Gameday on Rocky Top

The best blueprint to beat Tennessee was fairly straightforward: get to the free throw line. The only teams to do it – Kansas (34), Kentucky (33), and LSU (31) – all got to the stripe at least 30 times, and all shot at least 15 more free throws than the Vols. Getting to the line slows Tennessee’s transition game, strains a fairly thin rotation, and makes UT’s elite offense merely very good.

Kentucky didn’t get 30 today, but they got 29. Tennessee was again on the wrong side of the disparity at -15. The Vols like jump shots (and are very good at them) and as a result won’t always shoot as many free throws, but when a team can defend the strength of Grant Williams inside without a ton of help, it can make Tennessee’s offense one-dimensional.

No matter what you thought of the officiating, Kentucky significantly outpaced the Vols at the stripe.

They lost by 19.

To be clear, Grant Williams and Jordan Bone were outstanding. Williams has never been so good against Kentucky, Bone never at all. And when one guard was on fire, the other fanned the flames: six assists from Lamonte Turner three days after he was the primary back court scorer? This team is so unselfish.

These Vols are obviously alive and well in the “best season ever” conversation. But it was going to be highly unfortunate to have that conversation without a win against Kentucky. You can check that box: that’s now 4-0 for Rick Barnes against Kentucky in Knoxville, where the Vols have won 8 of 12. And since Barnes’ arrival, Tennessee is now 5-4 against the Cats, none more satisfying than a 19-point beat down of a top five Calipari squad.

Tennessee beat Kentucky today because Williams and Bone were excellent. But the Vols routed the Cats, in spite of the -15 free throw differential, because of their defense.

Kentucky made 14 shots. Fourteen. Their previous season low was 20 against Cuonzo’s defense. The last time they made so few shots was against South Carolina five years ago.

Several of those 14 shots were of the tip-your-cap variety, some combination of great ball movement and a tough shot dropping. But far more often than not, Tennessee’s defense was everywhere. It was noticeable to the eye on every possession: more pressure on guards, better help on shooters, better everything. And not just better, but championship level good.

In Lexington, Kentucky shot 54.7%, the highest percentage the Vols have allowed all year. In Knoxville, Kentucky shot 31.8%, the lowest percentage the Vols have allowed in SEC play. In Lexington, Kentucky had 10 turnovers. In Knoxville, it was 17.

Lexington was the exception – the wake-up call, the face-punch, whatever you like – where Tennessee played its worst game of the year on so many levels. If the Vols want to win a national championship, today’s defense has to be the rule.

The Vols are now back on the edge of the Top 30 in defensive efficiency, swiftly closing in on the Top 20 mark almost every champion hits. They will immediately get more chances to shine: Mississippi State is 16th in offensive efficiency, Auburn 12th. To win the SEC, to earn a one seed, and to advance deep into March, the Vols need today’s defense. Their offense is good enough to have a chance to win everywhere that isn’t Rupp. But with today’s defense, the team that beat them in Rupp took an even bigger beating in Knoxville. The Vols were already a contender. If today’s defense becomes the rule and not the exception, it can make them a champion.

Nearly two weeks ago, the Kentucky Wildcats beat the Tennessee Volunteers 86-69 in Lexington, and while most everyone else immediately commenced the meltdown, Will simply posed the question of whether the Vols had been educated or exposed by the experience.

A listless performance against the SEC’s worst team, a two-point loss to LSU, and a two-point win over Ole Miss later, and the growing consensus was a rousing and all caps EXPOSED, never mind the fact that the level of competition had increased significantly.

Today’s rematch with Kentucky in Thompson-Boling ended with a 71-52 win for the Vols and a vote of confidence for those in the “educated” camp. Tennessee today looked again like the team that blew through January and February without even trying, and they did it against a rival that was also a legitimate threat to earn a much-coveted 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Jordan Bone was flawless, scoring a career-high 27 points, many of them at key moments when the cornered Wildcats hissed something about coming back and making it a game. Bone just tossed them around by the scruff of the neck, going 11-15 from the field and a perfect 5-5 from the arc, and he added three rebounds, three assists, and two steals just for good measure.

