Short-Handed Vols Skip the Lesson, Blow Out South Carolina

Jordan Bowden tweaked his knee pregame and did not play. Kyle Alexander was in foul trouble early and often, finishing with two points. That opened the door for Chris Silva, who had 28 points and 10 rebounds. Columbia was rocking as South Carolina looked to go to 6-1 in league play.

The Vols won by 22.

Tennessee’s nine-point halftime lead was slowly whittled to two with 13 minutes to play. The Vols hit an 11-3 run over the next four minutes, and a Derrick Walker and-one made it 14 at the under eight timeout. With two of Tennessee’s top six players down, guys like Walker and John Fulkerson (six points, three rebounds) stepped up. When South Carolina threatened, Tennessee completely erased it in less than five minutes.

A game that felt like it could expose Tennessee’s weaknesses and become the loss that teaches a lesson…just wasn’t. After the first seven minutes, the Vols led by multiple possessions until the aforementioned South Carolina run, then immediately pushed it back out again. And ultimately, Columbia only rocked for free Chick-fil-A.

This is plenty of fun, but the real goal remains twofold: generally, keep getting better, and specifically, get as far up the bracket as possible. That starts with a one seed and ends with a path to Minneapolis that goes back through Columbia and then Louisville. The Vols are more likely to have some losses left in them than not, and on paper tonight easily could’ve been one without Bowden and Alexander. The fact that it wasn’t, at all, is a testament to the reality of this team’s goals.

Grant Williams scoring 23 points isn’t news these days, but Admiral Schofield’s return to form was. This was a vintage PB&J game: 18-of-32 from the floor, 10-of-13 from the line, 47 points and 18 rebounds combined. Lamonte Turner stayed hot with 13 points and three more threes. And Jordan Bone added 19 points and nine assists.

This is apparently life now, and life is good. It goes to Texas A&M next, where the Vols can set the program record for consecutive wins at 16. They can also get their 20th win of the season. On February 2.

Here’s a list of Tennessee teams that did not win 20 games in the regular season:

  • 2003: Ron Slay’s senior year, robbed on Selection Sunday
  • 2009: Won the SEC East, came closer to winning the SEC Tournament than any Tennessee team in the last 40 years
  • 2011: Made the NCAA Tournament despite Bruce Pearl being suspended like 35 games over BBQ.
  • 2012: NIT one seed in Cuonzo Martin’s first year
  • 2013: NIT one seed in Cuonzo Martin’s second year

This is life now.

Go Vols.

A Recent History of #1 Seeds & Trying to Get Back to Columbia

We’re less attuned to it at number one, but teams hovering around the top five taking a loss continues to be a big deal. We’re focused on staying atop the AP poll right now, but the real chase is for the four number one seeds (and, if Tennessee continues to play well, the hunt for the number one overall seed and the Columbia/Louisville road to the Final Four). This weekend it was #6 Michigan State, dropped by 10 at Purdue.

This is oversimplification and using too much football logic for basketball, but until everyone has at least four losses or so, it’s helpful to look at things this way:

  • One-Loss Teams: Tennessee, Virginia, Michigan (plus Nevada and Houston)
  • Two-Loss Teams: Duke, Gonzaga (plus Buffalo)
  • Three-Loss Teams: Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, LSU, Cincinnati, Marquette (plus five mid-majors)

Here are the number one seeds from the last three years:

YearTeamLosses
2018Virginia2
2018Villanova4
2018Kansas7
2018Xavier5
2017Villanova3
2017Kansas4
2017North Carolina7
2017Gonzaga1
2016Kansas4
2016North Carolina6
2016Virginia7
2016Oregon6

The average one seed in the last three years has 4.67 losses, an even five if you remove Gonzaga from the equation. 2016 and beyond is a good measure, because it includes all the major conference expansion, and keeps an anomaly from 2015 out of the equation, when all four one seeds had nine total losses. Remember, these numbers include conference tournaments, when most teams will take an additional loss.

As we turn toward February, six teams continue to separate themselves from the pack: Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan, Michigan State, Tennessee, and Virginia. There’s some distance between these six (and Virginia and everyone else) in KenPom. They’re the top six teams in the polls and the Bracket Matrix. Three blue bloods – Kansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina – could still get hot and make their way onto the one line, but are a step behind for now. Kentucky has the best chance there, with only three losses to four for Kansas and UNC, head-to-head wins over both, and two shots at the number one team in the nation. But KenPom still currently projects all of the top six to go to their conference tournaments with between three and five losses.

Long way to go, and the Vols can only handle the business in front of them. Tennessee doesn’t need any help to climb the polls, but any time a team like Michigan State loses, it helps them on Selection Sunday.

