As the data on 2017 continues to trickle in, let’s take a look at what to reasonably expect out of the Vols the rest of the way.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week. And just like last week, there’s a chance at the bottom of the post for you to contribute to the community survey on the same question.

The Vols after Indiana State

After a week of not knowing exactly what to make of a defense playing against Georgia Tech’s triple option, we’re now faced with not knowing exactly what to make of a team playing a middle-of-the-road FCS team.

What we do know is that the team got a lot of different players valuable reps on the field. They used two quarterbacks and five running backs, and nine different players caught a pass. Plus, the NCAA’s official stats say that 17 players have started both games, and, by my count, 71 guys have played in at least one game already this season.

So, that’s all good, but if we can’t really draw any conclusions about a poor defense against Georgia Tech, we also shouldn’t be too hasty about drawing any conclusions about that same defense against an FCS foe. So, woo for 100% on third down stops and all that, but it’s a muted woo.

We really can’t say much about the offense, either. Basically, we’re right around where we expected to be and don’t really know much more about the team than we did in the preseason, other than the identity of some of the guys on whom they’ll rely.

All of that is to say this: I’m not adjusting expectations about the Vols themselves at all after the first two weeks. I am making some adjustments based on Vols’ opponents, though.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (1-1, 0-0 ACC, NR)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF
• W4: Pitt
• W5: North Carolina
• W6: Bye
• W7: At #17 Miami
• W8: Wake Forest
• W9: At #3 Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: #16 Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: #13 Georgia

Oh, my goodness, Jacksonville State held Georgia Tech to 210 yards, less than half of what we did! Our defense must therefore be twice as bad as the . . . hold, please, while I look up the Jacksonville State mascot . . . Gamecocks!

Whatever. The Yellow Jackets had this game in hand long before it was over. Draw whatever conclusions you want, but I’m going to wait and see.

9/9/17: Indiana State (0-1, 0-0 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: At Liberty
• W4: Bye
• W5: At Illinois State
• W6: North Dakota State
• W7: At South Dakota
• W8: S Illinois
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

We got about what we expected from these guys.

The Vols’ future opponents

9/16/17: Florida (0-1, 0-0 SEC, #24)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: #25 Tennessee
• W4: At Kentucky
• W5: Vanderbilt
• W6: #12 LSU
• W7: Texas A&M
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs #15 Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: #10 Florida State

Expectations for a Vols win: No game, no change.

9/23/17: UMass (0-3, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: At Temple
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: Ohio
• W7: Bye
• W8: At #21 USF
• W9: Ga Southern
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Expectations for a Vols win: Goodness, UMass is having a tough time. They had 79 yards rushing, and, according to the lede from ESPN, got beat on a 7-yard quarterback sneak. That’s what it says. Keeping them at 96%.

9/30/17: Georgia (2-0, 0-0 SEC, #13)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Samford
• W4: Mississippi State
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: At Vanderbilt
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

Expectations for a Vols win: The Bulldogs got it done against the Fighting Irish, as Jake Fromm went 16-of-29 for 141 yards with one touchdown and one interception. They also ran for 185 yards, but only got 4.3 yards per carry. They won the game late when Davin Bellamy sacked the Notre Dame QB and made him fumble. Bottom line, Georgia looks good, but they don’t look invincible. I am going to move them from 45% to 40%, though.

10/14/17: South Carolina (2-0, 1-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Kentucky
• W4: LA Tech
• W5: At Texas A&M
• W6: Arkansas
• W7: At #25 Tennessee
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri led South Carolina 10-0 in the second quarter before making the mistake of allowing the Gamecocks’ Deebo Samuel to field a kickoff, which he promptly took directly to the scoreboard for the second week in a row. Samuel then scored again 15 seconds later on a jet sweep after an interception by Jamyest Williams. The question: Was Missouri’s 13 points, after the Tigers put up 72 last week, an indication that they’re not all that or an indication that South Carolina is? We won’t know for sure for a few more weeks, but right now, the Gamecocks do look like a serious contender. I’m moving them from 69% to 60%.

10/21/17: Alabama (2-0, 0-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Colorado State
• W4: At Vanderbilt
• W5: Ole Miss
• W6: At Texas A&M
• W7: Arkansas
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: No surprises here. Keeping the Tide at 10%.

10/28/17: Kentucky (2-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: At South Carolina
• W4: #22 Florida
• W5: E Michigan
• W6: Missouri
• W7: Bye
• W8: At Mississippi State
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: Hmm. Apparently, Kentucky was behind most of this game and needed two turnovers at crucial moments to pull it out. They’re probably going to be fine, but for now, I’m moving them from 65% to 70%.

11/4/17: Southern Miss (1-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: At UL Monroe
• W4: Bye
• W5: North Texas
• W6: UTSA
• W7: UTEP
• W8: At LA Tech
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: That 45-0 win over Southern this week might be more impressive than it seems, as Southern Miss had 28 of those 45 points in the first quarter. It probably shouldn’t matter much, but I am going to move them from 85% to 80% based on that game.

11/11/17: Missouri (1-1, 0-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Purdue
• W4: #13 Auburn
• W5: Bye
• W6: At Kentucky
• W7: At #15 Georgia
• W8: Idaho
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: See the discussion of South Carolina above. Never mind, I guess, about that 72-43 win over Missouri State last week, but I would keep an eye on these guys. For now, I’m moving the Tigers back to 70%, where I had them preseason.

11/18/17: LSU (2-0, 0-0 SEC, #12)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: At Mississippi State
• W4: Syracuse
• W5: Troy
• W6: At #22 Florida
• W7: #13 Auburn
• W8: At Ole Miss
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Watching that recap video makes LSU look impressive, but they were playing Chattanooga. So, I’m leaving these Tigers right at 25% for now.

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (2-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: #19 Kansas State
• W4: #1 Alabama
• W5: At #22 Florida
• W6: #15 Georgia
• W7: At Ole Miss
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: I couldn’t tell you one thing about Alabama A&M, but 42-0 is pretty good, so I’m moving Vandy to 65%.

All of that puts me at 7.71 wins, but with 9 if I’m right on every game.

YOUR TURN

How would you set your win probabilities for the rest of the Vols games? Fill out this form, and we’ll compile the results and post them later this week:

No Fields Found.

The answers will really come next week. But after a week of triple option and a week of FCS, we can put a few questions aside on the road to Gainesville.

Quinten Dormady is Tennessee’s quarterback right now. Speculation that Jarrett Guarantano has a higher ceiling is based in recruiting rankings and…I’m not sure what else at this point. Dormady is 33-of-55 for 415 yards (7.5 yards per attempt) with four touchdowns and one poor decision on an interception today. Since halftime against Georgia Tech, Dormady is 25-of-35 (71.4%) for 363 yards (10.4 ypa).

Guarantano could’ve had more help from his receivers today, but was still 4-of-12 for 41 yards against an FCS opponent. There is a reason they didn’t play him on Monday, and I would not expect to see him in Gainesville. That’s no guarantee Dormady will be lights out against a tougher Gator defense, but he is the clear choice of this coaching staff at the moment. And what we’ve seen on the field backs that up.

Tennessee’s number two running back is up for grabs. Before today Carlin Fils-aime was best known for being part of an unfortunate fumble at South Carolina last year. I was worried, if Ty Chandler had clearly passed him by, that might be the strongest memory he got to make at Tennessee. But CFA took care of that himself today with 41 yards and two touchdowns on three carries.

In Butch Jones’ tenure the Vols have always had a clear one-two at running back (Neal/Lane, Hurd/Lane, Hurd/Kamara). John Kelly is clearly the alpha, but the beta is still up for grabs it would seem.

Dormady loves Brandon Johnson. With seven catches in two games, Johnson has been Tennessee’s most targeted wide receiver. John Kelly has more catches overall as the Vols continue to love to throw to the running back in this offense. And Marquez Callaway is clearly the big play threat. But Johnson might be emerging as the number two option at receiver in what is still a crowded field. Josh Palmer had some big chances today that Dormady overthrew, and Josh Smith was going to start originally but is yet to play. I think the Vols are better off if they get more consistency at the top, but there are some decent options here.

Efficiency competes for championships. The Vols had only one three-and-out today and put an 0-for-11 on Indiana State’s offense on third down. This offense isn’t putting up the numbers we saw in November last year, but that’s an unfair comparison considering the Vols led the nation in yards per play during that stretch last fall. What they have done is get off to a better start in the first two games than what we saw from Team 120 against Appalachian State, Virginia Tech, and Ohio. They avoid negative plays and, since halftime against Georgia Tech, give themselves good opportunities on third down. The defense can’t erase Yellow Jacket memories by beating Indiana State, but they did hold the Sycamores to 3.77 yards per play.

