Gameday on Rocky Top

Three weeks ago we had some fun with post-pandemic fantasy booking, creating a 32-team college football super division. It was a fun exercise to pass the late-July time, but only fun because Tennessee would easily make any cut of 32: if you want to know who’s most likely to be left standing on the other side of all this, follow the money.

It’s no surprise then, in the present, which schools from the Big Ten are arguing loudest for fall football in any form or fashion.

Last night, the Big Ten began hypothetically discussing what teams would do in the fall *if* the season got moved to the spring. It was contentious, as the bigger programs still want to play this fall. It marked one of the first hypothetical conversations about this topic.

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 11, 2020

Who are the bigger programs? That’s a pretty easy answer in each of the power five conferences. What might be noteworthy, from the data in our fantasy booking story, is how much bigger those programs are than their league brethren.

Using the Wall Street Journal’s list of college football’s most valuable programs from 2018, we noted distinctions in a couple of tiers:

Thirteen programs are valued at $500+ million:

• Half the SEC (Six traditional powers plus Texas A&M)
• Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State
• Big 12: Texas & Oklahoma
• Notre Dame
• ACC: zero
• Pac-12: zero

Thirty-two programs are valued at $250+ million:

• SEC: 11 of 14
• Big Ten: 8 of 14
• Big 12: 4 of 10
• Notre Dame
• ACC: 3 of 14
• Pac-12: 5 of 12

Sometimes the dividing line between the haves and the have-nots is easy to spot. In the SEC, Mississippi State ($223 mil.) just misses making it 12 of 14 to clear $250 million in value. From there, it’s a steep drop to Missouri ($122) and Vanderbilt ($81). A “no” from Nashville isn’t going to be worth much.

In the ACC, there’s clear separation between the top three (Clemson, Florida State, and Virginia Tech all between $275-300 million) and the rest of the league (Georgia Tech is next at $215; no one else is above $200). But those top three are starting so much farther back than the biggest fish in the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 ponds, it’s uncertain how much weight they carry among the other 11 ACC institutions in a basketball conference, even when two have rings from the last decade. Washington has a healthy lead on the rest of the Pac-12 ($440 million; Oregon is second at $348), but there’s no clear separation between an upper and lower class there either, and no financial superpowers.

Who wants to play in the Big Ten? Take a guess:

It seems contractually unlikely anyone could break ranks and play out-of-conference this fall. But if you’re looking at who might be itching for something different – especially if other power conferences do play this fall – it’s the top half of that chart. They can share revenue all they want, but the longer this goes the more it becomes about survival for college athletics. And the top half of that chart is far more likely to find a way.

So now, if so much hangs on what the Big 12 wants to do?

How much of that conversation is really about what Texas and Oklahoma want to do? Especially considering half of the remaining conference also resides in one of those two states with the same politicians?

I don’t know if playing this fall is the best idea or not. But if you’re looking for teams who are most likely to come alongside it, keep following the money.

There’s no historical context for a 10-game SEC season in the modern era, so sure, you can make the argument that this kind of gauntlet, absent any FCS cupcakes or mid-major challengers, is harder than anything else the Vols have faced before. But as the major talking point is how the Vols are playing five teams in the preseason Top 15 (in the coaches’ poll), it’s a good way to compare what the 2020 Vols might/will face to what Tennessee teams of the past have seen.

(For this piece I used the preseason AP poll data from College Poll Archive, which goes back much farther than their coaches’ poll data.)

Tennessee’s schedule, as you know, is always hard: Florida, Georgia, and Alabama are ever present, ever elite. Alabama has been ranked no lower than third in the preseason AP poll for 11 years in a row, no big deal. Georgia has been ranked third or fourth in the preseason poll the last three years. And though not quite that high in the present, Florida was preseason top five three times under Urban Meyer and eight under Steve Spurrier, including six years in a row from 1994-99. Those teams are always going to be there. The Vols have two top five and three top ten teams on their 2020 schedule, but nothing about that is unusual for Tennessee.

The Vols have also played a historically difficult non-conference opponent each year. Since the league expanded to divisional play in 1992 nearly 30 years ago, Tennessee has faced a preseason Top 15 non-conference foe eight times; Oklahoma would’ve made nine this year.

So, how does playing five preseason Top 15 teams (#3 Alabama, #4 Georgia, #8 Florida, #11 Auburn, #13 Texas A&M) compare to Tennessee’s recent history? Since divisional play began in 1992, only one season can match it: Butch Jones’ first year in 2013, when the Vols played five preseason Top 10 teams: #1 Alabama, #3 Oregon, #5 Georgia, #6 South Carolina, and #10 Florida. (Preseason poll only, so that fun doesn’t include eventual national runner-up Auburn or SEC East champion Missouri, which finished fifth.) Remember that?

In four other seasons since 1992, the Vols have faced four preseason Top 15 teams:

• 2014: #2 Alabama, #4 Oklahoma, #9 South Carolina, #12 Georgia
• 2011: #2 Alabama, #4 LSU, #12 South Carolina, #15 Arkansas
• 2009: #1 Florida, #5 Alabama, #8 Ole Miss, #13 Georgia
• 2006: #7 Florida, #8 LSU, #9 California, #15 Georgia

Again, the preseason poll is prone to error: the Vols beat South Carolina in 2014 and dominated Cal in the 2006 opener. It’s all perception at this point, and an accurate one to say 2020 would be one of the most difficult schedules the Vols have ever faced going in…just not quite at the top of that list. And those Butch Jones Vols in year one were both less talented and had their chances. So if we do play this thing, there’s still reason, even in the midst of nearly unprecedented difficulty, to see opportunity.

We said for weeks if the Vols added one of Auburn/LSU/Texas A&M and one Mississippi school, in any combination, Tennessee would be getting a fair deal. Turns out, not so much: the Vols travel to Auburn and host Texas A&M (for the first time! in front of few/no fans!).

https://t.co/h2WVUaEz16

— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) August 7, 2020

Our immediate takeaways:

The imbalance with Florida and Georgia hurts most. The Gators and Dawgs each play two of the SEC West’s top four teams, AND now they both play Arkansas as well, negating whatever advantage that already provided Tennessee. Georgia added the Hogs and Mississippi State to their already-difficult combo of Alabama and Auburn. Florida, who had the scheduling advantage before the pandemic, keeps LSU and adds Texas A&M while also facing Ole Miss and Arkansas. But the Vols will get Alabama, Auburn, and A&M. That’s two Top 15 SEC West opponents for Florida and Georgia, but three – including Alabama – for Tennessee. This is the biggest gripe, and the biggest block in the way of any dark horse hopes in the SEC East.

Arkansas has the most difficult schedule in the conference. Which makes sense for a team riding a 19-game SEC losing streak? One thing was clear: the league favored its best teams instead of balance across the board. One SEC West team had to play both Florida and Georgia, and the league decided it should be the Razorbacks.

Using the SP+ tier system from our mock schedule, here’s how each division’s schedules rank:

SEC East

• 9 tier points (most difficult): Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
• 10 tier points: Georgia, Missouri, Vanderbilt
• 11 tier points: Florida

SEC West

• 7 tier points: Arkansas
• 8 tier points: Alabama, Auburn
• 10 tier points: Mississippi State, Texas A&M
• 11 tier points: Ole Miss
• 12 tier points: LSU

For reference, LSU plays Florida, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. It’s good to be the king, apparently.

How the schedule falls is now the most important thing for Tennessee. Since literally half the schedule is against a Top 15 opponent, the Vols should really hope to see those five teams every other game, alternating between:

• Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M
• Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

But, as we’ve seen, don’t count on the powers that be in the SEC to show favor to a program that isn’t at the top right now.

One final note: Tennessee’s current athletic director comes from a time when the Vols welcomed anyone, anywhere, anytime.

If they play this thing, we’re gonna need all of that mentality.

Go Vols.