SEC Schedule Proposal with FiveThirtyEight’s Model

Of the many interesting scheduling ideas floating around this off-season (including Joel’s here a few days ago), my favorite is from back in January: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s Make College Football Great Again. Their post uses the Big Ten, in part an effort to help prevent another Penn State or Ohio State playoff debate. We’re simply applying it here to the SEC. In terms of what is the most fair and the most fun, this is the best model I’ve seen.

No divisions, no conference championship game, nine regular season conference games.

First, ditching conference championship games frees up an additional week to be used on playoff expansion or an extra bye week.

If you’re going to go this route, you have to address the possibility of ties at the top of the standings. Models that include a handful of annual rivals and a rotation of other opponents – including ones that do it well like this one from SB Nation – either keep the conference championship game as a potential rematch, or shrug their shoulders at the notion of a tie.

In case you were born before divisions or overtime, ties are awful. No one is happy because literally no one wins.

I’m for anything that makes every single game matter as much as possible, and in this sense I don’t like playing conference championship games in non-divisional formats because of a higher probability of rematches. Divisional formats with annual rivalries greatly reduce the possibility of rematches: in 25 years the SEC has never had an annual rivalry (Tennessee-Alabama, Florida-LSU, Georgia-Auburn) play an encore in Atlanta.

But take out divisions? If you just sent the two best conference records to Atlanta, Tennessee and Florida would have run it back in 1993, 1995, 1996, 1998, and the very next week in 2001. This absolutely would have diminished the value of the regular season meeting.

Schedules need a way to preserve the rivalries that matter most, but also maximize the value of every game. And they need to be able to produce a champion that is rewarded in ways Penn State was not. Head-to-head needs to matter more, not less.

This is why I love FiveThirtyEight’s model:

Imagine a world in which historical rivals always play each other every year and yet, by almighty Rockne, the best teams in a conference always play one another, too. Imagine a world with no divisions.

Not only have I imagined such a world, my friends, but I have seen one. I have seen it in the hallways of a high-school debate tournament.

The solution that debate tournaments devised is something called power-pairing. Power-pairing just means that teams with the same record are paired off against each other, so that a team that starts off the tournament 2-0 will face off against another 2-0 team, for instance. It usually works by drawing the first two rounds of a tournament at random,1 and after that, everything is power-paired.

Three annual rivalries, two predetermined opponents, four flexed/power-paired match-ups

Here are the annual rivalries I went with:

  • Alabama:  Auburn, LSU, Tennessee
  • Arkansas:  LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M
  • Auburn:  Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State
  • Florida: Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee
  • Georgia:  Auburn, Florida, South Carolina
  • Kentucky: Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt
  • LSU:  Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss
  • Ole Miss:  LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
  • Mississippi State:  Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss
  • Missouri:  Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M
  • South Carolina:  Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
  • Tennessee:  Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt
  • Texas A&M:  Arkansas, Ole Miss, Missouri
  • Vanderbilt: Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee

In FiveThirtyEight’s model, teams play their rivals in weeks 2, 4, and 7 of league play. Week 7 highlights the biggest rivalries as best we’re able. There’s a logistical point here for the SEC: this model works more smoothly for the Big Ten because they typically don’t start conference play until week four or five. So there’s a whole piece here about moving most or all non-conference games to early September that would have to be worked out, along with bye weeks.

In weeks 1 and 3 of league play, teams would face a predetermined opponent. FiveThirtyEight’s model uses the previous season’s standings to determine these foes:  Week 1 would feature teams from the top of the conference against teams from the bottom, Week 3 would feature best against best and worst against worst.

Opponents in weeks 5, 6, 8, and 9 of league play would be determined as the season played itself out. Weeks 5 and 6 would be decided after Week 4; Weeks 8 and 9 decided after Week 7, with both pairs of match-ups featuring one home and one away game. In each case, the league office would make the effort to power-pair teams based on their current records, creating the best available match-ups among teams yet to face each other. FiveThirtyEight’s piece had an algorithm help select these match-ups.

How would this look for the SEC? Here’s a sample season we played out (projected losses in red):

Let’s take Tennessee as an example. After four weeks the Vols are 3-1, and are paired with 4-0 Texas A&M and 2-2 LSU in Weeks 5 and 6. After seven weeks the Vols are 5-2, and are paired with 4-3 Ole Miss and 4-3 Auburn in the last two weeks of the season.

At the end of the year the Vols didn’t play Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, or Missouri. None of those teams finished above .500. Look at how many meaningful games everyone is playing:  Alabama, who wins the league at 8-1, played every team finishing 6-3 or better and three of the four teams finishing 5-4. South Carolina, who tied for last at 2-7, did not face Alabama or 7-2 Texas A&M.

If two teams tie at the top, power-pairing virtually assures they played each other during the regular season, thus head-to-head decides it. If three teams tie and their head-to-head results cancel out, power-pairing virtually assures you can find a next best common opponent to break the tie.

