Gameday on Rocky Top

The Vols will have to deal with some talk of the latter after this one. Its ultimate destiny will depend on how much it invests in the former.

The first half was pure violence, Kentucky six points ahead behind the work of P.J. Washington inside and Keldon Johnson outside. The Vols were out of their natural element, but still very much alive behind the work of Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bone.

The second half was the pendulum swing hard in officiating. But more than anything, Kentucky got a ton from its supporting cast: Reid Travis finished with 11 points and 10 free throw attempts, and Tyler Herro had 15 points and 13 rebounds. Meanwhile Lamonte Turner was 2-of-11, Jordan Bowden 1-of-7, and Kyle Alexander fouled out with the quickness.

Kentucky’s run to open the second half was shocking, pushing a six-point lead to 20 by the first media timeout. The Vols had only nine turnovers on the night, but three of them were in that four-minute span. Tennessee would get no closer than 11 from there.

We can go on with the words, but I’m not sure I have any to capture how physical this game was, and how often Tennessee was on the wrong end of it. Some of those words can go to the referees, but two things are clear: Kentucky was the aggressor, and the Vols have to be better than a tough whistle if they’re trying to win the national championship.

In context:

• Tennessee shot 40.7% from the floor, third lowest of the season
• The Vols took (settled for?) 25 threes, third most of the season
• Eleven assists is the lowest total of the year
• Kentucky shot 54.7%, the highest percentage the Vols have allowed this year
• Kentucky blocked six shots, the most the Vols have allowed this year

In fairness, I’d imagine it’s tough to run through the sort of schedule Tennessee has faced since Gonzaga – only two games (Florida) against teams in the KenPom Top 50 – and then turn it around to Rupp Arena. And I assume it’s still good news, but after Vanderbilt on Tuesday the Vols will play five consecutive KenPom Top 40 teams, including Kentucky again in two weeks.

But, at least on this night, concerns about Tennessee’s defense not being at a championship level were validated, and Kentucky’s defense disrupted much of what Tennessee’s offense loves to do. And the Cats were simply the tougher team, and deserved victory.

I don’t think Tennessee was exposed. We’ve seen too much from this team over two years to believe they are tougher and can defend better than what we saw tonight. Perhaps instead this was simply an education in what it takes to win against an opponent of this caliber in the most hostile environment we’ll face, especially after not needing those levels since December 9.

Tennessee has to keep getting better. And to beat Kentucky, or a team like that deep in the tournament, they have to be tougher.

Plenty of opportunity knocks between now and then.

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the No. 1-ranked Tennessee Volunteers (23-1, 11-0) traveling to Lexington to take on the No. 5-ranked Kentucky Wildcats (20-4, 9-2).

Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

• Tipoff: 8:00
• TV: ESPN
• Official video streaming: Watch ESPN
• Official audio streaming: Vol Network
• Live stats (presumably updated at gametime)

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today and tomorrow, curated just for Vols fans:

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And in case you missed any of it, here’s some additional reading material to get you game-ready:

• Tennessee-Kentucky: the four factors
• Tennessee at Kentucky Preview
• Tennessee 85 South Carolina 73: Eliminating the Puncher’s Chance
• Worth reading 2.14.19: Fixing to find out if these problems are actually problems
• Worth watching 2.14.19: Vols-Gamecocks highlights and post-game

Go Vols!

Here’s our list of games worth watching this weekend, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

No. 1 Tennessee actually has the national game of the weekend tonight against the No. 5 (for now) Kentucky Wildcats at 8:00 on ESPN. Pace yourselves, y’all.

But the appetizers tip at noon, and the day features a couple of other Top 25 matchups, several teams with which Tennessee is competing for top seeding, and several games among important SEC brethren.

In general, root for Tennessee first and foremost, and then for other top seeds to lose, former opponents that are seeded but not a threat to displace the Vols (like Kansas) to win, and SEC teams to win.

Yeah, I know that that last part ruffles feathers and also has exceptions, but that’s why it’s a general rule. If you’d rather root for a rival to lose than win even though it might be good for the Vols, you’ll be wrong but we can still be friends. And games between SEC teams? You’re on your own there, although we want as many “good” wins as we can get for seeding purposes, so at this point, you might want to root for good teams to win and bad teams to keep losing.

