Gameday on Rocky Top

 

We all got through the moral victories phase long ago, so it’s hard to come out of the second-consecutive 26-point loss feeling anything warm-and-fuzzy about the Vols.

This year isn’t going to go like any of us hoped, and we’re just going to have to deal with that.

But, despite being overmatched and despite not getting Georgia’s best effort in what resulted in a 38-12 loss in Athens on Saturday, there were some definite positives if you’re looking through your orange-colored glasses. There were players who responded after last week’s six-turnover fiasco in a disastrous loss to Florida. There was fight all the way to the end when UGA did what it was supposed to do and took a Tennessee turnover and tacked on a shove-it score.

Jeremy Pruitt was almost defiant afterward, standing up for his players and getting emotional about just how far the program has come under him. Yes, the Vols are 2-3 with difficult games against Auburn, Alabama and South Carolina following the bye week, and yes, making a bowl game still looks like a glimmering light far in the distance, but the strides are still evident.

I’ve preached so many times already this season that we’ve got to take pride in the strides, and that is so hard to do when you’re not overly competitive with your rivals. But we still need to. I think it’s becoming quite clear just how far away we are from a talent perspective.

Georgia big-boyed us on that final touchdown drive before the turnover tack-on, and that was tough to see for a team that wanted — maybe even needed — the good vibes that come with keeping it respectable on the scoreboard. But, until then, Tennessee traded punches pretty well.

Take this into consideration: Seven of Georgia’s points came on a fluke fumble recovery by Isaac Nauta after Nauta missed his block on Darrell Taylor, who stripped Jake Fromm of the ball. Nauta picked up the ball and raced 31 yards for the game’s first score.

When the Vols finally put the ball on the ground at the end of the game, UGA marched right down and scored then, too.

But if you take away those two bad bounces/mistakes, UT was schematically fine, at least on defense. It’s very encouraging to see how well Taylor rushed the passer, forcing two fumbles and registering a sack. It was great to see sophomore Will Ignont flying around out there, and though he had a couple of run fits that will hurt his grade in final film study, he’s the type of athlete the Vols need on the second level, and he’s developing.

At times throughout Saturday’s game, Tennessee had three true freshmen playing together in the secondary in Bryce Thompson, Alontae Taylor and Trevon Flowers, and those guys are getting more dependable, too.

The defensive line isn’t great, but they’re making strides. The massive chunk-yardage plays the Vols were allowing a year ago aren’t as frequent anymore, and within the framework of drives, UT was strong, riding the ebbs and flows and getting off the field against a superior team.

Sure, Georgia wound up laying the hammer down, but it was more of situation of being gassed rather than outclassed.

It’s easy to see where the maturity needs to come. Offensively, I’m still frustrated with Tyson Helton’s play-calling, and I’m not excited about Pruitt’s decision to punt near midfield late in the game still down multiple scores. At that point, you gamble because you need to try to win. It was almost as if he was content to keep it close, and that’s not the killer instinct you want. The decision to go for two after the second touchdown was puzzling too, but that’s understandable, and it’s erring on the side of aggression, which will always get you a free pass with me. Those were snafus from which he’ll grow, and, like his team, he’s learning on the fly, too.

Jarrett Guarantano’s toughness is evident, and though he still isn’t where he needs to be, he’s getting better. I thought the offensive line was much better at times against Georgia, even though the running game still struggled to get traction. Ty Chandler in space is something we need to see more of; and it’s disappointing that he only got five carries and five catches. To beat teams like UGA, you must get the ball in your playmakers’ hands, and Helton has to do a better job of that.

Scheming around the inefficiencies of the offensive line hamstrings Helton and UT’s offense, and until that improves dramatically, we’re all going to be frustrated with the results.

But the best thing coming out of Saturday is we aren’t the team that laid an egg against Florida. If that’s our identity, we were going to be watching the worst Tennessee team in school history, and it’s encouraging to see the Vols clean up some of the mistakes, even if there are reams more to fix.

Looking ahead, this team isn’t hopeless for 2018, and I’m very encouraged by the groundwork being laid for the future. It will take two recruiting classes, but the defense will ultimately continue to improve. The Vols must get better offensive playmakers, but, again, that can be fixed by recruiting. Helton needs to get in a better groove and earn his money, but that also should be better with better players. (Doesn’t that cure all?)

