Gameday on Rocky Top

This is the tenth year of SEC expansion, with Missouri and Texas A&M joining the fray in the 2012-13 season. It felt like it would be an immediate upgrade: the Tigers went 30-5 the year before, earning a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

But the first year of league expansion ended up being a relative low point for SEC basketball in 2013: Missouri made it in as a #9 seed, Florida at #3, and Ole Miss got in via Marshall Henderson in the SEC Tournament. The league finished seventh in KenPom’s conference rankings (based on the strength of a .500 team in each league). The next two years, the SEC was all about the team at the top: Florida went 18-0 in league play in 2014, Kentucky 18-0 and 31-0 overall in 2015. And in 2016, the league again sent just three teams to the NCAA Tournament, with Kentucky and Texas A&M splitting the title at 13-5.

The league’s forward momentum started quietly in 2017. Rick Barnes and Bruce Pearl were still getting things off the ground in Knoxville and Auburn. Five teams made the dance that season, and they took advantage: Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina all made the Elite Eight. By 2018 the Vols and Tigers were ready, sharing the league title at 13-5. And eight teams made the NCAA Tournament.

It was definitive progress for the SEC, which finished fourth in the KenPom conference rankings. But the Vols were actually the highest-seeded of those eight tournament teams, leading a group that fell between the three and nine lines.

For better or worse, Tennessee’s best teams have coincided with the league’s highest peaks. The next year in 2019, the SEC had five teams seeded #5 or higher in the tournament. LSU won the league at 16-2, with Kentucky and Tennessee at 15-3. It is still the only season to feature multiple teams winning 15+ league games.

2020 would’ve been a step back in terms of NCAA Tournament bids, but the league was back at it last season with six teams in the field, including three earning a #5 seed or higher. The SEC again finished fourth in KenPom’s rankings.

That brings us to the present, where four teams will enter Saturday with a chance to earn a piece of the league title. Whoever comes in fourth is going to finish 13-5, which has never happened before. That number was good enough to win the league in 2016 and 2018. And in the latest Bracket Matrix, the SEC has one team on each of the first six seed lines.

In KenPom, the SEC is the second-best conference in college basketball. And they trail only the Big 12, a league they’ve bested in our annual challenge the last two seasons.

The league’s top six teams are all in the Top 25 in KenPom. In these last ten years, the SEC only had more than three teams finish in the Top 25 twice: four in 2018, and five in 2019. Once again, the league’s overall health has coincided with Tennessee’s best basketball.

It’s exciting to consider the league sustaining this level into the future, with Texas and Oklahoma on their way in a few years. But there’s never been this kind of excitement and parity at the top in the present. We’ll see it unfold on Saturday, with four elite teams in the hunt for the league title. We’ll see it in Tampa, with a number of other schools trying to get in from the bubble. And we’ll see it where it matters most in the NCAA Tournament, with a record number of schools giving themselves a chance to advance.

This is as good as SEC basketball has been in my lifetime. And Tennessee still has a chance to win it.

Tennessee’s win over Auburn was the program’s 13th victory over a Top 5 team in the last 17 seasons: seven for Bruce Pearl, six for Rick Barnes. And there may be additional opportunities this season, as early as two weeks from now in Tampa.

Yesterday felt like a celebration of Tennessee basketball. And in that spirit, here’s a quick look back at each of those 13 wins.

2006: Tennessee 80 #2 Florida 76 (Knoxville)

I’m from Knoxville, but have lived in southwest Virginia for 10 of the last 16 years. So a couple of the loudest crowds people always reference – Lofton over Durant, and all of the huge home wins this season – I’ve missed. So in my personal experience, this game is the loudest I’ve ever heard Thompson-Boling Arena. There are different kinds of great crowds, depending on your role as the favorite or the underdog, the rivalry, etc. This was just a bewildered audience: Tennessee was 11-3 coming in, but all our significant outcomes had happened on the road. In Bruce Pearl’s first season and four years removed from the NCAA Tournament, you just weren’t sure what Tennessee could really do in a game like this. And the Vols rewarded all comers with 29 from Chris Lofton, plus a game-winning steal and dish to Dane Bradshaw. This January Saturday made it feel like anything was suddenly possible…and for much of the next 17 years, it has been. Speaking of the Gators…

2007: Tennessee 86 #5 Florida 76 (Knoxville)

Florida won the national championship in 2006, then brought all their guys back. They beat us 94-78 in Gainesville while Lofton sat out with an ankle injury. At 24-2 (11-0), they lost a couple games on the road and fell to fifth in the poll. But everyone knew their ceiling was highest in an incredible year for college basketball, including Kevin Durant with Rick Barnes in Texas. If you weren’t there or were too young for it, it’s hard to describe what it was like to watch Al Horford and Joakim Noah and these guys warm up, and think to yourself, “We have to do everything right to win.” And the Vols did everything right: 21 for Lofton, 20 turnovers for Florida, and a third win over what would soon become the two-time champs. This night was a celebration of Tennessee, with Peyton Manning in the house and the late, great Pat Summitt singing Rocky Top.

2008: #2 Tennessee 66 #1 Memphis 62 (Memphis)

Circumstances that will be impossible to duplicate for the rest of our lives: 1 vs 2, Pearl vs Calipari, undefeated rival. The game itself was not a work of art. But the Vols got it from everywhere: JaJuan Smith kept us alive early, Tyler Smith kept us alive late, and Wayne Chism & J.P. Prince were sensational on both ends of the floor throughout. This thing tipped off at 9:00 PM at the end of the longest day of anticipation any of our basketball teams has ever faced. And the celebration lasted deep into the night; in some parts of the state, I’m sure it’s still going.

2010: #16 Tennessee 76 #1 Kansas 68 (Knoxville)

The least likely of any of these wins. Tennessee had four players dismissed or suspended nine days earlier, then got just 14 minutes from Prince and 19 from Chism due to foul trouble. But Scotty Hopson had 17, and Bobby Maze almost got a triple-double with 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists. Renaldo Woolridge shot 31.9% from the arc in 2010, making just 15 threes all season. Four of them were in this game. Skylar McBee’s three to beat the shot clock is another loudest moment in TBA contender. And 2010 was just getting started…

2010: #19 Tennessee 74 #2 Kentucky 65 (Knoxville)

We still talk about comparing Kentucky teams to Calipari’s first, which made John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins instant rock stars. The one-and-done Cats were 27-1 (12-1) coming into this one. But they weren’t great at the three ball. And by not great, I mean 2-of-22 in this game. The Vols were up 11 at halftime, and up 19 with 14 to play. Kentucky tied it with two minutes to go. But J.P. Prince gave the Vols the lead back, and Scotty Hopson hit another shot-clock beating three with 41 seconds to play to seal it.

2010: #15 Tennessee 76 #5 Ohio State 73 (Sweet 16)

Tennessee’s only trip to the Elite Eight came through #2 seed Ohio State, who broke Vol hearts three seasons earlier in the same round. Unlike some of the others on this list, this was a tremendous basketball game from start to finish, including a frantic final few minutes. Evan Turner scored 31 for the Buckeyes. But Wayne Chism had 22 and 11 for Tennessee, Prince added 14, and the Vols got 11 off the bench from Cameron Tatum. Prince blocked Turner on the final shot, and Tennessee danced where it hadn’t danced before.

2011: #11 Tennessee 83 #3 Pittsburgh 76 (Pittsburgh)

Peak Scotty Hopson: 27 points on 10-of-13 shooting, plus 19 from Melvin Goins, and the Vols simply ambushed the Panthers. Tennessee was a crisp 7-of-11 from the arc in this one, moving the Vols to 7-0 on the season. It got away from everyone from there, but this was as good of a performance as any game on this list.

2017: Tennessee 82 #4 Kentucky 80 (Knoxville)

The year before, in Rick Barnes’ first season, the Vols surprised Kentucky with a big comeback win. This time, it was good basketball throughout. Robert Hubbs scored 25, Admiral Schofield added 15 off the bench, and freshman Grant Williams, hello: 13 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, 4 blocks. Much of that with Bam Adebayo going at him. In the moment, it felt like a great win to get your season going toward the NIT, which the Vols ultimately missed. Much has changed since then.

2019: #7 Tennessee 76 #1 Gonzaga 73 (Phoenix)

In KenPom, this is the best team Tennessee has beaten in the last 20 years. And the game itself is probably the best 40-minute watch of any of these (the three-minute highlights are also pretty great). Admiral Schofield turned in what still might be the best non-Lofton individual performance I’ve ever seen: 30 points, 6-of-10 from the arc. The game that moved Tennessee into the national championship conversation.

2019: #7 Tennessee 71 #4 Kentucky 52 (Knoxville)

Tennessee got to number one, stayed there for a month, then got punched in Lexington. A couple of incredibly tense end-of-game situations followed in Baton Rouge and Oxford. So when Kentucky came to Knoxville for the rematch, the best way to describe the Thompson-Boling crowd that day was angry. Like an hour before tip-off. It simmered for a bit: the Vols were up 23-18 from the seven minute mark until almost the four minute mark of the first half. And then Admiral Schofield went baseline over Nick Richards (“That’s a man’s jam!”), followed by a Grant Williams three, and this game was over.

2019: #8 Tennessee 82 #4 Kentucky 78 (SEC Tournament semifinals)

Look, let’s not pretend you haven’t watched the last 2:30 of this like a billion times.

2022: #16 Tennessee 76 #4 Kentucky 63 (Knoxville)

One of the most satisfying things in sports is to go into one of these, “Are we good enough to compete at the highest level,” games against your biggest rival, and leave with the answer being, emphatically, “Yes.” (more from our site on February 16).

2022: #17 Tennessee 67 #3 Auburn 62 (Knoxville)

But this was a great day for Tennessee basketball. I’m so thankful for the past. And I’m so grateful for the present. (more from our site yesterday).

Man, I adore all of these. Which one is your favorite?

There will come a time when Rick Barnes is no longer our coach, riding off into an orange sunset, maybe some gold around the edges. Whenever that happens, we’ll hope whoever is next can continue the program’s momentum.

And because of Rick Barnes and Bruce Pearl, we’ll know such a thing is possible.

Difficult, perhaps. Rare, I hope not. But for Tennessee to live at this level under multiple head coaches? I know that’s possible. And I wasn’t sure it was 11 years ago.

Man, we had fun when Pearl was here. There were so many great days to be a Tennessee Vol.

And man, today was so much fun. And it’s been so much fun for a long time now.

They seem so different, Pearl and Barnes, that sometimes it feels like there’s nothing to do but compare them directly. And in part, that’s the nature of the game: there are winners and losers every time it’s tipped. Pearl and Auburn had won six in a row in this series, though this was the first one in Knoxville during that span to really carry this kind of weight. And what both Pearl and Barnes have done these last five seasons is both remarkable and incredibly similar.

But today, Knoxville was indeed a difference maker:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: I do believe we have the best homecourt advantage in the country. I do. Never in my career have I said anything like this during the game, but today I told the guys to get some stops and the crowd would take over this game.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) February 26, 2022

And today was indeed a great day to be a Tennessee Vol, a great day for our head coach, and for everyone on this roster, because they all did their part.

I thought this game was a great representation of both of these coaches, and the teams who reflect them so well. Auburn was confident, and they forced Tennessee turnovers both early and (very) late. Our season-high for giveaways is 20 at Rupp Arena, then 18 vs Villanova and 18 in the overtime win against Ole Miss. It has been synonymous with some of our worst basketball, cutting the legs out from underneath our defense. And Auburn’s final flourish left us sitting on 18 today as well.

But Tennessee remained steady. It’s a reflection of who they are, even in the face of significant adversity. Auburn led 39-28 with 16:42 to go. The Vol run from there was beautiful, from Brandon Huntley-Hatfield’s three and putback dunk, to Zakai Zeigler’s three to tie it, to Kennedy Chandler’s steady attack at the rim. But the constant is Tennessee’s defense: during that stretch, Auburn went nine-and-a-half minutes without making a shot.

When things got unclogged a bit, it was Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James hitting back-to-back threes to keep Tennessee in front. When we suddenly needed another bucket, it was Kennedy Chandler again. And at the end of the night, it was John Fulkerson and his game-high nine rebounds leading one of our most sacred traditions:

John Fulkerson directs the Pride of the Southland Band, which he helped found in 1869. pic.twitter.com/Ekl3Mzd5Sh

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) February 26, 2022

Everyone who played for Tennessee scored. It came, in part, through some of what Auburn has hurt us with: a massive 54-31 edge on the glass, including 21 offensive rebounds for the Vols. When you go at Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith, you need every opportunity. And today: Huntley-Hatfield with eight boards, Uros Plavsic with seven, Jonas Aidoo with five, Josiah-Jordan James with nine to match Fulky. Jabari Smith was incredible with 27 points and eight boards. But the Vols held Walker Kessler to just eight and five.

Tennessee’s most magic number remains shooting 29+% from three. The volume was less today, but they still hit it at 6-of-16 (37.5%). The Vols are now 19-1 when they shoot 29% or better from the arc, with it still requiring Kentucky’s Rupp Arena performance to vanquish them at that level.

But several of Tennessee’s other key stats didn’t go all in our favor: 18 turnovers, just 32.8% from the floor overall thanks to Auburn’s shot-blocking presence. The Tigers had just a dozen turnovers overall, which is normally Tennessee’s greatest strength. But nine of those came in the second half.

This probably wasn’t Tennessee’s best basketball; Auburn gets some credit for that. So did Arizona for much of what transpired in the second half of that game. And yet, the Vols still came out on top in the end against two potential number one seeds.

Tennessee moves to 21-7 (12-4), and we’re headed for the dramatic to finish league play next week. Win at Georgia on Tuesday, and the Vols will tip-off against Arkansas next Saturday still alive in the race for the SEC title. Auburn is at Mississippi State (Wednesday 9:00 PM), then hosts South Carolina an hour after the Vols and Razorbacks begin on Saturday.

We’ll spend plenty of time talking about Tennessee’s resume, because it is indeed worth it. There’s so much still to play for.

