The Vols’ NFL guys are gone, but don’t overlook their replacements

Yesterday, I pushed back against the SEC Media Days talking point that the Vols losing “all of that talent” to the NFL meant that they had missed their opportunity. My counterargument was that much of the talent that the Vols lost to the NFL was already gone in 2016 due to injury. Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Cam Sutton, and Alvin Kamara were all missing for key games last season.

It is true, though, that some NFL talent that was available the entire season last year won’t be there this fall. Derek Barnett, Josh Malone, and Josh Dobbs all played every game last year. They weren’t missing in action. They need to be replaced.

But that brings us to another problem with blindly buying into the idea that Tennessee has missed its opportunity because of the talent has departed: It relies on a questionable assumption, namely that the Vols won’t be able to replace the departing players with guys of equal caliber.

This assumption is an easy one to accept. If we haven’t seen six guys go in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft in 15 years, then it makes sense to believe that it will be a long time before we see it again. It just feels wrong to believe that the guys who will take up the reigns for Barnett, Malone, and Dobbs could be as good as they were.

But here’s the thing: It’s could be true.

Derek Barnett and defensive end

Of course, we can’t know for sure at this point, but we can analyze it a bit more to see if the assumptions we are making are reasonable.

Derek Barnett was the 10th-best player in the Vols’ 2014 class, according to the 247Sports Composite. His rating was .9164. A 4-star recruit, he was the 5th-best player in Tennessee, the 13th-best strongside defensive end nationally, and the 208th-best player overall nationally. He over-performed that ranking, setting a new Tennessee record for career sacks.

But Barnett is likely to be replaced by Jonathan Kongbo, who holds a great deal of promise. Kongbo was the third-best guy in the Vols’ class of 2016 with a rating of .9584. He was also a 4-star recruit, but on top of that, he was ranked as the nation’s No. 1 JUCO player in his class. He doesn’t have Barnett’s on-the-field resume, but he hasn’t had much opportunity, either. All Kongbo proved last year was that he was not a defensive tackle. What he does have, though, is a recruiting profile that is even better than Barnett’s. It’s a fact.

Even if Konbgo doesn’t live up to expectations, there’s always Kyle Phillips, another guy with a strong recruiting profile. Phillips was the second-best player in the Vols’ class of 2015 with a rating of .9832. Yet another 4-star guy, Phillips was the best player in his class in the state of Tennessee, the fourth-best strongside defensive end, and the 37th-best player nationally.

Josh Malone and wide receiver

Malone was the highest-rated guy in the Vols’ 2014 class with a rating of .9818. Still only a 4-star recruit, Malone was the best player overall in Tennessee in 2014, the fifth-best wide receiver nationally, and the 36th-best player overall nationally. He took a while to get going, but he had a stellar season last year and was drafted by the Bengals in the fourth round.

It is almost a foregone conclusion that Jajuan Jennings will take over as the feature receiver this fall. You’ll recall that Jennings was recruited as a quarterback and only moved to receiver after he arrived on campus. Still, his recruiting profile sheds some light on his talent. Jennings was the ninth-best player in the Vols’ class of 2015 and had a rating of .9257. He was the seventh-best player in Tennessee, the sixth-best dual-threat quarterback nationally, and the 167th-best player in the nation.

The thing is, with Jennings, his recruiting profile is practically already irrelevant. He’s playing a different position, and all he’s done at Tennessee so far is this:

and this:

And more. If you don’t believe that Jajuan Jennings is every bit as good as NFL Draft Pick Josh Malone, I don’t know what to tell you.

Josh Dobbs and quarterback

Looking back at Dobbs’ recruiting profile, he was much higher-rated than I remember. He was the second-best player in the Vols’ class in 2013 and had a rating of .9276. Also a 4-star, Dobbs was the 14th-best player in the state of Georgia, the 10th-best pro-style QB (heh) nationally, and the 164th-best player nationally. The guy is a record-setting quarterback despite playing through a very difficult period in the school’s history.

How much should we expect of his replacements? Quinten Dormady was the 14th-best player in the Vols’ 2015 class with a rating of .9029. Guarantano was the second-best guy in the Vols’ 2016 class with a rating of .9612. Both are 4-star quarterbacks. Dormady was also the 38th-best player in the talent-rich state of Texas, the 11th-best pro-style quarterback in the class, and the 262nd-best player nationally, while Guarantano was the second-best player in the state of New Jersey, the nation’s No. 1 dual-threat quarterback, and the 81st-best player in the class nationally.

