We all know the line and the lack of touchdowns; anything Tennessee’s offense does well against Alabama’s top-tier defense should be considered a gift. But what about Tennessee’s defense?

It continues to be in the program’s best interests for Team 121 to figure itself out before it becomes Team 122, no matter who the coach is. Getting the offense back on track deserves the headlines, but the idea also applies to a defense returning a wealth of experience. The early conversation on Bob Shoop’s unit centered on sub-par performances against unique rushing offenses and a catastrophic failure on the final play at Florida. Since then, the volume of the larger conversations on Butch Jones and offensive failure has overwhelmed a quieter truth:  Tennessee’s defense has become fairly reliable.

Thirty-six percent of Florida’s 380 yards came on two plays in the final 11 minutes. The Vols held Georgia to 5.25 yards per play; only Notre Dame’s defense has done better against the Bulldogs this year. Then the Vols held South Carolina to 5.05 yards per play, with 52% of their 323 yards coming on two drives in the third and fourth quarter.

Is the worst thing about Tennessee’s defense…Tennessee’s offense? The Vols gave up those two drives to the Gamecocks around three three-and-outs and a five-and-out. Tennessee’s defense still struggles with depth due to injury, especially at linebacker, and can be worn down late in the game.

But the Vol defense is pretty good at preventing big plays.

Tennessee is currently 29th nationally in 10+ yard plays allowed, and 22nd nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed. Last year the Vols finished 115th and 113th in those two categories. In the advanced metrics at Football Study Hall, the Vol defense is second nationally in preventing explosive plays.

Tennessee’s defense still wears the scars of the Georgia Tech game, as well as those late, long drives against South Carolina. The Vols allow 5.11 yards per carry on the year, 114th nationally. But the Vols are 35th nationally in yards per passing attempt allowed, and would be even higher if not for the hail mary at Florida.

Tennessee’s third down conversions also suffer due to late game fatigue: the Vols allow conversions on 43% of third downs, 101st nationally. This may be the statistic most impacted by the performance of the Vol offense. And as good as the defense is at preventing big plays, it is equally as bad if not worse in the red zone: 20 opponent trips have resulted in 19 scores, 124th nationally.

Will any of this trend positive against Alabama? I’m not sure, but the defense’s performance will be the most interesting thing to watch on Saturday. And that may continue beyond this week:  with a more manageable schedule after this weekend, how far might the Vol defense carry this team the rest of the way, and how much might that impact the outlook on this team in 2018?

The Tennessee Volunteers are a 34-point underdog to the Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend, and for good reason. The Crimson Tide look like they just keep getting better and better. They are more talented. They are Top 10 in six of twelve defensive statistical categories, including first in rushing defense, second in scoring defense, and fourth in total defense.

And Tennessee’s offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in more than two full games.

#BeatBamaAnyway

We’ve delved into the stats and stared into the eyes of the devil. I don’t care what Nick Saban says, these guys are good. Here’s what we found.

Alabama’s schedule (7-0, 4-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
• W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
• W6: Beat Texas A&M, 27-19.
• W7: Beat Arkansas, 41-9.
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

That schedule to date is ranked as the nation’s 38th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is ranked 51st.

Stats

Alabama features the best rushing defense, the best scoring defense, and the best scoring offense the Vols have seen all year. Either sit down or hold on to something before reading on.

#BeatBamaAnyway

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 134.7 rushing yards per game, and Alabama is giving up only 66.7 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Alabama, is Georgia, which is giving up 82.1 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 62 against them. To date, Tennessee has played no one better against the run than Alabama. I do think that having Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback may be worth another 10-20 yards rushing, so put me down for 80 rushing yards for Tennessee against Alabama.

Alabama rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 242.8 rushing yards per game, while the Alabama run game is averaging 302.6 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is once again Georgia, which is getting 282.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 294 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech, which is averaging 362.0 rushing yards per game and got 535 against Tennessee. A modest reasonable goal for the Vols this weekend would be to hold the Tide to their average on the ground like the Vols did against Georgia, and so I’m going with Alabama getting about 300 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense. It will feel like 500.

#BeatBamaAnyway

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 185.3 passing yards per game, and Alabama is allowing 187.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is giving up 211.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 259 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech. They’re allowing 186.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 221 against them. Based on all of that, I’m going to go with Tennessee putting up the averages this weekend and getting about 185 passing yards.

Alabama passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 129.2 passing yards per game. Alabama is getting 182.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 181.3 yards per game through the air, and they got 212 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 226.4 passing yards per game and got 129 against Tennessee. I’m going with Alabama putting up about 170 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 21.7 points per game, and Alabama is allowing 10.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is allowing 12.6 points per game, and they goose-egged Tennessee. Tennessee has not played anyone better than Alabama in this category. The Vols have not scored a touchdown in more than two full games, and they are now playing the stingiest defense they’ve faced all season. Regardless, I think that the rivalry aspect of this game will somehow kick in and result in six or seven points. Officially, I’m going with 7 points for the Vols.

Alabama scoring

Tennessee is allowing 23.8 points per game. Alabama is averaging 42.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 37.6 points, and they got 41 against Tennessee. In addition to being the stingiest defense the Vols have played this year, Alabama also has the highest-scoring offense they’re seen so far.

This is the most difficult thing in the matchup to predict, I think. The thing is, Tennessee’s defense isn’t terrible this year. It’s just that the offense is struggling so much that the defense ends up looking worse than it is. With two exceptions, the Vols have held all opponents to under 26 points, 20 if you discount that last play against Florida. And one of the exceptions was a double-overtime game. And yet, that still leaves the last exception: Georgia put up 41, and honestly, Alabama looks just like Georgia except even better. The Tide are basically scoring 41 points in every game they play. Texas A&M gave them a good game and held them to 27, but Alabama also averaged over 60 points against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt.

Honestly, I think the range here is a vast, gaping chasm with teeth, something like 32-60. I’m going to split the difference and call it 45 points for Bama.

#BeatBamaAnyway

SUMMARY

Tennessee rushing yards: 80

Alabama rushing yards: 300

Tennessee passing yards: 185

Alabama passing yards: 170

Tennessee points: 7

Alabama points: 45

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Alabama 33, Tennessee 7 and covering the spread.

#BeatBamaAnyway

Current betting lines and other statistical models

The SPM is more optimistic than Vegas, as the current spread is between 35 and 36.5, with an over/under of 50.5-51.5. That makes it look like Alabama, 43-8 or so.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 2.1% chance of beating the Tide, and S&P+ gives them a 5% chance, setting the game at Alabama, 39.1-10.9. So both S&P+ and the SPM like the Vols to cover this week. Of course, computers don’t know when wheels are about to come off.

What does Alabama do especially well?

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Okay, so they’re going to run the ball. No surprise there. If there is a surprise, it’s that the run game is actually not very well balanced out by the passing game. So sell out to stop the run. It may not matter a great deal, but maybe it makes the difference between 300 and 200 rushing yards.

Defensive observations. Sheesh. First in the nation in rushing defense. Second in scoring defense. Fourth in total, fifth in interceptions. Top 10 in two other categories. No worse than 55th in anything. Top 25 in all but two categories. This presents a huge dilemma for the Vols, as their strength is John Kelly and the run game. Alabama is going to take that away and make you want to pass, but is that something that the Vols can actually do? And even if they can, do they really want to do that, make the game longer, and give the Alabama offense more time on the field against a tired defense? If you’re looking for answers, or even ideas, well, I’ll have to get back to you.

Special teams, Turnovers, and Penalties observations. Oh, and they don’t turn the ball over, either. Great.

#BeatBamaAnyway

The Gameplan

Honestly, we’re looking at a huge David vs. Goliath matchup here, which means employing some non-traditional thinking. Once upon a time, Lane Kiffin used this strategy to nearly upset Alabama. It doesn’t mean you’re not playing to win; it’s recognizing that your best chance to win is to first make it close, and making it close means reducing the number of plays because they have an advantage in each and every one of them. Do something unexpected. Fake something. Take more risks on fourth down. Hit them with a rock in the forehead.

On defense, I think you absolutely sell out 100% to limiting Alabama’s run game, live with any passes down the field, and also redefine success so that you can keep your mind right all the way to the end of the game. Don’t get discouraged by them still succeeding running the ball against an all-out sell-out. Just make it more difficult than what they’re used to and see if maybe they get frustrated.

On offense, I don’t know. I think I’d still focus on running the ball even against the nation’s best run defense because it’s the only way to shorten the game. Alabama is better than Tennessee, and the longer the game, the more it will get out of hand. Get your defense as much rest as you can and start early. Use the entire play clock in between every play beginning with the very first one. Try to frustrate them by making them impatient, by making it excrutiatingly slow. Even if you end up going 3-and-out, at least you’ve maximized the rest for your defense and shortened the game, thereby maximizing the possibility that something crazy will happen and that it might make a difference.

Alabama is a 34-point favorite in this game, and for good reason.

#BeatBamaAnyway

---

Last Week

Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and South Carolina two weeks ago.

Prediction	Score	Rushing Yards	Passing Yards	Total Yards
Tennessee	21	165	215	380
South Carolina	27	150	220	370

 

Actual Results	Score	Rushing Yards	Passing Yards	Total Yards
Tennessee	9	120	133	253
South Carolina	15	194	129	323

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Tennessee -3.5, and the SPM picked South Carolina to win outright, so yes, the SPM won in Vegas this week.

After some sideline-watching Thursday and Friday and a noon-slate of appetizers, the Vols travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide at 3:30 on CBS. The evening then features a couple of big national-interest games.

Here’s the Week 8 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what’s at stake in each game from the perspective of a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols! Beat Bama Anyway!

Thursday, October 19

 

In case you suddenly find yourself interested in coaches, well, here are a couple.

Friday, October 20

 

Didn’t get your fill Thursday? Try again Friday!

Gameday, October 21

Get yourself your favorite pizza and settle in for a handful of noon appetizers, and then get ready for the big one at 3:30.

 

Noon slot

I don’t know. Something interesting could happen here. And if not, you still have your pizza.

Afternoon slot

Go Vols! Beat Bama Anyway!

Evening slot

You may need to just sit in a chair and stare at the TV Saturday night, so what better way to do it than with a couple of games of national interest?

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 8

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

The conversation about Butch Jones should always include a tip of the cap for getting Tennessee from Point A to Point B. In recruiting and the win total, the progress he helped the Vols make is undeniable. And I’m sure those were some of the most difficult steps, in particular getting high-caliber recruits to commit to Tennessee before we had even nine wins to back it up, let alone the championships we’re still chasing.

For the fan base, the most precious commodity on the path of progress is memories. You need to make them in the moment with individual wins of significance, then you need that season to go well enough for the moment to last. And in this department, Tennessee has suffered despite the overall progress Jones has made.

The path of progress is measure a little differently from a national perspective. More removed from the emotions and less invested in the memories, it’s about getting to the big stage games and winning enough to stay in the national conversation. Butch Jones has increased Tennessee’s presence on the national stage:  as we wrote before the Georgia Tech game, the Vols were in a CBS 3:30/ABC 8:00/ESPN College GameDay match-up just 12 times from 2009-14, and lost all 12. But this Saturday will mark the 13th time the Vols have played in one of those national stage games since 2015, and right now the Vols are 6-6 in them.

Tennessee has been better at getting to the big stage, yet has still struggled to stay in the conversation. How do we measure this part of UT’s progress?

We’re all looking for championships and big prizes like a New Year’s Six bowl, but that criteria alone is more limited and tends to make things a little too pass/fail. For a program like Tennessee the last 10 years, it also eliminates a step or two between where the Vols are and the endgame of an SEC or national championship. While we’d like to believe after so many years Tennessee is just one step away from college football’s top tier (or even the one below Alabama), I’m not sure those without orange-tinted glasses would agree.

What’s the simplest way to measure a team’s presence in the national conversation? I submit it’s the Top 25. Are you ranked, and for how long? The Top 25 is still what scrolls at the bottom of my television screen and the default setting on my scoreboard app. Top 25 teams play in games that get talked about every week. It’s one thing to get in the poll, something Butch Jones helped Tennessee do again. The most telling poll is the last one, and the Vols slid in there after bowl victories in each of the last two seasons. But for national relevance, I would argue longevity in the poll is more important than where you finish.

And in that department, Tennessee has struggled:  not just in Butch’s first two seasons as the Vols were rebuilding, but in the last three.

Since Tennessee reappeared in the Top 25 in the 2015 preseason AP poll, the Vols have been ranked only 17 times in the last 40 polls:

• 2015:  25th preseason, 23rd vs Oklahoma, 22nd in the final poll
• 2016:  Ranked in the first nine polls, 24th vs Vanderbilt, 22nd in the final poll
• 2017:  25th preseason, 25th vs Indiana State, 23rd at Florida

(Stats from Tennessee’s media guide and poll history at Wikipedia)

In eight of Tennessee’s 17 appearances since 2015, the Vols have been ranked between 22-25.

Again, this is clearly progress: the Vols were ranked 18th in the 2008 preseason poll, lost to UCLA, and disappeared from the Top 25 for four years. They were back for one week – #23 against Florida in 2012 – then gone again for the rest of that season and all of the next two. That’s two appearances in seven years. Butch Jones has 17 in three years.

But three seasons removed from getting back to the poll, an inability to stay there has impeded further progress and kept Tennessee out of the national conversation beyond those first nine weeks of 2016. Even after the Vols were ready for the big stage – and that 2015 team definitely was – I feel like we’ve spent just as much time since then discussing whether Jones was the guy as we have the Vols as a contender.

One step of progress beyond winning the SEC East for whoever is coaching this team next year and beyond:  getting and staying ranked throughout the season. Historically speaking, it’s been something the Vols were capable of even in years they didn’t bring home a title.

When Johnny Majors replaced Bill Battle in 1977, the Vols hadn’t been ranked since October 1975. The Vols would appear four times in the 1979 poll, then not again until the magical 1985 SEC Championship season. That year Tennessee entered the poll at #16 after beating #1 Auburn and finished #4.

The Vols were ranked in the first two polls of 1986, then every week in a 10-2-1 1987 season. The 1988 Vols started 18th before an 0-6 start chased them out. Then Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance began in 1989, where the Vols entered the poll at #17 after a win at #6 UCLA in week two. From there, the Vols were a mainstay in the polls and the national conversation for almost two decades:

• The Vols were ranked in every poll from the third week of 1989 through the end of September 1994, when a 1-3 start after Jerry Colquitt’s knee injury gave way to Peyton Manning as the starter. From late September 1989 through the end of the 1991 season, the Vols were in the Top 15 every week en route to a pair of SEC titles.
• After sliding in the final poll in 1994 at #24, the Vols were ranked every week from 1995 through mid-October 2000 after a 2-3 start. From October 1995 through the end of the 1999 season the Vols were in the Top 10 every week except one, dropping to #12 after the 1996 loss to Memphis.
• Back in the poll by the end of the 2000 season, the Vols spent all of 2001 in the Top 11 and were ranked until early November 2002. Then the Vols were ranked every week in 2003 and 2004, spending all but one of those weeks in the Top 20.
• The Vols were ranked until late October 2005, every week in 2006, and all but one week in 2007.

You can see a decline if you look at the number of weeks spent in the Top 10, etc., but overall the Vols were still right there throughout Fulmer’s tenure. Tennessee hasn’t been in the Top 5 beyond the Florida game since 2001, but was in the Top 10 in November of 2003, 2004, and 2006, where you can convince yourself you’re still in the hunt for the big prize.

Whoever is coaching Tennessee next year will likely inherit a team with work to do to get back in the poll. But the good work Butch Jones and his staff have already done in recruiting make that a much more manageable hill to climb. If we get in the business of a coaching search, we’ll all be looking for the guy who can help us win a national championship again. But there are still a few steps between here and there, and getting the Vols back in the Top 25 on a regular basis will be one of the most important and most telling between a rebuild and the title.

Expectations shift downward again this week, as Tennessee shows a bit of promise for the future but without changing the actual outcome and LSU begins to find itself. Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after the bye

The Vols game against South Carolina was a mixed bag as far as expectations for the rest of the season go. On one hand, Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback added another element to the offense that gave it several second chances when things broke down. Guarantano also added some much-needed fire to the mix. On the other hand, the offense still broke down much more than anyone wanted it to and did so in some frustratingly familiar ways. Guarantano may provide some hope for the future, but my Magic 8 Ball says the answer to the question of how quickly that future arrives is murky.

So at this time, I’m not adjusting expectations for the Vols independently of their opponents.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (3-2, 2-1 ACC, RV)

• W1: Lost to Tennessee 42-41 in double overtime.
• W2: Beat Jacksonville State, 37-10.
• W3: At UCF (canceled)
• W4: Beat Pitt, 35-17.
• W5: Beat North Carolina, 33-7.
• W6: Bye
• W7: Lost to #11 Miami, 25-24.
• W8: Wake Forest
• W9: At Clemson
• W10: At Virginia
• W11: Virginia Tech
• W12: At Duke
• W13: Georgia

The Yellow Jackets are one play in double overtime and one point away from being undefeated. They also have a lot of opportunities ahead of them with games against Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia coming up.

Indiana State (0-6, 0-3 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
• W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to Illinois State, 24-13.
• W6: Lost to North Dakota State, 52-0.
• W7: Lost to South Dakota, 56-6.
• W8: S Illinois
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

Florida (3-3, 3-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
• W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
• W4: Beat Kentucky, 28-27.
• W5: Beat Vanderbilt, 38-24.
• W6: Lost to LSU, 17-16 on a missed extra point due to a bad snap and hold.
• W7: Lost to Texas A&M, 19-17.
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: Florida State

Yes, that loss to the Gators keeps getting better and better.

UMass (0-6, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
• W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
• W5: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13.
• W6: Lost to Ohio, 58-50.
• W7: Bye
• W8: At USF (canceled)
• W9: Ga Southern
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Bye.

Georgia (7-0, 4-0 SEC, #3)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
• W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
• W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
• W5: Demoralized Tennessee, 41-0.
• W6: Beat Vanderbilt, 45-14.
• W7: Beat Missouri, 53-28.
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

These guys just keep rolling.

South Carolina (5-2, 3-2 SEC, RV)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
• W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
• W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-17.
• W6: Beat Arkansas, 48-22.
• W7: Beat Tennessee, 15-9.
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Moving on.

The Vols’ future opponents

10/21/17: Alabama (7-0, 4-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
• W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
• W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
• W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
• W6: Beat Texas A&M, 27-19.
• W7: Beat Arkansas, 41-9.
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: The good news is that Georgia looks very similar to Alabama this year, so it’s like we’ve already played them once. The bad news is, well, you remember how that went. I’m moving this game back down to 1%. So, yes, I’m saying there’s a chance.

PREDICTIONS – ALABAMA

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

10

10

10

10

5

1

5

1

10/28/17: Kentucky (5-1, 2-1 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
• W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
• W6: Beat Missouri, 40-34.
• W7: Bye
• W8: At Mississippi State
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: Keeping this one at 50/50.

PREDICTIONS – KENTUCKY

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

65

65

70

65

55

50

50

50

11/4/17: Southern Miss (4-2, 2-1 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
• W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
• W4: Bye
• W5: Lost to North Texas, 43-28.
• W6: Beat UTSA, 31-29.
• W7: Beat UTEP, 24-0.
• W8: At LA Tech
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: Moving this one to 50/50. Sigh.

PREDICTIONS – SOUTHERN MISS

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

90

85

80

80

70

55

55

50

11/11/17: Missouri (1-5, 0-4 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
• W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
• W5: Bye
• W6: Lost to Kentucky, 40-34.
• W7: Lost to #4 Georgia, 53-28.
• W8: Idaho
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Leaving this one at 50/50, too.

PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

70

65

70

70

70

50

50

50

11/18/17: LSU (5-2, 2-1 SEC, #24)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
• W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
• W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
• W5: Lost at home, during Homecoming, to Troy, 24-21.
• W6: Beat #21 Florida, 17-16.
• W7: Beat #10 Auburn, 27-23.
• W8: At Ole Miss
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Oh, look. These guys are ranked again. Nice. Changing this back down to 30%.

PREDICTIONS – LSU

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

25

25

25

45

45

50

50

30

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
• W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
• W4: Lost to #1 Alabama, 59-0.
• W5: Lost to #21 Florida, 38-24.
• W6: Lost to #5 Georgia, 45-14.
• W7: Lost to Ole Miss, 57-35.
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: Another 50/50 game for me.

PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

72

72

65

55

55

50

50

50

All of that puts me at 5.31 wins. We’ll see whether anything changes.

 

Few would blame you if you have little interest in rehashing the South Carolina loss this weekend. Or in talking about the Georgia, UMass, or Florida games before that. And what is there to say about Tennessee being a 34-point underdog to Alabama this week?

With all that’s been happening, and with what appears to be more and more likely to happen, it got me thinking about the criteria used to evaluate coaches. For fans, a lot of it is just unadulterated emotion; this person is currently making us mad, and we believe this other person would make it all better.

An athletic director, though, isn’t likely to make important decisions based on his emotional state. He’ll develop the criteria he uses to make his own judgments and then use them to evaluate current coaches and, when the time comes, to evaluate candidates for vacancies.

The question then is this: What criteria should an athletic director use when making these decisions?

I. The lag measure: A consistent winning record

Winning within the rules has to be number one on the list. It’s the primary goal, the trophy you’re chasing. For anyone perhaps bristling at the idea that winning matters more than anything else on a college campus, that is not what I’m saying. I’m saying it is the primary responsibility for one of its key employees, namely the college football coach.

A University is a large institution with many goals, the most important of which is education. The institution, though, is made up of many different components, departments, and business units, each with its own limited purpose that makes a contribution to the overall goal. For example, campus security has little direct effect on education, but it is still integral to the efficient functioning of the institution. In other words, security provides an indirect contribution to the goal. The same goes for landscaping and maintenance, and marketing, and a host of other University groups that indirectly further the school’s primary purpose.

That includes the football program, too, and although the football program has several sub-purposes and sub-groups, the head football coach is charged with basically only one thing: winning within the rules.

Wins are easy to measure. You’re looking for a consistent track record of success. That could be some combination of a solid winning percentage over time and the number of pinnacles reached, such as Top 25 finishes, number of wins over rivals, division championships, conference championships, playoff appearances, national championship appearances, and national championship trophies. And it has to be consistent and sustained.

A quick word on fit and culture

To say that winning is number one on the list does not mean that it is elevated over the culture of the program. You want someone who accomplishes the goal of winning at the expected level and does so both within the rules and consistent with the culture of the program. That does not mean that every program has to do it the same way, but a wise athletic director will look for a candidate who is a naturally good fit for the school’s culture. If character, integrity, and other such virtues matter to the program, then the program should actively search for a candidate who can both win and mesh with the culture. I doubt BYU is hiring Bobby Petrino or Rick Pitino.

II. Lead measures

Winning is a “lag measure,” as it’s the main thing you’re trying to accomplish at the end of it all. “Lead measures,” on the other hand, are those things that generally have a direct impact the lag measures.

What are some lead measures for college football coaches? What things tend to produce wins within the rules and the culture of a program? Here are just a few of the most important ones:

A. Recruiting

It is well-established now that recruiting rankings matter. There have been numerous articles that show this to be true, including the Team Talent Rankings that we publish each year in our annual preseason magazine, Gameday on Rocky Top.

The main takeaway from that regular feature is this: With only two exceptions over the past 14 years, the national champion for any given season ranked somewhere in the Top 8 of our rolling, four-year aggregation of the annual recruiting rankings published by major recruiting services. The only two outliers were Cam Newton’s Auburn in 2010 and Clemson last year. Both were ranked #13, and both featured quarterbacks who went on to have some success in the NFL. Alabama, by the way, has been #1 in Team Talent Rankings every year since 2011, and they have been in the mix for a national championship every season during that span.

If you’re not convinced by that, check out SB Nation’s annual blue-chip ratio analysis, which concludes essentially the same thing but with a slightly different talent metric.

So, an athletic director would do well to have a good recruiter as his head coach. The key information to review would be something like the guy’s average recruiting class as a head coach, some custom metric like our Team Talent Rankings or SB Nation’s blue-chip ratio, or the number of Top 10 or Top 5 classes the coach has put together. The recruiting services also rank individual coaches by recruiting prowess, so that could serve as another point of reference for assistants.

B. Player development

Recruiting well is necessary to success in college football, but it is not sufficient. There are likely many reasons why talent alone is not enough – poor team chemistry, poor play-calling or schemes, poor coaching decisions – but one of the most common is lack of player development, which is the responsibility of both the player himself and the coach. A coach who can both persuade talented players to play for him and also improve them as players once they get on campus is extremely valuable.

Measuring a coach’s ability to take a player who is X good and make him X+Y good is difficult. Although not a perfect measure, looking at how many players the coach has sent to the NFL is at least some indication of possible proficiency in this area.

C. Team management

When I refer to “team management,” I mean basic management skills, both of players and staff.

Staff Management

I’m beginning to believe more and more that the quality of a head coach’s coordinators is an extremely undervalued factor in the head coach’s success. Having a highly-developed ability to identify, hire, train, and retain good coordinators and staff is key. How many times have we seen successful coaches undone by poor coordinator hires? Fulmer, Clawson. Dooley, Sunseri. There’s an argument for one happening right now.

And have we ever seen a coach be successful primarily because of his coordinators? Maybe Fulmer, with John Chavis and David Cutcliffe? Gene Chizik, with Gus Malzahn? Anyone else?

Being a “CEO” coach is sort of the equivalent of being a “game manager” quarterback in that it’s viewed as a bit of an insult when it shouldn’t be. Both get too little credit for managing the group. It’s an incredibly important skill. Doing it well can get you places, and making one key mistake can undo it all in a hurry.

Player Management

Similarly, the ability to manage players well is probably undervalued. It has to be a challenge to out-woo rival schools for elite high school players and then “de-recruit” them once they get to campus without losing your credibility.

There’s also likely an underappreciated difference between managing mid-level players — like those at non-Power 5 schools — and rosters full of blue chip recruits. The latter is one of the things that made NBA coach Phil Jackson so good for the Chicago Bulls and the Los Angeles Lakers. The man knew how to manage egos and get them working together. This may also be something that explains the difference between the success Butch Jones had at Central Michigan and Cincinnati and the struggles he has had at Tennessee.

III. Media savvy

This one is weird. It should first be noted that it is secondary to everything else. If a coach is succeeding at everything else, then he doesn’t need to be a media darling. See Saban, Nick; Belichick, Bill.

And if a coach struggles after his honeymoon with fans is over, then nothing he can say to the media will help.

But what being media savvy can do for a coach is buy time, which is an incredibly precious commodity for coaches in an age of impatience.

So, those are the things I think an athletic director should be looking closely at when evaluating current coaches or coaching candidates. What do you think? Are we looking at the right things?