Gameday on Rocky Top

It’s been ten years since the Vols played at Auburn, one of the best arguments for policy change in SEC scheduling. We faced the Tigers every year from 1956-1991, the series becoming Tennessee’s second-biggest rivalry during that time. Now we have to wait a decade to travel to each other’s place.

The last trip in 2008 remains an infamous one: trailing 14-12, the Vols’ final four possessions began at the Auburn 38, Tennessee 42, Auburn 46, and Tennessee 46. A field goal would have won it. But the Clawfense went three-and-out four times, gaining 12 yards in those 12 plays, and Auburn survived.

Tony Franklin, Auburn’s first-year offensive coordinator, would not: he was fired two weeks later with Tommy Tuberville on the hot seat. Phillip Fulmer elected to stay with Dave Clawson. But both head coaches would be out by season’s end, Fulmer a decade removed from his national championship, Tuberville just four years from Auburn’s undefeated season.

Tennessee won the hiring battle: Lane Kiffin promised to sing Rocky Top after beating Florida to our delight, while Gene Chizik was heckled on the runway. But Auburn won the war: Chizik hired Gus Malzahn to run the offense and signed a junior college quarterback named Cam Newton. While Tennessee struggled in Derek Dooley’s first season, Auburn won the national championship. And two years later when both Chizik and Dooley were on their way out, Auburn got their guy in Malzahn, while the Vols swung and missed on Charlie Strong before settling for Butch Jones.

The total damage: since 2009, Auburn is 82-43 with a national championship, a second BCS title game appearance, two straight New Year’s Six bowls and three SEC West titles in the Age of Saban. Tennessee is a dead even 59-59 with no trips to Atlanta, and hasn’t played in anything more prestigious than the Outback Bowl.

Malzahn is a fascinating case study, setting an impossibly high bar in 2010 and 2013. After that Auburn went 8-5, 7-6, 8-5, 10-2 before losing to Georgia and Central Florida in postseason last year, and now 4-2 off a preseason #9 ranking. Auburn’s defense has been remarkable so far this year, but Malzahn’s offense has been the opposite.

The Tigers are 91st in yards per play (5.38), besting only Arkansas in the SEC. The Vols, for reference, are 71st at 5.68. Tennessee has faced a pair of Top 20 yards-per-play-allowed defenses, Auburn three in the Top 25. (Stats via Sports Source Analytics)

But Auburn has lacked explosiveness against its entire schedule: just eight plays of 30+ yards in six games, 104th nationally and better than only seven teams who have played six games. And Auburn has only one run of 30+ yards so far this year.

The Tigers beat Washington in large part thanks to a 9-of-18 performance on third down. But since then, Auburn is a woeful 18-of-65 (27.7%). And as good as Auburn’s defense is in the red zone, the offense once again does the opposite: six of their 28 trips have ended with no points, and only 15 have reached the end zone. A red zone touchdown percentage of 53.57% is 107th nationally.

And so a decade after their last meeting on The Plains, when two storied programs made similar choices for similar reasons, the Vols and Tigers will meet tomorrow with frustration in the air once more. Jeremy Pruitt is Tennessee’s fourth attempt at a post-Fulmer answer in what is now Fulmer’s world once more. Gus Malzahn has really been the only answer for the Tigers in this decade, but his signature unit is struggling like never before. It would be fitting, perhaps, if Tennessee could reverse their own fortunes at Auburn’s expense. To do so, it’ll probably take something just as ugly as what we saw ten years ago…but that result would look mighty good on Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols right about now.

The official NCAA stats for both the Vols and the Tigers confirms that points are likely going to be at a premium this Saturday. Look for Tennessee to lean on the run game, Auburn’s defense to wreak havoc in the form of way too many tackles for loss, and hidden yards, field position, and turnovers to play a major role in the outcome.

Auburn’s Offense

Auburn’s offense appears to be doing well at not air-mailing the ball to the other team. Other than that, though, they’re struggling. Their passing offense is only 96th, and their running offense is only 78th, and they’re particularly bad in the red zone and on third and fourth down.

Tennessee’s Defense (after Georgia)

In contrast, Tennessee’s defense appears to be doing better than expected, and they are particularly good on third down. Then again, they’re bad in the red zone, but perhaps that and Auburn’s ineptitude in the same location washes out. Tennessee’s also not so good at intercepting passes so far this season, and with Auburn protecting against that so well, any gift through the air will be a surprise.

Opportunity: On balance, Tennessee should have an actual advantage over Auburn when the Tigers’ offense is on the field. They’ll need to make the most of it, because things are going to be much more difficult on the other side of the ball.

Auburn’s Defense

The Tigers’ defense is another story. They simply do not allow opponents to put many points on the board. They, too, are especially good on third down, they are ballhawks in the passing game, and although they are only average in actually getting sacks, they do create havoc in their opponents’ backfield in the form of tackles for loss.

Tennessee’s Offense (after Georgia)

The bad news for the Vols offense is that they’re not especially good at putting points on the board or at converting third downs. They are good at protecting against interceptions, though, so perhaps that balances out against the War Eagle Ball Hawks.

Trouble: Auburn’s defense is 15th in the nation in tackles for loss and Tennessee’s offense is 112th in TFLs allowed.

Opportunity: The Vols’ rushing offense isn’t yet awesome by any means, but it is somewhat capable, and if there’s a weakness in Auburn’s defense, it’s against the run.

Auburn’s Special Teams

Tennessee’s Special Teams (after Georgia)

Trouble: Auburn appears better positioned to win in the “hidden yards” category, as they have a good matchup when returning kicks and their punting numbers are better.

Auburn’s Turnovers and Penalties

Tennessee’s Turnovers and Penalties (after Georgia)

Threat: Tennessee’s turnover numbers are terrible, and Auburn’s are good, but we all know about the ongoing debate about how much of this is luck and how much is making your own luck, right?

Opportunity: Tennessee appears to be the more disciplined team in terms of not giving away yards in the form of penalties so far this season.

Overall

• Tennessee’s defense should have an actual advantage over Auburn’s offense.
• Tennessee’s best bet on offense against an intimidating Auburn defense appears to be in the run game. The biggest threat on offense is allowing too many tackles for loss.
• Auburn appears to be better positioned to win the hidden-yards-on-special-teams game.
• The Vols could make up some ground by committing fewer penalties than Auburn, but it could also be undone by losing the turnover battle.

The Auburn Tigers kicked off the 2018 season with a solid win against No. 6 Washington, but after that, results have been mixed. They lost by one point to a ranked LSU team and lost by two touchdowns last week to an unranked Mississippi State team.

Meanwhile, unranked Tennessee is still trying to find a big win but is coming off a bye week. The two teams may be headed in two different directions, but Auburn still appears to be much closer to the goal than the Vols.

So let’s get to this week’s statsy preview. First, the predictions, and below them, the details.

Predictions

SPM: Auburn 26, Tennessee 13

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Auburn 28, Tennessee 17

Tennessee rushing yards: 120

Auburn rushing yards: 150

Tennessee passing yards: 150

Auburn passing yards: 180

Tennessee points: 17

Auburn points: 28

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 177.2 rushing yards per game, while Auburn is giving up 135.5 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Auburn, is Florida, which is giving up 172.5 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 156 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Auburn is West Virginia, which is allowing 120.8. Tennessee got 129 on the ground against West Virginia.

Looking at things from Auburn’s perspective, their run defense generally holds their opponents to significantly below their average.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Auburn is 120.

Auburn rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 158.0 rushing yards per game, while the Auburn run game is averaging 163.8 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is getting 162.2 yards per game on the ground, and they got 118 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 181.5 rushing yards per game and got 201 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Auburn will get about 150 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 182.8 passing yards per game, and Auburn is allowing 188.0. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is giving up 189.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 167 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 170.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 143 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up 150 passing yards this weekend.

Auburn passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 182.6 passing yards per game. Auburn is getting 200.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 198.8 yards per game through the air, and they got 186 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 240.0 passing yards per game and got 190 against Tennessee. I’m going with Auburn putting up about 180 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 26.0 points per game, and Auburn is allowing 14.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is allowing 14.8 points per game, and Tennessee got 21 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 13.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 12 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 17 points against Auburn.

Auburn scoring

Tennessee is allowing 25.6 points per game. Auburn is averaging 28.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is averaging 16.5 points, and they got 0 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 34.0 points and got 47 against Tennessee. I’m going with Auburn putting up somewhere around 28 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

Left alone, the SPM says Auburn 26, Tennessee 13, a spread of -13.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with Auburn 28, Tennessee 17, a spread of -11.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 21% chance of winning and the spread at -13.9.

The Vegas spread favors Auburn by between 15 and 16.5 (down from earlier this week when it was between 16.5 and 17), with an over/under of 47-47.5, which converts to something like Auburn 31, Tennessee 16.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols only a 13.5% chance of winning.

 

 

So the ingredients are there, right? Sleepy 11:00 am local kickoff, preseason Top 10 team sitting at a disappointing 4-2, offense looking sluggish…plus the underdog Vols coming off a bye, new head coach with plenty of experience against this particular opponent looking for his first big win.

We can talk ourselves into just about anything, of course. The quickest way to talk yourself back towards reality this weekend is the Auburn defense.

The Tigers have the best defense in the country in S&P+. Not great news for your upset dreams. Five past and future Tennessee opponents are currently in the Top 20 in S&P+ defense, including Kentucky (3rd!), Florida (11th), Alabama (18th), and Georgia (19th).

The Vols had limited success against Florida (when not turning it over) and Georgia, both of which have significantly better offenses than the Tigers at the moment. Auburn is 93rd in offensive S&P+, which might conjure hope of the Vols squeaking out a 13-10 upset. We’ll see if Tennessee’s defense can hold up if Auburn simply decides to run right at them all day. But on the other side of the ball, the Vols will need to be smart, clean, and hope for a big play or two to find enough points to be in the conversation.

The Tigers allow 4.68 yards per play, 18th nationally. It’s even more impressive considering they’ve faced three Top 25 teams in the first six weeks. And they’re 15th in turnovers forced, though four of their 12 came against Alabama State. But where Auburn’s defense really shines is the red zone.

Opposing teams have made 18 trips to the red zone against the Auburn defense. They’ve scored five touchdowns. Their touchdowns allowed percentage (27.78%) is not only the best in the nation, only four teams are allowing under 40%. Washington got inside the 20 six times and found the end zone once. LSU went three times and scored a single touchdown. Mississippi State: four times, one touchdown. That’s incredible.

This isn’t something Tennessee’s offense is particularly great at either, with 11 touchdowns in 18 red zone attempts (61.11%, 80th nationally). The Vols went 2-for-5 scoring red zone touchdowns against UTEP, 2-for-4 against the Gators, and didn’t take a single red zone snap against Georgia.

There’s some good news there, potentially, for the Vol offense: they’ve had success with explosive plays so far this year, with five passes of 50+ yards still good for seventh nationally after the bye week. It’s how the Vols found the end zone twice against Georgia, and should have before fumbling through the end zone against Florida. Auburn’s defense isn’t noteworthy in stopping explosive plays: the Tigers are 86th nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed, 85th in 20+ yard passing plays allowed. With Tennessee’s offense struggling in short yardage situations and Auburn’s defense so good in the red zone, big plays may be the best answer for the Vols on the plains.

Tuesday, Thursday, Friday

Once again, there’s not a lot of good options prior to Gameday this week.

Gameday

 

This Saturday at noon on the SEC Network, the Vols take on the Auburn Tigers, who are suddenly looking vulnerable. This may not be the point at which these two particular ships pass in the night, but the distance between them appears to be growing smaller. There’s also an opportunity to get more data on Vanderbilt in this time slot, as the Commodores take on Florida. Do we hate Florida? Yes, we hate Florida.

The best game to watch in the 3:30 slot is No. 2 Georgia traveling to No. 13 LSU, but there’s also another Top 25 matchup between No. 7 Washington and No. 17 Oregon.

There are several channel-hop options in the evening slot, with next/future opponents Alabama and Missouri prior and opponent West Virginia both in action. There’s also a Top 25 matchup between No. 15 Wisconsin and No. 12 Michigan taking place in that time slot.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

The Vols were off this past weekend, but their past and future opponents were not, so let’s take a look at how those results might have impacted our expectations for the back half of the season for Tennessee.

My new expected win total:

• This week: 5.0
• Last week: 4.9
• After Week 4: 4.55
• After Week 3: 5.5

I have Alabama steady at 5%, Auburn down to 30%, Kentucky down to 30%, South Carolina and Missouri steady at 40%, Vanderbilt steady at 60%, and Charlotte steady at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• #21 Auburn, 12:00 PM SECN
• #1 Alabama, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Charlotte, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 5-0 (3-0), 1st in Big 12, #6

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Beat Kansas, 38-22
• Iowa State, TBD
• Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
• Texas, TBD
• #17 TCU, TBD
• #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
• #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 5-1 (3-0)

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
• The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
• Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
• W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-6 (0-2), 6th in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• Lost North Texas, 27-24
• LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Rice, 3:30 PM ET
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in SEC – East, #14

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Missouri, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-0 (4-0), 1st in SEC – East, #2

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
• #6 LSU, TBD
• Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Kentucky, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• UMass, TBD
• Georgia Tech, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-2 (1-2), 4th in SEC – West, #21

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• Lost to Miss St, 23-9
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Texas A&M, TBD
• Georgia, TBD
• Liberty, TBD
• Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Beat Arkansas, 65-31
• Missouri, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• LSU, TBD
• Miss St, TBD
• The Citadel, TBD
• Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-2 (2-2), 4th in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Beat Missouri, 37-35
• Texas A&M, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Chattanooga, TBD
• Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 2-3 (1-1), 2nd in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
• Tennessee, TBD
• Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
• FIU, 2:00 PM ET
• FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in SEC – East, #18

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Georgia, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• MTSU, TBD
• Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-2 (0-2), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
• Alabama, TBD
• Memphis, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-3 (0-2), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• Lost to Georgia, 41-13
• Florida, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD