Game-by-Game SEC East win scenarios: Vols really need to beat both Florida and Georgia

Last week some time, the SEC Network rolled out a video series that showed its analysts making game-by-game predictions for the season. In the Tennessee edition of that series, Matt Stinchcomb had the Vols going 6-6, losing to cross-divisional opponents Alabama and LSU, SEC East rivals Florida and Georgia, and Kentucky and Missouri to boot.

It’s an interesting exercise and an effective way to pass the time during the offseason, but it’s more helpful to do the same thing for every team in the SEC East to see who is most likely to head to Atlanta to represent the division.

Here’s my version of that exercise:

Tennessee has no margin for error

If the Vols want to control their own destiny, they basically just need to beat both Florida and Georgia (and then not lose other games they shouldn’t). If you assume Tennessee loses to both Alabama and LSU in the West, then you’re already at 6-2, not even accounting for the Florida and Georgia games.

Looking at Georgia’s schedule, the only game you really feel comfortable putting in the loss category is the Auburn game. For the 6-2 Vols to catch the Bulldogs, somebody needs to give them a second SEC loss and Tennessee needs to not lose any additional SEC games. So, Georgia needs to lose to Auburn and Tennessee for the Vols to get ahead of them. They’re really not likely to lose another SEC game unless it’s to Florida. More on the implications of that in a minute.

That also means, of course, that Tennessee not only has to beat Georgia, it has to beat Florida, too. If the Vols fall to 5-3, they’re likely behind Georgia at a likely 6-2 despite beating them head-to-head. At that point, the only real candidate to give Georgia its third loss is Florida. But if the Gators beat both Tennessee and Georgia, then they’re likely at 7-1 and the Vols getting ahead of Georgia doesn’t do them any good.

Bottom line, the Vols need to beat both Florida and Georgia to make it to the SEC Championship.

But wait. What about LSU?

The above scenarios all assume that the Vols lose to the LSU Tigers on November 18, but that may not actually be as much of a given as it seems. Sure, the preseason statistics all give a not insignificant edge to the Tigers, but LSU is a lot like Tennessee this year in that nobody really knows what to make of them. They could be every bit as good as their talent suggests they should be. Or, they could fail to live up to expectations or even totally self-destruct by November.

So yeah, if you assume the Tigers are as good as they should be, then Tennessee essentially starts the season with two losses (Alabama and LSU) while Florida and Georgia each start with only one (LSU and Auburn, respectively). In that scenario, the Vols are at a disadvantage that really can only be overcome by beating both Florida and Georgia and not losing any other games.

But, if you instead assume that LSU is a 50/50 game, then the Vols’ disadvantage in the SEC East is somewhat mitigated. In that case, the Vols start the season with one loss (Alabama) and three 50/50 games (LSU, Florida, and Georgia). Georgia also starts with one loss (Auburn), but has only two 50/50 games (Tennessee and Florida), and Florida starts with three 50/50 games (LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia), but zero losses. Tennessee is still at a disadvantage if LSU is merely good instead of great, but the Vols would be in somewhat better shape than under the alternative.

If you can only get one, get Georgia

Even if the Vols manage to win against LSU, the Vols’ hopes are still tied to what happens with the Gators and the Bulldogs, and Georgia appears to matter most.

If Tennessee beats Florida but loses to Georgia, the Vols would likely be 6-2 and ahead of the Gators, who would likely be 5-3. But the Bulldogs would likely be 7-1 and ahead of everybody.

On the other hand, if Tennessee beats Georgia but loses to Florida, all three teams would likely be 6-2, and we’d have rock-paper-scissors with each team having only one head-to-head over another. Florida and Georgia would likely have late losses to Florida State and Auburn, while Tennessee would have a late win over LSU, and perhaps the division tiebreakers that rely on rankings would work in the Vols’ favor.

So if you have to pick one game to win between Florida and Georgia, pick Georgia.

Win ’em all

There are, of course, countless scenarios heading into the season, and if the Vols win every game, nothing else matters. But with a cross-divisional schedule that (inappropriately, in my view) counts toward divisional standings and is less favorable than those of its SEC East rivals, it appears to make the head-to-head matchups with SEC East Rivals all-or-nothing propositions for the Vols.

If you can get both, get both.

If you can only get one, get Georgia.

And if you can’t get either, hope for chaos and magic against LSU late in the season.

 

At defensive end, should the Vols go for plug and play instead of upside?

The need for one more defensive end in this class, and how the Vols address that need, is something that’s been discussed in this space quite a bit.  And while I’ve made the case for a guy with unlimited upside but who is a ways from contributing, there’s a case to be made at the opposite end of the spectrum.  If Tennessee were to go the route of someone who could contribute right away, the guy I would focus on is someone who so far has been little discussed: JUCO product Azur Kamara.

Who is Azur Kamara?

Besides having a last name that will always make Tennessee fans smile, Kamara is a very intriguing prospect in his own right.  He’s a big kid (6’6, 240) with speed who has been productive in each of his stops so far.  In high school he set the Arizona high school record with 25 sacks his senior season, but grades forced him to go the JUCO route.  And last season at Arizona Western CC, he had eight sacks.

He’s also an early enrollee, which means he’s not only going to start the 2018 season two years out of high school, he’ll also have a spring practice under his belt to adjust to the college game and learn the playbook.  He’d be a guy you’d expect to immediately compete for a starting job and at worst be part of the regular rotation.

Where does Kamara’s recruitment stand?

Kamara was initially looking to make a summer decision, but as his recruitment has heated up those plans have changed a bit.  He’s already taken official visits to Louisville and Iowa State, and he had plans to visit Utah in September and make a decision after that.  However, he received offers from Florida State, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss to go along with the Tennessee offer that came in the spring, and all of this attention has caused him to slow things down.  All of a sudden this has the makings of a much more high profile recruitment.

As of now FSU, OSU, and the Vols are in line for the remaining three official visits, with the trip to Knoxville, though not yet set, likely to occur in September or October.

The Vols do have a link to Arizona Western, as current defensive GA Jon Shalala was the OL coach for 11 months before coming to Knoxville.  And of course current Vols starting defensive end Jonathan Kongbo came from Arizona Western as well, so there are a handful of ties.  Kongbo’s status as a starter probably is a great selling point here, and if he were to jump out of the gates strongly that couldn’t hurt, either.  However, it should be noted that Louisville just received commitments from a couple of his AWCC teammates, so they will likely be helping the Cardinals in this recruitment.

Which Direction Do the Vols Go?

Ultimately the Vols will have to decide which direction they want to take with the last defensive end spot.  And that decision is likely to come down to a lot of factors – as The Dude would say, lotta ins, lotta outs here:

  1. How do the current DEs on the roster perform, especially early in the season? For example, does Jonathan Kongbo start the season playing like the former 5-star and #1 JUCO prospect he is, setting himself up for a possible early jump to the NFL?  Because in that case the staff has a different 2018 roster to think about.  Conversely, do freshmen like Deandre Johnson or Matthew Butler look like future SEC stars, in which case the need for another instant impact DE is a lot less pressing?  In a worst case scenario, do none of the DEs play well, such that the staff feels like they need more immediate help in 2018?
  2. Another factor is the status of Dorian Gerald, a current jewel of the class and an expected immediate contributor in 2018 as a JUCO early enrollee. While Gerald maintains he is 100% committed to the Vols, not only are other schools still after him, he’s also actually in the process of setting up official visits to places like Louisville (less of a threat) and South Carolina (the home-state school).  The Vols definitely have to have a contingency plan were he to bolt.
  3. Finally, depending on how the season goes, we may see the defensive end board expand to include no-brainer studs that aren’t currently strongly considering the Vols. Someone like Adam Anderson, who has been to campus and is being recruited hard by good friend and UT commit Jamarcus Chatman, or a guy like UGA commitment Azeez Ojulari could reignite their interest in the Vols, especially if UGA struggles on the field again in Year 2 for Kirby Smart.

As we’ve discussed, I like prospects like Caleb Kelly, Caleb Johnson, and Andrew Johnson just fine.  They seem like likely SEC contributors but not likely NFL prospects – kind of like Corey Vereen – and there is nothing wrong with that.  But in my opinion, the DE roster has enough low-ceiling/high floor players.  To me, if they indeed are going to add another DE in this class, the staff should be targeting upside now that they’ll have fixed the numbers (and talent issue) at the position.

There is obviously the issue of how interested Kamara and any of the other remaining DEs on the board actually are in Tennessee.  With Kamara, if he’s got a committable offer from a place like FSU it’s not like UT can simply call him up and land him.  They would need to recruit him very hard.

Interestingly, Oladele (who is also an early enrollee) is scheduled to make his official visit for the UGA game in late September, which could coincide with Kamara’s official visit.  That should mean that the staff has a pretty good idea of what they think the 2018 DE roster is going to look like, both in terms of numbers and in terms of talent.  It also means that they might have to make a decision on how they want to handle the spot if either/both of Oladele and Kamara want to commit.

The best case scenario is that the Vols are 4-0 when the Dawgs come to Knoxville, the DEs have played well and shown promise for the future, and that the on-field success has created increased interest in some of the elite DEs mentioned above.  While it can be difficult, it’s always good to have options, and the more you win the more options you have.  How the staff handles those possible options at the DE position in particular will be fascinating to watch.

 

 

Report: Darrin Kirkland Jr. out indefinitely with a knee injury

 

GoVols247 is reporting, based on multiple sources, that Tennessee middle linebacker Darrin Kirkland Jr. suffered a knee injury during practice on Friday. SEC Country cites a source in saying further that the injury is a torn meniscus, although the chatter is that nobody will know until further tests can be done. Officials are mum on the matter.

This is a huge blow to the team and could border on catastrophic depending on how long Kirkland will be out. We put Kirkland first on our list of Vols defensive players who had to remain healthy earlier this month, along with Cortez McDowell, because he was one the team’s two best linebackers on a defense that desperately needed improved performance from the position. The unit and the defensive will miss Kirkland’s leadership, talent, and intelligence, and although there are still some other good guys available, the linebacking corps did not do so well last season when Kirkland wasn’t on the field and at full speed.

While Kirkland is out, expect Colton Jumper to fill in, with sophomore Daniel Bituli and freshman Will Ignont also on standby, although Bituli has had his own injury issues recently. It looks like the best case scenario right now is for news that Kirkland’s injury is not as bad as feared and that he can somehow return at full strength against Florida, meaning the impact of the injury would make the team more vulnerable to Georgia Tech, but probably nothing more.

If he is instead out for Florida and beyond, it could spell trouble and cause flashbacks for players, coaches, and fans, as the crumbling of the defense last year also seemed to begin at the linebacker position. But we’ll just have to wait and see.

Vols video roundup: “Outlaw the cut block!”

“Outlaw the cut block, that’s No. 1!”

Reece Davis says that we Vols just need to stay the course:


10 days, y’all:

Coach Jones after yesterday’s practice, emphasizing the D in DAT:

Ethan Wolf, who is apparently solar-powered, and Cortez McDowell, also after practice yesterday:

Aaaaand Jason Robertson, with a certain seriousness and a certain focus:

Some practice highlights, including defensive linemen practicing technique verses cut blocks:

Gameday Today: Brace for extra doses of Maxim 1

In today’s Vols link roundup, we’re bracing for an extra dose of Maxim 1 the next 10 days, finding more hope in the secondary, and more.

Turning attention to Georgia Tech

With the Yellow Jackets playing that wicked flexbone triple option thing that focuses most of its energy on the running game, and with the Vols beginning to transition to game-week prep, Butch Jones is harping on the D in DAT stuff:

“Football is very difficult and we have to be a team that doesn’t beat itself and it all starts with the small details and communication when you’re out there,” Jones said. “We have to continue to demand it because we’re building habits. You’re going to rely on your training when we get to Monday night playing against a very talented Georgia Tech football team. We have to continue to demand, our older players need to demand from the younger players and vice versa. They’ve done that, but there’s a whole level of mental intensity and mental effort that comes into preparing for game week as well.”

That all appears to be a non-concise way of yelling, “MAXIM 1, GUYS!” to make sure your team isn’t the one that makes the most mistakes. Any missed opportunity against a team that eats clock like Joey Chestnut eats hot dogs is compounded by the decreased ability to make up for it, so expect Jones to emphasize mistake-free football at every opportunity for the next 10 days.

And that’s not the only detail on which Jones is harping, either. He’s also focused on making sure his players protect their assets:

“Again, them being accountable to each other for getting the sleep, the hydration, the nutrition and then coming to progress after a long day of classes.”

As much as I want to make a joke about everyone needing sleep, water, and food, I won’t. I’m sure Jones means he wants them to sleep enough, keep hydrated enough, and eat the right things instead of the wrong things, and I’m glad he’s focused on it.

Meanwhile, the defense is spending a great deal of time preparing to defeat cut blocks. Man, I’ll be glad when that game is out of the way.