Hopefully not the last time we’re in Columbia

When league play began, Tennessee’s schedule looked solid: you always know what you’re getting into with Kentucky, the Gators were back in a home-and-home, and Vanderbilt & Missouri were on the bubble. South Carolina looked like an obvious rebuild, and maybe the worst team in the conference.

Instead, Vanderbilt and South Carolina have switched places: the Commodores have lost seven in a row, and the Gamecocks are 5-1 in league play.

These guys are battle tested, having faced Michigan and Virginia (back-to-back!) in the non-conference. And they didn’t get to 5-1 in the SEC because of their schedule: the Gamecocks have beaten Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn.

What’s been the difference for South Carolina in January opposed to their 5-7 start in the non-conference? For one, opponents cooled off from the arc a little: after giving up 100-of-268 (37.3%) from three in non-conference play, the Gamecocks are allowing just 47-of-144 (32.6%) in league play. South Carolina has also been the victim of some really good performances at the free throw line (via Sports Reference):

  • Stony Brook 19-of-23 (82.6%), Carolina lost by 2
  • Providence 28-of-34 (82.4%), Carolina lost by 9
  • LSU 32-of-35 (91.4%), Carolina lost by 22, but still, 32-of-35!
  • Oklahoma State 23-of-29 (79.3%), Carolina lost by 4

As you can see, that’s a lot of free throw attempts. This may not be what you associate with a Frank Martin team, but South Carolina will get up and go: 26th in tempo overall, and fastest in the SEC in average offensive possession length. As a result, they foul a lot and get fouled a lot.

Tennessee put Lamonte Turner in the starting lineup against West Virginia; he clearly liked it with a sizzling 8-of-10 from the field and 23 points in 33 minutes. Yves Pons scaled back to only 10 minutes. So right now Tennessee is giving six players 25-32 minutes, basically playing a primary lineup with Kyle Alexander and the three guard crunch-time lineup from last year. I haven’t seen the Vols look fatigued yet, which is something worth keeping an eye on. If you’re in good enough shape for a glorified six-man rotation, the biggest problem obviously becomes foul trouble. And that we’ve seen plenty of this season.

Any given game could come down to what the Vols get from Yves Pons and John Fulkerson in extended minutes if someone else is in foul trouble. That may seem like a minor thing to worry about now, but it becomes a big worry if it happens in the tournament. In our own history, we’ve seen Tennessee on the other side of beating an elite team playing a short bench: the Vols don’t have anyone as talented as Evan Turner, but Tennessee beat that Ohio State team by getting more from their 10-man rotation than Ohio State got from its glorified six. In an up-tempo game with a Gamecock team prone to foul and get fouled, we might get another look at how the Vols function when one or more of those top six have to stay off the floor for longer periods of time. File it away.

South Carolina, of course, is a lot of Chris Silva – 13.1 points and 6.9 rebounds in only 24.7 minutes, because he too can’t stay out of foul trouble – but freshman A.J. Lawson is giving them quite a bit as well with 13.2 points. As a freshman playing fast, his shot selection is sometimes an issue (averaging more than five threes a game despite shooting 29.9% from the arc). But we’ve already seen Tennessee catch a cold-shooting team on a hot night.

Despite the 5-1 start, South Carolina is a very long way from the bubble if the NET ratings work at all the same way as RPI. The Gamecocks are currently 111th in NET. Best way to climb the ladder, of course, is beat the number one team in the country. As we enter week two atop the polls, the Vols should have a better idea of what kind of energy and performance they’ll get from every opponent, especially on the road. This team should be playing with more confidence than Vanderbilt and West Virginia as well. KenPom likes the Vols by a dozen, but the Vegas line is only -8.5.

Earlier start tonight: 6:30 PM on the SEC Network. Go Vols.

Does the difference between a 1-seed and a 2-seed matter?

Once upon a time, the Tennessee Vols basketball team was ranked No. 1 in the nation for two straight weeks. Hey, that’s about as rare as a woo-less Rocky Top, so it was cause for celebration.

But honestly, the AP and Coaches Polls matter as much to college basketball as the points in Whose Line is it Anyway. Not only do they have zero impact on the crowning of the national champion, they’re not even considered by the all-important folks sending out the save-the-dates come March.

Nope. The only thing that matters in college basketball is getting into the Big Dance and getting a cushy spot in the bracket. But is there really much of a difference between a 1-seed and a 2-seed? I’m going to repeat that question now as a heading because after all, it’s what this post is all about. Duh.

Do 1-seeds do any better in the Tournament than 2-seeds?

