Gameday on Rocky Top

The rumor mill hasn’t been kind to the Vols this week as there are whispers that freshman safety Trevon Flowers has a collarbone injury and is walking around campus in a sling after getting hurt in practice.

It seems even when Tennessee doesn’t play, it loses.

The Vols need to get healthy this week before the Auburn-Alabama-South Carolina gauntlet, but it appears the opposite is happening. The Vols hopefully used this off week to work on fundamentals, and the coaches needed to use it to get a head start on Auburn.

Believe it or not, the Tigers are beatable. Sure, UT should (and will) be double-digit underdogs at Jordan-Hare Stadium, but AU isn’t explosive. It’s defense is really, really good, but the offense isn’t going to scare anybody. This weekend’s game against Mississippi State will be a rugged tilt, and the Tigers could be banged-up heading into the game. Let’s look at just two things Tennessee should have done in the bye week.

KEYS

Develop the youngsters who look like possible difference-makers

It’s going to be interesting to see if there are any players we’ve not seen much of yet this year who can get on the field during the second half of the season. Star prospect linebacker JJ Peterson came in out-of-shape long after practice began, but the Vols would be thrilled if he was coming along and was able to provide valuable snaps.

Will that happen? If it does, we’ve not heard anything about it yet.

Beyond Peterson, though, there are some good, young players who’ve shown flashes this year. If they can emerge and get more consistent, Tennessee will be a better, more athletic, more talented team. Some of those guys are:

Linebackers Will Ignont and Quart’e Sapp. Ignont is a sophomore who is earning more and more trust and playing time. It doesn’t look like he’d always grade out well and isn’t always in the right place, but he plays fast and makes tackles. He just needs to be more consistent. A week after the rumors of Sapp leaving the sideline against Florida, he played his most snaps against Georgia and was a playmaker. It’s obvious the junior needs to be on the field. The Vols need to keep him there.

Of course, defensive backs Bryce Thompson, Alontae Taylor (and Flowers, if he’s healthy) upgrade the back end. They needed to spend the off week learning and playing faster. If Flowers is out, it’s time for Shawn Shamburger to get out of the doghouse and back on the field.

Defensive lineman Matthew Butler, wide receiver Jordan Murphy and running back Jeremy Banks are other guys who need to be more disciplined, get more consistent and earn snaps. The Vols need to be looking to the future while playing in the present.

Find important depth

Coach Jeremy Pruitt made a couple of position switches this week, moving fullback Ja’Quain Blakeley and tight end LaTrell Bumphus to the defensive line where UT needs depth and athleticism.

What if one of those guys stick and is able to provide snaps? They aren’t really contributing where they were, so it doesn’t hurt to try them there. Both are excellent athletes who need to work their way onto the field somewhere.

Will there be other guys emerge, too? UT hopes so.

LOCKS

Meh, we went 3-4 last week as the early-night games killed us. Thanks for nothing, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, BYU and Hawaii. You’d been good to us until last week, and this is the thanks we get? Thankfully, the Ohio State-Penn State under, Purdue and West Virginia saved us from total disaster.

We are at 19-16 ATS on the year. Yeah, that needs to be better. This week, we’re going 7-0.