By the way, who you root for actually has no bearing on the game anyway. Just thought I’d mention that. 🙂

So, who are you rooting for in these non-Vols games?

Hey, have you heard that there’s a huge game between No. 1 Tennessee and No. 5 Kentucky in Rupp Arena Saturday night at 8:00? You have? Well, okay then.

Will’s already posted his regular preview of the Tennessee-Kentucky game, which you should go read right now. But I wanted to also take another look at the game from a four factors perspective.

If you’re not familiar with the four factors, it’s essentially an analytical framework that boils the game of basketball down to four key categories:

1. Shooting
2. Turnovers
3. Offensive Rebounding
4. Getting to the foul line

Of these, shooting matters the most by far and is defined as a formula that results in a number known as effective field goal percentage. The remaining categories are in order of importance, but are only marginally more important than the one below them and are all much less important than shooting. That’s quite a dramatic oversimplification, so if you want the full explanation, check out the Dean Oliver four factors page. Even KenPom uses these four factors.

So, let’s take a look at Tennessee’s and Kentucky’s numbers in these all-important categories, first as a straight-up comparison and then in the context of offense vs. defense.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 56.9 (No. 7)
• Kentucky 52.8 (No. 93)

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.9 (No. 25)
• Kentucky 18.5 (No. 158)

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 32.3 (No. 58)
• Kentucky 38.3 (No. 3)

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 36.3 (No. 102)
• Kentucky 41 (No. 22)

Straight-up conclusions

So, the Vols are much better at shooting and protecting the ball than are the Wildcats, but the Big Blue are much better at getting offensive rebounds and getting to the foul line than are the Big Orange. Fortunately for the Vols, their advantages are in the two most-important categories.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 56.9 (No. 7), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 47.5 (No. 45).

Head-to-head, Tennessee’s shooting offense still ranks higher than Kentucky’s shooting defense, but it’s probably safe to say that the Wildcats are going to be one of the toughest outs of the season for the Vols in this category. Kentucky’s number here (No. 45) is most similar to those of Kansas (No. 40), Louisville (No. 32), and Florida (No. 57). Tennessee rarely struggles shooting the ball, but it will be more difficult than usual Saturday night.

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s shooting offense is 52.8 (No. 93), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.7 (No. 27). They’re not terrible, but they’re not great, either, and they’ll be going against a very good defense.

Conclusions

Tennessee will likely struggle more than usual shooting the ball, but Kentucky should have even more trouble than Tennessee in this area.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.9 (No. 25), while Kentucky’s ability to generate turnovers (I’m going to call this “turnover defense” even though that sounds weird) is 20.4 (No. 86). That’s most similar to South Carolina.

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s turnover % is 18.5 (No. 158), while Tennessee’s turnover defense is 19.1 (No. 151).

Conclusions

Tennessee protects the ball pretty well, and Kentucky doesn’t present a particular threat on this front. On the other side of the ball, the Vols don’t do a great job of creating turnovers, but the Wildcats are fairly generous on their own. My guess is that turnovers won’t really be much of a factor Saturday.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 32.3 (No. 58), while Kentucky’s defense in that category is 25.8 (No. 61), which is most similar to Louisville.

When Kentucky has the ball

Here’s where is gets scary for Vols fans. Kentucky’s OR% is 38.3 (No. 3), while Tennessee’s defense in that category is 30.4 (No. 259). The Wildcats are great at getting their own misses, and — being generous here — the Vols aren’t especially well-equipped to prevent them from doing so.

Conclusions

The biggest advantage in this game appears to be on the offensive glass for the Wildcats. Get ready to go nuts every time we play good defense only to see them get an easy rebound and putback.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 36.3 (No. 102), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 27.1 (No. 34). What that means is that the Vols aren’t especially good at drawing fouls as a team, and the Wildcats are quite good at playing defense without fouling.

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s FT Rate is 41 (No. 22), while Tennessee’s defense is 32.8 (No. 164). So, the mirror image of the foregoing is also true: The Wildcats are good at drawing fouls, and the Vols aren’t especially good at avoiding them.