This would require some flexibility at all levels, especially with four unknown games to schedule on short notice. But of all the models I’ve seen, this one is the best at producing a worthy champion without divisions or rematches while sustaining key rivalries. It creates a sense of anticipation and opportunity as the season goes along with good teams continuing to face each other; in the above case the title is decided in the final week of the season when Alabama plays Texas A&M. It increases the value of every win: going 9-3 may not be cause for celebration right now, but against a schedule like this it becomes much more of an accomplishment (and hopefully creates healthier expectations along with more meaningful games). It also protects schools at the bottom of the league in any given year, helping struggling teams stay alive for bowl eligibility longer with more winnable games down the stretch. And, most importantly, it pushes opinion out of the equation and maximizes head-to-head results.

Tennessee Vols Recruiting: Random Thoughts

A half dozen random recruiting thoughts as it’s not even July, and the 2018 class is currently ranked #5 in the country with 15 commitments:

Still no Emerson

What’s even more impressive about the current ranking of the class is that it doesn’t yet include Vols lock and borderline 5-star DL Greg Emerson, who will be the crown jewel of this class as his fellow Jackson area-native Trey Smith was in 2017.

Defensive Ends

As noted over the weekend (and in the case of Chatman, presciently), the DE board is suddenly very crowded with blue chippers, another promising development as UT looks to finish this class out.  With Chatman in the fold and Emerson a matter of when and not if, look for the Vols to really zero in on JUCO stud Dorian Gerald and Azeez Ojulari while continuing to slowly chip away with Jordan Davis.  Other nice prospects are out there, and even over the weekend, 4-star DE Malcolm Lamer from FL named the Vols in his Top 5, just adding to the board.  But IMO it’s those three that will be the main focus going forward (again, presuming Emerson is a Vol already).

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Tight Ends

One position I continue to think is really interesting is TE.  While the Vols have a really good prospect already in the fold in local stud Jacob Warren, the thought is that they want to pair him up with another.  The two TEs the staff has focused on have been Tommy Tremble from GA and James Mitchell from VA.  And while UT is arguably in the Top 2 for both, it would be a stretch to say that they lead for either.  With Tremble, the thought continues to be that his interest in academics could lead him away from a big time SEC program like Tennessee or UGA (his father’s alma mater) and instead to a place like Notre Dame (his presumed leader right now), Duke, or even an Ivy. With Mitchell, even though he’s made a couple of visits to Rocky Top many think ultimately he will be tough to pull away from home state Virginia Tech.  And now schools like OSU are sniffing around, potentially complicating matters should he decide he would be willing to leave home.  All the while, other top flight TEs are either falling off the board or simply moving on as they are recruited harder by other schools.  So the question becomes, if you can’t land one of the remaining big 2, do you reach and take another TE in this class, or do you instead use that spot at another position?  It’s not an easy question to answer, as headed into 2018 you’ll only have 5 TEs on the roster, counting Warren, and to-date only one (walk-on Eli Wolf) has actually taken snaps.  Now a counter to that might be that none of the remaining class of 2018 TEs would move the needle in the 2018 season anyway as they would be just as inexperienced.  My take: Don’t reach, and then make sure you’re using the 2017 season to get guys like Eli Wolf and Austin Pope some real reps and likely 2017 redshirts James Brown/Latrell Bumphus the kind of physical development needed to be ready in 2018.  It’s not an ideal situation, but at this point if the Vols can’t land either Tremble or Mitchell I think I would rather see that spot used on another DL or OL.

Offensive Line

Speaking of…do the Vols take a 4th OL if they land Carvin?  Might depend on numbers at other positions, among other variables.  Interestingly, Midstate product and longtime Vols fan Tanner Antonutti is dying to get the green light to commit to his dream school and seemingly was ok waiting.  However, an offer from LSU over the weekend may have changed the calculus for Walt Wells and Co.  Does the offer from Red Stick force UT’s hand here, or is Antonutti still willing to wait?  It’s a fascinating question.  He’s an intriguing prospect – more of a Marcus Tatum/Nathan Niehaus type body in the sense that he’s got a great frame and athleticism but doesn’t have the weight yet.  Once again it’s a zero sum game when it comes to numbers at different positions, so if you take a 4th OL someone else is losing a spot.  It’s sounding more and more like Carvin is going to pull the trigger for the Vols sooner rather than later, so we’ll know more on that 4th spot shortly.

