Gameday on Rocky Top

Very, as it turns out. That’s where the Vols would be with a win tomorrow.

By my count, only seven SEC teams have started 8-0 in league play since 2000. Kentucky did it in 2003, 2005, 2012, and 2015. Florida did it in 2007, 2013, and 2014. Every one of those teams made the Elite Eight, four made the Final Four, and two won it all.

More rare in the SEC is a 20-1 start overall. Since 2000, John Calipari’s Kentucky teams have done it thrice:

• The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins 2010 team, which started 27-1 before losing at Tennessee on February 27. They lost in the Elite Eight.
• The Anthony Davis 2012 team, which started 32-1 before losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament finals. They won the title.
• The undefeated 2015 team, which started 38-0 before losing to Wisconsin in the Final Four.

There’s also a team I’d forgotten: the 2004 Mississippi State Bulldogs started 21-1 and finished the regular season 25-2 with a one-point loss to Kentucky and a four-point loss to Alabama. They lost to Vanderbilt by four in overtime in the first game of the SEC Tournament. Still, they earned a two seed as SEC Champions…and lost to Xavier in the second round by 15. Sometimes the story just doesn’t end the way you want it to. But if you’re looking for another example of how special this season is, consider that no Florida team in this century – a program with two titles, two other Final Four appearances, and four additional Elite Eight appearances since 2000 – has ever started a season 20-1.

Tennessee isn’t the only team with an easier path to the SEC title

Plenty of word count has been spilled for Tennessee’s back-loaded schedule, still two weeks away. The current average KenPom of Tennessee’s first 11 SEC opponents: 85.1. The current average of six of Tennessee’s final seven SEC opponents: 19.8 (plus the second game with Vanderbilt).

There was some thought that the Vols would be so far ahead of the pack through those first 11 games, it wouldn’t much matter. But two things have happened over the last couple weeks: Kentucky really got its act together, and LSU kept winning.

The Wildcats are now eighth in KenPom and a two seed in the Bracket Matrix; those two games should be the showdown we expected all along. But keep an eye on LSU, especially because of their schedule. Among these three contenders, here are the teams each one plays twice:

• Tennessee: Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt
• Kentucky: Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
• LSU: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas A&M

There’s clear separation in the difficulty of Kentucky’s league schedule and Tennessee’s. But LSU’s is the real gift: the Tigers don’t play any of the league’s top five teams in the Bracket Matrix twice (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, plus LSU themselves). They’re already 7-0 and could put up a really big number; KenPom projects the Vols to win the league at 15-3, but LSU’s projection is just one game behind.

For history, for what could be a surprisingly-tight league chase, and for the all-important one seeds…every game still counts. On to the Aggies.

Relegated to the Bottom

Last year Texas A&M started 11-1, its only loss to Arizona. They were sixth in KenPom. And then they started league play 0-5.

They got healthy and rallied, winning seven of their last ten to earn a seven seed in the NCAA Tournament. They shocked North Carolina in the second round with a 21-point win, then got rocked by Michigan in the Sweet 16 by 27.

And then everyone left, especially everyone tall. 6’10” Robert Williams is with the Boston Celtics, 6’10” Tyler Davis also turned pro early, and 6’10” Tonny Trocha-Morelos graduated. Guard Duane Wilson also graduated, and 6’9″ DJ Hogg is in the G-League. Then guard Admon Gilder, who was supposed to lead this team, had a blood clot issue that has sidelined him for the entire season.

So, yeah: the Aggies are 8-11 (1-6), though they did beat Kansas State in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge last weekend. But they are part of a fast-growing basement in the league this year, victimized by injury to their best players (Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M) and the success of the rest of the league. The SEC could be starting to see some of what happens in the ACC regularly: when the top 70% of your league is so good, the bottom tier can look really bad. I’d imagine you can get really good odds, if they exist, on the first day of the SEC Tournament featuring Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Georgia. Those four are currently 3-25 in league play.

