Tennessee commit Anthony Grant flips to FSU on National Signing Day

Well, this isn’t the way you want to start the day, but 3-star (per 247Sports) athlete Anthony Grant, whose Twitter bio identifies him as a Tennessee commit and includes a pinned tweet from June 25 saying he is committed to the Vols, reportedly announced this morning that he has changed his mind and will go to FSU:

Grant actually committed to Butch Jones, and he has reportedly been wavering for some time, although the latest concern was that he would choose Virginia Tech over the Vols. Regardless, he’s going somewhere other than Rocky Top. Best of luck to him.

While this isn’t the way you want to start the day, it’s not a shock. The Vols are still in the mix for some great players today. There are three players scheduled to announce at 10:00 a.m.: 5-star cornerback Tyson Campbell, 3-star safety Trevon Flowers, and 3-star defensive end John Mincey.

National Signing Day: Announcement times of interest to Vols fans

It’s National Signing Day, and today we’ll find out how much the solid and frenzied short-term work by Jeremy Pruitt and his staff will actually bear fruit. Tennessee starts the day at No. 20, and there will be a lot of movement among all teams, but we’re hoping that’s the floor for the Vols today and that they might even crack the Top 15, a solid win for a new coach on a short cycle.
Here’s a list of recruits on Tennessee’s recruiting board as of this morning along with their announcement times.

RB Anthony Grant

3-star ATH
7:00 a.m.
Update: Tennessee commit, flipped to FSU this morning.

Tyson Campbell

5-star CB
10:00 a.m.
Probably Georgia.
Update: Yep, Georgia.

Trevon Flowers

3-star S
10:00 a.m.
Tennessee appears to be in good shape here, although Clemson and Kentucky are players.

John Mincey

3-star SDE
10:00 a.m.
 Appears to be between Tennessee and South Carolina. Probably South Carolina.

Tre’Shaun Harrison

4-star ATH
10:45 a.m.
Looking like FSU.

Otito Ogbonnia

3-star DT
11:00 a.m.
Appears to be between Tennessee, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Nebraska. It’s looking like UCLA leads this morning.

Quay Walker

4-star LB
11:00 a.m.
Tennessee should be in good shape, but mystery abounds, and Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn are players. Georgia, in particular, has made significant inroads lately and according to some experts, leads.

Olaijah Griffin

5-star CB
1:00 p.m.
 Appears to be headed to USC, but Tennessee and Alabama are still theoretically in play.

Glenn Beal

3-star TE
1:00 p.m.
Appears to be headed to Texas A&M, although Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss are possibly still factors.
Update: Texas A&M.

Jordan Young

3-star WR
1:00 p.m.
 Appears to be a two-horse race between Tennessee and Florida State, with FSU perhaps leading late.

Joseph Norwood

3-star WR
1:00 p.m.
Appears to be a guy the Vols want if they have room. He’ll likely jump if they call.

JJ Peterson

4-star OLB
1:00 p.m.
Tennessee should be in good shape here, but Alabama is a factor.

Jacob Copeland

4-star WR
2:00 p.m.
Probably Florida, but Tennessee is in the hunt, and if Alabama has room, watch out.

Taiyon Palmer

4-star CB
11:00 a.m. or 2:30 p.m.
Appears to be between Tennessee, NC State, and Nebraska, with NC State the favorite.

Jashaun Corbin

4-star RB
3:30 p.m.
Looking like Texas A&M.

Emmit Gooden

4-star JUCO DT
3:30 p.m.
Tennessee apparently leads, with West Virginia and Arkansas pursuing.

Jermayne Lole

3-star SDE
4:00 p.m.
Arizona State has led most of the way, but Tennessee is a real factor late.

Isaac Taylor-Stuart

4-star CB
5:10 p.m.
Likely USC, but they reportedly might not have room. If not, Tennessee could be in decent shape, although Alabama and Texas A&M are factors as well.
Update: It’s USC.

Cedric Tillman

3-star WR
5:30 p.m.
This should be Tennessee, with UNLV and Hawaii in the picture.