Linebackers

LB recruiting continues to be confounding, and there are just so many layers to it.  On the one hand, at this point the 4-2-5 is basically our Base package, so you just don’t need as many LBs as you used to.  Also, I think the Vols ended up with a really nice LB class in 2017: Ignot is a blue-chipper; Reid and Page look to have been steals after Reid looked really good this spring as an early enrollee and Page put on a bunch of muscle to go with his speed and high school production; and to cap it off, I’m firmly of the opinion that Maleik Gray is a future menace as a hybrid LB/NB chess piece that Shoop moves all over the place in the box, ala  Jabril Peppers at Michigan.  But on the other hand, it does seem strange that we haven’t found ourselves truly battling for bonafide stud LBs for a while now.  Yes, guys like Kirkland and Bituli were well-regarded and have very bright futures, but compare LB recruiting to, say DL or OL recruiting and it’s hard to say we’re signing the same caliber of prospect, at least on paper.  And that appears to be the case in the 2018 class, as the board is both relatively small and also devoid of big timers.  Don’t get me wrong, Cam Jones is likely to take a LB spot in this class, and I think that he has the potential to be a really, really good LB.  He’s got nice size, speed, and athleticism.  I don’t think we take more than one more though, and while I think guys like Matthew Flint and Cam McGrone and Fa’najae Gotay are solid prospects, the guy I would go all in on is Xavier Peters.  Yes, there are academic and potentially character concerns (though that’s just hearsay and I think it has to do with his fiery disposition).  But he looks like a potentially elite LB.  The kind that we don’t have on the roster right now with the possible exception of Daniel Bituli.  And with his home state Buckeyes being full at LB there is an opportunity for someone else to swoop in and snatch a big timer – the kind of kid who normally we’d have no shot at as he’d be an OSU lock.  The team that takes advantage of that should be the Vols.  Peters was here in the spring and loved it, but unfortunately didn’t come to Orange Carpet Day despite some thought that he would make it in.  So they’ll need to get him back to campus to remind him how much better it is than, say, Kentucky, who appears to have a decent shot at him right now.  Bottom line: Peters should be Thigpen’s focus, because he’s the kind of elite LB we don’t have on the team right now and he’s there for the taking.

Richard Jibunor

A final thought on LB recruiting this cycle: Richard Jibunor is one of my favorite players in this class.  He’s an athletic freak who could play LB or DE and loves the Vols.  Unfortunately, he also loves Auburn, and the Tigers are telling him he can play his preferred position of LB while the Vols are recruiting him as a DE.  Now, it’s a testament to how much he likes Tennessee that we are neck and neck with Auburn despite that.  But, especially given the dearth of big time LB prospects not only on the 2018 board but also on campus, I don’t see why UT doesn’t simply recruit Jibunor as a LB, or at least tell him he can play both or start at LB and see what happens.  That would not only eliminate Auburn’s advantage but also give UT another shot at a stud LB who, worst case, gets too big for the position and becomes a terror off the edge at Weakside DE.

Butch Jones, Bane, and the Bye Week

When I was 11, Superman died. It had the intended effect: me and thousands of others got invested in comic books thanks to Doomsday, one mammoth event leading to several others over the next few years.

The following summer, Batman got in on the action with the 18-month arc Knightfall. The turning point in this series came when Bruce Wayne faced a new villain for the first time. Kids today know Bane as a fun voice to impersonate. Eleven-year-old me was introduced to him when he broke Batman’s back in the summer of 1993.

The fight was reproduced in The Dark Knight Rises on the big screen in 2012, but the buildup in the comics was completely different. Knightfall starts when Bane busts all of Batman’s biggest enemies out of Arkham Asylum, then waits for Bruce to exhaust himself catching each of them before he faces him. And unlike Superman, who gave as good as he got against Doomsday, when Batman faces Bane it’s even worse than the movie:  the entire issue is devoted to Bane beating Batman within an inch of his life in his own home. Child Will had nightmares after reading it.

I thought about this last fall as Alabama rolled through Knoxville, the only punches a depleted Vol squad landed coming thanks to Derek Barnett, who might actually be Batman for all I know. It wasn’t just the beat down, it was the buildup:  Tennessee had gone through Florida, Georgia, and Texas A&M in succession before facing the top-ranked Tide. You knew that run was going to be trouble the minute the schedule was announced. But it was the how of it all that proved to be so exhausting.

What happened in the first half of last season was simultaneously so exciting and so draining, I kept thinking I wouldn’t have time to fully enjoy it until after the season was over. The Florida game is the most exhausted I’ve ever been walking out of Neyland, was swiftly followed by the single most exhilarating play in school history, then immediately followed by a five-hour, double overtime, 17-injury marathon at Texas A&M. Then Bama. And that’s just how exhausting it was for fans, let alone what it did to the coaching staff and an ever-thinning roster.

There are no excuses, as Butch Jones would probably admit; the second half of the season ultimately made the first half something you couldn’t fully enjoy anymore. But looking ahead with 10 weeks to go until kickoff, one thing is certain:  thank God we don’t have to do it that way again.

The toughest stretch of the 2017 season is your choice of South Carolina, at Alabama, at Kentucky, or at Missouri, LSU, Vanderbilt. Either one is a tough SEC West draw book-ended by two of four from the traditional bottom half of the SEC East. Team 121 probably won’t be good enough to take anyone for granted and should learn from Team 120’s November mistakes in that regard. But no matter who does or doesn’t get hot in the league this year, there is no way Tennessee will have to face anything like those four weeks from last fall.

The first five weeks put Indiana State, 2-10 UMass, and the bye week evenly spaced between Georgia Tech, Florida, and Georgia. If the East goes as it usually does, the Vols won’t have to face any of their five most difficult foes on consecutive Saturdays.