Tennessee now must maintain focus in what will be an emotional week. Where will this Florida game be played? Florida State and Miami have moved their showdown, but the Vols and Gators do not have a common bye week. If Gainesville isn’t an option, could the game be played in Atlanta? Would both teams consider moving it to Knoxville, then playing in Gainesville in both 2018 and 2019?

There will be plenty of rumors, and Florida’s decision makers didn’t endear themselves to the rest of the league over the LSU game last year. But the biggest concern this week is everyone’s safety and the livelihood of those in the Sunshine State; how much that is affected won’t begin to be known until a few days from now. Thoughts and prayers to those in the path of this storm; we’ll figure out football later. And no matter what the outcome, Tennessee is capable of taking care of its own business.

Tennessee’s game on Saturday against Indiana State was much more about the rest of the season than it was about the Sycamores.

There’s not much we can learn about the Vols when you play against a Football Championship Subdivision team that is drastically overmatched from the opening kickoff and win 42-7.

This was more about UT executing its offense, gaining valuable reps for guys who need to provide depth through the grueling stretches of the season and about rebounding from a horrific defensive performance in a fortunate season-opening win over Georgia Tech.

Though, again, there were warts, it was mostly mission accomplished in all three phases.

**CAVEAT: We all know this was Indiana State. Still, if we’re going to discuss the negative (and, Lord knows we’ve done that) we need to harp on the good, too.**

With Evan Berry out and watching from the sideline, the Vols placed dynamic freshman Ty Chandler back to field the opening kickoff. Ninety-one yards later, it was 7-0 Tennessee, and it was on.

Was it always pretty? No. Quinten Dormady didn’t feel the pressure on one occasion and lost a fumble that wound up turning into a touchdown after a few Sycamores plays. He also threw a terrible interception in the end zone that never should have been released. The Vols had some golden opportunities to hit big plays downfield, but twice Dormady overthrew Josh Palmer — who consistently beat defenders downfield all day — and Jarrett Guarantano had a pass dropped by Jeff George on a good pass downfield. And that was only in the first half.

The Sycamores got the edge far too much on jet sweeps, turning it upfield for considerable gains on running plays, and even though ISU finished 0-of-11 on third-down conversions, it wasn’t always dominating for Tennessee’s defense. Still, you’re being too picky if this performance disappointed you.

Jonathan Kongbo and Kyle Phillips played much better than they did a week ago, and UT nearly had double-digit tackles for a loss. Bituli continued to prove he’s a playmaker, and the Vols defensive line bounced back a bit.

But with the negative out of the way, the Vols performed plenty well enough to satisfy the masses and provide a positive tune-up prior to the Florida game. The only worrisome injury occurred when backup tight end Eli Wolf went out in the first quarter and finished the game on crutches, watching from the sideline.

Everything else was OK. Special teams were brilliant, including Trevor Daniel’s titanium leg and punt returner Marquez Callaway giving UT great starting field position a couple of times.

UT still looked too slow at times on defense, but the Vols played a lot of guys, and they did swarm to the football. Daniel Bituli again proved he belongs somewhere on the football field at all times. You simply can’t take one of your three best playmakers (along with Darrell Taylor and Nigel Warrior) off when your defense is lacking speed and difference-makers.

The biggest excitement, at least to me, came for Tennessee on offense. Would I have liked to see UT have a few more explosion plays downfield, hitting Palmer on a big pass play or two? Absolutely. That would have made it a perfect day. Would I have liked to see Guarantano take off and display his dual-threat dynamics? Sure, that would have been nice, too.

But the Vols played the methodical game to perfection. This offensive line is playing terrific for the most part, especially the interior. That’s where senior center Jashon Robertson, freshman Trey Smith, junior Jack Jones and redshirt sophomore Venzell Boulware all flashed all day. Those guys are opening up huge holes, and John Kelly blew threw them. When Kelly needed a breather, the Vols showed they’ve got some explosion behind him with freshman Ty Chandler and sophomore Carlin Fils-aime.

