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Time to play the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you have no idea what that is, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.
Good luck, and Go Vols!
Basketball season tips off tonight: the Vols host Presbyterian at 7 PM ET (available online via SEC Network+). Tennessee beat this team by 40 last year; Presbyterian enters the season 341 out of 351 in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. It should serve (along with hosting High Point on Tuesday) as a soft opening before the Battle 4 Atlantis over Thanksgiving.
We shouldn’t learn a lot before then, but a few things stand out as opportunities for significant improvement from last year. If the Vols are going to play their way onto the bubble in hopes of finishing on the dance floor, they’ll have to be better in three critical areas:
Rocket science, I know. But this is more than the Cuonzo Martin school of, “We didn’t make shots.” The best way for Tennessee to shoot it better is to get better shots.
We covered this at the old site late last season:Â the Vols were 13-1 when they had 16+ assists, 3-15 when they had 15 or less. Overall the Vols shot 42.2% from the floor last season (289th nationally), and just 40.7% in conference play (12th in the SEC). When the offense was humming the Vols shared the ball and created good looks, often for Robert Hubbs or Grant Williams. But the Vols struggled to create their own shots beyond Hubbs, leading to tough twos for guys like Lamonte Turner (35.5% from the floor) and Jordan Bowden (37.1%).
Tennessee also struggled to win ugly, a quality any bubble team needs. The Vols were 13-2 when shooting 42% or better from the floor, including strong performances in losses at North Carolina and at Florida. But under 42%, the Vols were only 3-14. Tennessee did face the nation’s third most difficult schedule in opponent defensive rating by KenPom, but an improved SEC and Rick Barnes’ choice to schedule for the tournament shouldn’t make things tremendously easier this time around.
I don’t know if we can count on the newcomers to make a huge difference here. James Daniel did put in 27.1 points per game for Howard, but was more of a volume scorer averaging 38.8% from the floor on 19.4 shots per game. Better shooting is still more likely to come from better offense than guys naturally evolving into better jump shooters. This means point guard play, starting with Jordan Bone, will be critical for the Vols this season.
Last season the Vols were 290th nationally in three pointers attempted and 13th in SEC play. The percentages made sense:Â 32.6% from the arc overall and 31.8% in league play weren’t inspiring anyone to jack it up more.
Some of the offense’s best performances came with the fewest three point attempts of the season. Against Kentucky the Vols were 5-of-10 from the arc, the fewest attempts of the year. Tennessee also beat Georgia Tech, Kansas State, and Vanderbilt while attempting 15 threes or less. UT’s best three point shooter last year was…Admiral Schofield at 38.9%. There still may not be a great three-point shooter on this roster.
However, the game is evolving to the arc more and more:Â last year only two teams earned an at-large bid while taking less than 600 three pointers (Seton Hall and Miami). The Vols took 579. Here again, the solution is better offense:Â creating better opportunities for a guy like Grant Williams inside can lead to more open looks for a number of players on the perimeter. In an exhibition win at Clemson, the Vols were 9-of-24 (37.5%) from the arc. Twenty-four attempts would have been the sixth-most taken in all of last season. Of particular note:Â in two exhibition games, Grant Williams is 2-of-4 from the arc and Admiral Schofield is 3-of-7. Williams averaged one three attempt per game last year, Schofield 1.7. If those two put that in their game regularly and effectively, Tennessee’s entire offensive dynamic will change.
What comes of playing a bunch of guys under 6’8″: the Vols were 13th in the SEC in defensive rebounding. In the close losses that were most costly last season – the ones that could have made the biggest difference in Tennessee’s bubble presence – this was the number one issue:
You can what-if yourself to death, but if the Vols turn those three losses by a combined eight points into wins, Tennessee is 19-13 with a projected RPI of 52 (via RPI Wizard) going to the SEC Tournament, looking to play their way into the NCAA Tournament. Giving up such a high percentage of offensive rebounds was particularly costly.
Again, only so much you can do with so little height. John Fulkerson’s return will help here, as will the arrival of Derrick Walker to join Grant Williams and Kyle Alexander inside. Tennessee is still going to be smaller than the opposition more often than not – we’ll come back to this point in a major way against Purdue in 12 days – but has to avoid annihilation on the offensive glass to turn some of these close losses into close wins.
The Vols don’t have to excel in any of these areas to be a good team; there are plenty of things Tennessee did well last season (getting to the free throw line, blocking shots while defending without fouling, staying in the black in assist-to-turnover ratio). But these are the greatest areas for improvement for Rick Barnes’ squad, and could make the difference between the NIT and the NCAA Tournament.
The fun starts tonight.
Man, it sure is a good thing the Locks & Keys were out of town last weekend. Because while the Vols may have (finally) won, we sure didn’t when it came to predicting games. Better to keep that debauchery out of the public eye.
All we need to know is it was bad. Real bad.
Meanwhile, Tennessee is on a one-game winning streak! Let’s hope that doesn’t end this weekend, but it likely will against a Missouri team that has found its stride and annihilated Florida 45-16 last weekend. It isn’t like the Tigers are that good, but I’m not sure if you’ve been watching or not, but the Vols aren’t, either.
There’s no reason to visit the pre-Kentucky L&K from two weeks ago. I mean, the Vols lost, so you know they didn’t do very well with the keys. Things aren’t pretty on Rocky Top, so the Vols will travel all the way to Columbia, Missouri, this weekend and hope their misfortunate doesn’t follow them there.
Wake me up when there’s a new coach, amirite? Let’s take a look at the keys to beating Mizzou.
The strength and conditioning woes helped ruin Jones’ career, and in no place have those shortcomings been more evident than on the offensive line.
With Brett Kendrick and Drew Richmond out again this week, it’s going to be slim pickings on the line again for the Vols. The good news for UT is Mizzou hasn’t been good against the run, allowing 181 yards on the ground per game. The Tigers also are giving up 33.8 points per game, though the Vols won’t approach that number.
If Will McBride is the quarterback, UT is going to have to run the ball successfully to win. That means a healthy dosage of John Kelly and Ty Chandler, both of which are capable of taking over games with just a little bit of blocking up front. It’s vital Tennessee has the run-first, run-often game plan and utilizes it to perfection if it’s going to win.
In building off the theme above, Tennessee must run the ball, control the clock, convert third downs and stay on the field.
The less Lock has the ball, the better for the Vols. UT’s secondary has been stout against the pass this year, leading the SEC allowing just 150 yards per game. But that number is deceptive. After all, why would any team ever pass the ball on Tennessee when you can straight-up run down its throat?
Mizzou will pass the ball, and it will have success doing so. That’s why the Vols need to play a 60-minute game of keep-away. Sustain drives, get first downs, score touchdowns. That’s the only way to win.
After Butch Jones called Jarrett Guarantano “probable” earlier this week, he later said the redshirt freshman is a game-time decision. That means it could be true freshman McBride’s game.
That’s scary news, yeah. Though McBride entered the Southern Miss game and didn’t bat an eye, he wasn’t exactly effective. Now, he could be leading a putrid offense in a game where the Vols absolutely must score points to hang with the high-flying passing attack of the Tigers. Can McBride throw the ball downfield? If he can, do the Vols have anybody who can catch it?
Mizzou has the league’s 13th-rated pass defense. They’re awful. UT must find a way to display some sort of vertical game.
Say what you want about Bob Shoop’s tenure at Tennessee, but the defense has done its part in the past two games. It looks like things are finally beginning to click on that side. Not only are the Vols playing well, they’re getting the football back for their offense, too.
Though they lost 29-26 to Kentucky, they forced four Wildcats turnovers (which makes it even more inexplicable that they found a way to lose). Against Southern Miss, UT got two more turnovers, turning both into touchdowns. In those two games, the Vols didn’t have a single turnover.