How ridiculous was last fall? A trip through the media guide shows it was the only time in school history the Vols have faced ranked foes on four consecutive Saturdays. (EDIT: Upon further research, I put the bye week in the wrong place in 2013, which means Tennessee faced ranked teams on four consecutive Saturdays that year as well. So it’s only happened twice in school history, both times to Butch Jones.) Someone may have made this point as it was happening last year, but I know myself and many others were too caught up in everything that transpired in those four weeks to notice. 

The most difficult stretches in modern program history may have featured higher ranked teams than #19 Florida, #25 Georgia, #8 Texas A&M, and #1 Alabama. But none of them included this kind of gauntlet on four consecutive Saturdays:

  • 1991:  Tennessee faced five ranked teams in a row (#21 UCLA, #23 Mississippi State, #13 Auburn, #10 Florida, #14 Alabama) but had a bye week after the first three and none were ranked higher than 10th. The Vols went 3-2 in this stretch, then two weeks later beat #5 Notre Dame in The Miracle at South Bend.
  • 1994:  Four of Tennessee’s first five opponents were ranked (#14 UCLA, #23 Georgia, #1 Florida, #17 Washington State) with a trip to Starkville coming between the Gators and Cougars. An inopportune time for your starting quarterback to get hurt on the first drive of the season, and a huge ask for a baseball player and a young freshman filling in. They turned out alright.
  • 2002:  Already dealing with season-changing injuries, the ’02 Vols played a six overtime game with Arkansas, then faced #6 Georgia, a bye week, #19 Alabama, South Carolina, and #1 Miami. 
  • 2005:  A common theme in another disappointing year, Tennessee faced five Top 10 teams in eight weeks (#6 Florida, #4 LSU, #5 Georgia, #5 Alabama, #8 Notre Dame).
  • 2007:  Only one of these teams was ranked, but in terms of pressure I’d put Tennessee’s march to Atlanta on the list:  the ’07 Vols had to win out to win the East against the Heisman runner-up from Arkansas, Vanderbilt in the biggest fourth quarter comeback in Neyland history, and at Kentucky in four overtimes. They then faced #5 LSU in Atlanta, the eventual BCS Champions.
  • 2011:  On four consecutive Saturdays the Vols faced unranked Georgia (where Tyler Bray broke his thumb), #1 LSU, #2 Alabama, and #14 South Carolina. Two weeks later Arkansas would become the third season-ending Top 5 team Dooley’s Vols faced. The only team on this list that failed to win at least one of these games.
  • 2013: Tennessee played five Top 11 teams plus a bye week on six consecutive Saturdays (#6 Georgia, #11 South Carolina, #1 Alabama, #10 Missouri, #7 Auburn), the last two starting true freshman Josh Dobbs at quarterback. Whenever someone casts Butch Jones’ overall record at Tennessee in a negative light, remember this ridiculous run in his very first year.

Tennessee plays in the best conference in college football and has always scheduled aggressively. But it has never had to face four Saturdays like it did last fall, both on paper and in what those games eventually turned in to. 

Bane eventually goes down to a new Batman, fighting with new weapons and new tactics. Team 121 will have to find new ways to win this fall without Barnett and Dobbs and many other old names to rely on. But the task itself will not be as exhausting on so many Saturdays in a row. If nothing else, 2017 should have a better rhythm. Hopefully it leads to a year we can all enjoy more fully.

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Tennessee Recruiting: Vols Complete Weekend Peach State Trifecta With Jamarcus Chatman Commitment

Last year, “Orange Carpet Day” produced eight commitments on that Saturday. This year, the annual event waited a week before yielding pledges for the Vols.

Rome (Ga.) defensive tackle Jamarcus Chatman made it three commitments for UT from the state of Georgia in two days on Sunday night, officially pulling the trigger with a Twitter pledge after a week-long social media love affair with Tennessee following last weekend’s visit.

https://twitter.com/ChatmanJamarcus/status/879119722637348864

Shortly after he left Knoxville, he decommitted from LSU, where he’d been bound to coach Ed Orgeron. Basically everything on his Twitter account since then has been regarding UT. On Sunday night, he gave Tennessee some big-time news with his decision. The 3-star defensive lineman doesn’t have the offer sheet of a normal 3-star player.

He chose Tennessee over LSU, Clemson, Miami, Florida, Florida State, Michigan, Michigan State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, South Carolina, Southern Cal and others. Maybe if Georgia (where his high school teammate and buddy Adam Anderson is entertaining along with LSU where he’s currently committed) were to offer Chatman, things could get interesting.

But he is definitely sold on the Vols, where he has family ties. His family wants him in orange, and his sister-in-law actually went to UT and is a huge Tennessee fan, and his brother is a Tennessee fan, too. According to 247Sports, he’s the nation’s No. 30 defensive tackle, but a lot of teams love the explosion and size of the 6’3″, 267-pound lineman.

Plus, it never hurts to have a kid say something like this that Chatman said in an interview with GoVols247’s Ryan Callahan:

“When I decommitted from LSU, that’s where I knew I wanted to go,” said Chatman, who’s ranked the No. 397 overall prospect and No. 30 defensive tackle in the 247Sports Composite for the 2018 class.