Tavion Thomas

3-star RB
TBD
Cincinnati?
Update: Yep, Cincinnati.

Eddie Smith

3-star CB
TBD
Probably Alabama, with Tennessee as a long shot.
Update: Alabama it is.

Tennessee Wins in Rupp Arena 61-59

If you are new to this team or this program in 2018, it’s hard to put into words what winning in Rupp Arena means for Tennessee. Take all this win means for this individual season – and it will be significant – and set it aside. We’ve got an extra day before going to Tuscaloosa, and we’ll take it. There will be plenty of words to come about seeding, brackets, RPI, etc.

Rupp Arena opened for the 1976-77 season. The Vols won twice in the first four years. In the 38 years since, the Vols had two wins: 1999 in an ugly affair like tonight, and 2006 because Chris Lofton willed it to be so.

Many, many Tennessee teams have gone into Rupp and left something beyond embarrassed. In 1993 the Vols lost to Kentucky at the SEC Tournament at Rupp by 61 points. The next four years they lost by 19, 19, 17, and 34. When the Cats came to Knoxville you could at least hope, even if only for a couple of media timeouts. When the Vols went to Lexington, hope died at the state line.

And when Tennessee Basketball came to life, first under Jerry Green and then Bruce Pearl, the results only changed those two times. Two wins in the last 19 years is bad without the 19 years of bad before it. The #6 Vols went to Rupp in 2000, en route to the Sweet 16, and lost by 13. Bruce Pearl’s 2007 team, also a Sweet 16 participant, lost by 19 in Rupp. The 2008 squad was ranked third when they faced an unraked UK team in Rupp; they lost by six. The next four years Tennessee lost by 19, 11, 12, 25, and 10. Cuonzo’s last team got it down to eight.

Rick Barnes’ first team lost in Rupp by 10. Last year the Vols lost by 25 in Lexington.

Tonight, we won.

Rick Barnes is now 4-2 against Kentucky at Tennessee.

Play this game ten times, each team wins five

If it felt like you couldn’t breathe watching this one, that’s because the entire game was played within one possession, except for one possession. Tennessee went up 50-46 on two Grant Williams free throws with 4:54 to play. That lasted ten seconds before PJ Washington hit two free throws. And that was the start of a 7-0 Kentucky run to put the Cats on the cusp of a two-possession lead, 53-50 with 3:18 to play.

Jordan Bowden kept pace with Tennessee’s next four points. Grant Williams hit two free throws when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed one. But when Gilgeous-Alexander made a jumper to put the Cats up two with 90 seconds left, Admiral Schofield missed a three. Kentucky had the ball and a two-point lead with 1:09 to play.

It wasn’t just the scoreboard, but the stat sheet as well that proved how close these two teams were tonight. Tennessee shot 42.3%, Kentucky 42.2%. Tennessee hit 23.8% from the arc, Kentucky 21.6%. The Vols were 14-of-16 (85.7%) at the line; Kentucky shot just 72% but got there more often, going 18-of-25.

Tennessee was +1 in offensive rebounding, +2 overall. Both teams blocked four shots. Kentucky had 15 turnovers, Tennessee 13. One foul separated these two teams.

But the most important difference for Tennessee was steals. Most of UT’s turnovers were self-inflicted. Most of Kentucky’s were Tennessee takeaways.

The Vols had nine steals, and two of them came in that final 1:09. Kyle Alexander came up with the first, giving them a chance to tie or take the lead. Tennessee struggled to run its offense all night; Grant Williams had just three shot attempts thanks to excellent work denying him the ball by Kentucky. Admiral Schofield’s 12 points came on 16 shots. Jordan Bowden had 13 points but was 1-of-5 from the arc.

So when in doubt on their most important possession of a game when every possession mattered, the answer was Lamonte Turner.

He was the answer at the end of regulation against Purdue, another 50/50 affair with an even better opponent. And he may very well represent Tennessee’s true ceiling in March. The Vols are a great basketball team. When he’s hot, they are an elite one.