Secondary getting stronger

There’s been some good news in the secondary for the Vols. Even though transfer Shaq Wiggins remains out with an injury, the coaches are optimistic that he’ll be back before the first game. Add to that that Emmanuel Moseley, who wore a limited-contact green jersey all of preseason camp, is finally full-go. And add to both of those things that freshman Shawn Shamburger continues to draw praise from the coaching staff, so much so that he’s at least in the two-deep and possibly even pushing the presumed starters.

It’s probably understating it to say that the secondary had some issues last fall, so if the unit actually improves like it sounds like it is, it could make a dramatic difference.

Quick hits

https://twitter.com/vol_hoops/status/900797468245282817

Gameday on Rocky Top Picks Contest

Our 2017 picks contest is now open and free to play at Fun Office Pools. If you played before at our old site, you know the rules:  we pick 20 games straight up every week using confidence points. You pick the winners and assign 20 points to the outcome you’re most confident in, 1 point to the outcome you’re least confident in, etc. This year there will be weekly prizes as well as something for the overall season winner.

Click here to join this year’s league. If you’ve played with us before, you should have received an email invite as well.

With apologies to the appetizer games on Saturday, here’s our full slate for week one:

Thursday, August 31

  • Indiana at #2 Ohio State – 8:00 PM – ESPN

Friday, September 1

  • Navy at Florida Atlantic – 8:00 PM – ESPNU
  • Colorado vs Colorado State (Denver, CO) – 8:00 PM – PAC 12 Network
  • Utah State at #9 Wisconsin – 9:00 PM – ESPN

Saturday, September 2

  • Wyoming at Iowa – 12:00 PM – Big Ten Network
  • California at North Carolina – 12:00 PM – ACC Network
  • NC State vs South Carolina (Charlotte, NC) – 3:00 PM – ESPN
  • #11 Michigan vs #17 Florida (Arlington, TX) – 3:30 PM – ABC
  • Temple at Notre Dame – 3:30 PM – NBC
  • Troy at Boise State – 3:45 PM – ESPNU
  • Kentucky at Southern Miss – 4:00 PM – CBS Sports Network
  • Appalachian State at #15 Georgia – 6:15 PM – ESPN
  • #16 Louisville vs Purdue (Indianapolis, IN) – 7:30 PM – FOX
  • South Alabama at Ole Miss – 7:30 PM – ESPNU
  • #1 Alabama vs #3 Florida State (Atlanta, GA) – 8:00 PM – ABC
  • Vanderbilt at MTSU – 8:00 PM – CBS Sports Network
  • #13 LSU vs BYU (Houston, TX) – 9:30 PM – ESPN

Sunday, September 3

  • #21 Virginia Tech vs #22 West Virginia (Landover, MD) – 7:30 PM – ABC
  • Texas A&M at UCLA – 7:30 PM – FOX

Monday, September 4

  • #25 Tennessee vs Georgia Tech (Atlanta, GA) – 8:00 PM – ESPN

Tennessee Recruiting: Another Major Domino Falls to the Vols in Jaycee Horn

No matter how well this recruiting class is shaping up for Tennessee, the Volunteers needed another potential impact cornerback in the 2018 haul.

Even though the early returns on Cheyenne Labruzza, Shawn Shambuger and Terrell Bailey are good from the first few weeks of camp, you can never have too much depth in the secondary. You also need to factor in that the Vols are losing Justin Martin, Emmanuel Moseley and Shaq Wiggins after this season.

So, that’s what makes the Thursday pickup of Jaycee Horn all the more important.

https://twitter.com/jayceehorn_10/status/900860586896084993

Sure, Horn is a stud in his own rights. He chose the Vols this afternoon on the SEC Network, deciding he wants to play in Knoxville over offers from Alabama and South Carolina. This commitment (if it sticks) is the fruit of months of heavy recruiting after identifying Horn as the top target at cornerback on the board. Even after he originally eliminated UT from consideration, choosing instead to focus on Alabama and South Carolina, the Vols kept recruiting him.

As a matter of fact, they turned up the pressure.

Almost immediately, Horn showed renewed interest in UT, and the courtship produced a commitment. The 6’0″, 175-pound 4-star cornerback from the Atlanta suburb of Alpharetta, Georgia, continues Tennessee’s surge in Georgia, where it normally goes to get a lot of its secondary. Horn joins 4-star safety Trey Dean as Vols defensive backs from Georgia in the 2018 class.