“After visiting, that place is just amazing. … I was going to wait (to decide). But I was thinking, ‘Why wait when I know where I’m going to go?’”

The Vols would probably love to get in on Anderson, but they don’t appear to be a serious option there right now. As for Chatman, he’s a big-time get for Tennessee, considering his athleticism on the interior and the frame to hold a lot more weight. He also plays for a North Georgia powerhouse that is used to winning big. It’s yet another major win for new defensive line coach Brady Hoke, who is proving to be a great hire. Also, Chatman’s primary recruiter was linebackers coach Tommy Thigpen, who finally landed another big fish in the Peach State.

He fills a major need for the Vols, who didn’t exactly hit a home run in defensive line recruiting in the 2017 class. Though the Vols are excited about the futures of Matthew Butler and Eric Crosby on the interior, they also took some developmental players such as Kivon Bennett, Ryan Thaxton, Marquez Bembry and Deandre Johnson. 

This year’s class looks — at least on paper — like it has a much higher “boom” ratio. Chatman will team with Tennessee in-state defensive tackles D’Andre Litaker and Brant Lawless to form a stellar trio. Elite in-state lineman Greg Emerson and defensive end Jordan Davis, who is committed to Alabama, are still on the board. But the Vols have three strong defensive tackles in the fold, and that’s a major deal at this point of the recruiting cycle.

Also, it’s possible Chatman could be a “swing” player who could play on the interior or exterior, depending on where the Vols need him the most, much like guys such as Jonathan Kongbo, Kyle Phillips and others. It’s nice to have a few players with that kind of versatility, and Chatman has the type of athleticism and explosive that can allow for that, though his highest ceiling is probably as a 280-290-pound interior lineman. Regardless, he can play either the 3- or 5-technique, and that’s big news for a Vols team needing linemen.

This is a big commitment for the Vols.

 

Tennessee Recruiting: Vols Land Grant, Second RB in As Many Days

After they visited Knoxville for “Orange Carpet Day” last weekend, it became clear that Lyn-J Dixon and Anthony Grant could decide they wanted to team up in Tennessee’s offensive backfield for the next few years.

On Sunday, that possibility came one step closer to a reality when Grant, a 3-star runner from Buford High School in the Atlanta suburb verbally committed to the Vols. His pledge came a day after 4-star running back Dixon announced he wanted to spend his college career on Rocky Top. Grant announced the news via Twitter.

https://twitter.com/anthonygrant204/status/879089347928174592

Now, if the duo follows through and signs with UT, the Vols will have their two running backs in this class.

It became clear over the past couple of weeks how Tennessee’s running backs board was formulating following the decommitment of Jashaun Corbin and his pledge to Florida State. Though the Vols were a finalist for Murfreesboro runner Master Teague, the interest between the school and the prospect never really heated up. Once Ohio State offered Teague, he decided Columbus is where he wanted to be.

Dixon was always at or near the top of Tennessee’s list, and he was a no-brainer take for the Vols, so when he wanted to pull the trigger yesterday, it was huge news. Grant’s flirtation grew over the past few weeks, and when Gurley (Ala.) running back Tae Provens committed to LSU this weekend after saying UT led for the longest time, it was obvious that the two parties were going in different directions. Grant wound up being higher on the Vols’ board, and he committed Sunday.

That gives the Vols a strong pair of running backs a year after UT signed three in Nashville stud Ty Chandler, late-rising athlete Timothy Jordan and Louisiana bruiser Trey Coleman.

For the second year in a row, the Vols beat out North Carolina for one of their runners. Grant chose UT over other finalists North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida and N.C. State. He came from Buford, where Tennessee head coach Butch Jones has enjoyed recruiting success recently, landing linebacker Austin Smith and defensive lineman Quay Picou three classes ago.

Grant plays for a powerhouse program and splits carries with a couple of other kids who’ll play college ball. Once Dixon committed to UT on Saturday, Grant sat down and evaluated his options and told VolQuest.com’s Jesse Simonton that Tennessee was still where he wanted to be, calling it “home.” The 5’11”, 195-pound athlete can slash, but he’s also a power back who can add weight and still be a quality three-down runner.

Plus, Dixon’s pledge was a plus.

“I feel like I can do it all. I’m an every down ‘back,” he told Simonton. “I can also catch the ball in the backfield. I can do a lot of things. … It’s going to be great playing (with Dixon). We’ve built a great relationship. We get along really good. I feel like it’s going to be fun and exciting to be in the same backfield as him.”

Tennessee now has 14 commitments in this year’s class, and the Vols continue to surge up the rankings. They’re second in the SEC according to 247Sports, and Jones’ re-assembled coaching staff is proving it can bring in plenty of quality players.

The Vols now have a pair of running backs and a pair of quarterbacks, addressing two huge needs on offense. With all the success the program has experienced recently in recruiting offensive linemen, if the young receivers pan out, this could be an exciting offense for new coordinator Larry Scott in the future.

