Gameday on Rocky Top

Editor’s note:  With my esteemed colleagues taking care of the heavy postgame lifting as I’m handling my national college football obligations on Saturday, I wanted to do something a little different. Each Sunday from now through the end of the year, we’ll take a last look at the game before, pointing out some positives as we move through the various phases of the Jeremy Pruitt rebuild.

We’ll call it Sunday Best. Hope you guys enjoy…

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There weren’t a lot of things to be excited about after Saturday’s sleepwalking victory over UTEP where it looked like the Tennessee Vols failed to wake up following a night out on the Strip.

Winning 24-0 against arguably the worst FBS team in the nation is nothing to be thrilled about. But with Florida coming to Neyland Stadium next Saturday night, style points don’t matter anymore. The only takeaway from Saturday is there is still so much to be worked on.

Jeremy Pruitt acknowledged as much in his man-of-few-words mode following the game when he did his postgame interview with the SEC Network. He said there’s far too much for Tennessee to work on internally to worry about Florida. He believes if the Vols take care of themselves, they can take care of a lot of issues.

We’ll see on Saturday.

But the past two weekends were all about fact-finding missions. Who can help this team win the important games? Can this team win important games?

The answer to those questions may very well be “nobody this year” and “nope, not this year,” but those aren’t acceptable answers to Pruitt and this staff. Say what you will about this team, but it’s obvious that Pruitt knows football, and that the Vols are going to play real hard-nosed football once they get the players in the right places and the trenches fixed. This year’s roster simply doesn’t have the horses, but the brand of ball the Vols want to play — whether they can play it in 2018 or not — is encouraging.

One of the building blocks for this rebuild was on full display against the Miners in sophomore running back Ty Chandler.

This was a player coveted by Alabama, Georgia and others a couple of years ago when Butch Jones plucked him out of Nashville. Unlike a lot of highly ranked players on this roster, he doesn’t look like a “miss.” If anything, he’s the most dynamic player on the entire roster, and we got a glimpse of what he can do Saturday.

I don’t care that it was against UTEP; that matters none. What Chandler brings to the offense is a dimension the Vols haven’t had since Lamarcus Coker, who just happens to be the last player to break off a run like Chandler’s 81-yard touchdown yesterday.

But take that run away for a moment. On his other runs, he had 77 yards on 11 carries, an average of (even I can do this one…) 7 yards per carry.

We’ve spent the past couple of games oohing and ahhing about how good Tim Jordan looks and that he can be a primary back in this offense, and we all fell in love with Jeremy Banks and his hard-nosed running. He looked good at times again against UTEP, though it looked to me like the officials blew the call on his ruled fumble at the goal line. Regardless, he’s got to do a better job taking care of the ball.

Madre London looks like a quality stopgap this year too, even though this will be his only year in orange.

But no matter how those guys looked at times throughout the season’s first couple of games, they aren’t Chandler. He’s deceptively shifty, and he is bigger than you think. Most importantly, he possesses the kind of breakaway speed Tennessee needs to produce big plays in the running game. Hopefully, as the season progresses, this offensive line will improve, and if it does, Chandler’s upside gets higher and higher.

He’s the kind of player who can win you a game against a Florida or South Carolina if he breaks free.

The only other players on UT’s offense who have that kind of different-level ability are receivers Marquez Callaway and Jordan Murphy.

After getting concussed in the second quarter against West Virginia, the Vols were cautious with Chandler the past couple of weeks. They unleashed him against UTEP, and he is an X-factor to be reckoned with against the Gators. If he’s not a major part of the game plan, something’s wrong.

He will be.

“Ty is a guy that he’s a pretty instinctive runner,” Pruitt said in the postgame interview, according to GoVols247’s Patrick Brown. “He’s got good vision, but he’s got good speed, so he got out there and done a good job finishing that run. It’s a good thing he did, because I’m not sure that we wouldn’t have gotten another penalty before we got in the end zone, so I’m glad he got it to the end zone.”

