There’s still plenty of conversation about last week and plenty of conversation about the future, but in the present Tennessee finds itself in a crowded SEC East field. Fans of a certain age are used to losing to Florida and then only having to care about whether the Gators lost twice. But two things have complicated that equation:  one, Nick Saban’s dominance in Tuscaloosa means most will pencil in a second loss for the Vols, requiring an additional Gator loss or a complicated tiebreaker. And two, the SEC East is now much more competitive top to bottom.

Through three weeks, here’s how ESPN’s FPI projects the SEC East in conference win total:

What do Tennessee and Vanderbilt have in common near the bottom of the list? They both play Alabama and both get only an 11% chance from FPI, significantly driving down the overall projection. It’s frustrating to see the Vols fifth on this list right now, but the bigger takeaway to me is how crowded the field is from 1-6. Saying 5-3 might win the East is no exaggeration; three weeks in, it seems like the most likely outcome.

If that 11% doesn’t get it done against Alabama tomorrow and Mississippi State stays hot at Georgia (UGA is a 4.5-point favorite), every SEC East team will have a loss other than the winner of Kentucky/Florida. And if the Cats can turn back three decades of futility, the season outlook will seem significantly brighter for Tennessee.

Florida maintains a scheduling advantage due to moving the LSU game last year, and what seemed like a tough SEC West draw of the Tigers and Texas A&M now seems much easier. Meanwhile Georgia’s draw of Mississippi State this week and their annual meeting with Auburn seems more difficult. You never know how these things are going to turn out, but I do know any win for an East team over a West team this year will be a tremendous asset. Not because the West is necessarily so much better than the East this year, but because the East seems so tightly packed.

So yes, watch the Vols Saturday. But the greatest importance to Tennessee’s season this week is what happens Saturday night in Lexington and Athens. We’ll learn a little more about the East race, and might even find ourselves much more in it than we thought just one week after the Florida loss.

Check out our full schedule of what Tennessee fans should watch this weekend.

If you’re finished crying … or drinking … or spitting anger after last week’s coaching debacle that led to a 26-20 What-the-Hail?!!? Mary win by Florida over the Vols, it’s time to get back on the horse and get ready to play the Minutemen.

Hey, that’s one mascot we can all identify with, amirite?

Anyway, onward and upward. None of us are happy with Butch Jones right now, but we need to snap and clear, build back our emotions brick by brick as individuals and get back to being champions of life. It’s UMASS WEEK, after all! WOOHOO! Win comin’!

Speaking of wins, last week, I went 4-2 in my picks, upping my record to 10-7-1 on the season. That’s not bad. We’re improving every week, getting there. It’ll come. Maybe by year seven [in Jones years]. Who’d have thought UCLA would get out-gunned by Memphis? I sure didn’t. Also, the Vols were getting 5.5 points in Gainesville, and they were two touchdowns better with decent coaching. I don’t feel bad about that loss, relatively speaking.

The others were pretty easy. Tulsa lost but easily within the 10.5 points it was getting. That Missouri-Purdue under 78.5 never even got close, Clemson trounced Louisville and North Carolina (a 7.5 favorite) beat Old Dominion by 30. Good week for the good guy, even if it wasn’t for the Good Guys.

Anyway, UT is 2-1, and that’s all we care about. Let’s first take a look at last week’s keys and find out why they’re 2-1. It’s because they didn’t listen to me.

• Take care of the ball: Nope. This didn’t happen. Quinten Dormady threw three interceptions, including one inside the 10-yard line and one that was returned for a touchdown. That’s inexplicable when you’re playing against a team like Florida. You simply can’t do it. The Vols did it. FAIL!
• Impose your will: Nope. Tennessee did this at times through the game, riding John Kelly. But the Vols didn’t do it when it mattered most. They had seven and-goal downs against the Gators, and all seven of them were passes. One was completed for zero yards. That’s awful. As good as Larry Scott was in the first two games, he was terrible in the game that mattered most so far. FAIL!
• Cover those edges: This was much, much, much better. The Gators struggled to sustain drives and couldn’t get anything going offensively for much of the game. It was a much-improved game by the defense, until the last play of the game, that is. SUCCESS!
• Get a game-changer: This never happened for the Vols, and you feel like Kelly was close. Instead, the Gators got a pick-six and then the 63-yard incredible completion on a beautiful bomb by Feleipe Franks on the game’s final play. FAIL!
• Be the aggressor: Same ol’ sloppy, timid Tennessee against the Gators. The Vols tried to do better in the fourth quarter, and you have to give it to the players for fighting. But the coaches coached soft. FAIL!

