Gameday on Rocky Top

The conference tournaments have been going on for a couple of days now, and the teams that Tennessee fans care most about start playing today. Besides the Vols, who should Tennessee fans watch and root for this week? We have answers. Or opinions, at least.

Here’s the latest info from the team sheets, updated through the games on Tuesday night and sorted by NET Rankings:

Gonzaga

Virginia overtakes Gonzaga for the top spot, as the Bulldogs lost this week to St. Mary’s. I thought that the Zags’ long hold on the top spot was in jeopardy when their regular season ended, so the thing that surprised me wasn’t that Virginia jumped them but that they didn’t fall further. They’re barely over .500 in Q1 wins (4-3), and their computer rankings don’t seem to justify that second spot. I won’t be surprised if they drop further as the ACC and SEC tournaments progress.

Virginia

As for the Cavaliers, nobody’s catching them for that top spot. They could help the Vols, though, by giving either Duke or North Carolina another loss thus maybe freeing up room below them on the 1-line.

Root for: Virginia to win out if it means beating either Duke or North Carolina. If either or both of Duke and North Carolina have already lost, root for Virginia to lose as well. It won’t matter, but hey.

Houston

I still don’t know what to make of Houston’s position among this group of teams, as they, like Gonzaga, haven’t played as many Q1 opponents as the other teams on the list. The Cougars will have a couple of make-or-break opportunities in the AAC Tourney, though, so we might find out if they’re truly legit this week. If the chalk holds, they’ll get UConn (No. 94 NET) tomorrow and two Q1 opponents in UCF (No. 28) on Saturday and Cincinnati (No. 27) on Sunday. Even if they win out, though, I don’t see how the Cougars stay in the fourth spot due to the better opportunities for the teams competing with them for it.

Root for: Houston to lose. The sooner the better.

Tennessee/Kentucky

The rest is where it gets especially interesting. The SEC Tournament will likely determine the pecking order between Tennessee and Kentucky. Assuming they each take care of business tomorrow, they’ll meet on Saturday. That game would decide which of them is the first SEC team in the NET Rankings and, assuming LSU awaits in the championship, could also give that team an additional (and important) Q1 opportunity.

Root for: Tennessee, Kentucky, and LSU to all win tomorrow and Tennessee to win out. If the Vols lose to Kentucky on Friday, root for Kentucky and LSU to both lose, the sooner the better.

Duke/North Carolina

Similarly, the ACC Tournament will likely determine the Duke-North Carolina pecking order. UNC plays Louisville tonight at 7:00, and Duke plays Syracuse after that. Assuming they both win, they’ll meet again tomorrow at 9:00. Whoever wins that will likely face Virginia on Saturday at 8:30.

Root for: Duke and North Carolina to both lose. If they play each other, root for UNC to win and hope the Selection Committee doesn’t want three ACC teams on the 1-line.

Here are the tip times (many are approximate) and TV schedules again for convenience:

Curated, through Friday:

Complete, through Friday:

As the Vols entered the NCAA Tournament last year, there was no blueprint. SEC Champions at 25-8 (13-5) and a No. 3 seed, Tennessee was capable of winning games in a variety of ways. Turns out we didn’t have the drawings for Kyle Alexander’s absence and divine intervention on a Loyola-Chicago bounce. You just never know in March. But that team had as good of a chance to advance in the NCAA Tournament as any in Tennessee’s history.

And, as we’ve known for months now, this year’s team is more than just better than last year.

March works both ways. The only Tennessee team to make the Elite Eight in 2010 lost five times in the regular season by double digits, then by 29 to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. They survived No. 11 seed San Diego State in round one, and took advantage of an upset in thrashing No. 14 Ohio in round two. And then they played one of the finest games in school history in beating No. 2 Ohio State, and were seconds away from the Final Four against No. 5 Michigan State.

