Gameday on Rocky Top

What are Tennessee’s chances for bowl eligibility with South Carolina in the rearview mirror and four games remaining? Let’s take a look.

My new expected win total:

• This week: 5.55
• Last week: 6.0
• After Week 7: 6.3
• After Week 6: 5.0
• After Week 5: 4.9
• After Week 4: 4.55
• After Week 3: 5.5

The dip from last week is mostly just converting the 50% chance of beating the Gamecocks to 0%. I have Kentucky and Missouri both at 50% and Vanderbilt steady at 60%. Charlotte remains at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-5 (1-4), 5th in the SEC East

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
• Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
• Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
• Charlotte, 4:00 PM
• Kentucky, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in Big 12, #12

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Beat Kansas, 38-22
• Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
• Bye
• Beat Baylor, 58-14
• Texas, TBD
• #17 TCU, TBD
• #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
• #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 7-2 (5-1), 1st in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
• Beat The Citadel, 26-23
• Lost to Wofford, 31-17
• Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
• Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-8 (0-4), 6th in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• Lost North Texas, 27-24
• Bye
• Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
• Lost UAB, 19-0
• Rice, 3:30 PM ET
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-2 (4-2), 3rd in SEC – East, #13

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
• Bye
• Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
• Missouri, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in SEC – East, #6

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
• Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
• Bye
• Beat Florida, 36-17
• Kentucky, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• UMass, TBD
• Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• Lost to Miss St, 23-9
• Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
• Bye
• Texas A&M, TBD
• Georgia, TBD
• Liberty, TBD
• Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Beat Arkansas, 65-31
• Beat Missouri, 39-10
• Beat Tennessee, 58-21
• Bye
• LSU, TBD
• Miss St, TBD
• The Citadel, TBD
• Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-3 (3-3), 4th in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Beat Missouri, 37-35
• Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
• Bye
• Beat Tennessee, 27-24
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Chattanooga, TBD
• Clemson, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-4 (3-2), 4th in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
• Lost to MTSU, 21-13
• Beat Southern Miss, 20-17
• Tennessee
• Marshall
• FIU
• FAU

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in SEC – East, #11

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
• Bye
• Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
• Beat Missouri, 15-14
• Georgia
• Tennessee
• MTSU
• Louisville

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-4 (0-4), 7th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
• Lost to Alabama, 39-10
• Beat Memphis, 65-33
• Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
• Florida
• Vanderbilt
• Tennessee
• Arkansas

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 4-5 (1-4), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• Lost to Georgia, 41-13
• Lost to Florida, 37-27
• Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
• Beat Arkansas, 45-31
• Missouri
• Ole Miss
• Tennessee

If you’re not encouraged about the improvement and development of the Tennessee Volunteers over the 2018 season, it’s because of some pre-programmed belief that we’re destined to fail.

I get it. The Vols lost (again) to South Carolina on Saturday night, blowing a 21-9 lead to lose 27-24 and fall to 3-5 on the season and 0-7 all-time against Will Muschamp, of all people. It’s tough to stomach, even after all these losses, all these years.

But, as I tweeted Saturday night, it’s OK to be unhappy and to be critical of some of the coaching decisions against the Gamecocks while still being encouraged about the future. That’s where I am today, and it’s where I expect I’ll straddle throughout the remainder of the frustrating first season of the Jeremy Pruitt era.

There are sickening losses mixed in with signature wins. While we all expected to lose to Alabama and Georgia, you can’t turn the ball over six times against a mediocre Florida team and expect to win. The Vols were pummeled in that game, and though the Gators have proved to be the better team as the season has matured, you’d love to play that game again mistake-free.

After stunning Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium with a near-flawless performance, the Vols had another chance to beat another team Saturday night that is probably a little better, probably a little more established, probably a little further along in the process under Muschamp. There were opportunities. They were blown.

You hope the lessons are learned from these difficult losses, but it’s OK to be critical of some of the things that happened. The penalties already have been touched upon on this site, and they were crushing. Pruitt’s decision to go into halftime up 14-9 rather than try to get late points with all your timeouts wound up being something we look back at and cringe, especially considering his aggressive style of play this season.