As we’ve discussed before, this season is about finding those pieces of the puzzle for building blocks, not only this year but next season, too. Against ETSU, we watched a defense that forced turnovers and turned them into points. That defense pitched a shutout against UTEP, but the turnovers were nowhere to be found.

Murphy had a huge game against the Buccaneers but barely made a noise on Saturday.

Callaway has been a consistent weapon, and Jarrett Guarantano is the no-doubt starting quarterback for this team in ’18 and in the future.

The running back room looks good for the future, and hopefully, after Saturday, we see who the leader of that group is going to be.

To be fair to Chandler, though, legends aren’t forged against the UTEP Miners. They’re bad — really bad — and all the mistakes on offense, the line issues and the ability to finish drives kept anybody from being truly happy with Saturday’s outcome.

Next weekend is the season’s first opportunity to make a name for himself. A year ago, with John Kelly in the backfield, Chandler had to play a support role. He’ll have to do the same at times this year with so many players who should get carries for UT. But the Vols need to ride the player who can turn a game in their favor in a hurry. The Gators don’t have a lot of players like him on their offense, either.

Look for Chandler to get a load of touches next weekend if this offensive coaching staff is confident. Of course, a lot of his success will be determined by the play of his offensive line, but Chandler has a window to become one of the most beloved players on this football team despite a difficult season.

Hopefully, he takes advantage.

A sleepy 24-0 Tennessee win over the UTEP Miners capped off a sleepy week for Vols fans this afternoon in Neyland Stadium. The UT offense sputtered early again this week, managing a paltry 17 yards on its first possession against a Miners team that was among the worst in the FCS last season.

Tennessee’s next possession began better but ended badly, as a 60-yard drive that culminated in a touchdown was undone by a chop block, sending Tennessee back out of the red zone and into settle-for-a-field-goal range.

Then, their third possession went for 64 yards but ended with a goal-line fumble. The call was somewhat controversial, as there were questions whether running back Jeremy Banks was down and/or whether he crossed the goal line before he lost the ball, but upon review, the on-field call was upheld.

Tennessee led only 3-0 after the first quarter. They scored a touchdown on their next possession to go up 10-0, but then punted out the remainder of the first half.

Despite the gloomy feel of the first half, though, the non-turnover and non-penalty stats were mostly sunny:

Stat comparison at the half: pic.twitter.com/IdQyiPEh6U

— Orange & White Report (@OandWReport) September 15, 2018

As Will pointed out during the game, the team was more sloppy than bad:

UT offense yards per play last year: Indiana State 5.9, UMass 4.5, Southern Miss 3.6. Today so far: 9.4. Sloppiness and bad offense aren’t the same thing.

— Will Shelton (@wshelton2) September 15, 2018

Running back Ty Chandler, who didn’t play last week against ETSU, had the highlight of the day on the first play of the second half:

That made the score 17-0, Vols, but the offense again stalled out on its next two possessions. A touchdown pass from Jarrett Guarantano to Jauan Jennings a few minutes into the fourth quarter capped the scoring for the game.

Defense

As a shutout would suggest, the Tennessee defense did a pretty good job all game, holding the Miners to a total of 134 yards, 95 on the ground and 39 through the air. UTEP managed only seven first downs and were 2-14 on third down conversions.

In comparison, the Vols’ offense, as disappointing as 24 points may have been, had 512 total yards, 345 rushing and 167 passing. They had 24 first downs and were 4-12 on third down and 1-1 on fourth.

Players

Guarantano had a solid day, as he was 12-16 for 168 yards and a touchdown and looked mostly in control the entire game. He threw no interceptions for the third week in a row.

The running backs were led by Chandler’s 158. Madre London added 74, Tim Jordan 49, and Jeremy Banks 45. Guarantano had 20.

Six different players caught balls for the Vols. Josh Palmer had 64 yards on two catches with a long of 53, and Brandon Johnson had four catches for 51 yards. It was great to see Jennings get more involved this week with three catches for 22 yards and a touchdown, and Dominick Wood-Anderson was targeted multiple times and caught two balls for 21 yards. Marquez Callaway seemed to be much more involved than his stat line is willing to admit: It says he had only one catch for 8 yards. Perhaps it’s all of his punt returns that made him seem more involved.

Only 24-0?

It’s hard to be disappointed in a defense that allows no points, no matter the team. The offense scoring only 24 points, though, is a cause for concern, but in my view there are three main reasons the Vols didn’t score more points, and they’re not quite as concerning as they might seem, as they are easily-correctable and/or uncharacteristic of the team so far this season.

Penalties

The Vols committed eight penalties for 65 yards, the majority of which were on the offense. The first — a chop block — negated a touchdown. Half of the drives that resulted in punts were stalled out by penalties. The offense moved when not behind the chains due to stupid penalties.

Turnovers

As mentioned earlier, Tennessee’s third offensive possession was rolling right along until freshman running back Jeremy Banks lost the football as he was stretching for the goal line. It may or may not have been the right call, but in any event, it ended an almost certain opportunity for another 7 points.

The score could have been worse due to turnovers, as punt returner Marquez Callaway also muffed a punt and gave the ball to the Miners’ offense at the 33-yard line. Fortunately, their own penalties and the Vols’ defense pushed them back and forced a punt.

Splitting time among the quarterbacks

As I said before, Guarantano was 12-16 (75%) for 168 yards. Despite him doing well and the team not clicking or pulling away from the Miners, the coaching staff decided to give backup quarterback Keller Chryst playing time at key junctures of the game.

That didn’t work so well.

With the Vols only up 10-0 and getting the ball back with 1:40 to play in the first half, Chryst’s first opportunity netted 6 yards in four plays and a punt.

Chandler limited the Vols’ first possession after the break to a single-play drive resulting in a touchdown, and Guarantano put together an eight-play, 38-yard drive after that, although that one ended up in a punt as well.

Chryst got the next possession, with 5:43 left in the third quarter and the Vols leading 17-0, and the team promptly went three plays for 1 yard before punting.

Guarantano got the next one and went 71 yards in 11 plays, throwing the touchdown pass to Jennings to finish it off.

Chryst’s next possession was his best. With 8:23 left in the game, he led the team on a six-play, 37-yard drive. But the only pass went for a loss of 1 yard, and the drive still ended with a punt.

The rest was garbage time with nothing but run plays and a kneel down.

I suppose it’s a good idea to get the backup quarterback ready to play, just in case. Somehow, though, it seems like a better idea when the team is already firing on all cylinders with the first-string guy, and although Guarantano was doing his part, the team wasn’t exactly rolling even with him at the helm. Continuity seems like a better goal than experience for the backups at this point.

Maybe we’ll be glad sometime in the future that Chryst has had some live fire, but it’s become quite clear that Guarantano is the team’s No. 1 quarterback, and although the team moved the ball well this afternoon, I don’t know that it really made Vols fans feel any better in advance of next week’s big showdown with the Gators.

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 1-1 Tennessee Vols hosting the UTEP Miners at Neyland Stadium today at noon.

Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

• Kickoff: 12:00
• TV: SEC Network
• Official video streaming: ESPN
• Official audio streaming: Vol Network
• Live stats

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

See also, this week’s full college football TV schedule.