While we’re there, Fils-aime?!?!?! Where did that come from? All through the preseason, people were discrediting his role in this offense, saying Chandler was going to blow by him on the depth chart. Maybe he has. But that doesn’t mean Fils-aime should spend all his time on the sideline. He proved that on Saturday, finishing a touchdown run by punishing a middle defender, then blowing through a gaping hole on his second scoring run to prove he’s got some speed and shake to go along with the power he displayed for an undersized guy on that first run.

There are a lot of reasons to be excited. Yes, the guys who are supposed to show out did well, especially John Kelly. Dormady had some good moments and some not-so-great moments, and the Vols found other weapons in the passing game as Callaway was relatively quiet. When Dormady finally found him, he took his reception in for a touchdown, but Tennessee’s receiving corps proved they could make plays, too.

Yes, it was against Indiana State, and no, it wasn’t the 50-point performance we all wanted to see, but the Vols got to sit a bunch of players who were battling injuries, and they got to rotate in a bunch of subs, too. They also came out fairly healthy.

With Florida sitting this week due to Hurricane Irma, all of this was important. Does this team look ready to play the Gators? In the Swamp? That’s up in the air. There are still mistakes to be fixed, plays to be made, depth to be displayed and some gaps to fill.

But Saturday did nothing to prove that Tennessee has serious problems. If anything, it showed the Vols are talented, even though they’re young, inexperienced and make a lot of mistakes.

The Vols proved what they had from a grit-and-grind perspective in Week 1. All we could see this week was they took care of business the way they were expected to against a bad team.

The real test about what this season is going to look like comes in Gainesville next week. Unfortunately for UT, it comes — like most years — before all the kinks can be worked out. But the Gators have their fair share of question marks, too, especially after Michigan looked like anything but world-beaters against Cincinnati this week.

Saturday was about what the Vols could become as we wind toward the meat of the season. It was about what they are now and where they need to go. There’s a long way left until this is a team that can reach its potential, but the potential is there.

So, if you choose to be critical of this team, that’s your prerogative. If you choose to be excited about the possibilities, that’s your choice, too. As of now, the best any of us can be is cautiously optimistic. This is a team that will be carried by Kelly and can be efficient with good quarterback play and timely defensive stops.

If either of those last two things are absent, it’s going to be hard to win. But Saturday shouldn’t give you any pause about the possibilities of what Tennessee’s ceiling is in 2017.

Last Monday night, it was “Football Time in Tennessee,” but only kinda sorta because “Football Time for Tennessee in Georgia this week because we’re on the road to start the season” sounds like a Daniel Tiger song, cramming square peg words into round hole melodies. You’ll be singing it ALL DAY LONG, but it’s never going to make the Top 40.

But today, it’s actually all caps “FOOTBALL TIME IN TENNESSEE” for real, as the Vols host the Indiana State Sycamores in their home opener at Neyland Stadium this afternoon at 4:00 p.m.

The SEC Network has the broadcast, and David Neal, Matt Stinchcomb, and Dawn Davenport are the broadcast personalities.

This is your Gameday on Rocky Top game thread. If you haven’t signed up for the Guessing Game yet, you can do that here all the way through kickoff.

Go Vols!

We hope you’re heading up/down/over to Neyland Stadium for the Vols’ home opener this afternoon, but there’s a fair amount of other games to watch today as well. Hang out with us here while you’re watching.

Note that the several games have been canceled, postponed, and/or moved due to Hurricane Irma, including the Florida game against Northern Colorado that was supposed to kick at noon, so be wary of any college football TV schedule posts live out there on the internet.

There will be a separate game thread for the Vols, which will go live later.

By now, you know the drill. If you don’t, check last week’s column for details. The long and short of it is we pick five keys for the Vols to beat this week’s opponent (which isn’t going to be that difficult, considering this week’s opponent is the Fightin’ Larry Birds of Indiana State) and then we give you five locks to place money on if gambling were legal.

Last week, I went 2-3, but that was a joke. In actuality, I’d have gone 4-1 because two of the games I flat-out LOVED were on Thursday night. Even though I wrote the column before then, it wouldn’t have done you guys any good, so I didn’t include them.

All in all, I went 19-6 ATS last week. It just so happened half of those losses were games I really, really liked, which is the reason why you shouldn’t gamble, kids.

