Gameday on Rocky Top

One of the benefits of being a Top 15 team: pointing out weaknesses in victory! How have your conversations about the Pitt game started the last couple of days? Something like, “Great win…we’ve got some work to do!”? Me too! Josh Heupel’s Monday press conference began that way as well.

Given the Vols are now merely 48.5-point favorites against Akron this week…I’m not sure how much we’re going to learn between now and the Gators. So: to the past!

Where do the questions start with Tennessee? Specific to the Pitt game, I was most curious about the running backs: not even their lack of production as much as their lack of opportunity.

Jabari Small had 10 carries for 17 yards, Jaylen Wright nine for 47. That’s 19 carries for running backs in a game that included overtime. Seems like not a lot!

But if you go back through Josh Heupel’s now 15-game tenure at Tennessee, you find that this kind of performance seems opponent-specific.

Running Back Carries as a Percentage of Total Plays, 2021-22

Year	Game	RB Carries	Total Plays	Pct.
2021	Georgia	17	84	20.2%
2022	at Pitt	19	77	24.7%
2021	at Alabama	14	55	25.5%
2021	at Kentucky	12	47	25.5%
2021	Pitt	19	66	28.8%
2021	at Florida	22	68	32.4%
2021	Ole Miss	26	79	32.9%
2021	South Carolina	28	72	38.9%
2021	vs Purdue	43	105	41.0%
2021	Tennessee Tech	34	79	43.0%
2021	South Alabama	34	72	47.2%
2022	Ball State	43	86	50.0%
2021	Vanderbilt	30	60	50.0%
2021	at Missouri	42	78	53.8%
2021	Bowling Green	50	88	56.8%

No surprise, you’ve got Georgia and Alabama near the top of the list, both in the talent department and in the playing-from-behind department. At Kentucky last year, the Vols only ran 47 total plays, making it easy for the percentages to get skewed.

But Pitt shows up both years as well.

So this is a question we’ll be curious to see the answer to in two weeks: did the Vols proactively choose to throw it more against what we perceived to be a good Pitt front, or will this group struggle to run the football against the non-Ball States of the world?

Last season the Vols were 34th nationally in yards per carry at 4.90. The 2.60 yards per carry Tennessee got at Pitt trails only Alabama and Georgia in Heupel’s offense at UT. But a big factor in those numbers is Hendon Hooker: both his productivity as a runner, and the high sack rate the Vols suffered last season.

At Pitt, Hooker was sacked on 6.67% of his passing attempts. That’s not great, but it’s an improvement over the 10.88% he went down on passes vs FBS foes last season. Those three sacks are included in the 15 rushing attempts Hooker was credited with Saturday, some/many of them escaping pressure leading to just 27 yards.

Hooker ran for 49 yards on nine carries when he came into the Pitt game last year. After that, it was fairly easy to see a pattern develop in 2021: when Hooker averaged at least three yards per carry, the Vols went 6-1 (Ole Miss being the loss). But in the other losses Hooker started:

• at Florida: 13 carries, 23 yards, 1.77 ypc
• at Alabama: 13 carries, 27 yards, 2.08 ypc
• Georgia: 17 carries, 7 yards, 0.41 ypc
• vs Purdue: 19 carries, 52 yards, 2.74 ypc

Get to the quarterback, and you beat Tennessee last year.

But this time, through some combination of proactive play-calling and getting sacked slightly less, the Vols still struggled to produce rushing yardage, but found less of their offensive fate tied to it.

Again, it’s gonna take two weeks to get an answer to this, at least. No guarantees we’re going to find more success against Alabama or Georgia; the Vols opened Saturday with only one RB carry in the first nine snaps and two in the first 13. Will Tennessee continue to attack through the air to help the running game find opportunities? Or was this something more specific to Pitt and/or really good run defenses?

And, of course, do the Gators qualify? Special teams miscues ruined Kentucky’s rushing stats in The Swamp, but Utah ran for 230 yards at 5.90 per carry.

I’ll be curious to see how often the Vols go to their backs against the Gators; I think that will tell us a lot about how this team views its own offensive efficiency going forward.