His “why not?” three will probably leave Kentucky fans asking the opposite question, and that’s fine. A game like tonight could have gone either way. But they only go one way in the end, and tonight Tennessee wasn’t just close in Rupp, they cashed in.

Turner’s three led to the second steal in those final 61 seconds, as Jordan Bowden found the ball and found Schofield on a run-out to put the Vols up three with four seconds to play. They survived a missed Kentucky free throw in the final second, survived the building, and are helping Tennessee fans survive enormous disappointment on the football side. It’s funny how it works, but for the third time in a dozen years – after missing bowl eligibility for the first time in 17 years in 2005, watching Lane Kiffin leave in the middle of the night in January 2010, and everything that went sideways last fall – Tennessee is putting together a truly special basketball season from the ashes of autumn.

For that, for tonight, and for everything Rick Barnes has done for a program that can proudly stand on its own two feet, and quite tall tonight…for everything, we are grateful.

Enjoy this.

Tennessee Vols at Kentucky Wildcats: game time, TV, and online game-watching party

The Vols travel up the road to Lexington and Rupp Arena looking for a rare road victory and season sweep against the Kentucky Wildcats this evening. The game tips at 7:00 p.m. and will be televised on ESPN. You can catch it online via WatchESPN.

Just in case you’re not quite in the mood yet, this should help:

And while you’re waiting . . .


Our players are more talented than yours, nanananananana.

Tonight, we’re experimenting with including a curated Twitter stream of Tennessee media folks we follow in hopes that filtering out some of the non-game noise will make Twitter less of a distraction and more of a complement to the game. We’ll see how it goes.

See you in the comments below.

Go Vols!

Gameday Today: All aboard the Vols hoops bandwagon

Hoops

Warning: Mixed metaphor zone. If you’re still a wallflower, standing on the sideline, reluctant for whatever reason to jump on the Vols hoops bandwagon — it’s time to find your courage, get in the game, and enjoy the ride.

Tennessee men’s hoops is quietly becoming a great team, doing what great teams do like beating opponents by 33 points.

Their coach, who has gotten them to this point by always, always, always finding something they can do better, is having to work especially hard to find something to criticize (video).

The opponents are handing out the rat poison of effusive praise like it’s candy, and the pollsters are piling on, slotting Tennessee at #15.

And we’re talking realistic dreams of a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

So make yourself happy and get on the train before it leaves the station.

Tonight, #15 Tennessee travels to Rupp Arena to take on #24 Kentucky, and we’ll be re-introducing the GRT game thread for it. John Calipari is calling for all hands on deck, so not only do we have a road trip to a blue-blood rival at hand, that rival is wide awake and in attack mode. Will’s Tennessee-Kentucky game preview tells you what to watch for. This is basketball, so a road loss to a ranked rival won’t be devastating to the Vols, but tonight provides a significant opportunity to sweep Kentucky and continue to build momentum heading into the postseason.

Recruiting

Tomorrow is National Signing Day, and nobody knows anything about how the Vols are going to finish.

247Sports has an 18-click slideshow Crystal Ball update on the Vols’ remaining tagets. It’s kind of depressing, to be honest, as it only gives the edge to the Vols for 5-star Quay Walker and 3-star Cedric Tillman and puts them in a tie for 3-star Otito Obgonnia.

This similar post from SEC Country is a relatively more optimistic version of the same thing, guessing that Tennessee leads for Walker, 4-star Isaac Taylor-Stuart, and 4-star Emmit Gooden. The reason for the increased optimism is likely this post, also from SEC Country. Rivals, too, appears to think the Vols’ chances to land ITS are better than the Crystal Ball.

SB Nation has an NSD headquarters, complete with some announcement times for tomorrow.

We’ll have more on recruiting today and tomorrow, but for now, remember this: Nobody knows anything.

