Tennessee vs NC State Preview

There is no chalk in Atlantis. The seventh-place game features #2 Arizona and #18 Purdue. #5 Villanova won’t see either of them this trip (not that their tournament resume should need the help). And Tennessee, who was supposed to lose to Purdue then face a pair of mid-major foes, will leave the Bahamas with three power conference opponents on their resume.

As such things go, it was always going to be better for the Vols to beat Purdue and lose to Villanova and in the third place game than lose to Purdue and beat two mid-majors. Now, with Wednesday’s quality win checked off the list and the strength-of-schedule boost from facing Villanova added to it, Tennessee gets one more chance to improve their standing in facing NC State.

1. Mark Gottfried -> Kevin Keatts

Last year NC State went 11-2 in non-conference play, then 4-14 in ACC play. Thus ended Mark Gottfried’s time in Raleigh: six years and a pair of Sweet 16’s in the first four, but sub-.500 seasons the last two years. Kevin Keatts is in after three years at UNC-Wilmington and three CAA titles.

Also new is graduate transfer Allerik Freeman, a two-year starter at Baylor. The 6’3″ guard was a 38.9% three-point shooter last year, and is an instant impact scorer for the Wolfpack this season with 16.2 points per game despite shooting just 26.7% from the arc so far. He had 24 in their upset of Arizona in the first round. NC State is 5-1 and 89th in KenPom.

2. Run Run Wolfpack

Tennessee played a 40 minute slugfest with Purdue to get it to overtime, then beat the Boilermakers at a much faster pace to win the extra five minutes. Against Villanova the Vols scored 46 points in the first half. Tennessee’s early returns suggest a team capable of winning a number of different ways.

Today we’ll see how they handle a faster tempo. NC State is 57th on this young season in pace of play, and averages 85.1 points per game. Northern Iowa didn’t slow them down so much as play good defense: in their 64-60 win yesterday, the Wolfpack shot just 33.8% from the floor, 8-of-30 (26.7%) from the arc, and 8-of-13 (61.5%) from the line. It has to feel like a game they should have won from NC State’s perspective.

3. What are we learning about Tennessee?

Take away a couple of bad stretches against Villanova – which will happen against one of the very best teams in the nation – and the Vols have played really good basketball on both ends of the floor. Turnovers led to a flurry of transition buckets for the Wildcats; Tennessee hasn’t been great in transition defense, but the Vols are also getting enough offense (and emphasizing offensive rebound enough) to not find themselves on their heels very often. We’ll see how that plays itself out at a faster pace today.

But two very good signs early for the Vols:  one, Tennessee is shooting 40% from the arc on this young season. It may never be a strength for this team, but they shot in the low 30’s last season. If a performance like 6-of-20 against Villanova can be the basement instead of the average, the Vols are going to win a lot more games this year. Lamonte Turner is 8-of-20 and Jordan Bowden 8-of-15, and they’re both getting much better looks than they saw last year due to better work inside from Grant Williams as well as John Fulkerson and Kyle Alexander.

Two, the Vols have generally played good defense. Purdue shot 37.3% against Tennessee. Villanova’s transition game fueled a stellar second half; the Wildcats finished at 46% from the floor. The Vols have also been hurt by really strong free throw shooting from the other side:  Purdue and Villanova went 54-of-62 (87.1%). That’s not going to show up every night.

How well Tennessee defends today will go a long way to determining how successful this weekend can ultimately be. The resume will be better than it was pre-Bahamas either way, and as long as Purdue gets their act together the Vols have a resume win. But going home 4-1 with a near miss against Villanova and two power conference wins would be a big step forward for this program.

Tennessee’s last day in Atlantis tips off at 2:30 PM ET on ESPN2. Go Vols.

 

Villanova 85, Tennessee 76: Turnovers undo the Vols early in the second half

Tennessee was in control for a portion of its game against the Villanova Wildcats this afternoon in the Bahamas and in the hunt for most of it, but it was lost for a short period to begin the second half and that was all it took to eventually lose 85-76.

The Vols led by 15 at one point and went to the locker room at the half up by 12, but Villanova came out on fire, erased the Vols’ lead and then built one of their own that they held the rest of the way. Tennessee did make a game of it late, climbing to within three points with less than a minute remaining, but with time running out, they had to foul, and Nova doesn’t miss free throws.

Grant Williams once again led the Vols with 20 points and eight rebounds. Admiral Schofield added 16 points, and James Daniel III had 10.

It was a disappointing finish, but the Vols have now proven that they can play with anyone, and it will be interesting to see how the rest of the season shakes out.

The Vols get NC State tomorrow at 2:30, and the game will be televised on ESPN2.

Tennessee Vols vs. Villanova Wildcats: open thread

Happy Thanksgiving, y’all.

Coming off a big win against No. 18 Purdue yesterday, Tennessee basketball now gets a shot at No. 5 Villanova. The game tips at 12:30 ET and will be televised on ESPN.

If you’re still catching up, check out our recap of the Purdue game and our preview of Villanova.

Go Vols.

Jauan Jennings dismissed from the team after release of Instagram video

There are so many things wrong with the Jauan Jennings news that I don’t even know where to start. In case you haven’t heard yet, the news is this: Jennings posted an R-rated (for language) video to Instagram, the sanitized gist of which was that Tennessee’s coaches were liars, and he was going home. Shortly thereafter, interim head coach Brady Hoke announced that Jennings had been dismissed from the team.

First, if you are late to the party, you might have some trouble appreciating the full context of what happened. I saw the video last night. It was a video recording of a phone that was playing the video, but after searching for about 15 minutes this morning, I can no longer find Jenning’s original video. This one from Sports Illustrated is the closest to the original that I’ve found, but it silences out all of the profanity and is incomplete to boot. A sanitized version relating that Jennings called the coaches names doesn’t really give you the full picture. If you’re going to have an opinion, you should find the full video and watch it (alone if you have kids and care about that stuff). He essentially flipped the entire coaching staff an especially angry double bird right to their faces.

But here’s something I don’t think anyone else is talking about yet. Jennings’ Instagram account is apparently private. Sure, he should have known that “private” doesn’t really mean “private” anymore, and he should have expected it to get out, but whatever media source ignored that fact and recorded their own video of the private video for the purpose of making it news probably shouldn’t have done that, either. Some non-media fan probably would have done the same thing at some point (and maybe it even started that way), and it almost certainly would have made the rounds on social media anyway, but do we really want to make public the things college athletes set up as private? This is not a criticism of all of the media reporting the news now that it’s out; it’s questioning the person who, unable to share or embed the video the usual way because of the privacy settings, decided to get around that by recording a video of Jennings’ video and making it news. And if Jennings intentionally allowed known media members into his circle of people entitled to see his private posts, well, then it’s his own fault, because then he essentially said those things right to the media. Regardless, we’re probably talking about this eventually no matter what, but I really don’t like the idea of sharing the actual video publicly unless public sharing was enabled.

Third, I was as shocked as everyone else that the school’s response was to dismiss Jennings from the team. How can an interim coach who’s only technically in charge for one more game of a dying season have the authority to make such a quick and drastic decision impacting the future of the program? It does certainly seem that the most cautious and prudent way out of the mess would have been to instead suspend Jennings indefinitely and wait for the program to settle.

I do think that that is true, but I also feel the need to clarify the narrative a bit. The shorthand for the story is that the interim coach dismissed a star player. That’s partially true but also incomplete. Brady Hoke probably doesn’t actually have the authority to make that call by himself, and he says that he didn’t. Athletic director John Currie was involved as well.

So, Currie probably had the actual authority and the final say. But why such a quick decision under the unique circumstances? Currie showed great patience in making the decision to fire Butch Jones, so why such a quick trigger here? So Jennings has some negative feelings about the coaching staff. Isn’t this the same staff that Currie felt so bad about that he fired them? (Yes, I know only Jones is actually gone right now. But most of the rest are going as well.)

Sure, Jennings didn’t express his message very well at all and shouldn’t have done it on social media, and maybe Currie felt that there was just no going back after that. You can’t stick the double birds in your employer’s face and just expect to go back to your desk when you feel like it. I’d bet that most acting head coaches would have dismissed an active player who did the same thing. It’s not irrational to believe that a player who has done that will never be able to play for the staff he so disrespected again.

But that’s the thing, none of these players are ever going to play for this staff again, not at Tennessee. He criticized, in his own unique way, the outgoing coaching staff, not the one he was playing for. So why not leave the question to the next coach?

Maybe Currie already knows who he’s going to hire. Maybe he consulted privately with that guy or knows what that guy’s decision on Jennings would be, and maybe he wanted to save him the trouble of having to burn some goodwill early by making that hard decision himself.

