Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game Results: Alabama Crimson Tide edition

Finally, some chaos in the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game, as a thunderbolt robs the field of 10 points (except for one lucky player) and a blue shell creates a three-way tie for first.

The full play-by-play is below.

Top 10 as of the end of last week

Daetilus 74
Marietta Vol 59
Josh Farrar 56
Harley 47
Fatso 44
Sam 44
Joel Hollingsworth 42
MitchellK 41
Dave Strunk 40
Jayyyy 39

 

Round 1

Q: Which is greater, Alabama’s rushing yards or Tennessee’s total yards? (5-20 points)

A: Alabama’s rushing yards (5 points) (272 to 108) (Yes, their rushing yards nearly tripled our total yards)

Twelve players get this right and get five points for it.

Mushrooms: Raven17 and Joel Hollingsworth

Bananas: Jayyyy gets both of these.

Blue shells and bolts: None, but the one pending blue shell is still on the move toward the top.

Top 10 after Round 1:

Daetilus 74
Marietta Vol 64
Josh Farrar 61
Joel Hollingsworth 52
Sam 49
Harley 47
Dave Strunk 45
Fatso 44
MitchellK 41
Raven17 41

 

Round 2

Q: When does Tennessee score its next touchdown? (5-30 points)

A: 2nd half (5 points) and 3rd quarter (20 points)

Three players get the safe five points, and one player (Fatso) got the bonus 20 points.

Mushrooms: Sam gets both of these

Bananas: Josh Farrar and MitchellK

Blue shells and bolts: cscott95 draws a thunderbolt, claiming the next question all to himself, and the blue shell continues to move.

Top 10 after Round 2:

Daetilus 74
Marietta Vol 64
Fatso 64
Sam 59
Joel Hollingsworth 57
Josh Farrar 56
Harley 47
Raven17 46
Dave Strunk 45
Evan 39

 

Round 3

Q: What’s the phrase of the day? (10 points)

A: Beat Bama Anyway! (10 points)

Everyone who played would have gotten this right if it weren’t for cscott95’s thunderbolt, but because he did, he’s the only one who gets the 10 points.

Mushrooms: Raven17 and TennVol95.

Bananas: Joel Hollingsworth and Josh Farrar.

Blue shells and bolts: The first blue shell reaches Daetilus at the front and blows him up, taking away 10 points. Another blue shell is released from the back of the pack (of those who played this week).

Top 10 after Round 3:

Daetilus 64
Marietta Vol 64
Fatso 64
Sam 59
Joel Hollingsworth 52
Josh Farrar 51
Raven17 51
Harley 47
Dave Strunk 45
TennVol95 43

 

Full table

Player Prior Prior Specials R1 R1 Sub R1 Specials R1 Total R2 R2 Sub R2 Specials R2 Total R3 R3 Sub R3 Specials R3 Total
Daetilus 74 74 74 74 74 74 -10 64
Marietta Vol 59 5 64 64 64 64 64 64
Fatso 44 44 44 20 64 64 64 64
Sam 44 5 49 49 49 10 59 59 59
Joel Hollingsworth 42 5 47 5 52 5 57 57 57 -5 52
Josh Farrar 56 5 61 61 61 -5 56 56 -5 51
Raven17 36 36 5 41 5 46 46 46 5 51
Harley 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
Dave Strunk 40 5 45 45 45 45 45 45
TennVol95 38 38 38 38 38 38 5 43
Evan 34 5 39 39 39 39 39 39
MitchellK 41 41 41 41 -5 36 36 36
LTVol99 31 31 31 5 36 36 36 36
Jayyyy 39 5 44 -10 34 34 34 34 34
PaVol 32 32 32 32
Will Shelton 26 BLUE SHELL 5 31 31 31 31 31 31
RandyH 24 5 29 29 29 29 29 29
Oleg Zeltser 28 28 28 28
Phil 28 28 28 28
Alyas Grey 26 26 26 26
RockyTopinKY 26 26 26 26
vfl_mks 22 22 22 22
cscott95 7 5 12 12 12 THUNDERBOLT 12 10 22 22
Packtar 13 13 13 13
Displaced_Vol_Fan 7 5 12 12 12 12 12 12
PaVolFan 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10
hoosiervol 9 9 9 9
NJ Vol 8 8 8 8
RockyTop5 8 8 8 8
charles matthews 7 7 7 7 7 7 BLUE SHELL 7
GoVols365 6 6 6 6
nelsona350 6 6 6 6
Bulldog 85 5 5 5 5
driskigm 5 5 5 5
Gr82baTNVol 5 5 5 5
Jason 5 5 5 5
Rockytop01 5 5 5 5
btpenley 4 4 4 4
wreckvol 4 4 4 4
Drew 3 3 3 3
BibleVol 1 1 1 1
Craig 1 1 1 1
Larry Hildebrand 1 1 1 1
utkjmitch 1 1 1 1
GTZW 0 0 0 0
Volfaninsc 0 0 0 0

Alabama 45, Tennessee 7: This is Not OK

 

Remember when there was such a thing as Tennessee Pride?