It looks like UT will have plenty of options behind whoever wins the signal-caller battle. This year, every-down runners John Kelly and Chandler should lead the way with slashers Carlin Fils-aime and Jordan behind them with Coleman filling the role of short-yardage back if he doesn’t redshirt (which he should). Now, the Vols have a couple of talented runners to join them in 2018.

Tennessee Recruiting: Vols Get Top Target in Running Back Lyn-J Dixon

Before Tennessee got a commitment (and subsequent decommitment) from Florida running back Jashaun Corbin, before Master Teague was ever truly pursued, the Vols were hot and heavy after Georgia tailback Lyn-J Dixon.

It’s definitely not a stretch to say he was one of the biggest priorities in UT’s class.

On Saturday, the pursuit paid off with a pledge from the 5’11”, 178-pound Butler, Georgia, runner. He announced his decision with a Twitter video in which he said, in part, “I’m ready to carry the rock on Rocky Top.”

https://twitter.com/im_Next23/status/878708348274847744

He’s a 4-star prospect and the nation’s sixth-rated all-purpose back and the No. 307-ranked overall player in the country according to the 247Sports Composite rankings. The Vols have been after him for months and months, and he chose UT over offers from Alabama, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Louisville, Michigan, Notre Dame and many others.

Dixon told GoVols247’s Ryan Callahan that Clemson has shown a lot of interest in him lately, but even if the Tigers offered, he’d feel comfortable with his decision. Still, head coach Dabo Swinney may pose the biggest threat.

The long-term relationship with Butch Jones and running backs coach Robert Gillespie led Dixon to Tennessee.

“They’ve been with me since I was, like, a freshman,” he told Callahan. “They’ve been with me ever since, and now I’m in 12th grade, so I have a lot of respect for that.”

He’s an elite athlete who can add weight and still be a dynamo with the ball in his hands. It’s exciting to think of him teaming with incoming freshman Ty Chandler for the next few years, and since Corbin elected to commit to Florida State, UT is still looking for another running back.

Perhaps Anthony Grant will be the other runner in this class. That wouldn’t be terribly surprising considering he preps at Buford High School outside of Atlanta where the Vols have experienced plenty of recruiting luck in recent years. Grant is a 5’10”, 190-pound runner who projects to be more of a between-the-tackles guy than Dixon.

They’d complement each other well.

The Vols are restocking their stable at running back for the future. Chandler, Timothy Jordan and Trey Coleman are all incoming freshmen, and they’ll team with junior John Kelly and sophomore Carlin Fils-aime this year. With Kelly only having two years left, Dixon will walk in at an opportune time to get plenty of carries throughout his career in Knoxville.

Tennessee tells Dixon it wants to use him like Alvin Kamara, which was the pitch to Corbin, too. It appears the New Orleans Saints rookie is going to be paying dividends for the Vols on the recruiting trail for years to come.

The commitment puts Tennessee back into the top 10 of the 247Sports rankings, and the Vols are second in the SEC behind LSU currently.

 

Vols Recruiting: Defensive end board suddenly looking robust

While the Vols signed a very promising group of defensive ends in the 2017 class, including early-enrollee Deandre Johnson, Matthew Butler, Ryan Thaxton, and Marcus Bembry, the DE position is arguably UT’s thinnest in terms of proven depth and talent.  Therefore, it is a position of immense focus for the Class of 2018.  Yet as the calendar turned to June and the Vols sat with a Top 10 2018 recruiting class, there were still justifiable concerns when it came to the position, as the Vols had zero commitments, and it seemed like top talent with which UT was in a strong position was nowhere to be found. 

Over the course of the last month, however, the script has been flipped and the Vols have established an extremely strong DE board with several defined tiers.  As of now, UT finds itself as the leader for three blue chip DEs, in the Top 2-3 for another three big timers, building relationships with two FL studs who have expressed reciprocal interest, and in good position for several players who at this point are lower on the board.  See below for the current DE board by tier and my current take on each prospect.

Top Tier – Outright Leader

Jamarcus Chatman – A former LSU commit who decommitted from the Tigers after surprising some by showing up to Orange Carpet Day, Chatman is likely the Vols next and first DE commitment.  He’s All Vol on Twitter right now, as is his entire family.  A funny thing is that it seems to have been unknown until this past weekend that Chatman’s family is full of UT fans, and his sister is even an alumna.  This one truly seems a matter of when and not if, with the only potential complication being the status of his best friend and current LSU DE commitment Jaquon Griffin.  Many think Griffin only received his LSU offer so that the Bayou Bengals could land not only Chatman but also their talented LB teammate Adam Anderson.  I don’t think the Vols are willing to take Griffin, and I think Chatman is going to be ok with that.  Possibly very soon…

Greg Emerson – All Vols fans who follow recruiting know who Emerson is, and he remains UT’s top overall target regardless of position.  He’s second on this list only because despite my 100% confidence that he will be a Vol when he enrolls in December he seems determined (at least for now) to wait on announcing his decision.  The kid is an absolute stud, and while some had him pegged initially as a DT he has expressed a strong desire to be a DE.  With athleticism like this, there is little reason to doubt him, and given that he’s an early enrollee he looks like an instant impact player in 2018