Lady Vols

The Lady Vols beat Vanderbilt two days ago, 74-64. Highlights:

Other fun stuff

Congrats to VFL Derek Barnett for his role in winning the Super Bowl for the Philadelphia Eagles and to Tom Brady for losing well:


And also to Butch Jones, Mike Debord, or whoever’s actually responsible for designing the play that resulted in quarterback Nick Foles catching a touchdown pass.

Tennessee at Kentucky Preview

You know the numbers by now: four wins in the 40-year history of Rupp Arena, none since 2006. Tonight an even bigger prize is on the table: Tennessee hasn’t swept Kentucky since 1999.

In the north, Calipari calls for aid:

When the head coach of a program like Kentucky basketball (or Tennessee football) posts something like this, things aren’t going as well as they’d like. The Cats are 17-6 (6-4), hanging on at 24th in the AP poll. A three-game win streak was snapped at Missouri on Saturday; Florida beat them in Rupp three weeks ago.

Three keys for tonight’s opportunity:

  • Who has the better game: Admiral Schofield or PJ Washington? In our first meeting, Washington had 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting, but played just 23 minutes with cramps. While Tennessee’s post players will have to do a better job defending Washington this time, Schofield plays the corresponding role on the other end of the floor. Rick Barnes loves to attack Kentucky with undersized bigs:  Armani Moore had terrific games against the Cats, Schofield had 15 points off the bench in Tennessee’s win over #4 Kentucky last season, and followed up with 20 points and nine rebounds in Knoxville earlier this year. Grant Williams will get the attention, but Tennessee needs Schofield to take advantage to get this thing done.
  • Kentucky’s three-point shooting. This season Kentucky is 16-1 when they shoot at least 30% from the arc, 1-5 when they don’t. If I was a Kentucky fan, I’d take comfort in this stat: 30% isn’t much to ask for, and when the Cats can splash just a few threes to go with their incredible talent, they’re really tough to beat. But the memories of John Calipari’s first team in Lexington – still the only one at UK to feature a pair of NBA All-Stars in John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins – would also make me a little uneasy. That team lost in Knoxville because it made only two three-pointers, then lost in the Elite Eight for basically the same reason. The good news for Tennessee: the Vols are the one in 16-1 this season, beating Kentucky despite the Cats hitting 7-of-19 (36.8%) from the arc.
  • Kevin Knox is Kentucky’s leading scorer at 15.1 points per game. But he has struggled in Kentucky’s four SEC losses. The Vols held him to six points on 1-of-9 shooting. At South Carolina he had 21 points on 16 shots, but went 1-of-8 from the arc. Florida held him to nine, and Missouri held him to five last time out. Tennessee’s defense has been more vulnerable to elite guard play; they did really well against the 6’9″ Knox the first time around, but how will it go in Rupp?

You know you’re having an incredible year when losing in Rupp could be considered a disappointment. The history of this series in Lexington makes me feel like this is a nothing-to-lose date for Tennessee. But the narrative of Tennessee’s season suggests the opposite. The Vols have stared down better foes, but if Calipari gets his wish, not a more hostile environment. Can this Tennessee team pull off one of the program’s rarest feats?

7:00 PM ET on the big boy network for once, Dickie V and all, baby.

Let’s win.

 

How High Could Tennessee Realistically Be Seeded?

If Tennessee’s third straight 20+ point win didn’t give you the vapors, this definitely will:

Deep breaths.

This is a ceiling week for Tennessee: at Kentucky, at Alabama. These two and a visit from Florida on February 21 are the remaining signature wins on Tennessee’s schedule. The Vols also have a second date with Ole Miss, plus four games with teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble: two with Georgia, a visit from South Carolina and a trip to Starkville.

So here’s some good news if the topic of this post is a little too much for you: if the Vols just go 4-4 in these last eight games, they’ll finish 21-9 (11-7) with a projected RPI of 20. The Sagrain ratings at RPI Forecast project a 5-3 finish, Ken Pomeroy’s like 6-2. And so does ESPN’s BPI, which thinks so highly of the Vols as a one seed.

