Gameday on Rocky Top

None of us have any experience with a 22-1 (10-0) basketball team outside our imagination. But here’s what we didn’t imagine about life at 10-0: the Vols aren’t even close to locking up the SEC.

It’s one part having both dates with Kentucky in the final seven games of the regular season, and one part LSU. Those two play tonight (7:00 PM ET, ESPN) in Lexington, the winner going to 10-1, the loser 9-2. It’s also a great lead-in to Duke at Louisville (9:00 PM), which could dramatically improve Tennessee’s chance at the number one overall seed if the Cardinals can join Gonzaga as teams who beat Duke but lost to the Vols.

Here’s life in the ACC: five teams between 8-3 and 9-1, six teams between 3-8 and 2-9. The gap is even more pronounced at the poles in the SEC: while Tennessee is 10-0 and the Cats & Tigers are 9-1, Missouri and Texas A&M are 2-8, Georgia 1-9, Vanderbilt 0-10. A&M’s one-point win over Alabama is the only victory from that four-team bottom tier that didn’t come against one of the other three.

So you can pencil in those four on Wednesday, and the Vols, Cats, Tigers, and a player to be named later for Friday in the SEC Tournament. Right now that fourth Friday team wouldn’t be one of the seven SEC schools in the Bracket Matrix, but Tennessee’s Wednesday opponent: South Carolina is 7-3 in the SEC, undefeated against everyone except, you guessed it: Tennessee, Kentucky, and LSU. The Vols turned a two-point game with 13 minutes left into a 22-point win without Jordan Bowden in Columbia despite 28 points from Chris Silva; I know we’re all looking to Saturday, but Carolina still deserves a glance.

The Vols can’t afford a stumble in the chase at the top of the bracket, but there’s also still a realistic scenario where Tennessee finishes third in the SEC. We’re absolutely trying to do more than win the league this year. But we also absolutely haven’t won the league enough – only thrice after 1982, including last year – to pretend it’s not a meaningful thing.

There’s plenty of excitement left to come in this week. But beating South Carolina is more than sidestepping a trap game; with Tennessee, LSU, and Kentucky all still in control of their own SEC destiny coming into tonight, every win counts.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this weekend, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

You’ll want to be sure to catch the Vols in action Wednesday night against South Carolina at 6:30 on the SEC Network, but in addition to that, there are several other games this week that matter to Vols fans, including the nation’s No. 2 and No. 4 teams and a big game between two upcoming opponents in No. 5 Kentucky and No. 19 LSU.

Who are you rooting for in these non-Vols games?

The Vols opened SEC play with a 46-point win over Georgia (that one still isn’t normal, no matter what Tom Crean says about his players). Things got tight in consecutive games around Tennessee’s number one ranking: a three-point win over Alabama, and a five-point overtime win at Vanderbilt.

Tennessee’s other seven SEC wins (plus West Virginia):

• +24 at Missouri
• +11 at Florida
• +19 vs Arkansas
• +17 vs West Virginia
• +22 at South Carolina
• +17 at Texas A&M
• +12 vs Missouri
• +12 vs Florida

To be sure, things are about to level up for the Vols. That’s what we expected when league play began, and it hasn’t wavered in the least. The trip to Lexington will be an event by itself, book-ended by a last pair of trap games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Then it’s five straight against NCAA Tournament teams, three on the road, four in the KenPom Top 25.

All that’s coming, and with it a significantly higher probability of a loss or two. So let’s take a moment to appreciate what’s already happened on a now 18-game winning streak.

The Florida Gators, a program with eight Elite Eight appearances this century, came into Knoxville in desperate need of a win like this one for their bubble argument. And, as the Vols have done so many times to Florida this century, Tennessee simply turned them away.

Tennessee would push the lead to double digits, then Florida would work it back to two possessions. And then Tennessee, as it has done so many times this year, hit the kind of run we’re now comfortable saying a number one team makes: turning what feels like into a close game into, “Wait, we’re up 13,” in a matter of moments.

The Gators have been allergic to PB&J, and that was true again today: 30 points on 13-of-22 from the floor combined, and that with only four total free throw attempts for Williams and Schofield. The new normal is four guys in double figures: Bowden had 13, and Bone had 10 despite:

Rick Barnes said Jordan Bone was feeling that ankle "tweak" during the second half.

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) February 9, 2019

We’ve seen how valuable Bone’s speed is this season; here’s hoping he’s 100% in Rupp Arena.

Also, gross:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: They had to go in there and push that bone (in his face) back out, but he seems OK. They’re making the mask today, and he should be OK to play Wednesday.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) February 9, 2019

If that quote was about me instead of Yves Pons, it would read, “They had to go in there and push that bone back out, and he’s out for the rest of his life.”

The Vols were the number two overall seed according to the selection committee today. They’re 10-0 in the SEC, but Kentucky and LSU are 9-1 (and play each other Tuesday in Lexington). Tennessee is 22-1.

The most important days are still ahead, and there’s plenty left to learn. But the Vols have been dominating the SEC’s middle and lower tiers with incredible regularity. It’s not an accomplishment that’s going to mean anything at the end of the year, but it sure is fun to watch now.

On to the Gamecocks, Wednesday night in Knoxville.

In contrast to football, where scarcity rules the day, college basketball has multiple hundreds of teams in action twice each week. You can rely on the network promos to help you decide what to give your attention, or you can come here and see what’s of interest to Vols fans in particular.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this weekend, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Your headliner for the weekend is the Vols hosting Florida at 4:00 on ESPN. But the rest of the nation will be salivating over No. 2 Duke at No. 3 Virginia immediately following on the same network, and we should watch that one, too.

Earlier in the day, we want Michigan to lose and both Kentucky and LSU (future Tennessee opponents) to both win to strengthen the Vols NET ranking.

On Saturday (12:30 PM ET, CBS), the NCAA selection committee will reveal its current Top 16 seeds. It’s the third year they’ve done so in early February, and the second time the Vols will appear in it. And while last year our enthusiasm was muted after taking a 28-point beating from Alabama the day before, this time we’ll get a glimpse of how the committee sees the Vols in the race for the number one overall seed.

Committee will set out top 24 seeds, but only announce the top 16 on Saturday. Top 8 teams are settled for now, Muir said. Nos. 9 through 24 "still need a lot of discussion," he said.

— Jerry Tipton (@JerryTipton) February 6, 2019

That’s Bernard Muir, Stanford’s athletic director who serves as the selection committee chairman this year. And those top eight teams seem relatively easy to figure out, as it’s an identical list in KenPom, the Bracket Matrix, and eight-of-nine in the NET ratings: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Michigan, Kentucky, Michigan State, and North Carolina.

There are a pair of one-loss mid-majors from Nevada and Houston who could crash the party (and Houston is seventh in NET), but I’d bet on the established names.

This isn’t worth a whole lot five weeks before the real thing – last year the Vols were the first four seed (13th) in first reveal and ended up 10th on the S-curve – but it should be an excellent indicator of how the committee views the Vols, specifically against Duke and Virginia. Where they put Gonzaga will be interesting overall, but it shouldn’t be above the Vols. But I could see Tennessee falling anywhere between one and three overall in this thing.

A few hours after the reveal, Duke and Virginia play each other again. Even if the Vols take care of business in the return match with the Gators (now 12-10 and in desperate need of a win over #1), the victor between Duke and UVA could vault the Vols in the eyes of the selection committee, if not in the AP poll.

But Tennessee will get the chance for the last word, in a sense, if Kentucky also stays hot. For the Vols and Wildcats to play twice after Duke and Virginia are done with each other is a big advantage in perception, especially if UT or UK can take full advantage with a sweep.

As for what we’ll see today, here’s a guess:

1. Duke (Washington DC)
2. Virginia (Louisville)
3. Tennessee (Kansas City)
4. Gonzaga (Anaheim)
5. Michigan
6. Kentucky
7. Michigan State
8. North Carolina

One other point about this kind of setup: as those top eight include Gonzaga and then just three conferences, the committee will have to do some gymnastics to keep the top teams from each league in separate regions. If the list above actually represented the S-curve on Selection Sunday, the Vols would be most likely to catch North Carolina at #8 to keep the Vols away from Kentucky and the Tar Heels away from Duke/UVA.

The reveal should be educational, but the Vols will still be just fine by taking care of their own business. That’s the Gators at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN. Let’s see if they hit a dozen threes this time.