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

No, we haven’t kicked the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast to the curb. It just got swallowed up by an over-busy schedule this week. Rest assured, it will return this week, and to be sure you won’t miss it, subscribe via iTunes or Google:

You can still hear Will on his weekly appearance with Josh Ward and Will West’s Sports 180 on WNML:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

• The Unpredictable (Non-UGA) SEC East
• Locks & Keys Week 3: A Miner Test Before Florida
• Tennessee-UTEP statsy preview prediction: Vols 45, UTEP 10
• Marquez Callaway and Number One Receivers
• Tennessee Vols statistical rankings after ETSU
• GRT Guessing Game Results Week 2: Randy Holtzclaw takes a commanding lead
• Dmorton wins Week 2 of the 2018 Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em Contest
• Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Week 2

New, experimental game thread

It seems that most people discuss live events on Twitter these days. The problem with that, in my opinion anyway, is that Twitter is much too noisy. It can sometimes be like having a bunch of uninvited people in your basement while you’re trying to watch the game with friends in peace. The thing I like about an open game thread here is that it’s a discussion among friends, like-minded folks who want to enjoy the game together because they also enjoy each others’ company. The problem is that Twitter has all the best snacks, so nobody shows up.

So, in an experimental attempt to get the best of both worlds, I’m going to create a special Twitter list of our esteemed Gameday on Rocky Top community members and then embed it here. I don’t know that it’s going to offer anything better than all-Twitter or all-GRT, but I figure it’s worth a shot.

So . . . if you’d like to be included in the Twitter GRT Game Thread list, post your Twitter handle in the comment section below so I can add you.

Here goes nothing. 🙂

Go Vols!
A Twitter List by GamedayRockyTop

Two weeks into the season, our top two thoughts about the SEC East remain unchanged:

• Georgia is waaaaaaayyyyyyy better than everyone else; the Vols shouldn’t compare themselves to UGA right now.
• There’s little separation between the rest of the division; the Vols may have finished last in 2017, but how they do against the non-UGA East is still a good barometer in 2018.

South Carolina was the most popular choice to come in second; they got dusted by Georgia at home, trailing 41-10 until a late touchdown trimmed the final margin to 24. And on the other end of the spectrum, Kentucky beat Florida – in Gainesville – for the first time in more than three decades.

There’s an anything-can-happen feel to the rest of the division behind the Dawgs. Case in point: look who’s leading the non-UGA pack in S&P+ through two weeks:

Wyoming-over-Missouri was a trendy preseason pick; the Tigers routed the Cowboys 40-13 and now face a suddenly 0-2 Purdue team this week. And if your reflex is still to pick against Vanderbilt no matter what, you paid dearly for it the first two weeks: 35-7 over MTSU, 41-10 over Nevada.

These numbers will be tested over the next two weeks. Vanderbilt is in South Bend Saturday afternoon, Missouri hosts Georgia next week. We’ll see how good those two are against top-level competition. But the anything-can-happen-ness among the rest of the division is still good news for a Tennessee team looking to move its way up the ladder.

Recruiting is still the long-term solution, and Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Missouri are still not threats there. The Vols (11th) have the lead on South Carolina (16th) and Florida (18th) in the 247 Composite Rankings, but the Gators (53.3%) and Gamecocks (44.4%) now lead the Vols (40%) in blue chip ratio. Without the on-field results, it will be difficult for Jeremy Pruitt and staff to separate themselves from Muschamp and Mullen in recruiting.

That makes whatever separation can be earned on the field even more important. Thus Tennessee’s five most important games are all against the non-UGA SEC East, all of them some version of up for grabs. The Vols get one more tune-up this week, then the Gators, then three straight “brace yourself” opponents with a bye week thrown in for good measure. But whatever happens there or even against Florida, four of those most important games are in the last five down the stretch (plus Charlotte). What happens against those big rivals in the middle may feel like it carries more weight, but it may be what the Vols can do against their secondary rivals from the SEC East down the stretch that becomes the best sign of progress. For Tennessee to be successful, historically speaking, it has to separate itself from Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina. The Vols can’t allow those secondary rivalries to become actual rivalries in the long-term.

In the short-term, though, we should be in for interesting outcomes when these six teams face each other.

With it still being so early in the season, projecting games consists of attempting to identify what’s of value so far this season and what’s of value from last season, combining the two, and then comparing the result to your gut, which in the third game of any new season is on equal footing with data.

