With the start of fall camp right around the corner, it’s time to look at some picks to prosper at each position.

Over the next couple of weeks leading up to the beginning of practice, we’ll examine each position and spotlight a player who the Vols desperately need to perform well as well as one who could elevate the team if he lives up to expectations.

Think of these as the old Chicago White Sox WGN announcers’ “picks to click.”

There’s no greater cause for the wringing of Tennessee fans’ hands in 2017 than the defensive line. After all, a group that included one of the greatest players in the history of UT football in all-time sacks leader Derek Barnett was still wholly terrible thanks to being decimated by injuries. And the group fails to return Barnett, Corey Vereen or LaTroy Lewis. So, it may be even worse than it was a season ago, right? If so, the Vols are in desperate trouble, which means the group collectively need to perform better and defensive coordinator Bob Shoop needs to coach better in ’17. Hopefully for the Vols, the addition of veteran line coach Brady Hoke will help.

Let’s take a look at some guys who have to show up.

MUST

JONATHAN KONGBO, Redshirt Junior

Beyond John Kelly and one of the two quarterbacks, there may not be a more important player on Tennessee’s entire football team.

No pressure, kid.

Last year, the 6’6″, 264-pound defensive lineman was expected to be an instant-impact star after choosing the Vols over Alabama, Ole Miss, Ohio State, Oregon, USC, Florida State and everybody else as the No. 1-ranked JUCO player in the country. It didn’t come so easily so quickly, though.

With injuries in the defensive interior, the Vols moved Kongbo inside. He also played outside, too. He struggled to carve his role early, and folks were beginning to wonder if he was a bust. Then, everything came together late in the year, and he began to show just how good he could be.

He intercepted a Drew Lock pass against Missouri and returned it 59 yards for a touchdown. Then, in the Music City Bowl, he notched a career-high with four tackles and a sack, and Shoop began to get excited about his future.

This offseason, Kongbo has been fueled by the early disappointment of riding the pine upon his arrival in Knoxville. Shoop told the media (including GoVols247’s Grant Ramey) last week that Kongbo has been “on a mission” since the end of last year. He’s chiseled his frame in anticipation of being a full-time defensive end, and he’s one of the main reasons Shoop said he was excited about this group.

Now, Shoop doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt after all the preseason chirping a year ago. He has become known for talking up his players since arriving at UT, and it’s show-me season for the Vols. That goes for Kongbo, too.

Everybody knows just what kind of talent he can be, but the Vols don’t just need to hear it; they need to see it. With Barnett and Vereen gone, UT must find pass-rushing production from somewhere, and Kongbo is the perfect place from which it should come. If he can churn out 8-10 sacks, the Vols will be in a good spot.

Kongbo and untapped talent Darrell Taylor need to blossom into the type of pass rushers that can help ease the pain of Barnett’s loss. If they can’t, it’s going to be another long defensive season on Rocky Top.

MIGHT

KYLE PHILLIPS, Junior

It would have been very easy to put Taylor in this spot, but the Vols really do expect to get quality reps from both him and Kongbo.

The biggest wild card on the edge is Phillips.

As a standout at Hillsboro High School, Phillips was coveted by virtually everybody in the country, choosing Tennessee on national television at the U.S. Army All-American Game over LSU and Alabama. That was a game he dominated off the edge, by the way.

Then, he came to Knoxville, and everything stopped.

As a freshman, he moved inside to play some tackle out of necessity, a move he didn’t care for. After some message board whispers about a potential transfer after that season, Phillips returned and showed some glimpses of his ability before getting hurt yet again a season ago. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy since getting to college, and his back has been one of the main culprits.

Now, Phillips is (finally) fully healthy after missing spring practice once again. It’s going to be a fresh start in front of Shoop with two years to play. Though the 6’4″, 263-pound jumbo defensive end could move in and play some tackle, for the first time in his career, the Vols don’t really need for him to. They need him to push to start at end or at least be a quality No. 3 option.

There’s simply nobody else that have any proven snaps. Beyond that trio, the Vols are going to be forced to play youngsters.

In 17 career games, Phillips has 23 tackles and 3.5 tackles for a loss without registering a sack. That freakish talent sprinting around the corner and getting after high school quarterbacks in all-star games is a distant memory, but that wasn’t another lifetime ago. That was a healthy, in-shape Phillips before all the clutter and injuries got to him.

The Vols need for Phillips to put the rough start in the past and have a Robert Ayers-like resurgence. That may sound like a stretch, but it’s exactly the kind of leap UT needs in order to have a championship-caliber defense. It’s time for Phillips to live up to the blue-chip billing he was supposed to be.