Dormady, who is probably the favorite to start this fall, seems to be outperforming his ranking, and Guarantano hasn’t had much of a chance to prove anything yet, but both are talented. Just going on recruiting profiles, Guarantano’s is better than Dobbs’.

Here’s all of that data in table form:

We can’t know, but there’s reason to believe we won’t miss the NFL guys as much as we fear

Hear me loud and clear: I am not saying we are not going to miss Barnett, Malone, and Dobbs, and I’m not saying that Kongbo, Jennings, Dormady, and Guarantano are going to be every bit as good.

I’m just saying that if we are going to guess, we should guess based on actual information, and I am not convinced that the window of opportunity has closed to the Vols because they lost key players to the NFL. Those guys are not going to be replaced by something resembling a 2008-2012 roster; they’re freeing up opportunities for some really promising and talented guys on the 2017 roster.

The guys who are gone to the NFL were great talents for the Vols, but don’t overlook the potential of the guys likely to replace them.

The Must List: Tennessee Running Backs

With the start of fall camp right around the corner, it’s time to look at some picks to prosper at each position.

Over the next couple of weeks leading up to the beginning of practice, we’ll examine each position and spotlight a player who the Vols desperately need to perform well as well as one who could elevate the team if he lives up to expectations.

Think of these as the old Chicago White Sox WGN announcers’ “picks to click.”

Today, we’ll look at the running backs, which has been a team strength over the past two seasons with Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd running herd. Both of those guys are gone for different reasons, and Tennessee’s running attack under coach Robert Gillespie moves on. Let’s take a look at some key cogs to make that group tick.

MUST

JOHN KELLY, Junior

The Detroit native looked fantastic following Hurd quitting the team a season ago, running like his job depended on it and becoming a between-the-tackles force for UT. He seems to be even better at the point of attack than either Kamara or Hurd ever was, and though he’ll never have the athleticism of AK or the power of Hurd, he may just be the ideal every-down back for this system.

Every Tennessee fan is excited to see what he produces as RB1. The 5’9″, 205-pound third-year player enjoyed a stellar sophomore year, leading all UT running backs with 630 yards on 98 carries (6.4 average) and scoring five times.

Way back in his freshman year before he ever had a carry, Gillespie told the media he thought he had three future NFL runners in that film room. New Orleans picked Kamara in this year’s draft, and who knows what will happen to Hurd after he transferred to Baylor to play receiver, but Kelly looks well on his way to making his coach three-quarters right.

It’s easy to forget about Kelly in the SEC considering the league boasts studs like Derrius Guice, Ralph Webb, Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Bo Scarbrough, Damien Harris, Kamryn Pettway and Benny Snell, but he will have every opportunity to run his way into the upper echelon of the league’s top backs.

When he was being recruited, several Big Ten teams (including Michigan and Michigan State) wanted him for defense, thinking he’d be an excellent defensive back. The Vols were insistent on him playing running back, and he’s worked out very well.

Now, this is his show. There’s no reason to believe he will fail to seize the spotlight. Not only is he the ideal size for an inside back, he’s one of the fastest players on the offense. It’s going to be a very big year for Kelly. If it’s not, it will spell doom for UT because the Vols really need the running backs to take pressure off Quinten Dormady and Jarrett Guarantano.

Kelly’s numbers really could become special when extrapolated across an entire season, especially when you consider the following. Pro Football Focus rated Kelly third in the SEC among returning tailbacks in “Elusive Rating,” a formula of missed tackles and yards after contact.

There’s nothing wrong with that, considering it measures how well a running back does after help from his offensive line. If Kelly has a big year, UT’s offense may not miss a beat because that means the offensive line is living up to its depth and potential and the quarterbacks don’t have games on their shoulders.

MIGHT

TY CHANDLER, Freshman

All the hype and buzz surrounding Hurd when he came into Knoxville out of the Midstate a few years ago was considerable. But this year’s Nashville-area running back may wind up generating the most postseason talk.

There’s no question the Vols got a major coup when the 5’11”, 195-pound Montgomery Bell Academy product whose father went to Ole Miss decided to stay in the Volunteer State rather than go to Oxford or Athens, Georgia, or several other places, for that matter.

Basically everybody wanted the nation’s fifth-rated running back.

He’s walking into a perfect running situation. With Kelly as the only proven back, Chandler could — and probably even should — slide into that No. 2 role. The only player in front of him is rising sophomore Carlin Fils-aime, and though the Florida product should find a nice role in the offense, he doesn’t have the same elite skill set as Chandler.

The Vols brought in three runners in the class, including Tim Jordan and Trey Coleman. But Chandler is the stud. He can do it all, running between tackles, breaking away from defenders and even proving he’s able to catch the ball out of the backfield. He reminds me a lot of Michel coming out of high school, and that would be a big-time add for the Vols.

He could wind up even better than Michel if he continues to develop.

Regardless, the Vols desperately need Chandler to be as good as advertised. No SEC football team gets by with just one quality running back; UT needs two or three at least.

Chandler is also blazing fast, as evidenced by his MBA record 10.83 100-meter dash, according to GoVols247’s Ryan Callahan.

With that kind of speed and upside, it’s hard not to like Chandler’s chances of making a massive impact right away.

  • For a look at UT’s quarterbacks “must” list, click here.

 

Vols recruiting thoughts headed into “Mini Orange Carpet Day”

As the offseason comes to a close, Tennessee wraps up its summer camp series with what is being billed as a mini-Orange Carpet Day tomorrow, July 20th.  Multiple current commitments, including QB commitment Michael Penix and big timers from Georgia and Florida, will be there along with a group of top-of-the-board targets that has become really impressive at the 11th hour (more on that below.)

The Vols currently sit with 17 public commitments and a Top 5 national recruiting ranking, and as we discussed recently, have the luxury of being very picky with its remaining spots.

A few thoughts:

Mini-Orange Carpet Day Suddenly No Longer Looks “Mini”

Just 24 hours ago it appeared that the only two headliners for this weekend in terms of uncommitted prospects were going to be PJ Mustipher and Jaycee Horn.  However, since then Volquest.com has reported that the visitor list now features multiple high-level targets, making the day a real opportunity for the staff.  Below are my thoughts on each of them:

DT PJ Mustipher: I think the staff would like to add another DT to the class of 2018.  That makes a guy like Mustipher incredibly important, and the fact that he made it out of his visit to PSU last weekend without committing and will be on campus tomorrow is very good news.  This will be Mustipher’s third visit to campus, having attended the Bama game last season and then a spring practice in April.  He would be another big time piece to what is already shaping up as one of the best DL classes in UT history.

CB Jaycee Horn: News broke a few weeks ago that Horn, who had recently eliminated the Vols and announced a top two of Alabama and South Carolina, was not only communicating with the UT staff but had scheduled another visit for the 20th.  Since then things seem to have continued to trend Tennessee’s way, and this visit is a big opportunity for Butch and Co. to solidify themselves in this recruitment, if not end it.  He is currently planning on going to Alabama’s Champions Cookout the next day, but there is speculation that he doesn’t currently have a commit-able offer from the Tide – that remains to be seen and is the ultimate wildcard here in my opinion.  The good news for the Vols is that that Bama event is the same day as a similar event South Carolina is hosting.  I don’t think it’s beyond the realm of possibility at all that Horn commits to the Vols and shuts it down (to the extent anyone actually shuts down their recruitment anymore).  He would be the type of elite talent at CB that Tennessee has struggled to land for a long time, and would be a great complement to the South Florida tandem of Brandon Cross/Tanner Ingle that project more at the nickel or even safety positions.

DE Adam Anderson The first of the new adds to the list, Anderson’s recruitment is a very interesting situation. He, along with current Vols commitment Jamarcus Chatman and their fellow Rome, Georgia teammate and DL Jaquon Griffin were all once LSU commitments.  As we know, Chatman decommitted from LSU immediately after his Orange Carpet Day visit and subsequently pledged to the Vols.  Griffin, while still technically committed to the Tigers, has expressed strong interest in the Vols as well, although at this point he is not a take.  Anderson, who has now decommitted from UGA before LSU, is back on the market and is presumed to have UGA and Alabama at the top of his list, though he did list UT in his recently released Top Five.  Many thought this was only for show, but just getting him to campus is a minor win in and of itself.  We shall see how much this visit makes the Vols a player here, but the connection to Chatman and his family is strong for Anderson and you can be sure there will be some serious peer recruiting from Chatman and others (see: Harris, Jatavious, as the No. 1 example).  Without a doubt Anderson becomes the top rush defensive end on the Vols’ board along with fellow Georgian Azeez Ojulari.  Anderson is the type of talent that I am talking about in terms of aiming high and leveraging the kind of class the Vols have, both in quality and quantity, and taking big swings at big time talent.

DE Azeez Olujari – After spending two nights in Athens last week, there is a lot of buzz that UGA is the leader for this prototypical rush DE.  That said, this will be Ojulari’s third trip to Knoxville since the spring and comes on the heels of his Orange Carpet Day visit last month.  While no one seems to think the Vols are in front here, he obviously has a real affinity for the program, the coaches, and the campus.  The more visits the better, and with a potential preseason decision the staff has to really like getting him back again.

DE Kayode Oledale –Oledale decommitted from FSU a few weeks ago and right now Miami is considered to be a the top – he’s been to campus a few ties and is expected at their Paradise Camp this weekend as well.  That said, the Vols have been mentioned as a dark horse here for a while despite him never having visited, and we’ve seen what happens when kids from South Florida see what UT and Knoxville have to offer.  He’s very raw and likely isn’t an immediate contributor, but he’s a “first off the bus” looking kid with the kind of size/athleticism/strength combo that suggests an incredibly high ceiling.

DE Caleb Kelly – An interesting prospect who at 6’3 205 right now projects as an edge type, Kelly visited for Orange Carpet Day and very recently include the Vols in a Top Five along with Stanford, Michigan State, UVA, and Ole Miss.  He’s a very high academic kid, with offers from lower-tier football programs with strong academic reps like Vanderbilt, Dartmouth, and Yale (along with, of course, Stanford), Kelly is likely a guy the staff wants to see perform during the season before taking (just my opinion, of course) but someone who looks like a really nice prospect.

DE/LB Richard Jibunor (tentative) – Jibunor is a guy who could project as an LB or a DE and is, quite frankly, a freak athlete.  The word is that he likes the LB spot and while the Vols have been recruiting him as a rush DE there has been some speculation that the staff is perhaps actually looking at more traditional DEs like the guys above.  My guess is that they also aren’t sure he would be good enough in space to play OLB.  It could be moot, as right now by most accounts the Vols are behind Auburn.  However, he may like the Tennessee more than anyone thinks, and if he does make it back to campus it’s not only a good sign of his continued strong interest but also may be an opportunity for the staff to see him at either position and make a decision.

DB Trey Dean (tentative) – While most consider Dean to be a strong UGA lean and a safety prospect to boot, the Vols appear to be recruiting him as a corner and/or nickel (where he has performed pretty well, especially at his size at some big time camps including the Rivals 5-Star Challenge).  If he does show, it likely means he’s giving the Vols a serious look with a decision coming relatively soon.  He’s the type of talent that you’d make room for as a fourth CB if you can land both him and Horn.

To Add Another TE or Not?

I’ve been pretty consistent in my opinion that if Tennessee can’t land one of its top targets for the second TE spot then they shouldn’t reach lower down the board and instead should use that spot in the class at a different position.  Now that James Mitchell is no longer coming to campus tomorrow and appears to be a strong Virginia Tech lean, combined with further thought that Tommy Tremble is Notre Dame-bound, that thought hasn’t changed.  That said, it is clear that the UT staff would like to add another TE to this class, as evidenced by this week’s offer to summer-breakout prospect Luke Ford from Illinois.  Ford is a former Arkansas commit who now has offers from Alabama, Georgia, and Michigan (his presumed current Top Three) among other heavyweights.  Although it remains to be seen if the Vols can truly get involved with Ford, a TE prospect of this caliber is the type of player the staff should be targeting if they are in fact going to sign two TEs in the class.  If they can’t get in the mix here, my hope is that they will continue to aim high.

Dry Powder

With 17 commitments currently and at least one very strong lean out there in Memphis LB Cam Jones who could pop any day (not to mention other top prospects that are possible preseason decisions like Horn, Mustipher, OL Jerome Carvin, and WR Shocky Jacques-Louis), the remaining spots are limited.  Something I think would be interesting for the coaching staff to consider is the idea of leaving some powder dry in this class to ensure there is room for a graduate transfer for the 2018 season.  Had UT not had scholarship room for Shaq Wiggins, either in terms of overall numbers or initial counters (and I don’t pretend to know the roster machinations behind the scenes), the outlook for the secondary this season would be vastly different.  As grad transfers become more and more frequent in college football, UT will remain an attractive destination for kids looking to play for championships in their final season.  Obviously, I am not privy to how and when the coaching staff finds out about these possibilities, but I think it is something the staff should consider and game plan for as they figure out how to fill out this class.

A Final Thought (for now)

Obviously, Butch is recruiting at a very high level now, both for the class of 2018 as well as into the future.  We know what this class looks like right now, and the groundwork has been laid for success in what should be loaded in-state classes of 2019 and 2020.  Along with that, the current roster is set up for the 2018 and 2019 teams to be loaded not just with high level talent but also tons of experience.  Therefore, a strong season on the field in 2017 (I’d say nine regular season wins would qualify) would likely propel this program to heights it has rarely seen.  If that happens, Butch will have to make some decisions when it comes to more and more elite players wanting to jump on board – just look at the kind of talent coming to town, yet again, tomorrow.  Will be interesting to watch for sure.

