Gameday on Rocky Top

Happy Thanksgiving, y’all.

Coming off a big win against No. 18 Purdue yesterday, Tennessee basketball now gets a shot at No. 5 Villanova. The game tips at 12:30 ET and will be televised on ESPN.

If you’re still catching up, check out our recap of the Purdue game and our preview of Villanova.

Go Vols.

I tweeted after the win over Purdue that it was Tennessee’s most valuable victory since Cuonzo Martin’s tenure. To be clear, Rick Barnes and Donnie Tyndall both won games that were big in the moment; any victory over Kentucky is better than beating Purdue on a neutral floor. But in terms of the difference it can make in Tennessee’s season, this is the most valuable win since Tennessee’s run to the 2014 Sweet 16.

We use RPI Wizard a lot on this site; you can use their up-to-the-minute RPI plus Jeff Sagarin’s power ratings to project an end-of-year RPI, plus change any game to a win or loss to see how it might affect the outcome. It’s way too early to worry about overall RPI or any fluid ratings; Sagarin projected the Vols to be around .500 before today, which will certainly change. But even keeping those early projections, it is interesting to note the projected difference in the final RPI based on different outcomes in the Bahamas:

• L Purdue, W Western Kentucky, W NC State: RPI 76
• W Purdue, L Villanova, L SMU: RPI 74
• W Purdue, L Villanova, W SMU: RPI 58

It was better for Tennessee to win today and lose the next two games than lose to Purdue and beat two lesser foes. But even if the Vols fall to Villanova and win the third place game (assuming #2 Arizona is in the finals from the other side of the bracket), the win over Purdue would ultimately create an opportunity to be 15-20 spots better in RPI by March.

There are plenty of what-ifs when you play overtime, and both teams would prefer not to turn the ball over a combined 33 times. But the Vols survived Purdue going 21-of-25 at the free throw line (while Tennessee was only 11-of-12) by grabbing a staggering 20 offensive rebounds. Nine of those came from Grant Williams and Kyle Alexander against Purdue’s tall trees.

Last year the Vols would have needed to be the team shooting 25 free throws to win a game like this. We said in our season preview Tennessee needed better offense to get better shots, because the Vols struggled to win ugly last year. In their first meaningful contest today, ugly was beautiful:

• Last year the Vols were 1-11 when shooting less than 39.5%. Today they won shooting just 36.3%.
• Last year the Vols were 3-15 when they had 15 assists or less. Today they won with 14 assists and 15 turnovers.
• And in overtime, when the game got a lot prettier, the Vols kept pace. Tennessee tied Purdue in 40 minutes of regulation in a game in the low 60’s, then beat them in five minutes of overtime played at the pace of a game in the 100’s.

And they did this against #18 Purdue, a team with legitimate Final Four aspirations coming in; the Boilermakers were 11th in KenPom coming into today.

Up next: Villanova, the number one team in the nation in KenPom coming into today.

If Purdue tested Tennessee’s readiness, Villanova will test their ceiling. The 2016 champs were 31-3 last year heading back to the tournament, but were stunned by Wisconsin 65-62 in the second round. They lost first round draft pick Josh Hart and title hero Kris Jenkins, but the rest of their crew is back.

How do you go 31-3? Last year Nova was eighth nationally in field goal percentage, second in two-point percentage, and third in free throw percentage. Then they defended without fouling, allowing just 445 free throws in 36 games (12.3 per game), the second fewest in the nation despite playing extra tournament games.

The primary test with Purdue was inside, but the opposite will be true with the Wildcats. Guards Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, and Donte DiVincenzo lead the way; those three combined for 49 of their 66 points in an eight-point win over Western Kentucky. 6’9″ Eric Paschall is also a threat. And the defending without fouling thing held up again:  WKU attempted four free throws, ensuring a loss despite shooting 7-of-11 from the arc.

Take away a scoreless minute from Yves Pones, and the Vols played a 10-man rotation against Purdue. Six players did the heavy lifting, all of them veterans:  the starting five of Bone, Bowden, Schofield, Williams, and Alexander all played 26-34 minutes, and Lamonte Turner added 33 off the bench while scoring 17 points. But we saw both Schofield (team-high 34 minutes) and Bone get banged up late; Schofield returned from a shoulder scare while Bone’s ankle kept him off the floor late, and it’ll be interesting to see how ready they are 24 hours later.

Turner and Williams will get the praise, but the biggest deal today was Kyle Alexander:  13 points and 11 rebounds while dealing with two seven footers from Purdue. He had two critical buckets in overtime, one of them a three. We’ll need to see more of that before we can expect it, but if Alexander can help Tennessee win big games down the stretch? That’s a big difference between last year and this one.

Purdue was a gatekeeper game; now that the Vols are through they’ll reap the strength-of-schedule benefits in a pure opportunity test against Villanova. Another golden opportunity would presumably await against #2 Arizona if Tennessee wins…but if Tennessee beats Purdue and Villanova on consecutive days, I’m not sure the bubble is the most relevant conversation. The Vols got their quality win and have given themselves a chance to make a serious upgrade in their resume with another win on Friday. Or they could beat Villanova, and we’ll start talking about loftier things.

It’s been a long autumn around here. Today was excellent. Let’s do that again.

Go Vols.

Well that was refreshing. Tennessee basketball, picked 13th in the SEC preseason poll, just beat No. 18 Purdue 78-75 in overtime. Grant Williams led the way with 22 points and 8 rebounds.

For most of the first half, Tennessee really struggled with the height of Purdue, which rotates in two guys who are 7’2″ and 7’3″. They found some room to shoot, but it wasn’t enough to get off their regular shot, as most attempts had to be adjusted to avoid the tree limbs. Eventually, though, excellent ball movement, good shot selection, and great offensive rebounding helped them find their groove, and they tied the game with an emphatic dunk just before heading into the locker room for halftime.

The Vols began the second half the same way, extending their lead to 7 before the Boilermakers began to climb back. At the eleven minute mark, the teams began trading the lead as the Vols again began having trouble finding comfortable shots.

With 18 seconds left, Purdue led by 3 and had the ball, but the Vols’ Lamonte Turner, who’d gotten hot earlier in the game but had cooled a bit by this time, dribbled around the arc using Grant Williams as a shield, found some space, and hit a three-pointer to tie the game with 5 seconds left. Purdue missed a three-point attempt of its own, and the game went to overtime.

The Boilermakers raced out to a quick 5-point lead early in the overtime period until Grant Williams decided he’d had enough.

With 2:24 to go, Admiral Schofield missed a three-pointer, but Williams got the board, missed his own put back, got it back again, and put it down. On the next three Vols possessions, Williams hit a jumper, had an impressive assist out of a double team to Kyle Alexander for a dunk, and hit another jumper to take the lead 76-75. When Purdue fouled, James Daniel III hit both free throws, and the Vols held on from there.

Unless you saw the game, you can’t really appreciate how much bigger Purdue’s players were than Tennessee’s, and it’s not like they’re just tall, either. They can play. And yet, Tennessee out-hustled, out-played, and yes, even out-rebounded an incredibly tall and really, really good basketball team.

The jury was still out on the Vols after two dominating wins over lower-level competition to start the season, but no more. Now, Tennessee’s put everyone on notice that they are not the 13th-best team in the SEC. Nowhere near it. They’re good, they’re going to make some real noise this season, and they’re going to be fun to watch.

Next up: Western Kentucky or No. 5 Villanova tomorrow at either 12:30 or 7:00.

Go Vols.

The Tennessee Vols are in the Bahamas today for the Battle 4 Atlantis. Their opening game features a great opportunity to see what they’re made of against No. 18 Purdue. The tip’s at noon Eastern and will be televised on ESPN2.

Opportunity knocks, and she is a lot taller than us.

Tennessee will open the Battle 4 Atlantis on Wednesday at 12:00 PM ET (ESPN2) against #18 Purdue. The Boilermakers have been busy: wins over SIU-Edwardsville, Chicago State, and Fairfield by a combined 132 points. More importantly, they won at Marquette (#55 KenPom) 86-71.

1. Seriously, these dudes are tall.

Purdue was a four-seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament, playing their way to the Sweet 16 before getting obliterated by Kansas. They lost power forward Caleb Swanigan to the first round of the NBA Draft, but all the other contributors are back. That starts with 7’2″ Isaac Haas, averaging 13.5 points and six rebounds in just 18.8 minutes per game so far this year. 6’1″ guard Carson Edwards is shouldering some of Swanigan’s scoring load, getting 18.5 per game so far. And Dakota Mathias makes Purdue an inside-out nightmare: you can double-down on Haas, but Mathias shot 45.3% from the arc last year and is 13-of-16 (81.3%!) so far this year.

Add in 6’8″ Vincent Edwards (averaging a 15-9) and senior guard P.J. Thompson, and you’ve got five guys averaging double figures. And no worries:  when Haas comes out, they replace him, impossibly, with someone even taller in 7’3″ freshman Matt Haarms of the Netherlands.

2. Purdue runs one of the most effective offenses in college basketball.

It’s a small sample size, but as of Monday night the Boilermakers were fifth nationally in field goal percentage, seventh in three point percentage, 11th in blocked shots, and fourth in points per game. But don’t count on it being a fluke:  last year Purdue was 28th in field goal percentage and ninth in three point percentage (40.3%). They are currently seventh in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive ratings. The Vols are currently 34th in those same defensive ratings. But the task, if you will, is tall.

In two games, the Vols have nine players averaging 15+ minutes. One of them is Kyle Alexander, who is of course the only player in orange who can even attempt to look this Purdue front line in the eye. Tennessee did play great basketball on the offensive end at an extreme size disadvantage at Chapel Hill last year, but were still largely undone by 22 offensive rebounds from the Tar Heels.

Tennessee is currently 38th in KenPom and looked as good as you can against the low-level competition they’ve faced. Purdue is a great opportunity, especially with #5 Villanova probably awaiting the winner, but a bad match-up for the Vols on paper. A victory could be a gold mine in RPI and tournament resume. But even if it’s defeat, we’ll learn a lot more about how Rick Barnes wants his rotation to look.

3. …but Tennessee has the makings of their own effective offense.

The Vols have their own inside-out game working in the early going, and would really like to do a younger, smaller version of the Boilermakers’ offensive identity. Tennessee’s most important player is also inside; Grant Williams is averaging 11 points and 9.5 rebounds in 23 minutes, and is 10-of-14 at the free throw line. Admiral Schofield leads the team in scoring so far and is 8-of-9 at the line. And so far, the Vols have been hot from three at 45.2%. Schofield is 4-of-7, Jordan Bone 3-of-4, Jordan Bowden 5-of-7, and Lamonte Turner 4-of-9. The early returns show a much better shooting team; it won’t be so easy against Purdue, but getting good shots through a more effective offense continues to be one of the most important steps this team can take.

Tennessee will need all of that and more to beat Purdue. But even if the Vols fall here to a Final Four contender, continuing to play this well on the offensive end can take the Vols where they want to go this season. It’s a golden opportunity where victory puts you several steps closer to the tournament, but should be educational regardless of outcome. The winner likely gets #5 Villanova, the loser likely gets Western Kentucky.