Tennessee-Missouri preview: Tigers players to watch

Yesterday, we looked at what the Missouri Tigers do well and what they don’t do particularly well. Today, we’ll look at the players who make good things happen for the Tigers.

Offense

The Missouri Tigers offense is powered by junior quarterback Drew Lock. Currently, Lock is 176-for-290 for a whopping 2,795 yards and 31 touchdowns. He averages nearly 20 completions per game and nearly 16 yards per completion. You may hear folks talk about Lock being involved in the running game as well, but the stats don’t really bear that out for this season. He’s rushed 28 times for a total of 45 yards in 2017.

Lock does a good job of spreading the wealth, as four wide receivers all average over three receptions per game. Leading the way is senior J’Mon Moore (44 catches for 740 yards and eight touchdowns, an average of 82.22 yards per game). Sophomore Jonathon Johnson is next with 34 catches for 563 yards (62.56 per game) and four TDs, and junior Emanuel Hall follows him with 26 catches for 604 yards and four TDs. Sophomore Dimetrios Mason also averages over three receptions per game but has only 119 yards on the season.

The Tigers rushing attack is by committee, with three backs sharing the load. Senior running back Ish Witter leads the way with 504 yards and three touchdowns. Sophomore Damarea Crockett and freshman Larry Rountree have 481 and 369 yards and two and four touchdowns respectively. Crockett, however, has been injured and is not expected to play against Tennessee.

Defense

The team’s leading tackler is sophomore linebacker Cale Garrett, who has 67 so far this season. Junior linebacker Terez Hall is right behind him with 64.

Where the defense excels, though, is behind the opponent’s line of scrimmage, and leading the way there is junior lineman Terry Becker, Jr.. He has six sacks for 29 yards and six solo tackles for loss. Also making things rough for offensive lines are senior lineman Marcell Frazier (3.5 sacks, 4 solo TFLs), Garrett (2 sacks, 4 solo TFLs), and Hall (a sack and 8 solo TFLs).

The secondary appears to be led by a pair of seniors, Logan Cheadle and Thomas Wilson. Cheadle has an interception, three pass breakups, and four passes defended, while Wilson has an interception, two pass breakups, and three passes defended.

Special Teams

Sophomore kicker Tucker McCann (a fictional name if I’ve ever heard one), is 8-of-10 on field goals this season with one block. He’s had touchbacks on only 31 of 50 kickoffs.

Punter Corey Fatony is almost as good as our own Trevor Daniel, as he ranks 8th in the nation in punting average with 45.6 per punt.

Sophomore Richaud Floyd is the team’s main punt returner, and he took one to the end zone against Idaho.

What does Missouri do well (and not so well)?

Here’s what the NCAA statistics say the Missouri Tigers do well and what they don’t do well, along with what it all might mean for the Vols when they meet up with the Tigers Saturday night.

National Unit Rankings

Offense

Offensive observations. The Missouri Tigers are only 4-5 overall and 1-4 in conference, but they are still sporting the 15th-best offense in the nation. And before you discount that based on their schedule, note that they have played ranked Georgia and Auburn teams, as well as a good South Carolina defense. They’re averaging 484 yards of offense and 36.6 points per game. They’ve scored more points against Georgia than anyone else (28), and at least double every other Georgia opponent but Notre Dame, which was still nine points behind them.

So, yeah. Missouri is good on offense. How do they do it? An excellent passing attack, primarily, with an offensive line giving it plenty of time and protection to operate. The Tigers are giving up less than one sack and less than three tackles for loss per game. They’re getting nearly 315 passing yards per game. They’re both efficient (4th in Team Passing Efficiency) and explosive (7th in Passing Yards per Completion). And they’re good on first down and third down and in the red zone.

If there’s good news for Tennessee’s defense, it’s that Missouri’s running game is not nearly as good as its passing game. It isn’t terrible, though, either, so selling out to stop the passing attack isn’t without risk.

Defense

Defensive observations. Fortunately for the Vols, Missouri’s defense is about as bad as its offense is good. They are 104th in Total Defense and 106th in Scoring Defense, giving up 441 yards and 33.6 points per game. They’re particularly bad against the pass, giving up 260 passing yards per game, and they’re not much better against the run, as they also give up 181 rushing yards per game.

While that’s all good news for a struggling offense, what isn’t good news is that Missouri somehow continues to develop havoc-wreakers on the defensive line. Despite not being particularly good overall on defense, they are extremely effective at creating a mess behind the line of scrimmage. They’re 14th in tackles for loss and 31st in sacks, and that’s frightening news for a makeshift Tennessee offensive line down to its final few available players.

Special teams, Turnovers, and Penalties observations. Missouri appears to be solid when punting and dangerous when returning punts and kickoffs. Their kick return defense, however, is vulnerable, and that’s excellent news for Tennessee, especially if Evan Berry is able to go.

Missouri hasn’t been particularly good or lucky in the hidden yardage stats. They’re committing a lot of penalties for a lot of yards, and they’re not winning on turnovers at all.