Consider this: Tennessee dipped into the Peach State to secure a commitment from Shamburger, and the year before that, UT plucked Nigel Warrior and Baylen Buchanan from the Atlanta area. Micah Abernathy highlighted the Georgia class the year before, and then-safety Cortez McDowell and Evan Berry were in the 2014 class. Cameron Sutton and Riyahd Jones got the Butch Jones era started off by committing to him in that half-class of ’13.

So, getting defensive backs from Georgia isn’t a new thing on Rocky Top.

The Vols also continued their trend of getting players with NFL bloodlines.

Horn is the son of former New Orleans Saints All-Pro receiver Joe Horn, and he joins Nigel Warrior (father Dale Carter), Kahlil McKenzie (father Reggie and uncle Raleigh), Baylen Buchanan (father Ray), Brandon Johnson (uncle Chad “Ocho Cinco” Johnson), Dillon Bates (father Bill), Todd Kelly Jr. (father Todd), Evan and Elliot Berry (brother Eric) and Kivon Bennett (father Cornelius “Biscuit” Bennett) as UT players who are pro legacies.

Horn is the centerpiece of a defensive backs class that already featured hard-hitting future nickelback Tanner Ingle, cornerback Brandon Cross, in-state stud safety Brendon Harris and Under-Armour All-American safety Dean.

The Vols added to their top-ranked class in the SEC, and it will be interesting to see how numbers work out. With the additions of Horn, receiver Shocky Jacques-Louis and punter Paxton Brooks this week, the Vols seemingly have only a couple of spots left (if that many).

Tennessee covets an offensive lineman (West Tennessee tackle Jerome Carvin) and a pass-rushing defensive end (such as many Richard Jibunor) with those final spots. Of course, you continue recruiting some elite prospects, and if they decide they want to join the fray, you’ve got to make some difficult decisions.

But there is very little wiggle room in this class. The Vols have a lot of quality players who meet big needs and who are potential big stars. When all is said and done, guys like Horn may make this Jones’ most complete class yet.

Vols video roundup: Team 120 is dead, and Chick-fil-A is all hyped up about it

 

On the off chance that maybe you’re still not quite ready for the Vols to kickoff the 2017 season, maybe the Chick-fil-A Kickoff hype video will help:

If that still didn’t get you ready, here’s what you do: (1) call a friend, preferably a strong one; (2) ask him to come over and punch you in the nose until your attitude improves. You’re welcome.

Wait, what?

Team 120 is dead? Yikes, that’s a bit dramatic, isn’t it? Must have been that all those heart attacks John Kelly’s talking about.

Hoops workin’

Meanwhile, the basketball team is getting after it and apparently wearing weighted vests 24/7:

Gameday Today: Preseason All-SEC, and pinning our hopes on Charlton Warren

In today’s link roundup, we take a closer look at the four Vols on the preseason Coaches All-SEC Team, pin our hopes on Charlton Warren, hope that Josh Smith is back for Florida, and more.

Vols on the preseason Coaches All-SEC Team

Four Tennessee players were named to the preseason Coaches All-SEC Team yesterday. Kick returner Evan Berry made second team, and offensive lineman Jashon Robertson, wide receiver Jajuan Jennings, and punter Trevor Daniel all made third team. Of course, a preseason All-SEC team is really not much more than a rehash of last year’s All-SEC team for the players who are still around, but it’s still nice to see your guys’ names on the list. What matters more, though, is who’s on that list at the end of the season.

Berry, by the way, shares the credit for his success returning kicks with his blockers:

“If you go back and look at the film, you really will see that I’m just running. But Micah Abernathy, my off-returner, and Tyler Byrd — they both give key blocks, as well as the front line.”

Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have a guy who can fly with the ball in his hands, either.

And somehow, Trevor Daniel’s story is still under-stated. Heading into his senior year, he is already surrounded on all sides by Colquitts in the Tennessee record books. If he does again this season what he’s been doing the past couple of seasons, the former walk-on will finish his career ahead of all of them.

Another reason to believe the defense will improve this season

Public Service Announcement: New defensive backs coach Charlton Warren played a major role in the nation’s best defensive turnaround in 2015 for the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Heels defense allowed 14.5 fewer points that season than they had the year before, and his secondary was the most improved in the nation in pass efficiency and yards-per-pass attempt. Oh, and they led the ACC in interceptions, turnovers gained, and passes defended.

Here’s to hoping he can do something similar for the Vols this fall.

Quick hits