Texas A&M is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in college basketball: 28.5%, 341st nationally, and 26.2% in SEC play. They also give up the highest percentage from the arc (37.1%) in league play. That’s a quick and easy recipe for disaster. Because of their lack of size they also get pounded on the glass, and are 345th in giving up blocked shots. All of this is bad news when playing the number one team in the country.

They do defend well without fouling, best in the SEC so far in that department. If they can take the free throw line away from Tennessee, perhaps there’s a path to keeping it interesting. But this one just looks like it has bad news written all over it for Texas A&M.

It’s a later start than what we’ve been playing: Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN. Here’s hoping February treats us well.

Go Vols.

Jordan Bowden tweaked his knee pregame and did not play. Kyle Alexander was in foul trouble early and often, finishing with two points. That opened the door for Chris Silva, who had 28 points and 10 rebounds. Columbia was rocking as South Carolina looked to go to 6-1 in league play.

The Vols won by 22.

Tennessee’s nine-point halftime lead was slowly whittled to two with 13 minutes to play. The Vols hit an 11-3 run over the next four minutes, and a Derrick Walker and-one made it 14 at the under eight timeout. With two of Tennessee’s top six players down, guys like Walker and John Fulkerson (six points, three rebounds) stepped up. When South Carolina threatened, Tennessee completely erased it in less than five minutes.

A game that felt like it could expose Tennessee’s weaknesses and become the loss that teaches a lesson…just wasn’t. After the first seven minutes, the Vols led by multiple possessions until the aforementioned South Carolina run, then immediately pushed it back out again. And ultimately, Columbia only rocked for free Chick-fil-A.

Rick Barnes: "I think we've got through the toughest part of being No. 1 ranked. The attention around it."

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) January 30, 2019

This is plenty of fun, but the real goal remains twofold: generally, keep getting better, and specifically, get as far up the bracket as possible. That starts with a one seed and ends with a path to Minneapolis that goes back through Columbia and then Louisville. The Vols are more likely to have some losses left in them than not, and on paper tonight easily could’ve been one without Bowden and Alexander. The fact that it wasn’t, at all, is a testament to the reality of this team’s goals.

Grant Williams scoring 23 points isn’t news these days, but Admiral Schofield’s return to form was. This was a vintage PB&J game: 18-of-32 from the floor, 10-of-13 from the line, 47 points and 18 rebounds combined. Lamonte Turner stayed hot with 13 points and three more threes. And Jordan Bone added 19 points and nine assists.

This is apparently life now, and life is good. It goes to Texas A&M next, where the Vols can set the program record for consecutive wins at 16. They can also get their 20th win of the season. On February 2.

Here’s a list of Tennessee teams that did not win 20 games in the regular season:

• 2003: Ron Slay’s senior year, robbed on Selection Sunday
• 2009: Won the SEC East, came closer to winning the SEC Tournament than any Tennessee team in the last 40 years
• 2011: Made the NCAA Tournament despite Bruce Pearl being suspended like 35 games over BBQ.
• 2012: NIT one seed in Cuonzo Martin’s first year
• 2013: NIT one seed in Cuonzo Martin’s second year

This is life now.

Go Vols.

We’re less attuned to it at number one, but teams hovering around the top five taking a loss continues to be a big deal. We’re focused on staying atop the AP poll right now, but the real chase is for the four number one seeds (and, if Tennessee continues to play well, the hunt for the number one overall seed and the Columbia/Louisville road to the Final Four). This weekend it was #6 Michigan State, dropped by 10 at Purdue.

This is oversimplification and using too much football logic for basketball, but until everyone has at least four losses or so, it’s helpful to look at things this way:

• One-Loss Teams: Tennessee, Virginia, Michigan (plus Nevada and Houston)
• Two-Loss Teams: Duke, Gonzaga (plus Buffalo)
• Three-Loss Teams: Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, LSU, Cincinnati, Marquette (plus five mid-majors)

Here are the number one seeds from the last three years:

Year	Team	Losses
2018	Virginia	2
2018	Villanova	4
2018	Kansas	7
2018	Xavier	5
2017	Villanova	3
2017	Kansas	4
2017	North Carolina	7
2017	Gonzaga	1
2016	Kansas	4
2016	North Carolina	6
2016	Virginia	7
2016	Oregon	6

The average one seed in the last three years has 4.67 losses, an even five if you remove Gonzaga from the equation. 2016 and beyond is a good measure, because it includes all the major conference expansion, and keeps an anomaly from 2015 out of the equation, when all four one seeds had nine total losses. Remember, these numbers include conference tournaments, when most teams will take an additional loss.

