Win Probability: What Will Tennessee’s Record Be?

Earlier this month we looked at Tennessee’s win probabilities using ESPN’s FPI and SB Nation’s S&P+. Their formulas assign a win probability for each game (somewhere between 7% against Alabama and 99% against Indiana State); add up those percentages and you’ll get their projection for Tennessee’s regular season wins.

Assigning percentages to each game is a more interesting and more reliable exercise to determine how you think the Vols will do this year; again, it’s one thing to say you think the Vols will go 9-3 with these nine wins and those three losses, but it makes more sense to assign a percentage to each opponent.

We don’t have fancy formulas, but here are our staff picks for Tennessee’s regular season using win probability (each number represents the percentage chance we give Tennessee to win):

Will Joel Brad Dylan STAFF AVG
vs Georgia Tech 60% 60% 65% 80% 66%
Indiana State 100% 98% 95% 100% 98%
at Florida 40% 51% 55% 55% 50%
UMass 100% 98% 95% 100% 98%
Georgia 50% 45% 45% 55% 49%
South Carolina 70% 75% 60% 65% 68%
at Alabama 15% 10% 20% 10% 14%
at Kentucky 70% 65% 60% 70% 66%
Southern Miss 95% 90% 90% 100% 94%
at Missouri 75% 70% 70% 75% 73%
LSU 40% 25% 40% 45% 38%
Vanderbilt 75% 70% 65% 90% 75%
WINS 7.90 7.57 7.60 8.45 7.88

Our staff is more or less on board with 8-4; Dylan is particularly more confident in wins over Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, while Joel is particularly less confident against LSU, but the numbers are fairly close everywhere else.

What about you? Find out below (thanks to Joel for the form wizardry) by selecting the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each game to see your season projection, and be sure to submit it for our site average we’ll release next week.

[gravityform id=”6″ title=”true” description=”true”]

 

Gameday Today: Easing expectations on the Vols offensive line

In today’s Vols link roundup, we’re tapping the brakes on expectations for the offensive line, looking objectively at the third consecutive preseason Top 25 for the Vols, and noting that nobody knows what to think about Tennessee this season.

Consider the brakes tapped on the offensive line

We’ve been saying since we published the magazine back in May that the offensive line was one of the main reasons to believe in this team this fall. But fall camp is essentially over now, and you haven’t really heard much, if any, praise about the unit from coaches or reporters. If anything, the news has tended on the negative side, what with the season-ending injuries to Chance Hall and K’Rojhn Calbert and three other key guys reportedly missing time during camp for unspecified minor injuries.

Butch Jones is apparently concerned, having left Monday’s practice this week a wee bit frustrated:

“We have to have the discipline to execute, football is too hard of a game as it is, from the technical aspect, to fundamentals, efforts, techniques, [and] winning your one-on-one matchups,” Jones said, “let alone a team that jumps offsides, a team that doesn’t take care of the football, a team that doesn’t snap the ball well.

“All those things, it comes down to the disciple to execute, having that ability.”

Not only that, but one of the takeaways from this GoVols247 roundtable about what their reporters have learned during preseason camp is that we may have been expecting too much out of the offensive line. When the guys who are not charged with winning but with reporting are beginning to wonder, it might be time to break out the sideways eyes.

I sincerely hope those guys are an absolute strength of the team this year, but I have to admit that I’ve transitioned a bit from belief to hope.

Vols in the Top 25 again

Tennessee is in the preseason AP Poll for the third year in a row, albeit barely at No. 25. That makes three consecutive seasons now that the Vols have started the season in the Top 25, something that hasn’t happened in nine years.

And yeah, when you hear Tennessee officials say that they are one of only 10 teams to have been ranked for three years straight, you chalk it up to PR, but look at the other nine teams:

  • Ohio State (1, 6, 2)
  • Alabama (3,1, 1)
  • Florida State (10, 4, 3)
  • Georgia (9, 18,15
  • Southern California (8, 20, 4)
  • Clemson (12, 2, 5)
  • LSU (14, 5, 13)
  • Oklahoma (19, 3, 7
  • Stanford (21, 8, 14)

That’s pretty good company, and I think it shows that the Vols are at least building some consistency. Now to focus on the Top 10 instead of the Top 25.

Quick Hits

Vols video roundup: Rick Barnes, Christian Coleman, Walt Wells

Head hoops coach Rick Barnes talks about his team’s recent trip to Spain and France and previews the upcoming season.

Christian Coleman also spoke to reporters about his performance at the London 2017 IAAF World Championships:

Offensive line coach Walt Wells knows he has to get his guys ready:

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The Idiot Optimist’s Guide to the 2017 Season

Hey, y’all think about cutting a power T out of them eclipse glasses so it’d be burned onto your retina forever?

…

…uh, yeah, me neither.

Really though, I figure I’ve had enough medical problems anyway. But listen, before you even ask, I’m fine. I know I was in the hospital a long time there, and still nobody believes me. They can call it a coma or an “event” or whatever fancy medical mumbo-jumbo they want. But I’m telling you, boys:  when Jauan caught that ball, the Lord took me straight up to heaven.

Now at the time I thought I had been raptured, so I politely asked the Lord if he could please send me back and maybe hold off on his return at least until we beat Alabama. But the Lord’s ways remain mysterious:  when I woke up in that hospital bed, turns out I hadn’t been raptured and somehow the Vols had lost four games. But I believe God was still looking out for me, because if I’d witnessed us giving up 45 points and 600 yards to Vanderbilt, that would’ve been the end for me anyway. “Shurmur” sounds like the noise I make through clinched teeth so I don’t say the real bad words in front of my wife, and that day I would have Shurmured myself right to death.

So I wake up and discover we’ve hired a new athletic director. Listen, I may not run the Pilot, but I buy my gas there because some percentage of that $2.07 per gallon is going back to the football program. I put money in the offering plate to beat the devil and I pump at Pilot to beat Alabama, and any man that don’t isn’t VFL. So I may not be as high up the ladder as the Haslams, but we’re all in the same food chain and all our voices should be heard.

I heard they used a committee to hire John Currie, who I like because he talksrealfast even if he ain’t Coach Fulmer. But next time there’s a major decision, I’d like to feel that the common man and the common fan have a voice at the table. They put Peyton on that committee, which is a good start, but we need more people we know. People we can trust. People who bleed orange and are tired of feeling anemic for the last ten years. So I’d like to make a few suggestions for additions to the athletic department executive committee:

Jon Gruden – sorry, reflex.

Dolly Parton – Should’ve just hired her to do the job outright last time we had an opening. She might be too busy saving God’s country to help save our athletic department, which I have no doubt she could do. I watched that Coat of Many Christmases so many times I feel like the best way to tell people about Jesus is to tell them about Dolly. Don’t tell me you wouldn’t buy a funnel cake and saltwater taffy at Neyland Stadium. This could be the year for the real thing.

Dave Ramsey – Revenue, son. Would prevent ridiculous buyouts and make sure fans like me can buy a coke and a hot dog at Neyland without dipping into the emergency fund. Frees up everyone else to just worry about football, which hopefully frees up at least one person to think about basketball.

Kevin Nash – Six-time World Champion and VFL. Once punched a head coach, so, you know, maybe he doesn’t chair the committee. Experienced in hostile takeovers. My wife says he’s also in something called Magic Mike, which is apparently not a film about Dave Hart’s predecessor.  

If any of these parties are unable or unwilling, I remain on standby. Come on, Mr. Haslam. I promise to start buying the premium gasoline if you put me in that room.

I get that my credentials may not be so hot, but I’ve been raising funds this off-season by selling these t-shirts (rips open jacket to reveal “THE BEACHES OF DORMADY”; shirt is of such low quality you can see it’s got “GUARANTANIMO BAY” printed on the other side). They’re reversible!

Look, you know the reason we won in ‘98 is because all them boys were so angry about being forgotten when all the ‘97 team went pro right? Same thing this year, son! It don’t matter if it’s QD or JG, he’s basically gonna be Tee Martin all over again. John Kelly is like a combination of Tony Thompson, Travis Stephens, Montario Hardesty, and basically every other back who’s been overlooked but finished strong. I like it when I hear a back runs angry, because that’s typically how I’m watching.

I literally cannot imagine what Jauan Jennings can do to top what he did to Jalen Tabor and the entire state of Georgia. (Author’s note: last year basically was the idiot optimist version of Jauan Jennings. I can’t come up with anything better or less probable than what he already did in real life. I salute you, sir.) Does he have boots made of yellow jackets yet? That dude is my favorite Vol since at least Bill Duff. At least.

Do you know we have Todd Kelly’s kid, Dale Carter’s kid, and Eric Berry’s brother all at the same position?! They call that the “safety”, but ain’t nothing safe about this defense. Except, you know, this year they’re not gonna be safe for the other team. Yeah.

It wouldn’t matter if we’re playing Georgia Tech or the Atlanta By God Falcons in that first game, it’s an automatic W since it ain’t in the Georgia Dome. I’m a little worried about having to face Larry Bird on short rest after that, but I have faith in our coaching staff.

Florida? HA! I’ve spent so many hours watching the replay of the second half it’s essentially my part-time job. They ain’t no good. Then we’ve got UMass, who I swear was still on probation from that Calipari business but whatever.

So I’ve got my list of enemies, and it ain’t nothing new. This year we get to trade a shot at Lane Kiffin for a shot at Ed Orgeron; either way when we win I’m taking my shirt off. Will Muschamp is on that list, who cheated last year by playing a quarterback who was taking driver’s ed while ours was taking global thermonuclear war or spaceship flying or probably both. But no matter what we do, we cannot get a shot at Derek By God Dooley, so we’re gonna have to take it out on Georgia instead, again.

People keep saying we should worry about Kentucky or Missouri, but this ain’t basketball or whatever Missouri is good at. And there’s nothing worse I can say about Vanderbilt than the truth: they’re looking at downsizing to an even smaller stadium and sharing it with soccer. Soccer, boys.

Whether it’s in Tuscaloosa or Atlanta, it still won’t be the same to beat Alabama without Kiffin. But maybe we’ll catch Florida Atlantic in the playoff. Either way, this is the year boys. 15-0, National Champions. And Back-to-Back Champions of Life.

 

The Idiot Optimist’s Guide to:

2016: Dobbs for President

2015: Kool-Aid Light

2014: Do you think it’s possible Butch Jones and Jon Gruden are the same person?

2013: The Kool-Aid tasted like bamboo

2012: I’m pretty sure me and you and six of your friends from the message board could coach this team to a championship.

2011: Last year was Year Zero, and everybody knows zero is not a real number.

2010: If I go down to the Big Orange Caravan and look Derek Dooley in the eye, he’s not going to be hiding behind some sunglasses.

Tennessee Recruiting: Vols Unleash Shock(y) and Awe in 2018 Class

 

Tennessee received some bad news for the present this weekend when projected starting slot receiver Josh Smith went down with a collarbone injury.

The future at the spot looks a little brighter after Monday night.

On Eclipse day, the Vols cast a big orange shadow on the Sunshine State by plucking a speedy Florida commitment in receiver Shocky Jacques-Louis. With limited spots remaining in this nearly-full 2018 recruiting class, UT needed a play-making pass-catcher, and they zeroed in on the former Kentucky pledge.

The Vols continue to prove their presence in the Sunshine State, and though Jacques-Louis didn’t have a committable offer from any of the Big Three in the state, he did have some quality offers. The Fort Myers (Dunbar HS) product had offers from Michigan, Mizzou, Georgia, Louisville, Kentucky, Michigan State, North Carolina, South Florida and others.

Tennessee fans who follow social media figured UT may be getting some good news tonight when, earlier in the day, Jacques-Louis notified Twitter he had some big news coming.

https://twitter.com/ShockyMVP/status/899740617919664129

The Vols have led this race for a while now, and they sealed the deal when SJL called coach Butch Jones and WR coach Kevin Beard to deliver the good news on Monday.

The name of SJL’s game? Speed, speed and more speed. The 6’1″, 175-pound receiver looks like an ideal player to slide into Smith’s spot in the slot in the future and compete for reps with two other Florida products in Tyler Byrd and Latrell Williams. Mississippi freshman Jordan Murphy could see some action at the position in the 2017 season as well.

As for Jacques-Louis, he won’t be on Rocky Top until ’18, and he continues the Tennessee surge in this year’s haul. The Vols currently have the top-ranked class in the conference and the sixth-best group overall nationally per 247Sports.

Jacques-Louis plugs in nicely. He’s got super talent, and he also has that Florida swagger you like to see.

https://twitter.com/ShockyMVP/status/897983279915302913

With Jacques-Louis, the Vols probably are done at the receiver position in this year’s haul. Manchester (Tennessee) stud 4-star Alontae Taylor and Georgia product Jatavious Harris are the other two pass-catchers in the group, and Jacques-Louis rounds out a well-rounded class. Harris has a bit of size and athleticism, Shocky provides the speed and Taylor is an ideal blend of both.

“When I went up there they showed me a family atmosphere that I hadn’t felt before,” Jacques-Louis told Volquest.com’s Austin Price. “I feel that at home, but I’ve never experienced that at a school till I visited Tennessee. No other school had that. My homeboy Shanon (Reid) and Tyler (Byrd) is there. They are in the SEC and who wouldn’t want to play in the SEC.”

Tennessee zeroed in on Jacques-Louis as the guy the Vols wanted to complete the class at the position. Now, it’s going to be interesting to see how UT makes the numbers work from here on out.

Though it appears Tennessee has just two more spots, the Vols definitely want to take offensive tackle Jerome Carvin, cornerback Joe Horn and a pass-rushing defensive end. They’ll do that and make the numbers work. Tennessee coach Butch Jones has been known to part ways with commitments over the past couple of seasons, but there aren’t a lot of guys in the Vols’ class this year who is expendable.

This is a good, quality class full of star potential and guys who fill big-time needs.

Jacques-Louis is one of those. The Vols got a whole lot faster on the perimeter with this commitment, and the South Florida trio of him, Byrd and Williams are going to look good running past defenders in the future if somebody can get them the ball consistently.

This is a guy the Vols singled out, stole from an SEC East rival and are happy to have to close the class.

Gameday Today: the Josh Palmer fan club, and Christmas at SB Nation

Happy eclipse day. We’re starting up the Josh Palmer Fan Club, hoping for a healthy Darrin Kirkland Jr., and opening gifts from SB Nation, all in this morning’s Vols’ link roundup.

You’re about to become a huge fan of Josh Palmer

If you read just one thing today, make it this piece by Mike Griffith on new receiver Josh Palmer. Go read the whole thing.

You’ve heard a somewhat surprising amount of praise from the coaches about the guy already, but man, the dude is MOTIVATED. His dad used to crank up the treadmill and then throw him footballs, medicine balls, and tennis balls. When he realized that his prospects were somewhat limited by his residence in Canada, he left home and enrolled at St. Thomas Aquinas High School in Fort Lauderdale, spending four hours each day in the public transportation system to get back and forth. And after his first season netted three catches for 30 yards, he didn’t give up and go home; he doubled down on cliched positivity and had a breakout season the following year.

When that pays off for that guy, I’m going to be there cheering.

The importance of Darrin Kirkland Jr.

247Sports continues its list of the most important players for the Vols this fall with an extended look at Kirkland, whom they rank at No. 3. Keeping the dude on the field is absolutely crucial. In our post ranking the Vols’ defensive players who have to stay healthy, Kirkland tied for first with Cortez McDowell.

And this information from 247 drives the point home:

“The three games for which [Kirkland] was the healthiest count as Tennessee’s best defensive performances of 2016.”