• Missouri -1.5 over South Carolina: This line has moved so much in the Tigers’ favor this week, and rightfully so. Yes, I know this is in Columbia, S.C., but Drew Lock and Co. are coming off a bye week and that offense will be clicking. They cover easy.
• Alabama/Arkansas over 58: Alabama could hit this number on its own, even though the Hogs’ defense isn’t bad at all. It won’t go way over, but the Hogs will add some late points against UA’s third-team defense to go over.
• Syracuse -3.5 over Pittsburgh: This definitely has letdown game written all over it after the Orange’s near-upset at Clemson a week ago. But the Panthers aren’t great, and Dino Babers’ team is solid and on the come-up. Syracuse wins this one by a touchdown or more.
• LSU -2 over Florida: Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t understand this line at all. Both defenses are strong, but Feleipe Franks against that LSU secondary? Ugh. Tigers will win by double-digits in the Swamp.
• Miami -13 over Florida State: If there’s one I’m not sure about out of these seven, it’s this one. But the Seminoles are awful, and Miami is resurgent with N’Kosi Perry at QB. Turnover chains jangle against Deondre Francois.
• Ole Miss/Louisiana-Monroe under 75.5: Ole Miss may have the worst defense in the Power 5, but it isn’t bad enough to get trounced by Monroe. The Rebels are going to work on some things in this one that will slow things down a little. This one won’t approach the number.
• California -2.5 over Arizona: Free money. Kevin Sumlin-Khalil Tate is a dreadful marriage, and the Wildcats just can’t score enough. Justin Wilcox still has things moving in the right direction at Berkeley even after last week’s bad showing against Oregon.

It will not surprise you to find (via data from Sports Source Analytics) the Vols are still near the bottom in running the football in the first quarter: 46 carries for 74 yards, a robust 1.61 yards per carry. That first quarter average is 128th nationally (good news: Charlotte is 130th). The Vols are a not-great-but-not-terrible 78th nationally in rushing average overall (4.2 yards per carry); of note, that’s better than Auburn (4.17), among others. Tennessee averages 4.02 yards in the second quarter, 7.33 in the third (bolstered by Ty Chandler’s 81-yard touchdown), and back to 4.02 in the fourth. In our running theme (no pun intended) for this year, the ground game never achieves excellence, but becomes competent as the game goes on. But that is far from the truth in the first quarter.

When you look at each player’s overall stats, it seems more simple than it actually is: Ty Chandler has 40 carries for 247 yards (6.18 per), and Madre London has 36 for 205 (5.69). But Chandler had only four carries before getting hurt against West Virginia, and had a good-but-not-great 19-for-66 (3.47 per) against Florida. London had 11-for-66 against the Gators, but only six yards on three carries last week. Tim Jordan, who looked very much like the answer against West Virginia, has just 43 carries for 140 yards in the last four games. It’s tough when you’re trying to rotate carries among four backs. But none of them are getting the Vols off to a good start in the first quarter.

The Vols are also 24th nationally in carries on first down: 105 runs, 39 passes. If the desire is to make defenses expect the run early, it’s working fairly well when the Vols actually do throw it on first down: 28-of-39 for 407 yards (10.4 yards per attempt). A 71.8% completion percentage is 13th nationally on first down.

But a lot of the issues in the run game aren’t just about running early in the game or a series, but on third-and-short. Tennessee has repeatedly tried to muscle their way forward on 3rd-and-1, and the results haven’t been pretty. On 3rd-and-1-to-3, the Vols have 12 carries for 11 yards. Only five of those 12 runs have picked up the first down. I’ve found myself almost wishing for the Vols to be in 3rd-and-4 than 3rd-and-1, because they’ll at least give themselves more options. The numbers back this up too: on 3rd-and-4-to-6, the Vols have converted five first downs on nine passing attempts. Tennessee is more successful throwing the ball on third-and-medium than running it on third-and-short.

 

Thursday, Friday

There’s really not much worth watching before Saturday this week, unless you just need to see something because it’s football.

Gameday

 

The Vols are off this week, so it’s a good week for channel-hopping and talking and catching up with chores and projects and stuff. As far as the games go, the Red River Rivalry headlines the noon slot and could be an especially good one this year. You also get to root for West Virginia while you remind anyone within ear shot that more than half of the Vols’ opponents so far have been in the Top 10 at some point already this season. Woo.