The Vols are 2-0, Josh Heupel has his second ranked win, and we’re off and running in the Top 15.

Here’s our Expected Win Total Machine for this week. Will the community total climb to 8.5 or higher? That’s up to you!

The Vols are #15 in the AP Poll this week, a welcome sight after spending most of the last 15 years away. For context, Tennessee finished in the Top 15 16 times in 23 years from 1985-2007, last appearing at #12 in the final poll in ’07.

Tennessee Top 15 Finishes, 1985-2007

• 1st: 1998
• 3rd: 1995
• 4th: 1985, 2001
• 5th: 1989
• 7th: 1997
• 8th: 1990
• 9th: 1996, 1999
• 12th: 1992, 1993, 2007
• 13th: 2004
• 14th: 1987, 1991
• 15th: 2003

The Vols were #18 in the 2008 preseason poll, fell out immediately, and didn’t return at all until one week in 2012. Our 2015 appearance lasted two weeks before sliding back in at #22 in the final poll.

But for the Top 15, you’ve gotta go to 2016, where Tennessee appeared in the preseason poll and five other weeks. And in the covid polls of 2020, the Vols made two Top 15 appearances, both of which came before all teams had begun play.

So that’s eight weeks in 15 years…plus right now.

Let’s see if we can stick around a minute, yeah?

Including whew, but also, woo!

We did, “Oh no, are we bad again?”. Tennessee’s first three drives went three-and-out, three-and-out, and turnover on downs. Pitt led 10-0 and had 1st-and-10 at the Tennessee 21. That possession ended with Trevon Flowers’ end zone interception, the first of a bananas number of turnaways from Tennessee’s defense.

On the day, the Vol defense kept Pittsburgh out of the end zone from:

• 1st & 10 at the 15 (FG)
• 1st & 10 at the 21 (INT)
• 4th & 3 at the 27 (sack)
• 3rd & 3 at the 28 (FG miss)
• 1st & 10 at the 19 (FG miss)
• 1st & Goal at the 5 (FG)
• 1st & Goal at the 10 (OT end of game)

Flowers may have made the game’s two biggest plays, an impressive bounce-back sandwiching them between Pitt’s impressive hurdle TD and the muffed punt. But Flowers’ interception gave the Vols life early, and his overtime sack took it from the Panthers late. In between, Tennessee scored touchdowns on three straight offensive possessions to take a 21-17 lead, then got three more as the first half expired.

So then, there was premature elation: “We’re good!” We wrote this week on how the numbers next to the names reminded us of Tennessee’s early season games against Florida in 2012 and Oklahoma in 2015. Each of those games had false positives, moments when we thought we’d made it. And in the third quarter, with Kedon Slovis out of the game, we were close.

The Vols took over at the Pitt 48 with 7:12 to play in the third quarter. But a false start penalty led to a punt, which was blocked. When Pitt missed their ensuing field goal, the Vols fumbled it back to them. And after Chase McGrath nailed a clutch 51-yard field goal, the defense got another stop, but Flowers fumbled the punt.

All told, the Vols had six straight drives with a chance to take a two-possession lead, then the fumbled punt. And when those chances all failed to stretch the lead beyond a touchdown, there were all kinds of other emotions running through us, all of them familiar too. Pitt’s backup quarterback – a phrase that still inspires our darkest ghosts from 21 years ago – fired a fourth down touchdown pass to get the game to overtime.

But then, other emotions emerged. Older and less familiar, for sure.

But we’re very happy to see them. To feel them.

Hendon Hooker – 27-of-42 for 325 and two scores – was patient. He found his guy Cedric Tillman, who wrapped his day with catch #9 and yards totaling 162. I wanted to write, “His most yards since…”, but then we forget this dude had 10 for 200 against Georgia. Tennessee’s offense made the play it needed to make, the one it missed against Pitt last year, or Ole Miss, or Purdue, or even Kentucky.

And then Tennessee’s defense – which made the stops it needed to make late in all those games last year – made one more today. Pitt converted their first fourth down in overtime. But Flowers’ sack on third down made sure the next would be a much different animal.

And after all that, Tennessee wins.

Here’s a list of the highest-ranked teams the Vols have beaten in the last 15 years:

• #11 South Carolina 2013
• #12 Northwestern 2015
• #12 Kentucky 2018
• #17 Pittsburgh today

Oh yes, we’ll take it. It is Josh Heupel’s second ranked win, and…

AP Poll ROAD Wins Over Top-20 Teams Last Six @Vol_Football Coaches @coachjoshheupel – 2 (now in yr 2)
J. Pruitt – 0 (3 years)
B. Jones – 0* (5 years)
L. Kiffin – 0 (1 year)
P. Fulmer – 13 (17 years)
J. Majors – 6 (16 years)

* – UGA ranked 25 in AP & 20 in Coaches in ‘16

— Bill Martin (@Bill_Martin) September 11, 2022

https://twitter.com/Bill_Martin/status/1568758893089636352

And yep, we’ll take Akron next, thank you very much. The win total machine will be here on Monday morning; we can worry about Florida or Kentucky or whomever you’d like then.

For tonight, we don’t just take this one. We celebrate it. Tennessee ran through most of its emotions from the last 15 years, and most of those most aren’t much fun. But winning? Winning is fun.

Let’s do more of that.

Go Vols.

It’s #17 Pittsburgh vs #24 Tennessee, and I find myself elated to see that number next to our name.

In 2006 and 2007, the Vols played a total of ten ranked vs ranked games. In the fifteen years since, Saturday will make just our ninth such occasion. The other eight include:

• One game in year three for Derek Dooley
• One game in year three for Butch Jones
• Four straight games in year four for Butch Jones
• One game in year five for Butch Jones
• One game in year three for Jeremy Pruitt

And, as is in the nature of being ranked #24: win this one, and more will be on the way very soon.

“Soon” is the right word for this moment: soon, as in we’re here in year two. Soon, as in we’re here after being more vulnerable as a program than ever just 20+ months ago.

And soon, as in it feels like an even bigger opportunity is waiting on the other side of this one.

Of all those other ranked contests, the closest comparisons are the first two. In September 2012, the Vols returned to the Top 25 for the first time since the preseason poll in 2008. #23 Tennessee hosted #18 Florida. We lasted one week in the poll then, falling out for another three years until the preseason poll in 2015. In week two of that season, #23 Tennessee hosted #19 Oklahoma.

In both of those games, there were genuine, “Are we back?” moments. Midway through the third quarter against Florida, A.J. Johnson went beast mode and scored to give the Vols a 20-14 lead, then the Vols stopped a fake punt. We were close…then Florida scored 24 points in the game’s final 18 minutes.

I still think about halftime of the Oklahoma game. Maybe you do too. The Vols led 17-3 and were set to receive the second half kickoff. During that 20-minute break, the assumption was we were there. We were back.

And then, of course, we weren’t.

I don’t think “back” is on the table tomorrow, even though the rankings are similar. Some of it is Pitt’s name recognition, and some of it is the Gators in two weeks. But in the years that have followed those losses to Florida and Oklahoma, we’ve spent a lot of time talking about the value of moving forward.

And Tennessee is doing that much faster than we anticipated.

The numbers beside the names are similar, but this time the Vols are a touchdown favorite. On the road. Whatever your beliefs about the strengths and weaknesses of the Dooley and Butch teams, Josh Heupel’s groups have excelled snap-for-snap. Tennessee’s highest ranking in the 18-season history of SP+ is right now.

Last week in our expected win total machine, the Vols checked in at 8.03 projected wins. This week, that number is down to 7.93. But it’s not a reflection of how we feel about Pitt: Tennessee fans give the Vols a 63.5% chance to win on Saturday. That’s up slightly from 61.9% in preseason. The biggest change came not from Florida (59.5% to 52%), but Georgia, where fans moved Tennessee’s chances from 22.6% to 11.2%.

But neither of those are problems we have to solve today.

