Sunday Stats: Vols & Guarantano Moving Up

Tennessee made the third-biggest move of the week in S&P+, up a dozen spots from 82nd to 70th overall (shout out to Minnesota’s 41-10 beat down of Purdue, leaping 23 spots). The bad news: Missouri is a Top 25 team in S&P+. The Tigers actually fell three spots after a narrow victory over Vanderbilt, but are 23rd in the S&P+ rankings and would be favored by about a touchdown on the Vols. The good news: Vanderbilt is now the worst team in the league by the same metric.

Jarrett Guarantano in national rankings (via Sports Source Analytics): 27th in completion percentage, 24th in yards per attempt, and one of only eight quarterbacks with 200+ passing attempts and two or fewer interceptions. They showed this on the Jumbotron yesterday and I didn’t believe it, but it’s true (via Sports Reference): Guarantano’s career completion percentage of 63.8% is currently the best in school history. Daryl Dickey completed 63% of his passes, Peyton Manning 62.5%. Guarantano is at 65.1% in 2018; no Vol quarterback has hit that mark since Erik Ainge in 2006 (67%).

Things we’re still bad at: the Vols are 126th nationally in tackles for loss allowed, surrendering 8.3 per game. This is still a worse pace than last year (7.42 per game), but also still an improvement in terms of how far we’re going backward. Last year the Vols lost an average of 4.1 yards per TFL. This year it’s only an average of three yards lost. More runs for -1, fewer total disasters, etc.

Tennessee continues to be far more explosive this season. Last year the Vols had 38 plays of 20+ yards and 18 plays of 30+ yards. This year, through ten games: 45 plays of 20+ yards, 24 plays of 30+ yards.

Guarantano only has a pair of interceptions, but the Vols have now lost ten fumbles (and put it on the ground an additional five times). The ten fumbles lost is good for 111th nationally.

 

Sunday Best: Tennessee vs. Kentucky, Complete Domination

We’re just going to get this out of the way up front: Regardless of what happens the rest of this season, Jeremy Pruitt is the real deal.

Tennessee finally has a football coach who eats, breathes, and sleeps football. He doesn’t just talk circles around knowing the game; he actually knows it. That’s evidenced by the way this UT team is always in position to make plays whether it makes them or not and by just how much the Vols have improved in every facet of the game this year.

The talent level is nowhere near where it needs to be, yet there Tennessee was on Saturday, doing Tennessee things to Kentucky in a 24-7 win at Neyland Stadium despite that “No. 11” by the Wildcats’ name in the national rankings.

It was — from start to finish — the most dominant, complete, strong effort in every phase of the game that Tennessee has played since the 2016 win over Georgia that culminated with the Joshua Dobbs Hail Mary heroics to Jauan Jennings. Yes, UT beat Kentucky and Missouri that year, but we’re talking about strong efforts against good teams.

Make no mistake: Kentucky is a good team. The Wildcats aren’t great, and they are one-dimensional, which allowed the Vols to hone in on Benny Snell Jr. and the rushing attack on Saturday, but you don’t get to be 7-2 and playing Georgia just a week ago for a place in the SEC Championship Game if you aren’t a good team.

The Vols were just better on Saturday, and this was an even better outing than UT’s upset of Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

You want special teams?

The Vols hit a field goal and blocked one of its own when Shy Tuttle surged through the line and got his mit on a kick for his second swat of the year. Though Joe Doyle didn’t have his best punting effort, netting 38.7 yards per punt, he did have a 52-yarder and also pinned UK inside the 20 once.

How about defense?

Without question, this was the best effort of the Pruitt era. This team has taken on the no-nonsense approach of its coach, and the level of intensity was elevated from the very first snap of the game. Up 24-0, the Vols let up a little and started playing soft coverage, but other than a couple of lapses in those drives, it was a brilliant effort.

Darrell Taylor proved once again that when he is playing at a high level, the Vols are at their best up front. He had four sacks off the edge, just 0.5 short of Corey Miller’s single-game team record [also set against Kentucky]. The defensive tackles played their best game of the season, holding their own against UK’s strong offensive front and shutting down run lanes. And Marquill Osborne grabbed a pair of interceptions in relief of Bryce Thompson, who went out when it looked like he got his bell rung.

The Vols were in Snell’s head, and they most importantly got in quarterback Terry Wilson’s face for much of the game, causing the JUCO transfer signal-caller to simply throw the ball away more often than not. The Wildcats never could generate anything in the passing game, and UT was able to pin its ears back and get after him. There were blitzes from all different directions, several diverse looks in the front seven, and strong coverage on the back end.

It was an ideal effort when the Vols had to have it. Even when the offense struggled in little lulls and when UT turned the ball over with two late fumbles, the defense rose to the occasion.

So, how about that offense?

Yeah, it was excellent, too, after a slow start. While you may argue quarterback Jarrett Guarantano’s stats were better in the Auburn game and he made more of a difference with the deep ball, Saturday actually was a comparable effort.

Entering the game, the Wildcats had allowed just four big passing plays all season. Tennessee had five against them in one game.

None was bigger than the end-of-the-first-half Hail Mary after the Vols got in launching position for Guarantano. On the play, he stepped up in the pocket to avoid a pass rusher, lofted the ball up perfectly to Marquez Callaway, who high-pointed the ball by using his high school basketball skills and coming down with it to give the Vols a walk-off 17-0 lead entering the break.

When it came to the rushing attack, UT’s performance came from nowhere as the Vols piled up 215 yards on the ground. Sophomore Jordan Murphy’s 59-yard scamper on an end-around was a massive play, and then Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan had several moments of brilliance, too.

More on Murphy: the kid has the kind of speed Tennessee doesn’t have much of, and he caught a long pass and had that long run against the Wildcats. Getting him more involved moving forward would be a great idea for a UT team that could use a game-breaker.

As far as the offensive line goes, Guarantano took a few more hits again than you’d like, and Drew Richmond had a couple of costly false start penalties. But this was the best performance since UT had moments of neutralization against Auburn’s defensive front. Kentucky has a bunch of good linemen, but the Vols held their own. Guarantano had more time to throw, and it was evident by how well he played.

All over the field, Tennessee found stars.

Now, with Missouri and Vanderbilt remaining on the schedule, finishing 7-5 seems a little more possible than going 5-7, which says a lot about just what Saturday’s win did for this program. A week ago after a 14-3 sleepwalking win over Charlotte, nobody felt like the Vols were getting stronger.

But when they elevated the intensity, the entire team fed off one another.

Going 6-6 with this team and this roster would be a big accomplishment, especially after the blown opportunity against South Carolina and the Vols taking themselves out of any chance to beat Florida early in the year because of turnovers. Next week’s home game against Missouri is a very bad matchup for a UT team that doesn’t seem like its best-equipped to win in a shootout, and Drew Lock is capable of throwing the ball all over the place.

That game looks more winnable now, though. Tennessee threw it around a little, too, this week, and the running game could find some lanes against Mizzou’s front seven. Even though last week’s win over Charlotte was unimpressive, the defense played extremely well, so this is two weeks in a row that side of the ball has looked good. That’s called momentum, and, against UK, Micah Abernathy returned from injury and made his presence felt while Theo Jackson was inserted at the other safety spot and looked very good at times, too.

Next week, the Vols should get freshman star safety Trevon Flowers back, too, just in time to help combat the Tigers’ passing attack as Derek Dooley returns to Neyland as Mizzou’s offensive coordinator.

The Vanderbilt game could go either way, too, considering the Commodores are on a two-game winning streak over UT and that game is in Nashville.

But there’s one big difference between those Tennessee teams and this one: Pruitt is on the sideline instead of Butch Jones.

You can’t underestimate just how much these players are buying into Pruitt’s way of coaching, into playing for four quarters and approaching each play with a level of toughness. This isn’t spouting some cute phrase like “63 effort.” It’s actually going out there and putting it on the resume of a football field.

These Vols did that against Kentucky on Saturday, and it bodes well not only for the rest of the season but the future of the Pruitt era.

Is it possible UT drops the final two games of the season and all these good vibrations fade away? Sure, it is. This team has shown that, while it can play at a high level against good teams, it also has a narrow margin for error. Make mistakes and kill drives, and it can get ugly for the Vols in a hurry. Whether they win anymore this season hinges on just what Tennessee shows up.

The simple fact that we’re seeing the team that arrived at Neyland Stadium on Saturday and stayed for the outset is proof that the buy-in is coming for these players, and when Pruitt gets more of “his guys” who do it “his way” in there, the Vols are going to start winning. Obviously we can’t predict whether UT will start winning big, but any wins would be welcome for this program in the state it’s been in.

The Vols won Saturday against the nation’s No. 11 team. They dominated Kentucky, winning in Neyland Stadium against UK for the 17th straight time dating all the way back to 1984.

