Gameday on Rocky Top

The Vols opened SEC play with a 46-point win over Georgia (that one still isn’t normal, no matter what Tom Crean says about his players). Things got tight in consecutive games around Tennessee’s number one ranking: a three-point win over Alabama, and a five-point overtime win at Vanderbilt.

Tennessee’s other seven SEC wins (plus West Virginia):

• +24 at Missouri
• +11 at Florida
• +19 vs Arkansas
• +17 vs West Virginia
• +22 at South Carolina
• +17 at Texas A&M
• +12 vs Missouri
• +12 vs Florida

To be sure, things are about to level up for the Vols. That’s what we expected when league play began, and it hasn’t wavered in the least. The trip to Lexington will be an event by itself, book-ended by a last pair of trap games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Then it’s five straight against NCAA Tournament teams, three on the road, four in the KenPom Top 25.

All that’s coming, and with it a significantly higher probability of a loss or two. So let’s take a moment to appreciate what’s already happened on a now 18-game winning streak.

The Florida Gators, a program with eight Elite Eight appearances this century, came into Knoxville in desperate need of a win like this one for their bubble argument. And, as the Vols have done so many times to Florida this century, Tennessee simply turned them away.

Tennessee would push the lead to double digits, then Florida would work it back to two possessions. And then Tennessee, as it has done so many times this year, hit the kind of run we’re now comfortable saying a number one team makes: turning what feels like into a close game into, “Wait, we’re up 13,” in a matter of moments.

The Gators have been allergic to PB&J, and that was true again today: 30 points on 13-of-22 from the floor combined, and that with only four total free throw attempts for Williams and Schofield. The new normal is four guys in double figures: Bowden had 13, and Bone had 10 despite:

Rick Barnes said Jordan Bone was feeling that ankle "tweak" during the second half.

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) February 9, 2019

We’ve seen how valuable Bone’s speed is this season; here’s hoping he’s 100% in Rupp Arena.

Also, gross:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: They had to go in there and push that bone (in his face) back out, but he seems OK. They’re making the mask today, and he should be OK to play Wednesday.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) February 9, 2019

If that quote was about me instead of Yves Pons, it would read, “They had to go in there and push that bone back out, and he’s out for the rest of his life.”

The Vols were the number two overall seed according to the selection committee today. They’re 10-0 in the SEC, but Kentucky and LSU are 9-1 (and play each other Tuesday in Lexington). Tennessee is 22-1.

The most important days are still ahead, and there’s plenty left to learn. But the Vols have been dominating the SEC’s middle and lower tiers with incredible regularity. It’s not an accomplishment that’s going to mean anything at the end of the year, but it sure is fun to watch now.

On to the Gamecocks, Wednesday night in Knoxville.

In contrast to football, where scarcity rules the day, college basketball has multiple hundreds of teams in action twice each week. You can rely on the network promos to help you decide what to give your attention, or you can come here and see what’s of interest to Vols fans in particular.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this weekend, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Your headliner for the weekend is the Vols hosting Florida at 4:00 on ESPN. But the rest of the nation will be salivating over No. 2 Duke at No. 3 Virginia immediately following on the same network, and we should watch that one, too.

Earlier in the day, we want Michigan to lose and both Kentucky and LSU (future Tennessee opponents) to both win to strengthen the Vols NET ranking.

On Saturday (12:30 PM ET, CBS), the NCAA selection committee will reveal its current Top 16 seeds. It’s the third year they’ve done so in early February, and the second time the Vols will appear in it. And while last year our enthusiasm was muted after taking a 28-point beating from Alabama the day before, this time we’ll get a glimpse of how the committee sees the Vols in the race for the number one overall seed.

Committee will set out top 24 seeds, but only announce the top 16 on Saturday. Top 8 teams are settled for now, Muir said. Nos. 9 through 24 "still need a lot of discussion," he said.

— Jerry Tipton (@JerryTipton) February 6, 2019

That’s Bernard Muir, Stanford’s athletic director who serves as the selection committee chairman this year. And those top eight teams seem relatively easy to figure out, as it’s an identical list in KenPom, the Bracket Matrix, and eight-of-nine in the NET ratings: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Michigan, Kentucky, Michigan State, and North Carolina.

There are a pair of one-loss mid-majors from Nevada and Houston who could crash the party (and Houston is seventh in NET), but I’d bet on the established names.

