Gameday on Rocky Top

No. 5 Tennessee looks for another Quadrant 1 win tonight as Mississippi State comes to Thompson-Boling. It’s Senior Night, and the game tips at 9:00 ET and is televised on the SEC Network.

Here are the teams’ respective four factors numbers.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 55.6 (No. 16) (holding steady at 55.9 (No. 16))
• Mississippi State 54.6 (No. 36)

Prior opponents:

• Kentucky 53.6 (No. 59)
• Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)
• LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
• Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
• Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)

Conclusions: The Bulldogs have one of the best shooting offenses we’ve seen recently, which is saying something.

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.6 (No. 20) (up from 15.9 (No. 24))
• Mississippi State 19.1 (No. 220)

Prior opponents:

• Kentucky 18.7 (No. 185)
• Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)
• LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
• Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
• Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)

Conclusions: Oooh, these guys come bearing gifts! We like gifts.

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 30.9 (No. 94) (down from 31.3 (No. 86))
• Mississippi State 34.6 (No. 23)

Prior opponents:

• Kentucky 37.9 (No. 4)
• Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)
• LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
• Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
• Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)

Conclusions: The Bulldogs are better than the Vols at grabbing their own misses, but they’re not as good as either Kentucky or LSU in that department.

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 34.1 (No. 155) (down from 34.6 (No. 141))
• Mississippi State 33.0 (No. 188)

Prior opponents:

• Kentucky 42.2 (No. 14)
• Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)
• LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
• Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
• Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)

Conclusions: This could be a welcome reprieve for the Vols, as the Bulldogs aren’t especially good at getting to the free throw line.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.6 (No. 16), while Mississippi State’s defense against that is 50.1 (No. 145).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ shooting offense is 54.6 (No. 36), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.6 (No. 23).

Conclusions

The hope here is that Tennessee will shoot about as well as it usually does and that Tennessee’s defense will impede the Bulldogs more than they’ll impede us.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.6 (No. 20), while the Bulldogs’ turnover defense is 20.0 (No. 92).

When Mississippi State has the ball

Mississippi State’s turnover % is 19.1 (No. 220), but Tennessee’s turnover defense is only marginally better, at 18.7 (No. 166).

Conclusions

The Vols should have an advantage in the turnovers category. They generally protect the ball well and shouldn’t be troubled too much by the defense. On the other side of the ball, they don’t create many turnovers, but should get plenty of freebies anyway.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.9 (No. 94), while Mississippi State’s defense in that category is 29.4 (No. 232).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ OR% is 34.6 (No. 23), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 29.8 (No. 248). As usual, this is the biggest advantage of the game for Tennessee’s opponent tonight.

Conclusions

Tennessee should be able to get its share of offensive rebounds, but the biggest threat tonight appears to be Mississippi State on the offensive boards. If the Vols don’t box out and rebound as a defense, this could spell trouble. The Bulldogs shoot very well and could do some real damage against a defense scattered by a missed shot.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.1 (No. 155), while Mississippi State’s defense against that is 31.7 (No. 145).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ FT Rate is 33.0 (No. 188), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 34.2 (No. 216).

Conclusions

To me, this looks essentially like a stalemate, so I expect both teams to get about their average trips to the free throw line (20.55 for the Vols and 19.21 for the Bulldogs).

Summary and Score Prediction

Both teams sport high-powered, efficient-shooting offenses, but the Vols’ shooting defense should have more of an impact on the Bulldogs than vice versa. Tennessee also has an advantage in protecting the ball.

The danger for the Vols comes after Mississippi State misses shots. The Bulldogs are good at getting offensive rebounds, and Tennessee’s not especially well-equipped to keep them from doing it. Plus, I wonder if it’s more difficult to defend against good shooting teams after they get offensive rebounds when the defense is out of position.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Make the most of their advantage in efficient shooting percentage.
2. Box out. Get the rebound.
3. When the Bulldogs get an offensive rebound, get back into proper defensive position quickly.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 78% chance of winning this one and puts the score at Tennessee 79, Mississippi State 71.

