VolQuest is reporting that Tennessee defensive end Darrell Taylor has been suspended indefinitely following the fight reported last week between him and offensive lineman Trey Smith. The fight reportedly occurred during a one-minute drill and ended with Taylor kicking Smith in the face and inflicting a blow that required stitches.

Taylor was already suspended for the first half against South Carolina after being ejected for fighting in the second half against Georgia on September 30. Butch Jones has a press conference at noon and may (or may not) provide further details.

Last week featured a bye for the Vols, a few upsets, and a few mild surprises. What’s it mean for the rest of the season?

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after the bye

Tennessee didn’t play this week, of course, but that doesn’t mean opinions of the team and its prospects for the immediate future can’t change based on other happenings. Take, for instance, the fight between Darrell Taylor and Trey Smith. Here’s the information we have on the incident:

Source: UT DE Darrell Taylor kicked OL Trey Smith’s face at
practice during 1 minute drill Thursday, leading to Smith needing stitches.

— Jimmy Hyams (@JimmyHyams) October 6, 2017

Source: Smith blocked Taylor to the ground and Smith lost his helmet. They wrestled. Taylor then kicked at Smith and hit him in the face.

— Jimmy Hyams (@JimmyHyams) October 6, 2017

This sounds to me more like a post-play scrum that got out of hand due to heightened emotions with everybody flailing about and an incidental kick to the face as a consequence than it does Taylor curb-stomping Smith, but we’re all filling in the gaps with our own conjecture. My first thought was actually that someone must have finally lit a fire under the Vols’ linemen in an attempt to get them to play with some emotion and that our best defensive lineman and our best offensive lineman were getting after it in practice and the play got a little out of hand. But it’s not surprising, either, that some would view the news as more evidence of a broken team. When that train gets rolling, it colors the perception of everything.

[EDIT: Yeah, about that. Jones has reportedly now suspended Taylor indefinitely, but not Smith. At the least, that almost certainly means that Taylor was more at fault than Smith and that it probably wasn’t just some regular scrum between two amped-up players and makes it look more like bad news than no news.]

Without more information, though, I’m viewing it as something that wouldn’t have bothered us if we weren’t already on high alert for bad news, and so I’m making no adjustments for the team itself this week. The expectations were bad enough already after last week.

Non-opponents

We usually only look at how the Vols did and how the Vols’ past and future opponents did the prior week to inform our new expectations for the week, but this weekend reminded me once again that we’re all generally terrible at guessing the future based on the past. Things we’d never expect to happen often happen anyway. Sometimes, favorites lose to unranked teams at home (LSU last week, Oklahoma and Michigan this week). And sometimes, teams that look like they’re destined for the trash heap (LSU, Texas A&M) begin to piece things together and beat rivals in difficult places to play or give the decade’s best team an actual real game against all odds.

The past may portend the future, but it doesn’t always define it.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (3-1, 2-0 ACC, RV)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF (canceled)
• W4: Beat Pitt, 35-17.
• W5: Beat North Carolina, 33-7.
• W6: Bye
• W7: At Miami
• W8: Wake Forest
• W9: At #3 Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: #16 Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: #13 Georgia

Did not play. They are tied with Miami for first in the ACC Coastal after six weeks, though.

Indiana State (0-5, 0-2 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to Illinois State, 24-13.
• W6: Lost to North Dakota State, 52-0.
• W7: At South Dakota
• W8: S Illinois
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

Oof. The North Dakota State contest was the Sycamores’ first home game in 37 days, and they threw three interceptions and lost three fumbles.

Florida (3-2, 3-1 SEC, RV)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
• W4: Beat Kentucky, 28-27.
• W5: Beat Vanderbilt, 38-24.
• W6: Lost to LSU, 17-16 on a missed extra point due to a bad snap and hold.
• W7: Texas A&M
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: Florida State

Well, the Gators finally got unlucky. I have no idea what to make of these guys.

UMass (0-6, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
• W5: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13.
• W6: Lost to Ohio, 58-50.
• W7: Bye
• W8: At USF (canceled)
• W9: Ga Southern
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Bye.

Georgia (6-0, 3-0 SEC, #4)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
• W5: Demoralized Tennessee, 41-0.
• W6: Beat Vanderbilt, 45-14.
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

If there’s any good news here, it’s that these guys got 423 yards rushing against Vandy, which makes the 294 they got in the rout against Tennessee a bit more palatable. The Bulldogs look really, really good. Auburn appears to be the only stumbling block for them, and honestly, it’s beginning to look like they could actually make things interesting against Alabama, especially if they can improve the passing game just a little bit more to complement that run game.

The Vols’ future opponents

10/14/17: South Carolina (4-2, 2-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
• W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
• W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-17.
• W6: Beat Arkansas, 48-22.
• W7: At Tennessee
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At Georgia
• W11: Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: Clemson

Expectations for a Vols win: Well, a 48-22 win over Arkansas was not what I wanted to see. Three touchdowns on defense? Is that good news or bad news? Also, the Gamecocks offense scored on five of eight possessions in the last three quarters. Sigh. I made this a 50/50 game last week, and while I am inclined to change it to give South Carolina the edge this week, I think I’m going to leave it as is.

10/21/17: Alabama (6-0, 3-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
• W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
• W6: Beat Texas A&M, 27-19.
• W7: Arkansas
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: Hey, look! A 26.5-point underdog with a coach on the hot seat just got within eight points of beating Alabama! They are not as good as everybody thinks! I’m moving this game from a 1% chance back to a 5% chance. Woo!

10/28/17: Kentucky (5-1, 2-1 SEC, RV)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
• W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
• W6: Beat Missouri, 40-34.
• W7: Bye
• W8: At Mississippi State
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: To say that the Wildcats outlasted Missouri is really the only way to describe this game. I’m going to keep this one 50/50.

11/4/17: Southern Miss (3-2, 1-1 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to North Texas, 43-28.
• W6: Beat UTSA, 31-29.
• W7: UTEP
• W8: At LA Tech
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: UTSA actually threw a touchdown pass with 48 seconds left in the this one, but failed on the 2-point conversion attempt and lost by two. I’m keeping this one at 55%.

11/11/17: Missouri (1-4, 0-3 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
• W5: Bye
• W6: Lost to Kentucky, 40-34.
• W7: At #15 Georgia
• W8: Idaho
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Before you get too excited about that 1-4 overall and 0-3 SEC record, chew on this: Missouri quarterback threw touchdown passes of 50, 58, and 75 yards against Kentucky. I’m keeping this game at 50/50.

11/18/17: LSU (4-2, 1-1 SEC, RV)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
• W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
• W5: Lost at home, during Homecoming, to Troy, 24-21.
• W6: Beat #21 Florida, 17-16.
• W7: Auburn
• W8: At Ole Miss
• W9: Bye
• W10: At Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: The Tigers rebounded from a home loss to Troy and weathered a developing storm similar to the one bearing down on Knoxville to beat the Gators by a point. The game was essentially decided on a missed extra point, but LSU did appear to get some things figured out on offense. For now, I’m leaving this at 50/50.

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-3 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
• W4: Lost to #1 Alabama, 59-0.
• W5: Lost to #21 Florida, 38-24.
• W6: Lost to #5 Georgia, 45-14.
• W7: At Ole Miss
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: That’s a pretty tough string of four games against ranked opponents for the Commodores, and so I don’t know that it says much about them other than the fact that they are not as good as the teams they just played. So, for now, I’m leaving this one at 50/50, too.

All of that puts me at 6.1 wins, but if I had a two-headed coin, I’d have 9. 🙂

Here are the community results:

This weekend, South Carolina beat Arkansas on the strength of three defensive touchdowns, Alabama survived a scare against Texas A&M, Kentucky beat Missouri by a nose in a sprint, and Vanderbilt gave up more yards on the ground to Georgia than did the Vols.

The Vols didn’t play, but does any of what happened with the Vols’ future opponents change your outlook for the rest of the season? Use our Win Probability Calculator to find your actual expected win total.

How bad was last Saturday’s loss to Georgia from an offensive standpoint? Not only was it the first time the Vols had been shut out since 1994, it was one of the worst performances by a Tennessee offense in yards per play in the last ten years. 2008-17 is a good benchmark as it represents Tennessee’s fall from grace, and because that’s as far back as the numbers from Sports Source Analytics go.

Because we love history more than we love feeling good about ourselves, here’s a look at Tennessee’s ten worst offensive performances in the last ten years in yards per play:

10. 2014:  Florida 10 Tennessee 9 (3.43 yards per play)

Seven snaps in the Florida red zone, and all of them failed to gain a single yard. That led to three field goals and a bitter 10-9 defeat on a day most of us came to Neyland Stadium expecting the Florida streak to fall. The Vols had 29 carries for 28 yards.