Conclusions

We’re going to want to blame this on CoRuppt Arena and the Rupparees, but it would be in keeping with both teams’ respective resumes if Kentucky ends up with a huge advantage in getting to the foul line Saturday night.

Score Prediction

KenPom has Kentucky winning this one 74-72. I suspect that this is just about right.

Not only is this the highest-ranked match-up between the Vols and Cats in their 224-game history, it’s also one of just three top five match-ups in the history of Tennessee basketball. No hyperbole necessary for this one: the facts are good enough.

Overconfident Tennessee Teams Go to Rupp Arena to Die

Last year the Vols earned their third win in Rupp since 1980, joining 1999 and 2006. The last two times the Vols won in Lexington, really good things were on the way for the program. But each time those good things were also humbled in their return to Rupp:

• In 2000 the Vols went to Rupp at 18-2 (6-1), ranked sixth in the nation. Kentucky was 14th. The Cats won by 13.
• In 2001 the Vols went to Rupp at 16-1 (3-0), ranked fourth. Kentucky was unranked. The Cats won by 10.
• In 2008 the Vols went to Rupp at 16-1 (3-0), ranked third. Kentucky was unranked. The Cats won by six.

History says you shouldn’t assume when Tennessee is the higher-ranked team, especially when the Cats are also top five material. This wouldn’t be the first Vol squad with championship aspirations to take a step back in Lexington.

What would it look like to take a step forward?

The Headlines

The thing Tennessee is very best at is still shot-blocking: third nationally in fewest blocks allowed by percentage, sixth in shot blocking on the other end of the floor. It’s an advantage we’re more accustomed to a team like Kentucky having. So what will that look like when it’s actually the Cats on the other end of the floor?

Kentucky eats eight percent of its shots, 84th nationally. That’s better than last year, but still worse than their numbers from 2014-17. Those teams all had an elite interior presence: Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, Marcus Lee, and Bam Adebayo. P.J. Washington and Reid Travis are strong on the offensive glass – more on that in a second – but not quite the interior presence of their predecessors.

A note here on the way Rick Barnes got around some of that elite size by attacking it with quicker bigs:

• 2016 Knoxville: Armani Moore 18 points, 13 rebounds
• 2016 Lexington: Armani Moore 21 points, 11 rebounds
• 2017 Knoxville: Admiral Schofield 15 points, 7 rebounds off the bench
• 2017 Lexington: Admiral Schofield 17 points, 7 rebounds off the bench
• 2018 Knoxville: Admiral Schofield 20 points, 9 rebounds
• 2018 Lexington: Admiral Schofield 12 points, 6 rebounds
• 2018 SEC Tournament: Admiral Schofield 22 points, 10 rebounds

Moore and Schofield are averaging 17.8 points and 9 rebounds against Kentucky. Schofield has become such a threat from the arc (41.1%), I’m curious to see how it will affect this part of Tennessee’s game plan.

But inside the arc, one huge factor for this game: how will it be officiated? Tennessee hasn’t been great at getting to the free throw line in league play (11th in free throw rate), but it’s still a huge part of Grant Williams’ game. Can the Vols be strong inside and get #2 to the free throw line at Rupp? What happens if they can’t? What happens if Tennessee finds itself in foul trouble?

A big magic number for beating Kentucky: teams are 3-0 when attempting more than 20 free throws against the Cats, but only Alabama won when attempting less (17). Duke got there 29 times, Seton Hall 26 (with overtime), LSU 22.

Tennessee always had the horses to score inside, but they’ve improved as a jump-shooting team in ways we didn’t count on. The Vols use great ball movement to essentially eliminate bad shots from their offense, and knock down that free throw line jumper like nobody’s business. The Vols shoot 57.7% inside the arc, fifth nationally. Sooner or later it’s not going to fall, and the Vols will need to win with defense. But at Kentucky, I’m not sure that would be enough. The way you typically beat this team is to get to the line. Perhaps when you’re number one, you beat teams however you like…but we haven’t won at Rupp Arena nearly enough for me to believe in new rules just yet.

Another question Rick Barnes will have to answer: does Tennessee send more bodies to keep Kentucky off the offensive glass, or will the Vols still try to get out and go? Tennessee plays way faster than Kentucky, but its success isn’t directly tied to keeping the other team off the offensive glass. The fewest offensive rebounds Tennessee has allowed this year is five. One was in the 46-point beat-down of Georgia. But the other was in the overtime win at Vanderbilt.