This was a good matchup for Tennessee because Kentucky can’t fling the ball all over the field and had shown an inability to be a consistent offensive team at times throughout the year. The Vols took advantage of that, doing everything they were supposed to do to make it difficult on UK. But Vegas had still installed Kentucky as a 5-point favorite by kickoff; the Vols won by 17.

The matchup won’t be as favorable next week, but Pruitt and Co. have to feel pretty good about this win, and unlike the huge upset of Auburn earlier in the year, Alabama doesn’t loom the next week to crush that momentum. Instead, it’s Missouri, then Vanderbilt. Two winnable games for a team that is now getting used to winning.

That’s a testament to Pruitt, his staff and these players for turning away from the infestation of losing that oozed from the end of the Jones era, taking the tough love from their new coach and responding with some moments that can make us all proud to be Tennessee Vols.

Saturday was one of those days.

Tennessee 24 Kentucky 7 – Almost Always, Almost Never

Tennessee used three turnovers and an unreal third-and-long performance to beat Auburn. And despite a 21-9 third quarter lead, the right team won in Columbia two weeks ago with the Gamecocks dominant in their comeback. We assumed this – third downs, turnovers, etc. – was Tennessee’s specific path to victory, and it would take more talent for the Vols to be the right team.

Today, against the #11 Kentucky Wildcats, Tennessee was the right team.

It’s felt weird all week, Kentucky being favored and (rightly) ranked so high. And so now, on the heels of Tennessee’s 24-7 victory, there’s a tendency to treat it like business as usual; the Vols haven’t lost to Kentucky, ranked or otherwise, in Knoxville since 1984.

Let’s be clear: this was not business as usual. Not just for Jeremy Pruitt, but for the Vols in recent memory.

Two second half fumbles made the score look more respectable. But Tennessee gained 412 yards in 60 snaps, 6.86 yards per play. Kentucky gained 262 yards in 73 plays, 3.59 yards per play. That difference of 3.27 yards per play is the best for any Vol squad against power five competition since Lane Kiffin’s 2009 Vols beat Georgia 45-19 with a difference of 3.49 yards per play.

That day felt like validation. Again, it’s hard for a Tennessee coach to earn validation by beating Kentucky in football. But those Dawgs were unranked, and these Cats just outside the Top 10. It feels a bit like Tennessee’s blowout of #12 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl at the end of the 2015 season: the name can carry more weight than the ranking, so much so we might fail to appreciation the level of domination.

Much of the validation we’re looking for – as much as is available this year – is one more win away. Butch Jones beat a South Carolina team that finished fourth nationally, but a failure to earn bowl eligibility made that memory fade. As we’ve mentioned before, those Gamecocks might have been the best team Jones beat in his entire tenure. But at Tennessee, 5-7 is never going to qualify as a memorable year.

For today to last, the Vols need to win one more. But for now…today was quite memorable indeed.

Jarrett Guarantano averaged 9.9 yards per attempt and tear-dropped several balls, including the end-of-half hail mary. For a team that couldn’t run all year? Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan combined for 152 yards on 31 carries, plus 59 more for Jordan Murphy on the reverse. Two school records were tied or broken today, as Darrell Taylor notched four sacks and Guarantano continues to just not throw interceptions. He’s got a shot at Peyton Manning’s single-season record of four picks.

Tennessee wasn’t lucky or gimmicky. They simply dominated Kentucky on both sides of the ball, the type of performance that raises the ceiling of everyone involved.

Jeremy Pruitt now has two ranked wins in ten games. Lane Kiffin got one in his only season, Derek Dooley infamously went oh-for-three-years, and Butch Jones got the Gamecocks in year one and Georgia in year three. It’s a big deal.

Pruitt also got a schedule that some might rank the toughest in the nation through this week. Kentucky is the sixth Tennessee foe to have spent time in the Top 15 this season. The next two won’t make that list, but the Vols still need one of them to earn bowl eligibility. Missouri will present in many ways the opposite challenge from today; if Vanderbilt beats Ole Miss next week the Vols and ‘Dores could face each other with only one going through to the postseason.

There’s work left to do. But today was some of the best work we’ve seen in this decade. We almost always beat Kentucky. But we almost never beat a ranked team – or anyone – like this.

Go Vols.

