Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: Alabama edition

I’ve been moving the past couple of weeks, and in addition to having all of our stuff spread out over two locations a half hour apart and the thing you need always being in the other place, working without my regular space or equipment has been very discomforting. I did get to watch the Auburn game in a tailgate chair in my basement surrounded by boxes last Saturday, but I hated being mostly unplugged for the after-party.

What I’m saying is that there’s a reason for the recent lack of podcasts and the failure to announce the winners of last week’s Pick ‘Em and Guessing Game. Like the Vols, I’m making progress toward the goal, but I still have a ways to go. The Pick ‘Em and Guessing Game results for last week will be coming later, but I wanted to go ahead and get this week’s questions out there.

As always, you can find out everything you need to know here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

On Leaving Fingerprints in the Museum

This one feels a bit like the Tennessee-Kentucky basketball rivalry through the mid-90’s. The Cats, fueled by Antoine Walker, Ron Mercer, and Nazr Mohammed among others, won the NCAA Tournament in 1996, lost in the title game in 1997, and won it again in 1998. During a stretch of 11 straight wins over Tennessee, Kentucky won in Thompson-Boling by 20 in 1995, then by 40 in 1996. You’d show up to these games with that 1% hope, then watch a dunk contest unfold for as long as you could stand it, consoling yourself that at least you could say you watched a championship team and, in Walker’s case, a three-time NBA All-Star.

The last time Alabama was in Knoxville, it wasn’t just the final margin (49-10). The Vols, still ranked ninth and in every championship chase after a double overtime loss at Texas A&M, were scattered, smothered, and covered by Alabama’s defense under Jeremy Pruitt: 2.59 yards per play for Dobbs, Hurd, Kamara, etc. Much has changed since then, for the Vols and Pruitt. Last year in Tuscaloosa was even worse – 2.35 yards per play – but that was to be expected given the state of the Vols this time a year ago.

I don’t think anyone expects the outcome to change this year. But is this going to turn into a dunk contest again, where we say, “Oh well, at least we can say we saw Tua play in Neyland”? Or can the Vols show signs of life?

There are a handful of things that would be tangible progress against this bunch:

  • Alabama doesn’t score a touchdown on its opening drive
  • Tua throws an interception
  • Tua throws a pass in the fourth quarter
  • Alabama scores 38 points or less

But beyond that, I think a good goal for Tennessee – aside from keeping Jarrett Guarantano alive – is to leave this game still feeling good about its chances the rest of the way home. That happened four years ago against Alabama in Knoxville, when the Tide raced to a 27-0 lead before Josh Dobbs started writing his legend in an eventual 34-20 Alabama win. This one should be less about individual ascension and more about the entire team continuing to pull in the same direction.

And against this bunch, we’d better pull real hard.

This could end up in the conversation for the best team Tennessee has ever faced. The Tide are currently playing in the 99.4 percentile in S&P+. The aforementioned 2016 Tide finished the year at 99.8%; 2012 Alabama at 99.3%. The Vols faced both LSU (99.3%) and Alabama (99.1%) in 2011. Tim Tebow’s 2008 Gators were at 99.5%; Danny Wuerffel’s 1996 Gators were at 99.2%.

Two years ago at Rocky Top Talk, we ranked the best teams Tennessee has beaten in S&P+. 2001 Florida topped that list at 98.9%. All this to say, this Bama team is operating at a rare level…and this Tennessee team is trying to make its way into their atmosphere, but just getting off the ground. The history major in me is curious to see the Tide.

Tua might also be the fourth Heisman winner the Vols have faced in the last five years. We saw Baker Mayfield two years before he won it and Marcus Mariota the year before. The Vols last faced a Heisman winner in the same season with Derrick Henry in 2015. Much the same with Mark Ingram in 2009, they almost pulled the upset. The last Heisman winner Tennessee beat: Eddie George in 1995. Chris Weinke was famously inactive when the Vols beat Florida State to win the BCS title.

But on the list of the best quarterbacks Tennessee has ever faced – Mariota, Tebow, Wuerffel, plus future NFL standouts like McNabb – what Tua is doing right now stands out. Averaging 14.3 yards per attempt is just stupid. So is a 21-0 TD-INT ratio. Stop it. This is high school stuff. It’s up to the Vols to not look like a high school team out there.

Back in Thompson-Boling in the 90’s, Kentucky came back to Knoxville in 1997, and the Vols were game. Tennessee lost by just ten. We left that game feeling hopeful, and though it took another season to get there, the Vols swept Kentucky in 1999 and took a major step forward under Jerry Green. Sometimes progress looks like a 10-point loss. I don’t know exactly what number would represent progress tomorrow, but I do believe it’s available beyond just the outcome. Stay healthy and stay alive, of course. But after two years of throwing completely ineffective punches against Alabama, perhaps Jeremy Pruitt’s Vols can land one or two in there, and leave their own mark on this game.

We might get to see something historic in this Alabama team and its quarterback. Will we also see progress from Tennessee?

Locks & Keys Week 8: Vols vs. Alabama, Hold Your Breath and Hope

 

When I was younger, there were no games I looked forward to more than Alabama. Your really could throw out the records, and the streaks were even fun because you knew it could go either way any year.

Nick Saban has sucked the joy out of that. Well, him and Derek Dooley. And Butch Jones. And Mike Hamilton. And Dave Hart. And all the failures.

Now, after a fun week — (man, it was fun, wasn’t it?? Maybe it was more fun for me because of all the bragging rights over my Auburn buddies) — it’s time to go out and probably endure the biggest gut-shot of the season. It’s the week that Alabama fans invade Neyland Stadium, the best FBS team of the modern era probably has its way with our Vols and we have to sit there, take it, and then listen to those buffoons sing “Rammer Jammer” afterward.

Makes me sick just thinking of it.

But here’s the deal: Coach Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols simply cannot let this game erase the momentum from the valiant Georgia showing and the resounding road upset at Auburn. The Crimson Tide is a different animal that has been destroying everything in its path. The Vols have to try to cover the four-touchdown spread, do some things they can build on and, most importantly, not get anybody hurt.

It sucks that those are the goals, but just being realistic, they are.

Could the Vols win this game? Absolutely, they could. Crazy things happen. They did in 1982. They did in 1990. There are many other examples.

Is it likely? Nah. If you think so, you’re drinking orange Kool-Aid and aren’t being very realistic about where these two programs are right now. Alabama under Saban is the most well-built, well-rounded, talented programs in college football history. This dynasty is even greater than Bear Bryant’s at Alabama. Until Saban leaves, it’s probably not changing.

Tennessee went 4-8 last year, don’t you remember? Don’t let last week fool you — this team is still a long ways away. But, also, don’t let this week fool you, either. We’re not going to be as far away as Alabama makes us look.

The Vols have to stay on schedule. They have to keep Jarrett Guarantano upright, get Jonathan Kongbo’s replacements (like DeAndre Johnson and Jordan Allen) some valuable repetitions and not lose anybody else of any value. Games against South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt are going to determine the postseason. Tennessee needs a split to get one.

They can’t lose those games this week. That is very important. Tennessee needs to fight, it doesn’t need to give up, and it needs to find some building blocks. But the most important thing is don’t lose more than once against Alabama, and don’t lose what you’ve built. There is a lot of season left to be played.

Now, if there was a chance, let’s take a look at what must happen.

KEYS

Protect JG

If the Vols are going to shock the college football world and upset Alabama, they have to do that by keeping Jarrett Guarantano’s jersey clean. This offensive line did some positive things a week ago against Auburn, and you’re going to be hard-pressed to find a signal-caller tougher than JG.

But Alabama is going to have a bunch of manimals coming after him, blitzing, breathing down his neck, trying to crush his soul and his will. It is vitally important Tennessee’s offensive front plays with more pride than it has so far this season and that Tyson Helton finds some ways to help his quarterback get the ball out quickly.

UT needs to run some play-action to keep the Tide honest and keep the pressure off. The Vols need to hit them with some draws up the middle, and that means they need to win some one-on-one battles in the trenches. If those things happen, UT could put up some points against an Alabama defense that is very good but nothing like it has been in recent years.

Biguns

While Helton needs to dial up some quick strikes to help JG get the ball out of his hands, he also needs some time to get the ball downfield.

Tennessee won the game against Auburn last week because Guarantano threw the ball up and let Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway and Josh Palmer beat the AU cornerbacks on 50-50 balls. Alabama’s DBs are better than its counterparts on the Plains, but again, this secondary isn’t as dominant as it has been.

Do the Vols have an advantage with their wide receivers? That’s still debatable because of all the talent Saban has recruited, but Tennessee has talent, too. JG has to take some shots downfield, and the Vols have to take advantage of man coverage and win those battles with some big gains. Then, they’ve got to convert those big plays into touchdowns.

Coming of age

Last week was a breakout party for freshman cornerback Bryce Thompson, who had a huge interception and a pass deflection in the end zone against Auburn that may have been the game’s two biggest plays.

He’s really emerging into a young star before our eyes. And his fellow first-year defensive back Alontae Taylor has enjoyed flashes of brilliance, too.

Though Baylen Buchanan isn’t the kind of defensive back you want in man coverage, he’s doing better playing the nickelback position.

They’re all going to be tested this week like they never have before. UA quarterback Tua Tagovailoa isn’t a guarantee to play, but he probably will. If he does, the Vols must face the Heisman Trophy frontrunner who throws one of the prettiest deep balls of any collegiate quarterback in recent memory. Alabama has nearly patented the first-drive long scoring pass with guys like Jerry Jeudy routinely on the other end.

The Tide are going to go long, and they are going to convert more often than not.

Take this into consideration: There hasn’t been a single game this year where Alabama failed to score a touchdown on its opening drive.

This will be the best wide receiving corps the Vols’ young secondary faces all year, and they’ve got to minimize the huge gainers and make their share of plays. UT has a lot of talent and even more inexperience in the secondary. They need their share of wins this week. This is where the game will be won or lost.

Uncle mo

We say it a lot, but we mean it a lot, too: Tennessee will have a rowdy crowd at Neyland on Saturday, and the Vols must keep them in it. If not, Alabama’s fans (they’ll travel plenty, too) will take over and so will its team.

The last time UT was at home, Florida gutted the crowd early and kept pushing. We never had a chance to stay in the game as the Vols killed themselves. If that happens against UA, the Vols will lose by 70.

Uh, that’s not an exaggeration.

Tennessee needs some big early plays to get the players believing, get the fans believing and stay in it till late. That’s a huge ask, but it needs to happen if UT has any chance.

Mistake-free

Last week, Tennessee not only made big defensive plays, it played spotless, mistake-free football. Penalties were minimal, and there were zero turnovers.

Giving up the ball and extra possessions against Alabama lead to bunches of Tide points. This is the best Bama offense of the Saban era, and you must keep it off the field. I want to see Tennessee aggressive, and when you play like that against great teams, you can get burned. That doesn’t mean it should change anything about the approach. Guarantano needs to throw the ball around and whatever happens, happens.

But if what happens are interceptions, the Vols are in trouble. They’ve got to make big plays and keep UA from making big plays. They have to make their own breaks and can’t give ‘Bama anything.

They do not need help.

***

All that said, I have a hard time believing the Vols win or even cover the spread. There is just too much talent on Alabama’s side of the ball, and UT doesn’t have the horses to hang.

My fear is the Vols get banged-up and it keeps them from beating South Carolina the next week in a very winnable game. They’ve got to play aggressive, but they’ve got to be smart and get a little lucky, too.

You’re not going to like the prediction, but given my record ATS this year, it should make you feel better about the game.

Prediction:  Alabama 48, Tennessee 17

LOCKS

Well, we took a vacation last week. It certainly wasn’t because of all the money we’ve been making betting on college football, that’s for sure. So far this season, it’s been one step forward, two steps back.

Last week, we were off, but the week before, it was more like 10 steps back. We went 1-6 which takes us to 20-22 so far this season. That’s embarrassing. As a matter of fact, it’s the worst I’ve ever been in this column. That is going to change. I’m not going to predict undefeated this week because every time I do that, I suck.

But it’s gonna be a winning record, guaranteed. We’re going to get back to .500 this week and vow to improve afterward. It’s time, as Lane Kiffin would say.

  1. Illinois vs. Wisconsin under 55: What in the world happened to the Badgers this year? They’re not anywhere near as good as I thought they’d be, and they’ll take out some aggression this week against a bad Illini team. But Illinois can’t score enough for this over to hit.
  2. Arkansas -5.5 over Tulsa: I don’t see the Hogs losing to Colorado State, North Texas AND Tulsa in the same season. I see Chad Morris’ team improving each week, and this is my favorite pick of the week.
  3. California -6.5 over Oregon State: Oh man, the Beavers are bad. Yes, Justin Wilcox’s team is reeling, but it isn’t far removed from playing decent football. This line is far too low even if it is in Corvallis.
  4. Oregon +1.5 over Washington State: I love the Ducks. They’ve been good to me this year, and they’re a well-coached, disciplined team that can win games many different ways. I like them to cover this way-too-low line against the Fighting Leaches.
  5. North Texas -0.5 over UAB: The Mean Green have come back down to earth a little, but I still love Mason Fine and they look back on track after a 30-7 win over Southern Miss. They’ll cover this scant line easily in a defensive battle. Fine will make enough plays.
  6. Purdue +14 over Ohio State: This was my Bleacher Report upset of the week. Not only do I think the Boilermakers are going to win, I’m going to follow up this bet by laying on the money line as well. I’m a Brohm believer, baby! I also think it’s a matter of time before the Buckeyes have their midseason “WTH” game.
  7. Western Michigan -4.5 over Central Michigan: This has trap game written all over it, and the line is just dangling out there as too good to be true. Still, I’m falling for it. I think the Chippewas are awful and the Broncos aren’t. This is a solid cover.

Tennessee-Alabama statsy preview: Georgia, Take 2?

After delving into the stats and comps this week, we emerge with what appears to be another put a phonebook in your pants game for the Vols this week against Alabama. But hey, if it’s looking like the Georgia game of a few weeks ago, perhaps just a little more improvement and a friendly home crowd will make it interesting even longer this time around.

Here are the predictions, stats, comps, and reasoning.

Predictions

SPM: Alabama 41, Tennessee 18

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Alabama 45, Tennessee 17

Tennessee rushing yards: 80

Alabama rushing yards: 230

Tennessee passing yards: 220

Alabama passing yards: 330

Tennessee points: 17

Alabama points: 45

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 159.0 rushing yards per game, while Alabama is giving up 125.1 per game. The Vols have played no one better, but Auburn, which is giving up 125.9 yards per game on the ground, is pretty much the same. Tennessee got 68 against them. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Alabama is 80.

Alabama rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 152.7 rushing yards per game, while the Alabama run game is averaging 216.7 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 197.3 yards per game on the ground, and they got 201 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 226.3 rushing yards per game and got 251 against Tennessee. I’m guessing Alabama will get about 230 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 207.0 passing yards per game, and Alabama is allowing 189.9. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is giving up 208.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 328 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP. They’re allowing 189.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 167 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up 220 passing yards this weekend.

Alabama passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 205.8 passing yards per game. Alabama is getting 350.3. Tennessee’s played no one better. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is getting 320.5 yards per game through the air, and they got 429 against Tennessee. I’m going with Alabama putting up about 330 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 26.7 points per game, and Alabama is allowing 15.1. The Vols have played no one better. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is allowing 16.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 12 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 17 points against Alabama.

Alabama scoring

Tennessee is allowing 25.3 points per game. Alabama is averaging 53.6. Nobody’s better. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 39.0 points, and they got 38 against Tennessee. I’m going with Alabama putting up about 45 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

Left alone, the SPM says Alabama 41, Tennessee 18, a spread of -23.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with Alabama 45, Tennessee 17, a spread of -28.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has an 8% chance of winning and puts the score at Alabama 44.8, Tennessee 20.5, a spread of 24.3.

The Vegas spread favors Alabama by between 28.5 and 29, with an over/under of 56.5-57, which converts to something like Alabama 42, Tennessee 14.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols only a 5.7% chance of winning.

 

2018 college football TV schedule for Vols fans: Week 8

Gameday

Saturday, October 13, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
No. 6 Michigan No. 24 Michigan State 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 1 Alabama Tennessee 3:30 PM CBS Live Go Vols!
No. 16 NC State No. 3 Clemson 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN DVR Top 25 Matchup
EVENING SLATE
No. 22 Mississippi State No. 5 LSU 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
No. 12 Oregon No. 25 Washington State 7:30 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
Vanderbilt No. 14 Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Future opponents

 

The noon slot this Saturday offers an appetizer for Vols fans in the form of a Top 25 matchup between No. 6 Michigan and No. 24 Michigan State on Fox.

Tennessee then hosts No. 1 Alabama at 3:30 on CBS. If you’re interested in checking in, channel-hopping, or score-/moment-watching, No. 16 NC State is also taking on No. 3 Clemson at the same time on ESPN.

There are several good games in the evening slot, including one between Top 25 SEC West teams, another between Top 25 Pac12 teams, and the most important one to Tennessee fans — a matchup between future Vols opponents No. 14 Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
Thu Oct 18 Georgia State Arkansas State 7:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Thu Oct 18 Stanford Arizona State 9:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Oct 19 Colorado State Boise State 9:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Fri Oct 19 Air Force UNLV 10:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 20 No. 6 Michigan No. 24 Michigan State 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Oct 20 Illinois No. 23 Wisconsin 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Oct 20 Maryland No. 19 Iowa 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 No. 20 Cincinnati Temple 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 No. 9 Oklahoma TCU 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 Auburn Ole Miss 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 Buffalo Toledo 12:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 20 Miami (OH) Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 20 Northwestern Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Oct 20 Tulsa Arkansas 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 North Carolina Syracuse 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 Virginia Duke 12:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 Bowling Green Ohio 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 20 Idaho State Liberty 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 20 Florida Atlantic Marshall 2:30 PM
Sat Oct 20 Utah State Wyoming 2:30 PM
Sat Oct 20 Charlotte Middle Tennessee 3:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 20 Eastern Michigan Ball State 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 20 Western Michigan Central Michigan 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 20 No. 1 Alabama Tennessee 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Oct 20 No. 16 NC State No. 3 Clemson 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 Colorado No. 15 Washington 3:30 PM FOX
Sat Oct 20 No. 18 Penn State Indiana 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 Akron Kent State 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 20 Coastal Carolina UMass 3:30 PM
Sat Oct 20 Houston Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 20 Kansas Texas Tech 3:30 PM FS1
Sat Oct 20 Louisiana Appalachian State 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 20 Minnesota Nebraska 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Oct 20 SMU Tulane 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 UTEP Louisiana Tech 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 20 Wake Forest Florida State 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 California Oregon State 4:00 PM PAC12
Sat Oct 20 Georgia Southern New Mexico State 4:00 PM
Sat Oct 20 Memphis Missouri 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 No. 22 Mississippi State No. 5 LSU 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 No. 10 UCF East Carolina 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 UConn No. 21 South Florida 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 20 Texas State UL Monroe 7:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Oct 20 UTSA Southern Mississippi 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 20 No. 12 Oregon No. 25 Washington State 7:30 PM FOX
Sat Oct 20 No. 2 Ohio State Purdue 7:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 Vanderbilt No. 14 Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 Fresno State New Mexico 7:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 North Texas UAB 7:30 PM
Sat Oct 20 Old Dominion Western Kentucky 7:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 20 Rice Florida Intl 7:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Oct 20 USC Utah 8:00 PM PAC12
Sat Oct 20 Arizona UCLA 10:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Oct 20 San Jose State San Diego State 10:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Oct 20 Nevada Hawai'i 11:59 PM

Tennessee Vols statistical rankings after Auburn

The Vols are in the middle of The Gauntlet, but so far, many of their national stat rankings are holding up pretty well.

Offense

When they pass, they are good at it, but the Vols aren’t really putting up a lot of passing yards. Some of that is likely due to a steadfast devotion to failing on first downs. I’m wondering how many of those tackles for loss allowed come on those first downs.

Defense

Not yet elite, but not bad, either.

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

 

Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Auburn

A big win for the Vols this weekend not only made you feel better about the team for a moment but also has an impact on what to expect going forward and when to expect it.

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 6.3
  • Last week: 5.0
  • After Week 5: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

I have Alabama at 15% (down from 5%), Kentucky down to 45% from 30%, South Carolina and Missouri down to 50% from 40%, Vanderbilt down to 75% from 60%, and Charlotte steady at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East

  • Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
  • Beat ETSU, 59-3
  • Beat UTEP, 24-0
  • Lost to Florida, 47-21
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
  • Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
  • #1 Alabama, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Charlotte, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in Big 12, #13

  • Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
  • Beat YSU, 52-17
  • NC State, Canceled
  • Beat Kansas St, 35-6
  • Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
  • Beat Kansas, 38-22
  • Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
  • Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
  • Texas, TBD
  • #17 TCU, TBD
  • #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
  • #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 6-1 (4-0)

  • Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
  • Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
  • Beat VMI, 27-24
  • Beat Furman, 29-27
  • Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
  • Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
  • Beat The Citadel, 26-23
  • Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-6 (0-2), 6th in C-USA – West

  • Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
  • Lost to UNLV, 52-24
  • Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
  • Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
  • Lost to UTSA, 30-21
  • Lost North Texas, 27-24
  • Bye
  • LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Rice, 3:30 PM ET
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #11

  • Beat Charleston So, 53-6
  • Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
  • Beat Colorado St, 48-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 47-21
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
  • Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
  • #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Missouri, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Idaho, TBD
  • Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #8

  • Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
  • Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
  • Beat MTSU, 49-7
  • Beat Missouri, 43-29
  • Beat Tennessee, 38-12
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
  • Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
  • Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • #9 Auburn, TBD
  • UMass, TBD
  • Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-3 (1-3), 6th in SEC – West

  • Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
  • Beat Alabama St, 63-9
  • Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
  • Beat Arkansas, 34-3
  • Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
  • Lost to Miss St, 23-9
  • Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Liberty, TBD
  • Alabama, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 7-0 (4-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

  • Beat Louisville*, 51-14
  • Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
  • Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
  • Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
  • Beat Louisiana, 56-14
  • Beat Arkansas, 65-31
  • Beat Missouri, 39-10
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • LSU, TBD
  • Miss St, TBD
  • The Citadel, TBD
  • Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Chattanooga, TBD
  • Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 3-3 (2-1), 2nd in C-USA – East

  • Beat Fordham, 34-10
  • Lost to App St, 45-9
  • Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
  • Lost to UMass, 49-31
  • Lost to UAB, 28-7
  • Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
  • MTSU, 3:00 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • FIU, 2:00 PM ET
  • FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 3rd in SEC – East, #14

  • Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
  • Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
  • Beat Murray State, 48-10
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
  • Beat S Carolina, 24-10
  • Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
  • Bye
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Georgia, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • MTSU, TBD
  • Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-3 (0-3), 6th in SEC – East

  • Beat UT Martin, 51-14
  • Beat Wyoming, 40-13
  • Beat Purdue, 40-37
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
  • Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
  • Lost to Alabama, 39-10
  • Memphis, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-4 (0-3), 6th in SEC – East

  • Beat MTSU, 35-7
  • Beat Nevada, 41-10
  • Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
  • Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
  • Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
  • Lost to Georgia, 41-13
  • Lost to Florida, 37-27
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Arkansas, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD

Sunday Stats: Biggest Upsets, First Down Runs, Third Down Conversions and more

A few more observations on this fine Sunday:

This was Tennessee’s biggest win as an underdog since Florida in 2001. Covers.com has the closing line from that night in The Swamp at +16.5. The line closed at +14.5 yesterday, just ahead of other classic upsets like 2003 Miami (+12.5) and 2004 Georgia (+13). The Vols were +7 against South Carolina in 2013. Obviously the Vols weren’t big underdogs in the 90’s, so other than Florida 2001 you have to go back to 1989 at UCLA (+15.5) to find a bigger upset win.

The Vols are 98th in yards per carry at 3.86 and the only SEC team under 4.00. One big run early did not heal the wounds of the first quarter: the Vols now have 52 carries for 116 yards in the opening stanza, with 2.23 yards per carry ranking 128th nationally. One thing the Vols are actually worse at than last year, so far: Tennessee gives up an average of eight tackles for loss per game, 120th nationally, up from 7.42 last season. (Stats via Sports Source Analytics)

Tennessee’s rushing production on first down isn’t as bad as you might think: 125 carries for 558 yards (4.46 per, 69th nationally). That average does drop to 3.84 yards per carry if you take away Ty Chandler’s 81 yard touchdown against UTEP.

Here’s a list of teams with fewer first down passing attempts than Tennessee (45): Coastal Carolina, Georgia Tech, Maryland, San Diego State, Navy, Air Force, Army, Georgia Southern. So yeah, your eyes aren’t deceiving you there. When the Vols have turned it loose on first down, they’ve typically gotten the desired result in catching the defense off-guard: 32-of-45 (71.1%, 12th nationally on first down), for 467 yards (10.4 ypa). Fifteen of those attempts have gone for 10+ yards, five of them for 25+. I’m not sure how much the Vols will seek to change this against Alabama, but it might be worth a look after that.

On third-and-short, the Vols still struggle to move the ball. When running on 3rd-&-1-to-3, Tennessee has 14 carries for 16 yards and only six first downs. 1.14 yards per carry is 127th nationally. Weirdly, the Vols are also 1-for-6 passing on third-and-short. So consider this:

  • 3rd-&-1-to-3:  20 plays, 7 first downs (35% conversion rate)
  • 3rd-&-4-to-6:  17 plays, 7 first downs (41.2%)
  • 3rd-&-7-to-9:  23 plays, 13 first downs (56.5%)
  • 3rd-&-10+:  23 plays, 5 first downs (21.7%)

That’s impressive and concerning at the same time. Open it up!

Speaking of which, here’s to Jarrett Guarantano: on 3rd-&-4-to-9, Guarantano is 19-of-24 (79.2%) for 248 yards (10.3 ypa) and 15 first downs. He’s also 16th nationally in overall yards per attempt (9.0).

At the midway point of the season, the Vols have 16 plays of 30+ yards. Last year they had 18 in the entire year.

We didn’t need it yesterday, and Auburn was the best red zone defense in the country coming into the game. But the Vols are now just 11-of-19 scoring touchdowns in the red zone this year; that’s 88th nationally. On the other side of the ball, Tennessee is one of just five teams nationally to surrender points on every red zone trip. Opponents are 17-for-17 against the Vols, with 11 touchdowns and six field goals. Plenty of room for improvement here.

The last time the Vols were +3 or better in turnovers against an FBS opponent: Kentucky last year, when the Vols were +4 and still lost. Some of the best wins of the Butch Jones era, as you might expect, came via huge turnover margins: 2016 Virginia Tech, 2016 Missouri, and 2015 Northwestern were all +4.

Quietly, Brent Cimaglia is 7-of-8 on field goals this year. The miss was the blocked kick yesterday. 87.5% is 14th nationally. The best percentage for Vol kickers this decade is Daniel Lincoln and Michael Palardy combining to go 15-of-18 (83.3%) in 2010.

It seemed like the Vols were penalized for a lot of little things yesterday, but Tennessee is still 20th nationally in penalty yards per game (42.5). The Vols have been relatively good at avoiding major 15-yard penalties this year. The flip side: Tennessee’s opponents average just 45.5 penalty yards per game, 107th nationally. The Vols aren’t giving or getting much help from the yellow flags.

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday Best: What Else Do You Need to See?

After a late-game collapse made a close Georgia loss a virtual runaway a couple of weeks ago, Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt nearly was moved to tears talking about how much better his guys were getting when talking in the postgame press conference.

Perhaps expecting a little more emotion from Pruitt, the SEC Network crew caught up with the first-year Vols front man after Saturday’s resounding 30-24 signature victory over Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

But instead of getting misty-eyed, Pruitt talked about how much better his players were getting. He then took the opportunity on regional television to complain a little about Tennessee’s inability to finish games, referring to the Tigers’ late touchdown that allowed them to kick a potentially worrisome onsides kick. Afterward, in his coach’s show with Bob Kesling, he mentioned every assistant coach by name and talked about the unselfishness of some of his players to play out-of-position because of depth issues.

All three responses were vintage Pruitt.

On a week where negativity could reign against UGA, Pruitt stood up for his guys. After the Vols could trumpet so much happiness following what obviously was a huge win, Pruitt kept things grounded.

The buttons he’s pushing are working. In today’s Sunday Best — a column designed to point out the positives from the prior day’s game — there are tons of things to discuss. But it all boils down to one thing: the Vols are responding to Pruitt’s teaching methods, and the confidence they’re finally getting in themselves is showing on the field. Saturday, for the first time in 12 tries against a league foe, it showed up in the win column.

Improvement is something we’ve not seen much of over the tenures of Butch Jones and Derek Dooley before him. But Saturday was a start. Now, it’s just a matter of whether the Vols can capitalize. They’ve flipped the script on the season’s possibilities — a bowl game no longer is out of the question — but can they finish?

Remember, Jones led Tennessee to a win over a ranked South Carolina team at Neyland Stadium coming off a bye week in his first year as a head coach. UT couldn’t parlay that into a postseason appearance, losing the season-ender to Vanderbilt.

Pruitt knows the margin for error for this team is razor thin, so the teaching moments are vital.

So are the responding moments, and we finally got one of those Saturday, trumping a reeling Auburn team. Tennessee got AU at the right time, and, guess what? The Vols took advantage of it, erasing a halftime deficit against a team that was favored by double-digits.

Now that we’ve discussed the overarching theme of Sunday’s Best, let’s be a little more specific about some of the stuff that went right.

1. Jarrett Guarantano and the Incredible Leaping Vols

It’s been a long, hard road for redshirt sophomore Guarantano, going from highly regarded recruit to an ugly first few games as a starting quarterback a season ago to getting mauled this year and continuing to stand strong in the pocket.

All the while, he’s learned, he’s developed and he’s improved.

Saturday, we saw the fruit in a 21-of-32 performance for 328 yards and two touchdowns. Equally as important, he didn’t have a turnover. As a sub-bullet to this bullet, he also led UT to 10-of-19 in third-down conversions, and he had multiple strategically-placed balls downfield to his dynamic receiving corps.

They made him look good by catching them, too.

Tennessee’s most talented players are its receivers, and they dominated Auburn’s secondary in the win. Josh Palmer had three catches for 84 yards, Jauan Jennings awoke from his season-long slumber to finish with five grabs for 71 yards, and Marquez Callaway had two grabs for 55 yards. After vowing to try to get running back Ty Chandler more touches, it happened Saturday, as he had five grabs for 62 yards, including a big 42-yard touchdown strike.

It was a banner day for Guarantano, who has taken a lot of flak from Vols fans. Yet here he is, improving, learning, developing. Saturday, he was dominating.

2. Extra! Extra!

Not only did the Vols play a spotless, turnover-free game, they also wound up with three takeaways of their own. They needed every single one of them, too.

Bryce Thompson and Jonathan Kongbo grabbed interceptions — though on Kongbo’s, UT offensive coordinator Tyson Helton struggled with his play-calling and the Vols were forced to punt three plays later. Needing that game-changing play, though, Tennessee’s defense got it.

Moments after taking a stunning 20-17 lead to momentarily quiet the Jordan-Hare Stadium crowd, Tennessee pressured Jarrett Stidham, who fumbled the ball. After a scrum deep in AU territory, the ball squirted free from underneath a Tigers player into the hands of Tennessee freshman cornerback Alontae Taylor who wound up with an 8-yard touchdown.

The massive turnover made it 27-17, and that gave the Vols some breathing room.

Prior to the pair of picks, Tennessee was 106th nationally with just two interceptions this season, and the opportunistic plays had been lacking. There are still defensive issues with missed tackles and blown coverages, but you can cover a lot of that up with momentum-shifting plays, and that’s what the Vols did against Auburn.

3. Second-Half Response

The 448 Auburn yards you see in the box score isn’t pretty; that’s still too much [usually] to win. But you’ve got to give the Vols credit for some big-time halftime adjustments by Pruitt, defensive coordinator Kevin Sherrer and Co.

Give the Vols credit for executing them, too.

The Tigers were shut out after the break until their final drive, which made things interesting as they quickly gashed Tennessee with some big passing plays. It was a disappointing finish to an incredible defensive performance after halftime, and Pruitt didn’t let his guys skate on that, either.

Still, there are reasons to be excited about the way Tennessee looks on that side of the ball, overall. Hopefully, Jonathan Kongbo is OK because he was playing at a high level Saturday against the Tigers before going down with an injury. Alexis Johnson is UT’s most disruptive defender so far this season, and while the Vols wish he had another year, the senior’s development is encouraging.

The defensive front got after Stidham, forcing multiple mistakes. When they had to bow up and get off the field, they did on a couple of vitally important occasions, notably forcing the Tigers into a 54-yard missed field goal in a drive that could have shifted momentum.

Injuries and a lack of speed are big concerns for UT on that side of the ball, but the Vols are playing with heart, they’re making plays and they’re in position to make others. They’ve just got to do a much better job tackling. If that happens, this can close and be as surprising of a unit as John Jancek’s group wound up being in 2015.

4. You Get An Improvement! You Get An Improvement!

It’s all over the field, and that is encouraging.

We talked about Kongbo and Johnson, two guys who nobody thought much of entering this season. Instead, both are making major impacts, and that bodes well for the future of this defense, even though they’ll be graduating. It means kids are responding, and we’re seeing that, too.

Thompson and Taylor look like they’ll be manning the secondary for years to come, and Trevon Flowers was improving, too, before breaking his collarbone in practice last week.

Guarantano, Ty Chandler, Will Ignont, Quart’e Sapp, all are getting better. Saturday saw Nathan Niehaus plugged in at guard for an injured Jahmir Johnson, and he held his own against a vaunted Auburn front. Josh Palmer is playing confident football, and he’s making plays. Jennings is finally healthy and playing like he’s got that “dawg” in him again.

This team is beginning to take on a mentality, beginning to establish a hard-nosed mentality. Can it continue, though?

It’s a huge question that remains to be answered. There is still much football to be played, and the Vols need to split the games against South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt to get bowl-eligible. Honestly, it still probably shouldn’t be expected.

But it’s at least attainable. Saturday made that possible.

This team and this program are heading in the right direction, and Pruitt continues to press all the right buttons, even though he’s still learning how to call plays within the framework of a game, still learning how to handle internal situations, still learning how to balance practices, film study, rotations, adjustments.

The Vols are learning how to win games, and Pruitt and Co. are learning how to run their brand new program.

Saturday was progress for all in a huge, huge win.

Tennessee is Full of Surprises, Beats Auburn 30-24

So I allowed myself to dream this week, and went back to read what we wrote when Butch Jones and the 2013 Vols beat #11 South Carolina in his first season. Much has changed since then: the full buy-in language of five years ago reflected the exhaustion of trying to defend Derek Dooley the three years before that with no such victories to stand on. Five years later, maybe I’m a little wiser about too much weight too fast.

It struck me, reading that piece, that you can make a very good argument that the 2013 Gamecocks – #11 on that day, #4 at the end of the year – were the single best team Jones’ Vols ever beat. The win that was supposed to be first ended up, in some ways, never being topped.

You just never know. And in some ways, that should make us celebrate days like today even more.

If there is a good connection to that 2013 South Carolina game today, it was Tennessee’s wide receivers simply willing it to happen. Marquez North did it by himself back then. Today, Marquez Callaway, Jauan Jennings, and Josh Palmer played more snaps on the field at the same time than ever before. It’s as if Tennessee’s offense decided to ditch the idea of a dedicated slot receiver and just put its three best players on the field together. And boy, did it work: 10 catches for 210 yards, almost all of them some combination of impressive and critical.

What Tennessee did on third down today was stunning. There will be time later in the week and/or the year to talk about how we cannot keep living this way: 10-of-19 against a good-to-great defense like Auburn is an unreasonable expectation. Even more: on the go-ahead drive, the Vols converted 3rd-and-10, 3rd-and-2 after 2nd-and-14, 3rd-and-9, and 3rd-and-10 for a touchdown. What?

The last time Tennessee converted double-digit third downs: Josh Dobbs’ arrival against Alabama in 2014. There’s no need to grant asterisks when the opponent is Alabama, but the 11 conversions on that night were probably aided by the Tide’s early 27-0 lead. Today, all of them mattered to the final outcome. And it wasn’t just the one drive: the Vols converted 3rd-and-10 on the blocked field goal drive, 3rd-and-13 before connecting with Ty Chandler for a 42-yard touchdown later in the second quarter, 3rd-and-8 on the first drive of the second half, and 3rd-and-10 when running the clock down on their final possession before the kneel down. That’s seven conversions of 3rd-and-8 or longer. What?

Pulling the trigger on those seven conversions was Jarrett Guarantano, who quarterbacked the second half of the worst season in program history last fall. Not the first half with an overtime win over Georgia Tech and an almost in Gainesville, but the half with the Vols getting blown out by Missouri and Vanderbilt. And it’s not even that Guarantano was bad last year, it’s that he almost died every time he dropped back to pass.

I’m not sure how much better that part actually is, which is a credit to Guarantano: that dude stands in the pocket knowing he’s going to get rocked. But here’s what he did mostly from said pocket today: 21-of-32 for 328 yards (10.25 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, zero interceptions, W. The last quarterback to throw for 10+ yards per attempt against the Tigers was Baker Mayfield in the January 2017 Sugar Bowl. Before that it was Blake Sims in the 2014 Iron Bowl.

I think plenty of us thought there was a way to get this done today that included some of what we saw: +3 in turnovers, Auburn’s offense struggling (not early, but late?). But I don’t think any of us thought the recipe would include such a dominant performance in the passing game from the Vols. And what’s more, Tennessee had a field goal blocked, got no points out of a golden opportunity on Kongbo’s interception, and were the more penalized team for most of the day. Tennessee could’ve played better! That’s incredibly encouraging going forward. But they also won today, straight up.

So. The Vols go to 3-3 and put a bowl game back on the radar. A successful end to the season is what makes memories like this one really last; when the Vols failed against Vanderbilt five years ago, that South Carolina memory lost much of its power. Today’s win is plenty potent. But if Tennessee finds a way to get to six wins, it’ll transform from a building block to a bridge.

Tennessee is getting better; that much was evident in the second half against Georgia and was true far before the outcome was sealed today. But the Vols now appear to be good enough to have a chance to win against good teams, a happy acceleration of our expectations for this season. We all know what we’re getting into next week. But this week, this day, was incredibly important for Jeremy Pruitt and these Vols. These kids did a lot of losing last year, and some of them did a lot of almost the year before. To take all that after three 26-point losses in September and make it a winner on The Plains in October? It’s a big step forward for Jeremy Pruitt, and for Tennessee.

Go Vols.