The priority in the 3:30 slot is No. 5 LSU traveling to No. 22 Florida — Geaux Tigahs. And in the evening, we get to see a couple of future opponents as Auburn travels to Mississippi State and Kentucky goes to Texas A&M. Vanderbilt is also at Georgia, and that could be instructive as to our expectations for the Vols game against the Commodores.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

When you compare Tennessee’s national rankings in all of the major NCAA stat categories for this year to this time last year, you see that the defense has improved, especially in some of the most important categories. On offense, the passing game is more reliable and the run game is slightly better than this time last year. And you might be surprised to find that the turnover numbers were basically just as bad after the Georgia game in 2017 as they have been so far in 2018.

Offense

Bottom line here, I think, is that if you compare After Georgia 2018 to After Georgia 2017, you see a lot more green this year. The passing game, while still not exactly jet-propelled, is at least fairly safe and efficient. Most everything else is basically about the same as last year at this time, except that Rushing Offense and Red Zone Offense are slightly improved.

Defense

This time last year, the only green for the defense came in a couple of quirky categories. Passing Yards Allowed looked great, but many would argue it was due to the run defense being so bad that no opponent in their right mind would ever choose to throw it against the Vols. Fourth down conversions are likely a very small sample set.

Aside from that, most things are much better so far this year for Tennessee, including the all-important categories of Rushing Defense, 3rd Down Defense, and First Downs Defense. There are still some things that need fixing and still a lot of room for improvement everywhere, but it’s beginning to look like things are actually getting better on this side of the ball.

Special Teams

The return game has fallen off since last season, especially for punts.

Turnovers and Penalties

I was a bit surprised to find that this isn’t really all that much different from this time last year. The turnover luck is terrible, but it was bad last year, too.

Will, Brad, and I all seem to be in agreement about what to draw from the Vols’ loss to Georgia this week, namely that it was a reminder of how far we still have to go but also positive progress. Meanwhile, some future opponents looked more beatable and some less.

My new expected win total after Week 5 is 4.9, up from 4.55 last week, but still down from 5.5 the week prior to that.

I have Alabama still at 5%, Auburn down to 25% (from 15%), Kentucky steady at 25%, South Carolina back to 40% (from 25% last week), Missouri steady at 40%, Vanderbilt down to 60% (from 50%), and Charlotte steady at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Charlotte, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in Big 12

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Kansas, TBD
• Iowa State, TBD
• Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
• Texas, TBD
• #17 TCU, TBD
• #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
• #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 4-1 (3-0)

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Gardner-Webb, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
• Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
• W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-5 (0-1), 2nd in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• North Texas, 7:30 PM ET
• LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Rice, 3:30 PM ET
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 4-1 (2-1), 2nd in SEC – East

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• #6 LSU, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Missouri, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 5-0 (3-0), 1st in SEC – East

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• #6 LSU, TBD
• Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Kentucky, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• UMass, TBD
• Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-1 (1-1), 2nd in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• #14 Miss St, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Liberty, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – West

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• #6 LSU, TBD
• #14 Miss St, TBD
• The Citadel, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-2 (1-2), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Missouri, TBD
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Chattanooga, TBD
• #3 Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 2-3 (1-1), 2nd in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
• Tennessee, TBD
• Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
• FIU, 2:00 PM ET
• FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-0 (3-0), 1st in SEC – East

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• MTSU, TBD
• Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• S Carolina, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD
• Memphis, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-2 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD

Last year my wife and I brought our firstborn home from the hospital the day Tennessee played Georgia, the best of all ways to not be thinking about the game. “Did we really fumble it right back to them? Hey, he peed on the floor!” But from there, I’d imagine your October and November with the Vols were a little like mine no matter what ages you had at home: outcomes a little blurry, details inconsequential, lots of losing and little hope.

Yesterday friends and family gathered round to celebrate our son’s first birthday in the morning, then watch the Georgia game at 3:30. It seemed like another well-timed teacher of perspective. And we were all, spoken or unspoken, afraid of the same thing happening to the Vols again. Not the result, which seemed automatic with Tennessee at +32.5. But the outcome: a we’re-so-bad-none-of-this-matters hopelessness.

Tennessee made it matter. Right now, that’s a win.

