We hope you’re heading up/down/over to Neyland Stadium for the Vols’ home opener this afternoon, but there’s a fair amount of other games to watch today as well. Hang out with us here while you’re watching.

Note that the several games have been canceled, postponed, and/or moved due to Hurricane Irma, including the Florida game against Northern Colorado that was supposed to kick at noon, so be wary of any college football TV schedule posts live out there on the internet.

There will be a separate game thread for the Vols, which will go live later.

By now, you know the drill. If you don’t, check last week’s column for details. The long and short of it is we pick five keys for the Vols to beat this week’s opponent (which isn’t going to be that difficult, considering this week’s opponent is the Fightin’ Larry Birds of Indiana State) and then we give you five locks to place money on if gambling were legal.

Last week, I went 2-3, but that was a joke. In actuality, I’d have gone 4-1 because two of the games I flat-out LOVED were on Thursday night. Even though I wrote the column before then, it wouldn’t have done you guys any good, so I didn’t include them.

All in all, I went 19-6 ATS last week. It just so happened half of those losses were games I really, really liked, which is the reason why you shouldn’t gamble, kids.

I fell into the idiot pit of watching Week Zero and making too much out of a good offense playing a bad team, and that’s why I picked Colorado State to cover against rival Colorado. I thought the Buffaloes would have a hard time replacing all that defensive talent and coordinator Jim Leavitt, but they didn’t. Also, quarterback Steven Montez looked pretty darn good in a 17-3 win. So, yeah, that one was bad.

I like Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen a ton, but the Cowboys threw up a duck fart against Iowa, so we’re going to pretend those two games didn’t happen. Bad, bad losses. As for the Vols, I was worried about that game throughout the offseason, but I’m not complaining one bit. That one-point lead didn’t win me any of your hearts picking games, but I’m just happy UT is 1-0.

Michigan and LSU were free money.

With that, it’s onto Tennessee’s keys this week. Since it would be a shocker of all shockers for the Vols to lose to the Sycamores, let’s take a look at five keys the Vols need to this game that will help them prepare for next week’s game against Florida at the Swamp. Any practice UT gets this week should give them a leg up on the Gators, who had to cancel their game against Northern Colorado this Saturday because of the threat of Hurricane Irma.

Prayers for all those folks in her path.

Let’s see how the Vols did on last week’s keys in their 42-41 double-overtime win over Georgia Tech before we move on.

• Fit the run: Though the first few series were fine, Tennessee did not do a good job of this throughout the night. The Vols were gashed up the middle and beat off the edge. It should have cost them the game. FAIL.
• Find the right mix on the O-line: This looked ugly early, but as the game went on, Tennessee’s offensive line looked good, even without Drew Richomond. Senior center Jashon Robertson and freshman guard Trey Smith were impressive, and quarterback Quinten Dormady wasn’t sacked once. SUCCESS!
• Let the depth of talent win the game: This did NOT happen. With all the defensive linemen and receivers standing over there watching, I wanted UT to use more of its younger players to give some of the older guys breaks. What ultimately won the game were timely turnovers and offensive execution. I can’t give this one a thumb’s up. FAIL.
• Strategic strikes: UT didn’t have to throw the ball downfield a lot, but when it absolutely had to have a big play, Dormady went up top to Marquez Callaway, who made a leaping grab in front of two defenders. For that play alone, and for him making a quick pass and turning into a 50-yard score, this one is a SUCCESS!
• Ride John Kelly: At one point in the late third quarter, Kelly inexplicably had just 10 carries. But in the fourth quarter and overtime, he finished with 93 rushing yards. He went beastmode, and kudos to offensive coordinator Larry Scott for giving him the ball. SUCCESS!

Here are Tennessee’s keys:

How about a little rotation, Shoop?

Defensive linemen Jonathan Kongbo, Darrell Taylor and — gasp! — Kahlil McKenzie were snap warriors last week, all playing more than 75 plays on defense. That is ridiculous and inexplicable against an offense like Georgia Tech’s. If Monday night’s lucky win over the Yellow Jackets was a “chess match” as Bob Shoop called it, the UT second-year defensive coordinator was playing checkers. Or patty-cake. Or something else.

He needs to start earning his money and start trusting his players. The best way for the Vols to build depth along the defensive front and begin relying on guys like Quay Picou, Alexis Johnson, Deandre Johnson, Matthew Butler and Kivon Bennett is to PLAY THEM AND LET THEM TAKE THEIR LUMPS! What was going to happen against Georgia Tech? Give up 535 rushing yards? Oh yeah, that happened anyway. This week against the Sycamores, the Vols need to give kids important reps and get them ready to rotate against Florida.

Preach progressions

There’s nothing wrong with the way Quinten Dormady played in his debut, especially once he settled down in the second half. But the Vols targeted Marquez Callaway an awful lot because he proved he was capable of taking over the game. That’s OK. But Dormady needs to start developing trust in other guys beginning this week.

At times, he looked toward sophomore receiver Brandon Johnson’s way against Tech, but they just didn’t hook up much. Latrell Williams played a lot and played well without having a catch. Freshman Joshua Palmer looked the part but didn’t break through, and guys like Tyler Byrd and Jordan Murphy can help, too. Jauan Jennings isn’t coming back for a while, if at all this season. UT is going to need more than just Callaway and tight end Ethan Wolf in big games.

This is an ideal game for Dormady to read through his progressions and get other guys integrated into the game plan.

Start stronger

Everybody wants to see this.

This season started out the way the Vols played a lot of last year: Getting off to sluggish starts and frantically coming back in the second half. Eventually, that caught up with UT toward the end of the season. Tennessee needs to put together four quarters, and that’s not speaking in cliche, either. There’s no reason for the starters to be out there more than a half in this game, which means they need to take care of business.

Get your reps. Get points on the board. Get out. That needs to happen in Neyland Stadium this weekend.

Build Up Bituli and Co.

I love Colton Jumper. You love Colton Jumper. Listen: We all love Colton Jumper.

But there shouldn’t be any Tennessee defense on Saturday without him in it. When the starters roll out there, Daniel Bituli and his 23 tackles against Tech needs to be out there. If you’re worried about him lining people up as a middle linebacker, this is the game to get him in there and see what he can do.

If he can’t play there as well as Jumper, you’ve got to get Cortez McDowell off the field and Bituli on it. That’s the bottom line. UT’s best defense is one with Bituli in it.

Also, guys who are more athletic on the second level such as sophomore Quart’e Sapp and freshman Will Ignont need to play a ton against the Sycamores. It’s the same thing as that first key for Shoop. How are you going to build faith in anybody with them standing on the sideline?

Don’t Get Anybody Hurt

I thought about putting something about playing Jarrett Guarantano here, but whatever. He’s going to play, and he should. We all need to get over him pouting on national TV on Monday night. He’s a 19-year-old kid.

He is the backup quarterback, and he needs plenty of reps on Saturday along with all the other backups. The Vols don’t need to get ANYBODY important hurt on Saturday. They don’t need to pad the stats and wind up with a season-killing injury to a guy like John Kelly or Darrell Taylor. Let those guys play their half, don’t do anything crazy, and keep your fingers crossed that they don’t have something freak happen.

UT has been snakebit the past two seasons with injuries. That needs to stop.

LOCKS

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I’m 2-3, and that’s all that matters. No matter what I want to brag about the 19-6 overall ATS. That doesn’t matter. Y’all don’t see my board; only these picks. I failed you.

We’ll make up for it this week. I’m giving you two extra games because I LOVE two extra games. Deal with it! Gotta get that winning percentage up!

1. UTSA +16.5 over Baylor: Am I forgetting, or did this Baylor team just get beat by freaking Liberty? Now, they have to play Frank Wilson’s up-and-coming Roadrunners team, and I’m getting SIXTEEN AND A HALF POINTS?!?!? Something smells fishy about this one, but I really like Wilson, and I really like this line.
2. Oklahoma State -28 over South Alabama: I’m gonna pick the Cowboys to cover in every game until they don’t cover. Last week, Shea Patterson threw for a bazillion yards in a 47-27 win over the Jags last week. Imagine what Mason Rudolph is gonna do.
3. Iowa -3 over Iowa State: Last week, the Hawkeyes dominated a good Wyoming team with a great quarterback 24-3. It was never close. Now, they must travel to Ames to take on a rival. They may win this one 17-7, but the bottom line is the Cyclones can’t score enough for it to matter.
4. Tulane and Navy over 47.5: Love rushing yards? This one’s for you. Willie Fritz was a cover machine when he was at Georgia Southern, and he has 16 starters back from his first Green Wave team that went 4-8. Navy runs a little, too. You’re telling me these teams won’t score seven touchdowns between them? Not buying it.
5. Kansas -5.5 over Central Michigan: The Chippewas needed three overtimes to score 30 points and beat Rhode Island in the opening weekend. The Jayhawks obliterated that same team a year ago. The Jayhawks are going to start 2-0 for the first time in what seems like forever. This one’s my favorite of the week. Easy money.
6. South Carolina +2.5 over Missouri: Ugh, this is a tough one. But I’ve been riding South Carolina for a long while now. I think this Tigers defense is absolutely putrid, and while both defenses were garbage in the first game, the Gamecocks have more talent on that side of the ball. They’ll get one more stop and win outright as the underdog at Mizzou.
7. Houston -1 over Arizona: This is my second-favorite game of the weekend. I think Tom Herman left a ton of talent for Major Applewhite, and I believe former Texas A&M quarterback Kyle Allen will start and be stellar for the Cougars. Plus, UH has superior defensive talent. They’ll win on the road.