Bottom line

Missouri’s good at:

  • Offense, particularly passing offense;
  • Generating sacks and tackles for loss;
  • Punting; and
  • Returning punts and kickoffs

Missouri’s not good at:

  • Defense, particularly pass defense;
  • Covering kickoff returns

 

 

 

Gameday on Rocky Top W10 Guessing Game Results: Massive chaos reigns

Catastrophe strikes, with two successive blue shells knocking the leaders back into the pack and two thunderbolts turning the track into quicksand. Play by play below.

Top 10 as of the end of last week

Daetilus 74
Marietta Vol 69
Raven17 66
Evan 64
Joel Hollingsworth 62
Josh Farrar 61
Dave Strunk 60
Fatso 59
Sam 59
TennVol95 53

 

Round 1

Q: Who catches the first pass for the Vols? (5-20 points)

A: A receiver (5 points) (Marquez Callaway)

Nine players get this right and get 5 points for it.

Mushrooms: Evan and Jayyyy

Bananas: Marietta Vol and LTVol99

Blue shells and bolts: A blue shell reaches the front and blows up Daetilus, the second time he’s been hit this season. He loses 10 points and Evan ties him for the lead. There is one other shell right behind it. Meanwhile, TennVol95 draws a thunderbolt and claims the next question all to himself.

Top 10 after Round 1:

Daetilus 69
Evan 69
Josh Farrar 66
Raven17 66
Dave Strunk 65
Sam 64
Marietta Vol 64
Fatso 64
Joel Hollingsworth 62
RandyH 54

 

Round 2

Q: How many points do the Vols score this weekend? (5-10 points)

A: 21-28 (5 points) (24)

Eight players would have gotten five points for this, but TennVol95’s thunderbolt put the restrictors on everybody for this round. Unfortunately for TennVol95, he didn’t get the question right. NO POINTS FOR YOU!

Mushrooms: Sam gets both of these.

Bananas: Evan and me

Blue shells and bolts: The next blue shell reaches the top and takes out both Daetilus (his third of the season) and Evan. They both lose 10 points. And just to keep the chaos dialed up, RandyH draws a thunderbolt for himself.

Daetilus drops all the way to seventh, and we have a brand new set up front-runners led by Sam.

Top 10 after Round 2:

Sam 74
Josh Farrar 66
Raven17 66
Dave Strunk 65
Marietta Vol 64
Fatso 64
Daetilus 59
Joel Hollingsworth 57
Evan 54
RandyH 54

 

Round 3

Q: Who wins, and by how much? (10 points)

A: Vols, by 7 or more (10 points) (14)

Eleven players would have gotten 10 points for this, but for RandyH’s thunderbolt, but he gained no ground because he got the question wrong.

Mushrooms: Marietta Vol and Displaced_Vol_Fan

Bananas: Dave Strunk and MitchellK

Blue shells and bolts: There are no blue shells or bolts.

Top 10 after Round 3:

Sam 74
Marietta Vol 69
Josh Farrar 66
Raven17 66
Fatso 64
Dave Strunk 60
Daetilus 59
Joel Hollingsworth 57
Evan 54
RandyH 54

 

Full table

Player Prior Prior Specials R1 R1 Sub R1 Specials R1 Total R2 R2 Sub R2 Specials R2 Total R3 R3 Sub R3 Specials R3 Total
Daetilus 64 10 74 74 74 74 74 74
Marietta Vol 64 10 74 74 74 -5 69 69 69
Raven17 51 10 61 5 66 66 5 71 71 -5 66
Evan 39 10 49 49 5 54 5 59 59 5 64
Joel Hollingsworth 52 52 52 52 52 10 62 62
Josh Farrar 51 10 61 61 61 61 61 61
Dave Strunk 45 10 55 5 60 60 60 60 60
Fatso 64 64 64 64 64 64 -5 59
Sam 59 59 59 59
TennVol95 43 10 53 53 53 53 53 53
cscott95 22 22 22 20 42 42 10 52 52
RandyH 29 29 29 20 49 49 49 49
Harley 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
MitchellK 36 10 46 46 46 46 46 46
LTVol99 36 10 46 46 46 -5 41 41 5 46
Jayyyy 34 34 34 34
PaVol 32 32 32 32
Will Shelton 31 31 31 31
Oleg Zeltser 28 28 28 28
Phil 28 28 28 28
Alyas Grey 26 26 26 26
RockyTopinKY 26 26 26 26
WHODEYVOLS 0 10 10 -5 5 20 25 25 25 25
vfl_mks 22 22 22 22
Packtar 13 13 13 13
PaVolFan 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
hoosiervol 9 9 9 9
NJ Vol 8 8 8 8
RockyTop5 8 8 8 8
Displaced_Vol_Fan 12 12 -5 7 7 7 7 7
charles matthews 7 7 7 7
GoVols365 6 6 6 6
nelsona350 6 6 6 6
Bulldog 85 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Jason 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
driskigm 5 5 5 5
Gr82baTNVol 5 5 5 5
Rockytop01 5 5 5 5
btpenley 4 4 4 4
wreckvol 4 4 4 4
Drew 3 3 3 3
BibleVol 1 1 1 1
Craig 1 1 1 1
Larry Hildebrand 1 1 1 1
utkjmitch 1 1 1 1
MediocreVOL 0 BLUE SHELL 0 BLUE SHELL 0 0 0 0 0
GTZW 0 0 0 0
Volfaninsc 0 0 0 0

Crafdog wins Week 10 of the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em Contest

Congratulations to crafdog, who went finished first with an 18-2 record in a very tough week for the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em Pool. He wins a Gameday on Rocky Top t-shirt from our custom tee store, Web Community Tees. Also, congrats to Anaconda, who won last week. He or she also gets a free tee.