We know two things about this year’s Vols: 1) we can’t afford to make mistakes like turnovers and penalties because we aren’t good enough to give anybody extra possessions and win, but 2) when we don’t make those mistakes, we’ll be in football games because they’re well-coached and well-prepared, even if they’re not well-equipped from an athlete standpoint to hang with the elites.

Kentucky looks like a difficult game, but it’s not unwinnable. While Missouri looks like a matchup nightmare because of its passing game, the Vols could be much-improved by then. There’s also no reason right now to mark off the Auburn, South Carolina or Vanderbilt off the list now. The Tigers have some issues, and though the Vols will be double-digit underdogs, it could help to have an extra week to prepare. South Carolina has better talent, too, but the Gamecocks have underachieved.

Six wins still seems like a long ways away, but it’s not impossible. Last week, I thought it was impossible.

That may be the smallest inkling of hope, but at least it’s some. This Tennessee team is beginning to learn how to play football the right way, and even though it won’t always do it, we’re starting to see the Vols being in position to make plays on defense and hitting a few things downfield on offense.

If you can’t see Pruitt’s passion for this team and this program, you’re not looking hard enough. This year is tough on us all, but it’s toughest on him and the players. Let’s just keep watching them improve. Maybe, by the end of the year, it will show in the win column.

If not, at least the frustration of building a foundation will be over.

The Tennessee Volunteers were still into the game well into the fourth quarter this afternoon but ultimately gave way to the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs, 38-12.

The game got off to a typically ominous start for Tennessee when Darrell Taylor sacked Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm on third-and-9 and caused him to fumble. The two most likely outcomes of a play like that are a Tennessee guy falling on the ball or a Georgia guy falling on the ball and the Bulldogs settling for a field goal attempt. Instead, the ball bounced right into the hands of Georgia tight end Isaac Nauta, who ran 31 yards for a touchdown. Of course.

Tennessee’s offense wasn’t exactly stymied in the first half, but they certainly stalled out without anything to show for it and were scoreless in the first half. Similarly, the defense was doing some good things but wasn’t exactly keeping Georgia from gaining yards. They forced a couple of punts and held the Bulldogs to a field goal before finally giving up the game’s first earned touchdown late in the first half. The teams went to the locker room with Georgia leading 17-0.

Georgia opened the second half with a touchdown, making the score 24-0 and threatening to runaway with it like we’d all feared, but Tennessee put together a 10-play, 75-yard drive on its first possession of the second half, capped by a 37-yard touchdown pass from Jarrett Guarantano to Josh Palmer.

In the most interesting part of the game, the Tennessee defense then held, the offense punted, and the defense held again, and then the Vols added another touchdown when Guarantano hooked up with Ty Chandler for a 35-yard touchdown.

At that point, it was a 12-point game (Georgia 24, Tennessee 12) with 11:10 to go in the fourth quarter. The Vols had the last two scores and its defense had forced two short drives that ended in punts for Georgia. But the Bulldogs sealed the game on their next possession with a 13-play, 75-yard drive that drained 7:39 off the clock, and that was the end of that.

A fumble by running back Jeremy Banks on Tennessee’s next play signaled the beginning of garbage time, as it gave Georgia a short field, another touchdown, and a final score of 38-12.

The bad

Even though the outcome of the game was in doubt for a longer period of time than anticipated, it was clear to both the eye and the box score that Georgia was the much better team and it was still another 26-point loss for the Vols. Georgia had 25 first downs to Tennessee’s 11, and they had 410 total yards to the Vols’ 209.

The Vols still started slow, still found themselves victim to The Weirdness, and still made several crucial mistakes. Marquez Callaway going out with an apparent concussion is very bad news for him and for the team as well. Also, there’s at least one guy in the secondary who appears to be actively avoiding contact.

The good

On the other hand, this is what the team looks like when they’re not turning the ball over an unnatural six times in a single game, and although it’s not yet up to standards, it’s not embarrassing. The guys appeared to be tougher. There was more falling forward, gaining a couple of yards at the end of a play rather than losing a couple. The offense scored some points against a terrific defense, and the defense held Georgia to a respectable 31 points until garbage time.

There’s still a lot of work to do, and there are still several challenging weeks ahead, but you can see the glimmers of something good beginning to take shape.

That video of Vols defensive coordinator Chris Rumph (starting at 13:59) talking about why he does what he does is one of my all-time favorite things. I’ve tried (and usually failed) many times to explain to friends and family that one of the reasons I love college football is that it’s simultaneously just a game and not just a game. Rumph gets at the same notion when he says that football is about life. It’s not just about tackling and sacks and the obvious football stuff, it’s also about who you are becoming while you’re doing what you’re doing.

To Rumph, his primary purpose isn’t to teach football but to disciple and mentor kids, and football is merely the context through which he does it.

That there is something underneath the surface of football that makes it even more special resonates with me as a fan. As much as I enjoy the games and everything that comes with them, I also beam with pride when I see evidence of the guys growing up before the cameras and the crowds. Call me a sap, I don’t care. The game and the media and the crowd can at times deliver some particularly cruel blows to these college kids, and I cheer every time they get back up, weather the storm, and get back to work chasing their dreams, stronger in life for the lessons they’ve learned on the field.

College football is great and fun on the surface, but it’s the below-the-surface stuff that keeps me coming back even when things aren’t going well on the field. It’s a bitter pill, but the truth is that sometimes – for players, fans, people in general – you grow more as a person when the results you’ve been striving and hoping for leave you disappointed. And the perseverance and determination make the success, when it comes, that much sweeter.

So, yeah. It’s not just about tackling and sacks and all the football stuff; it’s also about who you are becoming while you’re doing what you’re doing.

The fan experience

That truth applies to a multitude of contexts other than playing football, too, including merely watching people play football. I love the gamedays and the gameweeks and the moments and the winning when it comes, but often, when the appeal of those things wanes, I look underneath the surface for something to learn.

Suffice it to say, over the next month or so we Vols fans are going to have a lot of opportunities to learn some non-football stuff.

You can’t preempt pain

One of the things I’ve already learned over the course of 13 years of service as a long-suffering Vols fan blogging about the team is that you simply cannot dull pain just by bracing for it.

It’s not like we haven’t tried. As I said just a little over a month ago when anticipating this season’s mistakes, we often tell ourselves in advance of what we know will be challenging seasons that X number of wins is a reasonable expectation. We stoically brace for a loss before the game but then become enraged when we actually witness in real time the maddening details that contribute to that loss.

You can’t avoid the pain just by imagining it beforehand. You just can’t. You have to experience it.

Rumph would be quick to point out that this is as true in life as it is on the football field and in the stands. And one can help prepare you for the other. Pardon a brief digression into the personal while I explain.

Non-football stuff

Have you ever had to put a pet down? I have. It was a difficult but rational decision to conclude that we no longer had a choice but to relieve our beloved dog Oreo of her misery a couple of years ago. And yet I was totally unraveled by the details when the day came to actually do it. I hadn’t imagined standing over her whispering “You’re a good dog, you’re a good dog” over and over into her ear as her body relaxed on the table. I was prepared, but not for that.

Have you ever had a loved one on hospice? I knew my mom was going to lose her battle with cancer last year, but knowing it afforded no protection from the torment of the process. I was still completely undone sitting beside her, attempting to sing her favorite songs with a broken voice, wondering which of those difficult breaths would be her last. Knowing that day would come didn’t make it easier.

I dwelled on all of this last Sunday afternoon as I sat alone in an unsold tailgating chair in my Kingsport store after turning out the lights. I’d already known this past summer that the day would almost certainly come this fall that we’d have to close it down for good. I was at peace with knowing the time was approaching. But it didn’t actually happen until last weekend, and it sucked.

Life is going to throw you a bunch of crap in a variety of contexts, whether it’s something as serious as the loss of a loved one or something more trivial like watching your favorite sports team lose in spectacular new ways.

And even if you take the time to anticipate and prepare for the pain – in life, on the football field, in the stands –you can’t fully comprehend it until it comes time to experience it.

That’s the bad news, but there’s also good news: Anticipating and preparing for bad news and bad days can help you survive it, and when it’s over, you’ll be better for it.

Back to football

As I said earlier, football is just a game, and yet it’s also more than just a game. It’s about practicing and playing and cheering, and it’s about wins and losses and all of that other surface football stuff, yes. But it’s also about the underneath stuff, who we’re becoming while we’re doing what we’re doing. What we’re doing here is rooting for the Vols. It’s a relatively unimportant activity. But what important things might we learn while doing it?

By all accounts, the rebuilding Tennessee football team is headed for some potentially very bad days over the next month or so. No amount of knowing it, expecting it, or planning for it will shield us from the misery. It’s going to hurt. Absent some miracle (or just checking out as a fan), there’s no way around that.

What can we do about it? Hold on. Steel your resolve. Assume the crash position. Put a phonebook in your pants. Do whatever you need to do to get ready for a rough ride.

It’s not going to be fun, but better days await on the other side.

And when it’s finally over, we might just be stronger, wiser, and better for it.

For when it’s really important.

Ready?

Steady.

Go.

(This is a real list!)

It’s not easy to measure progress when you’ve taken a pair of 26-point losses to teams you talked yourself into beating leading up to game week. It’s only Friday, but I don’t think many of us are talking ourselves into much against Georgia. But it’s also possible – especially after a six-turnover performance – to swing too hard the other way.

It may feel like baby steps, but so far this team does a couple things really well, especially compared to their predecessors.

Third Down Defense

Let’s start with the most straightforward way to understand it: the Vols allow a conversion on 24.5% of opponent attempts (stats from Sports Source Analytics). That’s currently sixth-best in the nation. Last year the Vols allowed conversions on 45.2% of opponent attempts, 113th nationally.

But there’s more. What caught my eye on this stat was Bill Connelly’s advanced statistical profiles, where Tennessee is currently first in the country in defending third-and-medium.

We charted every one of the 49 third downs against the Vol defense this season. Jeremy Pruitt’s troops have allowed a dozen conversions. Five of them were in the second half of the West Virginia game. Tennessee hasn’t been great at stopping third-and-short: teams are 6-of-9 when needing three yards or less on third down. The Vols are 83rd nationally in Connelly’s categorization of thid-and-short.

But once it gets to 3rd-and-4+, it’s been a very different story. The Vols have allowed first downs on just 6-of-40 (15%) attempts of 3rd-and-4+. One of those was in garbage time on the final drive last week.

Tennessee may not be built to handle third-and-short right now, but they’ve done an excellent job so far handling everything else, especially when not facing West Virginia’s offense.

Explosive Plays in the Passing Game

As you’ve probably heard, Tennessee already has more plays of 50+ yards (six) in four games than they had all of last season (four). Five of those have come via the passing game, plus Ty Chandler’s run against UTEP. Only Hawaii, with the benefit of an extra game in week zero, has more 50+ yard passing plays so far this year; the Vols are tied with five other teams for second nationally.

What’s most impressive about that: Tennessee has only attempted 85 passes this year, 115th nationally.

Here are the SEC leaders in adjusted completion percentage on throws 10+ yards downfield: pic.twitter.com/2tvNLuCg2N

— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) September 27, 2018

The Vols do indeed run the ball a lot, and I worry about our quarterback getting hit every single time we don’t. But when he gets it off, Guarantano has been pretty good at getting the most out of his attempts. He is currently fourth among SEC quarterbacks and 20th nationally at 9.1 yards per attempt. The bad news: Jake Fromm is third (10.7), and Tua Tagovailoa is first at…12.9? Get out of here with that. (Fulmerized).

These numbers, like many other things for Tennessee, may go south the next few weeks. But in the first four games, we may have also seen enough to suggest some truth here that might show up in November. And they are significant steps of progress from last year, even in the middle of a frustrating start in the win column.

I have never felt the way I did sitting in Neyland Stadium last week. Ever. It was a hopeless, helpless feeling. Being competitive feels so far away as everything fell apart in what wound up being a 47-21 loss to Florida.

I didn’t even see the last touchdown because I left early for just the third time in all the years, all the games I’ve been to. I was disgusted and disgruntled. And here’s the thing: It’s likely going to be worse this week. It probably will be worse against Auburn. It absolutely will be cringe-worthy worse against Alabama.

We’re fans, though. We’ve got to suck it up and hope. This weekend, the Vols head to Athens where they are more than 31-point underdogs. That’s unfathomable to me, especially considering we’re just a couple years removed from this game traditionally being decided by a score or less.