Go Vols.

Let’s return to a question we posed before the Kentucky game: would you rather be the one seed in Kansas City, or the two seed in Louisville?

I’m not worried about the difference between playing a 15 or 16 seed, or even the potential quality of opponent in the Sweet 16. If Tennessee is trying to make its first Final Four and win the national championship, you want the easiest path to get there. And while we’ll break down the bracket as soon as it’s released like everyone else, in the advanced stats world, three teams have separated themselves at the top: Virginia, and the full-strength versions of Gonzaga and Duke.

They’re 1-2-3 everywhere you look, with the exception of the AP and Coaches Polls. North Carolina is third in both of those, set for a rematch with probably-full-strength #4 Duke on Saturday. The head-to-head police applaud the Tar Heels being ranked above the Blue Devils for now. We’ll see if that holds.

But everywhere else – Bracket Matrix, KenPom, NET, and Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology – Virginia, Gonzaga, and Duke are 1-2-3 in some order.

In KenPom, those three teams are somewhere between a 6-8 point favorite against Tennessee on a neutral floor. The Vols are currently seventh in KenPom, but within one possession of the other three teams in front of them (and the next four behind them). When we get closer to Selection Sunday, we can argue for Tennessee’s resume – which is outstanding, by the way, and with the win over Kentucky now includes another elite victory to go with the two overtime losses and Rupp Arena bullet point. Tennessee deserves to be ranked higher than they are right now, and I can make a plenty good argument that they deserve that fourth one seed.

But if we’re talking about ratings instead of rankings? Virginia and full-strength Gonzaga and Duke have separated themselves from the field. Those are the only three teams that would be more than a push against Tennessee. If we’re trying to survive and advance? I’d like to see those three teams in the Final Four, and not before. And the best way to do that is to grab that last one seed.

I think Tennessee’s odds of getting to Minneapolis are higher as the one seed in Kansas City than the two seed with a short drive to Louisville, if that drive ends with facing Virginia or Duke in the Elite Eight. Let’s be clear: we’re trying to win the national championship, which could very well mean going through those teams eventually. But when we’re also trying to make the Final Four for the first time ever? Let’s save it for Minneapolis.

The good news for Tennessee: I think they control their own destiny for that last one seed.

A Rick Barnes vs Ben Howland Showdown of Old

Fun fact: Barnes beat the Russell Westbrook/Kevin Love UCLA team at Texas.

It took Howland an extra year to get here, but Mississippi State is a six seed and climbing in the latest Bracket Matrix. The Bulldogs started 12-1 with an impressive set of non-conference wins (St. Mary’s, Clemson, Cincinnati, and the last team to beat Wofford on December 19). Then they opened conference play with an overtime loss to South Carolina and a four point loss to an Ole Miss team we still weren’t sure of. Since then they’ve gone 9-5, including two losses to Kentucky and an overtime loss to LSU. They ripped off five straight wins over lower-tier SEC foes before falling at Auburn 80-75 on Saturday. Their most impressive road win is at Ole Miss (who returned the favor in Starkville), but they lost at South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn.

Tennessee blew out this team in late February last season on the road behind 24 points from Admiral Schofield, then got a much tougher challenge in the SEC Tournament before prevailing 62-59.

This is another good offensive team, led by Quindary Weatherspoon and fueled by what Lamar Peters gives them from the point. 6’10” Aric Holman is back and joined by 6’10” freshman Reggie Perry, who has been great on the offensive glass. The Bulldogs as a team are 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage and 36th in effective field goal percentage, shooting it well inside and outside the arc.

They also lead the league in blocks and steals, but have been victimized by the three ball (36.6% allowed, 12th worst in the league). When they create chaos, they win: 15-2 when they force at least 13 turnovers (with losses to LSU and Kentucky), 6-6 when they don’t.