Gameday on Rocky Top Logo Tee

Crafdog and Anaconda, watch for a message from me on how to get your tee.

Birdjam is now in the lead in the overall standings.

Here are the full results for this week:.

Rank Selection Name W-L Pts Tie Breaker Game (10-24)
1 crafdog 18-2 186 20-30
2 Bulldog 85 16-4 177 20-24
3 Raven17 16-4 176 21-24
4 birdjam 16-4 173 20-24**
4 PAVolFan 15-5 173 28-34
6 rsbrooks25 16-4 172 24-27
7 Phonies 15-5 171 25-30**
7 Anaconda 14-6 171 27-20
9 Jahiegel 14-6 169 18-28**
9 GeorgeMonkey 14-6 169 21-28
9 joeb_1 14-6 169 23-31
12 boro wvvol 15-5 168 14-28**
12 UNDirish60 15-5 168 24-27
12 Volfan2002 14-6 168 24-31
12 alanmar 17-3 168 27-31
16 the-albatross 14-6 167 18-21
17 PrideofTheSouthlandFan 15-5 164 31-20
18 Gman15 15-5 162 27-37
19 mariettavol 15-5 161 17-34**
19 jeremy.waldroop 13-7 161 24-30
19 jfarrar90 14-6 161 27-33
19 LuckyGuess 13-7 161 24-38
23 BZACHARY 15-5 160 0-0
24 C_hawkfan 13-7 159 17-31**
24 ThePowerT 8-Dec 159 28-34
26 ChuckieTVol 13-7 157 20-30
27 Displaced_Vol_Fan 13-7 155 21-26**
27 DinnerJacket 16-4 155 24-28
27 TNann 15-5 155 24-28
30 spartans100 14-6 153 24-31
31 ctull 13-7 152 14-17
32 mmb61 13-7 150 17-37
33 Knottfair 9-Nov 148 27-35
34 mmmjtx 13-7 146 0-0
35 edgarmsmith 14-6 145 21-24**
35 Dylan pickle 14-6 145 37-27
37 Harley 15-5 144 17-31
38 HUTCH 14-6 143 21-24
39 Jrstep 14-6 142 21-0
40 daetilus 8-Dec 141 20-23**
40 Sam 13-7 141 17-16
42 Drew 13-7 138 0-0
43 tpi 13-7 136 0-0
44 vols95 13-7 134 24-31
45 RandyH112 13-7 133 24-28
46 CajunVol 14-6 131 28-17**
46 waltsspac 14-6 131 0-0
48 PensacolaVolFan 14-6 128 17-31**
48 ga26engr 8-Dec 128 17-32
50 ddayvolsfan 14-6 127 27-31
51 1hoss2 13-7 119 0-0
52 rollervol 9-Nov 115 16-17
53 patmd 8-Dec 108 24-21
54 Joel @ GRT 8-Dec 104 19-15
55 Techboy 10-Oct 94 0-0
56 Timbuktu126 10-Oct 79 11-13
57 bking 0-20 78 0-0**
57 RichVols 0-20 78 0-0**
57 Will Shelton 0-20 78 -
57 aquasox 0-20 78 -
57 jstorie1 0-20 78 -
57 TennVol95 in 3D! 0-20 78 -
57 mobilevol 0-20 78 -
57 sncdaisy 0-20 78 -
57 BritishVol 0-20 78 -
57 901Vol 0-20 78 -
57 The Alyas Greys 0-20 78 -
57 EVOL 0-20 78 -
57 dgibbs 0-20 78 -
57 chuckiepoo 0-20 78 -
57 CNMcCreary 0-20 78 -
57 IBleedVolOrange 0-20 78 -
57 VandyVol 0-20 78 -
57 Jaywine 0-20 78 -
57 wreckvol 0-20 78 -
57 rockytopinky 0-20 78 -
57 OriginalVol1814 0-20 78 -
57 rockhopper78 0-20 78 -
57 KeepsCornInAJar 0-20 78 -
57 PaVol 0-20 78 -
57 T dog 0-20 78 -
57 kmchugh 0-20 78 -
57 waitwhereami 0-20 78 -
57 ltvol99 0-20 78 -
57 over754ut 0-20 78 -
57 tdrb42 0-20 78 -
57 wedflatrock 0-20 78 -
57 biologydropout 0-20 78 -
57 utkjmitch 0-20 78 -
57 SouthernDCist 0-20 78 -
57 rudydog 0-20 78 -
57 MeytonPanning 0-20 78 -
57 Rossboro 0-20 78 -
57 DCVFL 0-20 78 -
57 VillaVol 0-20 78 -
57 ed75 0-20 78 -
57 Volboy 0-20 78 -
57 BlountVols 0-20 78 -
57 jobliner 0-20 78 -
57 memphispete 0-20 78 -