I don’t know. You don’t know. The whole thing is a terrible mess.

What’s worse, this should have been a time to push the reset button on the program, to purge most of the angst boiling over in the fan base. Who doesn’t love an interim coach? If he wins, cool. If he loses, it’s on the prior coach. And the athletic director had curried some favor with the fan base for making a move on Jones and had been positioned to make them very, very happy with the next hire.

But suddenly, things have soured again. It’s rare that an interim feels the heat of an angry fan base, but Hoke seems to have accomplished that, and Currie has just done considerable damage to any confidence the fan base may have had in him.

We don’t know all of the details. Perhaps Hoke and Currie actually made the right decision based on information that they have but we don’t.

Everything can be fixed by the right hire.

But people are nervous, and this didn’t help.

 

Tennessee vs Villanova Preview

 

I tweeted after the win over Purdue that it was Tennessee’s most valuable victory since Cuonzo Martin’s tenure. To be clear, Rick Barnes and Donnie Tyndall both won games that were big in the moment; any victory over Kentucky is better than beating Purdue on a neutral floor. But in terms of the difference it can make in Tennessee’s season, this is the most valuable win since Tennessee’s run to the 2014 Sweet 16.

We use RPI Wizard a lot on this site; you can use their up-to-the-minute RPI plus Jeff Sagarin’s power ratings to project an end-of-year RPI, plus change any game to a win or loss to see how it might affect the outcome. It’s way too early to worry about overall RPI or any fluid ratings; Sagarin projected the Vols to be around .500 before today, which will certainly change. But even keeping those early projections, it is interesting to note the projected difference in the final RPI based on different outcomes in the Bahamas:

  • L Purdue, W Western Kentucky, W NC State: RPI 76
  • W Purdue, L Villanova, L SMU: RPI 74
  • W Purdue, L Villanova, W SMU: RPI 58

It was better for Tennessee to win today and lose the next two games than lose to Purdue and beat two lesser foes. But even if the Vols fall to Villanova and win the third place game (assuming #2 Arizona is in the finals from the other side of the bracket), the win over Purdue would ultimately create an opportunity to be 15-20 spots better in RPI by March.

There are plenty of what-ifs when you play overtime, and both teams would prefer not to turn the ball over a combined 33 times. But the Vols survived Purdue going 21-of-25 at the free throw line (while Tennessee was only 11-of-12) by grabbing a staggering 20 offensive rebounds. Nine of those came from Grant Williams and Kyle Alexander against Purdue’s tall trees.

Last year the Vols would have needed to be the team shooting 25 free throws to win a game like this. We said in our season preview Tennessee needed better offense to get better shots, because the Vols struggled to win ugly last year. In their first meaningful contest today, ugly was beautiful:

  • Last year the Vols were 1-11 when shooting less than 39.5%. Today they won shooting just 36.3%.
  • Last year the Vols were 3-15 when they had 15 assists or less. Today they won with 14 assists and 15 turnovers.
  • And in overtime, when the game got a lot prettier, the Vols kept pace. Tennessee tied Purdue in 40 minutes of regulation in a game in the low 60’s, then beat them in five minutes of overtime played at the pace of a game in the 100’s.

And they did this against #18 Purdue, a team with legitimate Final Four aspirations coming in; the Boilermakers were 11th in KenPom coming into today.

Up next: Villanova, the number one team in the nation in KenPom coming into today.

If Purdue tested Tennessee’s readiness, Villanova will test their ceiling. The 2016 champs were 31-3 last year heading back to the tournament, but were stunned by Wisconsin 65-62 in the second round. They lost first round draft pick Josh Hart and title hero Kris Jenkins, but the rest of their crew is back.

How do you go 31-3? Last year Nova was eighth nationally in field goal percentage, second in two-point percentage, and third in free throw percentage. Then they defended without fouling, allowing just 445 free throws in 36 games (12.3 per game), the second fewest in the nation despite playing extra tournament games.

The primary test with Purdue was inside, but the opposite will be true with the Wildcats. Guards Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, and Donte DiVincenzo lead the way; those three combined for 49 of their 66 points in an eight-point win over Western Kentucky. 6’9″ Eric Paschall is also a threat. And the defending without fouling thing held up again:  WKU attempted four free throws, ensuring a loss despite shooting 7-of-11 from the arc.

Take away a scoreless minute from Yves Pones, and the Vols played a 10-man rotation against Purdue. Six players did the heavy lifting, all of them veterans:  the starting five of Bone, Bowden, Schofield, Williams, and Alexander all played 26-34 minutes, and Lamonte Turner added 33 off the bench while scoring 17 points. But we saw both Schofield (team-high 34 minutes) and Bone get banged up late; Schofield returned from a shoulder scare while Bone’s ankle kept him off the floor late, and it’ll be interesting to see how ready they are 24 hours later.

Turner and Williams will get the praise, but the biggest deal today was Kyle Alexander:  13 points and 11 rebounds while dealing with two seven footers from Purdue. He had two critical buckets in overtime, one of them a three. We’ll need to see more of that before we can expect it, but if Alexander can help Tennessee win big games down the stretch? That’s a big difference between last year and this one.

Purdue was a gatekeeper game; now that the Vols are through they’ll reap the strength-of-schedule benefits in a pure opportunity test against Villanova. Another golden opportunity would presumably await against #2 Arizona if Tennessee wins…but if Tennessee beats Purdue and Villanova on consecutive days, I’m not sure the bubble is the most relevant conversation. The Vols got their quality win and have given themselves a chance to make a serious upgrade in their resume with another win on Friday. Or they could beat Villanova, and we’ll start talking about loftier things.

It’s been a long autumn around here. Today was excellent. Let’s do that again.

Go Vols.

Tennessee basketball serves notice with 78-75 win over Purdue

Well that was refreshing. Tennessee basketball, picked 13th in the SEC preseason poll, just beat No. 18 Purdue 78-75 in overtime. Grant Williams led the way with 22 points and 8 rebounds.

For most of the first half, Tennessee really struggled with the height of Purdue, which rotates in two guys who are 7’2″ and 7’3″. They found some room to shoot, but it wasn’t enough to get off their regular shot, as most attempts had to be adjusted to avoid the tree limbs. Eventually, though, excellent ball movement, good shot selection, and great offensive rebounding helped them find their groove, and they tied the game with an emphatic dunk just before heading into the locker room for halftime.

The Vols began the second half the same way, extending their lead to 7 before the Boilermakers began to climb back. At the eleven minute mark, the teams began trading the lead as the Vols again began having trouble finding comfortable shots.

With 18 seconds left, Purdue led by 3 and had the ball, but the Vols’ Lamonte Turner, who’d gotten hot earlier in the game but had cooled a bit by this time, dribbled around the arc using Grant Williams as a shield, found some space, and hit a three-pointer to tie the game with 5 seconds left. Purdue missed a three-point attempt of its own, and the game went to overtime.

The Boilermakers raced out to a quick 5-point lead early in the overtime period until Grant Williams decided he’d had enough.

With 2:24 to go, Admiral Schofield missed a three-pointer, but Williams got the board, missed his own put back, got it back again, and put it down. On the next three Vols possessions, Williams hit a jumper, had an impressive assist out of a double team to Kyle Alexander for a dunk, and hit another jumper to take the lead 76-75. When Purdue fouled, James Daniel III hit both free throws, and the Vols held on from there.

Unless you saw the game, you can’t really appreciate how much bigger Purdue’s players were than Tennessee’s, and it’s not like they’re just tall, either. They can play. And yet, Tennessee out-hustled, out-played, and yes, even out-rebounded an incredibly tall and really, really good basketball team.

The jury was still out on the Vols after two dominating wins over lower-level competition to start the season, but no more. Now, Tennessee’s put everyone on notice that they are not the 13th-best team in the SEC. Nowhere near it. They’re good, they’re going to make some real noise this season, and they’re going to be fun to watch.

Next up: Western Kentucky or No. 5 Villanova tomorrow at either 12:30 or 7:00.

Go Vols.

College Football TV Schedule and Rooting Guide for Vols fans (with Vols hoops): Week 13

Here’s the Week 13 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. As always, it includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what might be of interest to a Vols fan, along with helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game. We’ve also tossed in Vols hoops this week.

The full (football) schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols!

Tuesday-Thursday, November 21-23

Date Time TV Away Team Home Team Why How Root For
Tuesday 7:00 PM ESPN3 Bowling Green Eastern Michigan It's football. Pick one and relax.
Tuesday 7:00 PM ESPNU Kent State Akron
Tuesday 7:00 PM ESPN3 Miami, OH Ball State
Wednesday 12:00 PM ESPN2 Tennessee Purdue GO VOLS! Live GO VOLS!
Thursday 12:30/7:00 TBD Tennessee Villanova/WKU GO VOLS! Live GO VOLS!
Thursday 7:30 PM ESPN Ole Miss (16) Mississippi State Dan Mullen in action Live Mississippi State

 

As far as we know, Dan Mullen is still in play to be Tennessee’s next head coach, so Thursday provides a chance to kick his tires a bit. Plus, if you haven’t checked out Vols hoops yet, you should. They’re fun to watch, and they have at least one really good opportunity to build a nice resume Wednesday, and, depending on how Wednesday goes, perhaps another one Thursday.

Friday, November 24

On tap on Black Friday? More hoops, plus a bunch of Tennessee football coaching candidate watching. I don’t know how viable of a candidate Gary Patterson is, but you get a chance to watch him in action at noon, and then at 3:30, we get a look at both Charlie Strong and Scott Frost. The Nebraska game at 4:00 made the curated list because of the fragile hope that the Huskers have such a huge win that they decide not to fire their coach and therefore miss out on alum Scott Frost.

Time TV Away Team Home Team Why How Root For
TBD TBD Tennessee TBD GO VOLS! Live GO VOLS!
12:00 PM FS1 Baylor (12) TCU Gary Patterson Live TCU
3:30 PM ABC USF (15) UCF Charlie Strong/Scott Frost Live Discuss
4:00 PM FS1 Iowa Nebraska Scott Frost Peek in Huskers

 

Saturday, November 25

I LOVE rivalry week, and this is a good one, with a couple of games featuring ranked rivals going at each other. The Iron Bowl, in particular, should be fun to watch. Plus, there are a ton of opportunities to watch Vols coaching candidates in action. Oh, and the Vols send out their seniors against Vanderbilt at 4:00 on the SECN.

Time TV Away Team Home Team Why How Root For
12:00 PM ABC (7) Georgia Georgia Tech Former opponents Channel hop The flexbone
12:00 PM FOX (9) Ohio State (24) Michigan Big game/Greg Schiano Channel hop
12:00 PM ESPNU East Carolina (21) Memphis Mike Norvell Channel hop
12:00 PM SECN Louisville Kentucky Bobby Petrino Channel hop
12:00 PM CBSSN Tulane SMU Chad Morris Channel hop
12:30 PM RSN Duke Wake Forest David Cutcliffe Channel hop
3:30 PM CBS (1) Alabama (6) Auburn HUGE GAME Live/Peek in Auburn
3:30 PM BTN (10) Penn State Maryland James Franklin/D.J. Durkin DVR
3:30 PM ESPN2 Iowa State Kansas State Matt Campbell DVR
4:00 PM SECN Vanderbilt Tennessee GO VOLS! Live GO VOLS!
7:30 PM SECN Texas A&M (20) LSU Coaching search Peek in Texas A&M
8:00 PM FOX (14) Washington State (18) Washington Mike Leach Live

 

Noon slot

At noon, there’s a big game between ranked rivals Ohio State and Michigan that also features a Tennessee coaching candidate in Buckeyes’ defensive coordinator Greg Schiano. There are also a handful of other coaching candidates in action, plus a chance to see if Georgia might have some trouble with Georgia Tech’s flexbone offense.

Afternoon slot

In the afternoon slot, an absolutely huge Iron Bowl will test your devotion to the Vols. There are a couple of other coaching candidates to watch as well, but there’s too much competition to really pay much attention to them unless you want to DVR them.

Evening slot

The evening period gives you a chance to root for Texas A&M to not fire their coach and present Tennessee with additional competition on the coaching carousel. Mike Leach is also in action.