The Vols will need to be clean, and they’ll need to be good defensively again. This will be the fourth Top 20 offense the Vols have faced this season, and Auburn will make five on Saturday. For Tennessee to earn that last one seed, the defense we saw against Kentucky must become the rule.

Just like they drew it up for a critical final week battle: 9:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this week, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Monday

Tonight we’re rooting for Syracuse over Virginia.

Tuesday

The first order of business Tuesday is the Vols taking care of business at home against Mississippi State at 9:00 on the SEC Network.

But we’re also rooting for Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Kentucky to all lose. Kansas can win.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, we want Florida to beat LSU.

Thursday

Root for SMU to upset Houston Thursday night.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this week:

After adding two more Quadrant 1 wins to their resume this past week, the Tennessee Volunteers moved from No. 7 to No. 4 in the all-important NET Rankings.

Here’s the summary version of the team sheets for the Top 8 teams in the most current NET Rankings (games through Saturday, March 2, 2019)

Comparing to last week, Tennessee’s Q1 record changed from 5-3 to 7-3. The only other team in the current Top 8 to improve its Q1 record was UNC, which went from 7-5 to 8-5 by beating Clemson.

Meanwhile, Kentucky took another Q1 loss and went from 9-3 to 9-4 (hi!). Duke and Houston also each took another Q1 loss, the Blue Devils going from 8-2 to 8-3 and Houston going from 4-1 to 4-2. Michigan State took a double hit, going from 11-3 to 10-4, meaning they not only lost to Indiana, they lost a Q1 win to Q2 due to Iowa losing the NET Ranking that used to qualify it as a Q1 team.

Gonzaga and Virginia both kept the same Q1 record they had last week.

That’s a pretty good week for Tennessee. They can’t be that far behind Duke, which has one more Q1 win but also one Q2 loss to the Vols’ none. Blame the efficiency numbers and the computers that love them there.

Opportunities moving forward

Tennessee still has two additional Q1 opportunities to go in the remainder of the regular season. They host Mississippi State tomorrow and travel to Auburn Saturday.

Virginia is the only other team in the current Top 8 that has two more regular-season Q1 opportunities (Louisville and at Syracuse). Go Cards and Orange.

Kentucky has one left (at Ole Miss), Houston has one left (at Cincinnati), and Duke and North Carolina play each other. Go Heels.

Gonzaga is done for the regular season already, and the Bulldogs just have to hope that everyone else blows their opportunities this week. The only thing that can explain them being ahead of Virginia right now is that they’ve played more games, and now that they’re done, their hold on the No. 1 spot is in jeopardy.

Virginia could finish with an 11-2 (or 11-4) Q1 record. Duke and Tennessee could both finish 9-3. You still have the conference tournaments, of course, but you would have to think that all three of those records would beat out Gonzaga’s regular-season 4-2.

Meanwhile, the Bracket Matrix still has Tennessee as the first No. 2 seed, behind Kentucky. I expect that to change once everybody updates.

The Vols still need to take care of business this week against Mississippi State and Auburn, but they have a real opportunity in front of them. And if Virginia stumbles and UNC beats Duke, things could get really interesting in the conference tournaments.

The best blueprint to beat Tennessee was fairly straightforward: get to the free throw line. The only teams to do it – Kansas (34), Kentucky (33), and LSU (31) – all got to the stripe at least 30 times, and all shot at least 15 more free throws than the Vols. Getting to the line slows Tennessee’s transition game, strains a fairly thin rotation, and makes UT’s elite offense merely very good.

Kentucky didn’t get 30 today, but they got 29. Tennessee was again on the wrong side of the disparity at -15. The Vols like jump shots (and are very good at them) and as a result won’t always shoot as many free throws, but when a team can defend the strength of Grant Williams inside without a ton of help, it can make Tennessee’s offense one-dimensional.