Some of “that NFL talent” for the Vols was already gone in 2016

I was watching the Tennessee Takeover replay of the 2016 Tennessee-Georgia game last night when my middle daughter came downstairs to put her cello away and asked me why I was watching a game I’d already seen. I was especially tired and so I just smiled and said, “We tend to forget stuff.”

As time goes by, we consolidate our memories into efficient shortcuts that are easier to remember, and as a result, the memory of the actual particulars fades. The abbreviated version of the 2016 Vols-Bulldogs game is that the Vols won that game on a miraculous Hail Mary when Josh Dobbs flung the ball to the end zone with four seconds left and Jajuan Jennings leaped over everybody to go get the ball and the victory.

If we sit down and give it more time, we might reminisce about some other details, such as how Georgia had nearly won the game just before that with their own miracle. We might even remember the sack-fumble-touchdown just before that that gave the Vols the lead.

What I’d forgotten, though, until I watched it again last night, is that Tennessee would have had seven more points had Jalen Hurd not decided it would be cool to score a touchdown while walking across the goal line and that Tennessee played that entire game with backup linebackers against a hammer of an offense. I’d forgotten that at least two key guys didn’t even got on the field against Georgia due to injury.

“The window of opportunity has closed”

One of the main talking points at SEC Media Days last week by regional and national pundits was that the Vols had missed their opportunity, that if they couldn’t do it with “all of that talent” last year, there’s no way they can do it this year with “all of that talent” gone.

It’s an easy argument to make, and it’s just as easy to swallow. Tennessee had six players taken in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft this spring – defensive end Derek Barnett, running back Alvin Kamara, defensive back Cam Sutton, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin, wide receiver Josh Malone, and quarterback Josh Dobbs. That’s the best draft class for the Vols in 15 years.

So, if X + those guys = “disappointment,” then X – those guys = “even more disappointment.” If the Vols couldn’t get it done with them, they surely can’t do it without them. Sounds reasonable.

But there are a couple of problems with that argument, one of them being that it assumes that X is constant when it is not, which is a topic for a later post. Another problem with it is that last year wasn’t always “X + those guys.” “Those guys” weren’t all available at all the right times last season.

Who’s gone now and who was already gone last year

Only half of the guys who were drafted this spring played the entire season. Derek Barnett, Josh Dobbs, and Josh Malone all survived the 2016 gauntlet injury-free. They were important to whatever degree of success you assign to the 2016 season, and they’ll no doubt be missed.

But the other three – Reeves-Maybin, Sutton, and Kamara – all missed significant time or key games. Maybin suffered his injury against Ohio in the third game of the season. He then tried to play against Florida but just wasn’t himself at all and then missed the rest of the season. He was effectively not a part of the wins against Florida and Georgia or the losses to Texas A&M, Alabama, South Carolina, or Vanderbilt.

Cam Sutton also suffered his injury against Ohio early in the season and missed almost all of the key games of the season. He was unavailable for Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, and South Carolina. He did not return until the Kentucky game.

Even Alvin Kamara was absent due to injury for a couple of key games. He was injured against Alabama and then missed the South Carolina game (as well as the Tennessee Tech game) after that.

All of those NFL guys are gone, so it is true that they’ll be unavailable against Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU this year. But Reeves-Maybin and Sutton – two of the three most important players on defense last season – were not available for Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama last season, either. And Kamara was missing for Alabama and South Carolina, and it’s not much of a stretch to say that his absence (and Jalen Hurd’s reported refusal to enter the game) was the difference against the Gamecocks as it resulted in an unprepared backup running back causing a key fumble.

Yes, Barnett, Dobbs, and Malone leaving presents Tennessee with a challenge of replacing NFL-caliber talent. But it’s not telling the whole story to say simply that “all of that talent is gone now.” The rest of the story is that, at the times it mattered most, much of that talent was already gone last year.

Tennessee vs Georgia Tech: Big Plays Will Be Even Bigger

Yesterday Bill Connelly released his Georgia Tech season preview, a must-read if you’re looking for a deep dive into the Yellow Jackets (…which sounds terrible in real life). What stands out the most to me from Bill’s work:  big plays were a much bigger part of Georgia Tech’s offense than I realized.