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 13

And here’s the complete football schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

DATE TIME TV AWAY TEAM HOME TEAM
Tuesday 7:00 PM ESPN3 Bowling Green Eastern Michigan
Tuesday 7:00 PM ESPNU Kent State Akron
Tuesday 7:00 PM ESPN3 Miami, OH Ball State
Wednesday 12:00 PM ESPN2 Tennessee Basketball Purdue
Thursday 12:30/7:00 TBD Tennessee Basketball Villanova/WKU
Thursday 7:30 PM ESPN Ole Miss (16) Mississippi State
Friday TBD TBD Tennessee Basketball TBD
Friday 11:30 AM ESPNU Western Michigan Toledo
Friday 12:00 PM ABC (3) Miami, FL Pittsburgh
Friday 12:00 PM FS1 Baylor (12) TCU
Friday 12:00 PM ESPN Navy Houston
Friday 12:00 PM CBSSN NIU Central Michigan
Friday 1:00 PM ESPN3 Ohio Buffalo
Friday 2:30 PM CBS Missouri Arkansas
Friday 3:30 PM CBSSN New Mexico San Diego State
Friday 3:30 PM ABC USF (15) UCF
Friday 4:00 PM FS1 Iowa Nebraska
Friday 4:00 PM ESPN3 Texas State Troy
Friday 7:00 PM beIN SPORTS WKU FIU
Friday 8:00 PM FOX Texas Tech Texas
Friday 8:00 PM ESPN Virginia Tech Virginia
Friday 10:30 PM FS1 California UCLA
Saturday 12:00 PM ABC (7) Georgia Georgia Tech
Saturday 12:00 PM FOX (9) Ohio State (24) Michigan
Saturday 12:00 PM ESPNU East Carolina (21) Memphis
Saturday 12:00 PM ESPN Florida State Florida
Saturday 12:00 PM ESPN2 Indiana Purdue
Saturday 12:00 PM FS1 Kansas (13) Oklahoma State
Saturday 12:00 PM SECN Louisville Kentucky
Saturday 12:00 PM CBSSN Tulane SMU
Saturday 12:00 PM ESPNews UConn Cincinnati
Saturday 12:20 PM ACCN Boston College Syracuse
Saturday 12:30 PM RSN Duke Wake Forest
Saturday 1:00 PM ESPN3 North Texas Rice
Saturday 1:00 PM CUSA.TV UTEP UAB
Saturday 2:00 PM ESPN3 Appalachian State Georgia State
Saturday 2:00 PM Stadium Florida Atlantic Charlotte
Saturday 2:30 PM Stadium Southern Miss Marshall
Saturday 3:00 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State ULM
Saturday 3:00 PM ESPN3 Old Dominion Middle Tennessee
Saturday 3:00 PM ATTSNRM UNLV Nevada
Saturday 3:30 PM CBS (1) Alabama (6) Auburn
Saturday 3:30 PM BTN (10) Penn State Maryland
Saturday 3:30 PM CBSSN (25) Boise State Fresno State
Saturday 3:30 PM ABC (5) Wisconsin Minnesota
Saturday 3:30 PM ESPN2 Iowa State Kansas State
Saturday 3:30 PM ESPNU North Carolina (19) NC State
Saturday 3:45 PM ESPN West Virginia (4) Oklahoma
Saturday 4:00 PM FOX (17) Michigan State Rutgers
Saturday 4:00 PM FS1 (23) Northwestern Illinois
Saturday 4:00 PM ESPN3 Idaho New Mexico State
Saturday 4:00 PM ESPNews Temple Tulsa
Saturday 4:00 PM SECN Vanderbilt Tennessee
Saturday 4:30 PM Pac-12N Arizona Arizona State
Saturday 5:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia Southern UL Lafayette
Saturday 5:00 PM ESPN3 Wyoming San Jose State
Saturday 7:00 PM ESPN2 Oregon State Oregon
Saturday 7:30 PM ESPN (2) Clemson South Carolina
Saturday 7:30 PM SECN Texas A&M (20) LSU
Saturday 7:30 PM ESPNU UTSA Louisiana Tech
Saturday 8:00 PM FOX (14) Washington State (18) Washington
Saturday 8:00 PM ABC (8) Notre Dame (22) Stanford
Saturday 9:00 PM CBSSN BYU Hawaii
Saturday 10:00 PM FS1 Colorado Utah
Saturday 10:15 PM ESPN2 Utah State Air Force

Tennessee vs Purdue Preview at the Battle 4 Atlantis

 

Opportunity knocks, and she is a lot taller than us.

Tennessee will open the Battle 4 Atlantis on Wednesday at 12:00 PM ET (ESPN2) against #18 Purdue. The Boilermakers have been busy: wins over SIU-Edwardsville, Chicago State, and Fairfield by a combined 132 points. More importantly, they won at Marquette (#55 KenPom) 86-71.