 

Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-Kentucky

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 4-5 (1-4) Tennessee Vols hosting the 7-2 (5-2) and 11th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats on the SEC Network. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Saturday, November 10, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
No. 10 Ohio State No. 18 Michigan State 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
South Carolina No. 15 Florida 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop - Priority 1 Past Opponents
TCU No. 9 West Virginia 12:00 PM FS1 Channel Hop Past Opponent
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 11 Kentucky Tennessee 3:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN Live Go Vols!
No. 16 Mississippi State No. 1 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Watch the score Top 25 Matchup
Oklahoma State No. 6 Oklahoma 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN Watch the score Top 25 Team
EVENING SLATE
No. 24 Auburn No. 5 Georgia 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop - Priority 1 Top 25 Matchup
No. 2 Clemson No. 17 Boston College 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

And here’s a searchable version of the entire college football TV schedule for the day:

Date Away Home Time TV
Wed Nov 7 Ohio Miami (OH) 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Wed Nov 7 Toledo Northern Illinois 8:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Thu Nov 8 Wake Forest No. 14 NC State 7:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 9 Louisville No. 13 Syracuse 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 9 No. 23 Fresno State Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 No. 10 Ohio State No. 18 Michigan State 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 10 Navy No. 12 UCF 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 South Carolina No. 15 Florida 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 TCU No. 9 West Virginia 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 10 Wisconsin No. 20 Penn State 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Akron Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 10 BYU UMass 12:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 Illinois Nebraska 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 10 Kansas Kansas State 12:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 Lafayette Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 10 Maryland Indiana 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 10 Ole Miss Texas A&M 12:00 PM CBS
Sat Nov 10 SMU UConn 12:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 10 Tulsa Memphis 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Vanderbilt Missouri 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 North Carolina Duke 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Troy Georgia Southern 1:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 North Texas Old Dominion 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 10 UCLA Arizona State 2:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 Charlotte Marshall 2:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 Bowling Green Central Michigan 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 Liberty Virginia 3:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Middle Tennessee UTEP 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 No. 11 Kentucky Tennessee 3:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 No. 16 Mississippi State No. 1 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Nov 10 Baylor No. 22 Iowa State 3:30 PM FS1
Sat Nov 10 No. 4 Michigan Rutgers 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 10 No. 8 Washington State Colorado 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Northwestern No. 21 Iowa 3:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 10 Oklahoma State No. 6 Oklahoma 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 New Mexico Air Force 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 10 Purdue Minnesota 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Appalachian State Texas State 4:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 10 East Carolina Tulane 4:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 San Jose State Utah State 4:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 Arkansas State Coastal Carolina 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 Georgia State Louisiana 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 UL Monroe South Alabama 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 5:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 Oregon Utah 5:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 10 No. 24 Auburn No. 5 Georgia 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Florida Intl UTSA 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 Miami Georgia Tech 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Rice Louisiana Tech 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 South Florida Cincinnati 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Temple Houston 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 10 Florida State No. 3 Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBC
Sat Nov 10 No. 19 Texas Texas Tech 7:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 10 No. 7 LSU Arkansas 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Southern Mississippi UAB 7:30 PM
Sat Nov 10 No. 2 Clemson No. 17 Boston College 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Oregon State Stanford 9:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 California USC 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Colorado State Nevada 10:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 UNLV San Diego State 10:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN

 

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

Go Vols!

Tennessee vs Louisiana Preview

It’s a progressive opening run for Tennessee: after a D-II blowout win, the Vols will be tested up the ladder by Louisiana tonight (120th in KenPom), Georgia Tech (90th) on Tuesday, then Louisville (66th) in the preseason NIT with a chance to face #1 Kansas.

The Ragin’ Cajuns went 27-7 last year, easily winning the Sun Belt at 16-2 before a 71-68 loss in the conference tournament sent them to the NIT. They lost in the opening round to LSU 84-76, book-ending their season with losses to SEC teams with a 94-76 beat down from Ole Miss in the opener.

Their leading scorer graduated, but there are plenty of points left to go around: Louisiana dropped 121 on the University of the Virgin Islands in the opener, with six players in double figures. They scored 100+ six times last year, and they dominated the rest of the Sun Belt on the glass, leading the league in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage (via KenPom). Overall the Cajuns were sixth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, but they also graduated Bryce Washington (6’6″ 255) who led those efforts.

Louisiana started a three-forward lineup that went 6’6″, 6’6″, and 6’8″ in the opener. None have the bulk of Washington, but they also didn’t need many offensive rebounds while shooting 14-of-24 from the arc. Last year these guys were just really good at taking advantage everywhere: 76.1% from the free throw line and 46.4% from the floor. Their defense also seemed to chase people away from the three point line, giving up the 52nd-fewest threes attempted on the season despite playing at such a fast pace and playing from in front so often in the Sun Belt.