This weekend is an opportunity. And for all its connections to the past, going all the way back to Coach Majors, it is at its heart an opportunity to move forward to the future. Very much like the South Carolina game last year, this opportunity sets up the next one. Tennessee has done the work, ahead of schedule, to arrive back in the national conversation. To stay there, where other Tennessee teams have fallen off immediately, requires victory.

And here too, more than in the past, victory is becoming the expectation.

Go Vols.

A year ago, we left the Pitt game wondering if the Vols would continue to unleash their tight ends in Josh Heupel’s offense. It turned out to be a false positive: Princeton Fant and Jacob Warren combined for nine catches against the Panthers, but ended the season with just 34, giving them more than a quarter of their season total in one game.

Those numbers were more in line from what we’ve seen in the past, both from Tennessee and from Heupel at UCF:

• Tennessee Pass Distribution 2010-20: 63% WR, 23% RB, 14% TE
• UCF Pass Distribution 2018-20: 76% WR, 18% RB, 6% TE

The flip last season ended up being from running backs to tight ends:

• Tennessee Pass Distribution 2021: 77% WR, 15% TE, 8% RB

Tennessee’s backs caught just 20 total passes last season, a jarring number considering Eric Gray caught 30 alone in nine games the year before. It’s one week in a 49-point win, but against Ball State 25 of UT’s 27 receptions went to wide receivers. The seven players to get multiple catches were all receivers.

So one big question: are we going to see the tight ends get involved against the Pitt defense again?

If so, it’ll probably come in a different fashion. Last year against the Panthers, 15 of Tennessee’s 22 receptions went to tight ends and running backs. The Vols used Princeton Fant early to get Joe Milton going. Then the Vols attacked deep downfield, as you’ll recall, to no avail. Then Hendon Hooker used both Fant and Jacob Warren in late drives to give the Vols a chance to win.

These are two curiosities for me with this high-octane offense: will the Vols utilize the tight ends and running backs more, and if not, will they stick with a larger rotation at wide receiver? We saw Walker Merrill, Ramel Keyton, and Squirrel White all get in with the ones against Ball State. How deep will that pool be against Pitt?

Last week at Pitt, West Virginia receiver Bryce Ford-Wheaton had nine catches for 97 yards and two TDs, the brightest spot in a passing game that struggled to be explosive on a consistent basis (5.4 yards per attempt). He and WR Sam James were the only players to catch more than two passes. Last year Pitt’s defense was vulnerable to efficient quarterback play, with Western Michigan, Miami, and Virginia all having significant success against them.

All that to say: I assume Hendon Hooker will continue to be an efficient passer. Will we see guys running wide open downfield against Pitt again? If so, great! If not, how will Heupel and these guys draw it up – and will that once again include tight ends and backs that don’t usually get involved?

Leading the conversation at church yesterday morning: “Uh oh, Florida’s good again!” And while we don’t have to solve that problem this week, it does go in the math of this week’s expected win total machine.

Will the Gators be the week’s biggest mover among our opinions of Tennessee’s opponents? I felt like LSU was the least predictable game on the schedule going in, and I’m still not exactly sure what to expect from those guys…but I feel better about Tennessee’s chances. I’m curious to see how Georgia’s performance impacts our percentages there as well. Meanwhile, I’d imagine we’re feeling a little better about Pitt, South Carolina, maybe Kentucky, maybe others…

The number won’t improve much by itself by beating Ball State. Where I’ll really be curious is to come back next week, if the Vols beat Pitt, and see if we’re up past 8.5 wins.

But first, how are we feeling about Pitt, and the rest? Enter your probabilities below, and we’ll tally it up later this week:

There’s a psychological component to looking up and seeing those orange V-O-L-S letters, I’ll tell you that much for sure. They last appeared in The Year of Our Lord 1998, we all file away in the back of our minds and the front of our hearts.

