Gameday on Rocky Top

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine got coronavirused after Week 1. Turns out, the thing is not a fan of teams starting the season at different times, as it was programmed to use weeks as a rough approximation of games played. But when it came up against matchups that featured teams with unequal number of games played and, in addition, for which one team had adequate comps from this season while the other did not, well, it kind of threw up all over its shoes.

An entire weekend in the shop, and it is now good as new and able to contend with teams playing opponents at different stages of their respective seasons. Last week, it went 10-5 (66.67%) overall, 8-2 (80%) in Category 2, and 3-1 (75%) in the favored Category 3 games. That makes up some ground from the first couple of weeks, and it is now, for the young season, 17-17 (50%) in Category 1, 11-5 (68.75%) in Category 2, and 5-3 (62.5%) in Category 3.

So, off we go.

As a reminder, there’s a reason we do this, and it might not be what you think. That link also includes an explanation of what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 4 Picks

With yet another (and probably not the last) word of warning about The Unknowable, here are the Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 4 of the 2020 college football season:

The six games in green are Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

Even for a team on a six-game winning streak, little came easy for Tennessee last year. In the Vols’ four-game sweep of the SEC East’s second tier (South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt) – our first such sweep since 2015 – Tennessee had to come from behind in all four games.

That’s because the Vols struggled mightily on the game’s opening drive, on both sides of the ball.

Take out the win over Chattanooga, and in a dozen FBS contests last year, Tennessee’s opening drives ended this way:

2019 OFFENSE

• Three-and-out: 4
• Punt: 3
• Turnover: 3
• Touchdown: 1
• Field Goal: 1

The lone touchdown: 15 plays, 80 yards against BYU, ending on a batted ball fourth down conversion in the end zone. The lone field goal came after intercepting UAB on the game’s first play, then only advancing the ball a single yard from the 19 in three plays.

The defense? Well, they didn’t help each other out:

2019 DEFENSE

• Touchdown: 6
• Field Goal: 2
• Turnover: 2
• Three-and-out: 1
• Punt: 1

The Vols gave up six on the opening drive against Georgia State (short field), Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina (first play), and Kentucky. Especially when you’re looking for the upset, that’s not the way you want to get started.

So this made me curious: is this a pattern?

Different coordinators, but here’s what the Vols did on the opening drive in 2018 against FBS competition:

2018 OFFENSE

• Three-and-out: 4
• Punt: 4
• Turnover: 2
• Field Goal: 1

In Jeremy Pruitt’s two seasons and 23 contests against FBS foes, the Vols have scored a touchdown on the opening drive once, and scored points only three times. Of those three scores, a field goal at Auburn in 2018 was the only one against a Power 5 opponent.

The defense in Pruitt’s first year:

2018 DEFENSE

• Punt: 4
• Touchdown: 3
• Field Goal: 2
• Three-and-out: 2

So better than their 2019 counterparts, but still surrendered points on 45% of the opponent’s opening drives. In Pruitt’s 23 FBS games, the Vols have scored on the opening drive three times, and allowed points on the opening drive 13 times. Simply put: the Vols have to start faster. Play from behind for so long and you can only expect so much success.

I was curious about Jim Chaney here too, and was a little alarmed when I ran the 2012 numbers for Tennessee (all via ESPN.com’s play-by-play data). Even the vaunted Bray-Hunter-CP offense scored just three times on their opening drives, though they were all touchdowns. Those Vols went three-and-out four times, punted twice, and turned it over twice.

But Chaney’s run at Georgia ended with far more success. In his last year at Georgia in 2018, Chaney’s offense scored a touchdown on the opening drive six times in 13 FBS games, plus two field goals. Those dudes were not messing around and almost never played from behind.

Tennessee probably isn’t good enough to jump on everyone they play this fall. But even if they’re better than last year, you can’t keep falling behind and expect it not to cost you. The Vols got away with it at the end of last season against the SEC East. But a faster start in 2020 could lead to more breathing room at the end, setting an initial tone the Vols have struggled to establish going back to the Butch Jones years. I’ll be curious to see how they come out of the gate on Saturday night.

And now the real football season begins, as the SEC kicks off a 10-game conference-only schedule this week.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. Again, this means a little something different this year. We’re assuming you’re hungry for pretty much anything resembling football at this point.

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Not a lot to see here, but it’s Thursday night of a real college football week now that the SEC is playing games. And just the general sound of ESPN — the on-air personalities, the theme music, etc. — warms a heart.

Friday, September 25, 2020

This may be a maybe-maybe-not game for you, depending on how hungry you still are for anything resembling football. Honestly, I probably won’t catch this one.

Gameday, September 26, 2020

And finally, it’s the SEC all day, baby! At noon, we have two future Vols opponents (Week 4 and Week 8). The Vols are competing in the East, so we’re rooting for West teams over East teams every time to get a leg up on the standings. Kentucky’s no slouch, but Auburn should get them and help the Vols a bit right out of the gate.

The afternoon slot features our first look at Georgia, which should be downright frightening on defense but possibly anything but on offense. New Hogs head man Sam Pittman goes up against his former team, and although they’re not likely to score many (if any) points, maybe he can do something on defense. Woo Pig Sooie.

And then, finally, it’s Football Time in Tennessee, although it’s actually taking place in the Palmetto State as the Vols travel to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks at 7:30 on the SEC Network. I’m liking the Vols a lot in this one. But don’t forget to set your DVR to catch two other future Vols opponents in Vanderbilt and Texas A&M taking place in the same time slot.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the South Carolina Gamecocks. This obviously uses last year’s data for both teams, but assuming the teams don’t deviate too far from who they were in 2019, the stat matchups suggest that the Vols defense should give its offense plenty of time to figure out whether it wants to lean on the run or the pass against the Gamecocks.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

To the extent that last year is any indication (which is questionable), the Vols should be able to protect Jarrett Guarantano, and the offense should be able to convert third downs at a pretty good percentage.

Where’s the danger?

Watch out for interceptions, and brace for struggles on first down. If either one of those things turns out not to be a problem, that’s a very good sign.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

I’d think that Jim Chaney is going to want to test the run game against these guys. Even though it looks like the o-line would be able to protect Guarantano all day, South Carolina’s secondary appears to be a bigger threat to the Vols’ passing game than the Gamecocks’ run defense does to Tennessee’s run game, which should be much improved this year. I’d start there and see what happens.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

The Gamecocks were not a threat through the air to anyone last year, and Tennesse’s defense ranks well in defending the pass. They have a new quarterback this year, but we’ll see whether that’s an improvement or not. Overall, their offense is not much of a threat at all, so the Vols should be able to pin them down early and keep them there most of the game.

Where’s the danger?

Mistakes and the general wonkiness introduced into the system by the virus.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Do what you do. Focus on discipline and don’t make mistakes, and the defense should fine.

Special teams

Link to table

Assuming the Vols can find someone to fill the big shoes of Marquez Callaway in the punt return game (Eric Gray, Velus Jones?), Tennessee should have an advantage in punt returns. South Carolina appears to have an advantage in actual punting, though.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Not much to see here except that the Gamecocks were better last year than the Vols in the turnover game. We’ll see whether the Vols can make any progress there.

As we prep for the 2020 season, here’s a quick look at how the Vols’ national rankings have trended in each of the official NCAA stat categories for the past seven years.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Passing Yards per Completion, sacks allowed, 3rd down conversion percentage

Did not do well last year: 4th down conversion percentage, completion percentage, interceptions, total offense, scoring offense . . .

With the exception of the top four categories, this whole thing leans into the basement. We’re expecting to see some major improvement overall on the offense this fall, but we’ll obviously have to wait and see.

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Getting interceptions, passing yards allowed, total defense, passing efficiency defense, scoring defense, getting sacks

Did not do well last year: Getting tackles for loss

Conversely, with the exception of tackles for loss (which you would think would trend right along with sacks but did not in this case), the entire defense is trending toward the penthouse. We haven’t seen that much green since 2014. A belated high-five to John Jancek.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Did well last year: Punt returns, kickoff return defense

Needs attention: There really wasn’t anything the Vols were really bad at on special teams last year, but they could improve in the punt game.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Um . . .

Did not do well last year: Fumbles Recovered

There’s a lot of room for improvement in both penalties and turnovers this year. The team was not very good at either keeping possession or taking it from the other team last fall, and there are a lot of hidden yards in the penalty department, as long as fixing that doesn’t come at the cost of necessary aggression.