Jakeenan Grant also excelled as a shot blocker, sending back 9.1% of the shots against him, 39th nationally. Point guard Marcus Stroman was 14th nationally in assist rate (10 assists in the season opener), 80th in steal rate, and fourth nationally in free throw rate. He clearly makes things go for the rest of their offense. 

This is an experienced team that’s used to winning and each other. It’ll be interesting to see what Tennessee elects to do with a team that wants to score a bunch of points in an efficient manner. They were 55th nationally in KenPom offense last season, and could continue to excel even without their best scorer and rebounder from last season.

It’s a good early test for the Vols as they continue to build toward New York City. 7:00 PM, SEC Network.

 

Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: Kentucky edition

It’s time for this week’s edition of the GRT Guessing Game. If you are new here and have no idea what this is all about, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

Locks & Keys Week 11: Tennessee vs. Kentucky – This is the Season

You’d be right to be a Tennessee fan and be concerned that the Vols are hosting a top-15 program in a must-win situation in order to make it to the postseason [at least, with a traditional 6-6 record…]

Yet, that’s exactly what position I think the Vols are in this weekend when the Kentucky Wildcats come to Neyland Stadium for a chilly matchup.

It’s been a dream season for coach Mark Stoops, star running back Benny Snell Jr., dynamic pass-rusher Josh Allen and the rest of the Wildcats, who played Georgia last weekend for a chance to represent the SEC East in the SEC Championship Game. Prior to that loss to the better Bulldogs, the only setback for Stoops’ team was an overtime loss to Texas A&M at Kyle Field.

No matter if it was the phantom pass interference call giving them an untimed down they turned into a touchdown or breaking a long losing streak to Florida, UK has simply found a way all season. Now, Tennessee has to get by the ‘Cats.

You may ask why this is a must-win with Tennessee only needing two wins to close the season in order to get to six wins. That’s because, in my estimation, Mizzou is a horrible matchup for the Vols with its elite passing game and the way Drew Lock is playing. The Tigers look better on defense, can beat you with the running backs, and I don’t think the Vols can score enough to win.

Kentucky, on the other hand, isn’t a bad matchup. Yes, the Cats are strong on both lines of scrimmage and seasoned with veterans. They also have Snell. But they don’t score a ton of points, and UT is better-equipped to play in a slugfest than a shootout. This is a vitally important game for the Vols, so let’s look at the keys to winning.

KEYS

Make Wilson beat you

Tennessee is 10th in the SEC in rush defense and now has to face the league’s best running back in Snell. That’s not good news. It also shouldn’t give the Vols the warm-and-fuzzies that UK quarterback Terry Wilson has looked much better throwing the ball in the past two weeks against Missouri and Georgia.

But the Vols have to make him beat them.

That means loading the box and going all-out to slow down Snell. That’s what Georgia did, and it worked. Now, UT doesn’t have anywhere near the talent on that side of the ball that the Bulldogs do, but coach Jeremy Pruitt has made a habit of making things difficult on certain aspects of the game. The Vols have to limit Snell and get the Cats off the field on third downs.

Slow Allen

Kentucky edge-rusher Josh Allen is a next-level player who’ll be one of the highest picks in the NFL Draft.

Now, he gets to go up against Tennessee’s hapless offensive line that couldn’t even block Charlotte last week. Yes, the 49ers are good against the run, but they haven’t exactly played quality competition all year. Still, they dominated the Vols up front.

Good luck, Jarrett Guarantano. Good luck, UT offense.

Allen is going to get through at times; there’s no doubt about that. So, offensive coordinator Tyson Helton needs to mask the issues by the quick passing game like UT did against South Carolina. Quick-hitters are the only way to keep Guarantano from getting killed.

Take some shots

I will forever be frustrated with Tennessee fans for ripping Guarantano when the kid has two or three seconds to throw the football. That is a lack of football acumen.

You can think Keller Chryst would be a better option. You can think Guarantano doesn’t do a great job reading blitzes. Those things are fine. But Guarantano is a tough kid who’s done a good job this year. He isn’t the reason UT’s offense sucks.

The offensive line is. Helton deserves some blame, too.

But if Tennessee can loosen UK’s defense by keeping it on its toes with the short passing game and perhaps a little running success, the Vols must take some shots downfield. That’s how they beat Auburn, and we’ve not seen a lot of it since. This is the kind of game where you must pull out all the stops.

Get hot early

It’s going to be extremely cold in Knoxville with the high temperature barely creeping over 40 degrees.

If the Vols do what they did against Florida, you’re going to see a lot of grumbling fans get up and go home. That’s why UT needs to jump ahead early and keep the heat on. If the crowd gets into it, it could be a fun game.

Tennessee has been awful at Neyland Stadium this year, and that’s disappointing for the first year of the Pruitt era. It’s high time the Vols play with a home-field advantage and see what Neyland can do for them. I hope the crowd is into it because it is such a huge game. This isn’t . the Kentucky we’re used to seeing.

If UT gets up a score early, the crowd will follow.

Abernathy and Flowers? Pray for hours

The last few weeks have been torture for Tennessee’s secondary with Micah Abernathy and Trevon Flowers out for at least the past month with injuries and Alontae Taylor missing swaths of action thanks to two targeting calls.

Now, Taylor will be back on the field to start the game against the Wildcats, and he may have company from his two buddies. Flowers and Abernathy are both game-time decisions according to Pruitt, and both have seen some action on the practice field this week.

The only member of UT’s secondary to intercept a pass this year is Bryce Thompson, so UT can definitely use some playmakers on the back end. Those two guys — starting safeties — being on the back level will allow Thompson to get after the quarterback some. When the Vols can creep up a DB in the box and sometimes blitz the quarterback, good things happen.

UT needs those guys out there. Badly.

Prediction: Tennessee has to win one, so I’m going with my heart, even if my head says it probably won’t happen. Pruitt gets another big one.

Vols win, 24-23

LOCKS

At this point of the season, 5-2 is a solid tally, and we’ve moved back in black for the season now standing at 32-31. It’s taken a strong three-week run to get there, and we’ll try to continue that hot streak this week. The start of the season was bizarre, and even Alabama didn’t help us any. But we have worked hard to get back to MAKING MONEY, so let’s keep it going.

There isn’t much time to get back to the good, so we’ll set the modest goal of being six games over .500 in the next three weeks. If we can get to that point, it’ll be a solid season.

Last week, MTSU handled the 13.5-point spread against Western Kentucky, West Virginia’s late two-point conversion gave the Mountaineers the outright win over Texas when it was a two-point underdog. Georgia breezed by Kentucky to make the nine-point spread look like a piece of cake, USC won by 17, and though that game was 13.5 at kickoff, we called it at 16.5 and still won (barely). Boston College wrapped up the wins by toppling Virginia Tech to cover a 2.5-point spread.

We said Florida would cover a six-point spread against Missouri, and instead, the Gators got whipped in one of the biggest stunners of the SEC season. Finally, I thought the Cal-Wazzu game would go over 50, and it never got close as the Cougars won 19-13.

Still, we’ll take 5-2 all day every day. Let’s repeat that feat, shall we?

  1. West Virginia -11.5 over TCU: Whew. Too many favorites this week, huh? Yeah, I think so, too. But I’m a massive fan of Will Grier and Dana Holgorsen, and this is the kind of offense that rarely takes games off. TCU doesn’t have the same D Iowa State does. Mountaineers roll.
  2. Ohio State -4 over Michigan State: The Buckeyes are in trouble and fading fast. So why in the world would I take them on the road against Sparty? I am not a Brian Lewerke believer, and Dwayne Haskins will make just enough plays for OSU to win by eight or more.
  3. MTSU -13.5 over UTEP: This is one of those lines that are puzzling to me. Just because UTEP beat an awful Rice team for its first win of the year last week doesn’t mean it’s ready to hang with good teams like the Blue Raiders. This one’s gonna get ugly.
  4. Washington State -6 over Colorado: The Cougars killed us last week against Cal even though they won. They won’t throw up two clunkers in a row. The Minshew Moustache won’t allow it. Wazzu rolls.
  5.  Purdue -11.5 over Minnesota: I’m going to keep riding the Fighting Brohms. I believe. Do I like that it’s on the road against a good defensive team? No, I don’t love it. But I like it enough to roll with it.
  6. Oregon +4.5 over Utah:  Another puzzling one. Utah is perhaps the better team, but only when Tyler Huntley is playing. He’s out for the year. Give me Mario Cristobal’s team to surge to seven wins.
  7. LSU -13.5 over Arkansas: What? The Tigers aren’t THAT beat-up after the game against the Tide. The Tigers are leap-years better than the Hogs. They’ll dominate this one and win something like 27-6.

 

Tennessee-Kentucky statistical comps preview: Expect a close one in Neyland Saturday

The SPM was the bearer of bad news last week in advance of the Tennessee-Charlotte game, and although you can’t really say it nailed the thing, it was saner than most of us Tennessee fans.