• For a look at UT’s quarterbacks “must” list, click here.
• For a look at UT’s running backs “must” list, click here.
• For a look at UT’s wide receivers/tight ends “must” list, click here.
• For a look at UT’s offensive line “must” list, click here.

Tennessee is replacing its starting quarterback, tailback, and number one wide receiver. An ideal combination this is not, especially when all of them went in the NFL Draft. We won’t know what we’re getting in the trade from Josh Dobbs to Quinten Dormady and/or Jarrett Guarantano until we see it. But the best way to help a new quarterback is to get productive play from your starting tailback and number one wide receiver.

We know the names will be John Kelly and Jauan Jennings. The latter had the two most satisfying plays of the 2016 season. The former actually out-gained both Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara last season on fewer carries than both of them (what would the odds have been on that stat this time last year?). Granted, Kelly had no meaningful carries against Virginia Tech, Florida, Georgia, or Alabama. But he still averaged 6.43 yards per carry on the year, good for 43rd nationally.

Kelly’s productivity and a deep offensive line make the running game a lesser concern. I think the biggest question with Kelly actually ties directly into the questions about the passing game.

Tennessee has thrown to their running backs more than any team in the SEC in each of the last two years. In 2015 it was 21% of the time, and the Vols almost hit that number again last year (individual target rates from Football Study Hall):

Team	RB Target Rate
Tennessee	20.6%
LSU	16.3%
Florida	14.9%
South Carolina	13.1%
Auburn	12.8%
Vanderbilt	11.9%
Georgia	10.3%
Alabama	10.2%
Arkansas	9.1%
Texas A&M	9.0%
Ole Miss	8.4%
Mississippi State	8.1%
Kentucky	7.1%
Missouri	4.0%

When the percentage was so high in 2015, we wondered if it represented the lack of a true number one receiver and/or downfield threat, or perhaps Mike DeBord’s conservative fingerprints on Josh Dobbs. But last year all those options faded:  Josh Malone was a clear number one, the Vols hit 50 20+ yard passes, and Dobbs became the highest drafted Vol quarterback that wasn’t Manning or Shuler.

But still, Tennessee went to their backs 20.6% of the time, far more than any other SEC team. So now the question shifts:  were these numbers a byproduct of having Alvin Kamara on the roster, or will this still be a focal part of Butch Jones’ offense with a new quarterback and a new coordinator?

Kamara was the target on 12.6% of Dobbs’ passes in 2015 and 14.3% last year. Both numbers led the SEC among running backs. Can John Kelly fill at least one of those shoes? He didn’t get much opportunity to do so last year:  he caught only six passes and no more than one in any game.

If the running back isn’t going to be a focal point of the passing game, where will those targets go?

Here’s how Tennessee’s passes were distributed last season:

Player	Target Rate
Malone	20.7%
Jennings	17.4%
Kamara	14.3%
Croom	8.8%
Wolf	8.8%
J. Smith	8.3%
Byrd	6.9%
Hurd	4.1%
P. Williams	3.3%
B. Johnson	2.5%
J. Kelly	2.2%

Jennings made a big leap last year after being targeted just 6.2% of the time in 2015. As he becomes the new number one, Tennessee will need a number two to emerge with or without a strong contribution out of the backfield. And if it’s without, they’ll need a number three.

We’ve seen Tennessee’s passing game adapt under Jones in the past when it comes to top of the statistical leaderboard: in 2014 Pig Howard was the number one option out of the slot (54 catches for 618 yards), but Jalen Hurd was still third on the team in receptions with 35. Same for Rajion Neal in 2013, third on the team with 27 catches. Whether Worley or Dobbs, Bajakian or DeBord, throwing to the backs has been high on Butch’s priority list.

I actually think John Kelly will do quite well in this regard when given the chance. The bigger question may be for Ty Chandler or Carlin Fils-aime; history suggests whoever gets the number two reps is still going to get plenty of opportunities coming out of the backfield as well.

Maybe part of playing a new quarterback will include going downfield even more and not having to rely so much on the running backs in the passing game. It’ll be telling to watch early in the season to see how often the Vols look their way. Either way and especially if Tennessee goes downfield more, they’ll need a number two wide receiver to step up to fill in the gap.

 

 

With the start of fall camp right around the corner, it’s time to look at some picks to prosper at each position.

Over the next couple of weeks leading up to the beginning of practice, we’ll examine each position and spotlight a player who the Vols desperately need to perform well as well as one who could elevate the team if he lives up to expectations.

Think of these as the old Chicago White Sox WGN announcers’ “picks to click.”

Today, we’ll continue our in-depth look at important players on UT’s roster with a concentration on the offensive line. With Don Mahoney gone, there’s a chance the front line may actually be a strength for a change. There’s depth, experience and talent all around. If Walt Wells is half as good a coach as he is recruiter, the Vols have the opportunity to be very good along the front. If that’s the case, the offensive transition in the post-Dobbs era may not be so rocky on Rocky Top.