Before last weekend, I felt like thinking of the Vols as a three seed was greedy. After missing both the NCAAs and NIT the last three years, it’s good for us to be cautious. But BPI has no such burden.

Villanova, Purdue, Virginia and…

The only three teams to receive first place votes in both polls, this trio is clearly college basketball’s top tier. They also go 1-2-3 in KenPom. Villanova is +33.22 in adjusted efficiency margin; only 2015 Kentucky and the team that beat them from Wisconsin have finished above 33 in KenPom in the last six years. Virginia is right behind them at 32.86, with Purdue at 29.85. They have four losses between them; Virginia and Purdue are a combined 23-0 in conference play.

Five weeks is still a long time til Selection Sunday, but these three are putting significant distance between themselves and the field. But that fourth one seed?

Can Tennessee really get in the mix? Should we even take Tennessee seriously as a potential two seed?

Historical Context: The Last One Seed & The Four Twos

I’d expect Tennessee to be a three in the Bracket Matrix this week. What would it take for the Vols to go higher than that?

Here’s how the last one seed and the four two seeds have looked on Selection Sunday since 2012, using the selection committee’s seed list (thanks, Wikipedia) with RPI ratings from Real Time RPI and pre-tournament KenPom data:

Seed Team Record RPI KenPom
2017 L1 Gonzaga 32-1 8 1
2017 2A Kentucky 29-5 4 4
2017 2B Arizona 30-4 2 21
2017 2C Duke 27-8 6 14
2017 2D Louisville 24-8 7 6
2016 L1 Oregon 28-6 2 13
2016 2A Michigan State 29-5 12 2
2016 2B Oklahoma 25-7 6 8
2016 2C Villanova 29-5 4 5
2016 2D Xavier 27-5 7 18
2015 L1 Wisconsin 31-3 4 2
2015 2A Virginia 29-3 7 5
2015 2B Arizona 31-3 5 3
2015 2C Gonzaga 32-2 8 7
2015 2D Kansas 26-8 3 12
2014 L1 Virginia 28-6 9 4
2014 2A Villanova 28-4 5 7
2014 2B Michigan 25-8 10 12
2014 2C Kansas 24-9 3 5
2014 2D Wisconsin 26-7 6 10
2013 L1 Gonzaga 31-2 6 4
2013 2A Miami 27-6 4 13
2013 2B Duke 27-5 1 5
2013 2C Georgetown 25-6 11 15
2013 2D Ohio State 26-7 10 7
2012 L1 Michigan State 27-7 3 3
2012 2A Kansas 27-6 6 4
2012 2B Duke 27-6 5 13
2012 2C Ohio State 27-7 7 2
2012 2D Missouri 30-4 10 5

A couple observations:

  • The last one seed had six or seven losses three times in the last six years. Two other times it was Gonzaga. Only once, with Wisconsin in 2015, have we seen four truly dominant power conference options on the first line.
  • Of the 24 two seeds in the last six years, nine had between 7-9 losses.
  • All 30 teams represented here had an RPI of 12 or better. 28 of them had a KenPom rating of 15 or better. RPI isn’t the best way to judge a basketball team, but the committee still values it, especially at the top. Strength of schedule matters, and the Vols will be in good shape there.

What does Tennessee need for an RPI of 12 or better? RPI Forecast puts the Vols at 11 if they finish 23-7, 15 if they’re 22-8. There would still be an opportunity for those numbers to go up or down at the SEC Tournament (and remember, unless the Vols are going to win the SEC Tournament for the first time since 1979, they’ll pick up an additional loss in St. Louis).

History suggests if the Vols want that last one seed, they’re going to need a 7-1 finish, or 6-2 and an SEC Tournament title. Both RPI and BPI project all the other teams in the hunt for the last one seed to finish with fewer losses than Tennessee, and considering the pedigree of that list, I’m not sure the Vols would get the benefit of the doubt. A one seed seems unlikely.

But a two seed? That’s doable.

Even a 5-3 finish would get the Vols in that conversation. Tennessee’s resume is extremely strong, as is the SEC’s reputation this year. Going 6-2 in these last eight would make Tennessee awfully hard to deny on the two line.