As we turn toward February, six teams continue to separate themselves from the pack: Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan, Michigan State, Tennessee, and Virginia. There’s some distance between these six (and Virginia and everyone else) in KenPom. They’re the top six teams in the polls and the Bracket Matrix. Three blue bloods – Kansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina – could still get hot and make their way onto the one line, but are a step behind for now. Kentucky has the best chance there, with only three losses to four for Kansas and UNC, head-to-head wins over both, and two shots at the number one team in the nation. But KenPom still currently projects all of the top six to go to their conference tournaments with between three and five losses.

Long way to go, and the Vols can only handle the business in front of them. Tennessee doesn’t need any help to climb the polls, but any time a team like Michigan State loses, it helps them on Selection Sunday.

Hopefully not the last time we’re in Columbia

When league play began, Tennessee’s schedule looked solid: you always know what you’re getting into with Kentucky, the Gators were back in a home-and-home, and Vanderbilt & Missouri were on the bubble. South Carolina looked like an obvious rebuild, and maybe the worst team in the conference.

Instead, Vanderbilt and South Carolina have switched places: the Commodores have lost seven in a row, and the Gamecocks are 5-1 in league play.

These guys are battle tested, having faced Michigan and Virginia (back-to-back!) in the non-conference. And they didn’t get to 5-1 in the SEC because of their schedule: the Gamecocks have beaten Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn.

What’s been the difference for South Carolina in January opposed to their 5-7 start in the non-conference? For one, opponents cooled off from the arc a little: after giving up 100-of-268 (37.3%) from three in non-conference play, the Gamecocks are allowing just 47-of-144 (32.6%) in league play. South Carolina has also been the victim of some really good performances at the free throw line (via Sports Reference):

• Stony Brook 19-of-23 (82.6%), Carolina lost by 2
• Providence 28-of-34 (82.4%), Carolina lost by 9
• LSU 32-of-35 (91.4%), Carolina lost by 22, but still, 32-of-35!
• Oklahoma State 23-of-29 (79.3%), Carolina lost by 4

As you can see, that’s a lot of free throw attempts. This may not be what you associate with a Frank Martin team, but South Carolina will get up and go: 26th in tempo overall, and fastest in the SEC in average offensive possession length. As a result, they foul a lot and get fouled a lot.

Tennessee put Lamonte Turner in the starting lineup against West Virginia; he clearly liked it with a sizzling 8-of-10 from the field and 23 points in 33 minutes. Yves Pons scaled back to only 10 minutes. So right now Tennessee is giving six players 25-32 minutes, basically playing a primary lineup with Kyle Alexander and the three guard crunch-time lineup from last year. I haven’t seen the Vols look fatigued yet, which is something worth keeping an eye on. If you’re in good enough shape for a glorified six-man rotation, the biggest problem obviously becomes foul trouble. And that we’ve seen plenty of this season.

Any given game could come down to what the Vols get from Yves Pons and John Fulkerson in extended minutes if someone else is in foul trouble. That may seem like a minor thing to worry about now, but it becomes a big worry if it happens in the tournament. In our own history, we’ve seen Tennessee on the other side of beating an elite team playing a short bench: the Vols don’t have anyone as talented as Evan Turner, but Tennessee beat that Ohio State team by getting more from their 10-man rotation than Ohio State got from its glorified six. In an up-tempo game with a Gamecock team prone to foul and get fouled, we might get another look at how the Vols function when one or more of those top six have to stay off the floor for longer periods of time. File it away.