Not challenging the South Carolina fumble at the goal line was puzzling — even if the SEC should have reviewed the play and failed. What do you have to lose if you’re Pruitt? You can’t not challenge it because you think it may not get overturned. That was a massive play in the game that would have meant possession and maintenance of a lead. To choose to let it slide, regardless of how you think the hapless officiating crew would have ruled, was disappointing.

But this team is learning how to improve, and the coaches are learning how to manage the game. It’s a new concept for them all. We don’t have to love it, but those little things like penalties and in-game decisions and drops by Josh Palmer on tough balls but ones he could have had, and Jarrett Guarantano hanging onto the ball too long, and Jauan Jennings’ taunting penalty that gave the Gamecocks good first-half field position that resulted in a touchdown were all “little” things that added up to big things.

There were big frustrations, too, like the defensive staff’s inability to do anything to counter South Carolina’s offensive tempo, and UT’s continued offensive line woes and struggles to pressure the quarterback, but those things aren’t going to be fixed overnight.

The encouragement came in the big things Saturday, even if the biggest thing (a win) eluded the Vols once again.

I continue to be baffled by the contempt I see for Guarantano on social media. Is he the perfect quarterback? No, far from it. Does he need to grow and learn and develop? Sure he does, and he needs to at a quicker pace. But the kid didn’t throw downfield a lot Saturday night because he didn’t have time to. Get used to it. That’s because this offensive line is awful. Don’t fault him for the game plan that he executed, and though there are flaws that can keep UT from winning some games, don’t overlook how far he’s come and the things he’s doing well.

You want Keller Chryst to start? Fine. There is certainly a handful of you. But the things Guarantano is doing well outweighs the things he’s struggling with, in my opinion. He’s getting a lot of blame for the offensive line’s inability to give him even three seconds in the pocket, and that is baffling to me. Maybe Chryst reads blitzes better, and maybe he should get a shot. I don’t know; I certainly haven’t given up on Guarantano’s future, nor do I necessarily think he is the worst of the two valid quarterback options.

Maybe I’m behind the curve on that. Those who don’t want him there sure know how to voice their disdain, and it doesn’t help matters when Guarantano finally has time like on the 4th-down play at the end of the game, and hangs onto the ball too long.

But I was encouraged by the offense and Tyson Helton working around their major limitations against the Gamecocks. They got the ball to running backs and receivers on screens and swing passes, effectively moving the ball downfield from marker to marker. The Vols had 144 rushing yards, and Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan ran the ball effectively at times and fell forward. There was the brilliant play call on the Carlin Fils-aime touchdown run, and Tennessee was a remarkable 11-of-16 on third-down conversions against a defense that came into the game fourth nationally, allowing less than 25 percent conversions on the year.

As Pruitt said afterward, the offense played good enough to win.

You can blame the Swiss cheese defense that had no answer for the ‘Cocks’ quick tempo, and you can even blame the poor officiating for the botched fumble call and the ghost pass interference call, but you can’t blame offensive production. If you do, you’re barking up the wrong tree.

The defense had too many blunders like Alontae Taylor letting Bryan Edwards behind him, missed tackles and bad run fits, but this is a unit that also has enjoyed its moments this year. When you see Darrin Kirkland Jr. trying in futility to chase down a running back, Baylen Buchanan get torched or Todd Kelly Jr. failing to catch up to a receiver who’s blown past him, that’s just talent. There’s nothing Pruitt nor anybody else can do about that. The glimmers you see from that unit are few and far between because there just isn’t enough there.

It’s the same with story with the offensive line, especially now that Trey Smith is gone for who-knows-how-long and Brandon Kennedy is out for the year. What the Vols have in the trenches just isn’t good enough. It’s a nice story how much better the Vols’ four senior defensive linemen are this year than at any time in their career, but that doesn’t mean they are top-notch SEC players. They aren’t, but they’re what we have.

So, any defensive development on that side of the ball needs to be found in film study (which I have) and in the fact that players are more often than not in positions to make plays (they are) whether they make them or not. That’s why I’m encouraged on that side of the ball, despite them not being good enough right now.

Other than the Auburn game, there was little quantifiable evidence of huge offensive hopes for the future until last night. This team is playing better, and Helton called a very good game, one that should have produced a win. Just make a couple more plays and commit a couple fewer penalties, and the outcome could have been different.

But it wasn’t. And here we are. With — according to ESPN — a 17 percent chance to make a bowl game with Charlotte, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt left. Though the Vols should beat Charlotte, UK is ranked 11th nationally. The Wildcats won’t scare anybody with their offense, but they win. The defense is the truth, and UT’s slow linebackers aren’t a good matchup for Benny Snell. Missouri’s Drew Lock and Vanderbilt’s Kyle Shurmur are capable of torching Tennessee through the air.

And now we have to win three of four to make a bowl game.

It’s not going to be easy, and the goal was always a bowl. So, you can look at the failure to get to one as a knock on Pruitt’s first year. That’s fine; he’s a big boy. He can take it. It doesn’t mean you’ve given up on him or you’re a bad fan or you’re a poor-mouther or you are a troll.

It means you expect more, even when we probably shouldn’t.

But don’t give up on this team quite yet, either. The season isn’t over, and a bowl is still attainable. The failure to make a bowl, though, isn’t outright failure. This program is being built with players hopefully learning how to play the right way, where to be and what to do.

Saturday was a bump in the road, and it’s OK to be equally encouraged and disappointed today. Now, this program just has to learn to win.

Again.

Yes, we’ve been here before. But maybe this time is different, right? They can’t afford to make the little mistakes they did against the Gamecocks, or we’ll never find out.

We almost got to hit the fast forward button last night. Tennessee’s touchdown to open the third quarter wasn’t the grind of its first two, which combined to take nearly 12 minutes off the clock in 21 plays. This one was poetry: nine plays, 75 yards, and almost all of them looked like they caught South Carolina off guard. The result was a 21-9 lead with 10 minutes to play in the third quarter. The Gamecocks, 3-3 on the year, looked wobbly. Pruitt’s Vols looked ready to ascend toward bowl eligibility.

And then, the game Vegas thought we’d see showed up.

South Carolina’s next three drives covered 198 yards in 20 plays. You can do the math there on the per-play average. Tennessee’s next three covered 109 yards in 35 plays. That math isn’t as much fun.

The end result – a three-point win for South Carolina – makes sense when you look at total yards: a 376-to-351 advantage for the Gamecocks smells of a close win. But per play, South Carolina (6.71) was far superior to Tennessee (4.81).

We saw some of Tennessee’s script for victory in creating a turnover and not being loose with the ball themselves. But South Carolina, as they have done all year, made it their business to take away big plays. The Gamecocks are now ninth nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed, sixth in 30+ yard plays allowed. And when Tennessee can’t connect on those downfield shots, you get an offense that looks like the one we saw last night: overly reliant on long drives sustained by a third down conversion percentage that seems, well, unsustainable.

Tennessee has converted 33 first downs on third down passes this year (stats via Sports Source Analytics). That’s 10th nationally among teams playing fewer than nine games so far. Jarrett Guarantano was remarkable, for the most part, on third down again last night, even when it had to look different from the downfield throws. Credit Tyson Helton and Tennessee’s offense staff for drawing up a plan that still worked without them. But the more you have to live on third down, the more it will eventually kill you.

South Carolina, meanwhile, lived much more reasonably: big plays taking advantage of a vulnerable Vol secondary, but also 224 yards on 40 carries, which represented 71.4% of their offensive snaps. It’s been there all year, just covered up by turnovers against Florida, an actual win at Auburn, and the quality of opponent from Georgia and Alabama. But Tennessee’s struggles to stop the run might be the quality that most stands in the way of the Vols and bowl eligibility. The Vols are 99th nationally in yards per carry allowed. In S&P+, the offense earns high marks for what it has been able to do, 35th nationally. But the defense ranks 104th, and it’s been down there for a while.

There are no easy answers, and no quick ones either with most of the snaps on the defensive line set to graduate. The Vols have been trying to overcome it in their own way on offense: methodical drives that create few opportunities for turnovers, peppered with enough risks down the field (and enough talent at wide receiver) to keep ’em honest. But when those risks don’t pay off, as was the case last night, Tennessee needs an otherworldly percentage on third downs to sustain drives.

So the numbers say the right team won last night, which also means credit the Vols for almost winning anyway. Nine penalties certainly didn’t help. But I don’t know if the Vols can be the right team the rest of the way home here, which means they’ll need that familiar formula: win the turnover battle, limit the snaps for the other side, convert a bunch of third downs, make those splash plays count.

The good news: Missouri and Vanderbilt have not been good at all in stopping explosive plays. After what will surely be another ranked win opportunity when Kentucky visits in two weeks, the Tigers and Commodores could end up being the best match-ups the Vol offense has seen on the Power 5 level all year. Tennessee’s 4.24 yards per carry last night were UT’s most against a Power 5 opponent since John Kelly ran wild on the Gators last September.

Tennessee is still making progress, which is great. But right now, even against their secondary rivals in the SEC East, it feels like the Vols have a very specific formula for victory, without many variables. The Vols may not be the right team until Pruitt and his staff bring more talent in. But last night they gave themselves a chance to win anyway. Let’s see if they can do it again.

 

The Tennessee Vols missed out on a great opportunity get a valuable win Saturday night, losing to the South Carolina Gamecocks 27-24 in Columbia. They fall to 3-5 overall and 1-4 in conference and still need to get three more wins (with four more opportunities) to become bowl-eligible.

Despite the result, it does still appear that this Volunteers team under Jeremy Pruitt is becoming the football team we all want it to be. Saturday night they were tough and (mostly) smart, and did some really nice things throughout the game.

Tennessee had 23 first downs to South Carolina’s 19, and they converted 11 of 16 third-down attempts. The rushing attack got back on track, as the team ran for 144 yards behind 62 from Tim Jordan and 54 from Ty Chandler. And Jeremy Banks’ move from running back to linebacker this week gave some playing time to Carlin Fils-aime, who carried the ball three times for 20 yards and a touchdown on a really well-designed play call by Tyson Helton.

Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano was again tough, accurate, and safe, going 27-of-39 for 207 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Marquez Callaway led the receivers with 9 catches for 86 yards, and both Jauan Jennings and tight end Eli Wolf had receiving touchdowns.

On defense, Nigel Warrior was all over the place, leading the team with 9 tackles, and Shy Tuttle had an interception off a tipped ball and a blocked extra point.

Mostly, the team played like you wanted to see them play, and they had a real chance to win on the road because of it.

However, all of the effort and productivity was for naught, and this time it wasn’t undone by too many turnovers, but by too many penalties.

While the Gamecocks had only 2 penalties for 9 yards, Tennessee had 9 for 75. Two of Tennessee’s were costly unsportsmanlike conduct penalties, and five were false starts on the offensive line. Although three of the false starts came during drives that ultimately resulted in Tennessee touchdowns anyway, two of them were late in the game that resulted in turning the ball over on downs precisely when the Vols absolutely needed points.

This was a 50/50 game that turned out about what we expected. The failure to win it really shouldn’t impact our expectations going forward, except for the lost opportunity that another passing week represents.

Tennessee has Charlotte next and then has what appear to be three more tossups to close out Pruitt’s first season. Assuming the Vols get Charlotte, they still only need two of the final three games against Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt to earn a bowl game and the extra practice that comes with it.

Tennessee and South Carolina have been annual rivals for 26 years now. But after Carolina’s initial upset in 1992 – the final nail in Johnny Majors’ coffin – the rivalry lacked much importance during a 12-game Tennessee winning streak. That changed when Steve Spurrier arrived in 2005, beating the Vols in Knoxville. Since then, every Tennessee-South Carolina game in Columbia has become a landmark moment for the Vols in one way or another. It’s in part due to Carolina’s rise under Spurrier. But it’s also just an interesting twist of fate that the Vols have come to Columbia so often at their own crossroads. As Tennessee heads to South Carolina again this weekend, here’s a look back at the last six trips to Williams-Brice Stadium:

2006: The Last November as a Title Contender

On October 28, 2006, the #8 Vols earned a little payback for Spurrier’s win in Knoxville the year before. With College Gameday on hand, Tennessee beat South Carolina 31-24 under the lights in Columbia, turning back a 17-14 Carolina lead at the start of the fourth quarter with a 13-play, 80-yard drive. The win sent the Vols to November at 7-1, the only blemish a one-point loss to eventual BCS Champion Florida. But a late game injury would sideline Erik Ainge the following week, when the Vols fell to #13 LSU 28-24. Tennessee hasn’t been in the title conversation in November since then.

2008: Fulmer Forced Out

Already reeling at 3-5, Tennessee was no better at South Carolina. A 27-6 victory for the Gamecocks included just 207 yards from the Clawfense, and days later Fulmer was officially stepping down. He would finish out the season, though the Vols would fall to Wyoming the next week.

2010: Tyler Bray Emerges

The Vols and #20 South Carolina were tied at halftime, but a strip-sack fumble by Matt Simms was returned for a touchdown on the second play of the third quarter. That prompted Derek Dooley to hand the keys to true freshman Tyler Bray. His first pass was a pick six. But it got way better from there: Bray finished 9-of-15 for 159 yards and two touchdowns, helping the Vols rally to tie the game with 13 minutes to play. South Carolina won out behind Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery, but the Vols found their quarterback. Bray would lead Tennessee to a 4-0 run in November for bowl eligibility, taking several Tennessee freshman records along the way.

2012: Derek Dooley’s Last Chance

At #13 South Carolina, with Dooley’s Vols 3-4 and the head coach still looking for his first ranked win, Tennessee almost made it happen. Rallying back from three different 14-point deficits, Tennessee pulled within three at 38-35 with 8:35 to play, the intercepted Connor Shaw on 4th-and-4 at the UT 30 with 4:46 to go. Tyler Bray got the Vols in the red zone with less than two minutes to go when Jadeveon Clowney – silent all day up to this point – scored a sack/fumble, recovered by the Gamecocks. Dooley wouldn’t officially be fired for another few weeks, but the last of us left the ship on this day in Columbia.

2014: Josh Dobbs Emerges

Perhaps the least-tainted happy memory of the Butch Jones era. A week after entering the Alabama game and raising plenty of eyebrows, Josh Dobbs earned the first start of his sophomore season and never looked back. On the day: 301 yards passing and 166 yards rushing, a new school record for rushing yards by a quarterback. Five total touchdowns, including two in the last five minutes to turn back a 42-28 hole and get the game to overtime. Sacks on first and second down by Curt Maggitt and Derek Barnett led to a missed 58-yard field goal to win it for the Vols. Though the ultimate end for Butch Jones wasn’t what we wanted, this game remains the beginning of the real hope for something more. From November 1, 2014 to October 1, 2016 the Vols went 18-5 with wins over four ranked teams, those five losses by Jones’ now-infamous 25 points. Then we lost to Texas A&M in double overtime and got smoked by Alabama. And then…

2016: The End of the Beginning of the End for Butch Jones

Still alive in the SEC East race and in total control of their own destiny for the New Year’s Six, having survived a gauntlet of four straight ranked teams plus the Battle of Bristol, and coming off a bye week…the Vols lost to South Carolina 24-21 as a 14.5-point favorite. Dobbs, so spectacular two years earlier against the Gamecocks, was 12-of-26 for 161 yards passing and just 27 yards rushing. This was Jalen Hurd’s final game in a Tennessee uniform. And for Jones, it ended any association with that 18-5 run: 4-4 in their last eight in 2016, then 4-8 in 2017.