Not shown in the box score is the fact that Bone owns the keys to this offense. He may loan them to Grant Williams regularly, but Bone is the guy that makes this thing go. When he’s at his best, Tennessee’s offense is unstoppable.

Speaking of Williams, he, too, was a major factor in this game. His stat line: 24 points on 7-13 shooting from the field and 2-4 shooting from three, 8-11 from the free throw line, 7 boards, 2 assists, and a steal.

The best news for Tennessee and its fans may be that the game was won with a defensive effort we haven’t seen much this year.

The Vols’ offense looked like it just got unstuck from the mud, and the buys shot better against the ‘Cats this time both from the field and from the arc. But the real story is the impact the defense had on Kentucky’s shooting percentages this time around.

In the first meeting this season, Kentucky shot 54.7% from the field and 38.5% from the arc. Today? Only 31.8% from the field and 26.3% from three. That’s a huge difference, enough to negate a continued advantage for the Wildcats in free throw and still provide a 19-point cushion.

Credit everybody involved, including whoever came up with the gameplan for Kentucky’s P.J. Washington. In the first game, Washington had 23 points, but today the Vols held him to 13. Somebody figured out that he is allergic to the baseline, and the post defenders played him high, taking the middle away as an option and forcing him into help where he made bad decisions.

Despite the payback win, there are still some concerns and opportunities for improvement for the Vols. Three-point shooting is still an issue, as Lamonte Turner and Admiral Schofield were a combined 0-10 from the arc. Whether that’s shot selection (probably) or something else, they need to start hitting those or stop taking as many of them. Jordan Bowden — also in a recent three-point shooting slump — did hit 1 of 3 attempts. All of those guys had good games otherwise, but missing shots from three too often is becoming an ongoing concern.

Also, much like Schofield did earlier in the season, Kyle Alexander has now struggled for several games in a row. It’s getting to the point where it looks like John Fulkerson is being more productive, and might be what led Rick Barnes to starting Derrick Walker in the second half.

In addition to those two things, 29 free throw attempts for your opponent (to your own 14) is a very dangerous thing to keep playing around with.

But this was not only a huge Quadrant 1 win for the Tennessee Volunteers, it was a definitive answer to the question of whether the earlier loss to Kentucky was a hard bump against a low ceiling or merely an educational experience.

We have our answer, and now we get to see how far it can take us.

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with No. 7 Tennessee (25-3, 13-2) hosting No. 4 Kentucky (24-4, 13-2).

Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

• Tipoff: 2:00
• TV: CBS
• Official video streaming: CBS
• Official audio streaming: Vol Network
• Live stats

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today and tomorrow, curated just for Vols fans:

And here’s the complete list of this weekend’s games in case you’re looking for something else:

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And in case you missed any of it, here’s some additional reading material to get you game-ready:

• All Roads Lead Through Kentucky
• Tennessee-Kentucky four-factors preview: Defend better, shoot much better
• Tennessee 73, Ole Miss 71: four-factors review
• Vols need to make the most of their upcoming Quadrant 1 opportunities

Here’s our list of games worth watching this weekend, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Saturday

The only game that really matters to Vols fans today, of course, is the Tennessee-Kentucky game at 2:00 on CBS.

No. 2 Virginia is on at the same time, and it would be cool if Tennessee won and Virginia lost, but the Cabs aren’t likely to lose to Pittsburgh.

In the noon slate, we’re rooting for Kansas to win, but for Michigan State and LSU to both lose.

In the evening slot, we’d like to see any or all of Duke, North Carolina, and Houston to lose. And hey, if Gonzaga wants to go down to St. Mary’s while we’re sleeping, we’ll give a good woo in the morning.

Sunday

The only game worth watching tomorrow is No. 9 Michigan vs. No. 17 Maryland. Go Terps.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this weekend:

As Will said earlier, no game matters more to the Vols’ hopes for a 1-seed than tomorrow’s rematch with Kentucky.

But if the Vols are going to make this a game, they’re going to have to do a lot better in Thompson-Boling than they did at Rupp. Two weeks ago, Tennessee allowed Kentucky to squeeze the last little bit of juice out of its advantage getting to the free throw line, and at the same time, failed miserably at getting anything out of its own advantage in shooting percentage. If they’re going to do better tomorrow, they’ll have to do better at those two things.

We’ve updated the teams’ respective four factors numbers below to remind ourselves what’s most important tomorrow and why.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 55.9 (No. 16) (holding steady at 55.9 (No. 15))
• Kentucky 53.6 (No. 59)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)
• LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
• Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
• Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)

Conclusions: Kentucky has been shooting the ball better lately, while Tennessee has been on a bit of a slide. But the Vols are still more efficient than the Wildcats. The advantage for the Vols was even more pronounced heading into the game two weeks ago, but they completely and totally squandered it. Tennessee shot only 40.7% from the field to Kentucky’s 54.7%, and they shot only 28% from the arc to Kentucky’s 38.5%.

The Vols have to do much better than that. The good news is that they can and usually do.

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.9 (No. 24) (holding steady at 15.9 (No. 23))
• Kentucky 18.7 (No. 185)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)
• LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
• Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
• Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)

Conclusions: The Vols still have the advantage here despite a tendency to be a bit more generous lately than they were early in the season.

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 31.3 (No. 86) (down from 31.8 (No. 74))
• Kentucky 37.9 (No. 4)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)
• LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
• Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
• Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)

Conclusions: This is what Kentucky does best.

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 34.6 (No. 141) (down from 34.8 (No. 136))
• Kentucky 42.2 (No. 14)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)
• LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
• Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
• Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)

Conclusions: The Wildcats are extremely good at getting to the free throw line as well.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.9 (No. 16), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 47.0 (No. 31).

When Kentucky has the ball

The Wildcats’ shooting offense is 53.6 (No. 59), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.9 (No. 27).

Conclusions

Even when you account for the defenses, this is a paper advantage for the Vols. They cannot squander it like they did in their first meeting with Kentucky.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.9 (No. 24), while the Wildcats’ turnover defense is 19.6 (No. 115).

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s turnover % is 18.7 (No. 185), but Tennessee’s turnover defense isn’t any better, at 18.5 (No. 187).

Conclusions

Tennessee appears to have a slight advantage in the turnover category tomorrow. In the first meeting, the Vols had 9 to the Wildcats’ 11. It really wasn’t a factor, and it doesn’t look like it will be much of one tomorrow, either.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 31.3 (No. 86), while Kentucky’s defense in that category is 26.0 (No. 69).

When Kentucky has the ball

The Wildcats’ OR% is 37.9 (No. 4), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.0 (No. 252), which makes this the biggest advantage of the game for the Kentucky offense.

Conclusions

Kentucky has a distinct advantage over Tennessee on the boards. This was a problem in the prior game, as Kentucky had 39 rebounds to Tennessee’s 26. They had 12 offensive boards to the Vols’ 9. They’ll likely outrebound Tennessee again tomorrow, but the Vols need to make sure it’s not a runaway train.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.6 (No. 141), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 26.3 (No. 24).

When Kentucky has the ball

The Wildcats’ FT Rate is 42.2 (No. 14), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 33.3 (No. 190).

Conclusions

This, too, is a huge advantage on paper for Kentucky. It, along with Tennessee’s uncharacteristic poor shooting, was one of the primary reasons the game at Rupp went south. The Wildcats shot 33 free throws to Tennessee’s 18. They’ll probably have the advantage again tomorrow because it’s what they do. But the Vols have to do much better than that.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee absolutely must do a better job of making the most of its apparent advantage in shooting efficiency this time around. If they can do that, and if they can minimize the Wildcats’ advantages in getting rebounds and free throw attempts, this game will likely come down to the wire.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Run the offense through the elbow and/or the post. Take good shots. Shoot jumpers only if they’re wide open off a good assist. Otherwise, drive to the bucket to hopefully draw some fouls.
2. Box out. Get the rebound.
3. Limit the Wildcats’ penetration. Stay between the ball and the basket. Defend without fouling. Don’t foul jump shooters.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 59% chance of winning this one and puts the score at Tennessee 73, Kentucky 71.