Those three games were Appalachian State, Virginia Tech, and Nebraska, which may not sound like it should persuade you of the argument, but VT and App State were statistically the fourth- and fifth-best offenses Tennessee played last year. Alabama, Texas A&M, and Missouri were 1-3.

Kirkland has to stay healthy. The team needs him.

It’s like Christmas, and SB Nation is Santa for the day

The front page of most national outlets is mostly junk these days, but opening up the SB Nation front page this morning was like walking downstairs on Christmas morning and finding about five different presents you wanted to spend the entire day with. Here are the links:

That last link really makes you want to get in the car right now and drive to see the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. And we’ll be seeing it a lot, as they not only host the Vols-Yellow Jackets on opening weekend, they also have the Alabama-Florida State game, the SEC Championship, the Peach Bowl, and the National Championship. Oh, and they’ll have the 2019 Super Bowl and the 2020 Final Four as well. All that, and $2 hot dogs.

Quick hits

  • As we posted late last night, wide receiver Josh Smith apparently injured his collarbone in practice yesterday. Jimmy Hyams tweets that he’ll be out 4-8 weeks. That’s at least through Florida on September 16 and probably through South Carolina on October 14. Speedy recovery, Josh.
  • Everybody’s pretty hush-hush on any real differences between the offense last year under Mike DeBord and this year under Larry Scott. But offensive lineman Brett Kendrick did contrast DeBord being “a little more laid-back” with Scott being “in our face”, so there’s that.
  • Speaking of Scott, he has to win the award for fewest words ever spoken by a new offensive coordinator. Think about it. How much have you heard him say since he got the job? Well, one way to get him talking is to ask him about anonymous sources calling his players soft. This article from 247 is basically 70% an extended quote from Scott on the subject. The gist of the whole thing is this: Yeah, well, you know, that’s just, like, your opinion, man, and anyway, aren’t we all trying to become tougher?
  • Is Tennessee Punter U? VFL punters currently in the NFL include Britton Colquitt, Dustin Colquitt, Matt Darr, and Michael Palardy. And Trevor Daniel is likely to join them next season.
  • It’s looking like the starting lineup for the offensive line is about to be settled. Drew Richmond at left tackle, Brett Kendrick at right tackle, and Trey Smith at right guard. What’s still up in the air at this point is left guard and center. Jashon Robertson will take one of those spots, and the other is a competition between Coleman Thomas, Jack Jones, and Venzell Boulware.
  • This piece from SEC Country makes it sound like Georgia Tech has some sort of hangup about people thinking their offense is “just about the triple option.” It reminds me of someone trying to convince me that vanilla ice cream is awesome. It’s not just vanilla, dude. It’s vanilla and ice and sugar. And cream!
  • Gridiron Now lists their Top 20 SEC games of the 2017 season, and Tennessee has four of the Top 15. High five to GN, too, for not making this a 20-click slideshow, which I never would have survived.
  • This quote from Tennessee linebackers coach Tommy Thigpen about Butch Jones made me smile: “Butch to me is like McDonald’s,” Thigpen said. “He doesn’t change. That foundation is set, and it’s what makes him him, the fact that he holds everyone accountable. From coaches to players to trainers, there is not much that he doesn’t notice. If there is something on the wall, a piece of paper on the floor, a guy off the back side not hustling, he notices. That’s who he is: He’s going to hold everyone to the highest standards. So when you say, ‘How has he changed?’ he hasn’t changed.”

VFLs

Alvin Kamara ran for a 50-yard touchdown yesterday on his very first carry:

Justin Hunter, who is now a Pittsburgh Steeler, also scored a TD yesterday:

https://twitter.com/Steel_Curtain4/status/899402915961610240

News was not so good for Derek Barnett, who’s reportedly going to miss some practice time due to an unspecified lower body injury. Nor for Jason Croom, who was waived by the Buffalo Bills after his own injury.

Speaking of Vols in the NFL, Vince Ferrara has compiled a list of them, along with their current pecking order on the team.