A lot of stuff can happen late in the season just prior to Selection Sunday, but how important is it for fans to root for their team to earn a No. 1 seed?

Pretty important, as it turns out. Here’s a look at the seeds of the winners, the runners-up, and other Final Four participants since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985:

And here’s how all of that data breaks down into categories:

Whoa. A full 62% of the winners were No. 1 seeds, and there’s a huge drop off for 2-seeds, who won the whole enchilada only 15% of the time. The advantage of seeding for the rest of the Final Four field isn’t quite as pronounced, but it’s there, and it’s significant.

Sure, every once in a while some 11-seed will crash the party with a scrappy nun in tow and scare the pants off everybody, but usually the final weekend features the No Surprises All-Star team. And more often than not, the team cutting down the net in April is one that was sitting pretty on the top line on Selection Sunday.

Josh Dobbs, Grant Williams, Josiah James…Keon Johnson/Walker Kessler next?

The national media continues to marvel at what Coach Rick Barnes has built at Tennessee and never fails to mention that it’s been done without highly ranked recruits.  However, as Vol fans know that has started to change, first with the signing of current redshirt(ing) freshman big man DJ Burns, a 4-star PF who reclassified from the 2019 class and signed this past year.  Following up on that, the Vols inked 5-star Josiah James as the headliner in the 2019 class.  Importantly, while Barnes is absolutely elevating the level of prospect he’s chasing, he’s not deviating from the type of prospect that he wants: high character kids who fit not only the system Barnes wants to play but also the culture that Barnes and his staff have built. 

And while Coach Rick Barnes looks to be trying to build the Tennessee basketball program in the mold of a UVA or Michigan (or even Duke before Coach K went to the 1-and-done dark side), he’s at a competitive disadvantage when it comes to the relative academic perception of UT vs. those schools.  That’s just a fact, and though it can be countered with advantages Tennessee has over those programs in terms of facilities (also here) and fan support, for particular recruits – again, the kind of elite recruits that those types of programs are chasing and for whom Barnes now has Tennessee in the mix – the academic reputation can be a differentiator when choosing a school.

That said, there are some very recent high profile examples of Volunteer student athletes – Josh Dobbs and Grant Williams specifically – who were very much focused on academics coming out of high school and have excelled at an incredibly high level – and in a very high profile way – while also becoming Volunteer legends in their respective sports.  As it relates to the basketball program, Williams is on his way to becoming second to only NBA Hall of Famer Bernard King in terms of Tennessee basketball all-time greats while at the same time constantly being featured for his off the field prowess every time Tennessee plays on national TV (which is a lot these days).  Like Dobbs before him, Williams is a shining example of what the University of Tennessee can do for a special student athlete who excels both on and off the court.

No doubt James heard that same pitch from Barnes and Tennessee when they were recruiting the 5-star combo guard from the prestigious Porter Gaud School in Charleston, SC.  He’s not your typical 5-star, and therefore is the kind of elite player that Barnes is willing to recruit.  He doesn’t come with an entourage and his recruitment, though it featured a handful of blue bloods like Duke, wasn’t your typical shady business that particular coaches or schools (including at least a couple in the state of Tennessee) would be willing to get their hands dirty in but Barnes will have nothing to do with.  Barnes sold family and fit, and there’s no doubt that Williams’ success on and off the court was a big part of that pitch.  James represents a continuation of the model Tennessee student-athlete that Dobbs and Williams have built, but now with the kind of recruiting pedigree that Tennessee basketball has rarely seen in its history. 

James signed on with the Vols after one big season at Tennessee from Barnes.  And although the 2019 class may or may not be full the 2020 class is where Tennessee could really take a step in terms of landing multiple elite players and continue to validate its rise as a nascent basketball power.  That’s a class that will have seen not just last season’s surprising 26-9 SEC championship team but also this season, in which the Vols have been a national darling all year, playing against then #1 Kansas in Brooklyn (after beating now Top 10 Louisville), against then #1 Gonzaga in Phoenix, and of course rising to #1 right now. 

Among others (including fellow 5-star Jaden Springer, who plays for former Tennessee point guard Bobby Maze’s B.Maze Elite AAU program, and Memphis product SG Matthew Murrell, another bigtime academic kid as well), the Vols have focused their 2020 recruiting efforts on two prospects who very much fit the Dobbs/Williams/James mold: Wing Keon Johnson from Bell Buckle, TN and PF/C Walker Kessler.  Both Johnson and Kessler are being courted by the likes of UVA and Michigan, while Johnson has local academic power Vanderbilt as a finalist and Kessler also has Duke and UNC hot on his trail. 