MUST

DREW RICHMOND, Redshirt Sophomore Offensive Tackle

When it comes to versatility, Tennessee’s offensive line may be as strong as anybody’s in the conference. Hopefully for the Vols, that equates to quality of play rather than only having Swiss army knife players who are capable of playing multiple positions.

None of that matters if you don’t have players who can play multiple positions well, does it?

UT is full of guys who can contribute to many spots along the front. Senior Jashon Robertson has the potential to be an All-SEC guard, and he could even play center to get the five best linemen on the field. Senior Coleman Thomas needs a big rebound year after a junior season that may keep him from a starting gig in 2017. He could play center or tackle, if the situation presented itself. Stud freshman Trey Smith expects to fit in somewhere as a starter right away. Fifth-year senior Brett Kendrick can play a lot of places, but the right tackle spot looks like his.

But the most important player on UT’s line this year isn’t budging from the exterior. That would be Drew Richmond, who the Vols desperately need to become the left tackle of the future (and present) right now.

The 6’5″, 309-pound Memphis native has experienced a topsy-turvy, brief career in Knoxville so far.

As a highly recruited 4-star freshman who flipped from Ole Miss on National Signing Day, Richmond was supposed to save the offensive line right away in 2015. Instead, he was slow to develop, redshirted through an admittedly difficult first year in Knoxville and stuck tight. Then, last year, he again struggled at the beginning of the year before the light came on.

Midway through the year, Richmond started to shine.

He started six games, including solidifying the unit when he moved over to left tackle late in the season. When he moved there the Vols got much, much stronger. Cases in point from his UTSports.com bio:

• Started at LT vs. Nebraska in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, paving the way for 521 yards of offense (230 rushing) without giving up any sacks
• Started at LT at Vanderbilt as Tennessee rolled to 516 yards of total offense
• Started at LT in 63-37 win over Missouri, paving the way for 609 yards of offense and as season-high 386 rushing yards
• Started at LT in 49-36 win vs. Kentucky, helping pave the way for 599 yards of offense and 376 rushing yards (UT’s most in an SEC game since 406 vs. Vanderbilt on Nov. 26, 1994). Vols’ 10.2 yards per play was their most since setting the school record at 10.9 against Kentucky in 2000 and their 9.2 yards per rush was the best mark since 9.5 yards per rush against Auburn on Dec. 4, 2004.

He figures to anchor that side of the line again in ’17. The best news for Richmond and the Vols is that Richmond was really Wells’ pet project, and the man who is now UT’s full-time offensive line coach turned around the talented West Tennessee star’s career.

There are a lot of other guys who want that spot, too, though, according to GoVols247’s Wes Rucker who wrote about Richmond recently:

One of the nation’s most highly prized offensive line prospects in the 2015 cycle, Richmond started turning a corner last season and made the first-team left tackle spot his spot late last in the year. The question now is whether he’ll hold off a bunch of other good options and keep that spot.

Now, if Richmond can emerge as a road-grading left tackle who can protect the blind side of Quinten Dormady or Jarrett Guarantano while continuing to excel in run blocking, the Vols’ offensive line could be very stout. There’s no question that a season ago, the Richmond-Kendrick combination led to UT’s best offensive numbers, and if they take a step forward, the Vols could be very tough to handle up front in 2017.

If Richmond is up-and-down again, there are players such as Trey Smith and Marcus Tatum who are ready to take over. But they’d probably take their lumps on the left side, too. That’s why the Vols need Richmond to shine and hammer down that all-important position.

MIGHT

TREY SMITH, Freshman Offensive Lineman

As noted before, the best-case scenario for the Vols this year would be if the Kendrick-Richmond tackle combination excelled. For one reason, that’s an experienced duo with a lot of SEC work under their belts. Another reason is it could give perhaps the most talented freshman offensive lineman in UT history a chance to ease in a little on the interior where he won’t be on so much of an island.

Yeah, we’re talking about “easing in” Trey Smith as a starter.

That should give you a good idea of how good the Jackson, Tennessee, native is. He’s just too talented not to start. When the Georgia Tech game rolls around, Smith will be starting somewhere.

While his long-term future will probably be at tackle, Smith could give the Vols a massive, hulking specimen on the inside right away. If he’s already all but guaranteed a spot in the front five (it would be a huge surprise if he isn’t) that means it’ll be an all-out war to see who starts at that other interior spot between Jack Jones and Venzell Boulware. If Smith is better than one of those two, that bodes well for UT because those guys are pretty darn good.

Smith is just a next-level player.

