Our first impressions of Tennessee’s draw were pretty favorable: bid thieves moved some of the more dangerous mid-major champions off the 12 line, and by most any metric you’d rather play Oregon State than Georgetown in that department anyway. It’s easy to look ahead to Cade Cunningham, Illinois, or Sister Jean.
Skipping past the first round is also in our DNA: this is Tennessee’s 15th NCAA Tournament appearance since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, and the Vols have never lost in the first round as a seven seed or higher. Tennessee is 9-5 in Round 1, going 0-4 in the 8/9 game plus a loss as a 10 seed in 1989. Sooner or later, the first round upset will come for our NCAA Tournament bingo card…so how can we avoid it happening this time?
This is Oregon State’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2016, which was their first since 1990. You always wonder about some, “Happy to be here!” from the bid thieves. But that only tends to be the case about half the time:
If you exclude our SEC friends from 2008 and 2009, in the last decade major conference bid thieves won at least one game in the big dance four out of five times. Hot teams tend to stay hot.
Oregon State’s run started before the Pac-12 Tournament. After a February 20 loss to Colorado, the Beavers were 11-11 (7-9). They won three straight over Cal, Stanford, and Utah before falling to Oregon in the regular season finale. It took overtime in the Pac 12 quarterfinals to beat UCLA, but then they also took down NCAA Tournament teams from Oregon and Colorado to win the prize.
In the Pac 12 Tournament, Oregon State was the definition of hot team from the arc:
UCLA: 10-of-25 (40%)
Oregon: 10-of-19 (52.6%)
Colorado: 9-of-22 (40.9%)
Pac 12 Tournament: 29-of-66 (43.9%)
They shot 33% from three in league play in the regular season. 43.9% is how you advance.
We saw two years ago how any hot-shooting team can give you a run for your money. Not only did Auburn and Purdue hit 15 threes apiece against the Vols in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, Colgate did it too at a blistering 15-of-29 (51.7%), giving us all we wanted in the first round. Fifteen threes is the most any opponent has hit against Tennessee in the last decade, and three different teams did it over the course of those 19 days. In good news, only one team has hit more than 10 threes against the Vols this year: Vanderbilt went 13-of-33 (39.4%) in Nashville and still lost by 12.
Elsewhere, Oregon State is a team that generally takes care of the basketball: 82nd nationally in turnover percentage, so less likely to play into Tennessee’s greatest strength. They turned it over just 11 times in the overtime win over UCLA, and only six times in the title game against Colorado. They share the ball well, 25th in assist rate. Fortunately for the Vols, they do play into Tennessee’s second greatest strength: the Beavers are 304th nationally in defensive free throw rate. They love to put teams on the line, which can get Tennessee’s offense going even when turnovers aren’t available.
Tennessee never loses as a higher seed in the first round, but hot teams off surprise conference tournament titles tend to stay hot. Oregon State has been launching from three, but the Vols have defended it well all year. And the Vols have been excellent at forcing turnovers, while the Beavers don’t give it away.
In a match-up where it’s hard for either team to lean on its greatest strengths, individual performances can make the biggest difference. Tennessee’s only quality win without a quality performance from John Fulkerson came at Rupp Arena, when Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer went off. Those two almost carried the Vols to victory against Alabama. Is there a scenario where they’re simply better than what Oregon State can throw at them defensively?
In a pandemic year that encourages us to look ahead by default, don’t skip the first round. Survive and advance is still the most important part. I’m curious to see how the Vols will attack.
4:30 PM Friday on TNT, from the home of the Indiana Pacers.
It’s the time of year where everybody and their mother are looking for upset picks in the NCAA bracket. Here’s my list, in two categories: (1) Those underdogs I think are the most likely to make surprisingly deep runs, and (2) those dogs most likely to surprisingly win a couple of games but then fizzle out.
The list is informed by the GRT Statsy Preview Machine, which, as you know if you’ve been following along with us this season, is a toddler prodigy that looks brilliant one moment and then reminds your olfactory system that there’s a reason it’s still in diapers. For that reason, I’m not calling the thing the “SPM” or even the “Machine” in this post. “Toddler” seems to best get at the heart of the matter.
Underdogs most likely to make surprisingly deep runs
8 Loyola Chicago
So it wouldn’t technically be an upset if 8-seed Loyola Chicago beats 9-seed Georgia Tech. Or would it? Oddly, 9 seeds win 51.4% of the time while 8 seeds win only 48.6% of the time, according to this compilation by Boyds Bets. But really, that just means those 8-9 matchups are essentially coin flips, which is what you’d expect, right?
What would be a legit upset is Loyola Chicago beating Illinois in the second round, which they actually have a shot at doing, assuming they get past the Yellow Jackets. And if they do beat Illinois, why wouldn’t they also beat Tennessee or whoever is next? They might not turn into a pumpkin until the Elite 8, when they hit 2-seed Houston without a mask.
You might be surprised to learn that the Ramblers are 9th in KenPom. Not lying and not even wrong. They are first (in the nation!) in defensive efficiency, ninth in effective field goal percentage, third in defensive rebounding, eighth in allowing opponents to get to the free throw line, and inside the Top 50 in two more of the all-important Four Factors. For what it’s worth, our precocious little Toddler has them as 5-point favorites over the Illini and getting past the Sweet 16 before losing to Houston in the Elite Eight.
14 Abilene Christian
Teams sporting a 14-seed win only 15% of the time in the first round, but Abilene Christian is the Toddler’s pick for the Cinderella with the most staying power this year. Ranked No. 86 in KenPom, the Wildcats rank first in the nation in forcing turnovers and 12th in defensive effective field goal percentage, so these dudes have shields and moats and ramparts and turrets and other defensive metaphors. And with the exception of ushering opponents directly to the foul line, they’re not bad in the other Four Factors.
Abilene Christian has lost only four games, and two of those were to Texas Tech and Arkansas. Yes, the others were to other Who’s That teams Sam Houston State and Central Arkansas, and KenPom gives the Wildcats only a 25% chance of beating 3-seed Texas.
But the Toddler is gaga over the Wildcats. It not only has them beating the Longhorns in the first round, but beating them comfortably. And then they get past BYU.
And that’s when the Toddler begins to smell like the Diaper Genie, as it has the Wildcats distancing themselves from the other Cinderella wannabes by beating both Alabama and Michigan. The Toddler says that if he’s right, you have to take out the trash.
I, on the other hand, am currently continent of both bowel and bladder (at least for another couple of years), so no, I’m not going along with the little misfit. After all, according to this data from Boyd’s Bets, 14 seeds have a 0% chance of getting to the Elite Eight, much less the Final Four. Somebody needs to explain to the Toddler that 0% is pretty low. Imagine trying to limbo under a bar lying on the ground. Or, as Brad Paisley might say, there’s two feet of topsoil, a little bit of bedrock, limestone in between, a fossilized dinosaur, a little patch of crude oil, a thousand feet of granite underneath . . . and then there’s Abilene Christian making it to the Final Four.
Seriously, though, this post isn’t an exercise in making accurate predictions. It’s an attempt to identify which team is most likely to blow your mind. And I’m with the Toddler on the idea that that team is Abilene Christian.
This post will self-destruct when the Wildcats lose to Texas in the first round.
14 Colgate
I will not make a toothpaste joke. I will not make a toothpaste joke. I will not make a toothpaste joke.
KenPom has Colgate ranked No. 84. They’ve played only 15 games, but lost only once, and then by only 2 points — to Army, who they’d just beaten by 44 the day before. Among the 15 games, their opponent roster consists of only five different teams. Those teams generally rank in the bottom 200s, but when the Raiders have won, they’ve won by a lot.
Still, KenPom thinks they lose to Arkansas by 8 points and gives them only a 22% chance of winning. The Toddler likes them quite a bit more than that and has them sneaking by Arkansas, Utah State, and Virginia Tech to get to the Elite Eight, where they lose to Baylor. That’s a pretty good run if it happens.
I didn’t make a toothpaste joke. You’re welcome.
15 Grand Canyon
Somebody please tell me that Grand Canyon’s arena features signage that says, “THIS IS WHERE THE ANTELOPES PLAY!”
This one looks like stupid in all caps and two Os, because teams sitting on the 15 line advance to the next round only 5.7% of the time. But if any 15-seed can advance this year, the Toddler thinks it’s Grand Canyon.
Ranked 108th in the KenPom overall, the Antelopes rank 6th in defensive effective field goal percentage and 15th in defensive rebounding. They’re bad at turnovers on both ends of the floor — it must be terribly difficult to hold on to the ball with hooves — but they’re pretty solid most everywhere else. They’ve lost six games against a pretty weak schedule, but we are talking about a 15-seed here after all.
KenPom thinks Iowa wins big over the Antelopes, but does give them a 9% chance of winning, which according to my mathy friends is higher than the usual 5.7% given to most 15 seeds.
The Toddler has Grand Canyon (which has a 7-footer to throw at Garza) barely squeaking by Iowa and then going on a roll against a relatively weak bottom half of the West pod. But again, the Toddler has zero idea what zero means.
Underdogs most likely to surprisingly win a couple of games
13 Liberty
Boyds Bets says that 13 seeds win 20.7% of the time, and Liberty may be the best-suited among this year’s crop of 13s to do it. The Flames are only No. 97 in KenPom, but they’re 23-5 with a pretty decent schedule, having only lost to Purdue, TCU, Missouri, Lipscomb, and Stetson. They beat Mississippi State and South Carolina out of conference and got revenge on Lipscomb (once) and Stetson (twice).
They rank well in a couple of Four Factors stats: fourth in effective field goal percentage, 14th in defensive rebounding, and 19th in not turning the ball over. KenPom predicts a 73-66 loss (26% chance of winning) to Oklahoma State in the first round despite the Cowboys’ Four Factors numbers looking worse than the Flames’. That’s likely due to Liberty’s schedule being filled mostly with teams ranked in the 300s and Oklahoma State being on a tear recently, including beating Baylor (and West Virginia, twice).
The Toddler, though, likes Liberty a lot against Oklahoma State and then again against the Vols before losing to Loyola Chicago. This being a Vols blog and all, we considered spanking, grounding, and sending the Toddler to bed without supper, but we were concerned about teaching a young American to hate liberty. So we compromised with a stern look and a raised eyebrow.
12 Winthrop
Winthrop is a trendy upset pick, probably because of the hype around the danger of 5-12 matchups and because Clark Kellogg put the nation on alert only seconds after announcing the matchup against 5-seed Villanova. Boyds Bets says that 12-seeds win 35.7% of the time.
Sure, the Eagles are 23-1 on the season, but they’re only 91st in KenPom, and although they’re a good rebounding team and can force a lot of turnovers, the rest of their advanced stats are not all that impressive.
The Toddler does give them a 55% chance of beating Villanova, but that’s not much better than winning a coin flip. If they do get past ‘Nova, they might actually have a slightly better chance of winning the next one, but they’re not making it past Baylor.