The Vols appear to be in very strong shape with Johnson, who has visited Knoxville a few times already including for an official visit in October and then again in early January for the Vols’ absolute annihilation of UGA.  He also took in Tennessee’s come from behind win last week in Nashville against Vanderbilt in which half of Vandy’s Memorial Gymnasium was Orange and Williams went off for 43 points.  Kessler, who could possibly reclassify to the 2019 class – a scenario in which Tennessee would absolutely make room for him – has already taken official visits to Michigan and UVA and is set to trip to Duke this coming weekend.  The Vols are hoping to get him to Knoxville for an official visit the following weekend when they host Florida in front of yet another sold out Thompson-Boiling Arena crowd of over 20,000.  From there he’ll likely start to narrow things down and at the same time make a decision on which class he’ll be a part of. 

Without a doubt Kessler will get the same pitch that Burns (who also was heavily sought after by UVA) and James each got, and then Johnson heard as well on his official visit: “Come be a part of something special we’re building here at Tennessee.  Be a part of this culture we’ve created.  We’re winning at a very high level and are set up to continue to do so.  Yes, Duke and UVA are great schools.  But we can get you where you want to be off the court too.  Just ask Josh Dobbs.  Ask Grant Williams*.  Ask Josiah James**.”  That’s a message that is resonating, and as Barnes and Tennessee continue to win at this level and establish the program as a year-in-year-out contender they’ll continue to build the right way with the right kinds of kids.  Johnson and Kessler – and perhaps some combination of Springer/Murrell/Stone/Samson Ruthentsev and others – are the next in line.

* Grant will probably be his host, he’s that invested in the program

**James purposely took another unofficial visit to Tennessee the weekend Keon Johnson was on his official just to be around him – he’s already that invested himself

Vols Recruiting: Almost There

Some thoughts headed into the penultimate weekend before the February Signing Day

Pruitt Learning Danger of Reaching

As the final two weeks before the February National Signing Day wind down, Tennessee and its fans find themselves in a situation they have never been in before.  After signing 19 players in December and then adding two high profile transfers in former 5-stars DL Aubrey Solomon from Michigan and ATH Deangelo Gibbs from UGA, Tennessee finds itself with very few spots to fill and (fortunately) in great shape for some outstanding players.  OL Darnell Wright and LBs Henry To’oto’to and Chris Russell all look to be greater than 50/50 shots for the Vols and without a doubt having a spot reserved for them in Knoxville.  Those are without a doubt the top choices for Tennessee.

This is a much different position than Coach Jeremy Pruitt and Co. were in at this time last year, as the new staff scrambled to fill its initial class.  In the end, Tennessee signed a handful of potential impact players like LB JJ Peterson, DL John Mincey and Kurrott Garland, and S Treveon Flowers.  However, after swinging and missing on multiple 5-stars like two California-based DBs that signed with Southern Cal as well as LB Quay Walker (UGA), Tennessee frankly reached for a handful of late signees in DB Kenneth George and WR Cedric Tillman and then grad transfers RB Madre London and QB Keller Chryst.  Tillman in particular at least has the measurables to project as an SEC-level contributor at WR, and one could make a case that Chryst was needed given the lack of depth behind Jarrett Guarantano.  And let’s be clear, especially in this case hindsight is 20/20, as Guarantano ended up having a good year and stayed healthy enough to where Chryst’s appearances could 100% have been taken by Will McBride without making a difference in a single win or loss in 2018 for Tennessee. 

However, because of these personnel decisions – and including the later addition of CB Bryce Thompson to the 2018 class and then the two new transfers Solomon and Gibbs, all no-brainers and potential program changers – Pruitt and Tennessee find themselves likely unable to take some really good players that would like to be Vols:

Memphis DL Kristian Williams in particular is pretty obviously waiting on the green light from Tennessee, and though he has some good alternatives he seems likely to wait until Signing Day before inking with anyone else.

For however Tennessee feels about current DL commitment Leddarrius Cox – and while that’s unclear the real interest from Auburn and Ole Miss shows he’s at least an SEC-level DL – he would like to sign with Tennessee.

Then there’s DB Jammie Robinson, who at worst has Tennessee in the mix with Auburn, South Carolina and Kentucky but absolutely could potentially choose Tennessee as his leader pending scholarship availability.

Even 5-star WR George Pickens, an Auburn commitment who’s still looking around, might not be getting the full-court press from Tennessee that he otherwise would given the lack of spots and the potential that he might not qualify.  That remains to be seen of course as he is so damn good.