Last year Georgia Tech finished 123rd nationally in total offensive snaps with 771 in 13 games (59.3 per). They were the only team to play 13 games but finish with less than 800 offensive plays. It’s what you’d expect from a triple option team. As such they finished 104th nationally in 10+ yard plays last season.

But when you start going up from there in big play yardage, the Yellow Jackets surge. Georgia Tech finished tied for 11th nationally in 40+ yard plays with 25, and tied for eighth in 50+ yard plays with 16 despite running so few plays overall.

Georgia Tech hits big plays at a high percentage and plays at a pace with fewer opportunities to strike back. The play action pass can be effective, but down the stretch last year they also gashed teams with big runs. In their three game winning streak at the end of the regular season, Georgia Tech had touchdown runs of 53 and 56 yards at #14 Virginia Tech, three touchdowns of 50+ yards against Virginia, and opened the Georgia game with a 42-yard touchdown run.

How was Tennessee at stopping big plays last year? As I’m sure you recall, not great:  the Vols finished no better than 100th nationally in any denomination of big plays from 10-50+ yards allowed.

Bill’s preview also points out the tendencies of the Georgia Tech defense:

The Tech defense was the same as it’s been for a while: a passive, bend-don’t-break unit that prevents big plays and does just enough in terms of red zone defense and third-down defense to get off the field before allowing a touchdown.

Tech will give you a five- or 10-yard gain in the name of preventing a 20-yard gain. The Jackets gave up more frequently successful plays than any of their ACC brethren, but the successful plays were smaller than anyone else’s, too.

The raw numbers hold up here too:  Georgia Tech gave up just 17 30+ yard plays last season, fourth nationally.

Recent history suggests to beat this team you need great consistency on offense and to not get body-blowed into giving up a big play defensively. Tennessee got neither against Appalachian State last year in a slow game and it almost cost them.

The need for consistency is one reason lots of folks think it’ll be Quinten Dormady on September 4. The Vols will have fewer opportunities for big plays against this defense and fewer opportunities in general due to Georgia Tech’s pace of play. If there is truth to the perception that the older Dormady is a safer option, he may make the most sense in game one.

But the bigger question in this one will be Tennessee’s defense. Coming off such a disappointing season in 2016 and now facing such a unique offense, can they keep the Yellow Jackets from breaking a big one? It’s a false assumption that facing Georgia Tech is just about dealing with clouds of dust; it’s getting lost in the dust for a big play where they can really hurt you. To win this game Tennessee will have to stop big plays defensively and not rely on them offensively.

 

The Must List: Tennessee Quarterbacks

With the start of fall camp right around the corner, it’s time to look at some picks to prosper at each position.

Over the next couple of weeks leading up to the beginning of practice, we’ll examine each position and spotlight a player who the Vols desperately need to perform well as well as one who could elevate the team if he lives up to expectations.

Think of these as the old Chicago White Sox WGN announcers’ “picks to click.”

Today, we’ll start with the most vital spot on the whole team: the signal-callers. That’s where new QBs coach Mike Canales will be looked upon to milk some magic from the unproven players ready to step into the Sasquatch-sized footprints of Joshua Dobbs.

This one’s easy…

MUST

QUINTEN DORMADY, Junior

It’s anybody’s guess right now who will trot out with the 1s when Tennessee opens the season at Atlanta’s Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Labor Day night. But if this spring is any indicator, it’ll be Dormady.

That’s the safe bet, anyway.

Despite all the hubbub surrounding one-time marquee recruit Jarrett Guarantano, Dormady stole the spotlight. Considering pretty much every coach in the country would like to go with experience if it’s paired with enough talent, if the race is really close in late August, coach Butch Jones will probably give Dormady the chance to earn the job.

The 6’4″, 222-pound junior from Boerne, Texas, has only limited experience backing up Dobbs the past two years, but when it was his turn this spring, he didn’t disappoint. Though Dormady needs to get more consistent throwing the ball, he possesses the arm strength and accuracy to “throw guys open,” as the old football cliche goes. With all the inexperience in the receiving corps beyond Jauan Jennings, that may prove to be a valuable asset.

For Tennessee fans used to watching a versatile, dual-threat quarterback with Dobbs under center, Dormady is going to be a break from the norm. That may not be such a bad thing. With new offensive coordinator Larry Scott’s history being grounded in more pro-style elements, Dormady wouldn’t necessarily be a square peg in a round hole. Tennessee’s offense actually could evolve with him under (behind?) center.