But nevermind going back that far just yet. On our list of things we haven’t seen much in just the last 15 years: a Tennessee win by this margin against an FBS foe. Lane Kiffin’s team beat Western Kentucky in their first full-fledged FBS game 63-7 in 2009. Before that, you’ve gotta go back to, you guessed it, 2007 to find the Vols beating Louisiana-Lafayette 59-7 to top tonight’s 49-point win. It was one of the more stress-free evenings in Neyland Stadium in about that many years too, and didn’t take long to get that way.

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1565483570491179008

We’ve also apparently reached a point with this offense where you can think, “Hmm, this isn’t Hendon Hooker’s very best game,” and he’s 18-of-25 for 222 yards (8.9 per) with a pair of touchdowns and no picks. But one thing the Vols did for sure: spread that ball around. Ten different players caught a pass. Seven different players caught multiple passes; last year that never happened with more than five.

Something that came up in the opener last year too: Tennessee’s quarterback having so very much time to throw, you worry a little about them getting too comfortable before playing Pitt. Hendon Hooker was sacked once for a loss of one, and otherwise unthreatened. A good start for an offensive line that can really help this offense in that department.

Meanwhile, the Vols held Ball State to 5-of-14 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth down. Here too, with plenty of room for improvement, the Vols took a good first step.

And Pitt just gave up 5.8 yards per carry to West Virginia, but we got the most desirable outcome: a Panther victory could setup a Top 25 showdown next Saturday.

But before all that, 92,236 showed up to watch the Vols on a Thursday night as a 35-point favorite. That’s the most for a home opener since 2018, and a sharp turn of events from early last season, when the Vols didn’t crack 90,000 for any home games other than Ole Miss and Georgia. In attendance, the closest comparison to last night since 2010 is the BYU game in 2019 (92,475). That’s a healthy, real-life sign of what Josh Heupel and these guys have accomplished since last year, when 82,203 came to the Pitt game.

All told, we got minimal stress, maximal health, a fun season-opening win that didn’t reveal much too much about this team. We’ll spend the next week hopeful the Panthers will discover we’re still full of surprises.

1-0.

Go Vols.

This is my first football season back in Knox County since 2005. I dropped my son off at pre-K this morning in a building full of orange. Life is pretty great these days.

Life should be pretty great for Tennessee tonight, even three years removed from Georgia State making it decidedly not so. If it helps, the Vols were around -26 that night, and are currently -35 with Ball State. There’s a temptation to send out eyes toward the Backyard Brawl, a simultaneous kickoff and one that should tell us much more about what to expect next Saturday than our game will. The weekend contains more of the same: Florida-Utah and LSU-Florida State should offer incredibly meaningful first impressions of teams we’ll see in the next 30 days.

We’ve still had relatively few kick-back-and-relax season openers in our recent past. Last year’s first look at Josh Heupel’s system led to a simplified evening of taking what the defense gave, 64 rushing attempts to 24 passes in a 38-6 ho-hummer against Bowling Green. Before that, ho-hum was about the best one could hope for. Not since the Vols jumped all over Utah State on a Sunday night in 2014 has a season opener gone exactly the way we wanted.

So yeah, free and easy is what we want tonight. And I think we’ve got as good a chance to get what we all want from this team as just about any in the last 15 years.

But the beauty of this sport remains in what we don’t know, the faith waiting to become sight.

Every season tells a story, and they are each unique. And every time – every time, through 15 years since Atlanta or 17 since I lived here or almost 41 since I was born – every time, I look forward to it. And so do you.

We don’t get to hold the pen by ourselves. It never goes exactly the way we think.

We’ve seen Jerry Colquitt get hurt on the opening drive. We’ve seen the Clawfense go down in the same setting 14 years later. We’ve seen Tennessee walk the balance beam with Appalachian State and Georgia Tech in consecutive years, and somehow not fall off. And yes, we’ve seen Georgia State come to Knoxville and win, straight up.

We’ve also seen the Vols roll up to Louisville on the first ever Thursday night game on ESPN and win. We’ve seen a win over Syracuse that had more meaning than we could possibly imagine at the time. We’ve wondered if we were lost, then felt like we were found in the blink of an eye against Cal. And we’ve seen Cordarrelle Patterson burn all our fears of the Georgia Dome to the ground.