1. Seriously, these dudes are tall.

Purdue was a four-seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament, playing their way to the Sweet 16 before getting obliterated by Kansas. They lost power forward Caleb Swanigan to the first round of the NBA Draft, but all the other contributors are back. That starts with 7’2″ Isaac Haas, averaging 13.5 points and six rebounds in just 18.8 minutes per game so far this year. 6’1″ guard Carson Edwards is shouldering some of Swanigan’s scoring load, getting 18.5 per game so far. And Dakota Mathias makes Purdue an inside-out nightmare: you can double-down on Haas, but Mathias shot 45.3% from the arc last year and is 13-of-16 (81.3%!) so far this year.

Add in 6’8″ Vincent Edwards (averaging a 15-9) and senior guard P.J. Thompson, and you’ve got five guys averaging double figures. And no worries:  when Haas comes out, they replace him, impossibly, with someone even taller in 7’3″ freshman Matt Haarms of the Netherlands.

2. Purdue runs one of the most effective offenses in college basketball.

It’s a small sample size, but as of Monday night the Boilermakers were fifth nationally in field goal percentage, seventh in three point percentage, 11th in blocked shots, and fourth in points per game. But don’t count on it being a fluke:  last year Purdue was 28th in field goal percentage and ninth in three point percentage (40.3%). They are currently seventh in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive ratings. The Vols are currently 34th in those same defensive ratings. But the task, if you will, is tall.

In two games, the Vols have nine players averaging 15+ minutes. One of them is Kyle Alexander, who is of course the only player in orange who can even attempt to look this Purdue front line in the eye. Tennessee did play great basketball on the offensive end at an extreme size disadvantage at Chapel Hill last year, but were still largely undone by 22 offensive rebounds from the Tar Heels.

Tennessee is currently 38th in KenPom and looked as good as you can against the low-level competition they’ve faced. Purdue is a great opportunity, especially with #5 Villanova probably awaiting the winner, but a bad match-up for the Vols on paper. A victory could be a gold mine in RPI and tournament resume. But even if it’s defeat, we’ll learn a lot more about how Rick Barnes wants his rotation to look.

3. …but Tennessee has the makings of their own effective offense.

The Vols have their own inside-out game working in the early going, and would really like to do a younger, smaller version of the Boilermakers’ offensive identity. Tennessee’s most important player is also inside; Grant Williams is averaging 11 points and 9.5 rebounds in 23 minutes, and is 10-of-14 at the free throw line. Admiral Schofield leads the team in scoring so far and is 8-of-9 at the line. And so far, the Vols have been hot from three at 45.2%. Schofield is 4-of-7, Jordan Bone 3-of-4, Jordan Bowden 5-of-7, and Lamonte Turner 4-of-9. The early returns show a much better shooting team; it won’t be so easy against Purdue, but getting good shots through a more effective offense continues to be one of the most important steps this team can take.

Tennessee will need all of that and more to beat Purdue. But even if the Vols fall here to a Final Four contender, continuing to play this well on the offensive end can take the Vols where they want to go this season. It’s a golden opportunity where victory puts you several steps closer to the tournament, but should be educational regardless of outcome. The winner likely gets #5 Villanova, the loser likely gets Western Kentucky.

On fan expectations if it’s not Jon Gruden

I have no idea who Tennessee’s next coach is going to be, and no idea what percentage is reasonable to believe on Jon Gruden. Things seem to be further down the road with Gruden than they were five years ago, but that doesn’t mean that road is going somewhere. Was there a 3% chance in 2012, and now there’s a 15% chance? That’s five times more likely this time around…and still far more likely than not the answer is no.

So, what if the answer is no?

There seems to be a narrative developing that the Tennessee fan base is so infatuated with Gruden, we will accept no substitutes. In a conversation on the Sports Source yesterday, Jimmy Hyams said, “A very prominent booster told me recently that two coaches that you might think would be on the list said they’re not interested, because of all this uproar.”

You can choose your level of obsession in this search. As no one seems to know exactly what John Currie is thinking anyway, you can wait it out or check in at the end of each day. Or you can burn through an F5 button or two chasing down every last rumor. But no matter how passionately one chooses to follow the #Grumors, and no matter how crazy they may get (and it doesn’t get much crazier than Calhounsgate), a couple of things should ultimately make 2017’s uproar much more sensible.