Go Vols.

Welcome to March.

Ric Flair turned 70 this week (woo). So yes, to be the man, you’ve gotta beat the man. And yes, generally speaking, Kentucky gets to be the man in the SEC until someone else takes it from them on a regular basis.

But it’s also true that the Vols are defending SEC Champions, 3-0 against the Cats in Knoxville under Rick Barnes, and 7-4 in the last 11 meetings at Thompson-Boling.

LSU is certainly still alive in the conference race; they’ll have to earn it in Tuscaloosa and Gainesville down the stretch. But Tennessee and Kentucky are playing for something more. Only one can earn a one seed. After what happened in Lexington, and because the Cats are the Cats, Tennessee must go through Kentucky. But after what has happened on a regular basis for more than a decade in this building, Kentucky must go through Knoxville.

No game will impact Tennessee’s fate in the bracket more than this one.

So much of Tennessee’s resume is in the fall of 2018. It’s not just Gonzaga on December 9; in KenPom, Tennessee’s second-best win is Louisville on November 21. Its overtime loss to Kansas was two days later.

KenPom still loves Mississippi State (20th) and Auburn (16th), Tennessee’s opponents next week. But ye olde Bracket Matrix, not so much: the Bulldogs are a six seed, the Tigers an eight. Those are wins to shore up an argument for a number one seed. But to have the argument at all, the Vols have to beat Kentucky.

Gonzaga is atop the NET ratings, and unless Pacific (#220 KenPom) or St. Mary’s (#34, but lost 94-46 when last they met) want to do something about it, the Bulldogs should be a lock for the one seed in Anaheim. Gonzaga might have the best offense of the century in college basketball, but still can’t overtake Virginia in KenPom. The Cavaliers, whose only crime is losing to Duke by two in Durham and by 13 threes in Charlottesville, finishes with Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Louisville. They’re a one seed.

And then, over the next nine days, you’ve got Kentucky at Tennessee, Duke at North Carolina, and Michigan at Michigan State.

If the Tar Heels – 23-5 with every loss to a Top 30 team – sweep the Blue Devils, you’ll have to consider putting them on the top line. If Duke wins, with or without Zion, it’ll only confirm everyone’s suspicion that they are, in fact, the highest ceiling in the bracket. One of those teams is a one seed.

How will the committee view the Big Ten challengers from Michigan and Michigan State? NET is not their ally, with the Spartans sixth and the Wolverines ninth. I think the Kentucky/Tennessee winner will have a more compelling case atop the bracket.

Somebody is going to Kansas City unwillingly, of course. If you pencil in Gonzaga in Anaheim and Virginia in Washington, is it as simple as the winner of Duke/North Carolina and the winner of Tennessee/Kentucky, with the committee’s choice going to Louisville?

Here’s the other thing: no teams from the same conference can be the 1 and 2 seed in the same region. If Duke and UVA are ones in Washington and Louisville, North Carolina is likely going to Kansas City. If you’re the Vols, would you rather:

• Be the one seed in Kansas City with North Carolina at #2
• Be the two seed in Louisville with Duke or Virginia at #1

Driving distance is nice, but that’s an easy call for me. If we’re going to see Duke or Virginia, I’d like it to be in Minneapolis, not trying to get there.

I’m sure something crazy will happen between now and Selection Sunday to blow all this up. But if Tennessee wants to be in the conversation at all, it has to beat Kentucky.

Learn, Don’t Burn

That feeling of, “Man, we didn’t play well and we’re only down six at halftime, and we’re still the number one team in the country,” from Rupp Arena feels like a while ago, though ’twas only 13 nights earlier. Here’s the worst-of-the-year list from that game, revisited:

• The Vols had 11 assists at Kentucky, which was immediately “topped” with only 10 in Baton Rouge
• The Vols blocked one (1) shot, a season low. Kentucky blocked six, a season high allowed.
• Kentucky shot 54.7%
• The Cats had 33 free throw attempts, joining Kansas (34) and LSU (31) as the only teams to get 30+ this year and, of course, beat the Vols

And here’s what’s still true for our friends from the Bluegrass:

• When Kentucky shoots at least 28% from three, the Cats are 21-0. When they don’t, they’re 3-4.
• When opponents shoot at least 21 free throws, the Cats are 0-3. When they don’t, they’re 24-1.

For all of these reasons, and the general tone of being punched in the face in Lexington, this will be a toughness win. Is Tennessee tough enough to be the aggressor against the Cats this time? Can the Vols run their offense, which all season has involved great ball movement with paint touches, against Kentucky’s size and athleticism? Can the Vols be mentally tough enough to not allow a team to shoot above its average from three?

The ceiling this team earned in December will now be tested, as it should be, in March. Anything can happen in the NCAA Tournament. But if the Vols want to get there via an SEC title and a one seed? Kentucky must go through Knoxville. Tennessee must go through Kentucky. Wouldn’t have it any other way.

Saturday, 2:00 PM, CBS. Go Vols.

The Tennessee Vols added another Quadrant 1 win to their resume last night with a 73-71 win over the Ole Miss Rebels in a hotly-contested game. Neither team really made the most of their opportunities, and the game came down to the wire. In the end, a Grant Williams power-drive to the rim from the free throw line sealed the deal for the Vols.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

We noted in our four-factors preview of this game that the Vols had an advantage on both sides of the ball in effective field goal percentage and said that they needed to make the most of it.

They did that, but only sort of. The overall percentages for both teams were 46.3% for the Vols and 40.7% for Ole Miss, and Tennessee shot 51.8% from the field. But they were also a miserable 3-13 (23.1%) from the arc. Admiral Schofield did his part from three, but the guards were cold. Lamonte Turner (who otherwise had a good night) was 1-4 from three, and the Jordans were a combined 0-6.

The Vols did outshoot Ole Miss, and they remain at No. 15 in EFG% per KenPom, but it’s hard to say they made the most of their advantage in this area. The guards, especially Jordan Bowden and Lamonte Turner, need to regain their form from three.

Turnover Percentage

Here’s what we said about turnovers in our game preview:

On paper in the offensive and defensive turnover categories, Ole Miss looks essentially the same as LSU. The turnover box score in the Vols game against the Tigers was 14 turnovers for Tennessee to 7 for LSU. If form holds, we should expect the Vols to once again have trouble protecting the ball, but they need to do better than that.

If the standard is “better than that,” then mission accomplished. Tennessee turned the ball over 9 times, but forced Ole Miss into 10 turnovers. It’s basically nothing more than what you’d want to see, but it’s a very good thing that they did not repeat one of the things that went wrong at LSU.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

We noted in the preview that both teams had distinct advantages on the offensive glass and that being able to make the most of this while mitigating the other’s advantage on the other side of the ball would be key.

Well, it turns out that neither team was really able to do that, although Ole Miss did a marginally better job. Both teams are averaging just a shade over 10 offensive rebounds per game, and last night, the Vols limited Ole Miss to 7 but grabbed only 4 of their own.

Tennessee ORB% took a major hit last night, falling from No. 65 to No. 87. The defensive numbers improved from No. 261 to No. 251, but that’s not much comfort.

Free Throw Rate

Here’s what we said in our preview about Free Throw Rate:

Shrug. Neither team is especially good at getting to the line, but both defenses are pretty good at sending their opponents there anyway. Like the OR%, this is another even matchup where a team doing better than it normally does can secure for itself an important surprise advantage. The good news for Tennessee is that, although they were done in by both Kentucky and LSU in this category, they were able to keep it from happening against Vanderbilt despite the fact that Vandy usually does this well.