I fell into the idiot pit of watching Week Zero and making too much out of a good offense playing a bad team, and that’s why I picked Colorado State to cover against rival Colorado. I thought the Buffaloes would have a hard time replacing all that defensive talent and coordinator Jim Leavitt, but they didn’t. Also, quarterback Steven Montez looked pretty darn good in a 17-3 win. So, yeah, that one was bad.

I like Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen a ton, but the Cowboys threw up a duck fart against Iowa, so we’re going to pretend those two games didn’t happen. Bad, bad losses. As for the Vols, I was worried about that game throughout the offseason, but I’m not complaining one bit. That one-point lead didn’t win me any of your hearts picking games, but I’m just happy UT is 1-0.

Michigan and LSU were free money.

With that, it’s onto Tennessee’s keys this week. Since it would be a shocker of all shockers for the Vols to lose to the Sycamores, let’s take a look at five keys the Vols need to this game that will help them prepare for next week’s game against Florida at the Swamp. Any practice UT gets this week should give them a leg up on the Gators, who had to cancel their game against Northern Colorado this Saturday because of the threat of Hurricane Irma.

Prayers for all those folks in her path.

Let’s see how the Vols did on last week’s keys in their 42-41 double-overtime win over Georgia Tech before we move on.

• Fit the run: Though the first few series were fine, Tennessee did not do a good job of this throughout the night. The Vols were gashed up the middle and beat off the edge. It should have cost them the game. FAIL.
• Find the right mix on the O-line: This looked ugly early, but as the game went on, Tennessee’s offensive line looked good, even without Drew Richomond. Senior center Jashon Robertson and freshman guard Trey Smith were impressive, and quarterback Quinten Dormady wasn’t sacked once. SUCCESS!
• Let the depth of talent win the game: This did NOT happen. With all the defensive linemen and receivers standing over there watching, I wanted UT to use more of its younger players to give some of the older guys breaks. What ultimately won the game were timely turnovers and offensive execution. I can’t give this one a thumb’s up. FAIL.
• Strategic strikes: UT didn’t have to throw the ball downfield a lot, but when it absolutely had to have a big play, Dormady went up top to Marquez Callaway, who made a leaping grab in front of two defenders. For that play alone, and for him making a quick pass and turning into a 50-yard score, this one is a SUCCESS!
• Ride John Kelly: At one point in the late third quarter, Kelly inexplicably had just 10 carries. But in the fourth quarter and overtime, he finished with 93 rushing yards. He went beastmode, and kudos to offensive coordinator Larry Scott for giving him the ball. SUCCESS!

Here are Tennessee’s keys:

How about a little rotation, Shoop?

Defensive linemen Jonathan Kongbo, Darrell Taylor and — gasp! — Kahlil McKenzie were snap warriors last week, all playing more than 75 plays on defense. That is ridiculous and inexplicable against an offense like Georgia Tech’s. If Monday night’s lucky win over the Yellow Jackets was a “chess match” as Bob Shoop called it, the UT second-year defensive coordinator was playing checkers. Or patty-cake. Or something else.

He needs to start earning his money and start trusting his players. The best way for the Vols to build depth along the defensive front and begin relying on guys like Quay Picou, Alexis Johnson, Deandre Johnson, Matthew Butler and Kivon Bennett is to PLAY THEM AND LET THEM TAKE THEIR LUMPS! What was going to happen against Georgia Tech? Give up 535 rushing yards? Oh yeah, that happened anyway. This week against the Sycamores, the Vols need to give kids important reps and get them ready to rotate against Florida.

Preach progressions

There’s nothing wrong with the way Quinten Dormady played in his debut, especially once he settled down in the second half. But the Vols targeted Marquez Callaway an awful lot because he proved he was capable of taking over the game. That’s OK. But Dormady needs to start developing trust in other guys beginning this week.

At times, he looked toward sophomore receiver Brandon Johnson’s way against Tech, but they just didn’t hook up much. Latrell Williams played a lot and played well without having a catch. Freshman Joshua Palmer looked the part but didn’t break through, and guys like Tyler Byrd and Jordan Murphy can help, too. Jauan Jennings isn’t coming back for a while, if at all this season. UT is going to need more than just Callaway and tight end Ethan Wolf in big games.

This is an ideal game for Dormady to read through his progressions and get other guys integrated into the game plan.