And finally there’s South Carolina JUCO DL commitment Jahkeem Green (more on him below) who also has some grade concerns but is likely a plug-and-play DL for either Tennessee or South Carolina should he get into school.  Volquest.com broke the news that he’ll be OV’ig in Knoxville this weekend, but again with the lack of room it’s to be determined how hard Tennessee can really push.  That said, there is some real fear from the Carolina side here.

The good news is that the 2019 class will feature exactly zero reaches, and there isn’t one signee or transfer who you’d definitively trade out for one of the guys left on the board not named Wright/To’oto’to/Russell. It’s quite simply a very good-to-outstanding class that massively upgrades the talent and depth across the 2019 roster as compared to a year ago.  Further, should Tennessee end up being able to monkey with the numbers in order to fit more than three signees into this class, the other good news is that the players above are absolutely high quality players that no one will be looking back at in January 2020 lamenting Tennessee taking them.

Similarly, as we first floated a month ago, it seems like the potential for Anthony Harris blueshirting – should he qualify – is very likely. Harris is a bonafide stud while he could play on either side of the ball as a S or a WR the electric athlete has the kind of size and ball skills that Pruitt covets in the secondary. Were the Vols to go that route with Harris and add him to the 2020 class numbers along with Solomon and likely anyone else they add past three more signees, they’d simply be adding another bigtime player to the roster, in stark contrast to reaching for warm bodies.

Pruitt playing chess while Muschamp plays checkers

With the news that Tennessee is bringing in the aforementioned JUCO DL Green, this is yet another prospect for whom Pruitt is playing games with South Carolina coach Will Muschamp.  First Pruitt snuck in and stole future All-SEC CB Bryce Thompson out from under Muschamp’s nose.  Then, in this cycle Pruitt offered ATH Xavier Leggette, who South Carolina was hoping to blueshirt but was forced to sign in December for fear of Tennessee taking him.  Finally, with Green, Carolina was hoping that his longtime commitment would keep others from offering him while they figure out his academic situation and potentially sign someone else with that 2018 spot.  However, Pruitt could once again – at worst – be forcing Mushcamp’s hand.  At best, because Green is an outstanding JUCO DL with the ability to play at a high level right away in the SEC, Tennessee can use this fact, along with the recent departure of Carolina DL Coach Lance Thompson and the Vols longtime interest (they offered last summer), Tennessee can figure out the numbers enough to sign him and get him into school.

Thoughts on Chris Russell

There’s been lots of speculation about Dyersburg, TN LB Chris Russell, for whom Tennessee entered the picture late relative to Arkansas and who also took an OV to Texas A&M last weekend.  The wildest of that speculation is that some think he’s a lock to Arkansas and that Tennessee is in 3rd.  I don’t buy it for a second.  Here’s why:

Parents like Tennessee: Check

Lives in a very pro-Tennessee town: Check

Vol staff not taking him for granted and working him very hard: Check

Final OV: Check

Easy path to early playing time: Check

While I understand why Arkansas in particular is a factor here, as they boast a well-respected DC in John Chavis and have also been recruiting him longer than just about anyone, I’m willing to predict that – unless Russell commits to Arkansas this weekend and cancels his OV to Tennessee for the following (and final) weekend – he signs with the Vols. 

Tennessee vs West Virginia Preview

After three consecutive wins for the Big 12 from 2014-16 (and I’m sure a sense of, “Why are we doing this?” from their league), the SEC forged a tie in 2017 and won this event 6-4 last season. The bad news: three of the SEC’s six ranked teams – #16 Auburn, #22 Mississippi State, and red-hot #25 LSU – will not participate this year. For reasons beyond me, former Big 12 member Missouri has sat out four years in a row.

The Vols sat out the first year in 2014, but are 3-1 since then: wins over Kansas State in Knoxville for Donnie Tyndall in 2015 and Rick Barnes in 2017, a loss at TCU in Barnes’ first year, and a beat down of Iowa State in Ames last season. Those teams aren’t the names you get excited about playing in this thing. We thought this year would change that…but West Virginia hasn’t exactly held up their end of the bargain.

But first, let’s talk about Tennessee’s defense.

Good Isn’t Good Enough When You’re #1

If we’re trying to win the whole thing, which I’m pretty sure we are when atop the polls, I keep coming back to something I first saw on Villanova’s SB Nation blog last February: with the exception of 7-seed champion UConn in 2014, every national champion in the KenPom era (2002-present) has finished the year in the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Tennessee flirted with this for much of last season, ultimately finishing sixth in defense and 36th in offense. And the Vols were there for much of the early portion of this season, but are currently second in offense and 34th in defense.