12 UC Santa Barbara
The 12-seed Gauchos are in a similar situation to Winthrop. Despite losing only a single game since January 1, UC Santa Barbara is ranked only 69th in KenPom, and all of their Four Factors numbers range from 47 to 72. They’ve done fine in the state of California, and the Toddler does have them sneaking past both Creighton in the first round and Virginia in the next, but that’s only barely, and it all comes crashing down if they make it to Gonzaga.
First Four/11 Drake
Among the First Four, UCLA ranks highest in KenPom (No. 44). Drake is next at No. 53, and Michigan State follows at No. 56. Michigan State is crazy: Wins over Michigan, Ohio State, and Illinois (two 1-seeds and a 2-seed) in the past month, but a record of 15-12 and barely earned an invite to the First Four. Plus, even the crazy Toddler doesn’t have them getting past UCLA in the first game. The Toddler then has the chalk holding with 11-seed UCLA falling to 6-seed BYU.
Drake, though, could make a bit of a run, according to the runt still eating pureed vegetables. The Bulldogs are 25-4 with two of their four losses coming to Loyola Chicago. But they could sneak by 6-seed USC in the first round and maybe even string a couple of sneaky games together and crash the party.
Shoot. I should have used this opportunity to write the whole post like Archie Campbell. Abilene Christian, don’t forget to slop your dripper.
When you play from the 4/5 line, you run into three truths right away:
1.You’re probably going to play one of the best mid-majors in the nation in round one. That’s how, as the NCAA points out in their series on seed history, at least one 12 seed has beaten a five 30 of the last 35 years, and the 12s win 35.7% of the time overall.
…but thanks to bid thieves Georgetown and Oregon State, two of those top mid-major AQ slots fell to 13. And the Vols drew the weaker of the two thieves in Oregon State (KenPom #85 vs the #55 Hoyas).
2.Four and five seeds are projected to play the closest matchups in round two. That’s the nature of the beast. But this year’s S-curve has its imperfections, including Tennessee – the third-best five seed in the committee’s eyes – being paired with Oklahoma State, the third-best four seed.
On the seed list, there’s not a big difference between Purdue and Oklahoma State. In KenPom, it’s significant: the Boilers are 13th nationally, the Cowboys 30th. Other four seeds Virginia and Florida State are also in the KenPom Top 15. In short, if you believe in Mr. Pomeroy’s work, the Vols drew the weakest four seed. And we’ll all hold our breath with Cade Cunningham if we both get out of the first round, but Oklahoma State is a robust 298th in offensive turnover percentage…which is the very thing Tennessee’s defense does best, 14th nationally in defensive turnover percentage. Stay tuned.
3. You’re probably going to play one of the best teams in college basketball in the Sweet 16. Illinois would certainly qualify: third overall in KenPom, winners of seven straight including now Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, Rutgers, Iowa, and Ohio State again in a row, all on the road or in the Big Ten Tournament. That’s stupid good. And don’t worry, I’ve got thousands of words to say about Sister Jean’s squad if they get it done instead; they too would be favored over Tennessee right now.
However, this year everyone who didn’t end up in Gonzaga’s region has to feel like a winner today. That’s not to say a loss to the Illini next week wouldn’t earn the same, “Well, we went as far as we could,” good game pat on the butt. But it’s a much more interesting conversation going in.
If you use the S-curve and the seed list, the Midwest Region is actually the easiest path for the top five seeds:
Gonzaga
1
Baylor
2
Illinois
3
Michigan
4
Iowa
7
Ohio State
6
Houston
8
Alabama
5
Kansas
12
Arkansas
9
West Virginia
10
Texas
11
Virginia
16
Purdue
14
Oklahoma St
15
Florida State
13
Creighton
17
Villanova
18
Tennessee
19
Colorado
20
Region Total
53
49
55
53
Tennessee has played from the 4/5 three times since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Jerry Green’s Vols did it twice in a row from #4 in 1999 and 2000: both times they avoided the worst case scenario, and both times met a disappointing end anyway. In ’99 the Vols beat 13-seed Delaware by ten in round one, rejoiced when Missouri State upset Wisconsin as a 12 seed…and then lost by 30 in round two. The next year, the Vols survived a feisty Rajun Cajuns squad in round one, then knocked off the defending champs from UConn in the 4/5 game in round two, earning the program’s first ever Sweet 16 appearance in the 64-team field. Madness dominated the region, as the top three seeds all went down the first weekend, leaving the four-seed Vols as the favorite to make the Final Four. They led eight-seed North Carolina by three possessions with five minutes to play…and lost. It went better than we thought it would, and then it hurt more than we thought it would.
Ditto seven years later with Bruce Pearl’s second squad: more than avoided the 5-12 upset by putting 121 points on Long Beach State, then gutted out a win over four-seed Virginia in round two. This time Goliath showed up for the Sweet 16 in the form of number one seed Ohio State at 32-3 (15-1). House money, we told ourselves. Then we were up 20 late in the first half. Then we lost at the buzzer. It went (a lot) better than we thought it would, and then it hurt (a lot) more than we thought it would.
The 4/5 line was the right, fair place to send this year’s Tennessee squad. And, if you’re going to play from here, on your paper bracket the Vols avoided the tough mid-major, have the most favorable option among the four seeds, and dodged the tournament’s largest bullet from Gonzaga. If you’re going to do it from here, it’s a good way to do it.
Everything with Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament fate will continue to start with the health and availability of John Fulkerson. But if he can’t go, Tennessee’s performance without him today against Alabama was incredibly encouraging.
Credit the Tide for their steadiness, even when down 15 with 17 to play. Alabama is relentless on both ends, and Tennessee matched them today. Two of the nation’s four best defenses didn’t disappoint: the Vols forced 17 turnovers, 19 for the Tide. It became only the second time this year Tennessee lost when forcing 14+, still not a bad sign considering the opponent and the newness.
Uros Plavsic played what had to be the most minutes of his career, and I thought did well considering. Davonte Gaines got a crunch-time defensive possession and aced it against Herbert Jones, then grabbed the rebound and got fouled. Don’t let his two missed free throws erase the reason he was on the line in the first place. We’re going to need him again before we’re done.
Tennessee’s only quality win without John Fulkerson scoring 10+ points before yesterday was at Rupp Arena, when the freshmen simply took over. It was the plan from the tip today: Keon Johnson had 20 points on 9-of-16 shooting, plus nine rebounds. Jaden Springer had 18 on 7-of-17 from the floor, plus four rebounds and three assists. And they each turned it over five times. Alabama’s defense is the ultimate test this year, and they each got some right and got some wrong.
And there was no better available practice in Nashville overall than the Tide, and the Vols were still close enough to get one more exam: a game-on-the-line offensive possession, rare for this team that’s only played a pair of one-possession games all year. Victor Bailey rushed a three that didn’t come close with nine seconds still on the clock. Again, better to work that stuff out this week than next.
What of the bracket? The 4/5 line feels like a safe bet, which means you’re going to catch some of the best mid-majors or a team from “Dayton” in round one. Tennessee hasn’t played from there since 2007, so it’ll probably be a more interesting first round experience than what we’re used to.
But the Vols have to feel better about themselves, with and without Fulkerson, than when they came to Nashville. And after a rough go of it in February and early March, the Vols have now put together three really good games in a row against teams that should be seeded eight or higher in the NCAA Tournament, and Bama may still flirt with a one seed. That’s good to know, because that’s exactly who you’ll see in the Sweet 16 from 4/5 if chalk holds.
All that will come. For now:
#Vols coach Rick Barnes: I’m really proud of our guys. They’re excited about next week, and they should be. We’ve got a good team.
And that can be true whether Fulkerson plays or not, it seems. The Vols weren’t overly fortunate today – 7-of-21 from the arc, 41.7% from the floor – but made Alabama work for everything on the other end. The defense truly is good enough to be there every night, and it won’t be Bama every night from here.
At the end of a long year, the old dancing shoes still feel good on our feet. Where to next?
…which makes this a good time to point out that not only is Rick Barnes 8-6 against Kentucky, he’s 7-2 against Florida.
Moving forward, let’s start with Alabama. In the first game against the Tide, Jaden Springer got hurt after playing just five minutes, and Yves Pons sat most of the first half with two fouls. The result was lineup Wheel of Fortune: E.J. Anosike played 10 minutes, Olivier Nkamhoua played four, Drew Pember three, Davonte Gaines one. With no Fulkerson, we know the Vols can play Pons at the five and Josiah at the four, probably even when Bama puts Herbert Jones and Jordan Bruner on the court together. I’ll be curious to see if they also try the four-guard lineup with Vescovi, Bailey, the freshmen, and Pons. But either way, somebody else is going to have to play today, and possibly beyond.
Nkamhoua hasn’t played more than four minutes since the home loss to Kentucky on February 20. Anosike hasn’t played more than three minutes since the Georgia win on February 10. Can Davonte Gaines get in the mix? Who can give the Vols something off the bench in the short and long term?
I’d imagine Fulkerson’s status for the NCAA Tournament won’t be disclosed in a way that will impact Tennessee’s seeding. The Vols were on the five line in yesterday’s Bracket Matrix, and not all of those brackets took Villanova’s loss into account. Over at Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology the Vols are a four, with Tennessee’s Teamcast leaving them as the final four seed with a loss today, the final two seed by beating Alabama then Arkansas, and a three seed in any other Sunday scenario. My best guess would be anything from 3-5 at this point.
To that end, here’s what to watch for today, with seeds from the March 12 Bracket Matrix – you want the team in bold to lose:
Alabama vs Tennessee (5) – 1:00 PM – SEC Network
Arkansas vs LSU – 3:30 PM – SEC Network
Houston (2) vs Memphis – 5:30 PM – ESPN2
Oklahoma State (3) vs Texas (3) – 6:00 PM – ESPN
Creighton (5) vs Georgetown – 6:30 PM – Fox
Florida State (5) vs Georgia Tech – 8:30 PM – ESPN
Colorado (6) vs Oregon State – 10:30 PM – ESPN
The Buffaloes, of course, are a former Vol opponent, but at this point I think the loss would be more helpful to Tennessee’s seed. There are also great games between teams the Vols shouldn’t pass in the field in the Big Ten semifinals.
We’ll have to wait on Fulkerson’s health to really dive into NCAA Tournament expectations. But if you’re curious how far they might go without him, playing Alabama today can be a blessing in disguise. Get your feet wet before it costs you the whole season…and make no mistake, Alabama is the deep end. Let’s see how well we can swim.
The big picture conversation here will be John Fulkerson: first, his health as we assume he’s in concussion protocol. Second, what that will mean for the Vols against Alabama tomorrow and next week in the NCAA Tournament. The Vols got some good minutes from Uros Plavsic to help on Colin Castleton even before Fulkerson went down today; someone, whether Plavsic, Olivier Nkamhoua, or E.J. Anosike seems likely to have to give Tennessee something against at least the Tide tomorrow.
The Vols were up nine at halftime, and nine with 17 minutes to play when Fulkerson went down. They did a good job handling that moment, immediately pushing it to 13 off the flagrant two foul, and getting it to 17 two minutes later off a Santiago Vescovi three. Florida cut it to eight for one possession at 11:00, and otherwise trailed by double digits the rest of the way. Credit Tennessee for handling everything well before, during, and after Fulky went down.
This game was a great example of Tennessee’s defense making such a huge difference, even when the other team is making shots. Florida hit 10-of-24 (41.7%) from three, 16-of-18 at the line, and Tre Mann scored 30 points. But it never really mattered, because the Vols forced 16 turnovers, moving to 15-1 when they force 14+ on the year. And Tennessee blocked eleven shots, a school record nine of which belonged to Yves Pons, who tied the SEC Tournament record. If he blocks just three shots tomorrow, he’ll move into the top five for a single SEC Tournament.
Meanwhile, the Vols hit nine threes of their own on a surprising 25 attempts, cleaned it up some at the free throw line (13-of-18), and most importantly, they got it from everywhere. Uros got a deuce in his short stint. Fulkerson had eight before he left. Vescovi with 14, the freshmen with 13 each, 11 from Pons, 10 from Josiah, 7 from Bailey. I mean, look at these lines:
Pons: 11 points, 8 rebounds, 9 blocks
Vescovi: 14 points, 5 assists
Keon: 13 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists
Springer: 13 points, 4 rebounds, 3 steals
Josiah: 10 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists
That’s three guys who flirted with a double-double, and Pons almost had the big man triple-double.
A historical note we’ll keep making: after running to the tournament finals with Allan Houston in 1991, the Vols never even made it to Saturday from 1992-2007. Now the Vols will play in the semifinals for the seventh time in the last 13 years, still in pursuit of their first SEC Tournament title since 1979.
It’s only Bama next. After their performance today, it feels like an opportunity game more than anything, and one the Vols will likely have to chase without their senior leader. You can never be sure with the selection committee, but I feel like the Vols have played their way into the “no worse than a five seed,” conversation. It can only go up from here.
And more than anything, Tennessee found a new rhythm in beating the Gators back-to-back, breaking out of their late-season rut and playing some of their best basketball today, even when Florida was shooting it so well. We’ll see how far that can take them, plus or minus Fulkerson, tomorrow and beyond.
What will happen when the Vols and Gators meet for the third time today? Who knows. No Jaden Springer the first time, and the Vols got rolled 75-49. No Tre Mann the second time, and the Vols turned a 14-point deficit into an 11-point win as Florida made just three shots in the final 17:30. Everyone should be firing on all cylinders today…which hopefully includes Tennessee, after going 3-of-18 from the arc in Gainesville and 3-of-21 in Knoxville last week. And the Vols went 12-of-25 at the line the first time and just 8-of-13 the second time. The room for improvement is definitely still on Tennessee’s side.
The Vols are hovering right on the 5/6 line in the Bracket Matrix. Yesterday’s matrix had a strong consensus on the Top 11 teams in the field, including Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kansas on the three line. But there was a big drop in average seed from there to the final number three seed: Villanova, who then lost to Georgetown. If the matrix holds, that should mean a tight field from the last number three seed down through the first two number six seeds: eleven teams that could go anywhere from 3-6. In yesterday’s order with all seeds from the Bracket Matrix:
#3 Villanova (lost to Georgetown)
#4 Oklahoma State (beat #3 West Virginia yesterday, vs #1 Baylor 6:30 PM ESPN)
#4 Purdue (vs #2 Ohio State 2:00 PM Big Ten Network)
#4 Virginia (vs Georgia Tech 6:30 PM ESPN2)
#5 Florida State (vs North Carolina 9:00 PM ESPN)
#5 USC (vs #6 Colorado 11:30 PM ESPN)
#5 Creighton (vs UCONN 9:00 PM Fox Sports 1)
#5 Tennessee (vs Florida 2:30 PM SEC Network)
#6 Texas Tech (lost to #4 Texas)
#6 Colorado (vs #5 USC 11:30 PM ESPN)
In such a tight field from 3-6, the Vols remain in a situation where every game could be worth a seed. Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols as the second #5 seed right now, and their Tennessee Teamcast sends the Vols anywhere to the #6 line with a loss today to the #3 line just by making to to Sunday via Alabama and facing either Arkansas or LSU. Again, the windows are tight, and wins are really valuable this week.
How do the Vols get there? What represents Tennessee’s best basketball as we enter postseason play?
Defense is a given: the Vols are fourth nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency, and at the moment still the best Tennessee defense of the KenPom era, with those stats stretching back to 1997. It suffers when Yves Pons or Josiah James leave the floor, so staying out of foul trouble remains key. But Tennessee’s defense is also the best way to unlock the secrets of Tennessee’s offense:
Forcing Turnovers: 14-1 when forcing 14+
The most magical of Tennessee’s numbers. Forcing turnovers is the thing Tennessee’s defense does best, 16th nationally and first in the SEC in turnover percentage. When the half-court stuff breaks down, the Vols can still get it by creating transition opportunities here.
The Vols lost a Quad 1 win in this morning’s NET ratings when the Gators slipped to 31st overall. Tennessee is likely to have six Quad 1 wins regardless of today’s outcome: either beat Florida to get it back, or lose to the Gators but get the one in Knoxville back as they climb up the ratings. To get to seven, they’ll have to win Saturday.
The point is, three of Tennessee’s five current Quad 1 wins featured the most turnovers the Vols have created this season: 22 against Colorado, 20 at Missouri, 20 vs Arkansas (via sports-reference). Tennessee’s lone loss at 14+ is at Ole Miss, where 17 turnovers couldn’t overcome a bunch of weirdness.
Can they win without it? Yes: the Vols got 13 at Rupp, so right on the line. But if you want the, “What if they just made shots,” experiment, that’s Kansas: 53% from the floor, 8-of-13 from the arc, 16-of-17 at the line. If that kind of shooting performance shows up this week or beyond, the Vols will beat anyone not named Gonzaga. The Jayhawks turned it over just seven times and lost by 19 points. They’re 9-2 with an overtime loss and a 13-point win over Baylor since then. If the Vols can’t force turnovers, they need shots to fall to win.
Get to the line (and make them): 87-of-131 (66%) in losses
Again, if the half-court offense isn’t working, get to the line. The Vols are a good free-throw shooting team overall (74.5%, 62nd nationally), and led the SEC in free throw rate. It’s the thing a herky-jerky offense does best.
But in four of Tennessee’s losses (Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss), the Vols missed 36 free throws. And at Auburn, Tennessee got to the line for just ten attempts.
Part of getting there means relying on how the game is being officiated; some of Tennessee’s worst basketball would then come from Pons and Josiah getting in foul trouble but the Vols not getting those calls on the other end. It’s a little more reliant on officiating than you’d like.
An important, freshman-related sub-plot here: Jaden Springer is probably the most underrated component of Tennessee’s offense. He’s 82nd nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, shoots 80.4% at the line, and is 18-of-39 (46.2%) from three, even though he doesn’t always take them. It might be a little late in the game to get more threes from him into the offense, but having him go to the rim is a big part of what Tennessee already does well. Keon Johnson does it really well too, 111th nationally in fouls drawn per 40. But the Vols are 16-3 when Keon takes less than 12 shots, 1-4 when he takes 12 or more. That’s not Keon’s fault, that’s the, “Nothing else is working, Keon do something,” offense showing up. The one in that 1-4 is Rupp Arena, but I don’t think Kentucky (or any of us) were prepared for what happened that night, and had a good bit to do with our next main point.
Can they win without it? They just did: only 8-of-13 at the line against the Gators, but that matters less when the other team simply can’t score. If the Vols can’t get to (and convert at) the line, they need their very best defensive basketball to win.
John Fulkerson: 13-1 when he scores 10+
Fulkerson is certainly a part of getting to the free throw line. And again, I don’t think the Vols need 2020 All-SEC John Fulkerson, who averaged 14 and 6, to get their best basketball in 2021. But ten is an important number for him.
In Tennessee’s losses, Fulkerson had four at Auburn, at LSU, and vs Kentucky. He had seven against Alabama and Missouri: against the Tide he went 3-of-8 at the line, against the Tigers he attempted a single free throw. And he had eight at Ole Miss.
In good news for today, the one exception to this rule was the game in Gainesville, when Fulkerson had 15 points. Two of his best games of the season have come against Florida. The Vols are 9-1 when Fulkerson simply attempts eight shots or more, Gainesville also being the exception.
He doesn’t have to carry this team, he just needs to carry his weight. Senior Day was very promising. Let’s see what happens in round three with Florida.
Can they win without it? See Rupp Arena, 2021 edition. But Tennessee’s other wins with Fulkerson in single digits came against bad teams, or the 56-53 slog against Mississippi State. If Fulkerson doesn’t score double digits, you’ll need the freshmen to go supernova. After the first round of the NCAA Tournament, is that a realistic scenario?
Only big basketball games from here boys and girls. Let’s keep the party going.
[UPDATE 3.14.21] We’ve updated this post following Thursday’s action. A coin flip between Kentucky and Mississippi State went the other way by a point, but changes nothing about the remaining projections.
[UPDATE 3.13.21] And now we’ve updated following Friday’s action. No surprises Friday (except for a sucker elbow or two), so we’re still pinning our hopes on a probably-undermanned Vols team pulling an even bigger upset Saturday afternoon against a rolling Alabama squad.
[UPDATE 3.14.21] The Vols lost their opportunity to upset Alabama Saturday, and so won’t get a chance against LSU today. Shame, too, as the machine would have liked them to win that one. As it is, it’s predicting Alabama to beat LSU for the tournament championship in addition to the regular season championship.
For you busy types: The most likely path for the Vols to win the SEC Tournament this week would be to win the games they should be favored to win, win as a slight underdog to Alabama, and have Arkansas lose to a slight underdog in Missouri on the other side of the bracket.
Now for those of you holding warm cups of coffee:
We haven’t been publishing the results of the GRT Hoops Statsy Preview Machine this season because it’s still an angsty teenager. It has real promise, but it’s still in that frightening stage where it will make you beam with parental pride one minute and squirt zit juice onto the mirror the next.
Since I started tracking it back in early January, the machine has projected the correct winner about 69% of the time. That may sound low until you realize that literally hundreds of games are decided by a single possession. Against the spread, the machine currently at 52.8%. When its projection deviates from the Vegas spread by at least 9 points, it’s 55.99%, and when it deviates by at least 20, it’s 73.91%. Unlike in football, there does not appear to be a “sweet spot,” meaning it’s results get better as its projections get further away from the Vegas spreads. I’ve been tracking the results of the machine based on the two best comps, the five best comps, the 10 best comps, and all comps and found that the 10 best comps version almost always gets the best results. In some cases, all comps is slightly better. What I haven’t been able to track yet is what happens if it only uses the 10 most recent comps. I suspect that will improve the results, but it’s yet to be tested.
So, take all of that for what it’s worth, but I’ve run the SEC men’s basketball bracket through the machine to see what it thinks. The results are below and point to a path where Tennessee could hoist the trophy on Sunday. For easy reference, here’s the 2020-21 SEC men’s basketball tournament bracket with all of the tip times and broadcasts.
Wednesday, March 10
VU 79 TAM 68
Lower Seed
Projected Winner
Win %
Result
12 Vanderbilt
13 Texas A&M
Vanderbilt
52.8%
VU 79 TAM 68
[UPDATE: 3.11.21] So far, so good.
Thursday, March 11
OM 76 SC 59
Lower Seed
Projected Winner
Win %
Result
8 Kentucky
9 Mississippi State
Kentucky
51.9%
MSU 74 KY 73
5 Florida
12 Vanderbilt
Florida
75.1%
FL69 VU 63
7 Missouri
10 Georgia
Missouri
75.1%
MO 73 GA 70
6 Ole Miss
11 South Carolina
Ole Miss
86.7%
OM 76 SC 59
The odds are pretty good that the chalk holds today, although it looks like that 8 vs. 9 matchup between Kentucky and Mississippi State could really go either way. Sounds funky, right? But the Wildcats needed double overtime to beat the Bulldogs back on January 2, so maybe it’s not so weird. But wait, haven’t they gotten a lot better since New Year’s? I suppose, but they are still 4-5 since February and 1-2 in their last three outings.
[UPDATE: 3.12.21] Yep, the Kentucky-Mississippi State game was basically a toss-up, as the Bulldogs won by a single point. With the exception of being just on the other side of that coin-flip, the machine earns a pat on the back for this day.
Friday, March 12
LSU 76 OM 73
Lower Seed
Projected Winner
Win %
Result
1 Alabama
8 Kentucky
Alabama
76.9%
1 Alabama
9 Mississippi State
Alabama
76.9%
AL 85 MSU 48
4 Tennessee
5 Florida
Tennessee
61.5%
TN 78 FL 66
2 Arkansas
7 Missouri
Arkansas
61.5%
AR 70 MO 64
3 LSU
6 Ole Miss
LSU
71.5%
LSU 76 OM 73
It’s chalk all day long on Friday, although Tennessee looks vulnerable to me just because no number is trustworthy when it comes to the Vols this season.
Surprisingly, Arkansas may also be somewhat vulnerable to Missouri Friday afternoon. The Hogs have been rolling (do Hogs roll?) as of late, but most of their February win streak has come against unranked teams (with the notable exception of No. 6 Alabama.) Also, Arkansas needed overtime to beat Missouri on February 13. So watch that one. It could have important implications for Sunday.
[UPDATE 3.12.21] Mississippi State beating Kentucky by one point on Thursday changes nothing but the names going forward.
[UPDATE 3.13.21] Yep, chalk all day long Friday. Missouri was unable to pull off the upset against the Hogs, much to our distress. But we’ll worry about that if we are able to get past Alabama at 1:00 Saturday on ESPN.
Saturday, March 13
AL 73 TN 68
Lower Seed
Projected Winner
Win %
Result
1 Alabama
4 Tennessee
Alabama
55.6%
AL 73 TN 68
2 Arkansas
3 LSU
Arkansas
71.5%
LSU 78 AR 71
This is where the numbers say Tennessee bows out, but they’re not especially confident about it. Like every game since mid-January, it all depends on which Vols team shows up. They’re only a slight underdog, and if it’s the right team at the right time, this is where they could get over the hump.
[UPDATE 3.13.31] This morning, the machine likes the Vols less than it did when the original predictions were made Thursday morning. It currently has Alabama winning by 6 and giving them a 72% chance of winning. Vegas, however, is slightly more optimistic, putting the line at Alabama -4.5, a 66% chance of winning. We’ll see. Fulkerson is doubtful.
[UPDATE 3.14.21] Tennessee looked like they might get it done against favorite Alabama Saturday, but alas, the Tide caught up and did the good guys in. LSU did pull off the upset against the Hogs, though, so that’s the first real miss for the machine in the tournament.
Sunday, March 14
Higher Seed
Lower Seed
Projected Winner
Win %
1 Alabama
2 Arkansas
Arkansas
55.7%
1 Alabama
3 LSU
Alabama
77%
Assuming this is the championship matchup, it should be a good one. Our machine likes the underdog to win a close one.
[UPDATE 3.14.21] Although the machine liked 2 seed Arkansas over 1 seed Alabama, it does not like 3 seed LSU over the Tide at all. We’ll see.
What ifs
[UPDATE 3.14.21] With the lost opportunity against Alabama Saturday, there are no more what ifs for the Vols. I’ve left everything below for the record.
What if Tennessee gets past Alabama on Saturday and meets Arkansas on Sunday? The Hogs would have a 71.5% chance of winning that one, according to our machine. Bad news.
Okay, but what if Tennessee makes it to Sunday and meets a Missouri team that knocked out Arkansas on Friday? That, my friends, would give the Vols their own 71.5% chance of winning. Good news.
And what if it’s LSU representing the other side of the bracket on Sunday? Tennessee would have a 55.6% chance of winning. Maybe kinda good news?
So . . . anything can happen, of course, but the path with the fewest thistles and snakes appears to be the following:
Tennessee beats Florida Friday, wins as a slight underdog to Alabama on Saturday, and advances to Sunday.
Meanwhile, Missouri knocks Arkansas out Friday, and either Missouri or LSU make it to Sunday.
As long Arkansas does not emerge from the other side of the bracket, the Vols would only need to win one game as a slight underdog.
Two days off a huge Senior Day win over Florida, and one year removed from everything being shut down…this is a good week in Big Orange Country.