Start stronger

Everybody wants to see this.

This season started out the way the Vols played a lot of last year: Getting off to sluggish starts and frantically coming back in the second half. Eventually, that caught up with UT toward the end of the season. Tennessee needs to put together four quarters, and that’s not speaking in cliche, either. There’s no reason for the starters to be out there more than a half in this game, which means they need to take care of business.

Get your reps. Get points on the board. Get out. That needs to happen in Neyland Stadium this weekend.

Build Up Bituli and Co.

I love Colton Jumper. You love Colton Jumper. Listen: We all love Colton Jumper.

But there shouldn’t be any Tennessee defense on Saturday without him in it. When the starters roll out there, Daniel Bituli and his 23 tackles against Tech needs to be out there. If you’re worried about him lining people up as a middle linebacker, this is the game to get him in there and see what he can do.

If he can’t play there as well as Jumper, you’ve got to get Cortez McDowell off the field and Bituli on it. That’s the bottom line. UT’s best defense is one with Bituli in it.

Also, guys who are more athletic on the second level such as sophomore Quart’e Sapp and freshman Will Ignont need to play a ton against the Sycamores. It’s the same thing as that first key for Shoop. How are you going to build faith in anybody with them standing on the sideline?

Don’t Get Anybody Hurt

I thought about putting something about playing Jarrett Guarantano here, but whatever. He’s going to play, and he should. We all need to get over him pouting on national TV on Monday night. He’s a 19-year-old kid.

He is the backup quarterback, and he needs plenty of reps on Saturday along with all the other backups. The Vols don’t need to get ANYBODY important hurt on Saturday. They don’t need to pad the stats and wind up with a season-killing injury to a guy like John Kelly or Darrell Taylor. Let those guys play their half, don’t do anything crazy, and keep your fingers crossed that they don’t have something freak happen.

UT has been snakebit the past two seasons with injuries. That needs to stop.

LOCKS

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I’m 2-3, and that’s all that matters. No matter what I want to brag about the 19-6 overall ATS. That doesn’t matter. Y’all don’t see my board; only these picks. I failed you.

We’ll make up for it this week. I’m giving you two extra games because I LOVE two extra games. Deal with it! Gotta get that winning percentage up!

1. UTSA +16.5 over Baylor: Am I forgetting, or did this Baylor team just get beat by freaking Liberty? Now, they have to play Frank Wilson’s up-and-coming Roadrunners team, and I’m getting SIXTEEN AND A HALF POINTS?!?!? Something smells fishy about this one, but I really like Wilson, and I really like this line.
2. Oklahoma State -28 over South Alabama: I’m gonna pick the Cowboys to cover in every game until they don’t cover. Last week, Shea Patterson threw for a bazillion yards in a 47-27 win over the Jags last week. Imagine what Mason Rudolph is gonna do.
3. Iowa -3 over Iowa State: Last week, the Hawkeyes dominated a good Wyoming team with a great quarterback 24-3. It was never close. Now, they must travel to Ames to take on a rival. They may win this one 17-7, but the bottom line is the Cyclones can’t score enough for it to matter.
4. Tulane and Navy over 47.5: Love rushing yards? This one’s for you. Willie Fritz was a cover machine when he was at Georgia Southern, and he has 16 starters back from his first Green Wave team that went 4-8. Navy runs a little, too. You’re telling me these teams won’t score seven touchdowns between them? Not buying it.
5. Kansas -5.5 over Central Michigan: The Chippewas needed three overtimes to score 30 points and beat Rhode Island in the opening weekend. The Jayhawks obliterated that same team a year ago. The Jayhawks are going to start 2-0 for the first time in what seems like forever. This one’s my favorite of the week. Easy money.
6. South Carolina +2.5 over Missouri: Ugh, this is a tough one. But I’ve been riding South Carolina for a long while now. I think this Tigers defense is absolutely putrid, and while both defenses were garbage in the first game, the Gamecocks have more talent on that side of the ball. They’ll get one more stop and win outright as the underdog at Mizzou.
7. Houston -1 over Arizona: This is my second-favorite game of the weekend. I think Tom Herman left a ton of talent for Major Applewhite, and I believe former Texas A&M quarterback Kyle Allen will start and be stellar for the Cougars. Plus, UH has superior defensive talent. They’ll win on the road.