No matter what you thought of the officiating, Kentucky significantly outpaced the Vols at the stripe.

They lost by 19.

To be clear, Grant Williams and Jordan Bone were outstanding. Williams has never been so good against Kentucky, Bone never at all. And when one guard was on fire, the other fanned the flames: six assists from Lamonte Turner three days after he was the primary back court scorer? This team is so unselfish.

These Vols are obviously alive and well in the “best season ever” conversation. But it was going to be highly unfortunate to have that conversation without a win against Kentucky. You can check that box: that’s now 4-0 for Rick Barnes against Kentucky in Knoxville, where the Vols have won 8 of 12. And since Barnes’ arrival, Tennessee is now 5-4 against the Cats, none more satisfying than a 19-point beat down of a top five Calipari squad.

Tennessee beat Kentucky today because Williams and Bone were excellent. But the Vols routed the Cats, in spite of the -15 free throw differential, because of their defense.

Kentucky made 14 shots. Fourteen. Their previous season low was 20 against Cuonzo’s defense. The last time they made so few shots was against South Carolina five years ago.

Several of those 14 shots were of the tip-your-cap variety, some combination of great ball movement and a tough shot dropping. But far more often than not, Tennessee’s defense was everywhere. It was noticeable to the eye on every possession: more pressure on guards, better help on shooters, better everything. And not just better, but championship level good.

In Lexington, Kentucky shot 54.7%, the highest percentage the Vols have allowed all year. In Knoxville, Kentucky shot 31.8%, the lowest percentage the Vols have allowed in SEC play. In Lexington, Kentucky had 10 turnovers. In Knoxville, it was 17.

Lexington was the exception – the wake-up call, the face-punch, whatever you like – where Tennessee played its worst game of the year on so many levels. If the Vols want to win a national championship, today’s defense has to be the rule.

The Vols are now back on the edge of the Top 30 in defensive efficiency, swiftly closing in on the Top 20 mark almost every champion hits. They will immediately get more chances to shine: Mississippi State is 16th in offensive efficiency, Auburn 12th. To win the SEC, to earn a one seed, and to advance deep into March, the Vols need today’s defense. Their offense is good enough to have a chance to win everywhere that isn’t Rupp. But with today’s defense, the team that beat them in Rupp took an even bigger beating in Knoxville. The Vols were already a contender. If today’s defense becomes the rule and not the exception, it can make them a champion.

Nearly two weeks ago, the Kentucky Wildcats beat the Tennessee Volunteers 86-69 in Lexington, and while most everyone else immediately commenced the meltdown, Will simply posed the question of whether the Vols had been educated or exposed by the experience.

A listless performance against the SEC’s worst team, a two-point loss to LSU, and a two-point win over Ole Miss later, and the growing consensus was a rousing and all caps EXPOSED, never mind the fact that the level of competition had increased significantly.

Today’s rematch with Kentucky in Thompson-Boling ended with a 71-52 win for the Vols and a vote of confidence for those in the “educated” camp. Tennessee today looked again like the team that blew through January and February without even trying, and they did it against a rival that was also a legitimate threat to earn a much-coveted 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Jordan Bone was flawless, scoring a career-high 27 points, many of them at key moments when the cornered Wildcats hissed something about coming back and making it a game. Bone just tossed them around by the scruff of the neck, going 11-15 from the field and a perfect 5-5 from the arc, and he added three rebounds, three assists, and two steals just for good measure.

Not shown in the box score is the fact that Bone owns the keys to this offense. He may loan them to Grant Williams regularly, but Bone is the guy that makes this thing go. When he’s at his best, Tennessee’s offense is unstoppable.

Speaking of Williams, he, too, was a major factor in this game. His stat line: 24 points on 7-13 shooting from the field and 2-4 shooting from three, 8-11 from the free throw line, 7 boards, 2 assists, and a steal.

The best news for Tennessee and its fans may be that the game was won with a defensive effort we haven’t seen much this year.

The Vols’ offense looked like it just got unstuck from the mud, and the buys shot better against the ‘Cats this time both from the field and from the arc. But the real story is the impact the defense had on Kentucky’s shooting percentages this time around.

In the first meeting this season, Kentucky shot 54.7% from the field and 38.5% from the arc. Today? Only 31.8% from the field and 26.3% from three. That’s a huge difference, enough to negate a continued advantage for the Wildcats in free throw and still provide a 19-point cushion.

Credit everybody involved, including whoever came up with the gameplan for Kentucky’s P.J. Washington. In the first game, Washington had 23 points, but today the Vols held him to 13. Somebody figured out that he is allergic to the baseline, and the post defenders played him high, taking the middle away as an option and forcing him into help where he made bad decisions.

Despite the payback win, there are still some concerns and opportunities for improvement for the Vols. Three-point shooting is still an issue, as Lamonte Turner and Admiral Schofield were a combined 0-10 from the arc. Whether that’s shot selection (probably) or something else, they need to start hitting those or stop taking as many of them. Jordan Bowden — also in a recent three-point shooting slump — did hit 1 of 3 attempts. All of those guys had good games otherwise, but missing shots from three too often is becoming an ongoing concern.

Also, much like Schofield did earlier in the season, Kyle Alexander has now struggled for several games in a row. It’s getting to the point where it looks like John Fulkerson is being more productive, and might be what led Rick Barnes to starting Derrick Walker in the second half.

In addition to those two things, 29 free throw attempts for your opponent (to your own 14) is a very dangerous thing to keep playing around with.

But this was not only a huge Quadrant 1 win for the Tennessee Volunteers, it was a definitive answer to the question of whether the earlier loss to Kentucky was a hard bump against a low ceiling or merely an educational experience.

We have our answer, and now we get to see how far it can take us.

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with No. 7 Tennessee (25-3, 13-2) hosting No. 4 Kentucky (24-4, 13-2).

Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

• Tipoff: 2:00
• TV: CBS
• Official video streaming: CBS
• Official audio streaming: Vol Network
• Live stats

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today and tomorrow, curated just for Vols fans:

And here’s the complete list of this weekend’s games in case you’re looking for something else:

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And in case you missed any of it, here’s some additional reading material to get you game-ready:

• All Roads Lead Through Kentucky
• Tennessee-Kentucky four-factors preview: Defend better, shoot much better
• Tennessee 73, Ole Miss 71: four-factors review
• Vols need to make the most of their upcoming Quadrant 1 opportunities

Here’s our list of games worth watching this weekend, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Saturday

The only game that really matters to Vols fans today, of course, is the Tennessee-Kentucky game at 2:00 on CBS.

No. 2 Virginia is on at the same time, and it would be cool if Tennessee won and Virginia lost, but the Cabs aren’t likely to lose to Pittsburgh.

In the noon slate, we’re rooting for Kansas to win, but for Michigan State and LSU to both lose.

In the evening slot, we’d like to see any or all of Duke, North Carolina, and Houston to lose. And hey, if Gonzaga wants to go down to St. Mary’s while we’re sleeping, we’ll give a good woo in the morning.

Sunday

The only game worth watching tomorrow is No. 9 Michigan vs. No. 17 Maryland. Go Terps.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this weekend:

As Will said earlier, no game matters more to the Vols’ hopes for a 1-seed than tomorrow’s rematch with Kentucky.

But if the Vols are going to make this a game, they’re going to have to do a lot better in Thompson-Boling than they did at Rupp. Two weeks ago, Tennessee allowed Kentucky to squeeze the last little bit of juice out of its advantage getting to the free throw line, and at the same time, failed miserably at getting anything out of its own advantage in shooting percentage. If they’re going to do better tomorrow, they’ll have to do better at those two things.