Vols playing Georgia Tech for one reason: Recruiting

The Vols are two weeks out from the season opener, a nationally televised contest against Georgia Tech in the brand new Mercedes Benz Dome in Atlanta.  And while having the national attention that comes with the game, especially as the only game on Labor Day evening, is attractive, many including myself have questioned the idea of playing a team like Tech at all.  From their unique triple option offense, preparation for which yields no down-the-road benefits, to their dangerous blocking schemes that put your defensive line at risk of injury, there are a lot of downsides to playing the Yellow Jackets.  So why play this game at all?

Three very important reasons: 1. Recruiting. 2. Recruiting.  3. Recruiting.

The state of Georgia is consistently one of the best in the country when it comes to producing high level talent, and for years the Vols have had a lot of success recruiting the Peach State.  Team 121 has fourteen scholarship players from the Peach State on the roster, and the Class of 2018 already boasts 5 commitments from Georgians, each of whom are big time prospects.

As part of the neutral site game, the Vols will be able to provide tickets (though not have contact with) to around 100 prospects and their families.  For the current class, it’s a chance to show your current committed players and their families what their future “home” looks like and to further solidify the positive feelings that led to those commitments.  With 2018 GA prospects the Vols are still recruiting, it’s a chance for Tennessee to show off in an unofficial capacity and get an extra “visit” from those players and then hopefully parlay that into at least one unofficial visit for a game in Neyland.  For prospects in the classes of 2019 and beyond, it’s a chance for Butch and Co. to kick off relationships with players and show them and their families what Tennessee Football is all about.

Below are the players I think the Vols will be targeting to get to The Dome:

Current 2018 commitments from Georgia

  • RB Anthony Grant (confirmed attendee)
  • RB LJ Dixon
  • WR Jatavious Harris
  • DL Jamarcus Chatman
  • S Trey Dean

2018 Uncommitted* Prospects

  • CB Jaycee Horn
  • DE Caleb Johnson
  • DE Andrew Johnson
  • DE Caleb Kelly
  • DE Richard Jibunor
  • DE Adam Anderson (a long shot, but he’s been to Knoxville this summer and is best friends with Chatman)

*I imagine the Vols will try to get guys committed elsewhere to come, like Azeez Ojulari (UGA), Caleb Tannor (UGA), and Tobe Umerah (Stanford).  Can’t hurt…

Horn and Jibunor are two players in particular who Tennessee is fighting very hard for, both of whom the Vols are in two-team races for, and both of whom are targeting September decisions.  If they can get those two to come for this game and then get at least an unofficial visit for a game in Neyland (Indiana State or UGA are the two home games in September) that would go a very long way.

Class of 2019

The Georgia class of 2019 is widely considered to be one of the best in the state in recent memory, and the Vols have already made inroads with a lot of top prospects.  In particular, elite players the Vols would love to see in the Dome are RB Derrian Brown (Anthony Grant’s teammate), WR Ramel Keyton, and S Joseph Charleston (the younger brother of current Tennessee baseball player Jay Charleston).  All of these prospects have been to Knoxville at least once and have a great deal of interest in Tennessee.

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Tennessee do major outreach with some of the top local high school programs, even if the Vols aren’t currently in the running for their respective top players, as a way to engender goodwill with those coaches and administrators.  That’s another way to use this game as a long-term building block for recruiting in this state, and as we know Butch Jones never misses a chance to get a leg up in recruiting.

Bottom line: This is a huge opportunity to get your program in front of Atlanta-area prospects in a very unique way.  I expect there to be a Vol Walk like we saw last year in Bristol, to have about 75% of the stadium in Big Orange, and for the Vols to win convincingly against Tech.  It should be a great atmosphere and should pay dividends for the Vols with recruits in the current class as well as 2019 and beyond.  That’s why you play the game, now the Vols have to execute on and off the field.  I’m confident they will.

 

Report: Vols receiver Josh Smith suffers collarbone injury

Mike Griffith is reporting that Tennessee receiver Josh Smith suffered a collarbone injury in Sunday’s practice and will undergo more tests Monday.