Now, it’s just sausage.

Our hopes have been ground up yet again. We were reduced to hoping for moral victories against Alabama, just wanting the Vols to cover the spread. Or, in some extreme cases, wanting a lopsided margin “for the betterment of the program” that results in head coach Butch Jones getting fired. It’s not the way you want to spend a season.

What we got Saturday was embarrassment yet again in a spread-covering, lopsided 45-7 win by Alabama that saw them rest starting quarterback Jalen Hurts for almost the entire second half.

They didn’t need him. Tennessee’s offense wasn’t scoring a single touchdown, much less overcoming what was then a 28-0 deficit.

Ho-hum. The only thing that happened was what was expected all along.

The only threat for a marquee opponent playing UT these days is a potential injury. The Vols have been reduced to back-page news.

There was once a time, seems like centuries ago, when Tennessee and Alabama played to epic duals. Legends were forged under the haze of cigar smoke on the Third Saturday in October. The nation tuned in. Polls were affected. Championships won.

That’s still happening these days. Unfortunately for the Vols, it’s only happening for Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide.

What was once considered a rivalry is now just another speed bump on the highway to More Important Games for UA. There are plenty of those these days for Alabama, which is now on an 11-game winning streak over a Tennessee team that, again in Year 5 of Butch Jones’ tenure, looks like a helicopter dropped it right back in the wilderness where the Vols wandered for years in the final few of Phillip Fulmer, the eventful-but-unfruitful 2009 hiccup of Lane Kiffin and the entire Derek Dooley era.

When the Vols seemingly punched in the football for a John Kelly touchdown to make it look a tiny bit more respectable in the fourth quarter against the Tide on Saturday, there was at least a glimmer of something upon which to build. Instead, replays showed Kelly was short. Then Trey Smith jumped for a false start, Kelly ran for a short gain and Jarrett Guarantano threw an interception.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2017 Tennessee Volunteers!

They’ve still not scored an offensive touchdown now in 14 quarters dating back to the second 15 minutes of the UMass game. That was 28 days ago. The only blip on the scoreboard against the Tide was a 97-yard interception return by backup linebacker Daniel Bituli.

That made the score 28-7. And, guess what? You cheered. You maybe even stood up. It was exciting. I did.

That’s just sad.

I live in Alabama, and I care more about this game than any other game in any other sport, and I can’t get excited for it anymore. You can talk all you want to about Saban’s dominance and all the championships the Tide have won and the machine that has been built in Tuscaloosa. All of that is viable and true.

But it isn’t the reason why Tennessee is now a laughingstock.

The day started with Tim Tebow — TIM FREAKING TEBOW — giving the Vols a back-handed pep talk on a morning college football show. Listening to Gary Danielson and Brad Nessler attempt to pay UT compliments on national television sound like trying to judge Charlie Weis in a beauty contest.

It isn’t OK what this program now is in Jones’ fifth year. Something has to change. I’m not sure about how much money Tennessee saves depending on when the timing of the decision is, but every single weekend, we have to sit in our chairs, turn on college football shows and hear every single commentator talk about how bad Tennessee is, how Butch has lost the team and how the Vols have to make a change.

None of us WANTED this, but then we watch the Vols play actual football [or something vaguely resembling it] and you see that it really has to happen. You can’t worry about recruiting, because, now, the only things that truly matter are player development and game day coaching. Neither of which are happening the way they should within the program right now.

There are two elite teams in the SEC: Alabama and Georgia. Tennessee has lost to those teams a combined 86-7. That isn’t getting closer to being competitive. It’s simply called regression.

There are two other mid-level teams the Vols have played within their division, and they lost to Florida and South Carolina on the final plays of the game. As the rest of the season unfolds, there will be more losses. So, it’s a matter of when you make the ultimate decision and how much money the powers that be will spend to make this program great again.

For those who didn’t watch this game or are just seeing the scores run across the bottom of the screen, Saturday’s 45-7 loss to Alabama looks like the embarrassing blowout that it indeed was. But there are players at UT; there are puzzle pieces who just need to be molded, coached, developed, disciplined.