9. 2008:  Auburn 14 Tennessee 12 (3.35 yards per play)

While Phillip Fulmer would ultimately go down with the ship, the 2008 Clawfense was its biggest leak. It’s one thing to lose, but another to lose like this:  needing only a field goal to win at #15 Auburn, the Vols started their final four drives at the Auburn 38, UT 42, Auburn 46, and UT 46. They failed to gain a single first down. Jonathan Crompton was 8-of-23 for 67 yards.

8. 2015:  Oklahoma 31 Tennessee 24 (2OT) (3.34 yards per play)

Tennessee led 17-3 at halftime and gained 51 yards on the first two plays of the third quarter to move to the Oklahoma 24 yard line. But after missing a field goal, the Vols punted on their next five drives and gained no more than 11 yards on any of them before bowing out in the second overtime on an interception. Josh Dobbs was 13-of-31 for only 125 yards, and the Vols averaged just 2.9 yards per carry in a heartbreaking loss to an eventual playoff team.

7. 2008:  Wyoming 13 Tennessee 7 (3.27 yards per play)

With Phillip Fulmer’s forced resignation announced earlier in the week, the Clawfense was even more lifeless against the Cowboys. Crompton and Nick Stephens combined to go 14-of-36 for 145 yards and two interceptions in a demoralizing loss to a mid-major in Knoxville.

6. 2011:  South Carolina 14 Tennessee 3 (3.15 yards per play)

Derek Dooley pulled Justin Worley’s redshirt the week before, then gave him the start against the #13 Gamecocks. The Vols got a field goal after South Carolina fumbled a punt on the game’s first series, then never scored again. The Gamecocks also famously scored on a 20-play, 98-yard drive in the second half. Worley was 10-of-26 for 105 yards and two interceptions before giving way to Matt Simms again, who went 5-of-12 for 46 yards.

5. 2011:  Alabama 37 Tennessee 6 (3.10 yards per play)

The week before, the Vols and Crimson Tide were actually tied 6-6 at halftime before Nick Saban’s troops ripped off a 21-point third quarter en route to another 31-point win. Matt Simms was 8-of-17 for 58 yards and an interception, which led to Worley’s entrance…where he handed the ball off.

4. 2014:  Ole Miss 34 Tennessee 3 (3.08 yards per play)

Tennessee’s defense was actually pretty good in this one early against #3 Ole Miss, forcing a three-and-out on six of the Rebels’ first seven drives. But the offense could not keep Justin Worley safe and did literally nothing running the ball:  28 carries, zero yards.

3. 2009:  UCLA 19 Tennessee 15 (2.97 yards per play)

I forgot how bad this one was. Lane Kiffin’s first date with FBS competition did not go well:  Crompton was 13-of-26 for only 93 yards and three interceptions, leaving Montario Hardesty and Bryce Brown to run into a brick wall as the Vols had just 115 yards on 44 carires for 2.6 ypc. Two runs into the middle from 3rd-and-goal at the 3 and 4th-and-goal at the 2 kept the Vols out of the end zone in the fourth quarter and gave UCLA a big win.

2. 2017: Georgia 41 Tennessee 0 (2.73 yards per play)

Last Saturday was the second worst offensive performance of the last decade. Quinten Dormady’s 5-of-16 for 64 yards with two picks was the worst yards per attempt number (4.0) for a Tennessee starter since the number one game on this list, and the 1-for-12 conversion rate on third down (8.3%) the worst of the last ten years. Burn this film.

1. 2016: Alabama 49 Tennessee 10 (2.59 yards per play)

The Vols had 32 carries for 32 yards as injuries riddled the offensive line, scored their only touchdown on an 11-yard drive after a fumble, and were basically out of this thing at halftime even though they were only down 21-7, and had only three plays of 10+ yards before going down 28-7 in the third quarter.

Which one of these is the worst memory? Nowhere to go but up from here!

There’s no Vols game today, of course, but if you’re watching football, here’s the schedule. The first is a shortened list of games that might be of particular interest to Vols fans, and the second is the entire schedule for the day.

Enjoy!

Gameday, October 7

Vols are off, and if you don’t have a Harvest Moon festival to go to, here’s a chance to catch a few good games and get an early look at a few future opponents for the Vols.

Noon slot

Georgia travels to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt at noon. Georgia’s not losing four SEC games this year, so I’m hoping that they look as good against the Commodores as they did against the Vols. I can see an argument for not wanting them to do anything that makes it easier for them to continue to recruit well, but that’s what I’m hoping for at this time.

Afternoon slot

At 3:30, former opponent Florida hosts future opponent LSU, and I’m rooting for LSU, not because I think the Vols can catch them (although, maybe?), but because I just don’t want them to have nice things. I’m also rooting for Arkansas against South Carolina at 4:00. There’s a game between ranked teams in this slot as well, so if you prefer that, have at it.

Evening slot

Alabama takes on Texas A&M at 7:15 and figures to have its way with them, and then two future Vols opponents meet in Lexington as Missouri matches up against Kentucky. Not sure who to pull for in that one, but I guess I’m leaning Missouri.

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 6

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

Last Saturday my wife and I brought our first child home from the hospital. As Tennessee goes, it was a pretty good day to not be paying attention.

It’s been different this week being so insulated from what everyone is saying about the Vols, both the voices I love and the voices that drive me crazy. Sometimes when we speak of “blocking out the noise”, we’re a red-faced kid with his hands in his ears: he may not hear it, but he is entirely focused on it. Maybe it’s healthier to just remove it from the equation and the decision-making process.

Sports are about the moments more than they are about the noise, the talent, or even the win total. Last year we looked at data from Bill Connelly at SB Nation on the best Tennessee teams of the “Decade” of Dominance. In a 13-year span from 1989-2001, Tennessee won four league titles, a national championship, and had the best winning percentage of any team in the SEC. But Connelly’s S&P+ numbers suggested Heath Shuler’s 1993 team was the best of that bunch. They were an exceptionally talented and dangerous football team. They just weren’t as memorable – in large part because their schedule gave them fewer chances to make those moments – as some of their less talented or even less successful Tennessee contemporaries.

One of my favorite tests for what kind of season Tennessee had is, “Did the Vol Network release a season highlight film?” Those years, since Johnny Majors arrived in 1977: 1985, 1987, 1989-90, 1993, 1995-99, 2001, 2003-04, 2006-07. It’s been so long since they had the opportunity, I’m not even sure what format they would sell it on anymore.

Sports are about moments, and not just the ones available to an established program competing for championships. Among the others, some of the most potent are the “we’re back” moments, which is why they come with so many false alarms. You can create a moment in any season, but ultimately the season itself has to be considered a success for that moment to last.

I think this is what has hurt Tennessee and Butch Jones the most these last five years: missed opportunities to score meaningful “we’re back!” wins, then blown opportunities to cash in even bigger moments in could-have-been championship seasons. Positive, lasting memories are outnumbered by moments that should have been or should have lasted.

There have been significant wins, no doubt, some of them bigger and better than anything around here in more than a decade. But when the seasons those moments came in didn’t end well, they traded some percentage of their pleasure for pain. We missed the chance to celebrate being back to competing for championships because there was no defining victory in that process. Then we lost opportunities to look back with nothing but joy on Saturdays that seemed built to last, but didn’t because the Vols didn’t finish the job.

Think about it this way: how many big Tennessee wins in the last five years don’t give you some kind of a “Yeah, but…” feeling?

Not as they were happening; if you’re a, “Yeah, but…” person in the midst of a big win, you need to get out more. But when we look back at them in the context of the entire season?

Last year Tennessee won a game at a NASCAR track, beat Florida for the first time in 11 years in the biggest comeback over a ranked team in Neyland Stadium history, and beat Georgia on a hail mary in the first five weeks of the season (and almost quadrupled down at Texas A&M). It’s not hyperbole to say I’ve never seen a string of moments like that in so few weeks as a Tennessee fan…which still makes it all the more painful when the Vols didn’t capitalize on them the rest of the year. When I go back and watch the second half against Florida or the last play against Georgia, there’s still a small but significant part of me that associates frustration with those games because the Vols didn’t ultimately cash any of it in.

How many significant, non-yeah-but wins for Tennessee in the last five years? How many are only freely and fondly remembered? For me, that list is:

• Josh Dobbs’ coming out party at South Carolina in 2014. Before frantic finishes became so common under Butch Jones, what the Vols did in the final two minutes and what Dobbs did all night were truly remarkable. When Jones throws around that, “We’re x-and-y in the last z games,” statistic, he always starts with this game, and rightfully so. This one holds up as Dobbs’ coming out party and the beginning of Tennessee’s ascent to national relevance.
• The Taxslayer Bowl start-to-finish blowout of Iowa a few weeks later, Tennessee’s first bowl victory in seven years and still probably the most dominant performance a Butch Jones team has had.
• A 45-6 win over #13 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl at the end of the 2015 season, which allowed the floodgates of championship expectations to open wide. This remains Tennessee’s largest margin of victory over a ranked team since 1990.

And I think that’s about it. The 2015 Georgia game might have been Jones’ most important win, but it had such a stop-the-bleeding component it’s hard for me to associate it more strongly in a different context. The 2013 win over #11 South Carolina was important because Jones did something in two months that Derek Dooley never did in three years, but when those Vols failed to earn bowl eligibility the moment faded. And the blessings and burdens of last year are still fresh on our minds, and inform a significant percentage of the conversation about Butch Jones.

Under their head coach, Tennessee has scored both talent and win totals better than anything we’ve seen in a decade, along with some significant individual wins. But what is missing are moments that get to last. Those moments are sport’s most precious commodity. The noise is simply a reflection of their presence or absence.   

Are there still chances for Butch Jones and these Vols to make those moments? Outside of beating Bama, the schedule has turned in a way that we might have called advantageous had the Vols beaten Florida. But now a head coach and his 3-2 team in desperate need of those moments face a whole bunch of opponents they are always expected to beat, plus an LSU squad threatening to join that list. Tennessee could theoretically finish 9-3 – the program’s best regular season since 2007 – and frustration could still be the first word (although a 9-3 finish could lead to an opportunity for one of those kind of moments in a more prestigious bowl). Perhaps Jarrett Guarantano will spark an opportunity. But beyond Tuscaloosa, how much is left in this regular season that will move the needle? This season’s narrative has already shifted from meaningful football to curiosity about the coach. If it’s going to happen for Butch Jones in Knoxville, he will need to do a lot of winning in the next two months to get another chance to make those moments next fall.

I don’t know what John Currie and The Powers That Be at Tennessee are thinking. But I do know, no matter who is on the sideline, Tennessee needs those moments and needs them to last. 

If you’re like me, you’ve probably sleep-walked through this week in a daze. It hasn’t been that long ago that our team was 5-0 to start the 2016 season heading into a pivotal road game against fellow unbeaten Texas A&M nearly midway through last year.

Now, Butch Jones and Kevin Sumlin share the hottest seats in the SEC, perhaps along with Missouri second-year coach Barry Odom. It’s crazy, but the Vols have absolutely lost everything all at once.

Now, you just wonder how long it’s going to take for it to end.

But before all that happens, there’s some football still to be played, beginning with next weekend’s home game against South Carolina. Everybody is going to be curious to see what the Neyland Stadium crowd is like, how receptive they are to Jones and the team and just how the Vols respond to all this adversity, especially against a coach in Will Muschamp who has UT’s number.

Perhaps the biggest question of them all though is who’s going to start at quarterback? If you’re a true UT fan, you still want the Vols to win. And so you want to see what this offense is going to look like with Jarrett Guarantano under center. In the flashes we’ve seen him this year, he hasn’t been good. But you wonder if he prepares differently and how the team responds to him once he has two weeks of work.

Following Quinten Dormady’s early-season struggles, you have to figure the Vols are going to go with Guarantano. After all, he may not be “better” right now, but he’s “different.” And different is what UT needs right now. The Vols have to try something — anything — else to try to find answers.

But I’m cautioning you all: Guarantano isn’t Joshua Dobbs.

Repeat that again with me: Jarrett. Guarantano. Is. Not. Joshua. Dobbs.

I said it all through last season and all through the offseason: All of those UT fans who weren’t sold on Dobbs would realize just how good of a player he was once he’s gone. He wasn’t always the most accurate passer, but he sometimes willed the Vols to wins and kept them in games. This year, quarterback play has been a liability. Do you not think Jones and Co. already would have started Guarantano if he was like Dobbs?

The bottom line is the redshirt freshman is strong-armed, quick-footed and talented. But he is too panicky in the pocket, looks to run too quickly and can’t freelance in the open field the way Dobbs could. He struggles with touch on his passes, and he hasn’t gotten the offense in any sort of rhythm when he’s been on the field.

Will that be any different with him if he starts and if he’s prepared to be a starter? I don’t know, but don’t believe he’s going to come in here and automatically be the savior. There are more things wrong than just the quarterback position. So, it’s hard believing a kid with no experience is going to do away with the doldrums.