One, the perception five years ago was that Tennessee didn’t make a full effort to land Gruden. I don’t know much reality this perception truly represents, but the idea that Gruden would have commanded more money than Tennessee was willing to pay at the time was prevalent. The November 2012 report from Stephen Hargis at the Chattanooga Times-Free Press specifically mentioned pay for Gruden’s potential staff as a point of contention.

Other journalists disputed that story, and we’ve seen something similar this year. John Brice and GoVols247’s Grant Ramey reported the Vols flew to Tampa last week to pitch to Gruden again. This story too has been disputed. But a report like this can go a long way in the perception of Tennessee’s search, even if John Currie is introducing someone else at a press conferene. Whatever it’s worth, the tone on Tennessee message boards this week has also shifted from five years ago. There is a much greater sense that if the Vols are making the pitch, this time they’re making it knowing the cost. That if Jon Gruden chooses to stay in the NFL or on Monday Night Football, it won’t be because of anything Tennessee didn’t do.

And hey, it’s no sin to say no. If Gruden doesn’t want to coach in college, okay. You can’t make the man do something he doesn’t want to do.

This is where the other significant difference from five years ago would come in:  Dave Hart introduced Butch Jones after reportedly missing out on Charlie Strong at the last minute. On the morning of December 5, Charlie Strong was the front-runner. On the evening of December 5, Strong stayed at Louisville. And on the evening of December 6, it became clear Butch Jones would get the offer from Tennessee.

Again, so much of this is perception. Charlie Strong was at Louisville, had been at Florida as defensive coordinator, and was a popular choice among Tennessee fans. Butch Jones was at Cincinnati, had been at Central Michigan, and was viewed as a hurried reactionary move when the Vols lost out on Strong.

Whenever people make a big deal about Dave Hart being asked about Jon Gruden at Butch’s first press conference, I always wonder if the same questions would have been raised if Hart was introducing Strong. Even with the perception that the Vols didn’t fully pursue Gruden, Strong would have been an A hire; he got one of the most coveted jobs in football a year later. Butch Jones felt like having to settle, and the worst way to settle is to not know for sure if you could’ve had the one you really wanted.

This time, I think we’ll feel like we took our shot at Gruden. And this time, Tennessee has a better chance to make a better hire that isn’t him.

It doesn’t have to be from that conference champion proven winners list (Jimbo Fisher, Gary Patterson, Chris Petersen, etc.), the guys you call just in case. If John Currie is introducing Dan Mullen next week? That’s a win for Tennessee. If Scott Frost can somehow be pulled from Nebraska? That’s a W. Or perhaps John Currie has something else up his sleeve. There are good hires out there, and if Tennessee made a serious pitch at Gruden’s level, it gives one confidence in this administration to do the same elsewhere.

There is, of course, a less proven group of names further down your hot board from which a good coach may emerge. But there are simply more questions with this group, which will mean more questions for John Currie and the administration if the search gets this far down the list. Especially if Chip Kelly is at Florida.

But the uproar is understandable for a program that wants to win. For a decade, Vol fans have been left with no other choice but patience. Alabama went 10 years between Stallings and Saban, but Mike DuBose won the SEC in 1999 and Mike Shula won 10 games in 2005. Notre Dame went 13 years between Holtz and Kelly, but Ty Willingham won 10 games in 2002 and Charlie Weis made back-to-back BCS bowls his first two years. Other proud programs had brief peaks in otherwise lengthy valleys. In 10 years, Tennessee has done no better than a pair of 9-4’s under Butch Jones that both felt disappointing because they were. Tennessee fans are tired of being asked to be patient, which is a big part of Gruden’s allure. Gruden feels like winning today! But I believe there are other good hires out there to make us believe we will be a winner tomorrow.

I believe the uproar will also ultimately subside, not because the Vols hire Gruden, but because fans can believe the Vols did their due diligence and will put themselves in position to make a good hire. Every fan base has its unhealthy edges; coaching search + message boards + Twitter + 10 years isn’t the formula for our best selves.

But I also believe all this uproar isn’t the best way you judge a fan base; it’s selling 96,000 tickets and having many of those thousands cheer in the rain for a winless SEC team at the end of a forgettable season. That’s Tennessee. That’s a fan base a good coach will discover is a blessing, not a curse.

And I’m hopeful that’s exactly what Tennessee will get.