But this was a great day for Tennessee basketball. I’m so thankful for the past. And I’m so grateful for the present.

Go Vols.

It’s been a busy week, so this is a Dragnet version of the Four Factors Forecast for this afternoon’s big game between projected 3-seed Tennessee and projected 1-seed Auburn at Thompson-Boling.

Score Prediction

The lines have the Vols as 3- to 3.5-point favorites.

KemPom projects a two-point win for the Vols — Tennessee 71, Auburn 69 — giving us a 60% chance of winning.

Hat Guy is once again at the wheel, and he likes Auburn by 4 before adjusting for home-court advantage, which according to KenPom is 3.8. Accounting for that, Hat Guy projects overtime with both teams at 74 at the end of regulation.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

If you listened to the podcast this week, you’ll recall that we spent a fair amount of time wondering what the Kryptonite is for this Tennessee team. My current hypothesis is that the thing that gives the Vols the worst fits is guards who are tall and/or have a long reach. Auburn’s guards are 5’11” to 6’1″ and, presumably, not especially reachy, either, so maybe we’re in a Kryptonite-free zone this afternoon.

According to KenPom, Tennessee’s strength of schedule is ranked No. 7 and Auburn’s is ranked No. 32.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Turnover %

Offensive Rebound %

Free Throw Rate

Those are the straight-up comparisons. Let’s see what it all looks like with the opponent impact thrown in.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Oof. That’s a recipe for an afternoon of frustrating shooting for the Vols.

Turnover %

Offensive Rebounding %

Free Throw Rate

Go Vols.

For all that Tennessee and Auburn have accomplished in the last five seasons, it’s kind of strange to realize tomorrow is the first elite showdown between the two in Knoxville during that time.

In Bruce Pearl’s first three seasons (2015-17), Auburn went 44-54. In that same span, the Vols went 47-51 in Rick Barnes’ first two seasons, plus Donnie Tyndall’s year. The two met on January 2, 2018 in Thompson-Boling, with the Vols fresh off a frustrating loss at Arkansas to open league play. Auburn was 12-1, but had played no one rated higher than 45th in KenPom. The Vols were 9-3, and would leave 9-4 (0-2) after Auburn grabbed 22 offensive rebounds.

We wouldn’t meet again until March 9, 2019. In those 14 months, both schools established themselves as a force not just in the SEC, but on the national stage. And neither of us have left.

After going 44-54 from 2015-17, Auburn is 119-41 (56-31 SEC) from 2018-22. After going 47-51 from 2015-17, Tennessee is 112-45 (58-28 SEC) in the same span.

Both are on the way to a fourth NCAA Tournament seed of #5 or higher in these last five seasons (including Auburn as a five seed in the final Bracket Matrix before the pandemic in 2020.) And both are in the hunt for a second SEC Championship, to go with the one we shared in 2018.

Head-to-head, Auburn has won six in a row. The Tigers won in Knoxville in that January 2018 clash, before we both knew where we were headed. And then we missed each other entirely during the come-up over those next 14 months. The only other game in Knoxville since then was the regular season finale in 2020, when Auburn hit 14 threes and drove the Vols back toward the bubble after the win at Rupp Arena.

The two meetings in 2019 were of significant consequence for Tennessee: the 84-80 loss on the Plains in the regular season finale (13 threes for Auburn) cost the Vols the league title. And the rematch the following Sunday in the SEC Tournament (15 threes for Auburn) cost the Vols a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, spoiling the win over Kentucky in the semifinals.

In Auburn’s six straight wins in the series, the Tigers are shooting 36.6% from the arc, averaging 11.2 made threes per game. And that volume is compounded by an average of 14.2 offensive rebounds per game for the Tigers.

Tennessee has solved some of the offensive rebounding woes that previously plagued them, most notably in the home win over LSU. And this Auburn team isn’t as three-happy as its predecessors, getting plenty of great work inside the arc from Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith. We’ll see how much those old woes translate.

I’m much more confident in Knoxville, where the Vols have handled Arizona, Kentucky, LSU, and everyone else this season. Auburn brings in the lowest-rated strength of schedule in the SEC: the Tigers won in Tuscaloosa 81-77 on January 11, but lost at Arkansas and at Florida. They do not go to Rupp or Baton Rouge this year. The crowd will have every opportunity to be a difference-maker as Tennessee pursues its third win over a potential #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. No one in the nation would have something like that on their resume, and no one could doubt setting this team’s ceiling at the very top. It is an extra large basketball game.

There have been incredibly consequential Tennessee/Auburn games in the last five seasons. And Rick Barnes and Bruce Pearl make it easy to believe there will be others, perhaps just two weeks from now in Tampa.

But as both programs have risen, this is the first one of such stature in Knoxville. And I’m excited to see what awaits inside Thompson-Boling on Saturday.