Shawn Shamburger hasn’t hardly played at all this year, and he looked aggressive on Saturday in his first career start, getting beat his share of times but flashing a lot, too. Bituli still can’t stay on the field all the time even though UT’s defense is so much better with him on it. We still have him three more years. Somebody just needs to help him realize the unlimited, NFL potential he has.

John Kelly is a warrior. Guarantano has so many exciting, raw skills even though he hasn’t come close to putting everything together yet. You can see it there, but it’s just under the surface, needing somebody to unlock it.

Nobody ever gave Tennessee a chance on Saturday. The No. 1 reason is because nobody had any confidence that Butch Jones and his coaching staff could put the Vols in a position to win. This offense is broken, and it cannot be fixed. It can’t be successful in the SEC.

Recruits are dropping. Players are fighting. Other players are leaving. And the losses are piling up. They’re coming in all shapes and sizes, with increasing levels of frustration and futility.

I’m proud to be a Tennessee Vol. I’m proud of my program, proud of my school, proud of the players, proud of the stadium and proud of the traditions. But you know what traditions are? They’re things that happened in the past.

I need to be proud of the product that’s put on the field week in and week out, and I’m not. This is a shadow of what Tennessee football is supposed to be.

Somebody fix it.

Tennessee-Alabama online game-watching party

The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Tuscaloosa today to take on the vaunted #1 Alabama Crimson Tide at 3:30. It’s the CBS Game of the Week.

Alabama is reportedly now a 37-point favorite. They have more talent. They have better coaching. Every number that matters is crimson.

But take heart. Be of good courage. Show some effort. Care.

It’s time to show the right kind of pride in Tennessee football.

Go Vols.

Oh say, can you see?

The Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: Beat Bama Anyway edition

Time to play the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you have no idea what that is, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

 

Good luck, and Go Vols!

 

How far can the defense carry Tennessee?

We all know the line and the lack of touchdowns; anything Tennessee’s offense does well against Alabama’s top-tier defense should be considered a gift. But what about Tennessee’s defense?

It continues to be in the program’s best interests for Team 121 to figure itself out before it becomes Team 122, no matter who the coach is. Getting the offense back on track deserves the headlines, but the idea also applies to a defense returning a wealth of experience. The early conversation on Bob Shoop’s unit centered on sub-par performances against unique rushing offenses and a catastrophic failure on the final play at Florida. Since then, the volume of the larger conversations on Butch Jones and offensive failure has overwhelmed a quieter truth:  Tennessee’s defense has become fairly reliable.

Thirty-six percent of Florida’s 380 yards came on two plays in the final 11 minutes. The Vols held Georgia to 5.25 yards per play; only Notre Dame’s defense has done better against the Bulldogs this year. Then the Vols held South Carolina to 5.05 yards per play, with 52% of their 323 yards coming on two drives in the third and fourth quarter.

Is the worst thing about Tennessee’s defense…Tennessee’s offense? The Vols gave up those two drives to the Gamecocks around three three-and-outs and a five-and-out. Tennessee’s defense still struggles with depth due to injury, especially at linebacker, and can be worn down late in the game.

But the Vol defense is pretty good at preventing big plays.

Tennessee is currently 29th nationally in 10+ yard plays allowed, and 22nd nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed. Last year the Vols finished 115th and 113th in those two categories. In the advanced metrics at Football Study Hall, the Vol defense is second nationally in preventing explosive plays.

Tennessee’s defense still wears the scars of the Georgia Tech game, as well as those late, long drives against South Carolina. The Vols allow 5.11 yards per carry on the year, 114th nationally. But the Vols are 35th nationally in yards per passing attempt allowed, and would be even higher if not for the hail mary at Florida.

Tennessee’s third down conversions also suffer due to late game fatigue: the Vols allow conversions on 43% of third downs, 101st nationally. This may be the statistic most impacted by the performance of the Vol offense. And as good as the defense is at preventing big plays, it is equally as bad if not worse in the red zone: 20 opponent trips have resulted in 19 scores, 124th nationally.

Will any of this trend positive against Alabama? I’m not sure, but the defense’s performance will be the most interesting thing to watch on Saturday. And that may continue beyond this week:  with a more manageable schedule after this weekend, how far might the Vol defense carry this team the rest of the way, and how much might that impact the outlook on this team in 2018?

Tennessee’s Locks & Keys Week 8: The Bloodbath

 

There’s really nothing that can be said by now that hasn’t already been said, and there’s not much we can do about this weekend, either.

More than likely, unless Tennessee pulls off one of the biggest upsets in school history, the Vols are going to be 3-4 with an embarrassing loss at the hands of the hated Alabama Crimson Tide. UT is a 37-point underdog, which pretty much tells you all you know about what this coaching regime has become.