Dorian Gerald – A Florence, SC native who left high school with zero offers, Gerald has become a national recruit as a JUCO DE out in California.  While some assumed that South Carolina was the favorite due to proximity to his hometown, a June visit to Knoxville placed UT firmly in the leadership spot, blowing away his visit to Columbia that had taken place days earlier. As an early enrollee with a frame that appears SEC-ready, Gerald is a guy who looks like he could be in the 2018 DE rotation immediately.  That makes him one of the most important players left on the board. Despite offers from Bama and the like, this one looks like it will come down to UT and the ‘Cocks, and as it stands now the Vols are at the top of his list

Top Tier – Top 2/3

Jordan Davis – A Florida native and current Memphian who committed to Alabama months ago, Davis has proven himself to be one of the best DEs in the entire class in several camp performances this summer.  Davis had talked about making it to Knoxville on more than one occasion this past spring but would no-show.  Many observers were convinced he was going to be impossible to flip, and there was even some talk that it would actually be UF and not UT who would have the best chance to do so despite how hard UT had been trying.  However, after finally making the trip for Orange Carpet Day, Davis was blown away and he appears to be very open to what UT is pitching.  He is good friends with two fellow Memphis-based prospects, Cam Jones and Jerome Carvin, and it sounds like despite neither of them being committed to the Vols (yet) both of them are selling the Vols to Davis.  Saban won’t go down without a fight, and the Vols will need to get Davis and his family back on campus as much as possible.  But he is the kind of prospect you go all-in for, especially when you have the chance to take an in-state player at an impact position away from Alabama

Richard Jibunor – A freak athlete who has worked out as a DE, a LB, a TE, and even a S at camps this spring, Jibunor has the look of a player who Bob Shoop could use in a variety of ways.  He likes the LB spot, but Tennessee sees him as a rush DE who can add weight and keep his elite athleticism and be a terror off the edge.  Right now, the Vols are tied with Auburn at the top for Jibunor, who says he’s still going to visit schools like UF and others before making a decision by the end of the summer.  UT hasn’t had a ton of luck going head to head with Auburn, but here’s hoping that trend doesn’t continue here.  He’s one of my favorite players in this class, and I’d be ecstatic if the Vols landed him

Azeez Olujari – Olujari has been to Knoxville at least twice, with the latest visit coming last weekend for Orange Carpet Day.  By all accounts he had another tremendous trip, and the Vols are firmly in the mix here along with UGA, Bama, and UF.  So, once again, UT is fighting it out with fellow SEC powers.  Unlike fellow Peach State prospect Jibunor, UGA is recruiting Olujari very hard.  It will be a fight to the end for Olujari, but the Vols have positioned themselves firmly in the mix, and I expect will at least get an official visit.

Top Tier – In the Mix but Building Relationships

Gregory Rousseau – A Miami commit and another Vols prospect from South Florida, Rousseau got a Vols offer this week after attending a UT camp last week.  A long, lean, and uber-athletic player, Rousseau actually plays a variety of positions for his high school team.  He’ll need to add weight to be able to play DE in the SEC, but based on his athleticism, he appears to have an incredibly high ceiling.  What I like about Rousseau is that he landed his offer after working out in front of the coaches, so they have a very good feel for his talent level.  His level of interest, especially since he’s committed to Miami, is unknown at this point.  But for him to come to camp to try and earn an offer tells me he’s likely to at least listen.  Definitely one to watch moving forward.

Kayode Oledale – Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Oledale is (say it with me) an athletic freak.  He decommitted from FSU a few weeks ago and immediately listed UT as a school of strong interest.  There was even some talk in Indianapolis at the Rivals 5-Star Challenge that the Vols are one of the top contenders.  He’s very raw but, again, his ceiling is off the charts.  UT will need to get him to campus, and soon, to be an actual contender, so that will be something to watch this summer.  If they can, he’s a guy you take all day.

Next Tier

  • Caleb Johnson
  • Caleb Kelly
  • Nick Fulwider
  • Leonard Taylor
  • Malik Langham
  • Jaquon Griffin

These guys have been on campus, have offers, and like the Vols a lot.  Johnson, Kelly, Fulwider and Taylor were all in attendance for Orange Carpet Day and are all relatively new to the Vols DE board.  Langham has been on campus more than once, and Griffin is the aforementioned teammate of Chatman and as of now is still committed to LSU. 

All of them appear to be solid prospects (some likely better than solid), but as of now likely wouldn’t be able to commit to UT.  However, the Vols will probably continue to recruit them throughout the summer and fall, and they are definitely guys to watch moving forward.

Tennessee’s Alabama problem is really an SEC problem

There’s been a lot of talk recently about Tennessee’s “Alabama Problem” — it’s annual rivalry game with the Tide on the Third Saturday in October. The Knoxville News Sentinel’s John Adams kicked things off on June 5 by publishing an article entitled Tennessee Vols shouldn’t have to play Alabama every year. That framed the issue as “whether Tennessee should play Alabama every year.”