Go Vols.

Presenting the Four Factors Forecast for this afternoon’s game between Tennessee and Arkansas at Bud Walton Arena.

What to Watch

Rule No. 1: No dancing on that giant logo.

Rule No. 2: Avoid turnovers that lead to runaway rip-roaring for the home crowd.

Rule No. 3: Set the Anti-Rip-Roaring-inator on Willy-Nilly and deploy at will. (Try to get more offensive rebounds than usual.)

See Rules 4(a)-(e) below regarding fouls.

Score Prediction

KemPom projects a two-point win for the Vols tomorrow — Tennessee 71, Arkansas 69 — giving the good guys a 56% chance of winning. The lines have the Hogs as 2- to 2.5-point favorites. Expect a nail biter either way.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

The Vols have a bit of an edge when shooting the three-ball, and the Hogs have a bit of an edge in both defensive boards and trips to the free-throw line.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

So we’re a better shooting team than they are. Good to know. They’re not Arizona or Kentucky, but they do fit the profile of a team good enough to beat us at their place.

So, Rule No. 1: No dancing on the Hog logo. And that thing is so outrageously huge that looks like it’s eating the paint under one basket and . . . let’s call it making a mess . . . under the other. So, Revised Rule No. 1: No dancing anywhere.

Turnover %

We are basically the same team in different laundry when it comes to turnovers.

Rule No. 2: Be just a little bit better than usual protecting the ball. Turnovers lead not just to points, but to exciting points and a rip-roaring good time for the home crowd. Which leads to the officials feeling lonely and left out and wanting some of that applause for themselves. Which leads to foul trouble and (and free throws for the other team — see below) and still more rip-roaring. So, Revised Rule No. 2: Avoid Rip-Roaring by taking especially good care of the ball this afternoon.

Offensive Rebound %

This makes it look like we’re much better on the offensive boards than are the Feral Pigs. But if you look at the actual numbers up at the top of the post, you’ll see that the advantage really only adds up to half of an o-board per game.

So, Rule No. 3: Be just a little bit better than usual on the offensive glass. Every offensive rebound is an extra possession. It’s kind of like forcing a turnover except that you are (usually) immediately in the paint under the basket with the defense out of position. It frustrates and wears out the defense. It frustrates the crowd, deflates them, makes them suddenly aware that their feet are hurting from all that standing, and installs an obsession with consuming concessions in silence. Basically, offensive rebounds are Anti-Rip-Roaring Devices. Doofenshmirtz would call them Anti-Rip-Roaring-inators. So, Revised Rule No. 3: Set the Anti-Rip-Roaring-inator on Willy-Nilly and deploy at will.

Free Throw Rate

Ouch. Arkansas appears to have a major advantage at getting to the free-throw line. The actual numbers back that up, as the Razorbacks on average get to the stripe seven more times per game than the Vols do. In a predicted two-point contest, that’s a problem.

So, Rule No. 4: Stay in front of them. Remember the principle of verticality. No foolishness away from the basket like fouling jump shooters or moving screens. Stay out of the bonus and dial up the aggression in these areas only late in the halves and only if needed. On the other side, at every opportunity, yell at Chandler and Ziegler to turn on the jets and get to the hoop and even things out a bit.

Okay, we’ll call that Rules 4(a)-(e).

Those are the straight-up comparisons. Let’s see what it all looks like with the opponent impact thrown in.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

I feel like Tennessee’s season-long eFG% numbers are still suffering from the periodic bouts of narcolepsy that plagued them early in the season. Regardless, Arkansas has a good defense from a shooting perspective. The antidote is crisp ball movement, getting to Jimmy Dykes’ favorite “third side of the floor,” and then choosing between open jump shots or our burners driving to the bucket and doing something happy when they get there.

When the Hogs have the ball, they’re not especially great shooters, so the Vols just need to do what they do.

Turnover %

Listen, there is some Rip-Roaring in the forecast, so just brace for it. We’re a little too careless with the ball, and Arkansas has the ability to turn that carelessness into absolute sloppiness. Minimizing the turnovers must be a priority.

On the other end, they’re about as careless as we are, but our guys have the ability to turn their carelessness into absolutely demoralizing chaos for them and obsession-with-concessions territory for us. Let’s do it.

Offensive Rebounding %

Okay, so those coveted offensive rebounds are not only usually hard to come by, the Razorbacks are going to make them especially rare. Like most (all?) of Doofenshmirtz’s -inator inventions, the Anti-Rip-Roaringinator may be thwarted by Agent P’s successor, Agent R. CURSE YOU, BIG RED THE RAZORBACK! (Seriously, though, celebrate every o-board we get. They’re valuable.)

Worse yet, offensive rebounds may be much easier to grab for the Hogs because we don’t put up much resistance.