Though Dormady’s sneaky athleticism can keep teams honest (think Baker Mayfield- or Andrew Luck-type skill set tucking and going) he isn’t going to lead the Vols in rushing the way Dobbs did several times. That’s OK. With John Kelly, Ty Chandler and Co. in the backfield, that’s for other folks.

It’s not a stretch to believe Tennessee’s passing offense will be better with Dormady dropping back than it was with Dobbs. The draft pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers was a gamer for the Vols, but he was never the zippiest passer with the most accuracy. UT did Dobbs a disservice by never employing a dedicated quarterbacks coach, and that became obvious when Dobbs began to unlock some of his hidden potential with some mechanical tweaks during his NFL workout tour.

With Canales in tow, that’s no longer the case. Dormady has somebody who can dissect his every move and work with him to unlock his full passing potential. That potential is massive, as he has an NFL arm. If he can read through progressions and be on-point with his accuracy, the Vols’ passing game could be much improved.

If not, it’ll be Guarantano’s job before too long.

 

MIGHT

JARRETT GUARANTANO, Redshirt Freshman

Guarantano’s potential is tantalizing, and even if he doesn’t wind up being “The Man” this year, UT looks to be in strong hands when he takes over.

The redshirt freshman New Jersey native may be too talented to keep off the field.

At the very least, it’s possible Jones finds ways to navigate a two-quarterback system at times in 2017 thanks to having two capable quarterbacks with a different arsenal of weaponry.

Jones didn’t differentiate that much between the tool sets of Dormady and Guarantano, saying they had similar attributes. He admitted Tennessee may play two quarterbacks at SEC Media Days last week, according to GoVols247’s Wes Rucker:

“I think playing time is earned, so if both players earn their right to play, we’ll play both quarterbacks,” Jones said. “I’ve been in systems where we’ve been able to do that, and really Quinten and Jarrett’s skill sets are very similar to each other. I think we have an offense that really can play to the skill sets of the quarterback and all of the players around.

“Again, if both players earn the right to play, they’ll both play. Again, it’s how it’s gonna play itself out, because these two individuals are very, very capable and very good football players.

“It’s a good problem to have.”

Well, if it works.

Playing two quarterbacks has produced results across the spectrum depending on what teams run it.

The old adage goes, “if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none.” While that is certainly the case sometimes, it isn’t always. If the Vols decide to do that, it needs to be because Guarantano (or Dormady, whoever loses the battle) plays his way onto the field, and not because the starter plays his way off it.

Whatever happens, it’s a safe bet Guarantano earns some reps in 2017. That could be good news or bad news for the Vols.

It’s bad if Dormady wins the job and is ineffective, leading to Jones feeling like he must make a switch in order to win games. Guarantano offers an option that is much more similar to Dobbs’ ability to be a dual-threat weapon. The 6’4″, 200-pound Bergen (N.J.) Catholic signal-caller was the nation’s No. 1-ranked dual-threat quarterback according to 247Sports, and many of the top teams in the country wanted him.

He chose the Vols over Ohio State and his father’s alma mater of Rutgers, and the family has a strong relationship with the Vols’ head coach from his days as an assistant with the Scarlet Knights during James Guarantano’s days.

Just because Dormady holds the clubhouse lead for the starting gig doesn’t mean it’s anywhere near over. Guarantano has the opportunity to seize the gig this fall and be the first UT quarterback on the field against the Yellow Jackets. He has really good speed, even if he isn’t as deceptive in the open field and as slippery as Dobbs. He also has a cannon for an arm, possibly even better than Dormady’s, though it isn’t as polished yet.

If Guarantano puts all those skills together, it’ll be tough to keep him off the field.

Both quarterbacks give the Vols some exciting options. They just need one (or both) of them to prove they deserve to be an elite-level SEC quarterback.

Gameday Today: Football is in the air

First things first. Autumn is coming.

And so is the Chick-fil-A Kickoff between the Vols and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:

That means that Butch Jones is doing the Car Wash thing at ESPN today and that the SEC Network will be showing 24 consecutive hours of Vols programming for Tennessee Takeover Day tomorrow.

Speaking of that Georgia Tech game, Brian Rice lays out some very good reasons to believe that the whole “they’re beating us in ticket sales” is myth. Also, while a lot of folks are (understandably) concerned about the Vols having to play that wicked triple option for the season-opener, John Adams is wearing his happy hat today and reminding Vols fans that Butch Jones is 7-0 in openers and bowl games.

Preseason All-SEC offensive lineman Jashon Robertson is loving the depth along the o-line heading into this season. It’s been a long, hard road, but there are nine or 10 players competing for those five spots, and Robertson says even he doesn’t feel safe, which is very good news for the entire unit.