There’s a reason why Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Ole Miss and virtually everybody else in the nation wanted the kid who wound up ESPN’s No. 1-ranked high school player. The Vols got him to stay at home, and he should be the anchor to UT’s line of the present and future.

If Smith can be a stud right away, the Vols are going to be dominant up front. At 6’6″, 320 pounds, Smith may look like a tackle — and he’s certainly athletic enough to play there — but combining him with Kendrick, Robertson and Richmond on the line looks like it could be flat-nasty.

Tennessee needs Smith to be a beast. If he is, the offense is going to be STRONG.

 

• For a look at UT’s quarterbacks “must” list, click here.
• For a look at UT’s running backs “must” list, click here.
• For a look at UT’s wide receivers/tight ends “must” list, click here.

A couple years ago at the old site, we researched the 247 composite rankings for every Tennessee starting lineup since 2006. Last week Joel provided a 2017 depth chart with individual recruiting rankings,  which inspired me to return to those historical rankings to see how Team 121 compares.

The main point:  the 2017 Vols will have 81 recruiting stars in the (projected) starting lineup, which is tied for the most at Tennessee in the last 12 years. And, somewhat surprisingly, it’s more than last year’s team had in its starting lineup.

First, the numbers:

Position	Player	Stars
QB	Dormady/Guarantano	4
RB	John Kelly	3
WR	Jauan Jennings	4
WR	Josh Smith	3
WR	Tyler Byrd	4
TE	Ethan Wolf	3
LT	Drew Richmond	4
LG	Jashon Robertson	3
C	Coleman Thomas	3
RG	Trey Smith	5
RT	Brett Kendrick	3
DE	Jonathan Kongbo	4
DT	Shy Tuttle	4
DT	Kendal Vickers	3
DE	Darrell Taylor	4
LB	Darrin Kirkland Jr.	4
LB	Cortez McDowell	4
CB	Shaq Wiggins	4
CB	Justin Martin	4
NB	Rashaun Gaulden	3
S	Todd Kelly Jr.	4
S	Nigel Warrior	4
	Offense	39
	Defense	42
	Total	81

There are plenty of spots here that are still up for grabs, but only a few that would actually make a difference in the overall rating. Marquez Callaway earning a start over Josh Smith would give one extra star on offense. If Jack Jones slid into the starting lineup at the expense of Coleman Thomas, that would be another. And the biggest available jump would be for Kahlil McKenzie, one of only two five-stars on the roster, to work his way into the starting lineup over Kendal Vickers.

Still, the 81 stars represented here are tied with 2008 and 2015 for the most in the last dozen years. The overall historical ratings (which count walk-ons as two-stars):

• 81:  2008, 2015, 2017
• 79:  2012, 2016
• 78:  2011, 2013
• 77:  2009
• 75:  2007
• 74:  2006, 2010, 2014

This time last year we were envisioning the 2016 Vols putting a higher-rated lineup on the field that never ultimately materialized, especially on defense. McKenzie never became a consistent starter before getting hurt, four-star options at defensive end couldn’t win the job from three-star Corey Vereen, and likewise with Emmanuel Moseley in the secondary (plus the fact that Cam Sutton was also a three-star out of high school). Last year’s squad was capable of throwing something like 83 stars in the starting lineup, but ended up with lower numbers than 2015 and 2017’s projection.

When you’re replacing Dobbs, Kamara, Malone, Barnett, plus the healthy versions of JRM and Sutton we had to bid farewell to last fall, it can seem like an instant rebuild at the end of a decade of doing just that. But Butch and company have recruited well enough that the talent level, at least in terms of recruiting stars, will remain even. The production levels, of course, remain to be seen, but just because they were playing behind six NFL draft picks doesn’t mean they aren’t talented.

Tennessee’s defense is particularly notable here. Having 42 stars in the projected starting lineup – including only two three-stars in Vickers and Gaulden – means only the 2008 defense (with three five-stars) was a higher-rated unit in the last 12 years. Again, we’re not coming into this year expecting outright greatness from this defense. But there is plenty of talent left on Tennessee’s roster, and much of it is young:  Tennessee only has five four-star seniors, and four of them (Wiggins, Martin, TKJr, and Evan Berry) are in the secondary.

What will this all mean in the fall? Who knows. But if and when this team struggles, it won’t simply be because there’s not enough talent. Its success will depend on how the existing talent – much of it unproven – can rise to the occasion.

 

This is a work in progress, but I wanted to go ahead and share even at this stage to provide a look at Tennessee’s roster by depth and class. I’ve included star ratings and 247Sports Composite numbers as well.

As you can see, there is a lot of raw talent in the middle of the class, especially along the defensive line. Also plenty of talent at linebacker and in the secondary. Talent along the offensive line is a bit more diverse, but what some of them lack in stars, they make up for in experience.

Link to full size.