Griffith cites an unnamed souorce in reporting this news, and there are few details. It looks like we’ll have to wait until tomorrow to get confirmation and additional details about how severe the injury might be and how long he might be out.
Smith, who has had more than his share of injury troubles in the past, was competing for the starting gig at slot receiver, and it now looks like sophore Tyler Byrd is the favorite to start at that spot in two weeks against Georgia Tech.

Vols video roundup: Vols commit Cade Mays will make you LOL

This video of Vols’ 5-star offensive lineman commit for the Class of 2018 Cade Mays will make you laugh out loud. The hilarity begins around the :52 mark.

Jordan Bone’s Greatest Hits . . . so far

This is long, and so I haven’t watched the whole thing, but it’s 30 minutes of the Vols, so you know:

Not embeddable, but here’s GoVols247’s video of Butch Jones’ post-practice comments from yesterday evening.

Gameday Today: Is Georgia Tech worth it, Shawn Shamburger, and Eeyore tails all around

In today’s Vols link roundup, we wonder whether playing Georgia Tech is a good idea, celebrate with Shawn Shamburger, and catch up with Mike Gundy, who’s reportedly no longer 40.

Should we be playing Georgia Tech at all?

This should not be news to anyone except those who are just now emerging from their football hibernation, but the Vols opening opponent this year is Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets play that nasty cut-blocking, triple-option, hide-the-football style of offense that flummoxes opponents and is hard on the lower extremities of prized defensive linemen. Sure, history shows that having extra time to prepare makes it easier, and Dave Hart did us a favor by insisting that the Vols only play the Yellow Jackets in a season-opener, but there are perils afoot.

Joe Rexrode of USA Today/KNS says that maybe we shouldn’t be playing the game anyway. A few compelling quotes:

“. . . the question of whether this game was worth it will be asked 12 days later if the Vols don’t win at Florida. By necessity, Georgia Tech has taken up a chunk of the preseason time that would have been spent on global defensive construction.

“It’s a game you don’t play if you don’t have to play it. By the time camp ends and the Vols get to the start of their first game week on Aug. 28, Shoop said four days will have been spent solely on Georgia Tech. He’s sprinkling in looks from other teams on the schedule as well, as he always does, but the flexbone demands devotion.

“It is misdirection and cut blocks and deception and cut blocks and the occasional play-action bomb, followed by a few more cut blocks.

“The cut block is a big element, and we’ve worked a lot on that,” said Shoop, who can’t relish the idea of blockers diving at his guys’ knees all night, after losing so many of his key guys to injury in 2016.”

Um, yeah. What about all that? Folks will not only be embracing hindsight if the Vols don’t beat Florida, they’ll be asking questions immediately if we lose a d-tackle in the opener. And just how much time does it really take away from preparation for the SEC games that matter more?

I’m guessing, though, that four days in the grand scheme of things isn’t an over-investment in GT prep. It’s not that much more than a regular game-week prep, so four days doesn’t sound like “too much.” Plus, you can probably make up some ground the following week by transitioning immediately to Florida and assuming you’re already ready enough for Indiana State. If you can’t beat the Sycamores with a vanilla Florida game plan, you have bigger problems.

So, as long as nobody gets hurt, it’s probably fine.

Nobody get hurt, okay?

Shawn Shamburger

Flying side bump to freshman cornerback Shawn Shamburger, who had his black helmet stripe removed Wednesday evening. According to Micah Abernathy, he and fellow freshman Cheyenne Labruzza are both “always trying to get ahead of the older guys, so they’ll both be good.”

And there’s also this bit of news that has made me giddy this morning:

“In terms of Shawn Shamburger, he’s an individual who’s really stepped up in the last few practices,” Jones said. “He’s really made his presence known at the corner position. The other night, I really liked the way he filled in run support. We challenged him with some deep balls, and he was able to play the ball in the air and find the blind spot, which we talk about, with turning your head in coverage.“

Emphasis mine, because oh, how we longed for a DB to turn around last fall.

Quick Hits