This week, the SPM bucks the trend again, giving the Vols a better chance to win and calling for a closer game than any of Vegas, S&P+, or FPI. It still likes Kentucky to pull out the victory but thinks it will be a slightly closer contest than many think.

Predictions

SPM: Kentucky 19.3Tennessee 15

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17

Tennessee rushing yards: 70

Tennessee passing yards: 200

Kentucky rushing yards: 200

Kentucky passing yards: 90

Tennessee points: 17

Kentucky points: 20

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 127.7 rushing yards per game, while Kentucky is giving up 133.2 per game. That’s nearly identical to Auburn, which is giving up 133.9 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 68 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Kentucky is Alabama, which is allowing 102.1. Tennessee got 31 on the ground against Alabama. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Kentucky is 70.

Kentucky rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 161.1 rushing yards per game, while the Kentucky run game is averaging 199.6 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 184.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 201 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 224.0 rushing yards per game and got 218 against Tennessee. Assuming Benny Snell plays (he’s “probable”), I’m guessing Kentucky will get about 200 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 205.3 passing yards per game, and Kentucky is allowing 178.6. That’s almost identical to Florida, which is giving up 179.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 208 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 172.3 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 143 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will basically get its average of around 200 passing yards this weekend.

Kentucky passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 207.3 passing yards per game. Kentucky is getting 156.8, which makes it the least productive passing offense the Vols have played all season (117th in the nation). The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is averaging 170.4 passing yards per game and got 39 against Tennessee. Based on all of that, I’m going with Tennessee limiting Kentucky to about 90 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 24.3 points per game, and Kentucky is allowing 15.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is allowing 16.4 points per game, and Tennessee got 12 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama. They’re allowing 14.1 points per game, and Tennessee got 21 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 17 points against Kentucky.

Kentucky scoring

Tennessee is allowing 26.7 points per game. Kentucky is averaging 24.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte, which is averaging 20.6 points, and they got 3 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.3 points and got 24 against Tennessee. I’m going with Kentucky putting up about 20 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Kentucky by 5.5-6, with an over/under of 42.5-43, which converts to somewhere around 24-18, Kentucky.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 33.7% chance of winning and puts the score at Kentucky 28.8, Tennessee 21.5, a spread of -7.3.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 33.5% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Kentucky 19.3, Tennessee 15, a spread of only -4.3.

After looking even closer at the numbers, I’m going with Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17, a spread of -3.

2018 college football TV schedule for Vols fans: Week 11

Thursday, Friday

Thursday, November 8, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
Wake Forest No. 14 NC State 7:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team

 

Friday, November 9, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
Louisville No. 13 Syracuse 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team
No. 23 Fresno State Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Team

 

Hey, football’s almost over. Squeeze it in while you can. Don’t dwell on the fact that Syracuse is No. 13 and Fresno State is ranked.

Gameday

Saturday, November 10, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
No. 10 Ohio State No. 18 Michigan State 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
South Carolina No. 15 Florida 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop - Priority 1 Past Opponents
TCU No. 9 West Virginia 12:00 PM FS1 Channel Hop Past Opponent
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 11 Kentucky Tennessee 3:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN Live Go Vols!
No. 16 Mississippi State No. 1 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Watch the score Top 25 Matchup
Oklahoma State No. 6 Oklahoma 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN Watch the score Top 25 Team
EVENING SLATE
No. 24 Auburn No. 5 Georgia 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop - Priority 1 Top 25 Matchup
No. 2 Clemson No. 17 Boston College 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

The main thing to watch in the noon slate this week is former opponents South Carolina and Florida. We want bad things for Florida more than we want bad things for South Carolina, right?

No. 11 Kentucky comes to Neyland Stadium to take on the Vols at 3:30 on the SEC Network. It’s important.

If you’re interested and perhaps a bit delusional, maybe Mississippi State at Alabama could be interesting. Hahahahahahaha. Bedlam is often fun, though, so keep an eye on the end of that game.

And finally, No. 24 Auburn travels to Georgia to take on the Bulldogs at 7:00 on ESPN. War Eagle.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
Wed Nov 7 Ohio Miami (OH) 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Wed Nov 7 Toledo Northern Illinois 8:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Thu Nov 8 Wake Forest No. 14 NC State 7:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 9 Louisville No. 13 Syracuse 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Fri Nov 9 No. 23 Fresno State Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 No. 10 Ohio State No. 18 Michigan State 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 10 Navy No. 12 UCF 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 South Carolina No. 15 Florida 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 TCU No. 9 West Virginia 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 10 Wisconsin No. 20 Penn State 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Akron Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 10 BYU UMass 12:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 Illinois Nebraska 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 10 Kansas Kansas State 12:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 Lafayette Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 10 Maryland Indiana 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 10 Ole Miss Texas A&M 12:00 PM CBS
Sat Nov 10 SMU UConn 12:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 10 Tulsa Memphis 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Vanderbilt Missouri 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 North Carolina Duke 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Troy Georgia Southern 1:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 North Texas Old Dominion 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 10 UCLA Arizona State 2:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 Charlotte Marshall 2:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 Bowling Green Central Michigan 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 Liberty Virginia 3:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Middle Tennessee UTEP 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 No. 11 Kentucky Tennessee 3:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 No. 16 Mississippi State No. 1 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Nov 10 Baylor No. 22 Iowa State 3:30 PM FS1
Sat Nov 10 No. 4 Michigan Rutgers 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 10 No. 8 Washington State Colorado 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Northwestern No. 21 Iowa 3:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 10 Oklahoma State No. 6 Oklahoma 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 New Mexico Air Force 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 10 Purdue Minnesota 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Appalachian State Texas State 4:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 10 East Carolina Tulane 4:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 San Jose State Utah State 4:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 Arkansas State Coastal Carolina 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 Georgia State Louisiana 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 UL Monroe South Alabama 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 5:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 Oregon Utah 5:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 10 No. 24 Auburn No. 5 Georgia 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Florida Intl UTSA 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 Miami Georgia Tech 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Rice Louisiana Tech 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 10 South Florida Cincinnati 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Temple Houston 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 10 Florida State No. 3 Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBC
Sat Nov 10 No. 19 Texas Texas Tech 7:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 10 No. 7 LSU Arkansas 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Southern Mississippi UAB 7:30 PM
Sat Nov 10 No. 2 Clemson No. 17 Boston College 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Oregon State Stanford 9:00 PM
Sat Nov 10 California USC 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 Colorado State Nevada 10:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 10 UNLV San Diego State 10:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN

Rotation, Rotation, Rotation

It all starts tonight for the #6 Vols. That’s the highest preseason ranking in program history, and better than any preseason ranking in football since 2005. These are good days. Enjoy them.

Lenoir-Rhyne shouldn’t find much to enjoy tonight, the Division II alma mater of Rick Barnes. As such, we shouldn’t learn a whole lot about the Vols, at least not until Friday when the Rajun Cajuns (a 27-7 NIT squad last year) come calling. More on them later. For now, in the absence of specific details to watch for against a D-II squad, here’s something to keep an eye on as the season unfolds:

So, what will this look like?

Last year the Vols had two primary lineups: one with Kyle Alexander and two of Bone, Bowden, and Turner. And one without Alexander where all three guards played together with Schofield and Williams. Lineups with some combination of those six players made up 42.9% of Tennessee’s minutes down the stretch of the season last year according to KenPom’s data.

Derrick Walker’s minutes varied by the opponent last year: before getting 18 minutes in Alexander’s absence against Loyola-Chicago, Walker played 9-22 minutes four times and 2-6 minutes three times in the last seven games. John Fulkerson got lots of run early, then played only a single minute (when Grant Williams fouled out?) against Georgia around three DNPs in late February/early March. Then he played 7-15 minutes in the last four games of the year.

The winner of the preseason chatter award on this team seems to be Yves Pons, who saw no SEC action until late January, then became a four minutes per game guy, then averaged seven per game in the last four. There are guard minutes up for grabs with James Daniel’s graduation. Yves isn’t going to run the point, but could he guard one on the other end for a few minutes?

The tenth man, if you believe freshman DJ Burns is headed for a redshirt, should be Jalen Johnson. He gave the Vols nine minutes in the win over Texas A&M, but otherwise wasn’t relied on for more than a couple minutes here and there in non-blowouts. Will Barnes utilize Johnson as a true member of the rotation, or will he just earn the same spot minutes?

Tennessee can be the same team in crunch time, both the with-and-without Kyle Alexander versions, if they choose to be. But in the other 36ish minutes, how will Barnes tinker? After needing 31+ minutes from Armani Moore, Kevin Punter, and Robert Hubbs his first two years, last season Barnes had the luxury of not needing any more than 28 minutes from Williams and Schofield. If the Vols go 10-deep, how consistent will the rotations be? Is there room for a breakthrough from Pons or Walker with so much traffic ahead of them? And how long will it take for this team to find its groove?

It all starts tonight.