But things have changed. UGA is one of the top teams in the nation, coming into this tilt with the Vols ranked No. 2. Kirby Smart is recruiting as well as anybody in the nation. Not only is it going to hurt seeing former 5-star commitment Cade Mays playing in the red and black, he’s starting and shining as a true freshman.

It’s enough to make you sick, on top of everything else.

Nobody expects Tennessee to be anywhere near in this game, so — look on the bright side — if the Vols come out and surprise everybody, it could make us feel much better about the direction of the season.

Again, though, don’t expect it. Not this week.

KEYS

Stop the slow

I know that every week this is on the list, and it will be until the Vols stop it. They absolutely cannot get off to a slow start every week; they aren’t good enough to overcome it.

Against West Virginia, the Mountaineers punched them in the mouth right away, and UT never recovered. Against two awful teams in ETSU and UTEP, the Vols sputtered at the front. Then, against the Gators, UT turned the football over on the first two possessions, watched Florida convert them into touchdowns, and it was never close.

Shawn Shamburger even fumbled the second half’s opening kickoff leading to a one-play Gators scoring drive, proving that there’s something about layoffs that is killing the Vols.

Jeremy Pruitt must do something about that. If it happens this week, the Dawgs will blow them out of Samford Stadium.

Squeaky clean

Say what you want about last weekend’s embarrassment, and there’s plenty to say about how thoroughly ugly it was. But UT turned the ball over six — SIX!!!! — times.

The Vols literally handed Florida 28 points on a silver platter. Two of Jarrett Guarantano’s turnovers were directly turned into touchdowns. Shamburger’s second-half special teams blunder led to another touchdown. Then, we won’t soon forget Austin Pope fumbling through the end zone on another would-be score for the Vols.

That’s 21 points for Florida and -7 points for the Vols.

Tennessee lost by 26.

You do the math.

The Vols aren’t good enough to overcome those mistakes. Against a team like Georgia, the Bulldogs will make things ugly quickly if it continues. Tennessee has to take care of the ball.

Keep Guarantano clean, too

There’s nothing wrong with the way redshirt sophomore Guarantano has played this year. Those calling for somebody else to start are being ridiculous.

But he still hangs onto the ball too long, and he still gets shaky when defenders are breathing down his neck. Yes, Guarantano is a super-tough kid, but he also isn’t the biggest quarterback, and Cece Jefferson knocked him out of the UF game [albeit with a cheap shot]. The Vols can’t afford to A) get him hurt or B) let him operate under as much duress as he has so far.

Guarantano needs to do a better job of moving the pocket, and if offensive coordinator Tyson Helton was smart [which is still far up in the air at this point] he would design some plays to help him do that. But Tennessee’s offensive line is horrible, and it can’t continue that way.

If what is trotting out there isn’t working, change it. Give K’Rojhn Calbert a shot. Give Marcus Tatum an extended look. Move Trey Smith back inside. Do SOMETHING (anything?) to make things easier on JG.

The kid isn’t good when he’s being pressured. Think Georgia and Mel Tucker don’t know that? You’re crazy.

Turnover time

Tennessee’s defense was not bad against Florida, and it’s obvious the Vols are improving on that side of the ball. They were excellent in third-down defense, and when Florida had long fields, they didn’t do all that well.

Yes, there were too many big plays, but the Vols weren’t bad. It needs to get better and better.

One thing UT needs to do is generate more big plays. Pruitt’s defense needs to create game-changing plays, helping its offense out in this one. Without them, Tennessee cannot win.

Color blind

I fully believe the Vols aren’t as awful as they were last Saturday night. If they are, it’s going to be at least three years before they’re back; plain and simple. Instead, I think it was just too many mistakes, and once they got down against Florida, nobody expected they were going to beat Florida.

That jersey holds sway over UT. Always has.

The red-and-black jerseys haven’t, and they don’t need to start now. If the Vols play scared football, they’ll get killed because UGA is a much, much better football team with far more talent. The Vols need to play with swagger, and they need to play with a clean slate. It’s the only way to have hope.

Prediction: Georgia 41, Tennessee 14

LOCKS

We. Are. Back!