With the start of fall camp right around the corner, it’s time to look at some picks to prosper at each position.

Over the next couple of weeks leading up to the beginning of practice, we’ll examine each position and spotlight a player who the Vols desperately need to perform well as well as one who could elevate the team if he lives up to expectations.

Think of these as the old Chicago White Sox WGN announcers’ “picks to click.”

Today, we’ll look at the wide receivers and tight ends, which finally had a breakout star emerge a season ago in Josh Malone only to see him forego his final year in Knoxville. The Vols also had a budding, big-play maker emerge in Jauan Jennings, who looked like he has what it takes to be the alpha of the offense. But who’s gonna show up after him?

MUST

ETHAN WOLF, Senior Tight End/JOSH SMITH, Senior Wide Receiver

The Vols know what they’re getting from Jennings; a gamer who is going to fight and claw for every ball, not take plays off, jaw at defenders and give his all for the program every game. That’s just the way he is. If he is a bit more consistent with his production in 2017, he’ll be a go-to receiver for the quarterbacks. If he isn’t, it’ll be a major disappointment. He’s that good.

After him, UT needs guys to step up. That’s where Wolf and Smith — a pair of seniors without excuses — to finally emerge as dependable.

Remember when Wolf came in and started right away as a 6’6″ freshman and everybody was talking about just how much potential he had and how it wasn’t out of the realm of possibility for him to be the next Jason Witten, his idol? That seems like a long time and far cry ago. You never know what all goes on behind the scenes and what players are asked to do such as taking on more blocking responsibilities or maybe playing through injuries. He maybe just never clicked in the passing game with Joshua Dobbs. But for whatever reason, Wolf’s career has been pedestrian.

In three years, the Minster, Ohio, native has just 67 catches for 752 yards and four touchdowns. That isn’t good enough, especially for an offense that needs the tight end to thrive to be successful.

The promotion of former tight ends coach Larry Scott to offensive coordinator could really help Wolf to make a major leap. If the Vols have a better passing game than they’ve had the past few years, it’ll be because of a safety valve like Wolf who needs to find soft spots and utilize his big body and soft hands with important catches.

It would behoove the Vols for Wolf to approach the UT reception record of 41 by Chris Brown in 2007.

“I would certainly not object to 50 catches,” Wolf told the Knoxville News-Sentinel’s Mike Strange. “But at the end of the day, I love getting the ball and it’s fun, it makes everything that much better, but I just want to win. Whether that’s eight catches, six catches or zero catches, I’m going to be out there doing everything as hard as I possibly can.”

He’s a needed commodity. If Wolf is involved in the offense, the Vols are likely going to be moving the ball effectively.

Now, onto Smith. It’s much the same story.

As a freshman, the Knoxville native had a bad case of the drops, which was baffling considering he came into UT with everybody believing he had great hands and that’s how he earned early playing time. As a sophomore, he was one of the most dynamic early-season playmakers for UT before a nasty high ankle sprain cost him the season.

Last year, his numbers took a major downturn with 13 catches for just 97 yards. For his career, he has 58 catches for 721 yards and five touchdowns. That won’t cut it.

With a bevy of youngsters to go along with Jennings at receiver, UT needs the 6’1″, 206-pound veteran to step up and be a leader, catching the ball, blocking and overall providing quality reps. It would be terrific if he produced a 30-catch season that allowed for some of the youngsters to come along at their own pace and provide the big plays.

Smith is never going to lead a downfield attack, but Tennessee doesn’t need him to. The Vols just need him to be a consistent rotation guy who can make plays to sustain drives.

If he doesn’t, somebody is going to pass him.

MIGHT

MARQUEZ CALLAWAY, Sophomore Wide Receiver

When you’re talking about somebody looking the part, Callaway certainly does. At 6’2″, 199 pounds and with nice cutting ability and quality speed, the sophomore is a guy you look at in warm-ups and think, “He can make plays.”

Now, he has to do it.

The Warner Robins, Georgia, native had just a single catch for 13 yards a season ago. Now, the Vols are going to look to him to be a preliminary target along with Tyler Byrd. Though Callaway is far from a sure thing, he’s a strong bet to emerge. The Vols desperately need him to.

Why?

Because he can be a difference-maker. He and Byrd are guys who have the athletic ability to do big things if Dormady/Guarantano get them the ball. They’re quick-twitch athletes with breakaway speed, as evidenced by Callaway’s punt return for a touchdown a year ago against Tennessee Tech. Of course, the Golden Eagles are a far cry from Alabama or Florida, but it was a glimpse of Callaway’s ability.

All throughout the spring and offseason, Callaway’s name came up as one to watch. UT has a lot of intriguing youngsters like him, Byrd, speedy redshirt freshman Latrell Williams, smooth sophomore Brandon Johnson and the freshman trio of Jordan Murphy, Josh Palmer and Jacquez Jones. Any of those guys could replace Callaway as the guy being discussed here.

But the pick for this column is Callaway. He’s capable of providing 30-40 catches with some of them being big gains and touchdown-scoring grabs. Tennessee needs a showcase pass-catcher to go along with the dawg in Jennings. With significant reps and his first real playing time, Callaway needs to prove he’s as good as his recruiting ranking.

• For a look at UT’s quarterbacks “must” list, click here.
• For a look at UT’s running backs “must” list, click here.

Yesterday, I pushed back against the SEC Media Days talking point that the Vols losing “all of that talent” to the NFL meant that they had missed their opportunity. My counterargument was that much of the talent that the Vols lost to the NFL was already gone in 2016 due to injury. Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Cam Sutton, and Alvin Kamara were all missing for key games last season.

It is true, though, that some NFL talent that was available the entire season last year won’t be there this fall. Derek Barnett, Josh Malone, and Josh Dobbs all played every game last year. They weren’t missing in action. They need to be replaced.

But that brings us to another problem with blindly buying into the idea that Tennessee has missed its opportunity because of the talent has departed: It relies on a questionable assumption, namely that the Vols won’t be able to replace the departing players with guys of equal caliber.

This assumption is an easy one to accept. If we haven’t seen six guys go in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft in 15 years, then it makes sense to believe that it will be a long time before we see it again. It just feels wrong to believe that the guys who will take up the reigns for Barnett, Malone, and Dobbs could be as good as they were.

But here’s the thing: It’s could be true.

Derek Barnett and defensive end

Of course, we can’t know for sure at this point, but we can analyze it a bit more to see if the assumptions we are making are reasonable.

Derek Barnett was the 10th-best player in the Vols’ 2014 class, according to the 247Sports Composite. His rating was .9164. A 4-star recruit, he was the 5th-best player in Tennessee, the 13th-best strongside defensive end nationally, and the 208th-best player overall nationally. He over-performed that ranking, setting a new Tennessee record for career sacks.

But Barnett is likely to be replaced by Jonathan Kongbo, who holds a great deal of promise. Kongbo was the third-best guy in the Vols’ class of 2016 with a rating of .9584. He was also a 4-star recruit, but on top of that, he was ranked as the nation’s No. 1 JUCO player in his class. He doesn’t have Barnett’s on-the-field resume, but he hasn’t had much opportunity, either. All Kongbo proved last year was that he was not a defensive tackle. What he does have, though, is a recruiting profile that is even better than Barnett’s. It’s a fact.

Even if Konbgo doesn’t live up to expectations, there’s always Kyle Phillips, another guy with a strong recruiting profile. Phillips was the second-best player in the Vols’ class of 2015 with a rating of .9832. Yet another 4-star guy, Phillips was the best player in his class in the state of Tennessee, the fourth-best strongside defensive end, and the 37th-best player nationally.

Josh Malone and wide receiver

Malone was the highest-rated guy in the Vols’ 2014 class with a rating of .9818. Still only a 4-star recruit, Malone was the best player overall in Tennessee in 2014, the fifth-best wide receiver nationally, and the 36th-best player overall nationally. He took a while to get going, but he had a stellar season last year and was drafted by the Bengals in the fourth round.

It is almost a foregone conclusion that Jajuan Jennings will take over as the feature receiver this fall. You’ll recall that Jennings was recruited as a quarterback and only moved to receiver after he arrived on campus. Still, his recruiting profile sheds some light on his talent. Jennings was the ninth-best player in the Vols’ class of 2015 and had a rating of .9257. He was the seventh-best player in Tennessee, the sixth-best dual-threat quarterback nationally, and the 167th-best player in the nation.

The thing is, with Jennings, his recruiting profile is practically already irrelevant. He’s playing a different position, and all he’s done at Tennessee so far is this:

and this:

And more. If you don’t believe that Jajuan Jennings is every bit as good as NFL Draft Pick Josh Malone, I don’t know what to tell you.

Josh Dobbs and quarterback

Looking back at Dobbs’ recruiting profile, he was much higher-rated than I remember. He was the second-best player in the Vols’ class in 2013 and had a rating of .9276. Also a 4-star, Dobbs was the 14th-best player in the state of Georgia, the 10th-best pro-style QB (heh) nationally, and the 164th-best player nationally. The guy is a record-setting quarterback despite playing through a very difficult period in the school’s history.