Now, head coach Butch Jones will try to have his team pull off the improbable and take him from lame-duck status to an up-in-the-air, tenuous situation at best. With the way the fans have responded to UT’s fifth-year coach in the past few weeks, it’s difficult to see any scenario where he is the coach next year. The timing of when that happens is anybody’s guess.

But, for now, Jones is the head coach of our Vols. It would be great if we could all treat him as such and pull for this team this weekend against the top-ranked team in the country. If you’re a fan, you’re a fan through thick and thin. And it hasn’t been this thin in a while, dating back to Jones’ first year and the season-ending, losing year-clinching loss to Vanderbilt.

Last weekend, UT fell to .500 with a 15-9 loss at home to a bad South Carolina team that was missing its top receiver and was running its third-string running back. Yet, Brandon Johnson couldn’t catch a rifled fourth-down pass by Jarrett Guarantano as time expired, and the Vols expired. Again.

A big reason is because only one of my keys was met, and even that is debatable. Let’s look.

  • Put Guarantano in position to be successful: Again, the first two games of offensive coordinator Larry Scott’s tenure was extremely misleading. He’s been bad since. Really bad. In Jarrett Guarantano’s first career start, he had just 133 passing yards and -2 rushing yards. They didn’t roll him out of the pocket enough. They didn’t do quick-hitters enough. They didn’t use the middle of the field enough. A lot of that is UT’s receivers look uncoached. But the whole offense is discombobulated. FAIL.
  • Block out the noise: Tennessee seemed to respond very well to start the game, coming out of the gates playing with passion. The offense has deep-rooted problems unrelated to all the buzz off the field, but they’re a major reason why there’s buzz in the first place. Still, this team looked largely unaffected. SUCCESS!
  • Find some heroes: Johnson had the chance to be one. So did Johnson. So did a defensive line that got to face A.J. Turner as SCAR’s RB instead of Rico Dowdle. Exactly nobody stepped up. FAIL.
  • Play a full game: After an inspired start, the Vols made zero halftime adjustments. Before the final drive, they had -7 total yards. The defense couldn’t stop the cutback on the inside zone. It’s just a poorly coached team all the way around. FAIL
  • Get to Bentley: UT sacked him once. Ho-hum. FAIL

When it came to the locks, we’re back on track. We went 6-2 last week and after that atrocious 1-7 week where we were horrid, we’ve gone 11-5 in the last two weeks. That’s SKRONG, as Jameis Winston would say.

But before we get to this week’s hot picks, let’s look at the keys to beating Alabama.

KEYS

Now, we have to move onto Alabama. God help us all. It’s going to get ugly, and it’s probably going to get there quickly. If you’re a Tennessee fan, pretty much the only thing to root for is for the Vols to beat the spread, and then for what you want to happen — whatever that is — after the game.

Petition the SEC to play 14 players on both sides at once

This is the No. 9 scoring offense and the 15th-ranked overall offense in the country the Vols are facing this week, and Alabama would be even better if it kept its starters in the game longer than three quarters.

The Tide don’t have to.

Defensively, there’s more speed and talent all over the field than any team in the country.

This is going to be bad for the Vols. I really don’t see any way it isn’t. If Tennessee plays its best game and Alabama plays its worst, it’s still a double-digit loss without some game-changing plays. Obviously, you have to play 11-on-11. It’s just hard seeing the Vols have a chance to win if they have to play by the rules, which, unfortunately, they will.

Only Alabama gets away with breaking the rules in Tuscaloosa.

(See what I did there? Man, that’s a good setup…)

Hurts (Not) So Good

Everybody loves to talk about the ways Jalen Hurts struggles. There aren’t a lot of people who talk about just what kind of next-level dimension the sophomore signal-caller brings to an offense that was already very good.

First-year coordinator Brian Daboll has done a good job of putting Hurts in position to make plays, and a lot of times, when plays aren’t there, Hurts creates them with his feet. The Vols have to make him be a dropback passer, spy him and take away the run. Nobody else has been successful doing it, and UT has been anything but disciplined in its run lanes this year. But the Vols have to find something in this game.

Or Hurts will crush them. He did last year as a true freshman.

Four Turnovers

Tennessee is next-to-last in the league in turnover differential and tied for ninth in takeaways. That’s terrible. The Vols need to somehow turn into an opportunistic unit and get FOUR turnovers to have a chance to win this game.

Yes, that’s a tall order. It’s going to take some tall orders for the Vols to win this game. They’ve got to do some crazy things. Whatever it takes. They have to create extra possessions and take advantage of those possessions. They also have to play a clean, mistake-free game themselves. Then, maybe it can happen.

Maybe.

Berry Merry Return Game

He hasn’t played since the season opener, but Tennessee dynamic returner Evan Berry may play against the Crimson Tide. That’s a huge X-factor for the Vols.

It doesn’t matter who they play, Berry is capable of taking kicks to the house. Given how horrible the Vols offense has been, Tennessee needs to generate points in other ways. Berry taking one back for six would be a great manufactured touchdown. If there’s any way possible he can play, Butch Jones needs to get Berry on the field.

He’s a difference-maker in a game where the Vols simply don’t have many.

Game of their Life

Hey, stranger things have happened, right?

I mean, not much stranger. But there have been some strange things happen.

The team we’ve watched this year in orange were fortunate to beat UMass. They’re 3-4, and they’re about to fire their coach. That team may lose 70-0 to Alabama.

But this UT team is better than the UT team we’ve seen. There comes a point in time when it becomes more than a game. It’s about pride. Whether the Vols play for Jones, play for each other or play to prove everybody wrong, it’s time they played for something. They’ve got to play the best game imaginable to beat Alabama in this game.

Go make a memory.

LOCKS

Hey! Break up the me’s! I’m awesome! 11-5 in the past two weeks, and all of a sudden, I’m 26-23-1 on the year. That’s pretty good. We’ve rallied after that 1-7 week, and now, we’re back on track.

For the most part, we were really seeing things well last week. The bad loss was picking UCLA to beat Arizona, and the Bruins lost 47-30. So, yeah, that sucked. But the other loss was Michigan State, who were 4.5 favorites over Minnesota and won 30-27. The Spartans were dominating that game and allowed 17 unanswered points to close the game. Man, that one should have been a win.

Other than that — SKRONG. West Virginia covered against Texas Tech, North Carolina State handled Pitt to cover 11.5, TCU hammered Kansas State on the road, Navy and Memphis were waaaaaaay under 75.5, and we got lucky in the UCLA under as that covered by a half a point in a barn burner. There you have it. 6-2.

We’re winning money. You know, if it were legal and all. At the very least, we’re helping you make your picks in your fantasy college football leagues. Let’s keep it up, shall we?

  1. Purdue -9 over Rutgers. All Purdue does is win money. It’s like Vegas still doesn’t respect Jeff Brohm and the Boilermakers. I sure do, and I’m riding them to the bank every week. They covered easily against Wisconsin last week in a loss, and they will this week in a win.
  2. Syracuse +17 over Miami. I don’t get this at all. The Orange aren’t bad. They aren’t as good as they were when they upset Clemson last Friday night. But the Hurricanes are the worst undefeated team out there. Dino Babers will have his team ready. It will lose, but it’ll be close.
  3. UCF -7.5 over Navy. This is my favorite BY FAR of the week. Navy couldn’t stop Memphis last weekend, and UCF’s offense is a lot better than the Tigers. UCF’s defense is better, too. This will be a double-digit win.
  4. SMU -8.5 over Cincinnati. Luke Fickell is going to turn around the Bearcats, but it isn’t this year. Chad Morris is doing a good job in Dallas, and the Mustangs score too many points for the Bearcats to hang. It won’t be as bad as the UCF game, but SMU will win by double digits.
  5. South Florida -12.5 over Tulane. The Green Wave is having a nice return-to-respectability season. But Charlie Strong has the Bulls playing well. Tulane won’t have an answer for Quinton Flowers and Co.
  6. West Virginia -9 over Baylor. Much like Purdue, all the Mountaineers do is win money. Now, they’re playing winless Baylor and not even getting 10 points. I don’t get it.
  7. Georgia Tech -5.5 over Wake Forest. Wake isn’t offensively inept like it has been in the past, but I’m not sure the Demon Deacons will have an answer for the option. This GT team should have beaten Miami. It will take out its frustrations against the Deacs.
  8. Oklahoma -12.5 over Kansas State. The Wildcats get too much respect for a mediocre team. The Sooners are much better, and they’ll win by more than two touchdowns on the road. Book it.

Tennessee vs. Alabama Statsy Preview: #BeatBamaAnyway, with a heaping dose of rat poison

The Tennessee Volunteers are a 34-point underdog to the Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend, and for good reason. The Crimson Tide look like they just keep getting better and better. They are more talented. They are Top 10 in six of twelve defensive statistical categories, including first in rushing defense, second in scoring defense, and fourth in total defense.

And Tennessee’s offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in more than two full games.

#BeatBamaAnyway

We’ve delved into the stats and stared into the eyes of the devil. I don’t care what Nick Saban says, these guys are good. Here’s what we found.

Alabama’s schedule (7-0, 4-0 SEC, #1)

  • W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
  • W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
  • W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
  • W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
  • W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
  • W6: Beat Texas A&M, 27-19.
  • W7: Beat Arkansas, 41-9.
  • W8: #25 Tennessee
  • W9: Bye
  • W10: #12 LSU
  • W11: At Mississippi State
  • W12: Mercer
  • W13: At #13 Auburn

That schedule to date is ranked as the nation’s 38th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is ranked 51st.

Stats

Alabama features the best rushing defense, the best scoring defense, and the best scoring offense the Vols have seen all year. Either sit down or hold on to something before reading on.

#BeatBamaAnyway

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 134.7 rushing yards per game, and Alabama is giving up only 66.7 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Alabama, is Georgia, which is giving up 82.1 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 62 against them. To date, Tennessee has played no one better against the run than Alabama. I do think that having Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback may be worth another 10-20 yards rushing, so put me down for 80 rushing yards for Tennessee against Alabama.

Alabama rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 242.8 rushing yards per game, while the Alabama run game is averaging 302.6 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is once again Georgia, which is getting 282.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 294 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech, which is averaging 362.0 rushing yards per game and got 535 against Tennessee. A modest reasonable goal for the Vols this weekend would be to hold the Tide to their average on the ground like the Vols did against Georgia, and so I’m going with Alabama getting about 300 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense. It will feel like 500.

#BeatBamaAnyway

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 185.3 passing yards per game, and Alabama is allowing 187.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is giving up 211.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 259 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech. They’re allowing 186.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 221 against them. Based on all of that, I’m going to go with Tennessee putting up the averages this weekend and getting about 185 passing yards.

Alabama passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 129.2 passing yards per game. Alabama is getting 182.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 181.3 yards per game through the air, and they got 212 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 226.4 passing yards per game and got 129 against Tennessee. I’m going with Alabama putting up about 170 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 21.7 points per game, and Alabama is allowing 10.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is allowing 12.6 points per game, and they goose-egged Tennessee. Tennessee has not played anyone better than Alabama in this category. The Vols have not scored a touchdown in more than two full games, and they are now playing the stingiest defense they’ve faced all season. Regardless, I think that the rivalry aspect of this game will somehow kick in and result in six or seven points. Officially, I’m going with 7 points for the Vols.

Alabama scoring

Tennessee is allowing 23.8 points per game. Alabama is averaging 42.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 37.6 points, and they got 41 against Tennessee. In addition to being the stingiest defense the Vols have played this year, Alabama also has the highest-scoring offense they’re seen so far.

This is the most difficult thing in the matchup to predict, I think. The thing is, Tennessee’s defense isn’t terrible this year. It’s just that the offense is struggling so much that the defense ends up looking worse than it is. With two exceptions, the Vols have held all opponents to under 26 points, 20 if you discount that last play against Florida. And one of the exceptions was a double-overtime game. And yet, that still leaves the last exception: Georgia put up 41, and honestly, Alabama looks just like Georgia except even better. The Tide are basically scoring 41 points in every game they play. Texas A&M gave them a good game and held them to 27, but Alabama also averaged over 60 points against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt.

Honestly, I think the range here is a vast, gaping chasm with teeth, something like 32-60. I’m going to split the difference and call it 45 points for Bama.

#BeatBamaAnyway

SUMMARY

Tennessee rushing yards: 80

Alabama rushing yards: 300

Tennessee passing yards: 185

Alabama passing yards: 170

Tennessee points: 7

Alabama points: 45

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Alabama 33, Tennessee 7 and covering the spread.

#BeatBamaAnyway

Current betting lines and other statistical models

The SPM is more optimistic than Vegas, as the current spread is between 35 and 36.5, with an over/under of 50.5-51.5. That makes it look like Alabama, 43-8 or so.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 2.1% chance of beating the Tide, and S&P+ gives them a 5% chance, setting the game at Alabama, 39.1-10.9. So both S&P+ and the SPM like the Vols to cover this week. Of course, computers don’t know when wheels are about to come off.

What does Alabama do especially well?

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Okay, so they’re going to run the ball. No surprise there. If there is a surprise, it’s that the run game is actually not very well balanced out by the passing game. So sell out to stop the run. It may not matter a great deal, but maybe it makes the difference between 300 and 200 rushing yards.

Defensive observations. Sheesh. First in the nation in rushing defense. Second in scoring defense. Fourth in total, fifth in interceptions. Top 10 in two other categories. No worse than 55th in anything. Top 25 in all but two categories. This presents a huge dilemma for the Vols, as their strength is John Kelly and the run game. Alabama is going to take that away and make you want to pass, but is that something that the Vols can actually do? And even if they can, do they really want to do that, make the game longer, and give the Alabama offense more time on the field against a tired defense? If you’re looking for answers, or even ideas, well, I’ll have to get back to you.

Special teams, Turnovers, and Penalties observations. Oh, and they don’t turn the ball over, either. Great.

#BeatBamaAnyway

The Gameplan

Honestly, we’re looking at a huge David vs. Goliath matchup here, which means employing some non-traditional thinking. Once upon a time, Lane Kiffin used this strategy to nearly upset Alabama. It doesn’t mean you’re not playing to win; it’s recognizing that your best chance to win is to first make it close, and making it close means reducing the number of plays because they have an advantage in each and every one of them. Do something unexpected. Fake something. Take more risks on fourth down. Hit them with a rock in the forehead.

On defense, I think you absolutely sell out 100% to limiting Alabama’s run game, live with any passes down the field, and also redefine success so that you can keep your mind right all the way to the end of the game. Don’t get discouraged by them still succeeding running the ball against an all-out sell-out. Just make it more difficult than what they’re used to and see if maybe they get frustrated.

On offense, I don’t know. I think I’d still focus on running the ball even against the nation’s best run defense because it’s the only way to shorten the game. Alabama is better than Tennessee, and the longer the game, the more it will get out of hand. Get your defense as much rest as you can and start early. Use the entire play clock in between every play beginning with the very first one. Try to frustrate them by making them impatient, by making it excrutiatingly slow. Even if you end up going 3-and-out, at least you’ve maximized the rest for your defense and shortened the game, thereby maximizing the possibility that something crazy will happen and that it might make a difference.

Alabama is a 34-point favorite in this game, and for good reason.

#BeatBamaAnyway


Last Week

Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and South Carolina two weeks ago.

Prediction Score Rushing Yards Passing Yards Total Yards
Tennessee 21 165 215 380
South Carolina 27 150 220 370

 

Actual Results Score Rushing Yards Passing Yards Total Yards
Tennessee 9 120 133 253
South Carolina 15 194 129 323

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Tennessee -3.5, and the SPM picked South Carolina to win outright, so yes, the SPM won in Vegas this week.

College Football TV Schedule and Rooting Guide for Vols fans: Week 8

After some sideline-watching Thursday and Friday and a noon-slate of appetizers, the Vols travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide at 3:30 on CBS. The evening then features a couple of big national-interest games.

Here’s the Week 8 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what’s at stake in each game from the perspective of a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols! Beat Bama Anyway!

Thursday, October 19

Thursday, October 19, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV Why How Root for
UL Lafayette at Arkansas State 7:30 PM ESPNU Blake Anderson Channel hop Something interesting
(25) Memphis at Houston 8:00 PM ESPN Mike Norvell Channel hop Something interesting

 

In case you suddenly find yourself interested in coaches, well, here are a couple.

Friday, October 20

Friday, October 20, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV Why How Root for
Air Force at Nevada 9:30 PM CBSSN Troy Calhoun Channel hop Something interesting
Colorado State at New Mexico 10:15 PM ESPN2 Mike Bobo Channel hop Something interesting

 

Didn’t get your fill Thursday? Try again Friday!

Gameday, October 21

Get yourself your favorite pizza and settle in for a handful of noon appetizers, and then get ready for the big one at 3:30.

Saturday, October 21, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV Why How Root for
NOON
Iowa State at Texas Tech Noon FS1 It's football? Channel hop An exciting game
Louisville at Florida State Noon ESPN It's football? Channel hop An exciting game
Maryland at (5) Wisconsin Noon FOX It's football? Channel hop An exciting game
(10) Oklahoma State at Texas Noon ABC It's football? Channel hop An exciting game
AFTERNOON
Tennessee at (1) Alabama 3:30 PM CBS GO VOLS Live BEAT BAMA ANYWAY!
Kentucky at Mississippi State 4:00 PM SECN Future opponent DVR Discuss
EVENING
(19) Michigan at (2) Penn State 7:30 PM ABC Big game Channel hop An exciting game
(11) USC at (13) Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBC Big game Channel hop An exciting game

 

Noon slot

I don’t know. Something interesting could happen here. And if not, you still have your pizza.

Afternoon slot

Go Vols! Beat Bama Anyway!

Evening slot

You may need to just sit in a chair and stare at the TV Saturday night, so what better way to do it than with a couple of games of national interest?

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 8

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

Thursday, October 19, 2017 Friday, Sept. 29, 2017 Friday, Sept. 29, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV
UL Lafayette at Arkansas State 7:30 PM ESPNU
(25) Memphis at Houston 8:00 PM ESPN
Friday, October 20, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV
WKU at Old Dominion 6:00 PM CBSSN
Marshall at Middle Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPN2
Air Force at Nevada 9:30 PM CBSSN
Colorado State at New Mexico 10:15 PM ESPN2
Saturday, October 21, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV
Akron at Toledo Noon Raycom/ESPN3
Idaho at Missouri Noon SECN
Iowa at Northwestern Noon ESPN2
Iowa State at Texas Tech Noon FS1
Louisville at Florida State Noon ESPN
Maryland at (5) Wisconsin Noon FOX
(10) Oklahoma State at Texas Noon ABC
Purdue at Rutgers Noon BTN
Temple at Army Noon CBSSN
Tulsa at UConn Noon ESPNU
Pittsburgh at Duke Noon ACCN
Boston College at Virginia 12:30 PM RSN
Kent State at Ohio 2:00 PM ESPN3
NIU at Bowling Green 2:00 PM ESPN3
Troy at Georgia State 2:00 PM ESPN3
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan 2:00 PM ESPN3
Buffalo at Miami, OH 2:30 PM ESPN3
Central Michigan at Ball State 3:00 PM ESPN3
Arizona State at Utah 3:30 PM FS1
Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State 3:30 PM ESPN3
Georgia Southern at UMass 3:30 PM 11 Sports/NESN
Illinois at Minnesota 3:30 PM BTN
Indiana at (18) Michigan State 3:30 PM ABC
North Carolina at (14) Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ESPN2
Syracuse at (8) Miami, FL 3:30 PM ESPN
Tennessee at (1) Alabama 3:30 PM CBS
(20) UCF at Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
Kentucky at Mississippi State 4:00 PM SECN
(9) Oklahoma at Kansas State 4:00 PM FOX
Oregon at UCLA 4:00 PM Pac-12N
SMU at Cincinnati 4:00 PM ESPNU
North Texas at Florida Atlantic 5:00 PM ESPN3
ULM at South Alabama 5:00 PM ESPN3
Utah State at UNLV 6:00 PM ATTSNRM
UAB at Charlotte 6:30 PM beIN SPORTS
BYU at East Carolina 7:00 PM CBSSN
Rice at UTSA 7:00 PM KMYS/Stadium
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech 7:00 PM Stadium
(16) USF at Tulane 7:00 PM ESPN2
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech 7:30 PM ESPNU
(21) Auburn at Arkansas 7:30 PM SECN
(24) LSU at Ole Miss 7:15 PM ESPN
(19) Michigan at (2) Penn State 7:30 PM ABC
(11) USC at (13) Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBC
Arizona at California 8:00 PM Pac-12N
Kansas at (4) TCU 8:00 PM FOX
(23) West Virginia at Baylor 8:00 PM FS2
Wyoming at Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN2
Fresno State at San Diego State 10:30 PM CBSSN
Colorado at (15) Washington State 10:45 PM ESPN

Tennessee-Alabama starters by class and recruiting rankings

We’ve been posting side-by-side charts comparing starters’ recruiting rankings for a few weeks now. It will come as no surprise to anyone to learn that this week’s chart shows that Alabama’s starting lineup features much more talent (as measured by recruiting rankings) than does Tennessee’s. A major caveat is, of course, required here, as the correlation between recruiting rankings a team’s or player’s success on the field is both not exact and full of outliers. Coaching matters, too, you know.

Here’s the side-by-side projected starters for this week’s game between the Vols and the Crimson Tide, with each players’ class and recruiting rankings. If you can’t see the entire chart embedded below, click here for full page:

As before, the color codes are based on the range of 247 Composite numbers on the list. The range starts with deep green at the top and ends with deep red at the bottom.

Here’s the list of starters, sorted by recruiting ranking (full page here):

Observations

  • You may be as surprised as I am to learn that Tennessee has two of the three highest-rated players in this matchup. Defensive tackle Kahlil McKenzie and offensive lineman Trey Smith are both not only 5-star guys, they are high 5-star guys. McKenzie is rated higher than Alabama’s highest-rated player.
  • You are probably as unsurprised as I am to learn that Alabama has seven of the nine highest-rated players in this game. After McKenzie and Smith, Alabama has the next six highest-rated players, all of them 5-stars.
  • Alabama’s probable starting lineup has only two 3-star players, but remarkably, also has two former walk-ons. Can you imagine the gumption it takes to walk on at Alabama? High five to linebacker Jamey Mosley and cornerback Levi Wallace. Not only are they both former walk-ons, neither of them had a recruiting rating out of high school.
  • The stars breakdown:
    • 5-stars: Alabama 7, Tennessee 2
    • 4-stars: Alabama 11, Tennessee 9
    • 3-stars: Alabama 2, Tennessee 10
    • No rating: Alabama 2, Tennessee 1