 

And here are the current overall standings after Week 8:

Rank Selection Name W-L Pts
1 birdjam 159-41 1801
2 joeb_1 153-47 1792
3 UNDirish60 156-44 1781
4 Phonies 158-42 1780
4 Volfan2002 154-46 1780
6 PAVolFan 153-47 1771
7 Knottfair 152-48 1768
8 GeorgeMonkey 149-51 1764
9 C_hawkfan 154-46 1762
10 jfarrar90 154-46 1758
11 Displaced_Vol_Fan 147-53 1754
11 spartans100 159-41 1754
13 ChuckieTVol 151-49 1753
14 Jahiegel 153-47 1752
15 PrideofTheSouthlandFan 156-44 1744
16 mariettavol 152-48 1729
17 Anaconda 139-61 1724
18 mmmjtx 155-45 1720
19 rsbrooks25 155-45 1713
19 BZACHARY 147-53 1713
21 Joel @ GRT 155-45 1695
22 Raven17 144-56 1693
23 ThePowerT 139-61 1687
24 mmb61 146-54 1666
25 edgarmsmith 149-51 1663
26 vols95 141-59 1640
27 CajunVol 150-50 1634
28 alanmar 154-46 1631
29 DinnerJacket 145-55 1622
30 tpi 152-48 1615
31 LuckyGuess 136-64 1614
32 ctull 143-57 1600
33 Gman15 143-57 1595
34 waltsspac 141-59 1568
34 chuckiepoo 125-75 1568
36 boro wvvol 132-68 1560
37 jeremy.waldroop 137-63 1517
38 ltvol99 124-76 1492
39 daetilus 126-74 1484
40 Sam 128-72 1482
41 Rossboro 115-85 1473
42 TNann 142-58 1472
43 ga26engr 137-63 1469
44 tdrb42 126-74 1445
45 1hoss2 131-69 1440
46 crafdog 138-62 1426
47 OriginalVol1814 107-93 1422
48 ddayvolsfan 130-70 1414
49 rockhopper78 107-93 1413
50 bking 123-77 1411
51 HUTCH 132-68 1409
52 Bulldog 85 124-76 1387
53 BlountVols 106-94 1377
54 Drew 116-84 1370
55 patmd 133-67 1365
56 Jrstep 125-75 1356
57 IBleedVolOrange 116-84 1305
58 rollervol 121-79 1295
58 VillaVol 89-111 1295
60 ed75 98-102 1246
61 Techboy 115-85 1228
62 Timbuktu126 113-87 1214
63 dgibbs 77-123 1182
64 VandyVol 88-112 1176
65 RichVols 80-120 1175
66 mobilevol 86-114 1151
66 utkjmitch 76-124 1151
68 Jaywine 92-108 1134
69 PensacolaVolFan 110-90 1127
70 Volboy 73-127 1124
71 RandyH112 110-90 1122
72 Harley 108-92 1119
73 jstorie1 72-128 1107
74 the-albatross 93-107 1094
75 TennVol95 in 3D! 71-129 1074
76 waitwhereami 61-139 1069
77 wreckvol 60-140 1061
78 KeepsCornInAJar 61-139 1059
79 Dylan pickle 102-98 1052
80 aquasox 72-128 1027
81 Will Shelton 52-148 1024
82 biologydropout 47-153 1018
83 SouthernDCist 57-143 1002
84 EVOL 42-158 998
85 MeytonPanning 55-145 997
86 rudydog 56-144 992
87 kmchugh 31-169 935
88 BritishVol 39-161 934
89 CNMcCreary 50-150 920
90 rockytopinky 56-144 900
91 jobliner 38-162 895
92 sncdaisy 40-160 886
93 over754ut 29-171 864
94 DCVFL 21-179 809
95 memphispete 18-182 800
96 901Vol 18-182 797
97 T dog 0-200 731
97 wedflatrock 0-200 731
99 The Alyas Greys 15-185 678
100 PaVol 5-195 609

Vols weekly stat rankings: Offense not really improving as expected after Alabama, Georgia

Here’s our regular look at the Tennessee Volunteers’ national rankings in all of the various NCAA statistical categories. Offense is still a problem, and does not appear to be improving after the nation’s toughest defenses have rotated off the schedule. The defense has issues as well, but it has also improved dramatically against the pass since last season.

Offense

Tennessee’s offensive stat rankings after Week 10 (click link for full table)

Offensive observations. The offense really started tanking after the UMass game. The especially surprising thing, though, is that it hasn’t gotten any better after the Georgia and Alabama games.