We’ve updated the teams’ respective four factors numbers below to remind ourselves what’s most important tomorrow and why.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 55.9 (No. 16) (holding steady at 55.9 (No. 15))
• Kentucky 53.6 (No. 59)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)
• LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
• Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
• Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)

Conclusions: Kentucky has been shooting the ball better lately, while Tennessee has been on a bit of a slide. But the Vols are still more efficient than the Wildcats. The advantage for the Vols was even more pronounced heading into the game two weeks ago, but they completely and totally squandered it. Tennessee shot only 40.7% from the field to Kentucky’s 54.7%, and they shot only 28% from the arc to Kentucky’s 38.5%.

The Vols have to do much better than that. The good news is that they can and usually do.

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.9 (No. 24) (holding steady at 15.9 (No. 23))
• Kentucky 18.7 (No. 185)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)
• LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
• Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
• Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)

Conclusions: The Vols still have the advantage here despite a tendency to be a bit more generous lately than they were early in the season.

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 31.3 (No. 86) (down from 31.8 (No. 74))
• Kentucky 37.9 (No. 4)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)
• LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
• Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
• Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)

Conclusions: This is what Kentucky does best.

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 34.6 (No. 141) (down from 34.8 (No. 136))
• Kentucky 42.2 (No. 14)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)
• LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
• Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
• Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)

Conclusions: The Wildcats are extremely good at getting to the free throw line as well.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.9 (No. 16), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 47.0 (No. 31).

When Kentucky has the ball

The Wildcats’ shooting offense is 53.6 (No. 59), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.9 (No. 27).

Conclusions

Even when you account for the defenses, this is a paper advantage for the Vols. They cannot squander it like they did in their first meeting with Kentucky.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.9 (No. 24), while the Wildcats’ turnover defense is 19.6 (No. 115).

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s turnover % is 18.7 (No. 185), but Tennessee’s turnover defense isn’t any better, at 18.5 (No. 187).

Conclusions

Tennessee appears to have a slight advantage in the turnover category tomorrow. In the first meeting, the Vols had 9 to the Wildcats’ 11. It really wasn’t a factor, and it doesn’t look like it will be much of one tomorrow, either.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 31.3 (No. 86), while Kentucky’s defense in that category is 26.0 (No. 69).

When Kentucky has the ball

The Wildcats’ OR% is 37.9 (No. 4), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.0 (No. 252), which makes this the biggest advantage of the game for the Kentucky offense.

Conclusions

Kentucky has a distinct advantage over Tennessee on the boards. This was a problem in the prior game, as Kentucky had 39 rebounds to Tennessee’s 26. They had 12 offensive boards to the Vols’ 9. They’ll likely outrebound Tennessee again tomorrow, but the Vols need to make sure it’s not a runaway train.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.6 (No. 141), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 26.3 (No. 24).

When Kentucky has the ball

The Wildcats’ FT Rate is 42.2 (No. 14), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 33.3 (No. 190).

Conclusions

This, too, is a huge advantage on paper for Kentucky. It, along with Tennessee’s uncharacteristic poor shooting, was one of the primary reasons the game at Rupp went south. The Wildcats shot 33 free throws to Tennessee’s 18. They’ll probably have the advantage again tomorrow because it’s what they do. But the Vols have to do much better than that.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee absolutely must do a better job of making the most of its apparent advantage in shooting efficiency this time around. If they can do that, and if they can minimize the Wildcats’ advantages in getting rebounds and free throw attempts, this game will likely come down to the wire.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Run the offense through the elbow and/or the post. Take good shots. Shoot jumpers only if they’re wide open off a good assist. Otherwise, drive to the bucket to hopefully draw some fouls.
2. Box out. Get the rebound.
3. Limit the Wildcats’ penetration. Stay between the ball and the basket. Defend without fouling. Don’t foul jump shooters.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 59% chance of winning this one and puts the score at Tennessee 73, Kentucky 71.

Go Vols.