This isn’t worth a whole lot five weeks before the real thing – last year the Vols were the first four seed (13th) in first reveal and ended up 10th on the S-curve – but it should be an excellent indicator of how the committee views the Vols, specifically against Duke and Virginia. Where they put Gonzaga will be interesting overall, but it shouldn’t be above the Vols. But I could see Tennessee falling anywhere between one and three overall in this thing.

A few hours after the reveal, Duke and Virginia play each other again. Even if the Vols take care of business in the return match with the Gators (now 12-10 and in desperate need of a win over #1), the victor between Duke and UVA could vault the Vols in the eyes of the selection committee, if not in the AP poll.

But Tennessee will get the chance for the last word, in a sense, if Kentucky also stays hot. For the Vols and Wildcats to play twice after Duke and Virginia are done with each other is a big advantage in perception, especially if UT or UK can take full advantage with a sweep.

As for what we’ll see today, here’s a guess:

1. Duke (Washington DC)
2. Virginia (Louisville)
3. Tennessee (Kansas City)
4. Gonzaga (Anaheim)
5. Michigan
6. Kentucky
7. Michigan State
8. North Carolina

One other point about this kind of setup: as those top eight include Gonzaga and then just three conferences, the committee will have to do some gymnastics to keep the top teams from each league in separate regions. If the list above actually represented the S-curve on Selection Sunday, the Vols would be most likely to catch North Carolina at #8 to keep the Vols away from Kentucky and the Tar Heels away from Duke/UVA.

The reveal should be educational, but the Vols will still be just fine by taking care of their own business. That’s the Gators at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN. Let’s see if they hit a dozen threes this time.

Here’s one of the best examples of the difference between last season and now for the Vols.

Last season Grant Williams’ worst game, by far, was at Georgia on February 17: 1-of-8 from the floor, five points, four rebounds, fouled out in 25 minutes. And Tennessee lost 73-62, their second defeat in three games after a six-game winning streak.

An aside: a six-game winning streak is always a good qualifier for a team’s ability to win it all, since that’s what it takes to win the tournament. How many Tennessee teams had such a winning streak this century?

• 6: 2003 (NIT), 2004 (NIT), 2013 (NIT), 2018 (SEC Champs)
• 7: 2010 (Elite Eight), 2011 (started 7-0)
• 8: 2006 (NCAA 2-seed)
• 9: 2001 (started 9-0), 2007 (Sweet 16)
• 11: 2000 (started 11-0, Sweet 16), 2008 (Sweet 16)
• 16 and counting: 2019

Just one more way of saying what we’re seeing right now is significantly better than Tennessee’s best basketball in recent history, much of which was already better than anything for decades before that.

But it ended at six for last year’s team in part because Williams struggled at Georgia against what was ultimately an 11-point loss to an 18-15 team.

Compare that to this year, when his worst game is again obvious: at Missouri on January 8. In that one, Williams was 1-of-8 from the floor with four points, one rebound, and fouled out in 22 minutes. Missouri was, at the time, a team on the bubble.

And the Vols won by 24.

We’ve said for almost a year now that the first question for any team facing Tennessee is, “Can they guard Grant Williams?” Sometimes the answer is simply no, specifically with teams like Vanderbilt but generally more often than not. But some teams, like Alabama and certainly Missouri the first time, do find answers.

When Williams struggled against Georgia last year, the Vols got strong performances from Kyle Alexander (10 points, 13 rebounds) and Lamonte Turner off the bench (14 points, 4-of-8 from the arc). But it wasn’t enough. This year, when Williams struggles – which is basically the Missouri game and that’s it – the Vols have better answers in quality and quantity. Against the Tigers, Tennessee got 17 points and five assists from Jordan Bone, 14 points and 17 rebounds (!) from Kyle Alexander, 16-and-9 from Admiral Schofield, and 20 points from Jordan Bowden (on a night he went 0-for-4 from the arc) off the bench, just for good measure.

Grant Williams is an incredible player on a national level the likes of which we haven’t seen in a very long time. No Vol has earned first-team All-American honors since Dale Ellis in 1983. Allan Houston and Chris Lofton both made second-team multiple times; Tony White and Ron Slay made third once. Williams is on pace to have his number retired.

This both is and isn’t a fun question to think about…but I also think Tennessee would still be really good without him.

Aside from two signature wins coming with him fouled out (the title clincher in the rematch vs Georgia last year, and taking down #1 Gonzaga this year), every other player on this team is better than they were when the Vols lost on Williams’ off day in Athens last season. And Jordan Bone & Kyle Alexander are significantly better.

So the Vols may very well run into some teams that can limit Williams and/or foul him out; Missouri might do it again tonight. But Tennessee’s ability to both win and excel even when Williams isn’t on the floor is remarkable. The individual talents of Tennessee’s best player and the collective strength of the team even when he isn’t on the floor combine for a higher ceiling than anything we’ve seen before.

It continues late tonight: 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 as Missouri comes to Knoxville.

Go Vols.

As the Vols continue to roll over their opponents, it’s becoming more and more common to hear commentators ask the question, “What is Tennessee’s weakness?” That may not be a fair question for a team that has only lost one game in overtime on a neutral floor to (at the time) a great team, but asking what they can improve on is a very good question. And the answer to that question is defensive efficiency. For now, it appears to be what is keeping Tennessee from an overall No. 1 seed.

The Vols — ranked No. 1 in the polls for the third week in a row — are also still a No. 1 seed in the latest Bracket Matrix. As we’ve said before, this is important because, as a general rule, No. 1 seeds do indeed tend to do significantly better in the NCAA Tournament than do No. 2 seeds.

In the Matrix, though, the Vols are not currently the No. 1 seed overall, but the third No. 1 seed, behind Duke and Virginia (and just ahead of Gonzaga.) Jockeying for the overall No. 1 seed could be important because the regions themselves are seeded, meaning if all No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, the best-against-worst principle would still apply. In other words, the first No. 1 seed would play the last No. 1 seed, and the second would play the third. By the time you get to the Final Four, such small differences probably don’t matter nearly as much as getting a 1-seed wherever it might be, but still, you want every advantage you can get.

Note that the Bracket Matrix is just a compilation of the various guesses by the various experts on the internet. The current NET Rankings identify the same teams, but in a different order: Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, and Tennessee.

As we’ve written before, the NCAA NET Rankings are replacing the RPI this year and are leaned on heavily by the Selection Committee. The NET Rankings include the following factors: Team Value Index, Net Efficiency, Winning Percentage, Adjusted Win Percentage, and Scoring Margin. Check out our post What are the NET rankings in men’s basketball to learn more about each of those factors.

So, what does Tennessee need to accomplish to earn that coveted overall No. 1 seed? Let’s look at the various factors that go into the NET Rankings and those that are found on the Team Sheets to see where the Vols might be currently coming up short compared to the others in the race.

We’ll take a closer look at the details behind Tennessee’s NET Ranking later, but for now, note that it’s the algorithms on the team sheets that don’t like the Vols as much as the other teams on this list.

Apart from the most-important NET Rankings, the five algorithms tracked are the KPI, ESPN’s BPI and SOR, KenPom (“POM”), and Jeff Sagarin (“SAG”). The Vols are No. 8 in the KPI, No. 5 in the BPI and KenPom, and No. 6 in Jeff Sagarin.

At first, you’d think that something in the KPI would be the place to look, but Gonzaga is ranked even lower in the KPI than Tennessee and is still ahead of them in the NET.

The answer therefore appears to lie somewhere in the BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin rankings, where Tennessee is consistently ranked several spots below the others.

Most of these algorithms are mostly-closed, closely-guarded secret systems, so you have to do a little digging and make a few assumptions along the way as you look for answers. In the BPI, the only data columns in addition to the final calculation are offensive and defensive BPIs. Tennessee is ranked 2nd in offensive BPI, but they are ranked all the way down at 21st in defensive BPI.

KenPom’s data appears to support the idea that it’s Tennessee’s defensive resume that is making it look less attractive to the machines than the other teams vying for the overall No. 1 seed. Michigan State, which has four losses to the Vols’ one loss in overtime on a neutral floor, is ahead of Tennessee in the KenPom rankings, presumably because the Spartan’s offensive and defensive efficiency rankings are both in the Top 10, while Tennessee’s defensive efficiency is only ranked No. 45.

So, the working theory is that if the Vols want the overall No. 1 seed, they need to improve their defensive efficiency. We’ll take a look at what they can do to make that happen in a later post.

Very, as it turns out. That’s where the Vols would be with a win tomorrow.

By my count, only seven SEC teams have started 8-0 in league play since 2000. Kentucky did it in 2003, 2005, 2012, and 2015. Florida did it in 2007, 2013, and 2014. Every one of those teams made the Elite Eight, four made the Final Four, and two won it all.

More rare in the SEC is a 20-1 start overall. Since 2000, John Calipari’s Kentucky teams have done it thrice:

• The John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins 2010 team, which started 27-1 before losing at Tennessee on February 27. They lost in the Elite Eight.
• The Anthony Davis 2012 team, which started 32-1 before losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament finals. They won the title.
• The undefeated 2015 team, which started 38-0 before losing to Wisconsin in the Final Four.

There’s also a team I’d forgotten: the 2004 Mississippi State Bulldogs started 21-1 and finished the regular season 25-2 with a one-point loss to Kentucky and a four-point loss to Alabama. They lost to Vanderbilt by four in overtime in the first game of the SEC Tournament. Still, they earned a two seed as SEC Champions…and lost to Xavier in the second round by 15. Sometimes the story just doesn’t end the way you want it to. But if you’re looking for another example of how special this season is, consider that no Florida team in this century – a program with two titles, two other Final Four appearances, and four additional Elite Eight appearances since 2000 – has ever started a season 20-1.

Tennessee isn’t the only team with an easier path to the SEC title

Plenty of word count has been spilled for Tennessee’s back-loaded schedule, still two weeks away. The current average KenPom of Tennessee’s first 11 SEC opponents: 85.1. The current average of six of Tennessee’s final seven SEC opponents: 19.8 (plus the second game with Vanderbilt).

There was some thought that the Vols would be so far ahead of the pack through those first 11 games, it wouldn’t much matter. But two things have happened over the last couple weeks: Kentucky really got its act together, and LSU kept winning.

The Wildcats are now eighth in KenPom and a two seed in the Bracket Matrix; those two games should be the showdown we expected all along. But keep an eye on LSU, especially because of their schedule. Among these three contenders, here are the teams each one plays twice:

• Tennessee: Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt
• Kentucky: Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
• LSU: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas A&M

There’s clear separation in the difficulty of Kentucky’s league schedule and Tennessee’s. But LSU’s is the real gift: the Tigers don’t play any of the league’s top five teams in the Bracket Matrix twice (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, plus LSU themselves). They’re already 7-0 and could put up a really big number; KenPom projects the Vols to win the league at 15-3, but LSU’s projection is just one game behind.

For history, for what could be a surprisingly-tight league chase, and for the all-important one seeds…every game still counts. On to the Aggies.

Relegated to the Bottom

Last year Texas A&M started 11-1, its only loss to Arizona. They were sixth in KenPom. And then they started league play 0-5.

They got healthy and rallied, winning seven of their last ten to earn a seven seed in the NCAA Tournament. They shocked North Carolina in the second round with a 21-point win, then got rocked by Michigan in the Sweet 16 by 27.

And then everyone left, especially everyone tall. 6’10” Robert Williams is with the Boston Celtics, 6’10” Tyler Davis also turned pro early, and 6’10” Tonny Trocha-Morelos graduated. Guard Duane Wilson also graduated, and 6’9″ DJ Hogg is in the G-League. Then guard Admon Gilder, who was supposed to lead this team, had a blood clot issue that has sidelined him for the entire season.

So, yeah: the Aggies are 8-11 (1-6), though they did beat Kansas State in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge last weekend. But they are part of a fast-growing basement in the league this year, victimized by injury to their best players (Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M) and the success of the rest of the league. The SEC could be starting to see some of what happens in the ACC regularly: when the top 70% of your league is so good, the bottom tier can look really bad. I’d imagine you can get really good odds, if they exist, on the first day of the SEC Tournament featuring Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Georgia. Those four are currently 3-25 in league play.

Texas A&M is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in college basketball: 28.5%, 341st nationally, and 26.2% in SEC play. They also give up the highest percentage from the arc (37.1%) in league play. That’s a quick and easy recipe for disaster. Because of their lack of size they also get pounded on the glass, and are 345th in giving up blocked shots. All of this is bad news when playing the number one team in the country.

They do defend well without fouling, best in the SEC so far in that department. If they can take the free throw line away from Tennessee, perhaps there’s a path to keeping it interesting. But this one just looks like it has bad news written all over it for Texas A&M.

It’s a later start than what we’ve been playing: Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN. Here’s hoping February treats us well.

Go Vols.