That’s one out of five. That’ll get you beat every time.

KEYS

Get Guarantano Extended Reps

The talented Tennessee redshirt freshman quarterback hasn’t played enough yet for us to really know what we’ve got with him. While Q hasn’t really lost the starting QB job, he hasn’t seized it yet, either. What if what the Vols have on the sideline is the next star signal-caller, and he just needs a chance? If he comes out and lights up the Minutemen, I’m not suggesting you start him against Georgia, but this UMass team is awful. You need to get Guarantano some key reps just in case Dormady continues to struggle with his ball placement and decision making.

Both of these signal-callers are talented. But only one of them is getting the most important reps. These coaches need to prepare for anything, and that means Guarantano needs to be ready. The only way he gets that way is with extended action.

Can I Get a Shamburger, Please?

All we heard about throughout the preseason was how impressive Tennessee freshman cornerback Shawn Shamburger was. The same goes for fellow cornerback Cheyenne Labruzza and safety Theo Jackson.

Well, I think it’s time to play at least Shamburger.

No matter how much Justin Martin hustled and batted that ball through the end zone for a touchback last week, it’s not been a good start to the season for the senior. What do you lose getting Shamburger a lot of action against UMass? What if he’s a star-in-the-making? Jackson looks primed to be the No. 3 safety with Todd Kelly Jr. out for the year, so it’s important that he gets some reps, too. But the Vols need help in the secondary. This is the right time to do it.

Ty Time

One positive for the Vols coaches last week was the package that they put in for freshman running back Ty Chandler. We all know John Kelly is a horse, and you’d like to get him enough yards in a quarter or two to set him up for some postseason accolades, sure, but those things aren’t important. The most important thing is that he’s healthy for the gauntlet UT must endure in October.

Plus, Chandler needs a long look as a primary back. Let’s give him 20 touches and see what happens. I think we’ll all be pleasantly surprised, and Kelly will get a rest, too.

Don’t Get Anybody Hurt

Again, we touched on this with Kelly above, but UT is averaging about one season-ending injury per week. Can we stop this trend? Please?

Let the Byrd Fly

Remember when Tyler Byrd flipped from Miami to Tennessee and we thought we had one of the best incoming playmakers that we’d had in years? Yeah, he is still talented. We just don’t get him the football.

It’s asinine that Tennessee is playing Byrd on offense, but whatever. The Vols say they’ve got him over there because he needs the ball in his hands. Well, then, GET HIM THE BALL!

It’s time for him to have an expanded role. This is getting ridiculous. We’re wasting a great talent. Throw him the ball or put him at cornerback where he’s an NFL player.

LOCKS

Either I’m seeing things incredibly well this week, or I’m going to get taken to the cleaners. Two or three of these look too good to be true. That means they probably are. But I’m 10-7-1, so I’m gonna keep going with my gut.

1. Utah -3.5 over Arizona: I don’t get this one at all. The Utes probably aren’t good enough to be ranked, but just because the Wildcats blew out UTEP doesn’t mean they’re suddenly good. They aren’t. I like coach Kyle Whittingham’s team by double digits.
2. West Virginia -21.5 over Kansas: In the past two weeks, Central Michigan beat this Jayhawks team by 18 (then went on to get crushed at Syracuse), then Ohio beat them by 12. Now, you’re telling me that Will Grier and Co. won’t win by more than three touchdowns? The only way this doesn’t cover is if the Mountaineers are resting starters.
3. Duke -2.5 over North Carolina: I believe in Duke. I believe in David Cutcliffe. I believe in quarterback Daniel Jones. And I believe in the Blue Devils’ top-ranked rush defense. This is a team good enough to be ranked. The Tar Heels? Not so much.
4. Florida -2.5 over Kentucky: I don’t believe in Kentucky. I know the Wildcats believe they found something a week ago in a shocking road win at South Carolina. And the Gators certainly aren’t world-beaters. But they’re better than UK. They’ll win by a touchdown or more.
5. Oregon -14 over Arizona State: Again, this is one I do not get. I believe this Oregon team is rolling under Willie Taggart and behind Royce Freeman. The Sun Devils cannot stop anybody. Tons of points will be scored, but the Ducks will score a lot more.
6. Tulsa -10 over New Mexico: Tulsa is a winner against the spread. I like winners. I ride winners. The Golden Hurricane has been money for a lot of weeks for me [if gambling were legal]. I’m gonna keep riding them.
7. San Diego State -3.5 over Air Force: Two good, well-coached teams going at it in what is a very important Mountain West Conference game. But this is a low spread, even if the Aztecs are on the road. They’ve got the best runner in the nation you don’t know about in Rashaad Penny and a solid defense. They’ll cover.
8. Oklahoma State -12.5 over TCU: Remember what I said about winners? Mason Rudolph and Co. are winners. I don’t think the Horny Toads can hang.