So let’s get to it. First, the predictions, and below them, the details:

Predictions

Tennessee rushing yards: 200

UTEP rushing yards: 125

Tennessee passing yards: 200

UTEP passing yards: 90

Tennessee points: 45

UTEP points: 10

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 159.5 rushing yards per game so far in this short season. UTEP is giving up 260.5 per game, which makes them the worst rushing defense the Vols have faced so far. UTEP’s run defense was similarly bad last season, so that supports the result from the small sample size of the 2018 season.

Tennessee got 129 rushing yards against West Virginia and 190 against ETSU. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against UTEP is 200.

UTEP rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 121.5 rushing yards per game so far in 2018, while the UTEP run game is averaging 183.5 yards per game. Last year, those numbers were 251.3 and 91.6, significantly worse for both teams.

West Virginia is averaging 203.5 rushing yards per game so far this season, and they put up 118 against the Vols. ETSU got 125 in Neyland. Based on all of that, I’m guessing UTEP will get maybe 125 yards rushing yards against Tennessee’s still-learning defense.

Tennessee passing

So far in 2018, Tennessee is averaging 198.0 passing yards per game, and UTEP is allowing 165.0. The Vols put up 224 against the Bucs and 172 against the Mountaineers, slightly more than their season average so far. My guess, then, is that Tennessee will end up with somewhere around 200 passing yards this weekend.

UTEP passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 249.0 passing yards per game so far this year, although they have West Virginia and Will Grier — who are averaging 382.5 passing yards per game through two games — on their resume. The Vols allowed only 69 to ETSU, which is now averaging 171.

UTEP is averaging only 125.0 passing yards per game so far this season, slightly less than the 134.9 they averaged in 2017.

Based on all of that, my expectation for the Vols’ passing defense in this game is that they’ll likely give up somewhere around 90 passing yards to UTEP.

Tennessee scoring

For what it’s worth, a 14-point game and a 59-point game gives Tennessee an average of 36.5 points per game this season. Their average last season was 19.8.

UTEP is currently allowing 41.0 points per game this season, a bit higher than their average of 36.8 last year.

The Vols scored 59 points against ETSU and 14 against West Virginia, which is allowing 15.5 points per game so far this year.

I think it’s probably safe to say that UTEP is closer to ETSU than West Virginia, so I’m going with an estimate of around 45 points against UTEP.

UTEP scoring

Tennessee is allowing 21.5 points per game so far in 2018. Last year, they allowed 29.1. Again, the variance is great when you consider ETSU and West Virginia were the two opponents.

UTEP’s offense is averaging 17.0 points per game this year after averaging 11.8 all of last year.

ETSU scored 28 points against Mars Hill but got only 3 against the Vols. The Mountaineers got 40 against Tennessee and then 52 against Youngstown State.

With that, I’m setting the expectation for UTEP’s points against the Vols at 10.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

So, I’m going with Vols 45, UTEP 10, a spread of -35.

The Vegas spread is between 30.5 and 31, with an over/under of 47-47.5, which converts to something like Tennessee 39, UTEP 8.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ gives the Vols a 98.8% chance of winning and spits out an expected score of 52.5-13.4, a spread of 39.1.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 98.4% chance of winning.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

Honestly, there’s not much worth watching early this week. Boston College and Wake Forest play on Thursday on ESPN and Memphis hosts Georgia State on Friday on ESPN, but this would be a good week to do some other stuff you’ve been meaning to get done.

Gameday

The Vols have the noon slot this weekend, and if you’re interested in seeing a couple of future opponents in action, your DVR can handle the Kentucky-Murray State and Vanderbilt-Notre Dame games.

At 3:30, you have a decision to make: Watch either a Top 12 matchup between No. 12 LSU and No. 7 Auburn or do a little scouting of Tennessee’s next opponent, as Florida takes on Colorado State. Or you could just channel hop between them.

That evening, there’s an interesting Top 25 matchup between No. 4 Ohio State and No. 15 TCU and a couple of future opponents in action, so while away the night with the remote in hand.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule