grant Delpit, Kristian Fulton), and their recruiting for the unit was a bit behind the others. But it’s super close among all five of those teams. Tennessee, A&M, and LSU are all only separated by a total of 16 yards of projected defense.

Your thoughts

What do y’all think? Where did we get it right? Where are we wrong?

So far, here’s where the Vols’ units have ranked in the SEC heading into the 2020 season:

• Quarterbacks, No. 4
• Running backs, No. 4
• Wide receivers, No. 10
• Offensive line, No. 2
• Defensive line, No. 2

Today, we’ll look at the linebackers.

2020 SEC Linebacker Rankings

Additional comments

There’s not much to see here for Vols fans except to note that replacing Daniel Bituli and Darrell Taylor is probably Job One for the defense this season.

You may recall that we have Georgia’s defensive line ranked No. 1, too, adding fuel to our belief that as good as the Bulldogs’ defense was last year, it could be even better this year. It’s also interesting to note that Georgia’s sacks generally come from the ‘backers rather than the linemen.

Oh, and look. There’s Kentucky again.

Your thoughts

What do y’all think? Where did we get it right? Where are we wrong?

Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001 created and sustained elite expectations in the Vols’ non-conference schedule. It started with UCLA, Notre Dame, a championship squad from Colorado, and Donovan McNabb’s Syracuse. In the early 2000’s the Vols added Miami off their national championship and Cal teams who entered the season with similar expectations, while renewing acquaintances with UCLA and Notre Dame. And in the last decade the Vols faced Oregon and Oklahoma home-and-home, plus a string of neutral site games including the Battle at Bristol.

Tennessee’s non-conference slate to open the 2020’s is a little lighter, some combination of the program’s fall and rotating leadership in the athletic department. The Vols still have Oklahoma (2020 and 2024) and Nebraska (2026-27) on the docket, but the other marquee match-ups are the return trip to BYU (2023) and the Johnny Majors Bowl with Pittsburgh (2021-22).

In the College Football Playoff era, power five teams are required to schedule another power five team as a non-conference opponent each year. The SEC allows Notre Dame, Army, and BYU to fulfill that requirement as well, so the Vols are set with the Cougars in 2023. What is now mandatory for the Vanderbilts of the world has been the expectation at Tennessee for 30+ years.

So it’s interesting and a little unsettling to see the holes in Tennessee’s non-conference scheduling just a few years down the road.

John Pennington at The Sports Source and Vince Ferrara at The Sports Animal did great work on Tennessee’s future non-conference scheduling compared to the rest of the SEC. Tennessee’s power five slate includes no dates beyond 2027, while other traditional powers in the league have not only announced games into the late 2030’s, but have begun scheduling two power five opponents much sooner than that. Alabama will open with Notre Dame and Ohio State in 2028.

So Tennessee’s scheduling needs some work, and the athletic department has to be in conversation about whether to add another power five foe towards the end of the decade if the Vols want to keep pace. But the Vols have a more immediate problem: there’s a power five hole in their 2025 slate.

With games being scheduled 15+ years in advance, an opening five years down the road is problematic; especially so when you consider most of the power five options have already filled their required slot for 2025. Of the 65 power five schools, only the Vols and six others don’t have another qualifying power five opponent on the non-conference docket in 2025. And one of those six others is Nebraska, who the Vols will face the following two seasons home-and-home. So in theory you could work out a triple-header and play a neutral site game in 2025, but there’s not really a good existing option between Knoxville and Lincoln. And if you wanted to just make it a four-game series, the Huskers don’t have another opening until 2032, so it seems unlikely we’d play three in a row from 2025-27 then wait another five years to finish the contract.

That leaves these five schools who the Vols could theoretically pick up the phone and call today to get something on the books for 2025. Scheduling info from the good folks at fbsschedules.com.

Open in 2025

• Maryland: no meetings since the disastrous 2002 Peach Bowl, nothing in Knoxville since 1975. They feel our pain on rapid coaching change, and are a grotesque 21-40 the last five years, with the move to the Big Ten offering little kindness. If Maryland is the option I found most interesting, you can see how this list is going to go. One problem here: Tennessee never schedules Big Ten teams. Like never. The Vols famously played Penn State in 1971-72, but they didn’t join the Big Ten until 1990. It’s in part, I’m sure, to the number of SEC/Big Ten bowl match-ups. But Tennessee’s first home-and-home with a team in the Big Ten when the game kicks off will be Nebraska in 2026.
• California: An all-time day at Neyland in 2006, and a high-scoring defeat at Berkeley in 2007. Our old friend Justin Wilcox enters year four at Cal having improved the Golden Bears from 5-7 to 7-6 to 8-5 his first three seasons.
• Northwestern: Tennessee and Northwestern have only met twice, both on January 1 against two of the most successful teams in Northwestern history. The Vols won those two games by a combined score of 93-34. Northwestern was steady under Pat Fitzgerald until last year’s 3-9 finish. A nice trip for any Chicagoland Vol fans, but again, the Vols don’t schedule Big Ten teams.
• Washington State: Peyton Manning’s first start back in 1994. The Vols and Cougars have met five times, but never in Pullman.
• Rutgers: Seems unlikely!