This Saturday’s game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the UMass Minutemen should give the Big Orange an opportunity to find out more about their second-tier players. UMass is struggling mightily out of the gate at 0-4, and with the Vols trying to get their minds right after the bitter Florida loss and also prepare for an even more important game next week against the Georgia Bulldogs, the game plan for Tennessee should be to seize control early and get their backups in quickly for an extended look.

Here’s a quick look at UMass’ strengths and weaknesses, along with the Minutemen to watch.

UMass strengths and weaknesses

From this, it would appear that for all of its problems, the UMass offense is pretty good on first down and is not bad at all in the passing game. That said, their numbers scream “ONE DIMENSIONAL.” If that’s the case, the Vols’ defense should be able to contain the run game and then tee off on passing plays. Tennessee’s defensive line should have a good day wreaking havoc behind the line of scrimmage, as the Minutemen are giving up A LOT of sacks and TFLs.

Not that the Vols should pound their chest about it much, but the UMass defense starts off at mediocre and gets worse from there. Tennessee’s run game should be able to control this one out of the gate, and when it is time to pass, they should be just fine.

Again, not much to worry about here for the Vols.

Players to Watch

If the passing game is the thing to watch, then it all starts with junior quarterback Andrew Ford, who is 90-of-140 for 1,204 yards and six touchdowns after four games so far this season. He’s thrown only one interception.

Ford does a good job of spreading the ball around to his three favorite targets: senior tight end Adam Breneman (24 receptions for 369 yards, but no touchdowns), junior running back Andy Isabella (20 receptions for 306 yards and three touchdowns, and sophomore wide receiver Sadiq Palmer (17 receptions for 239 yards).

When they’re not passing the ball, they’re handing off to junior running back Marquis Young, who’s rushed for 225 yards this season on 60 carries. He’s had four touchdowns, and he’s also caught 12 passes for 71 yards.

On the defensive side of the ball, senior lineman Da’Sean Downey has three sacks and three tackles for loss on the season. The team’s leading tackler is senior linebacker Bryton Barr, and the secondary’s best defender so far appears to be sophomore Isaiah Rodgers, who has three pass breakups and an interception.

If the NCAA’s official field goal stats can be trusted, freshman kicker Michael Schreiner is 0-4 so far this season. He’s also only had one touchback on 17 kickoffs, so watch for Ty Chandler or whoever else is back there to maybe have a big day returning kicks.

Below are the results from our survey of the GRT community on how last weekend impacted our collective expected win total for the Vols this season. We opened this week’s Win Probability Calculator for business on Sunday at noon, and the last entry was Tuesday. The room temperature was hottest Saturday night and cooled over the course of the week, so if temperature affects reporting of expectations, keep that in mind.

Here are this week’s results:

Lots of 50/50 games in there in South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU, and Vanderbilt. Folks are considerably less confident in the Georgia game, but still think UMass, Southern Miss, and Missouri are safe. While adding up the percentages only equates to barely over seven wins, being right on each game would mean the Vols would win eight games, about what the fan base collectively expected before the season began.

The third game of the season. A humiliating, embarrassing loss to a hated rival. Folks immediately calling for the coach’s head on a plate.

It was Saturday night, September 15, 2007, and Vols fans were livid. Urban Meyer, Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, and Brandon James had just flat-out dominated Tennessee in The Swamp, 59-20. They didn’t just win the game, they ripped the hope for the entire season out of our hands and curb-stomped it.

There was no way Tennessee could recover, no way the Vols would be able to compete for the East.

It was not a happy time on Rocky Top. The Big Orange was now 1-2 after three games, and fans everywhere were busy making jokes about Phillip Fulmer responding to the adversity by “working like heck,” to get it fixed. A win over Arkansas State the next week did little to dull the sharp edges, and a bye week after that only gave it additional time to fester.

And then #12 Georgia came to town the same day an article appeared in the local paper that was extremely critical of coach Fulmer and ostensibly relied on quotes from anonymous former players to drive its points deep. The whole thing was going off the rails.

Georgia

But then, the thing that nobody said could possibly happen, happened. The unranked Vols beat #12 Georgia. They not only beat them, they did to the Bulldogs what Florida had done to them three weeks prior. Tennessee won 35-14 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score made it look.