Tennessee must turn Mizzou over to win this game. The Tigers have youth running the ball and will try to advance the ball downfield through the air. That’s where UT will have to bait Lock and get some big plays. If they do, they can win.
Saw a crazy tweet today that underlines just how deep-rooted Tennessee’s player development issues are. In the past four recruiting classes, UT has seven 5-star players and Mizzou has zero. The Vols have 48 4-stars, and the Tigers have 11. Mizzou has 20 2-star players, and the Vols have just 3.
Yet Mizzou is favored by 11 points.
Ouch.
Forget that Jones is the coach; this UT team is more talented than Mizzou. And Vanderbilt later this year. The Vols were more talented than Kentucky, but that didn’t matter. It needs to start mattering.
Play like you’re Tenne-freaking-ssee.
I guess we can’t really call them “locks” anymore after the past two weeks. Even though you can’t see last week’s results, trust me, they were awful. I need to get off the schneid. They were just as bad two weeks ago, when we did log them. I went 2-6 to spiral my record to 32-33-1 on the season.
I desperately need a good week again. Right now, we’re down (fictitious) money. Let’s revisit the carnage.
First of all, I thought two terrible offenses in Tennessee and Kentucky wouldn’t approach 46, but UK wound up winning 29-26 as the Vols somehow found a way to cross the goal line multiple times when they hadn’t for 14 quarters. Who knew?
I wish we could just forget about two of the games I picked, but, alas, we couldn’t I actually picked Louisville to win by a lot over Wake Forest though it was just 2.5 point favorites. The Cardinals were embarrassed. So was Arizona State, who lost 48-17 against USC. I guess after the wins over Arizona and Arizona State the past two weeks, the Trojans finally have woken up. How in the world did Appalachian State not beat UMass by more than three??? The Minutemen actually won 30-27. Kansas didn’t beat Kansas State, but the Jayhawks only lost 30-20, easily covering a 24.5-point spread. And I picked Texas A&M over Mississippi State at home. The Aggies didn’t.
The wins are a lot easier to cover because there were only two of them. Arizona was a three-point underdog to Washington State, but the Cougars had no answer for Khalil Tate in a 58-37 Wildcats win. Also, the fighting Lane Kiffins were 6.5-point favorites over Western Kentucky and won 42-28.
Let’s try to win some pride back this week.
The GRT Statsy Preview Machine and I disagreed last week, and the DNA won out over the bits and bytes. We agree on the outcome this week, but not on the spread, as the SPM is taking Tennessee and the points while I think Missouri covers despite Tennessee ostensibly having more talent on the field.
Before we get to the particulars, though, let’s have a look at Missouri’s resume to date to see whether and to what degree a statistical comparison of the two teams might need to be adjusted for strength of schedule.
That schedule is ranked as the nation’s 50th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is now 18th, so keep that disparity in mind as you look at the stats.
This weekend, the Vols will face the best passing offense they’ve seen all season but also the worst scoring defense they’ve seen all season. How does Missouri look otherwise? Read on.
Tennessee is averaging 130.0 rushing yards per game, while Missouri is giving up 181.3 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Missouri, is Massachusetts, which is giving up 200.7 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 135 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Missouri is Florida, which is allowing 172.8. Tennessee got 183 on the ground against Florida. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Missouri is 160.
The Tennessee defense is allowing 237.3 rushing yards per game, while the Missouri run game is averaging 169.2 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Southern Mississippi, which is getting 168.7 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is not very close at all. They’re averaging 278.4 rushing yards per game, and they got 272 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Missouri will get a little less than its average of 169 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense. Let’s call it 150.
Tennessee is averaging 168.1 passing yards per game, and Missouri is allowing 260.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is giving up 279.4 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 242 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina. They’re allowing 239.4 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 133 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up 200 passing yards this weekend.