The change on the offensive end has been tremendous, was so before Grant Williams scored 43 the other night, and continues to deserve press and praise. Anyone who says they envisioned Tennessee turning into that kind of offensive threat while shooting 35.7% from the arc is a liar.

It seems strange to type, “Why has the defense gotten worse?” After all, it’s hard to think in terms of “worse” when you’re still 34th nationally in defensive efficiency and 30th in effective field goal percentage allowed. But what is most notably different right now?

  • Three-Point Shooting: throw out Georgia’s 1-for-20 performance in the league opener; the other five conference games rank in the top seven in percentage allowed beyond the arc. The other two are then-#1 Gonzaga and now-#23 Louisville. Vanderbilt’s 47.6% was a season-high, but it doesn’t stand alone: put the Commodores in there with Missouri, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama, and the Vols have allowed 50-of-127 (39.3%) from three in the last five games. That’s basically 10-of-25 per night. Will Warren has a good thread on the number of catch-and-shoot threes the Vols are allowing.
  • Trading Steals for Blocks: if you’re looking for the thing Tennessee is very best at, it’s still shot-blocking: 4.6% of Tennessee’s attempts get blocked, best in the nation, and the Vols send back 15.7% of opponent attempts, seventh nationally. That’s impressive, and fits the makeup of this team. I have no idea if this is happening on purpose or not, but being so good at the rim is correlating with a drop in efficiency in creating steals. Last year the Vols averaged 6.4 steals per game and took it away on 9.4% of opponent possessions, 104th nationally. This year the Vols average 5.8 steals per game despite playing at a faster pace, taking it away on 7.9% of opponent possessions, 255th nationally. Again: this is where the Vols miss James Daniel most. Is fatigue an issue here as well? It doesn’t seem that way watching games, but Jordan Bone is averaging 32 minutes after just 23 last year, and Lamonte Turner may still be playing his way back to 100% on both ends of the floor. The Vols have to get more from whoever is on opposing guards off the dribble.

The best offenses in the SEC belong, for the most part, to the best teams in the league. That means Tennessee’s defense won’t see a bunch of great offenses until the much-talked-about last three weeks of the season. Until then, the best offense they’ll face is the one coming here Saturday.

Avenge the Belk Kickoff!

West Virginia made three Sweet 16’s in the last four years, bounced by a one seed each time. They lost their two leading scorers to graduation, plus freshman Teddy Allen to transfer. Then they lost their leading returning scorer, center Sagaba Konate, to a knee injury in December; he could return this season, but no signs point to this weekend. In his absence 6’10” freshman Derek Culver has stepped in, and currently leads the Big 12 in defensive rebounding percentage.

If Tennessee is looking to improve defensively, here’s a good place to start: West Virginia has 249 assists to 289 turnovers this year. That’s more than 15 turnovers per game; they give it away on 21.3% of possessions and are especially vulnerable via steal, 341st nationally in steal percentage allowed (11.4% of possessions). Without Konate, 6’0″ guard James Bolden is the leading scorer at 12.8 per game, with 2.6 assists to 2.2 turnovers.

What West Virginia does well: get on the offensive glass (10th nationally), and get to the line (14th nationally). They will routinely run a 6’8″+ front line out there; 6’8″ senior Esa Ahmad is their best at getting to the stripe.

Their profile is not that different than Vanderbilt’s: injury derailed their hopes, mostly competitive but always on the wrong end in conference play. The Mountaineers lost to Texas Tech by three, at Texas by seven, at Kansas State by two and Oklahoma State by eight to open Big 12 play. Then they were blown out by 31 at TCU. But just when you wanted to write them off…they beat Kansas, something Tennessee did not do, 65-64 in Morgantown.

So, yes, KenPom likes the Vols by 18. That’s the mantle Tennessee has earned, even after the last two near-misses. We don’t want to get into that thing where we criticize every performance that isn’t a 20-point blowout just because we’re number one; there was plenty to enjoy from that win over Vanderbilt. Hopefully we find more of the same tomorrow.

Here’s the full schedule for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge:

  • #24 Iowa State at #20 Ole Miss – 12:00 PM – ESPN
  • Florida at TCU – 12:00 PM – ESPN2
  • Alabama at Baylor – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
  • Kansas State at Texas A&M – 2:00 PM – ESPN
  • Texas at Georgia – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
  • South Carolina at Oklahoma State – 2:00 PM – ESPNU
  • West Virginia at #1 Tennessee – 4:00 PM – ESPN
  • Vanderbilt at Oklahoma – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
  • #9 Kansas at #8 Kentucky – 6:00 PM – ESPN
  • Arkansas at #14 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN2

Worth reading 1.24.19: Grant Williams is The Man

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from Wes Rucker at 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Grant Williams Scores 43, Vols Beat Vandy in Overtime, via Gameday on Rocky Top
  2. Vols’ Bone, Bowden produce freelance magic in Vandy win, via 247Sports
  3. Everything Rick Barnes said after surviving at Vanderbilt, via 247Sports
  4. SEC Network on Twitter, via Twitter
  5. NCAA March Madness on Twitter, via Twitter
  6. Williams’ Record Performance Leads #1 Vols to 88-83 Win at Vanderbilt – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports
  7. Williams Named to Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Watch List – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports
https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/1088267409855840256

Behind the paywalls

Grant Williams Scores 43, Vols Beat Vandy in Overtime

This team wants to make sure you keep the media guide handy.

When Admiral Schofield put 30 on #1 Gonzaga, we called it the best performance of the post-Chris Lofton era. We mentioned Grant Williams’ 37 points in Memorial Gymnasium last season – the most for any Vol since Ron Slay’s 38 in 2003 – as a footnote. In his two games against Vanderbilt last year, Williams attempted 15 free throws each time.

I feel like any attempt to say something clever about what happened tonight is a disservice to its greatness. Here it is:

Grant Williams: 10-of-15 FG, 23-of-23 FT, 43 points, 8 rebounds, 4 blocks.

The school record for points at Tennessee is 51 by Tony White vs Auburn in 1987. White also had 49 against Florida State the same year. Ron Widby scored 50 against LSU in 1967. Carl Widseth scored 47 against Auburn in 1956.

Next on the list is 43 points, which is the career high of Allan Houston, Reggie Johnson, Bernard King, Ernie Grunfeld…and now, Grant Williams.

And #1 Tennessee beat Vanderbilt 88-83 in overtime.

Teams Won’t Lay Down For Tennessee

The Vols jumped Alabama 16-4 in the first eight minutes, Vanderbilt 15-2 in the first five minutes. Perhaps you, like me, were kicking back to enjoy another beat down.

It didn’t happen Saturday, and certainly didn’t happen tonight. Credit Vanderbilt; Alabama is on the bubble, but the Commodores were 0-5 in SEC play and staring swiftly down the barrel of 0-6 after those first five minutes. But what a difference being hot from three makes.

Vanderbilt was shooting 33% on the year from the arc coming in. In SEC play:

  • 6-of-20 (30%) vs Ole Miss
  • 6-of-25 (24%) at Georgia
  • 7-of-25 (28%) at Kentucky
  • 7-of-21 (33%) vs South Carolina
  • 5-of-19 (26%) vs Mississippi State

Tonight: 10-of-21 (48%). Aaron Nesmith, Saben Lee, Matt Ryan, and Joe Toye went 10-of-18.

It made a huge difference, and the Vols had no answer on the other end: 5-of-20 (25%) from the arc, including 0-for-6 from Admiral Schofield. It’s the same percentage the Vols shot against Alabama. Yet the Vols walked away winners both times.

There was some reffin’ going on in both games, no doubt. Tennessee benefitted from a lightning-fast travel call on John Petty against Bama, and a hook-but-maybe-not-a-hold, letter-of-the-law flagrant foul in the final minutes of regulation tonight. But if you’re looking for why Tennessee won, look to the guy who knocked down both those free throws, then immediately scored on the ensuing inbounds.

Also, before that sequence, with the Vols down five and in need of a spark, this happened:

https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/1088268365720944640

When Bone threw that ball, I swear I thought it was meant for Alexander. I’m glad we won to preserve a number one ranking, and I’m glad for Williams’ 43 points. But also, this dunk could not happen in a game Tennessee lost.

This game got bananas in the final minute, then again in overtime. But with the game on the line after a Saben Lee free throw put Vandy up one with 20 seconds to play, Grant Williams had one more and-one in him, then a great close out in the corner without fouling on a Vanderbilt three.

Vanderbilt shot way above their average, to their credit, and found ways to disrupt what Tennessee wanted to do. The Vols got nothing from Schofield offensively and stayed cold from the arc.

But Grant Williams was enough.

He scored all of Tennessee’s points in overtime (10) until Jordan Bone’s free throws with six seconds left. In the last ten minutes of regulation, he scored all of Tennessee’s points except Bowden’s dunk and Schofield’s runner. That’s 27 of Tennessee’s last 33 points in 15 minutes of game time.

That dude is going in the rafters. Tennessee plays on as number one.

How Not to Lose at Vanderbilt When Ranked Number One

If you’re looking for the best single performance from the last Tennessee team to reach number one, may I suggest the first meeting between the Vols and Commodores.