So yeah, I don’t know if the most noteworthy thing to happen to the week one conversation will happen in Neyland tonight. I don’t know if, on Monday, we’ll be talking more about West Virginia or Utah than Tennessee.

But all of these stories weave together to make this still-interconnected-for-now beautiful mess of college football. There is nothing else like it. And as such, there is nothing else like today.

Enjoy it. Enjoy it.

Go Vols.

It’s game week, and this Vol squad enters the season with a chance to produce the program’s best year since our last division title in 2007. In the 15 years since, that honor currently belongs to the 2015 team. They didn’t have the emotional highs of Bristol, Florida, and a hail mary from the following season. But they also didn’t have the lows that came afterward. That 2015 group beat Georgia and stomped #12 Northwestern, and was highly competitive with some of the best teams in the country.

Since 2001, the 2015 squad is the only Tennessee team to avoid a three-possession (17+ point) loss. They also avoided a two-possession loss. But they went 2-4 in one-possession games, making them the only Vol squad to lose four one-possession games since Bill Battle’s final season in 1976.

We’ve used these two metrics to help gauge where a season might be headed. From 2017-2020, Tennessee lost 18 3+ possession games, 4.5 per year. In 2021, the Vols lost three 3+ possession games; they were the same ones they were 3+ possession underdogs in. But against Florida, Alabama, and Georgia, the Vols were also more feisty than usual, giving hope that we won’t spend too much longer talking about three possessions to the negative.

There’s clearly room for improvement here:

Tennessee 3+ Possession Losses Since 2001

• 0: 2015
• 1: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2016
• 2: 2007, 2009, 2014

But this season is also an opportunity to measure progress not just from the floor, but to the ceiling. To do that, the Vols will likely need to excel in one-possession games. Tennessee went 1-3 in such contests last year (on cue: “Referees!”). And that’s been a problem for the program as well.

In the last 15 years, only one Tennessee team has a winning record in multiple one-possession games. That’s the 2019 Vol squad, who lost to Georgia State and BYU but beat Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana. Jeremy Pruitt’s 3-2 record in such games helped his overall one-possession record finish at 5-3 at UT. Butch Jones went 10-14; Derek Dooley went 3-7.

(Phillip Fulmer, by the way, went 48-23-1. What’s the balance there of talent + confidence + coaching? That’s a fun conversation for a different off-season.)

How has this part looked in these last 15 years?

Tennessee in One-Possession Games Since 2007

Year	One Possession Games	Record
2021	4	1-3
2020	1	1-0
2019	5	3-2
2018	2	1-1
2017	5	2-3
2016	4	2-2
2015	6	2-4
2014	5	2-3
2013	4	2-2
2012	4	1-3
2011	3	1-2
2010	3	1-2
2009	4	1-3
2008	4	1-3

Best way to win them remains not to play them. But at Tennessee, we’ve been able to bank on around four of these a year when the Vols are competitive. Will the 2022 squad just thrash everyone outside of Alabama and Georgia and rise above all this? Maybe, but keep this in mind too:

Tennessee in One-Possession Games 1989-2001

Year	One Possession Games	Record
2001	5	4-1
2000	6	4-2
1999	3	1-2
1998	5	5-0
1997	4	4-0
1996	4	2-2
1995	3	3-0
1994	4	1-3
1993	2	0-1-1
1992	6	3-3
1991	3	2-1
1990	5	1-2-2
1989	6	6-0

Those Decade of Dominance Vol squads played 4.3 one-possession games per year. Again, however you want to argue for talent or Majors/Fulmer instilling the “clutch” DNA, they won them more than they lost them. Tennessee was under .500 in these games just four times in these 13 years.

So from the floor, can the Vols keep everyone within reach? Can we get into the fourth quarter with Alabama and Georgia and think about score, onside kick, score? Do we have a real chance to win every Saturday?

And to reach the ceiling, what will this team do in close games? You want to blow everyone out, fantastic. But if not, can this Tennessee team earn a winning record in one-possession games, just the second UT team since 2007 to pull that off?

The difference between 7-5 and 9-3 is usually what happens in close games. Where will this Vol squad end up?

This week we fired up our Expected Win Total Machine for the first time this fall, looking to establish a baseline for fan expectations going into the year. The initial results from week zero: our community projects the Vols to win 8.03 regular season games.

It’s an almost identical number to the 8.10 we got when we ran the win total machine after spring practice. A lot about this team feels known: system, coordinators, quarterback, eight(ish) starters back on both sides of the ball, etc. As such, we are apparently less prone to a fall camp boost, at least a week before kickoff. No quarterback competition for us to pile our hopes on, no significant injuries to our opponents, etc.

The win total machine uses the word “expected”, which makes this the sentence we’re trying on for size: “8-4 would meet expectations.”

That part feels right to me – I’ve got the Vols at 8.24 wins myself – and an 8-4 regular season would put UT on the right side of their 7.5 number in Vegas. The updated SP+ ratings project the Vols to win, you guessed it, 8.0 regular season games.

In seven days we’ll be immersed in the glorious week-to-week nature of this sport. So for one last time, a word on how far we’ve come to this point.

An 8-4 regular season would match the best year at Tennessee since 2007. That’s 15 years and six head coaches. And in that span, it’s only been done twice. That was years three and four under Butch Jones, and both times 8-4 left us feeling like there could have, should have been more.

Maybe we would feel that way about it this year, maybe not. All 8-4s are not created equal. It’s week-to-week.

But the notion that equaling the best regular season around here in 15 years in year two for Josh Heupel – given the history and the headaches he inherited – the notion that an 8-4 season would qualify as “meets expectations”? As we said after spring practice, that’s a testament to the good work these guys already did in year one.

Here’s the game-by-game breakdown from our win total machine:

Expected Win Percentage by Game

Ball State	98.70%
at Pitt	61.90%
Akron	97.50%
Florida	59.50%
at LSU	48.40%
Alabama	19.80%
UT Martin	98.90%
Kentucky	63.50%
at Georgia	22.60%
Missouri	76.30%
at South Carolina	66.50%
at Vanderbilt	89.70%

It’s what you’d think: assumed wins vs Ball State, Akron, UT Martin, and Vanderbilt. Missouri is viewed as the next easiest contest, with Tennessee getting better than 75% odds. The Vols getting around 20% chances against Alabama and Georgia in preseason is a good start; we’ve been running the win total machine since 2017, and have had plenty of, “Is 5% too much?” conversations about those games. We’re still not at a projection of .5 wins against those guys, where you can round up to an upset…but we’re getting closer.

Among the fanbase, here’s the meat of it: using these percentages, we expect the Vols to get 2.998 wins against Pitt, Florida, LSU, Kentucky, and South Carolina. So the most logical way we get to 8-4 is losses to Bama and Georgia, then 3-2 in those five games.

We’ll keep tracking these numbers every week, but that’s the initial expectation.

What can we hope for?

We throw 9-3 out there at lot for all the benchmarks it would clear, before you really get into fun fantasy scenarios about 10 wins and/or Atlanta. A 9-3 regular season has not been done in 15 years. A 9-3 regular season would almost certainly send the Vols to something better than the “Outback” Bowl for the first time in 18 years. A 9-3 regular season assures you beat at least one of Florida, LSU, Alabama, and Georgia.

It’s not the expectation, nor does it deserve to be yet. And like many of our hopes, it’s hard. Is 9-3 more likely than 7-5? For our community, the answer is yes, barely. The Vols played four one-possession games last year and went 1-3 in them. There can be a thin line between 7-5 and 9-3, but our feelings about those two outcomes would be much, much wider.

But we can indeed hope for it. And it’s a real hope, not a pretend or exaggerated one. Meaningful history is possible, right now.

If the expectation is to do as well as we’ve done in 15 years? And we can hope – really hope – for even more than that?

We’ve got a chance to have a really good time this year.

See you next week. Go Vols.