Similarly, defensive tackle Kendal Vickers says the depth at his position is much better than it was a year ago, that he’s liking the new defensive ends as well, and that the entire defensive line should be better able to withstand any return of Murphy and his Law this fall (whew).

The Vols were picked a distant third in the SEC East after SEC Media Days last week. One Missouri writer picked Tennessee sixth, behind the Tigers. Fighting words!

Four Vols earned preseason All-SEC honors, and SEC Country has five more who with good seasons could make the postseason first-team list.

Preseason All-SEC wide receiver Jajuan Jennings has had a good and quiet summer and is ready to be the feature guy at his position.

While Butch Jones and his guys are hoping to improve things on the field this fall, John Currie, who says things are trending up for the Vols, is working hard to improve the fan experience at the stadium.

 

 

Tennessee picked third in the SEC East, four Vols land on preseason All-SEC team

When SEC Media Days concluded last week, the league released the results of its preseason predictions and All-SEC teams. As expected, Tennessee landed at third in the SEC East, after Georgia (1,572 points) and Florida (1,526 points). What was a little surprising was that the Vols showed up a distant third with only 998 points. Georgia received 138 first-place votes, Florida 96, and Tennessee a mere three.

The Vols did not show up at all in the pick list for SEC Champion. Alabama is the overwhelming favorite there with 217 points. Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Florida, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas all received at least one point.

2017 Preseason Media Days All-SEC Team

Tennessee did land four players on the preseason All-SEC team. Offensive lineman Jashon Robertson and kick returner Evan Berry made second team, and wide receiver Jajuan Jennings and punter Trevor Daniel made third team.

We haven’t posted this online yet, but in our preseason magazine, we put Berry on first team, Robertson, Daniel, and linebacker Darrin Kirkland Jr. on second team, and Jennings and offensive lineman Coleman Thomas on third team.

 

Gameday Today: Frightened by controversy, and wishing good things for monsters

With two weeks and counting to football, we’re beginning to feel good about the team’s talent, still worrying over quarterback controversy, and hoping monsters develop mental stamina. All this and more in today’s Vols link roundup.

Football

“You go through the pregame routines. You go through the preparation in your mind the day before the game,” Robertson said. “You go through the ‘Vol Walk’ and all of those things, which are all great things. But at the same time, it takes a certain amount of your mental energy in itself. You go through that and then you play a half of the game.

“For myself, I was sitting around and looking, thinking like, ‘Is this the end of the game?’ I look up at the scoreboard and it’s halftime. It’s just a whole other level, a whole other commitment to the game in itself. Just doing that week in and week out was something I had to get accustomed to.”

  • Speaking of Robertson, the man has absolutely no clue as to which of Tennessee’s current defensive linemen is the best of the bunch. Defensive tackle Kendal Vickers wants a word (same link).
  • What’s keeping Shy Tuttle from letting two serious injuries in two years derail his career? According to GoVols247, it’s his attitude:

One of the most popular and well-liked players on the team, Tuttle is a happy-go-lucky guy. In the only interview he’s done as a Tennessee player as an early enrollee in 2015, he didn’t say much, giving credence to his name. Behind the scenes, though, his carefree attitude and positive spirit have carried him through the toughest of the times the past two years.

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SEC Media Days video recaps

The 2017 SEC Media Days hay is in the barn, and these are the best bales of the season:

Hmm. That disturbing image of Paul Finebaum in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff helmet is eerily reminiscent of something. Oh, right.

Other Vols news

SEC Diver of the Year Liam Stone and U.S. national open water champion David Heron are competing in the 2017 FINA World Championships in Budapest, Hungary.

Jashon Robertson makes the Outland Trophy Watch List

The Football Writers Association of America (“FWAA”) named Tennessee senior offensive lineman Jashon Robertson to its 2017 Outland Trophy watch list today.

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/885507656340975617

The Outland Trophy is given to the nation’s best interior lineman (offense or defense) each year, the winner being chosen from three finalists from the FWAA All-America Team. Robertson, who has started 34 games for Tennessee and was a key contributor to 2016’s record-breaking offense, is one of 81 players overall and one of 11 from the SEC on the preseason watch list. The watch list is made up of 24 offensive tackles, 21 defensive tackles, 20 centers, and 16 offensive guards.

The watch list will be whittled down to six or seven semifinalists on November 15, and six days later down to the three finalists. The winner will be announced live on ESPN on December 7.