South Carolina, of course, is a lot of Chris Silva – 13.1 points and 6.9 rebounds in only 24.7 minutes, because he too can’t stay out of foul trouble – but freshman A.J. Lawson is giving them quite a bit as well with 13.2 points. As a freshman playing fast, his shot selection is sometimes an issue (averaging more than five threes a game despite shooting 29.9% from the arc). But we’ve already seen Tennessee catch a cold-shooting team on a hot night.

Despite the 5-1 start, South Carolina is a very long way from the bubble if the NET ratings work at all the same way as RPI. The Gamecocks are currently 111th in NET. Best way to climb the ladder, of course, is beat the number one team in the country. As we enter week two atop the polls, the Vols should have a better idea of what kind of energy and performance they’ll get from every opponent, especially on the road. This team should be playing with more confidence than Vanderbilt and West Virginia as well. KenPom likes the Vols by a dozen, but the Vegas line is only -8.5.

Earlier start tonight: 6:30 PM on the SEC Network. Go Vols.

Once upon a time, the Tennessee Vols basketball team was ranked No. 1 in the nation for two straight weeks. Hey, that’s about as rare as a woo-less Rocky Top, so it was cause for celebration.

But honestly, the AP and Coaches Polls matter as much to college basketball as the points in Whose Line is it Anyway. Not only do they have zero impact on the crowning of the national champion, they’re not even considered by the all-important folks sending out the save-the-dates come March.

Nope. The only thing that matters in college basketball is getting into the Big Dance and getting a cushy spot in the bracket. But is there really much of a difference between a 1-seed and a 2-seed? I’m going to repeat that question now as a heading because after all, it’s what this post is all about. Duh.

Do 1-seeds do any better in the Tournament than 2-seeds?

A lot of stuff can happen late in the season just prior to Selection Sunday, but how important is it for fans to root for their team to earn a No. 1 seed?

Pretty important, as it turns out. Here’s a look at the seeds of the winners, the runners-up, and other Final Four participants since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985:

And here’s how all of that data breaks down into categories:

Whoa. A full 62% of the winners were No. 1 seeds, and there’s a huge drop off for 2-seeds, who won the whole enchilada only 15% of the time. The advantage of seeding for the rest of the Final Four field isn’t quite as pronounced, but it’s there, and it’s significant.

Sure, every once in a while some 11-seed will crash the party with a scrappy nun in tow and scare the pants off everybody, but usually the final weekend features the No Surprises All-Star team. And more often than not, the team cutting down the net in April is one that was sitting pretty on the top line on Selection Sunday.

After three consecutive wins for the Big 12 from 2014-16 (and I’m sure a sense of, “Why are we doing this?” from their league), the SEC forged a tie in 2017 and won this event 6-4 last season. The bad news: three of the SEC’s six ranked teams – #16 Auburn, #22 Mississippi State, and red-hot #25 LSU – will not participate this year. For reasons beyond me, former Big 12 member Missouri has sat out four years in a row.

The Vols sat out the first year in 2014, but are 3-1 since then: wins over Kansas State in Knoxville for Donnie Tyndall in 2015 and Rick Barnes in 2017, a loss at TCU in Barnes’ first year, and a beat down of Iowa State in Ames last season. Those teams aren’t the names you get excited about playing in this thing. We thought this year would change that…but West Virginia hasn’t exactly held up their end of the bargain.

But first, let’s talk about Tennessee’s defense.

Good Isn’t Good Enough When You’re #1

If we’re trying to win the whole thing, which I’m pretty sure we are when atop the polls, I keep coming back to something I first saw on Villanova’s SB Nation blog last February: with the exception of 7-seed champion UConn in 2014, every national champion in the KenPom era (2002-present) has finished the year in the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Tennessee flirted with this for much of last season, ultimately finishing sixth in defense and 36th in offense. And the Vols were there for much of the early portion of this season, but are currently second in offense and 34th in defense.

The change on the offensive end has been tremendous, was so before Grant Williams scored 43 the other night, and continues to deserve press and praise. Anyone who says they envisioned Tennessee turning into that kind of offensive threat while shooting 35.7% from the arc is a liar.

It seems strange to type, “Why has the defense gotten worse?” After all, it’s hard to think in terms of “worse” when you’re still 34th nationally in defensive efficiency and 30th in effective field goal percentage allowed. But what is most notably different right now?

• Three-Point Shooting: throw out Georgia’s 1-for-20 performance in the league opener; the other five conference games rank in the top seven in percentage allowed beyond the arc. The other two are then-#1 Gonzaga and now-#23 Louisville. Vanderbilt’s 47.6% was a season-high, but it doesn’t stand alone: put the Commodores in there with Missouri, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama, and the Vols have allowed 50-of-127 (39.3%) from three in the last five games. That’s basically 10-of-25 per night. Will Warren has a good thread on the number of catch-and-shoot threes the Vols are allowing.
• Trading Steals for Blocks: if you’re looking for the thing Tennessee is very best at, it’s still shot-blocking: 4.6% of Tennessee’s attempts get blocked, best in the nation, and the Vols send back 15.7% of opponent attempts, seventh nationally. That’s impressive, and fits the makeup of this team. I have no idea if this is happening on purpose or not, but being so good at the rim is correlating with a drop in efficiency in creating steals. Last year the Vols averaged 6.4 steals per game and took it away on 9.4% of opponent possessions, 104th nationally. This year the Vols average 5.8 steals per game despite playing at a faster pace, taking it away on 7.9% of opponent possessions, 255th nationally. Again: this is where the Vols miss James Daniel most. Is fatigue an issue here as well? It doesn’t seem that way watching games, but Jordan Bone is averaging 32 minutes after just 23 last year, and Lamonte Turner may still be playing his way back to 100% on both ends of the floor. The Vols have to get more from whoever is on opposing guards off the dribble.

The best offenses in the SEC belong, for the most part, to the best teams in the league. That means Tennessee’s defense won’t see a bunch of great offenses until the much-talked-about last three weeks of the season. Until then, the best offense they’ll face is the one coming here Saturday.

Avenge the Belk Kickoff!

West Virginia made three Sweet 16’s in the last four years, bounced by a one seed each time. They lost their two leading scorers to graduation, plus freshman Teddy Allen to transfer. Then they lost their leading returning scorer, center Sagaba Konate, to a knee injury in December; he could return this season, but no signs point to this weekend. In his absence 6’10” freshman Derek Culver has stepped in, and currently leads the Big 12 in defensive rebounding percentage.

If Tennessee is looking to improve defensively, here’s a good place to start: West Virginia has 249 assists to 289 turnovers this year. That’s more than 15 turnovers per game; they give it away on 21.3% of possessions and are especially vulnerable via steal, 341st nationally in steal percentage allowed (11.4% of possessions). Without Konate, 6’0″ guard James Bolden is the leading scorer at 12.8 per game, with 2.6 assists to 2.2 turnovers.

What West Virginia does well: get on the offensive glass (10th nationally), and get to the line (14th nationally). They will routinely run a 6’8″+ front line out there; 6’8″ senior Esa Ahmad is their best at getting to the stripe.

Their profile is not that different than Vanderbilt’s: injury derailed their hopes, mostly competitive but always on the wrong end in conference play. The Mountaineers lost to Texas Tech by three, at Texas by seven, at Kansas State by two and Oklahoma State by eight to open Big 12 play. Then they were blown out by 31 at TCU. But just when you wanted to write them off…they beat Kansas, something Tennessee did not do, 65-64 in Morgantown.

So, yes, KenPom likes the Vols by 18. That’s the mantle Tennessee has earned, even after the last two near-misses. We don’t want to get into that thing where we criticize every performance that isn’t a 20-point blowout just because we’re number one; there was plenty to enjoy from that win over Vanderbilt. Hopefully we find more of the same tomorrow.

Here’s the full schedule for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge:

• #24 Iowa State at #20 Ole Miss – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• Florida at TCU – 12:00 PM – ESPN2
• Alabama at Baylor – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
• Kansas State at Texas A&M – 2:00 PM – ESPN
• Texas at Georgia – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
• South Carolina at Oklahoma State – 2:00 PM – ESPNU
• West Virginia at #1 Tennessee – 4:00 PM – ESPN
• Vanderbilt at Oklahoma – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
• #9 Kansas at #8 Kentucky – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• Arkansas at #14 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN2

This team wants to make sure you keep the media guide handy.

