Gameday on Rocky Top

With it still being so early in the season, projecting games consists of attempting to identify what’s of value so far this season and what’s of value from last season, combining the two, and then comparing the result to your gut, which in the third game of any new season is on equal footing with data.

So let’s get to it. First, the predictions, and below them, the details:

Predictions

Tennessee rushing yards: 200

UTEP rushing yards: 125

Tennessee passing yards: 200

UTEP passing yards: 90

Tennessee points: 45

UTEP points: 10

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 159.5 rushing yards per game so far in this short season. UTEP is giving up 260.5 per game, which makes them the worst rushing defense the Vols have faced so far. UTEP’s run defense was similarly bad last season, so that supports the result from the small sample size of the 2018 season.

Tennessee got 129 rushing yards against West Virginia and 190 against ETSU. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against UTEP is 200.

UTEP rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 121.5 rushing yards per game so far in 2018, while the UTEP run game is averaging 183.5 yards per game. Last year, those numbers were 251.3 and 91.6, significantly worse for both teams.

West Virginia is averaging 203.5 rushing yards per game so far this season, and they put up 118 against the Vols. ETSU got 125 in Neyland. Based on all of that, I’m guessing UTEP will get maybe 125 yards rushing yards against Tennessee’s still-learning defense.

Tennessee passing

So far in 2018, Tennessee is averaging 198.0 passing yards per game, and UTEP is allowing 165.0. The Vols put up 224 against the Bucs and 172 against the Mountaineers, slightly more than their season average so far. My guess, then, is that Tennessee will end up with somewhere around 200 passing yards this weekend.

UTEP passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 249.0 passing yards per game so far this year, although they have West Virginia and Will Grier — who are averaging 382.5 passing yards per game through two games — on their resume. The Vols allowed only 69 to ETSU, which is now averaging 171.

UTEP is averaging only 125.0 passing yards per game so far this season, slightly less than the 134.9 they averaged in 2017.

Based on all of that, my expectation for the Vols’ passing defense in this game is that they’ll likely give up somewhere around 90 passing yards to UTEP.

Tennessee scoring

For what it’s worth, a 14-point game and a 59-point game gives Tennessee an average of 36.5 points per game this season. Their average last season was 19.8.

UTEP is currently allowing 41.0 points per game this season, a bit higher than their average of 36.8 last year.

The Vols scored 59 points against ETSU and 14 against West Virginia, which is allowing 15.5 points per game so far this year.

I think it’s probably safe to say that UTEP is closer to ETSU than West Virginia, so I’m going with an estimate of around 45 points against UTEP.

UTEP scoring

Tennessee is allowing 21.5 points per game so far in 2018. Last year, they allowed 29.1. Again, the variance is great when you consider ETSU and West Virginia were the two opponents.

UTEP’s offense is averaging 17.0 points per game this year after averaging 11.8 all of last year.

ETSU scored 28 points against Mars Hill but got only 3 against the Vols. The Mountaineers got 40 against Tennessee and then 52 against Youngstown State.

With that, I’m setting the expectation for UTEP’s points against the Vols at 10.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

So, I’m going with Vols 45, UTEP 10, a spread of -35.

The Vegas spread is between 30.5 and 31, with an over/under of 47-47.5, which converts to something like Tennessee 39, UTEP 8.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ gives the Vols a 98.8% chance of winning and spits out an expected score of 52.5-13.4, a spread of 39.1.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 98.4% chance of winning.

 

 

 

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

Honestly, there’s not much worth watching early this week. Boston College and Wake Forest play on Thursday on ESPN and Memphis hosts Georgia State on Friday on ESPN, but this would be a good week to do some other stuff you’ve been meaning to get done.

Gameday

 

The Vols have the noon slot this weekend, and if you’re interested in seeing a couple of future opponents in action, your DVR can handle the Kentucky-Murray State and Vanderbilt-Notre Dame games.

At 3:30, you have a decision to make: Watch either a Top 12 matchup between No. 12 LSU and No. 7 Auburn or do a little scouting of Tennessee’s next opponent, as Florida takes on Colorado State. Or you could just channel hop between them.

That evening, there’s an interesting Top 25 matchup between No. 4 Ohio State and No. 15 TCU and a couple of future opponents in action, so while away the night with the remote in hand.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

History suggested Tyson Helton would change the Vol passing attack, and we’ve seen it already in the first two games. Butch Jones’ offense targeted running backs more than any team in the SEC, essentially making the tailback the number three receiver. Not only has that changed dramatically in Helton’s offense – two catches for Tim Jordan, one for Jeremy Banks – a number one receiver has emerged in ways it never did in the last five years.

Marquez Callaway has 11 catches for 141 yards in the first two games. At this pace he’ll eclipse last season’s total – when he was the number one receiver in theory – by the end of the month (24 catches for 406 yards). And through the first two games, no other Vol has more than four receptions (Josh Palmer and Jordan Murphy).

We’ll see what happens with Jauan Jennings, the presumed top target going into last season and even this one by some. But so far, Callaway is the clear preference of Jarrett Guarantano. Sports Source Analytics has Callaway with seven catches for 115 yards (29th nationally) on first down, plus three for 15 and a pair of first downs on third down. The early returns show Callaway targeted early and often.

Callaway has 36.7% of Tennessee’s total receptions and 44% among wide receivers. We never saw percentages like those under Butch Jones:

Year	Receiver #1	Catches	Receiver #2	Catches
2017	Brandon Johnson	37	Marquez Callaway	24
2016	Josh Malone	50	Jauan Jennings	40
2015	Von Pearson	38	Josh Malone	31
2014	Pig Howard	54	Von Pearson	38
2013	Pig Howard	44	Marquez North	38

(Von Pearson played only 11 games in 2014)

You have to go back to the last two years under Derek Dooley to find true number one targets. Da’Rick Rogers easily stood out in 2011: 67 catches for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns. The following year we remember Cordarrelle Patterson fondly, but many of his highlights were in the return game and on carries. Justin Hunter was easily the top target in the passing game with 73 catches for 1,083 yards to 46 for 778 for Patterson.

I’m not sure if this offense is built for Callaway to accumulate those kind of numbers. But he is clearly the number one option in an offense that’s going to receivers far more often than we’re used to. It’ll be interesting to see how his numbers change as defenses adjust to stop him, and if Guarantano can establish the same kind of rhythm with someone else. But through two games, Callaway is on track to be the kind of top target we haven’t seen in a long time.

 

Offense

Defense

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

The Vols did what they had to do this weekend against an outmanned ETSU Buccaneers team, and you have to give them credit for taking care of business. To be sure, there are still several obvious issues and many unanswered questions, but much of the new data this week was positive and increased hope for the future to a degree.

Meanwhile, former Vols opponent West Virginia blew out Youngstown State, which is also a positive. It’s not much more so than what they were expected to do, though, so while it’s a net positive, it’s not much of one.

As far as future opponents go, UTEP confirmed its tune-up status, and Florida’s loss to Kentucky made it look vulnerable to decent competition. The Gamecocks proved that they’re not yet an elite SEC team, yet we still don’t know how much of a gap there is between them and the rest of the SEC East. The Kentucky Wildcats must be taken seriously, and everybody else pretty much did what you expected of them.

On balance, it wouldn’t be accurate to call it a rosy picture for the Vols moving forward into the 2018 season, but it is indeed better than it seemed to be after Week 1.

And with that, my new expected win total after Week 2 is 5.45. Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated table of my expectations for the season:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• UTEP, 12:00 PM ET
• Florida, TBD
• #3 Georgia, TBD
• #7 Auburn, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Charlotte, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 1st in Big 12

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, 3:30 PM ET
• Kansas St, TBD
• Texas Tech, TBD
• Kansas, TBD
• Iowa State, TBD
• Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
• Texas, TBD
• #15 TCU, TBD
• #24 Oklahoma St, TBD
• #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 1-1 (0-0), 3rd in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• VMI, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Furman, 7:30 PM ET
• Chattanooga, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Gardner-Webb, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
• Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
• W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-2 (0-0), 1st in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Tennessee, 12:00 PM ET
• New Mexico St, 7:30 PM ET
• UTSA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN+
• North Texas, 7:30 PM ET
• LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Rice, 3:30 PM ET
• Mid Tennessee, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 1-1 (0-1), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Colorado St, 4:00 PM ET
• Tennessee, TBD
• #16 Miss St, TBD
• #12 LSU, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• #3 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Missouri, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 2-0 (1-0), 1st in SEC – East

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Mid Tennessee, 7:15 PM ET
• Missouri, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• #12 LSU, TBD
• Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Kentucky, TBD
• #7 Auburn, TBD
• UMass, TBD
• Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• #12 LSU, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Arkansas, TBD
• Southern Miss, TBD
• #16 Miss St, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Texas A&M, TBD
• #3 Georgia, TBD
• Liberty, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD

Big game coming up for Auburn this week as they take on #12 LSU. We’ll know a lot more about them after that.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – West

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Ole Miss, 7:00 PM ET
• Texas A&M, TBD
• Louisiana, TBD
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• #12 LSU, TBD
• #16 Miss St, TBD
• The Citadel, TBD
• #7 Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-1 (0-1), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, 7:30 PM ET
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Texas A&M, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Chattanooga, TBD
• #2 Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 1-1 (0-0), 2nd in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Old Dominion, 6:00 PM ET
• UMass, 3:30 PM ET
• UAB, TBD
• W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Mid Tennessee, 3:00 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
• Tennessee, TBD
• Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
• FIU, 2:00 PM ET
• FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-0 (1-0), 1st in SEC – East

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Murray State, 12:00 PM ET
• #16 Miss St, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Texas A&M, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• #3 Georgia, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Mid Tennessee, TBD
• Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Purdue, 7:30 PM ET BTN
• #3 Georgia, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD
• Memphis, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat Mid Tennessee, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• #8 Notre Dame, 2:30 PM ET NBC
• S Carolina, TBD
• Tennessee St, TBD
• #3 Georgia, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD

Editor’s note:  With my esteemed colleagues taking care of the heavy postgame lifting as I’m handling my national college football obligations on Saturday, I wanted to do something a little different. Each Sunday from now through the end of the year, we’ll take a last look at the game before, pointing out some positives as we move through the various phases of the Jeremy Pruitt rebuild.

We’ll call it Sunday Best. Hope you guys enjoy…

***

A lot of times throughout life, we’re not put in ideal situations. But you try to get through them, put your trust in the right place and endure. The fervent hope is that you’ll get stronger because of the trials and, some day, you’ll be rewarded for the work you did in the face of them.

If you’re a believer, this should sound familiar.

If you’re a Tennessee fan, you should try to look at the 2018 season in the same frame of mind.

Those playing and coaching and cheering on the Vols through what looks like yet another rebuilding campaign don’t want to be here. Don’t you think all those kids in orange and white wish they were dominant and winning games week-in and week-out? Don’t you know somebody used to championships like Pruitt has a hard time accepting that this year’s roster is nothing like the ones he coached at Alabama, Georgia and Florida State? And, of course, we all want to recapture the glory days.

Those ain’t coming in ’18.

But, you know what? That’s OK. We all need to hope that we’re building something that will last, finding playmakers, improving from week to week and that somewhere, along the way, we’ll be stronger for it. For the Vols, hopefully that will materialize not only in the growth of the players and the growing number of dependable guys on the roster, but also in the win column.

We talked about finding out where we were starting from last week after the 40-14 loss to West Virginia, even if that starting point wasn’t where we wanted. Will talked about gaining another data point yesterday after the 59-3 shellacking of ETSU.

I want to talk about the steady improvement we want to see and what we saw. Yes, we could harp all day on the struggles of the offensive line and how a pass-rush [or lack of one] against SEC opponents will get you crushed. Both of those things are true, but if we choose to talk about those, we forget the positives, and this year should be about enjoying wins when they come and accentuating the positives when they do, too.

There won’t be as many of both as we’d like, but we need to open our eyes and actually acknowledge them when they come.

I know the level of opponent downgraded significantly from West Virginia to ETSU, but I tried to view Saturday through the lens of “just us.” Just look at Tennessee and look for improvement, look for growth, look for development. I saw plenty. If the Vols progressively improve each week throughout the year as much as they did from Week 1 to Week 2, we’ll be happy with the end-of-the-season final product, even if we’re not happy with the final record.

The defense played faster, more aggressive and corralled several game-changing plays such as Darrin Kirkland’s pick-six and Bryce Thompson’s athletic defensive presence. Offensively, the O-line was a disaster, yes, but if you weren’t encouraged by several individual performances, you’re too hard to please.

We saw exactly what we needed to see from a game against the FCS Buccaneers. There was no way we could cure all ills yesterday, and we didn’t, but we saw that it perhaps won’t be as bad as we thought. Let’s take a look at some of Sunday’s Best:

• Thompson followed fellow freshman Alontae Taylor’s Week 1 performance by having his own show-up-and-show-out spot against ETSU. The freshman cornerback finished with four tackles, including two for a loss, an interception and a pass breakup. He was all over the field and displayed speed and athleticism that UT lacks on the back end. The only bad thing was he started in Taylor’s place; not Baylen Buchanan’s. Once Thompson and Taylor can be trusted to be on the field at the same time, the Vols will realize their most athletic defensive backfield.
• Junior college defensive lineman Emmit Gooden led the team with eight tackles and a sack. The late addition to Pruitt’s class has two years to play in Knoxville and is already better than any other defensive lineman. He’s an encouraging building block for the remainder of this season and for the future.
• If you aren’t excited about the wide receiving corps and the emerging weapons, you’re too hard to please. Marquez Callaway is off to a red-hot start, and he looks like one of the league’s top receivers. Toss in the emergence of Jordan Murphy and Josh Palmer, and the Vols have some weapons on the perimeter. Murphy’s camp is paying off with some big plays in the season, and Palmer looks more confident and a step faster than he did at any point last season. Most importantly, he’s catching the football.
• Tim Jordan is a good, solid back, and we haven’t even seen Ty Chandler truly unleashed yet. But Jeremy Banks is a load to bring down, and he’s exactly the kind of running back the Vols have been missing since Montario Hardesty. He is a violent runner who hits the hole with authority and finishes runs. It’s not a stretch to say UT’s most assertive running back is its youngest, and Pruitt already praises his leadership ability. He could be a special piece to this puzzle. Banks already may be my favorite player on this team.
• Theo Jackson and Shawn Shamburger weren’t always in the right places Saturday, but they too [like Thompson and Taylor] upgrade the athleticism in the secondary, so this was a step toward them proving their value to the coaches. The simple fact is the Vols need better athletes in the secondary than Buchanan and Micah Abernathy. It’s up to those guys to step up.
• Finally, there are reasons to remain encouraged about Jarrett Guarantano and to feel good about Keller Chryst, too. With the O-line issues, both likely will be relied on throughout the year. Neither is dynamic and both have limitations, but they don’t look like the kind of signal-callers who’ll get you beat. We’ll see in two weeks against Florida.

Next week, Tennessee gets another patsy in UTEP. Boy, the Miners are awful, so we won’t know a whole lot about the development of the team then, either. But what we can see is blossoming confidence, important reps and opportunities to improve.

Somebody said to me yesterday in the midst of that ugly start: “Man, this offensive line and pass rush won’t cut it. If this was an SEC team, we’d be getting killed.”

To which I replied, “Good thing it isn’t. One of those doesn’t come for another couple of weeks. We’ve got more time to marinate.”

By the time the hated [and also flawed] Florida Gators come to town, who knows what kind of team we’ll be?

If things go the way they have so far, we’ll be better than we were this week.