And of all the good things that have happened for Tennessee basketball in the last 15 years, the scenario this team finds itself in is actually the one we’ve experienced least. We’re much more familiar with…
Obvious top seed (2006, 2008, 2018, 2019)
The bubble (2009, 2011-14, 2020)
The Tyndall-Barnes transition years (2015-17)
Only twice in these last 15 years have the Vols found themselves in our current predicament: we know it may not be on the top lines of any region, but we know we’re in. And from this position, Tennessee actually had two of its best tournament opportunities.
In 2007, the Vols were 22-10 (10-6) on Selection Sunday. Chris Lofton sprained his ankle halfway through the year, and the Vols lost six of eight. But then they won seven of their next eight before the curse of the Georgia Dome got us again in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee earned a five seed, put up a then-school record 121 points on Long Beach State in the first round, and beat Virginia in the 4/5 second round game when Ryan Childress and Chris Lofton made eight straight free throws in the final 30 seconds. If you’re old enough, you know the pleasure and the pain of what happened next: the Vols jumped out to a 20-point lead on the Greg Oden/Mike Conley Ohio State Buckeyes, but lost 85-84. A bananas stat from that game: the Vols shot 16-of-31 from the arc but just 8-of-17 from the line.
Three years later, Tennessee got their revenge in similar fashion. This time Tennessee was 25-8 (11-5) on Selection Sunday, and felt disrespected in falling to the six line. The Vols battled through Kawhi Leonard and San Diego State in round one, then made the madness work in their favor, beating 14-seed Ohio after they disposed of 3-seed Georgetown. And then, the Buckeyes: Evan Turner scored 31, but the Vols traded San Antonio for Saint Louis in a 77-74 thriller. Two days later, the Vols were one possession from the Final Four.
So even if these Vols don’t earn the highest seed we’ve seen under Pearl, Cuonzo, or Barnes, there will be opportunities to advance. Where exactly will the Vols fall on the seed line? In the 117 brackets submitted on March 8 in the Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s average seed is 5.67. The Vols are the top six seed there today, and the second five seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. On Torvik’s site, Tennessee’s resume is most similar to teams that earn an average seed of 5.4 in the NCAA Tournament, so that all tracks.
When I played with the Teamcast yesterday at Torvik’s site, there are scenarios where each win in the SEC Tournament could be worth a seed, if chalk holds:
Lose to Florida and stay at 5
Beat Florida, lose to Alabama, move up to 4
Beat Florida, beat Alabama, lose to Arkansas, move up to 3
Beat Florida, beat Alabama, beat Arkansas, move up to 2
For the field as a whole, there’s plenty to watch. Using Tennessee’s neighbors in the Bracket Matrix, here’s a viewing guide for the next few days of Championship Week. Generally speaking, you want the teams we’ve listed with the Bracket Matrix seeds in bold to lose, with the possible exceptions of Vol opponents like Colorado and Missouri.
Down 31-17 with five minutes to play in the first half, there were plenty of thoughts about what we had to let go of. Expectations, whether preseason leftovers or stubborn through the winter, were all getting a little slippery. Florida beat the Vols by 26 on January 19, and looked very much in control today even without Tre Mann.
I don’t know much for sure about this team, but whatever it does well in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, defense will be a part of it. The Vols made a run because they held Florida to two points over those last five minutes (and zero in the last 3:37). The offense was a little slower to come along, but Victor Bailey, Keon Johnson, John Fulkerson, and free throws all had a role in getting it down to five at the break.
The Gators got three buckets in the first 2:22 of the second half, keeping the lead at seven. Their next made shot came seven minutes and twelve seconds later, which cut a Tennessee lead to four. Their next made shot came three minutes and twenty second after that, which cut a Tennessee lead to eight. Then nothing else until 3:30. Then nothing else.
Florida made only 20 shots today. In the last 17:30, they made three.
Along the way, the Vols forced 16 turnovers, ending the regular season 14-1 when they force 14+. Tennessee shot just 3-of-21 from the arc, the worst performance of the year. And the Vols went just 8-of-13 from the line.
But Tennessee won because it got 14 points from John Fulkerson in the first 22 minutes on senior day. And then, perhaps because the old Fulky showed up, some things opened up for the rest of the Vol offense the rest of the way home. While Florida was making just three shots in the final 17:30, the Vols got buckets from Pons, Bailey, Springer, Vescovi, Bailey, Springer, Bailey, Pons, Keon, Keon, Josiah, Keon, and Keon. Young #45 certainly had the motor for the final minutes. Old #10 made sure those minutes had a chance to matter.
And so Tennessee won, 65-54 on Senior Day. The Vols earn a double bye in the SEC Tournament and, if the bracket holds, will see the Gators again on Friday.
The Vols won their seventh SEC game by 10+ points; only 2008 (eight), 2014 (nine), and 2019 (12) had more. And sure, they lost three SEC games by 10+ points; only 2007 and 2010 (four each) had more among Tennessee’s recent NCAA Tournament teams. But not only is this pandemic year an opportunity to be thankful this season existed at all…this Tennessee team has given us a handful of memories that will last, including today. Missouri, Kansas, Rupp again…and now today, won with defense and perseverance in a way that might best represent what this season is about.
John Fulkerson – flying freshman, slayer of Rupp, and the best of us on Senior Day – will be one of those guys we remember, just like the ones he listened to growing up. Yves Pons – the player I’ve spent the most number of possessions watching on the defensive end in my nearly 40 years – will be one too.
We’re not done here. First it’s Nashville and an SEC Tournament that should be all kinds of fun. Then the NCAA Tournament. There is basketball left in front of this team; if there’s a lot of it left, Tennessee’s defense will again have something to do with it.
But today, more than just saying thanks for being here, Tennessee won in a way that carries so much pride. This season has been hard. This game was headed in the same direction, with less help than ever coming from three.