Missouri is the best passing offense the Vols have faced all season. The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 150.0 passing yards per game. Missouri is getting 314.9. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is getting 288.1 yards per game through the air, but got only 137 against Tennessee. I’m going with Missouri putting up about 240 passing yards against Tennessee.
This will be the worst scoring defense the Vols have played all season. Tennessee is averaging 20.8 points per game, and Missouri is allowing 33.6. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is allowing 30.9 points per game. However, Tennessee only got 17 against them. The most points Tennessee has scored this season in a non-overtime game against an FBS opponent is 26 (against Kentucky). They scored 28 against Georgia Tech in regulation. Their ceiling appears to be 42, but that came against FCS Indiana State. I’m thinking the Vols would normally score somewhere between those numbers (28 and 42), but that this offensive line is going to have trouble with Missouri’s defensive line, so I’m going with the low end and saying 31.
Tennessee is allowing 25.2 points per game. Missouri is averaging 36.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech, which is averaging 31.8 points, and they got 28 against Tennessee in regulation. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 40.9 points and got 45 against Tennessee. I’m going with Missouri putting up about 43 points against Tennessee.
Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Missouri 33.3, Tennessee 24, a spread of Missouri -9.3.
The spread is Missouri -10.5, with an over/under of 61.5. That makes it look like Missouri, 36-26 or so.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 35.4% chance of beating Missouri, and the S&P+ puts it at 28%, setting the game at Missouri, 33.7-23.7.
So the humans and machines are in general agreement on the 10.5-point spread, but the SPM is going with Tennessee and the points. Me, I’m taking Missouri to cover.
Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and Southern Miss last week.
Once again, those were my eyeball-adjusted predictions. The SPM projection on the score was Southern Miss 18.5, Tennessee 14.8.
The line was Tennessee -6.5, and the SPM thought Southern Miss would win outright, so it lost when Tennessee covered. With human intervention, we went with Tennessee covering, so hooray for DNA, at least on this game. Overall, the SPM went 33-26 against the spread for the week, posting 55.93%. Over the four weeks we’ve been testing it, it’s gone 67.92%, 53.06%, 54.55%, and 55.93% for an overall rate of 57.87%.
So far this week, we’ve looked at what Missouri does well (and not so well) and which of their players are most important to their team. Now let’s take a look Tennessee’s and Missouri’s projected starters with each players’ class and published recruiting rankings. If you can’t see the entire chart embedded below, click here for full page:
As before, the color codes are based on the range of 247 Composite numbers on the list. The range starts with deep green at the top and ends with deep red at the bottom. The highest-rated player on either team is Tennessee’s Trey Smith, with a rating of .992.
Here’s the list of starters, sorted by recruiting ranking (full page here):
Fifteen years ago, it was easy to talk yourself into the Vols taking over the SEC East. Tennessee won the division in 2001, beating Steve Spurrier on his way to the NFL. A heartbreaking loss in Atlanta only fueled expectations for 2002, with the Vols ranked fifth in the preseason AP poll. It’s hard to believe now, but the SEC East was at the peak of its powers: the Gators were sixth, the Dawgs eighth in the initial poll. Even South Carolina snuck in at #22. Only Nick Saban’s LSU squad was ranked (#14) from the SEC West.
And yet, it’s hard for me to remember more preseason optimism in Knoxville. Riding high on the program’s success from 1995-2001, dominance was the next step and Spurrier was out of the way. Mark Richt and Georgia had upset the Vols the year before, but that loss ultimately didn’t cost Tennessee; it was still easy enough to fall back on UT’s 90’s dominance over the Dawgs. Winning in Gainesville chased away the final monkeys on Phillip Fulmer’s back, and no one believed Ron Zook would wrangle them back in place. When his Gators were blown out by Miami before coming to Knoxville, Tennessee smelled blood. 2002 was my last year in the student section and we were thinking blowout, a dream rarely available to Vol fans in this rivalry.
Instead, one of the strangest nightmares I’ve ever seen in Neyland: an absolute downpour led to five Tennessee fumbles in the last five minutes of the first half, turning a scoreless slugfest into a 24-0 Gator lead. The Vols fell 30-13, then lost 18-13 in Athens with Casey Clausen out due to injury.
While Tennessee stumbled to an 8-5 season, Georgia pounced. The Dawgs lost to Florida as well, but it would be their only blemish in a 13-1 SEC Championship campaign, Georgia’s first since 1982. It was also the first time someone other than Tennessee or Florida won the SEC East, setting the stage for a time of parity:Â a three-way tie in 2003, the Vols back on top in 2004, and Georgia back in Atlanta in 2005.
By 2006 Urban Meyer had Florida back to being Florida, and the window got a lot smaller for both Tennessee and Georgia. In the last 10 years the Vols have been to Atlanta once (2007), and Georgia only twice:Â merely an appetizer for LSU in 2011, then the nearest of misses against Alabama in 2012. While the Vols walked in the wilderness with three different coaches, Richt’s Georgia programs saw teams outside the Top 10 slide past them to Atlanta in 2010, 2014, and 2015.
Historically, this is Florida’s division: a dozen titles in 25 years, while Tennessee and Georgia had just five each coming into this season. As such, the Vols and Dawgs must take full advantage when the Gators aren’t at full strength. It took the best of Tennessee’s best to win three titles in five years at the end of Spurrier’s tenure. Georgia never won the division when the OBC was in Gainesville, and only went to Atlanta in Urban Meyer’s first year on those same sidelines.
When Florida was in transition 15 years ago, Mark Richt kept Tennessee from taking over. When the Gators started slipping again at the end of Will Muschamp’s tenure, another golden opportunity presented itself. But this time, Tennessee kept Tennessee from taking over. The Vols should be riding a four game winning streak over Florida and two straight SEC East titles. Instead, Tennessee got just one win over the Gators, failed to capitalize on two others over Georgia, and still hasn’t seen the SEC Championship Game since 2007.
The good news:Â Florida is still vulnerable. The bad news:Â Georgia called dibs.
Kirby Smart’s team is detonating the argument for the SEC being a mass of 8-4 behind Alabama. The Dawgs are 9-0 and yet to be threatened in the SEC. They buried what appears to be a good Mississippi State team 31-3 and, most importantly, beat Tennessee and Florida by a combined 83-7. They will graduate Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and a good chunk of their starting defense. But they currently boast the nation’s fifth-best recruiting class, including 11 four-or-five-star commits for a blue chip ratio of 61%. Once-solid recruiting classes from the Vols and Gators are up in the air as their coaching situations resolve themselves.
Florida is down, but they tend not to stay there forever. Butch Jones missed his chance to take advantage in 2015 and 2016. Now all signs point to the Vols making a change at the end of 2017, embracing the speed bumps of transition in hopes of greater progress down the road. But Georgia is firmly in the driver’s seat, both in the division and, right now, in all of college football atop the playoff poll. It’s a small sample size for Kirby Smart, but an impeccable one in year two. If/when the Vols make a change, they should have the opportunity to make a better hire than in January 2010 or December 2012. But with Georgia dominating and the Gators looking to level up at the same time, it’s also a dangerous time for Tennessee. The opportunity to get it right is greater, but so too are the risks if the Vols get it wrong.
Yesterday, we looked at what the Missouri Tigers do well and what they don’t do particularly well. Today, we’ll look at the players who make good things happen for the Tigers.
The Missouri Tigers offense is powered by junior quarterback Drew Lock. Currently, Lock is 176-for-290 for a whopping 2,795 yards and 31 touchdowns. He averages nearly 20 completions per game and nearly 16 yards per completion. You may hear folks talk about Lock being involved in the running game as well, but the stats don’t really bear that out for this season. He’s rushed 28 times for a total of 45 yards in 2017.