Free Throw Rate

This is where the real problem is, I think. We should get to the free-throw line as often as usual, but the combination of them being really good at getting there and us being really bad at keeping opponents from there spells trouble. See Rules 4(a)-(e) above. The goal isn’t to win this mini-battle, but to minimize its impact.

Go Vols.

What’s next for this Tennessee team?

With five games to go, the Vols are 19-6 (10-3). Two of the remaining five are Tennessee’s first match-ups with the SEC’s basement: at Missouri (10-15) on Tuesday, at Georgia (6-20) the following Tuesday. Those, of course, need to be wins. The other three are Quad 1 opportunities, where the Vols are currently 5-6 on the year.

In the SEC, Tennessee is tied with Kentucky for second place at 10-3. The Vols are two games behind Auburn, but three games ahead of the double bye. The games with Arkansas will help decide who comes in fourth, but the Hogs also have a murderous finish (Tennessee, at Florida, Kentucky, LSU, at Tennessee).

Meanwhile, Auburn’s finish continues to reflect their easier strength of schedule: at Florida, Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Mississippi State, South Carolina. The Tigers currently have the 13th-rated strength of schedule in the SEC. Even if they stumble once, the Vols would have to win out to tie them for the SEC title. It’s a big ask, though not an impossible one. But given the nature of the remaining schedule, the most readily available piece of satisfaction would be to beat Auburn in Knoxville next Saturday.

So the Vols appear safely headed somewhere between second and fourth in the SEC. What about March?

In the Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s average seed is 3.45 among the 35 entries coming in after the Vols beat Kentucky. We share often the value of getting to at least a three seed in the NCAA Tournament, because it keeps you away from the very best teams in college basketball until at least the Elite Eight. That’s of particular value to a program who’s only been there once.

But in KenPom, the Vols already have wins over the second and third best teams in the nation. After that, the gap between number four (currently Baylor) and the Vols (currently ninth) is narrow: if those two teams met on the neutral floor of the NCAA Tournament, Baylor would only be a two-point favorite.

So sure, maybe the moral of this story is to avoid Gonzaga at all costs; in KenPom they’re still clearly the best team in the nation. But the Zags carry less mystique this year (perhaps ultimately to their benefit) because they’re merely 22-2 instead of 24-0 right now. And under Rick Barnes, the Vols have had relative success against Gonzaga (perhaps ultimately to our downfall if we’re a four seed in their region).

But for the first time since 2019 – and one of the few times in our history – it feels like the Vols have earned the kind of trust where the bracket matters less, and the way we’re playing matters more.

So what’s left to learn about the way Tennessee is playing?

Jonas Aidoo is the biggest question mark here. The 6’11” freshman played two minutes at South Carolina, his first appearance since December 14. He got a dozen minutes as the Vols first tried things without Olivier Nkamhoua in Starkville, turning in a respectable two points, four rebounds, and three fouls. Then he played just four minutes against Vanderbilt, suggesting Rick Barnes may continue to plug and play the bench based on matchups.

But he was a force against Kentucky in 18 minutes. The Vols went 10 deep against the Wildcats, with Aidoo seeing more minutes than Plavsic (13) or Huntley-Hatfield (9).

While Josiah-Jordan James was in foul trouble and played just 19 minutes, Kennedy Chandler and Santiago Vescovi got the 36-minute treatment. John Fulkerson averaged 17 minutes per game from January 18 through February 1, but since Nkamhoua’s injury he’s back up to 24 per game.

We know Tennessee’s closing lineup (Chandler, Zeigler, Vescovi, James, Fulkerson). And Tennessee’s starting lineup has remained unchanged since Nkamhoua’s injury (Chandler, Vescovi, James, Huntley-Hatfield, Plavsic). It’s a tone-setting group that allows both Fulkerson and Zeigler to provide a spark off the bench.

There’s less consistency now with Justin Powell’s minutes: 29 at Vanderbilt on January 18, 22 vs Florida the next week, then anywhere between 7-14 the last six games. Victor Bailey is giving Tennessee two minutes some nights and eight minutes others. Again, is it matchups, hot hands, defensive intensity, etc.?

If the Vols stay healthy, they have enough quality depth for these issues to be more curiosity than liability. But I am interested to see if a more consistent rotation arises in these last five games.

We’ll keep tracking the bracket math and all that good stuff on the way in; maybe Auburn will lose and make things interesting. But these Vols are good – really good – in both theory and practice. Whatever path is before them on Selection Sunday, this team has given us plenty of reasons to believe in them.

One of the best, hardest lessons from the last two years: be in the moment. Sometimes you can’t rush ahead. Sometimes the past isn’t helpful. Just be here.

In our orange-colored world, it was one of those things that was hard to internalize because the 2020 football season spiraled so quickly, then led to a month of uncertainty as to who our coach was going to be. It got hard to be grateful somewhere along the way. It was a little easier a year ago this time with basketball, but still less so overall because that team started 10-1 but finished 8-8.

We got little moments of it last fall, a football team with few expectations turning into something competitive…and something fun. There’s a lot of gratitude in what Josh Heupel and those guys did in starting from the bottom.

But there’s a certain kind of gratitude that happens at the top.

Tennessee lost at Kentucky by 28 points one month ago today. Since then, they found their offense, building back to the rematch on a seven-game conference winning streak. The Vols were good. Tonight was a question of greatness.

And tonight was pretty great indeed.

The past can be helpful here:

Tennessee wins vs Kentucky:

1995-2015: 9 (O'Neill, Green, Buzz, Pearl, Cuonzo, Tyndall)

2016-2022: 9 (Barnes)

— Will Shelton (@wshelton2) February 16, 2022

And the future is still of critical importance in a tournament sport. But you never know what the tournament will bring, what shots will fall, all that good stuff. All you can do is give yourself the best chance possible by moving up the bracket.

The Vols now have wins over Arizona and Kentucky. The only program in the conversation with two better wins is Alabama (Gonzaga and Baylor). So perhaps consider us Alabama, without the baggage.

Tennessee will get north in the next projections in a hurry. They’ll get an extra day’s rest before heading into the mother of all potential letdowns at Fayetteville on Saturday. There is much left out there.

But there’s something special about your team discovering its ever-expanding ceiling against one of its biggest rivals in February. Bruce Pearl found some of this magic with mid-to-late February wins over Florida in 2006 and 2007, then Memphis in 2008. He got the Wall/Cousins Calipari team in 2010.

And Rick Barnes, as noted, has been especially hazardous to the Cats. Got them in Rupp in February of 2018 to solidify the program’s return to the national stage. Got them in Knoxville and in the SEC Tournament in March the following year.

And he got them tonight, in a win we’ll remember for a long time.

Kentucky shot infinity percent in Rupp Arena, and started off much the same way tonight. Tennessee kept pace, and we had a 17-15 game less than seven minutes in.

That’s when Fulky went into the Kentucky bench, and everyone got in their feelings. We’re still there, among many others, at the moment:

#Vols’ Kennedy Chandler: Why is Kentucky’s strength and conditioning coach trying to shove Zakai when Zakai’s trying to helpl Fulky? What’s going on there? That fired us up just like LSU did. You’re not gonna punk us.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) February 16, 2022

He would know: he scored the next eight points. By the time Kentucky made its next bucket, the lead was 15.

When the Vols pushed it to 17 early in the second half, Kentucky hit a 9-0 run. The lead was eight at the under 12. No worries: Jonas Aidoo, of course, would start the next run. Then a Zeigler three. Then Fulky free throws. Rinse, repeat. By the time Kentucky made its next bucket, the lead was 20.

Tennessee’s offense had the same strong shooting from the game in Rupp. Tonight, it was 44.4% from the floor, 47.1% (8-of-17) from the arc, 20-of-23 (87%) from the line. But the biggest difference, by far: turnovers. It’s what leads to Tennessee’s worst basketball, including a season-high 20 of them at Rupp Arena. Tonight: eight. That’s one off the season-low.

Meanwhile, this time the Cats were held to 34.3% from the floor, 31.3% from the arc, and a 13-15 from Oscar Tshiebwe was manageable. That is, in part, because of Aidoo: 18 minutes, five points, seven rebounds, three blocks. If he’s a viable option against these guys, he’s a viable option. The Vols used him in some double-big sets we may not see against other competition. But he also got some run when Josiah-Jordan James was in foul trouble, a potential answer to, “What if that happens in March?”

Tennessee’s greatest strength is its defense, which remains so good that the Vols don’t need much on the other end. But the Vols are also so dangerous because they get what they need from so many different guys. And tonight: 18 for Vescovi, 17 for Chandler, 14 for Fulky, 14 for Zeigler.

We never know what will happen in March. We do know we celebrate wins over Kentucky anytime they come, and we’re on a stretch right now against these guys we’ve never seen before.

But one of the most satisfying things in sports is to go into one of these, “Are we good enough to compete at the highest level,” games against your biggest rival, and leave with the answer being, emphatically, “Yes.”

Appreciate the rivalry. March will come. Be in the moment.

Tonight, the moment is pretty great.

Go Vols.

I do not like this picture.

What’s the Four Factors Forecast? This thing, right here –> Four Factors Forecast. What’s this? It’s the Four Factors Forecast for tonight’s game between Tennessee and Kentucky.

What to Watch

On January 15 in Rupp Arena, Kentucky made what was actually a good shooting game by the Vols look like a giant pimple on prom night. They beat Tennessee primarily with transcendent shooting — making the Vols’ elite defense look like it had gone on strike — but also forced us into an uncharacteristic number of turnovers and topped it off by overachieving on free throw attempts as we were underachieving in the same category.