Shrug indeed, as this was another stalemate. The Vols went to the line 16 times while putting Ole Miss on the line 15 times. Neither team hit their average trips in this game. It should be said that Ole Miss did hit a really impressive 93.3% of its free throw attempts.

The Vols squandered some opportunities to make this game more comfortable, but they mostly shot and protected the ball well enough and made sure that Ole Miss didn’t take advantage of opportunities, either. And most importantly, the Vols added an extremely important Quadrant 1 win to their resume.

The No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers — in search of another all-important Quadrant 1 win — take on the Ole Miss Rebels tonight at 7:00 p.m. on the SEC Network.

That means it’s time to take a look at the teams’ respective four factors numbers, first as a straight-up comparison and then in the context of their opponent.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 55.9 (No. 15) (down from 56.1 (No. 12))
• Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)

Prior opponents:

• LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
• Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
• Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)

Conclusions: Tennessee’s shooting percentage has been trending downward lately, presumably due to the increased competition, but they are still quite good and are still a better-shooting team than Ole Miss. But the Rebels rank better in this category than any of the Vols’ last three opponents, including the two that beat them. Basically, expect both teams to shoot well.

Turnover %

• Tennessee 16.0 (No. 25) (down from 15.9 (No. 23))
• Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)

Prior opponents:

• LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
• Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
• Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)

Conclusions: The Vols have also been uncharacteristically generous in turning the ball over lately, but their numbers are still good despite the recent slide. Ole Miss appears to be roughly the same as the prior three opponents in this category.

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 31.9 (No. 65) (up from 31.8 (No. 74))
• Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)

Prior opponents:

• LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
• Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
• Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)

Conclusions: These two teams are evenly matched in this category, at least on the offensive side. The Rebels are better than Vandy, but not as daunting a challenge as either LSU or Kentucky.

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 34.8 (No. 136) (down from 35.3 (No. 127))
• Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)

Prior opponents:

• LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
• Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
• Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)

Conclusions: Well, this should be a welcome reprieve for the Vols tonight. All of the Vols’ last three opponents were Top 30 in getting to the free throw line, but the Rebels are ranked 200th.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.9 (No. 15), while Ole Miss’ defense against that is 49.7 (No. 130). The Vols need to make the most of this advantage on the offensive end.

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ shooting offense is 53.5 (No. 64), which is quite good. But Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.8 (No. 26). The Vols are improving in this area, but they’ll be challenged tonight.

Conclusions

The Vols should have the advantage on both sides of the ball in effective field goal percentage.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 16.0 (No. 25), while the Rebels’ turnover defense is 21.8 (No. 35). This is essentially the same ranking as LSU, which caused the Vols to double them up on turnovers, 14-7. The good guys need to do better than that this evening, but Ole Miss may cause them problems.

When Ole Miss has the ball

Ole Miss’ turnover % is 18.7 (No. 172), but Tennessee’s turnover defense isn’t any better, at 18.6 (No. 176). Yes, we said the same thing about LSU last week.

Conclusions

On paper in the offensive and defensive turnover categories, Ole Miss looks essentially the same as LSU. The turnover box score in the Vols game against the Tigers was 14 turnovers for Tennessee to 7 for LSU. If form holds, we should expect the Vols to once again have trouble protecting the ball, but they need to do better than that.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 31.9 (No. 65), a ranking that has been improving despite the increased competition as of late. In addition, Ole Miss’ defense in that category is 30.4 (No. 267), making this the biggest advantage of the night for the Tennessee offense.

When Ole Miss has the ball

On the other hand, the Rebels’ OR% is 31.9 (No. 64), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.3 (No. 261), which makes this the biggest advantage of the night for the Ole Miss offense.

Conclusions

Both teams have distinct advantages over the other on the offensive glass. Making the most of this while mitigating the other’s advantage will be extremely important.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.8 (No. 136), while Ole Miss’ defense against that is 33.5 (No. 192).

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ FT Rate is 32.8 (No. 200), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 33.6 (No. 196).