Well, let’s move on to the gory details.

Last week was the worst Locks & Keys week of my life. I went 1-7. If you actually bet, I wouldn’t listen to me at all. But after two frustrating weeks (after a hot start) dropped me to 15-18-1, there’s only one thing to do, and that’s pick some winners. Right now, I’m the prognosticating equivalent of the Vols.

I’m awful. Seriously, there’s no excuse for 1-7. You have to try hard to suck that bad. I’m a failure.

Speaking of our team, they’re pretty pitiful. Needless to say, they did nothing last week that we hoped. That’s why they lost 41-0. So, let’s take a look at last week’s keys. They were all failures.

• Make Fromm look like a freshman: There were times throughout much of the first quarter and a half where he absolutely did look like a first-year starter. Then, Fromm settled down, made some throws and show the poise he’s been known for. He was only 7-of-15 for 84 yards, but he didn’t have to do much. He had two rushing scores.
• Slow the big three: Nick Chubb had 109 rushing yards, and the Dawgs controlled the game on the ground. But the numbers weren’t really all that big. They didn’t have to be.
• Remember the rhythm: This was another play-calling failure for new offensive coordinator Larry Scott. It was pathetic.
• Turn ’em over: When UGA turned the ball over, the Vols promptly butt-fumbled it right back to them.
• Band together and coach this team: If anything, it looked like UT quit and it also looks like the Vols have quit playing for Butch. I hope I’m wrong. It doesn’t feel that way right now.

KEYS

You really can’t have any keys in a bye week, but after all the rumors, the embarrassing Touchdown Club trip to Memphis, the recruiting defections, etc., I know a lot of people believe the only key right now is to move in a different direction.

I’ll only say once that I agree; Butch Jones has done the exact opposite of galvanizing the fan base, and though he’s done a lot for this program [whether you feel like giving him credit or not] maybe the next guy needs to do the heavy lifting.

I’m wrestling with those emotions right now, because he’s coming off back-to-back 9-4 seasons. But this thing is so completely broken right now. There is a chance the Vols can get it going back in the right direction, but they’ve shown no signs of it yet.

It kind of makes you wonder if they will.

We’ve read so many times this week that it’s now not a matter of “if” but “when.” The Vols need to take care of business, starting with South Carolina next week, or we’re about to start over. Yet again.

LOCKS

In case you didn’t pay attention, I suck. I’ve got to turn it around, and I will. This week, it’s at least back to .500, and we’re going to try to go over it. Let’s do this.

1. Memphis (-13.5) over UConn: Last week, the fighting Scott Frosts brought Memphis back down to earth. But the Tigers are still very good and can still score a ton of points. The Huskies can’t. This one seems too easy, and it’s gonna be a good start to the weekend with a Friday night win.
2. Maryland (+31) over Ohio State: I don’t care if the Terrapins’ eighth-string quarterback plays, DJ Durkin is finding a way to dial up some points. This Maryland team isn’t bad, and even though they won’t beat the Buckeyes, they’ll keep it within 31. Easily.
3. Washington State (-2.5) over Oregon: I don’t understand this at all. I know it’s at Eugene, but this Ducks team is two weeks removed from losing to Arizona State and just lost starting quarterback Justin Herbert. Mike Leach still getting no love.
4. Georgia (-17) over Vanderbilt: The Commdores are a solid team that will go bowling, but they can’t score against this Bulldogs defense. UGA will be coming off a commitment from 5-star quarterback Justin Fields, and they are undefeated and smelling big things. This won’t be a letdown game.
5. West Virginia (+13.5) over TCU: It’s asking too much for Dana Holgorsen’s team to go to Fort Worth and pull off the upset of a good Horned Frogs team that is hot right now. But Will Grier and Co. will keep it under two touchdowns.
6. Miami (-3.5) over Florida State: The Seminoles are not very good. Miami is, and Mark Richt’s team is going to come out hyped and pour it on FSU. It’ll be thorough.
7. Kentucky (-10.5) over Mizzou: The Wildcats have a tendency to play up or down to their competition, so that makes this a dangerous game, but Barry Odom isn’t going to last long in Columbia, and this UK team is going to score at will on the Tigers.
8. SMU (+6.5) over Houston: Ed Oliver may or may not play, but it won’t matter. Not only will the Mustangs cover, Chad Morris’ 4-1 team will win outright. They are not a bad team, and it won’t be long before Morris is a hot commodity for another program.