As good as the ‘Cats looked during that game, it’s tempting to chalk it up to them just having a good night. The reality, though, is that yes, they had a good night, but they are also a consistently great team this season.

The good news is that Tennessee is a really, really good team, too, and may be shedding the inconsistency so slowly that the season-long numbers, particularly offensively, are lagging behind. It’s a team now mostly weaned off the offensive naps they indulged in too often in the early part of the season, and one that sports a solid, well-tested foundation and a ceiling we’re not sure where to put yet. We’ll learn much about that ceiling tonight.

Score Prediction

KemPom projects a one-point loss for the Vols tonight — Kentucky 71, Tennessee 70 — giving the good guys a 48% chance of winning. The line, however, posts the Vols as one-point favorites. So, basically it’s a coin flip, and everybody’s expecting a thriller this evening at Thompson-Boling despite what happened earlier this season at Rupp.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Prior Game:

Goodness, it was hot in Kentucky in the middle of January. It’s like both offenses were sitting comfortably in their leather wingbacks wearing old slippers and puffing on pipes next to the fireplace, blissfully oblivious of the fact that they’d both left their defenses in the back seat of the car with the door open in sub-zero temperatures. HONEY, DON’T FORGET THE CHILDREN THIS TIME!

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Quick, somebody get me a thesaurus, because I’m going to need several different options to convey the phrase “bad news.” Because this is bad news.

Did Kentucky shoot freakishly well against Tennessee in Rupp? Yes, yes it did.

But I know what you want me to say, because I want me to say it, too. So, I’m going to lie to all of us and say that the Wildcats just had a good night on January 15 and it’s nothing to worry about. But I’m a lawyer, and lawyers know better than most not to trust lawyers. Which now that I think about it, presents an intriguing question: Is it possible for skeptical lawyers to lie to themselves? Anecdotal evidence at this very moment tells me no, but I’ll take your feedback in the comment section below.

The truth is, unfortunately, that the Wildcats had an especially good day the last time we saw them and that they are also the second-best shooting team we’ve played all season, consistently. Sigh.

Turnover %

I’ll defer to Pooh here and just say, “Oh, bother.” Both Tennessee and Kentucky average right around 12 turnovers per game, which is pretty good. But the last time out, the Big Blue gave up right at their average of 12, while we went all post-ghost Scrooge and gave up an extra eight. Let’s hope the Vols embrace utterly depraved selfishness for 40 minutes tonight. Regardless, Kentucky is the third-best team we’ve played when it comes to protecting the ball. Somebody turn the Double Z Pestinator Dial to 11 so we can dominate the Tri-State Area. (Pardon all of the Phineas and Ferb references. I’m forever about 15 years behind.)

Offensive Rebound %

I’ve been sitting here staring at this and just shaking my head wondering what to say. It’s been like five minutes now, so I think it’s time to punt and just tell you that I’m shaking my head and leave it at that. Yeah.

Free Throw Rate

Oh, well would you look at that! Good news. Kentucky’s players couldn’t find the free throw line if Calipari duct-taped it directly onto their eyeballs. A slight exaggeration, but I enjoyed it.

Let’s see if the head-to-head opponent impact outlook looks any rosier.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Okay, so brace for them to maybe make our offense look bad. Got it.

Aaaaand brace for them to hit shots and maybe make our defense look bad, too. Okay.

Turnover %

We commit too many turnovers, but they’re not especially adept at forcing them. Theoretically, we should have fewer-than-normal turnovers against them, January 15th notwithstanding.

Kentucky is generally better at protecting the ball than we are, but our defense is all long arms and fast feet and is much, much feistier than Kentucky is used to. Again, January 15th notwithstanding.

Attention: Serious point ahead: If something flips tonight, I’m guessing it will be turnovers. Rather than the ‘Cats giving up their normal 12 and the Vols giving up an abnormally-high 20, I wouldn’t be surprised if those numbers flip with the home court and potentially decide the game.

Offensive Rebounding %

Ferb, I know what we’re going to do today. First, hold our own on our own offensive glass. We have the ability. Second, ummm . . . keep pushing P? Maybe P stands for Plavsic. Or, maybe try to get Tshiebwe two fouls in the first half and fouled out in the second? Hey, the suggestion box is open.

Free Throw Rate

Hey, remember that comment up there about how the ‘Cats couldn’t find the free throw line if it was taped to their eyeballs? I take it back. Not funny anymore. We’re only marginally better, and we’ll be going up against a team that somehow doesn’t foul much. The team to figure out first that the free throw line is taped to their eyeballs might win this game.

Hey. Where’s Perry?

Go Vols.