After an awful week last time out, we rebounded with a 5-2 slate to improve to 16-12 for the season. That’s makin’ money, y’all! That’s a good thing, too, because we need to stay hot. Because, you know, the Vols ain’t. And we’ve got to have some reason to watch college football.

Here is this week’s lucky seven.

1. West Virginia -3.5 over Texas Tech: I will forever believe that a Will Grier-led team will obliterate a team with zero defense. Texas Tech can score, but the Red Raiders will not score enough to win this game. At least the Mountaineers play a little bit of defense.
2. Purdue -3.5 over Nebraska: A week ago, I said the Boilermakers were the best 0-3 team in football. Now they’re the best 1-3 team in football. And though Adrian Martinez will be back for Scott Frost’s team, the Cornhuskers’ issues are deeper than just quarterback. Jeff Brohm keeps it rolling.
3. Hawaii -11.5 over San Jose State: I feel like Vegas is still disrespecting Cole McDonald’s dual-threat abilities. Now he’s going against an atrocious pass defense. Warriors will dominate this one.
4. Florida Atlantic -4.5 over MTSU: Lane Kiffin is coming back to Tennessee as a head coach for the first time since he was with the Vols. It’s on a much smaller stage, but he may be playing a better team than the Vols. His Owls will still outscore Brent Stockstill and the Raiders.
5. North Texas -7.5 over Louisiana Tech: La Tech is a good team. The Mean Green is the most underrated team in the nation. Yes, Arkansas is terrible, but North Texas DOMINATED an SEC team, even if it’s a shell of an SEC team. I’m riding the Green.
6. Ohio State/Penn State under 67.5: It’s going to be a fun matchup watching the Nittany Lions offensive line against the Buckeyes defensive line, and it’s a shame Nick Bosa is out until November. But it’s not like these teams are devoid of defense. This is a huge number. The under is screaming at me.
7. BYU +17 over Washington: I love the way Kalani Sitake gets his team up for big games. I also am not a believer in the Huskies anymore as Jake Browning has regressed as much as any “star” player in college football since Matt Barkley. Washington was favored by far too much against Arizona State last week, and I said take the Sun Devils. They covered with ease. Do the same this week with the Cougs.

We’re now to the point of the season where we can rely primarily on 2018 data, although the sample set is still small enough to view it with a healthy dose of skepticism. So, while we say goodbye to 2017 data, our stewpot still includes eyes and guts to go along with the 2018 data.

So let’s get to it. First, the predictions, and below them, the details:

Predictions

SPM: Georgia 37, Tennessee 15

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Georgia 45, Tennessee 13

Tennessee rushing yards: 60

Georgia rushing yards: 200

Tennessee passing yards: 150

Georgia passing yards: 220

Tennessee points: 13

Georgia points: 45

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 205.0 rushing yards per game, while Georgia is giving up 118.8 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Georgia, is Florida (although it’s not very close at all), which is giving up 187.8 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 156 against them.

Surprisingly, West Virginia is actually better than Georgia at defending the run so far this season, allowing only 118.7 rushing yards per game. Tennessee got 129 on the ground against the Mountaineers.

Looking at things from Georgia’s perspective, they held South Carolina — which is averaging 196.7 yards per game on the ground — to only 54. Oof.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Georgia is 60.

Georgia rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 134.8 rushing yards per game, while the Georgia run game is averaging 250.3 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, but again, it’s not a very good comparison, as the Gators are getting only 189.0 yards per game on the ground. They ran for 201 against Tennessee.

Georgia will be the best rushing offense the Vols have played so far this season. Oof.

Looking through Georgia’s eyes, they ran for 271 against South Carolina and 185 against Missouri. Both of these results were far above (not far from double) what those teams usually give up on the ground (163 for South Carolina and 102.3 for Missouri).

All of that said, I’m guessing Georgia puts up 200 yards rushing against the Vols on Saturday.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 192.8 passing yards per game, and Georgia is allowing 173.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 185.3 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 172 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP. They’re allowing 163.3 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 167 against them.

Viewing things from Georgia’s perspective doesn’t shed much light on the subject.

My guess is that Tennessee will net somewhere around 150 passing yards this weekend.

Georgia passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 180.8 passing yards per game. Georgia is getting 227.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 194.5 yards per game through the air, and they got 186 against Tennessee.

The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 373.7 passing yards per game and got 429 against Tennessee.