So you can see how it becomes problematic to wait this long to schedule a game.

Other options get thin from here. The Vols could take an easier out and pursue Army, though the Vols already have the Black Knights on the docket in 2022. Army has just two openings on their 2025 schedule. If you want to run it back with BYU, the Cougars do have four openings at the moment. The real prize going the independent route is Notre Dame, but the Irish only have two openings, and one will go to Stanford assuming that series is renewed. Notre Dame already has Arkansas and Texas A&M on the 2025 schedule as well, so it’s unlikely they’d go for a third SEC team.

But there are a couple of options if we think of this the other way around:

ACC Teams Facing Notre Dame in 2025

• NC State: two games in Raleigh before World War II, plus the night we met Cordarrelle Patterson in Atlanta, but the Wolfpack have never been to Knoxville. Would they add a second non-conference foe?
• Syracuse: The Orange do have Purdue and Notre Dame on their 2022 schedule, so they’re clearly open to the idea, but they lack any cupcake in 2025 with Notre Dame, UConn, and Army on the list already.

Teams Facing BYU in 2025

• Virginia: The Cavaliers are open to two qualifying opponents in the same season. In fact, they’ll play three (Illinois, BYU, Notre Dame) next fall. BYU is Virginia’s only non-conference opponent currently scheduled for 2025. Virginia makes the most football sense of the teams listed so far: three straight bowls and they won the ACC Coastal last season. Charlottesville is a decent drive. Scott Stadium is small at 64,000, but not impossibly so. This could also be a Chick-fil-A Kickoff match-up; those games are currently scheduled through 2024.
• Stanford: Intriguing, as the Cardinal are one of the best programs the Vols have never faced. They’re open to multiple qualifying opponents, and will face Kansas State, Vanderbilt, and Notre Dame next season. If they renew the series with the Irish, would they say yes to BYU, Notre Dame, and Tennessee in 2025?
• Utah: This wouldn’t have sounded like an intriguing game in the 90’s, but the Utes have the football pedigree to make it so now. Three meetings in Knoxville, the last in 1984; the Vols have never been to Salt Lake City, though we are going to Provo in 2023.
• Minnesota: again, the Vols don’t schedule Big Ten teams.

Everything on this list is a better option than the teams that are totally free.

Are there any other ideas? As more teams start scheduling multiple power fives, more options become available. But most of the teams we typically think of as most desirable for a home-and-home – Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Virginia Tech – aren’t playing two marquee games until later in the decade or into the 2030’s. Tennessee was atop the list of Virginia Tech’s most desirable non-conference opponents at The Athletic. But the earliest that could happen on Virginia Tech’s schedule is 2031.

I did find one interesting exception:

If you can’t play Virginia Tech for control of Appalachia…

• West Virginia: To their absolute credit, the Mountaineers are already willing and able to play two qualifying power five opponents, especially when one of them is a rivalry game. They’ve got Florida State in Atlanta and Maryland this season, then they start renewing Big East rivalries with Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh while also playing Penn State, giving them two qualifying opponents every year through 2024. But in 2025, they’ve only got Pittsburgh on the schedule so far. You’ll recall the 2018 meeting in Charlotte was the first ever between the Vols and Mountaineers, and poorly timed from a competitiveness perspective. It’s a 6.5 hour drive, but the Vols are already headed up that way for Pittsburgh.

To be sure, the Vols could have something completely different up their sleeve, or a bigger name could decide to take the plunge and make Tennessee their second qualifying opponent in 2025. But if those things don’t happen, and the Vols are looking at a list like this and a ticking clock, I’d make these phone calls in this order:

1. West Virginia home-and-home in 2025 and 2028 (or play them in Atlanta in 2025, but this series warrants the home-and-home)
2. Virginia in the 2025 Chick-fil-A Classic or home-and-home in 2025 and 2028
3. Utah home-and-home in 2025 and 2029
4. Stanford home-and-home in 2025 and 2030
5. California home-and-home in 2025 and 2030

So far, here’s where the Vols’ units have ranked in the SEC heading into the 2020 season:

• Quarterbacks, No. 4
• Running backs, No. 4
• Wide receivers, No. 10
• Offensive line, No. 2

Today, we’ll look at the defensive line.

2020 SEC Defensive Line Rankings

Additional comments

Of all of the unit rankings this year, this one surprised me the most when I first crunched the numbers. Tennessee No. 2? I don’t think so.

But when I went looking under the hood to see what went wrong, I found that what was wrong was me. Apparently, that image of two of Tennessee’s defensive ends lined up on the same side of the line against Georgia State has the shelf life of Twinkies. The feeling associated with that obscures the fact that Tennessee’s defense improved all season long and that the line was a key part of that improvement.