Then there’s the three-point shooting. The Vols are allowing 36.8% from the arc in league play, next-to-last in the SEC. It’s an amazing stat considering the Vols are 11-0. Kentucky is shooting 35.7% in league play, fifth-best. But here’s a stat that’s almost identical to last year for the Cats:

• 2018: 24-3 when shooting at least 29% from three, 2-8 when not
• 2019: 17-0 when shooting at least 28% from three, 3-4 when not

The Vols were one of those three losses last year (7-of-19, 36.8% in Knoxville), but the Cats cleaned it up to 7-of-16 (43.8%) in their SEC Tournament win. Kentucky doesn’t take enough threes to say they rely on them, but they also don’t need to make very many to push their abundance of talent over the edge.

So, as you’d imagine, the Vols need to defend the three better, keep Kentucky from dominating the offensive glass, and get a whistle conducive to being the more dominant team at the rim (a position we’re especially not used to in Rupp). Tennessee beat Kentucky once last year by getting to the free throw line (18-of-24 in Knoxville) and once because the Cats went cold from three (3-of-14 in Lexington). The Vols can survive one of those numbers going against them, but still probably not both.

There’s a ton of basketball left to be played here. Tennessee still needs help to win the argument vs Duke for the number one overall seed. But beyond that? I don’t think there’s anything, from the other one seeds to the SEC Championship, where Tennessee still won’t control its own destiny even with a loss here. There’s a version of Duke that just beats everybody. But aside from that, I’m not sure Tennessee will face a stiffer challenge than trying to beat this Kentucky team in Lexington. We’re already number one, and with Kentucky also in the top five you shouldn’t have to adjust expectations too much regardless of outcome. So for at least one night, the biggest prize to be won might be the sort of exclamation point in this rivalry I’m not sure I’ve ever seen from the Vols. Tennessee plays Kentucky again in two weeks. But if the Vols go to 5-3 against the Cats under Barnes, 3-1 in the last four, and two straight in Rupp Arena? While ranked number one? You’re talking about, in the moment, a level of separation between Tennessee and Kentucky that hasn’t existed in my lifetime.

Might as well add it to the list.

We all know where this is headed on Saturday. But let’s take one more minute to celebrate what these guys have done.

Tennessee, as you know, is now 23-1 (11-0). Nineteen wins in a row, nine SEC wins by double digits. But the majority of these players are also now 37-5 in their last 42 games.

Last time Tennessee beat South Carolina without Jordan Bowden. Tonight they did it with Grant Williams as the sixth-leading scorer. On the Vols, not in the game. The Vols actually lost the second half scoring 37-36, and still never let South Carolina get it to single digits.

Two of those five losses in the last 42 games – at Alabama and at Georgia last year – the Vols have seemingly eliminated from the realm of possibility. No bubble-or-worse squad has beaten Tennessee, and most haven’t come particularly close. Two of those five are to Kansas and Kentucky. And the other is where all of this is ultimately going: Loyola-Chicago, who still should get credit for making the Final Four, but also beat the Vols on a bad bounce with no Kyle Alexander. Injury can still strike – we all said a few words or held our breath when Jordan Bone went down tonight – but the depth of this team suggests no one absence is taking Tennessee out in the early rounds this time.

That’s the goal at the top of the bracket: be good enough to eliminate the bad bounce possibility, at least until the Elite Eight. And in the regular season, plus-or-minus two games when the Vols could’ve gone to number one, then ultimately did and almost stumbled immediately? The Vols are simply a machine. The opposition can even seem like they’re playing well – alarmingly so from the three point line at times, like the first half tonight – and oops, the Vols are still up 10. The best punch from teams with that chance usually gives up a transition bucket on the other end and is back down double digits a few possessions later.

There will be plenty of words to spill about Rupp Arena. That’s coming, then Vanderbilt, then five straight games against tournament opponents. This is all about to level up.

But what we’ve seen through the first 11 games of league play…is it even fair to call it a grind? For the opposition, definitely. For Tennessee, it’s just business. And it’s better than ever, longer than ever.