How did Tennessee’s performance against Georgia Tech affect our outlook on the rest of the season? In this week’s win probability (and you can still fill in your own at the bottom of that post), our readers nudge the Vols to the right side of eight wins:

Most noteworthy here:  our readers now find Florida a more likely victory than Georgia. But the rest of the numbers show this has more to do with what the Gators did than what we saw from the Vols.

Again, it’s difficult to make meaningful observations about the rest of the season from a week one date with the triple option. The good news: it’s Indiana State this Saturday, which means instead of going from a grueling overtime opener to the spectacle of Bristol like last year, the Vols get a much-needed visit from an FCS school with a losing record. The bad news: I’m not sure how much we’re going to learn this week either.

What is most exciting in the week two syllabus?

John Kelly, Marquez Callaway, Ethan Wolf, and…?

When Jauan Jennings went down, Quinten Dormady and Tennessee’s passing game went three places. To no surprise in the Butch Jones offense, the running back played a major role: John Kelly led the team with five receptions. Marquez Callaway was a revelation with 115 yards and two scores. And Ethan Wolf was inches away from what would have been his most productive day in a Tennessee uniform.

Will we see anyone begin to emerge behind those three? Brandon Johnson caught three passes but for only 14 yards underneath against the Yellow Jackets. Josh Palmer started but finished with just one catch. Does Josh Smith play? Can Tyler Byrd get on the same page with the quarterback(s)? Do we see more from some of the backups? The more options the Gators have to prepare for, the better.

How do the Vols rotate on defense?

Plenty of conversation in this short week has emerged around the number of snaps some of Tennessee’s defenders played. The Vols had five of the nation’s Top 50 defenders in total tackles in week one. This is in part because Georgia Tech had 96 offensive snaps in a double overtime game. But it’s also because, despite this, the Vols didn’t really rotate a lot of defenders.

Ten of UT’s starting eleven defenders had at least six tackles; Justin Martin was the odd man out. But behind the starters, no one recorded more than three total tackles. 116 of Tennessee’s 131 total tackles came from those ten players.

The drop-off is even more striking by position:

• Linebacker:  Bituli, Jumper, & McDowell 54 combined tackles; Elliott Berry 1, Quart’e Sapp 1
• Defensive End:  Kongbo & Taylor 19 combined tackles; Kyle Phillips 2
• Safety:  Abernathy & Warrior 22 combined tackles; Todd Kelly Jr. 3

The numbers would have been striking at defensive tackle as well had Kendal Vickers not gone out with an injury. Against 96 plays and 40+ minutes of possession, the Vols rolled with their starters all night long.

The million dollar question here:  was that because the coaches didn’t trust any of the backups against Georgia Tech’s offense, or don’t trust the backups period?

They’ll trust them plenty against Indiana State, and those big names up there could use the rest. We won’t know how deep Bob Shoop and Butch Jones’ trust goes until Gainesville. But seeing who the fourth options are at defensive end, defensive tackle, and safety will be of note, and we’ll get that information this Saturday.

We all know the injury narrative from last season. I’d like to know if guys like Kyle Phillips, Quart’e Sapp, Alexis Johnson, and any number of freshmen can help this team before they have to help this team.

Resting Heart Rate

Months ago you could already see how much healthier Tennessee’s schedule was going to be this year. But I have felt it this week, and you probably have too. We got so used to our hearts beating at 150 bpm every week last fall, we bounced right back to it against Georgia Tech like an old friend who is trying to kill you. But thanks to no Bristol and no Florida-Georgia-A&M-Bama gauntlet this year, we can breathe a little deeper between Saturdays. We’ll get to the Gators. But first, man, we need some Indiana State.

The Statsy Preview Calculator is still shuffling about in front of the coffee pot murmuring something about being awake so early in the season, so we’re going to leave it be for another week until it regains its happy disposition.

And what are one game’s worth of FCS stats going to tell us, anyway? So, let’s just take a quick look at what Indiana State did last year just to see what, if anything, they did well at their own level.

The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores Offense

Offensive observations. What we’re looking at is a pass-heavy middle-of-the-road FCS team. The passing offense was decent, but the rushing game was non-existent, and if they didn’t get it done on first or second down, they didn’t get it done. That’s good news for a tired Vols defense looking to gain some confidence heading into the Florida game next week.

The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores Defense

Defensive observations. Not to pile on here, but apart from the apparent ability to take turnovers to the house, those numbers suggest that the Sycamores appear to play defense a little bit like trees on golf courses. Maybe they’ll present a problem if you try to run right through a bunch of them huddled together, but if you stay on the fairway, you should be fine.

The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores Special Teams

Special Teams observations. Indiana State actually looks like they could be a bit salty on special teams, however. They can block kicks and punts, and they do a pretty good job on kickoff returns, both returning them and covering them.

The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores – Turnovers and Penalties

Turnovers and penalties observations. I’m not sure exactly what to make of these turnover numbers. It appears that Indiana State had some excitement in the form of balls on the ground last season, as they recovered a whole bunch of them, but also lost a bunch of them themselves.

Players to Watch

As mentioned earlier, the Sycamores’ passing game appears to be the strength of the team, and the reason for that is quarterback Isaac Harker, who’s returning this season as a redshirt junior. Harker passed for 2,559 yards and 19 touchdowns last season. Unfortunately for Harker, his top two receivers from last year — Robert Tonyan and Miles Thompson — are gone, and it showed in his first game of the 2017 season. Coaches actually benched Harker after the first half in favor of Cade Sparks, who also struggled. In all, four guys had a total of seven receptions the entire game.

The running game was a different story last week, though. The team lost running back Roland Genesy, their leading rusher from last year, but Lamonte Booker, who was a starter before missing the 2016 season with a knee injury, is back for a redshirt senior season. Booker had 154 yards on 31 carries last week against Eastern Illinois, so he’s no pushover.

On defense, no one really stands out. Defensive end Kenyota Rollins had three sacks and nine tackles for loss last season but didn’t even start last week. Senior defensive lineman Evan Gill did get his name attached to three assists on sacks, and two other guys — sophomore linebacker Inoke Moala and junior defensive back De’Jaun Tyson — each had a sack of their own.

Somebody’s in for a long day

As I wrote in the preseason magazine, Indiana State is staring down a major challenge. As an FCS team that went 4-7 overall and 2-6 in conference last season, they’re heading into Neyland Stadium with a new head coach and not enough returning starters to take on the Tennessee Volunteers. If the Big Orange struggles against the Sycamores, it will be cause for concern.

The bad news for Week 2 of the college football season is that somebody decided to schedule all of the best games in the same time slot. The good news for Vols fans is that that time slot is Saturday night, and you probably have time to get home from the Tennessee game to channel hop your evening away.

Thursday, September 7

Really, if you have something to do this evening, you might want to just do that instead of watching a game on Facebook Live. Then again, you might want to watch it just so you can tell your kids you remember the days when you watched football games on a television.

Friday, September 8

Ditto Friday, I guess. I mean, seriously, how did we go from having a week’s worth of good college football games spread out over five days the first week to cramming it all into four hours Saturday night?

On the other hand, if you want to tune in to see Mike “I’m an old man now, I’m 50” Gundy, feel free.

Gameday, September 9

Okay, let’s talk about a few things here. We’ve had that discussion about whether and under what circumstances to root for other SEC teams once this season already. As you can see from that table up there, I’m rooting for SEC West teams this week, but I’m on the fence about SEC East rivals this week. We can probably all agree that rooting for whatever outcome is best for Tennessee is the proper thing to do, but what’s best for Tennessee is difficult to determine.

So, which non-Tennessee SEC teams are you rooting for this weekend?

Oh, and I’m rooting for Oklahoma over Ohio State as long as Urban Meyer’s a Buckeye, and I’m rooting for Missouri over South Carolina because the Tigers have a more difficult SEC West schedule (Auburn and Arkansas) than the Gamecocks (Texas A&M and Arkansas).