How much should we expect of his replacements? Quinten Dormady was the 14th-best player in the Vols’ 2015 class with a rating of .9029. Guarantano was the second-best guy in the Vols’ 2016 class with a rating of .9612. Both are 4-star quarterbacks. Dormady was also the 38th-best player in the talent-rich state of Texas, the 11th-best pro-style quarterback in the class, and the 262nd-best player nationally, while Guarantano was the second-best player in the state of New Jersey, the nation’s No. 1 dual-threat quarterback, and the 81st-best player in the class nationally.

Dormady, who is probably the favorite to start this fall, seems to be outperforming his ranking, and Guarantano hasn’t had much of a chance to prove anything yet, but both are talented. Just going on recruiting profiles, Guarantano’s is better than Dobbs’.

Here’s all of that data in table form:

We can’t know, but there’s reason to believe we won’t miss the NFL guys as much as we fear

Hear me loud and clear: I am not saying we are not going to miss Barnett, Malone, and Dobbs, and I’m not saying that Kongbo, Jennings, Dormady, and Guarantano are going to be every bit as good.

I’m just saying that if we are going to guess, we should guess based on actual information, and I am not convinced that the window of opportunity has closed to the Vols because they lost key players to the NFL. Those guys are not going to be replaced by something resembling a 2008-2012 roster; they’re freeing up opportunities for some really promising and talented guys on the 2017 roster.

The guys who are gone to the NFL were great talents for the Vols, but don’t overlook the potential of the guys likely to replace them.

With the start of fall camp right around the corner, it’s time to look at some picks to prosper at each position.

Over the next couple of weeks leading up to the beginning of practice, we’ll examine each position and spotlight a player who the Vols desperately need to perform well as well as one who could elevate the team if he lives up to expectations.

Think of these as the old Chicago White Sox WGN announcers’ “picks to click.”

Today, we’ll look at the running backs, which has been a team strength over the past two seasons with Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd running herd. Both of those guys are gone for different reasons, and Tennessee’s running attack under coach Robert Gillespie moves on. Let’s take a look at some key cogs to make that group tick.

MUST

JOHN KELLY, Junior

The Detroit native looked fantastic following Hurd quitting the team a season ago, running like his job depended on it and becoming a between-the-tackles force for UT. He seems to be even better at the point of attack than either Kamara or Hurd ever was, and though he’ll never have the athleticism of AK or the power of Hurd, he may just be the ideal every-down back for this system.

Every Tennessee fan is excited to see what he produces as RB1. The 5’9″, 205-pound third-year player enjoyed a stellar sophomore year, leading all UT running backs with 630 yards on 98 carries (6.4 average) and scoring five times.

Way back in his freshman year before he ever had a carry, Gillespie told the media he thought he had three future NFL runners in that film room. New Orleans picked Kamara in this year’s draft, and who knows what will happen to Hurd after he transferred to Baylor to play receiver, but Kelly looks well on his way to making his coach three-quarters right.

It’s easy to forget about Kelly in the SEC considering the league boasts studs like Derrius Guice, Ralph Webb, Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Bo Scarbrough, Damien Harris, Kamryn Pettway and Benny Snell, but he will have every opportunity to run his way into the upper echelon of the league’s top backs.

When he was being recruited, several Big Ten teams (including Michigan and Michigan State) wanted him for defense, thinking he’d be an excellent defensive back. The Vols were insistent on him playing running back, and he’s worked out very well.

Now, this is his show. There’s no reason to believe he will fail to seize the spotlight. Not only is he the ideal size for an inside back, he’s one of the fastest players on the offense. It’s going to be a very big year for Kelly. If it’s not, it will spell doom for UT because the Vols really need the running backs to take pressure off Quinten Dormady and Jarrett Guarantano.

Kelly’s numbers really could become special when extrapolated across an entire season, especially when you consider the following. Pro Football Focus rated Kelly third in the SEC among returning tailbacks in “Elusive Rating,” a formula of missed tackles and yards after contact.

No returning SEC running back was as elusive in 2016. pic.twitter.com/6dI2VujDf3

— PFF College (@PFF_College) July 3, 2017

There’s nothing wrong with that, considering it measures how well a running back does after help from his offensive line. If Kelly has a big year, UT’s offense may not miss a beat because that means the offensive line is living up to its depth and potential and the quarterbacks don’t have games on their shoulders.

MIGHT

TY CHANDLER, Freshman

All the hype and buzz surrounding Hurd when he came into Knoxville out of the Midstate a few years ago was considerable. But this year’s Nashville-area running back may wind up generating the most postseason talk.

There’s no question the Vols got a major coup when the 5’11”, 195-pound Montgomery Bell Academy product whose father went to Ole Miss decided to stay in the Volunteer State rather than go to Oxford or Athens, Georgia, or several other places, for that matter.

Basically everybody wanted the nation’s fifth-rated running back.