Adams makes some valid points on the way to his conclusion that Tennessee should not play Alabama every year, namely that ten consecutive losses is too high a price to pay for tradition and rivalry.

He’s right that the annual rivalry game has put the Vols at a huge disadvantage in the SEC East recently.

His conclusion, though — that the SEC should do away with the idea of permanent cross-divisional rivals altogether — is all wrong.

Playing the game isn’t the problem

A couple of minor points first, based on a couple of things that Adams actually conceded before concluding that they didn’t matter enough to change his opinion. Rivalries are cyclical, and it’s not unreasonable to expect that Alabama’s rivals will eventually return the favor with a period of dominance over them. You don’t throw out 100 years of tradition because of a bad 10-year stretch. Also, it is “[b]etter to get run over by the Tide than appear to run away from them.” It’s not just that no one wants to back down. It’s also that that game provides a real opportunity to do something special every year.

But here’s the main point: The problem isn’t permanent cross-divisional opponents, it’s that those games are given too much weight when deciding which team should represent the division in the SEC Championship Game.

Losing sight of the question leads to wrong answers

An extreme example illustrates the point that such games may not provide the right answers the right questions. Suppose that a high school team plays the New England Patriots and, as expected, is absolutely destroyed. Does that tell you anything at all about how good that team is relative to other high school teams? Of course it doesn’t.

And cross-divisional games don’t answer questions about the division, either.

The SEC Championship Game ostensibly pits the best team in the East against the best team in the West. That’s the goal. If they happen to also be the league’s two best teams, great. But if not, it doesn’t matter. It’s best of the East against best of the West.

So, one of the SEC’s highest priorities should be a system that accurately identifies the best team in each division. Their current system, though, is faulty because it relies too heavily on the results of dissimilar cross-divisional schedules. Playing and losing to the Patriots says little to nothing about your standing in the SEC East, and neither does playing and losing to Alabama. Especially when the other teams in the East play Mississippi State instead.

And yet that one extra loss to the Tide can make all the difference when it’s time to decide who represents the East in the SEC Championship Game.

Why is it that the SEC doesn’t count non-conference games when determining SEC standings? Is it because games against MAC or FCS opponents (or Clemson or Ohio State) are simply not relevant to the SEC hierarchy? When determining which team is the best in the conference, the SEC says that only SEC games matter.

But even as the SEC completely (and appropriately) discounts non-conference games when calculating SEC standings, it gives equal weight to cross-divisional games when determining division standings.

The solution

The answer to Tennessee’s current Alabama problem isn’t to do away with the rivalry by persuading the SEC to toss out the notion of permanent cross-divisional rivals. Bring ’em on. Let’s keep making progress toward the top of that hill, and when we get there, let’s return the favor for a while.

No, the problem’s not that the SEC has permanent cross-division rivals, it’s that the conference improperly uses the results of those games to draw conclusions about division standings. And while Tennessee seems to be taking the brunt of it lately, this is really an SEC problem more than it is a Tennessee problem, and everyone in the conference should care about it.

It’s not a question of fairness, it’s a question of accuracy. If the SEC truly wants its championship game to feature a contest between the best team from the East and best team from the West, it doesn’t need to eliminate permanent cross-divisional rivals, it just needs to de-emphasize the impact of those games on division standings.

 

 

Gameday Today: Phillip Fulmer, summer football, and summer hoops

More thoughts on The Papa, football keeps grinding, and updates on the Rocky Top League. This and more in today’s Vols link roundup.

Football

The Tennessee offense is gearing up for the fall:

And apparently, Butch Jones is taking the whole “pace” thing to an extreme this offseason:

https://twitter.com/vol_football/status/877503882984775680

What does Butch Jones think about Fulmer’s return to Rocky Top? Good question!

“It’s an exciting time for the entire Tennessee family to have Coach Fulmer and his expertise and the ability to build relationships that he brings,” Jones told SEC Country on Wednesday. “I consider Coach a mentor and a great friend, and I think this is healthy for everyone involved, not just football, but the entire Tennessee community.”

Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad to hear all of that, but really, what else is he going to say?

And what does Wes Rucker think about Fulmer’s return to Rocky Top? Good question!

So pretty much everybody but one person likes this move.

Speaking of Fulmer, The Papa is really happy that the talent pool in the state of Tennessee is improving, and he says having local Tennessee kids matters:

“It means more in the fourth quarter against Alabama, it just does,” Fulmer said. “You have to go back home and live it.”

And in case you missed it, you’ll want to check out the latest Vols hype video and the details of the Big Orange Caravan’s Tri Cities stop.

Hoops

Recruiting

New offers:

VFLs

  • Nobody here is going to be surprised to hear that Josh Dobbs has already displayed a real knack for learning what he needs to know as a quarterback with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but you may be surprised to hear that he’d already learned a bunch of pro knowledge while at Tennessee running Butch Jones’ system.
  • If this keeps up, we’re going to need a whole new blog just for Eric Berry:

https://twitter.com/vol_football/status/877564733544595457

Seriously, follow that link and watch that video.

Other Vols news