Meanwhile, Florida had lost the week before to Auburn and then lost to LSU on the same day that Tennessee beat Georgia, and Tennessee was now ahead of Florida in the race for the SEC East. Georgia, which would lose only two games the entire year, was also looking up at Tennessee when the sun set on October 6, 2007.

Alabama

So, flared tempers settled for a couple of weeks. The Vols took care of business against Mississippi State, and then the team traveled to Alabama on October 20. This was Nick Saban’s first year at Alabama, before he was NICK [FULMERIZED] SABAN and Alabama went on a decade-long (so far) rampage for the ages. The Tide would lose six (SIX!) games in 2007.

But they wouldn’t lose to Tennessee. And, in keeping with the theme for the season, they didn’t just beat the Vols, they embarrassed them, 41-17. Forget what you know about Alabama right now; this was a terrible loss to a terrible team, and it dashed the Vols’ hopes for the SEC East. Again. Florida was now 3-2 with the tiebreaker over the Vols.

South Carolina

The next two weeks did little to diminish the fury that had reloaded, rebuilt, and set up headquarters on Kingston Pike. With #16 South Carolina coming to town, the newspaper published a photo of the Grim Reaper at coach Fulmer’s door, and TV guys were saying that the only thing the program had left to look forward to was signing day and the NFL Draft. Fulmer used it to rally his guys, and they beat the Gamecocks in overtime.

Georgia beat Florida that same day, tying everything up in the East, but few cared. The Vols were certain to lose another game along the way, especially with the Arkansas Razorbacks and Heisman-contender Darren McFadden coming to town two in two weeks.

Arkansas

This time, though, those supporting Fulmer were on to the newspaper’s tricks. Nearly 200 former players, including Peyton Manning and Albert Haynesworth, went on record by actually signing their names to a letter of support and paying the newspaper to publish it as a full-page advertisement. The Vols went out and handled McFadden and the Razorbacks easily that day and won, 34-13. A defense that “couldn’t stop anybody,” held the SEC’s best rusher to 117 yards on 22 carries and his team to a mere 13 points.

Vanderbilt and Kentucky

But the drama wasn’t over. Florida won that day, and Georgia beat #18 Auburn, so Tennessee needed to win the rest of its games to keep ahead of the Gators and hold of the tiebreaker against Georgia, and many remained unconvinced that they’d be able to do it. They squeaked out a one-point victory over Vanderbilt on November 17 when the Commodores barely missed what would have been a 49-yard, game-winning field goal with 33-seconds left.

The following week gave us the epic four overtime game with Kentucky, which the Vols finally won 52-50. This game will always be the Fiddler on the Roof game to me, and to this day it remains one of the most entertaining things I’ve ever seen. After everything that had happened, it was an all-or-nothing game the Vols needed for a trip to the SEC Championship. In keeping with the rest of the season, the Vols got behind early, it was close the rest of the way, and they pulled it out in the end.

The SEC Championship Game

After having backed in to the championship game, the Vols certainly had no chance against #7 LSU, right? Wrong. They were one fourth-quarter pick-six away from winning the game and the conference.

The 2007 season was part heartbreak and part thriller, all rolled up into one. I often wonder, though, how many may have missed the thrill because they were filled with dread before every game, certain that more heartbreak lurked around the corner.

I hated 2007. I loved 2007. I’m glad I didn’t let the former spoil the latter.

Where are we now?

Third game of the season. A humiliating, embarrassing loss to a hated rival. Folks immediately calling for the coach’s head on a plate.

The rest of the season may be heartbreaking. It may also be thrilling. Probably, it will be a combination of both.

No one can know for sure until it happens. But if there’s something good at the end of this path, we won’t want to miss it.

P.S.

Chaos didn’t limit itself to Tennessee and the SEC East in 2007. The entire college football landscape was turned upside down. For an animation recapping much of that, see the old 2007 Animated BlogPoll.

Here’s our weekly update of the Vols’ statistical rankings, after the Florida game.

Offensive observations: The offensive line still seems to be doing a good job of protecting the quarterback. First down, third down, and scoring is . . . okay, but then go south in a hurry.

The most striking thing is that Red Zone Offense has gone from first three weeks ago to 100th this week.

Defensive observations: My mother always taught me that if you can’t say anything nice . . . you move on to special teams.

Special Teams observations: Need to tighten up that punt return and kick return defense, but other than that, high fives all around. And, of course, it’s only now that I realize that field goals isn’t on this list for some reason.

Turnovers and Penalties observations: Okay, decent. Could be better, but not terrible.

Player Rankings