When Admiral Schofield put 30 on #1 Gonzaga, we called it the best performance of the post-Chris Lofton era. We mentioned Grant Williams’ 37 points in Memorial Gymnasium last season – the most for any Vol since Ron Slay’s 38 in 2003 – as a footnote. In his two games against Vanderbilt last year, Williams attempted 15 free throws each time.

I feel like any attempt to say something clever about what happened tonight is a disservice to its greatness. Here it is:

Grant Williams: 10-of-15 FG, 23-of-23 FT, 43 points, 8 rebounds, 4 blocks.

The school record for points at Tennessee is 51 by Tony White vs Auburn in 1987. White also had 49 against Florida State the same year. Ron Widby scored 50 against LSU in 1967. Carl Widseth scored 47 against Auburn in 1956.

Next on the list is 43 points, which is the career high of Allan Houston, Reggie Johnson, Bernard King, Ernie Grunfeld…and now, Grant Williams.

The NCAA record for most free throw attempts without a miss is 24

— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) January 24, 2019

And #1 Tennessee beat Vanderbilt 88-83 in overtime.

Teams Won’t Lay Down For Tennessee

The Vols jumped Alabama 16-4 in the first eight minutes, Vanderbilt 15-2 in the first five minutes. Perhaps you, like me, were kicking back to enjoy another beat down.

It didn’t happen Saturday, and certainly didn’t happen tonight. Credit Vanderbilt; Alabama is on the bubble, but the Commodores were 0-5 in SEC play and staring swiftly down the barrel of 0-6 after those first five minutes. But what a difference being hot from three makes.

Vanderbilt was shooting 33% on the year from the arc coming in. In SEC play:

• 6-of-20 (30%) vs Ole Miss
• 6-of-25 (24%) at Georgia
• 7-of-25 (28%) at Kentucky
• 7-of-21 (33%) vs South Carolina
• 5-of-19 (26%) vs Mississippi State

Tonight: 10-of-21 (48%). Aaron Nesmith, Saben Lee, Matt Ryan, and Joe Toye went 10-of-18.

It made a huge difference, and the Vols had no answer on the other end: 5-of-20 (25%) from the arc, including 0-for-6 from Admiral Schofield. It’s the same percentage the Vols shot against Alabama. Yet the Vols walked away winners both times.

There was some reffin’ going on in both games, no doubt. Tennessee benefitted from a lightning-fast travel call on John Petty against Bama, and a hook-but-maybe-not-a-hold, letter-of-the-law flagrant foul in the final minutes of regulation tonight. But if you’re looking for why Tennessee won, look to the guy who knocked down both those free throws, then immediately scored on the ensuing inbounds.

Also, before that sequence, with the Vols down five and in need of a spark, this happened:

https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/1088268365720944640

When Bone threw that ball, I swear I thought it was meant for Alexander. I’m glad we won to preserve a number one ranking, and I’m glad for Williams’ 43 points. But also, this dunk could not happen in a game Tennessee lost.

This game got bananas in the final minute, then again in overtime. But with the game on the line after a Saben Lee free throw put Vandy up one with 20 seconds to play, Grant Williams had one more and-one in him, then a great close out in the corner without fouling on a Vanderbilt three.

Vanderbilt shot way above their average, to their credit, and found ways to disrupt what Tennessee wanted to do. The Vols got nothing from Schofield offensively and stayed cold from the arc.

But Grant Williams was enough.

He scored all of Tennessee’s points in overtime (10) until Jordan Bone’s free throws with six seconds left. In the last ten minutes of regulation, he scored all of Tennessee’s points except Bowden’s dunk and Schofield’s runner. That’s 27 of Tennessee’s last 33 points in 15 minutes of game time.

That dude is going in the rafters. Tennessee plays on as number one.