Defense

Tennessee’s defense stat rankings after Week 10 (click link for full table)

Defensive observations. Lost in the noise this year is that defensive backs coach Charlton Warren and his guys have not only fixed one of the biggest problems of the 2016 season — passing yards allowed — they have turned it into an actual elite strength. Nine games in, and nobody’s passing for a lot of yards against the Vols.

Special Teams

Tennessee’s special teams stat rankings after Week 10 (click link for full table)

Special teams observations. Coverage on both punts and kickoffs still needs to be shored up, but special teams is not the problem for Team 121.

Turnovers and Penalties

Tennessee’s turnover and penalty stat rankings after Week 10 (click link for full table)

Turnovers and Penalties observations. These numbers are not terrible, but could be improved. And the timing of the penalties has been an issue for much of the season.

Tennessee’s season-ending forecast: two of three will be tough

With three games to go, the Vols are hoping to win out but may be looking at a rough finish instead.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

The Vols after Southern Miss

The Vols got a much-needed win against the Golden Eagles, but a win over a 5-4 Conference USA team doesn’t provide much boost in expectations the rest of the way. The defense is finding itself, and the offense got over its allergy to the end zone this week, but they are THIN on that side of the ball. For now, any change in expectations for the last three games will have to come, if at all, from the opponents.

The Vols’ future opponents

11/11/17: Missouri (4-5, 1-4 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
  • W2: Lost to South Carolina, 31-13.
  • W3: Lost to Purdue, 35-3.
  • W4: Lost to #15 Auburn, 51-14.
  • W5: Bye
  • W6: Lost to Kentucky, 40-34.
  • W7: Lost to #4 Georgia, 53-28.
  • W8: Beat Idaho, 68-21.
  • W9: Beat UConn, 52-12.
  • W10: Beat Florida, 45-16.
  • W11: Tennessee
  • W12: At Vanderbilt
  • W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Missouri, which had lost five of its first six games, has now won its last three, including a jack-hammering of the Florida Gators. We’ll obviously take a closer look at these guys all this upcoming week, but they look like they could be a real problem for the Vols this weekend. I’d had the game at 50/50 for the past several weeks, but I’m putting it at 40% now.

PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
70 65 70 70 70 50 50 50 50 50 40

11/18/17: LSU (6-3, 3-2 SEC, #19)

  • W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
  • W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
  • W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
  • W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
  • W5: Lost at home, during Homecoming, to Troy, 24-21.
  • W6: Beat #21 Florida, 17-16.
  • W7: Beat #10 Auburn, 27-23.
  • W8: Beat Ole Miss, 40-24.
  • W9: Bye
  • W10: Lost to #2 Alabama, 24-10.
  • W11: Arkansas
  • W12: At #25 Tennessee
  • W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: LSU actually outgained Alabama 306-299, but just couldn’t get points on the board. This one’s tough, but we knew it was going to be tough, so I’m keeping it at 25%.

PREDICTIONS – LSU
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
25 25 25 45 45 50 50 30 25 25 25

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (4-5, 0-5 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
  • W2: Beat Alabama A&M, 42-0.
  • W3: Beat #19 Kansas State, 14-7.
  • W4: Lost to #1 Alabama, 59-0.
  • W5: Lost to #21 Florida, 38-24.
  • W6: Lost to #5 Georgia, 45-14.
  • W7: Lost to Ole Miss, 57-35.
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: Lost to South Carolina, 34-27.
  • W10: Beat Western Kentucky, 31-17.
  • W11: Kentucky
  • W12: Missouri
  • W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: Vanderbilt milked that Kansas State win for everything it was worth, but then went on a five-game losing streak against a gauntlet of a schedule. The win against WKU this weekend confirms that they’re still a threat to a struggling Tennessee team. Keeping this a 50/50 game.

PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13
72 72 65 55 55 50 50 50 50 50 50

All of that puts me at 5.15 wins. Use this form to get your own calculation:

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia Tech (4-4, 3-3 ACC, RV)

No shame in losing to Clemson, but the loss this week to Virginia has to hurt.

Indiana State (0-9, 0-6 MVFC, NR)

  • W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
  • W2: Lost to Tennessee, 42-7.
  • W3: Lost to Liberty, 42-41 on a blocked 23-yard field goal attempt as time expired.
  • W4: Bye
  • W5: Lost to Illinois State, 24-13.
  • W6: Lost to North Dakota State, 52-0.
  • W7: Lost to South Dakota, 56-6.
  • W8: Lost to S Illinois, 45-24.
  • W9: Lost to Missouri State, 59-20.
  • W10: Lost to Youngstown State, 66-24.
  • W11: W Illinois
  • W12: At Northern Iowa

Florida (3-5, 3-4 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
  • W2: Canceled game with N Colorado.
  • W3: Beat #25 Tennessee, 26-20.
  • W4: Beat Kentucky, 28-27.
  • W5: Beat Vanderbilt, 38-24.
  • W6: Lost to LSU, 17-16 on a missed extra point due to a bad snap and hold.
  • W7: Lost to Texas A&M, 19-17.
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: Lost to #3 Georgia, 42-7. Fired their coach.
  • W10: Lost at Missouri, 45-16.
  • W11: At South Carolina
  • W12: UAB
  • W13: Florida State

Four-game losing streak for the Gators.

UMass (2-7, 0-0 IND, NR)

  • W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
  • W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
  • W3: Lost to Old Dominion, 17-7.
  • W4: Lost to Temple, 29-21.
  • W5: Lost to Tennessee, 17-13.
  • W6: Lost to Ohio, 58-50.
  • W7: Bye
  • W8: At USF (canceled)
  • W9: Beat Ga Southern, 55-20.
  • W10: Beat Appalachian State in double overtime, 30-27.
  • W11: Lost to #16 Mississippi State, 34-23.
  • W12: Maine
  • W13: At BYU

Georgia (9-0, 6-0 SEC, #1)

  • W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
  • W2: Beat #24 Notre Dame, 20-19.
  • W3: Beat Samford, 42-14.
  • W4: Easily handled #17 Mississippi State, 31-3.
  • W5: Demoralized Tennessee, 41-0.
  • W6: Beat Vanderbilt, 45-14.
  • W7: Beat Missouri, 53-28.
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: Beat Florida, 42-7.
  • W10: Beat South Carolina, 24-10.
  • W11: At #13 Auburn
  • W12: Kentucky
  • W13: At Georgia Tech

I think these guys have the best chance of anyone toppling Alabama in a long time.

South Carolina (6-3, 4-3 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
  • W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
  • W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
  • W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
  • W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-17.
  • W6: Beat Arkansas, 48-22.
  • W7: Beat Tennessee, 15-9.
  • W8: Bye
  • W9: Beat Vanderbilt, 34-27.
  • W10: Lost to #1 Georgia, 24-10.
  • W11: Florida
  • W12: Wofford
  • W13: Clemson

Alabama (9-0, 6-0 SEC, #2)

  • W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
  • W2: Beat Fresno State, 41-10.
  • W3: Beat Colorado State, 41-23.
  • W4: Beat Vanderbilt, 59-0.
  • W5: Beat Ole Miss, 66-3.
  • W6: Beat Texas A&M, 27-19.
  • W7: Beat Arkansas, 41-9.
  • W8: Beat Tennessee, 45-7.
  • W9: Bye
  • W10: Beat #19 LSU, 24-10.
  • W11: At Mississippi State
  • W12: Mercer
  • W13: At #13 Auburn

Kentucky (6-3, 3-3 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
  • W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
  • W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
  • W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
  • W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
  • W6: Beat Missouri, 40-34.
  • W7: Bye
  • W8: Lost to Mississippi State, 45-7.
  • W9: Best Tennessee, 29-26.
  • W10: Lost to Ole Miss, 37-34.
  • W11: At Vanderbilt
  • W12: At #15 Georgia
  • W13: #17 Lousiville

Southern Miss (5-4, 3-2 C-USA, NR)

  • W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
  • W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
  • W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
  • W4: Bye
  • W5: Lost to North Texas, 43-28.
  • W6: Beat UTSA, 31-29.
  • W7: Beat UTEP, 24-0.
  • W8: Beat LA Tech, 34-27 in double overtime.
  • W9: Lost to UAB, 30-12.
  • W10: Lost to Tennessee, 24-10.
  • W11: At Rice
  • W12: Charlotte
  • W13: At Marshall

Tennessee 24, Southern Miss 10: Finally, a Win

 

None of Tennessee’s off-field drama carried over between the lines in Saturday night’s 24-10 homecoming win over Southern Mississippi.

So much for the #EmptyNeyland campaign, too. There were more than 95,000 people in Neyland Stadium to watch the Vols beat the Mustard Buzzards, er, Golden Eagles. Yes, it was just a two-touchdown win over a Conference USA Team, but any win for a 4-5 team should feel good.

It isn’t going to change any of the lingering big-picture frustrations, and, given Missouri’s 45-16 win at home over Florida on Saturday prior to hosting the Vols next week, it may not change the ultimate fruitless outcome of the season, but a win is a win is a win.

The best fans in the country were treated to a victory. That’s all that needs to be said tonight. Save the grumpiness for tomorrow.

A skeleton crew of Vols who were down to five scholarship offensive linemen after a few injuries during the game and who were forced to rip the redshirt off once fourth-string quarterback Will McBride reached deep down and pulled out a strong defensive performance to get their first win since a 17-13 escape over UMass back on September 23 that felt like a loss.

Thank goodness.

Listen: Everybody deals with adversity in different ways. For me, it’s snark, as you’ve probably seen on my Twitter account the past few weeks in trying to cope with the baffling fifth season of the Butch Jones tenure. Some people quit [as we know all too well at UT]. Others go extreme and pull for losses. Still, others elect to give up or lash out with meanness that is unnecessary.

Whatever is going to happen with the Jones tenure is going to happen. Most likely, the decision already has been made. Regardless, your 140 characters won’t make a difference. In reality, a win over Southern Miss likely won’t make much of one, either, but it may delay the inevitable another week.

It may not, depending on investigations and nasty endings and witch hunts and reasons to look for cause.

Ultimately, that’s none of our decisions to make.

But for the players remaining on the field Saturday night, they responded to adversity with a victory. They sang Rocky Top. A few players even did backflips. These kids didn’t care that they beat a team they were supposed to beat. They won again. That’s all that mattered. Good for them with all the crap they’ve had to endure.

There were more than a few smiles on the sideline, which was nice to see after a week filled with the Brett Kendrick concussion drama and the abrupt departure of Vol for Life coordinator Antone Davis, who inserted his own parting shots at Jones on his way out the door.

The players deserve better than what they’ve endured this year, and the fans deserve better, too. Saturday was better. Even if it only meant going from three wins to four wins and inching closer to bowl eligibility with games remaining against Missouri, LSU and Vanderbilt.

None of those games look easy, and UT should probably be underdogs in all three. If you’re in the camp of wanting the Vols to lose to force Jones’ ouster, well, first of all, shame on you. Secondly, you’ll probably still get your wish. So, let those of us who pull for Tennessee to win every game be happy for a night.

What happened on the field against the Golden Eagles didn’t change anything. The Vols are still bad; possibly the worst team in the SEC. They are still 0-5 in the league, which is still unacceptable. Though the defense looked better, it was against a C-USA team that has been far from prolific. Though Vols quarterback Jarrett Guarantano looked OK while he was in there, an ankle injury forced him out and McBride in. The true freshman backup looked about like you’d expect him to.

McBride finished 1-of-8 passing for 13 yards. He had four carries for 7 yards. Tennessee couldn’t manufacture first downs with him in there and limped out the win, which probably was only possible because the defense made some momentum-swinging plays like an Emmanuel Moseley interception and a Darrell Taylor-forced fumble recovered by Rashaan Gaulden.

If you’re a football dermatologist looking for the team’s warts, there are still plenty. The only thing the game against USM did was give us that old time feeling of winning again, and on homecoming, no less.

I don’t know how Tennessee is going to even field a team over the next few weeks, there are so many injuries. The SEC Network reported that Evan Berry was carted off the field at halftime [But, hey! At least we got to see him return one last kick to near midfield to set up a game-opening touchdown!]. Jonathan Kongbo was suspended for a violation of team rules, and, in this day and age of endless Tennessee drama, who knows what he did? Guarantano didn’t return in the second half after trying to play, and the offensive line was forced to ask for numerous snaps from a 275-pound converted tight end in Devante Brooks who hadn’t played a snap of organized football in a game since his sophomore year of high school.

It isn’t so much raining in Knoxville as coming a tornado with neck-deep water already on the ground.

Now, they’ve got to travel to Columbia to take on a Mizzou team that left the ranks of the winless in conference play on Saturday by throwing up 45 on a Gators team that, even though they beat the Vols, are in the same boat as the Vols.

After that, an LSU team that played hard in Tuscaloosa before predictably succumbing. Then, the Vols will play Vanderbilt, and let’s all hope they can find a way to win that one.

There’s no reason to think anything about a rosy future even though Tennessee won Saturday night. There are too many remnants of what we currently are to change anybody’s long-term thoughts about the direction of the program under Jones.

But Saturday night was about winning another football game. It was about McBride’s redshirt not being burned in vain. It was about Brooks playing well though he’s far from in SEC shape yet. It was about the much-maligned Moseley getting an important interception to win a game during his senior year. It was about John Kelly coming back from a one-game suspension to rush for a pair of touchdowns.

For some of you, it’s about Jones failing to coach great and seize the win as much as Southern Miss giving the Vols the game with mistakes. For others, it’s about you [rightly] questioning offensive coordinator Larry Scott failing to give Ty Chandler more than 11 touches after answering “God, yes” when asked if he needed to get his hands on the ball more. [In Scott’s defense, Chandler struggled behind the makeshift offensive line with just 15 yards]. For others still, it’s about potentially keeping Jones for yet another week when you just want finality to his era.

I understand all that. I’m in both camps. I’m happy with the win but mad about the season. I’m encouraged about the response from the remnants of an SEC team with the knowledge that this team likely isn’t going to win an SEC game unless it plays much better than it has over the past month-plus. I want another coach and another direction, but I still can’t help but root for Jones to make the right calls from the sideline while he’s on the sideline and for the kids to make the plays to win the game.

Saturday night, they won the game. Weeping remains in this dreadful 2017 season. So does gnashing of teeth. For a night, just be happy.

What channel is the Vols game on: The Tennessee-Southern Miss online game-watching party

The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles tonight at Neyland Stadium. The game kicks off at 7:30 and will be televised on the SEC Network. Brace for a closer-than-expected game, as the humans and machines disagree on the winner. Here’s to staving off the dominion of the machines for another day.

Go Vols.

Tennessee-Southern Miss Statsy Preview: Machines and humans in disagreement

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine, on a bit of a roll the past couple of weeks, now takes a look at Tennessee’s game against Southern Miss this Saturday night in Knoxville. Word of warning: You’re not going to like what it’s spitting out.

The SPM itself is giving the game to Southern Miss, with a score of 18.5-14.8, so . . . 19-15. If you think that discredits the thing entirely, I’ll point out that S&P+ likes the Golden Eagles by an even greater margin.

I’m pretty fond of my humble little SPM, but I’m still not buying that, so I’ve adjusted my own predictions to Tennessee, 23-14.

Before we get to the particulars, though, let’s have a look at Southern Miss’ resume to date to see whether and to what degree a statistical comparison of the two teams might need to be adjusted for strength of schedule.

Southern Miss’ Schedule (5-3, 3-2 C-USA, NR)

  • W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
  • W2: Beat Southern, 45-0.
  • W3: Beat UL Monroe, 28-17.
  • W4: Bye
  • W5: Lost to North Texas, 43-28.
  • W6: Beat UTSA, 31-29.
  • W7: Beat UTEP, 24-0.
  • W8: Beat LA Tech, 34-27 in double overtime.
  • W9: Lost to UAB, 30-12.
  • W10: At Tennessee
  • W11: At Rice
  • W12: Charlotte
  • W13: At Marshall

That schedule is ranked as the nation’s 87th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is ranked 6th now, so keep that disparity in mind as you look at the stats.

Stats

To Tennessee, Southern Miss’ defense looks most like Georgia Tech and Georgia on the ground, like South Carolina and Georgia Tech through the air, and like Kentucky and South Carolina on the scoreboard. It’s offense looks most like Florida on the ground, like South Carolina and UMass through the air and on the scoreboard.

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 134.4 rushing yards per game, while Southern Mississippi is giving up 127.6 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Southern Mississippi, is Georgia Tech, which is giving up 131.7 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 148 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Southern Mississippi is Georgia, which is allowing 94.8. Tennessee got 62 on the ground against Georgia. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Southern Mississippi is roughly its average of 135.

Southern Mississippi rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 252.3 rushing yards per game, while the Southern Mississippi run game is averaging 175.0 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 170.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 168 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 284.0 rushing yards per game and got 294 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Southern Mississippi will get somewhere around its average of 175 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 174.8 passing yards per game, and Southern Mississippi is allowing 203.9. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is giving up 244.9 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 133 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech. They’re allowing 198.4 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 221 against them. The comps aren’t particularly compelling for this piece, but I’m going with Tennessee putting up 200 passing yards this weekend.

Southern Mississippi passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 148.6 passing yards per game. Southern Mississippi is getting 263.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is getting 219.9 yards per game through the air, and they got 129 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 296.3 passing yards per game and got 137 against Tennessee. I’m going with Southern Mississippi putting up about 130 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 20.4 points per game, and Southern Mississippi is allowing 21.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is allowing 24.9 points per game, and Tennessee got 26 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina. They’re allowing 20.3 points per game, and Tennessee got only 9 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 23 points against Southern Mississippi.

Southern Mississippi scoring

Tennessee is allowing 27.1 points per game. Southern Mississippi is averaging 27.4. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 26.3 points, and they got 15 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 29.9 points and got 13 against Tennessee. I’m going with Southern Mississippi putting up about 14 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

  • Tennessee rushing yards: 135
  • Southern Mississippi rushing yards: 175
  • Tennessee passing yards: 200
  • Southern Mississippi passing yards: 130
  • Tennessee points: 23
  • Southern Mississippi points: 14

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Southern Miss 18.5, Tennessee 14.8.

Current betting lines and other statistical models

My eyeball-adjusted predictions are in agreement with Vegas on the line but not the over/under, as the spread opened at -7, with an over/under of 48.5. That makes it look more like Tennessee, 28-21 or so. That’s also in line with ESPN’s FPI, which gives the Vols an 85.3% chance of beating Southern Miss.

However, the S&P+ likes Southern Miss in this one and gives the Vols a mere 28% chance of winning, setting the game at Southern Miss, 29-18.7.

So although I and the FPI still like the Vols, both S&P+ and the SPM like Southern Miss to win outright.

Last Week

Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and Kentucky last week.

  • Tennessee rushing yards: 120 (actually 203)
  • Kentucky rushing yards: 135 (actually 289)
  • Tennessee passing yards: 220 (actually 242)
  • Kentucky passing yards: 200 (actually 82)
  • Tennessee points: 17 (actually 26)
  • Kentucky points: 20 (actually 29)
  • Winner and Margin of Victory: Kentucky -3 (actually Kentucky -3)

Again, those were eyeball-adjusted numbers. The SPM itself said Kentucky 23.8, Tennessee 18.3.

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Kentucky -5.5, and the SPM said the same thing, so it didn’t play. With human intervention, we went with Tennessee covering, so we’ll call that a win. Overall, the SPM went 30-25 for the week, posting 54.55%. Over the three weeks we’ve been testing it, it’s gone 67.92%, 53.06%, and 54.55% for an overall rate of 58.6%.