The Vols were a somewhat surprising No. 6 in the league in total defense, 23rd in the nation. They were third in the league in sacks. Beginning with the Mississippi State game, the line started carrying its share of the load on the way to a solid finish for the season. And this year, everybody on the line is back, plus Emmitt Gooden returns. So yeah, Tennessee’s at No. 2.

Your thoughts

What do y’all think? Where did we get it right? Where are we wrong?

Gameday on Rocky Top 2020 should hit the newsstands all over the state of Tennessee (and select locations in neighboring states) today or tomorrow. You can also order directly from us without having to wear a mask. 🙂

With all of the uncertainty this year, we did print fewer copies, so while the magazine is headed to the newsstands, it could be a teensy bit more difficult to find this summer. So, skip the scavenger hunt and the face mask and order your copy now.

Why should I get this magazine?

As always, our Gameday magazine is More of Your Favorite Team and No Ads. Basically, we don’t try to impress you by adding content you’re probably not going to read. In Gameday on Rocky Top, for instance, we have 48 pages of content devoted exclusively to the 2020 Tennessee Volunteers, and the other 64 pages focus on the Vols’ 2020 opponents, along with their competition in the SEC and the national Top 25.

How can I get the magazine?

Here are the ways you can get a copy:

• Order a physical copy online for $12.99 plus tax and shipping, and get it shipped directly to your door. You’ll also get immediate access to a downloadable PDF while you wait for your physical copy to arrive.
• Order a downloadable PDF for $9.99 plus tax, and start reading immediately after purchase.
• Pick up a physical copy in your grocery or drug store for $12.99 plus tax.

Go Vols.

If you’ve been following along, you know that we’ve ranked the Vols quarterbacks and running backs both No. 4 in the SEC and the wide receivers No. 10. Today, we’re ranking the SEC’s offensive lines.

2020 SEC Offensive Line Rankings

Additional comments

The more I look at Alabama, the more I think Alabama’s going to look like Alabama this fall: Stud running back with a head of steam thanks to an excellent line paired with an able quarterback to manage and balance things out.

Much of my infatuation with the Vols this year is pinned on improvement in the trenches on both sides of the ball. This is especially true on offense, where Tennessee could roll out four former 5-star recruits.

But there’s a logjam beginning at Tennessee and going all the way down to Kentucky. The Wildcats are nearly as strong as Tennessee, with an edge in offensive productivity but a disadvantage in incoming players. LSU lacks returning starts, but makes up for it by recruiting well into a super-productive offense from last season.

Your thoughts

What do y’all think? Where did we get it right? Where are we wrong?

In previous posts, the Vols quarterbacks and running backs have both ranked No. 4 in the SEC. As we’ll see over the next several days, there are three other units that also rank among the Top 4 in the SEC. The wide receiving corps, however, isn’t one of them.

2020 SEC Pass-Catcher Rankings

Additional comments

There’s a lot of symbiosis in college football, and this is especially true among quarterbacks and wide receivers/tight ends. These rankings, for the most part, try to view the respective units without regard to the other positions on which they rely.

When you view them that way, LSU ends up on top, due primarily to the return of Ja’Marr Chase, who’s a monster. He is joined by Terrace Marshall and a bunch of others as well, so the Tigers’ pass-catchers are an able bunch.

Behind LSU, there’s a logjam of teams that look very similar. Alabama gets the edge for No. 2 with the return of Da’Vonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, but A&M and Kentucky aren’t too far behind. Florida’s an interesting study, as the Gators don’t really appear to have a superstar wide receiver, but do have an excellent pass-catcher in tight end Kyle Pitts and a swarm of other productive guys.

Why are the Auburn Tigers No. 5 if they return 1,948 total yards among their pass-catchers (third-most in the league) and tie for fourth in unit recruiting ranking? I have to look this up every time because it looks wonky the way it is presented, but there’s a reason for it. The rankings aren’t just based on returning production, but also on projected production, a number that isn’t (but probably should be) included in the presentation of data. The Auburn receiving corps loses very little from last year, so its returning production numbers are high, but its projected production is low compared to other teams because they weren’t very productive last year. It’s close, though.

The Vols rank a lowly No. 10 on this list. This is, by far, the biggest question in my mind for the team. A little peek behind the curtain, though: As I said, the calculations are largely based on both last year’s production and how much of it returns. There is a flaw in the system, though, in that it fails to account for good, experienced players who, for whatever reason, didn’t play the prior year. Both we and the machines tend to forget those guys. So these numbers don’t know about Tennessee’s Brandon Johnson, who appears to have made a calculated decision to redshirt last season so he could be available this fall when the team needs him more. We’ll see.

Your thoughts

What do y’all think? Where did we get it right? Where are we wrong?