#6 Tennessee and #16 Vanderbilt met in Knoxville on January 17, 2008, more than a month before the Vols would eventually go to number one. The win that got them there was of obvious merit, beating #1 Memphis 66-62. But if you really wanted to see what the 2008 Vols could do, look to that first Vanderbilt game: an 80-60 blowout, featuring 18 points and 18 rebounds from Wayne Chism. It was a level-up game for #4, more proof he could also be the lead dog on a team with plenty of alpha in Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith, and Tyler Smith (who added 14 and 9 just for good measure). Vanderbilt shot 3-of-21 from the arc, missed 10 free throws, and turned it over 22 times.

All of that made it easy to forget they were still a Top 20 team when we ran into them the second time around.

The Vols won at Memphis in a 9:00 PM Saturday night tip, then played at #18 Vanderbilt in a 9:00 PM Tuesday tip. The Commodores raced to a 23-9 lead, but Tennessee got it back within three at halftime. The shooting made the longest memories – 32 points from Shan Foster, 25 from Chris Lofton – but going back through the box score and recap at ESPN.com, you find 51 total fouls and 69 total free throw attempts. Down the stretch, Tennessee could not defend without fouling, allowing Vanderbilt to always stay two possessions ahead. The Commodores won 72-69, chasing Tennessee off the number one ranking and, more costly, eventually off the number one seed line.

That Vanderbilt team was a four seed in the NCAA Tournament, their 26 wins the most in Kevin Stallings’ 17 years in Nashville. And in the tournament…they lost to Siena in the first round by 21.

Still: this Vanderbilt team is not that Vanderbilt team.

This Vanderbilt Team

Everything has to start with Darius Garland. The five-star freshman point guard was the 14th-highest rated player in the nation coming in from 247, and the second point guard behind Kentucky’s Ashton Hagans (who is playing like it right now). He injured his knee in the fifth game of the year and was lost for the season. The most recent NBA mock draft I can find still has him going seventh overall. It’s a huge loss.

Whatever momentum Vanderbilt gained by an 81-65 win over Arizona State on December 17 has evaporated in an 0-5 start to league play. They lost to Ole Miss by 10, Georgia by 19, Kentucky by nine, South Carolina by three, and Mississippi State by 16. In conference games the ‘Dores rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency (via KenPom); Tennessee is number one in both.

By the way, is anyone winning the Kevin Stallings-Vanderbilt divorce? Bryce Drew’s first team was the first in history to earn an at-large bid with 15 losses, then lost an 8-9 game to Northwestern by two points. That team graduated Luke Kornet, but brought back Matthew Fisher-Davis, Riley LaChance, and Jeff Roberson for their senior seasons in 2018. Fisher-Davis was lost for the year in mid-January, but Vandy was already 6-11 (1-4) at the time. They finished 12-20 (6-12). His 2018 recruiting class was ranked 13th nationally, but now without Garland they’re headed toward another sub-.500 year. Stallings, of course, went 16-17 (4-14) then 8-24 (0-18) at Pitt and was done.

Also, Vanderbilt’s luck ratings in KenPom since 2015: 345, 346, 292, 336, and currently 316.

If you want to stay on the right side of luck tonight, don’t put this team on the line. The Commodores are ninth in the nation in free throw rate. Their particular strengths here are Saben Lee, who runs the point in Garland’s absence, and Simi Shittu, an even-higher-rated 6’10” freshman who sees the ball a ton.

Vandy defends the three well in conference play, and doesn’t turn it over a ton. An early whistle going against the Vols is the quickest way the Commodores stay in this game. As Tennessee seeks to improve its defense overall, defending without fouling is a good place to start: the Vols are 226th nationally in opponent free throw rate.

But if it doesn’t happen at the line, it’s tough to see it happening for Vanderbilt. They’re giving up 55.7% from inside the arc in league play, and Tennessee’s offense has become a monster in that department. And last year Grant Williams had 37 in Nashville and 18 more in Knoxville, and attempted 15 free throws in each game. They had no answer for him last year, and I’m not sure one has presented itself this year. Vanderbilt should be a welcome match-up for Williams after facing Alabama.

Anybody can get up to play the number one team in the nation, and Vanderbilt can always get up to play Tennessee. And we won’t know exactly how the Vols will play with that #1 next to their name until we see it. But when you’re 0-5 in league play, you can also catch a case of the oh-no’s real quick. The 2008 Vols peaked just before Nashville. Let’s hope the 2019 version is just getting started.

7:00 PM ET, ESPN2. Go Vols.