The most meaningful opportunity left in the regular season is the next one. We’ll know a lot more about Tennessee’s ceiling this time next week. But from a distance, it’s quite high. And while a one seed might be a little out of reach, a two is not…and this team would probably be a three if the tournament started today.

What a ridiculous thought that was at the start of the year. And what an incredible job Rick Barnes and this team have done.

Lots of good work still on the table. Go Vols.

Tennessee 94 Ole Miss 61 – What Great Teams Do

The Vols have been checking off all the signs of a great team this season:

  • Signature wins (Purdue, Kentucky, get back to me on Texas A&M)
  • Competitive with elite teams (Villanova, North Carolina, Auburn?)
  • No bad losses

The graduate-level version of no bad losses is, “Blow out bad teams.” Add another check.

After letting Vanderbilt rally from down 20 to within two before surviving, the Vols have discarded drama: beat Iowa State by 23, beat LSU by 23, and today beat Ole Miss by 33.

Look at all this: 53.2% from the floor, 13-of-29 (44.8%) from the arc, 78.9% from the line, 27 assists on 33 made baskets, and six turnovers. Ole Miss shot 11-of-25 (44%) from three and lost by 33!

Next week was going to be a ceiling week before today’s result: the Vols are at Kentucky, then at Alabama. Tennessee hasn’t won at Rupp since 2006, hasn’t swept Kentucky since 1999, and has four wins in the history of that building. Alabama just dominated Florida in Gainesville and beat Oklahoma in Tuscaloosa last weekend.

But what might be on the other side of next week now seems even higher. The Vols are a four seed in the Bracket Matrix; I’ve thought for weeks this team had 4-6 potential, which is amazing compared to preseason expectations. But saying Tennessee is a great team and Tennessee can beat anybody is a long way from hyperbole now. I think we can start dreaming a little bigger. The Vols have earned it.

Big, big week ahead. Enjoy it.

Gameday Today: Quay Walker update, hoops in historical perspective, and dumb smart people

Recruiting

Jeremy Pruitt and two of his staff were in-home with 5-star linebacker Quay Walker last night, and, according to Walker, it went all-caps GREAT.


Walker is technically committed to Alabama, but he’s recently taken official visits to Tennessee and Auburn and will take one at Georgia this weekend. The 247Sports Crystal Ball is showing the Vols and the Bulldogs as the favorites to land Walker, who’s the No. 2 outside linebacker and the No. 31 overall prospect in this year’s class. To say that he’s a priority for the Vols would be an understatement.

Meanwhile, the Vols and defensive tackle D’Andre Litaker have decided to go their separate ways.

Hoops

At this point in the season, the Vols basketball team has put together a resume that rivals the program’s best. So why isn’t there more interest? Will makes a great point in the linked post that the TV schedule, which was made based on preseason projections, is partially to blame.

What does Tennessee have to do to catch up with Auburn in the race for the SEC regular-season crown? Check out this video from the SEC Network on that topic and have a look at those BPI game-by-game projections for the Vols:

The Vols are favored in every game except the one against Kentucky and the officials at Rupp, and even that one is a coin flip. Woo.

Who’s the coach of the year in the SEC? So far, Jimmy Dykes says, it’s the guy whose team is currently projected as a four-seed in the tournament despite being picked next-to-last in his conference:

And if you weren’t convinced after yesterday that Rick Barnes is driven primarily by something other than money, add this to the exhibit list: He’s focused on the season, not on leveraging his recent success into a contract extension.

The No. 12 Lady Vols took care of business last night, beating No. 14 Texas A&M 82-67 with a strong fourth quarter. Highlights:

Other fun stuff

The SEC is distributing $596.9 million among the 14 conference schools. In case you don’t have a calculator, I’ll just go ahead and tell you that that’s a lot of money.

Hey, look. Dumb smart people!

And congrats to Alvin Kamara, who’s been named the NFL Rookie of the Year.