Conclusions

Shrug. Neither team is especially good at getting to the line, but both defenses are pretty good at sending their opponents there anyway. Like the OR%, this is another even matchup where a team doing better than it normally does can secure for itself an important surprise advantage. The good news for Tennessee is that, although they were done in by both Kentucky and LSU in this category, they were able to keep it from happening against Vanderbilt despite the fact that Vandy usually does this well.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee should shoot the ball better than Ole Miss this evening, but securing the ball is going to be both incredibly important and especially challenging. Both teams appear to be equally as good at getting offensive rebounds and equally as bad at getting to the line. With the matchups so even in these last two categories, I’m expecting the main battle to be there and the game to be decided by whichever team wins those two areas.

The goals for the Vols, then, should be (1) to minimize turnovers but don’t let them happen in bunches due to being frazzled, (2) to win the rebounding battle, and (3) to focus on getting to the free throw line more often than the Rebels.

KenPom has Tennessee winning this one 78-73.

Go Vols.

We last looked at the NCAA men’s basketball team sheets on February 5. At the time, the Vols were 19-1 overall and No. 4 in the NET Rankings, and we concluded that the machines were becoming a problem for the Vols’ NCAA resume because they didn’t like Tennessee’s defensive numbers.

Here’s how that same table looks now:

The KPI hates Tennessee as much as Dan Wolken, and the other computers aren’t especially fond of the Vols, either. And yet, the NET Rankings don’t seem bothered at all that the machines are even less impressed with Houston.

That’s probably a pretty good (and reasonably comforting) indication that even though the NCAA Selection Committee members may lean to some degree on the ancillary information included on the team sheets, the NET Rankings themselves are using their own formulations to rank the teams. Even more importantly, it’s beginning to appear that actual game results are being valued more by the NET Rankings than efficiency numbers, which is also comforting.

If you look at the Records section of the above table, the only reasonable explanation for Houston being at No. 4 is that it’s the only team in the Top 8 to have only one loss. The three teams ahead of Houston all have two Quadrant 1 losses, but two of those three also have at least double Houston’s Quadrant 1 wins. I’ll talk about Gonzaga a bit more below.

None of the teams in the Top 8 have any Quadrant 3 or 4 losses. Only Duke, Kentucky, and Michigan State have Quadrant 2 losses. Michigan State is the only team with two Quadrant 2 losses (plus they’re are one of four teams in the Top 8 with three or more Quadrant 1 losses), but they also have at least two more Quadrant 1 wins than any other team.

What’s this mean for Tennessee?

Relative to most of the other teams in the Top 8, the primary weakness of Tennessee’s win/loss resume is the number of Quadrant 1 wins. Like the Vols, both Kentucky and Michigan State have 3 Q1 losses, and those two teams also have 1 and 2 Q2 losses, yet are ahead of Tennessee in the rankings. Why? It could be the non-Team Index numbers, sure, but it probably has more to do with the fact that the Vols have only 5 Q1 wins to Kentucky’s 9 and Michigan State’s 11.

Bottom line: The Vols need several more Q1 wins in a hurry.

The good news is that Tennessee is going to have the opportunity to do exactly that. Of their final four opponents of the regular season, all four are Q1 opponents. According to KenPom, the Vols are favored in three of those games, and the final one at Auburn is essentially a toss-up. Win out, and Tennessee’s Q1 resume goes from 5-3 to 9-3 with zero Q2, Q3, or Q4 losses.

While Tennessee has four Q1 opportunities still ahead, the others have only limited opportunities. Gonzaga and Houston each have only one Q1 opponent left, and Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State, and North Carolina each have two. The game between Tennessee and Kentucky at Thompson-Boling this Saturday is huge.

What about Gonzaga?

The fact that Gonzaga is No. 1 with an extremely similar record to No. 4 Houston should tip us off that the computers do still matter when trying to distinguish between similar teams.

The takeaway from that is that it’s still important for the Vols to improve their defensive efficiency, not only because doing so will increase the odds of them posting those all-important Q1 wins, but because doing so would make them more attractive to the computers and the efficiency calculation used by the NET Rankings.