It wasn’t simply in beating Vegas or playing better than last year against this particular opponent. The 2017 version featured not only a shutout but, far worse, 2.73 yards per play from the Vol offense. This time around Tennessee averaged 4.54. Not great, but it had a pulse. As has been the case since the West Virginia game, this is a theme for 2018: far from excellent, but capable of competence (when not turning it over six times).

Heart failure was a major concern coming in: new coach not used to losing, brutal loss to your most relevant rival last week, players sent to the locker room, uh oh. We’ve been staring down the oncoming train of this particular gauntlet for a long time. If what happened last year happened again this year, we wouldn’t have liked it but we might’ve understood it. And, as was the case when the calendar turned to October last year, the rest of the season would have been about next season.

But Tennessee showed heart on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense. They got little help from an offense that ran only 42 plays before Jeremy Banks fumbled with less than four minutes to go. The Vols seem committed to running the football, even if they’re not running it particularly well: Jarrett Guarantano remains fourth among SEC quarterbacks in yards per attempt (8.6), but the Vols are still last in the league in attempts (21.2 per game). Tennessee runs it almost literally twice as much as they throw it (211-106).

And this answer, like many things with this team, may simply come back to what they believe about the offensive line. Guarantano stayed relatively clean on Saturday – another big win – but you still feel nervous every time we don’t run. The gameplan for a while felt like Lane Kiffin’s against Urban Meyer when the Vols were 30-point underdogs on the road in 2009, with a quarterback we thought was fragile behind patchwork offensive line. Tennessee leaned on its defense, which worked to prevent big plays, and took few chances on the offensive end. Keep it close, and keep everyone – players, fans, etc. – invested.

It worked, eventually, in 2009. And it seemed to work this week too.

And it’s really selling our defense short to say they just worked to prevent big plays. In the run game, if you take out Isaac Nauta’s 31-yard gift with our defense in pass coverage, Georgia averaged 4.4 yards per carry. The only defenses to hold them to less than that the last two years: Notre Dame, Auburn (the first time), and Alabama. It’s a full day even trying to slow down Georgia’s run game. The Vol defense put in a full day’s work.

Speaking of heart, you’ll probably see what you want to see out of this:

“We’ve got fight in us.”

Jeremy Pruitt was asked what he learned about his team today. His response evoked emotion we haven’t seen from the head coach since he arrived at Tennessee. #Vols pic.twitter.com/JRvjIcKVAK

— Marc Whiteman (@MarcWhiteman) September 29, 2018

…but regardless of whatever way you lean on coach emotion, etc., the Vols had already proven Pruitt’s point before he got choked up. I’m not in the locker room to see it behind the scenes, but you saw it on the field yesterday.

So far, the Vols are better than they were last year. That part you can back up statistically, but we’re aiming for a higher bar than that. Given the opportunity to write themselves off, or be written off by the number two team in the country, Tennessee’s heart is instead still beating. Six wins still feels like an uphill climb, but the Vols still have their hands on the rope. Just as important, the Vols are still relatively healthy. Brandon Kennedy’s loss was obviously unhelpful, and one hopes Marquez Callaway can get out of concussion protocol by the Auburn game. But on the whole, Tennessee seems largely intact in mind, body, and quarterback.

Alabama, of course, is still to come; we all know what we’re getting into there. But the rest feels a little less known today. Auburn, despite their persistence in the Top 10, could drift slowly toward “trap game” territory in the next two weeks. Kentucky is in the Top 15 in both the polls and S&P+. I don’t know.

I don’t know about Tennessee either. But on a day when many were worried about us being put out of our misery on the last weekend of September, the Vols showed signs of life. It’s enough to get us through the bye week, and send us to Auburn with a spark. I don’t know if it’ll catch fire. But I’m eager to find out. Hope remains valuable around these parts. And while it may have gone to Athens to die, it came back to Knoxville alive.

Go Vols.