When playing South Carolina, Georgia put up 30 more yards than the average that South Carolina is giving up (they got 202).

I’m going with Georgia putting up about 220 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 29.5 points per game, and Georgia is allowing 13.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is allowing 16.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 21 against them.

The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 12.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them. So, the Vols appear to be doing a little better than its opponents’ averages.

On the other hand, South Carolina is averaging 34.3 points per game but got only 17 against Georgia.

My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 13 points against the Bulldogs.

Georgia scoring

Tennessee is allowing 22.5 points per game. Georgia is averaging 44.5, making them the best scoring offense the Vols have seen this season. Oof.

The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 42.3 points, and they got 40 against Tennessee.

South Carolina’s defense is giving up an average of 23.3 points per game, and Georgia got 41 against them. Oof.

I’m going with Georgia basically hitting their average of 45 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

Left alone, the SPM says Georgia 37, Tennessee 15, a spread of 22.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with Georgia 45, Tennessee 13, a spread of 32.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Georgia has a 93.5% chance of winning and puts the score at Georgia 44.9, Tennessee 18.6, a spread of 26.3.

The Vegas spread favors Georgia by between 31 and 32, with an over/under of 51.5-52, which converts to something like Georgia 42, Tennessee 10.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols only a 2.6% chance of winning.

Oof.

 

 

 

Thursday

 

Gameday

 

At noon this Gameday, West Virginia has what is probably its first real test of the season when the Mountaineers meet No. 25 Texas Tech. West Virginia looking good may make us feel a little better. You can also tune into future opponent Alabama’s game against Louisiana if you like horror movies and don’t want to feel better.

Then it’s Vols-Bulldogs at 3:30 on CBS, with Tennessee a huge underdog on the road against the first of three Top 10 teams in a row. Woo. Go Vols.

Tennessee’s next opponent, Auburn, is also in action at 3:30, so if you want to both watch the Vols live and do a little scouting for next week, fire up the DVR to catch the Tigers. Spoiler alert: They’re going to look good against Southern Miss.

Also relevant to Tennessee at 3:30 is Florida traveling to No. 23 Mississippi State. Opinions will differ on this, but I’m hoping that the Bulldogs beat the scales off the Gators. Sure, the Gators winning or doing well might make Vols fans feel better about last week, but I don’t want to finish last in the SEC East, and I want no good things for Gators while we’re both trying to climb out of our respective craters. Hail State.

The evening slate is full to the brim with Top 25 matchups, the headliner being either No. 4 Ohio State at No. 9 Penn State or No. 7 Stanford at No. 8 Notre Dame, depending on your wiring. South Carolina also travels to No. 17 Kentucky, so that’s a good one to both channel hop live and DVR for future reference.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Looking at the national statistical rankings after Week 4, Tennessee’s rushing offense continues to lead in the clubhouse for most improved from 2017.

Meanwhile, another week of data lends credibility to the notion that Tennessee’s defense is actually improving rather quickly under the tutelage of Jeremy Pruitt and his staff.

Negating all of that on the scoreboard, of course, is the fact that the Vols went from 7th in the nation to 102nd in turnovers lost and from 29th to 108th in turnover margin in a single short week. Six turnovers will doom any team, especially one already struggling to find its footing.

Offense

Raise your hand if you’re kinda sorta surprised at some of this. Rushing offense is almost encouraging, and when you compare most of the offensive rankings to the end of last season, they’re actually improved. That’s, of course, what caused me to add in the column for just after the Florida game last season, which means, it’s before Alabama and Georgia. The comparison of those two immediate-post-Florida snapshots seems to comport more with intuition. It also tells us to brace for more sacks and TFLs in the coming weeks.

Defense

This is actually quite encouraging. Almost everything on defense is better, both when compared to this time last year and the entire 2017 season. The team has been really good on third down and first down so far this year, and ranking in the Top 15 in total defense with West Virginia on the resume isn’t too shabby. I know that Florida isn’t an offensive juggernaut, but this does show that those 47 points they scored on the Vols came mostly from turnovers and field position, not yards.

Also surprising is that TFLs and sacks, while not up to Tennessee’s standards, are actually somewhat improved from last year.

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

Wow. Look at that change in the bottom three turnover categories. Yowza.