Lock does a good job of spreading the wealth, as four wide receivers all average over three receptions per game. Leading the way is senior J’Mon Moore (44 catches for 740 yards and eight touchdowns, an average of 82.22 yards per game). Sophomore Jonathon Johnson is next with 34 catches for 563 yards (62.56 per game) and four TDs, and junior Emanuel Hall follows him with 26 catches for 604 yards and four TDs. Sophomore Dimetrios Mason also averages over three receptions per game but has only 119 yards on the season.
The Tigers rushing attack is by committee, with three backs sharing the load. Senior running back Ish Witter leads the way with 504 yards and three touchdowns. Sophomore Damarea Crockett and freshman Larry Rountree have 481 and 369 yards and two and four touchdowns respectively. Crockett, however, has been injured and is not expected to play against Tennessee.
The team’s leading tackler is sophomore linebacker Cale Garrett, who has 67 so far this season. Junior linebacker Terez Hall is right behind him with 64.
Where the defense excels, though, is behind the opponent’s line of scrimmage, and leading the way there is junior lineman Terry Becker, Jr.. He has six sacks for 29 yards and six solo tackles for loss. Also making things rough for offensive lines are senior lineman Marcell Frazier (3.5 sacks, 4 solo TFLs), Garrett (2 sacks, 4 solo TFLs), and Hall (a sack and 8 solo TFLs).
The secondary appears to be led by a pair of seniors, Logan Cheadle and Thomas Wilson. Cheadle has an interception, three pass breakups, and four passes defended, while Wilson has an interception, two pass breakups, and three passes defended.
Sophomore kicker Tucker McCann (a fictional name if I’ve ever heard one), is 8-of-10 on field goals this season with one block. He’s had touchbacks on only 31 of 50 kickoffs.
Punter Corey Fatony is almost as good as our own Trevor Daniel, as he ranks 8th in the nation in punting average with 45.6 per punt.
Sophomore Richaud Floyd is the team’s main punt returner, and he took one to the end zone against Idaho.
It’s nearly noon on Monday, so that means it’s time for Butch Jones’ regular press conference. You can watch for yourself with the video below or follow along with my real-time notes in the comment section below.
Here’s what the NCAA statistics say the Missouri Tigers do well and what they don’t do well, along with what it all might mean for the Vols when they meet up with the Tigers Saturday night.
| Stat | MO |
|---|---|
| Tackles for Loss Allowed | 1 |
| Team Passing Efficiency | 4 |
| Passing Yards per Completion | 7 |
| Sacks Allowed | 8 |
| Passing Offense | 14 |
| Total Offense | 15 |
| 3rd Down Conversion Pct | 21 |
| Scoring Offense | 22 |
| First Downs Offense | 30 |
| Red Zone Offense | 30 |
| Completion Percentage | 58 |
| Rushing Offense | 59 |
| Passes Had Intercepted | 98 |
| 4th Down Conversion Pct | 121 |
Offensive observations. The Missouri Tigers are only 4-5 overall and 1-4 in conference, but they are still sporting the 15th-best offense in the nation. And before you discount that based on their schedule, note that they have played ranked Georgia and Auburn teams, as well as a good South Carolina defense. They’re averaging 484 yards of offense and 36.6 points per game. They’ve scored more points against Georgia than anyone else (28), and at least double every other Georgia opponent but Notre Dame, which was still nine points behind them.
So, yeah. Missouri is good on offense. How do they do it? An excellent passing attack, primarily, with an offensive line giving it plenty of time and protection to operate. The Tigers are giving up less than one sack and less than three tackles for loss per game. They’re getting nearly 315 passing yards per game. They’re both efficient (4th in Team Passing Efficiency) and explosive (7th in Passing Yards per Completion). And they’re good on first down and third down and in the red zone.
If there’s good news for Tennessee’s defense, it’s that Missouri’s running game is not nearly as good as its passing game. It isn’t terrible, though, either, so selling out to stop the passing attack isn’t without risk.
| Stat | MO |
|---|---|
| Team Tackles for Loss | 14 |
| Team Sacks | 31 |
| 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense | 62 |
| First Downs Defense | 76 |
| Passes Intercepted | 80 |
| Rushing Defense | 88 |
| Team Passing Efficiency Defense | 99 |
| Total Defense | 104 |
| Scoring Defense | 106 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 107 |
| 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense | 122 |
| Red Zone Defense | 127 |
Defensive observations. Fortunately for the Vols, Missouri’s defense is about as bad as its offense is good. They are 104th in Total Defense and 106th in Scoring Defense, giving up 441 yards and 33.6 points per game. They’re particularly bad against the pass, giving up 260 passing yards per game, and they’re not much better against the run, as they also give up 181 rushing yards per game.
While that’s all good news for a struggling offense, what isn’t good news is that Missouri somehow continues to develop havoc-wreakers on the defensive line. Despite not being particularly good overall on defense, they are extremely effective at creating a mess behind the line of scrimmage. They’re 14th in tackles for loss and 31st in sacks, and that’s frightening news for a makeshift Tennessee offensive line down to its final few available players.
| Stat | MO |
|---|---|
| Blocked Punts Allowed | 1 |
| Net Punting | 5 |
| Punt Return Defense | 18 |
| Punt Returns | 26 |
| Kickoff Returns | 36 |
| Kickoff Return Defense | 88 |
| Blocked Kicks Allowed | 91 |
| Stat | MO |
|---|---|
| Fewest Penalty Yards | 64 |
| Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game | 65 |
| Fewest Penalties | 79 |
| Fewest Penalties Per Game | 80 |
| Fumbles Lost | 96 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 107 |
| Turnovers Lost | 108 |
| Turnovers Gained | 110 |
| Turnover Margin | 118 |
Special teams, Turnovers, and Penalties observations. Missouri appears to be solid when punting and dangerous when returning punts and kickoffs. Their kick return defense, however, is vulnerable, and that’s excellent news for Tennessee, especially if Evan Berry is able to go.
Missouri hasn’t been particularly good or lucky in the hidden yardage stats. They’re committing a lot of penalties for a lot of yards, and they’re not winning on turnovers at all.
Missouri’s good at:
Missouri’s not good at:
Catastrophe strikes, with two successive blue shells knocking the leaders back into the pack and two thunderbolts turning the track into quicksand. Play by play below.
| Daetilus | 74 |
| Marietta Vol | 69 |
| Raven17 | 66 |
| Evan | 64 |
| Joel Hollingsworth | 62 |
| Josh Farrar | 61 |
| Dave Strunk | 60 |
| Fatso | 59 |
| Sam | 59 |
| TennVol95 | 53 |
Q: Who catches the first pass for the Vols? (5-20 points)
A:Â A receiver (5 points) (Marquez Callaway)
Nine players get this right and get 5 points for it.
Mushrooms: Evan and Jayyyy
Bananas: Marietta Vol and LTVol99
Blue shells and bolts: A blue shell reaches the front and blows up Daetilus, the second time he’s been hit this season. He loses 10 points and Evan ties him for the lead. There is one other shell right behind it. Meanwhile, TennVol95 draws a thunderbolt and claims the next question all to himself.
Top 10 after Round 1:
| Daetilus | 69 |
| Evan | 69 |
| Josh Farrar | 66 |
| Raven17 | 66 |
| Dave Strunk | 65 |
| Sam | 64 |
| Marietta Vol | 64 |
| Fatso | 64 |
| Joel Hollingsworth | 62 |
| RandyH | 54 |
Q: How many points do the Vols score this weekend? (5-10 points)
A: 21-28 (5 points) (24)
Eight players would have gotten five points for this, but TennVol95’s thunderbolt put the restrictors on everybody for this round. Unfortunately for TennVol95, he didn’t get the question right. NO POINTS FOR YOU!
Mushrooms: Sam gets both of these.
Bananas: Evan and me
Blue shells and bolts: The next blue shell reaches the top and takes out both Daetilus (his third of the season) and Evan. They both lose 10 points. And just to keep the chaos dialed up, RandyH draws a thunderbolt for himself.
Daetilus drops all the way to seventh, and we have a brand new set up front-runners led by Sam.
Top 10 after Round 2:
| Sam | 74 |
| Josh Farrar | 66 |
| Raven17 | 66 |
| Dave Strunk | 65 |
| Marietta Vol | 64 |
| Fatso | 64 |
| Daetilus | 59 |
| Joel Hollingsworth | 57 |
| Evan | 54 |
| RandyH | 54 |
Q: Who wins, and by how much? (10 points)
A: Vols, by 7 or more (10 points) (14)
Eleven players would have gotten 10 points for this, but for RandyH’s thunderbolt, but he gained no ground because he got the question wrong.
Mushrooms: Marietta Vol and Displaced_Vol_Fan
Bananas: Dave Strunk and MitchellK
Blue shells and bolts:Â There are no blue shells or bolts.
Top 10 after Round 3:
| Sam | 74 |
| Marietta Vol | 69 |
| Josh Farrar | 66 |
| Raven17 | 66 |
| Fatso | 64 |
| Dave Strunk | 60 |
| Daetilus | 59 |
| Joel Hollingsworth | 57 |
| Evan | 54 |
| RandyH | 54 |
| Player | Prior | Prior Specials | R1 | R1 Sub | R1 Specials | R1 Total | R2 | R2 Sub | R2 Specials | R2 Total | R3 | R3 Sub | R3 Specials | R3 Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daetilus | 64 | 10 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 | ||||||
| Marietta Vol | 64 | 10 | 74 | 74 | 74 | -5 | 69 | 69 | 69 | |||||
| Raven17 | 51 | 10 | 61 | 5 | 66 | 66 | 5 | 71 | 71 | -5 | 66 | |||
| Evan | 39 | 10 | 49 | 49 | 5 | 54 | 5 | 59 | 59 | 5 | 64 | |||
| Joel Hollingsworth | 52 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 10 | 62 | 62 | ||||||
| Josh Farrar | 51 | 10 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | ||||||
| Dave Strunk | 45 | 10 | 55 | 5 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | |||||
| Fatso | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | -5 | 59 | ||||||
| Sam | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | ||||||||||
| TennVol95 | 43 | 10 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | ||||||
| cscott95 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 42 | 42 | 10 | 52 | 52 | |||||
| RandyH | 29 | 29 | 29 | 20 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | ||||||
| Harley | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | |||||||
| MitchellK | 36 | 10 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 46 | ||||||
| LTVol99 | 36 | 10 | 46 | 46 | 46 | -5 | 41 | 41 | 5 | 46 | ||||
| Jayyyy | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | ||||||||||
| PaVol | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | ||||||||||
| Will Shelton | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | ||||||||||
| Oleg Zeltser | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | ||||||||||
| Phil | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | ||||||||||
| Alyas Grey | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | ||||||||||
| RockyTopinKY | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | ||||||||||
| WHODEYVOLS | 0 | 10 | 10 | -5 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | ||||
| vfl_mks | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | ||||||||||
| Packtar | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | ||||||||||
| PaVolFan | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | |||||||
| hoosiervol | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||||||||||
| NJ Vol | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||||||||||
| RockyTop5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||||||||||
| Displaced_Vol_Fan | 12 | 12 | -5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | ||||||
| charles matthews | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | ||||||||||
| GoVols365 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||||||||||
| nelsona350 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Bulldog 85 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||||||
| Jason | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||||||
| driskigm | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||
| Gr82baTNVol | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||
| Rockytop01 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||
| btpenley | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||||||||||
| wreckvol | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||||||||||
| Drew | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||||||||||
| BibleVol | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Craig | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Larry Hildebrand | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| utkjmitch | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| MediocreVOL | 0 | BLUE SHELL | 0 | BLUE SHELL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| GTZW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Volfaninsc | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