He’s walking into a perfect running situation. With Kelly as the only proven back, Chandler could — and probably even should — slide into that No. 2 role. The only player in front of him is rising sophomore Carlin Fils-aime, and though the Florida product should find a nice role in the offense, he doesn’t have the same elite skill set as Chandler.

The Vols brought in three runners in the class, including Tim Jordan and Trey Coleman. But Chandler is the stud. He can do it all, running between tackles, breaking away from defenders and even proving he’s able to catch the ball out of the backfield. He reminds me a lot of Michel coming out of high school, and that would be a big-time add for the Vols.

He could wind up even better than Michel if he continues to develop.

Regardless, the Vols desperately need Chandler to be as good as advertised. No SEC football team gets by with just one quality running back; UT needs two or three at least.

Chandler is also blazing fast, as evidenced by his MBA record 10.83 100-meter dash, according to GoVols247’s Ryan Callahan.

With that kind of speed and upside, it’s hard not to like Chandler’s chances of making a massive impact right away.

• For a look at UT’s quarterbacks “must” list, click here.

 

I was watching the Tennessee Takeover replay of the 2016 Tennessee-Georgia game last night when my middle daughter came downstairs to put her cello away and asked me why I was watching a game I’d already seen. I was especially tired and so I just smiled and said, “We tend to forget stuff.”

As time goes by, we consolidate our memories into efficient shortcuts that are easier to remember, and as a result, the memory of the actual particulars fades. The abbreviated version of the 2016 Vols-Bulldogs game is that the Vols won that game on a miraculous Hail Mary when Josh Dobbs flung the ball to the end zone with four seconds left and Jajuan Jennings leaped over everybody to go get the ball and the victory.

If we sit down and give it more time, we might reminisce about some other details, such as how Georgia had nearly won the game just before that with their own miracle. We might even remember the sack-fumble-touchdown just before that that gave the Vols the lead.

What I’d forgotten, though, until I watched it again last night, is that Tennessee would have had seven more points had Jalen Hurd not decided it would be cool to score a touchdown while walking across the goal line and that Tennessee played that entire game with backup linebackers against a hammer of an offense. I’d forgotten that at least two key guys didn’t even got on the field against Georgia due to injury.

“The window of opportunity has closed”

One of the main talking points at SEC Media Days last week by regional and national pundits was that the Vols had missed their opportunity, that if they couldn’t do it with “all of that talent” last year, there’s no way they can do it this year with “all of that talent” gone.

It’s an easy argument to make, and it’s just as easy to swallow. Tennessee had six players taken in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft this spring – defensive end Derek Barnett, running back Alvin Kamara, defensive back Cam Sutton, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin, wide receiver Josh Malone, and quarterback Josh Dobbs. That’s the best draft class for the Vols in 15 years.

So, if X + those guys = “disappointment,” then X – those guys = “even more disappointment.” If the Vols couldn’t get it done with them, they surely can’t do it without them. Sounds reasonable.

But there are a couple of problems with that argument, one of them being that it assumes that X is constant when it is not, which is a topic for a later post. Another problem with it is that last year wasn’t always “X + those guys.” “Those guys” weren’t all available at all the right times last season.

Who’s gone now and who was already gone last year

Only half of the guys who were drafted this spring played the entire season. Derek Barnett, Josh Dobbs, and Josh Malone all survived the 2016 gauntlet injury-free. They were important to whatever degree of success you assign to the 2016 season, and they’ll no doubt be missed.

But the other three – Reeves-Maybin, Sutton, and Kamara – all missed significant time or key games. Maybin suffered his injury against Ohio in the third game of the season. He then tried to play against Florida but just wasn’t himself at all and then missed the rest of the season. He was effectively not a part of the wins against Florida and Georgia or the losses to Texas A&M, Alabama, South Carolina, or Vanderbilt.

Cam Sutton also suffered his injury against Ohio early in the season and missed almost all of the key games of the season. He was unavailable for Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, and South Carolina. He did not return until the Kentucky game.

Even Alvin Kamara was absent due to injury for a couple of key games. He was injured against Alabama and then missed the South Carolina game (as well as the Tennessee Tech game) after that.

All of those NFL guys are gone, so it is true that they’ll be unavailable against Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU this year. But Reeves-Maybin and Sutton – two of the three most important players on defense last season – were not available for Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama last season, either. And Kamara was missing for Alabama and South Carolina, and it’s not much of a stretch to say that his absence (and Jalen Hurd’s reported refusal to enter the game) was the difference against the Gamecocks as it resulted in an unprepared backup running back causing a key fumble.

Yes, Barnett, Dobbs, and Malone leaving presents Tennessee with a challenge of replacing NFL-caliber talent. But it’s not telling the whole story to say simply that “all of that talent is gone now.” The rest of the story is that, at the times it mattered most, much of that talent was already gone last year.