Sometimes you get that path to the promised land: 11, 14, two, and five. Or the one that was in front of the Vols last season: 14, 11, then what would have been seven and nine in Atlanta.

Sometimes you get chalk. The next-closest Tennessee team to the promised land was 2007, who survived a knock-down, drag-out No. 4 vs No. 5 game with Virginia in the second round, then had a 20-point lead on No. 1 Ohio State before giving it away at the free throw line.

And sometimes you get 2014: millimeters away from firing the coach, then winning in overtime in the First Four, then beat downs of No. 6 UMass and another thrashing of another Cinderella in No. 14 Mercer in round two. And then falling to No. 2 Michigan in the Sweet 16 on a hotly disputed charge call.

When we throw around, “The best in school history,” how do we define it? In recent years, was it 2008? Ranked number one after another of the finest games in school history at Memphis, outright SEC Champions, but vanquished by 19 points in a bad match-up in the Sweet 16? Is it Pearl’s first team, easily one of the most memorable seasons in school history, who fought their way to a No. 2 seed only to fall in round two?

Seasons are always heavily influenced by where they end in March, but as all of them end with a loss save the champion, you have to be sure to celebrate appropriately along the way. Last year’s Vols got the nets and the SEC rings at 13-5. This year’s Vols went 15-3 and will come away empty handed on that particular piece of jewelry.

But everything, ultimately, is about giving yourself the best chance to win in the bracket. Not all jewelry is created equal. Build your team to produce its best basketball at the right time, and win enough games to make that path as easy as possible.

We love KenPom for many reasons, but one is its objectivity. So when ranking the best teams in recent history, it looks like this in that metric:

Season	KenPom	Finish
2014	23.69	S16
2018	22.27	R2
2008	22.17	S16
2006	19.44	R2
2010	18.50	E8
2007	18.29	S16

Cuonzo Martin’s last team, play-for-play, rated the best of this era before this season began. It lost a ton of close games (0-6 in games decided by six points or less) and rated 341st in luck in KenPom. But it was also capable of evisceration, as it did to Virginia by 35 and plenty of other teams down the stretch. This team, after all, had more NBA players on it than any in Tennessee’s recent history.

Meanwhile the 2008 Vols – 13-3 in games decided by six points or less – finished fourth in luck in KenPom. The 2010 Vols weren’t far behind at 20th, going 6-1 in games decided by six points or less before falling to Michigan State.

Which season is best or most memorable? Much of that is up to you to decide. You never know in March.

Here’s what we do know: no matter what happens in the SEC Tournament, this Tennessee team will be better positioned to make a run to the Final Four than any I’ve ever seen.

Tennessee’s current KenPom rating is 27.93. That would make them a 4-6 point favorite over 2008, 2014, and last season; they’d be almost a 10-point favorite over the 2010 Elite Eight squad. And they’re 145th in luck, going 4-3 in games decided by six points or less. As always, the best way to win close games is not to play them. And Tennessee is playing them against the right teams: five of those seven close game opponents are going to the NCAA Tournament, six if Alabama can get in.

This team has some incredible parts. Grant Williams just won SEC Player of the Year back-to-back. Admiral Schofield and Jordan Bone also earned first-or-second team all-conference honors. In the post-Ernie/Bernie era, only three Tennessee teams have placed three players on first-or-second All-SEC teams:

• 1981: Gary Carter, Dale Ellis, Howard Wood
• 2008: Chris Lofton, Tyler Smith, JaJuan Smith
• 2019: Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, Jordan Bone

We have seen incredible individual efforts from these guys. Grant Williams with 43 at Vanderbilt. Admiral Schofield with 30 against Gonzaga. Jordan Bone with 27 against Kentucky. But Tennessee’s best basketball still does not follow any individual blueprint. This goes the other way too: Lamonte Turner certainly struggled from the arc in Tennessee’s losses, but he also went a combined 0-for-7 in Tennessee’s two best performances of the season against Kentucky and Mississippi State, and had a signature performance in one of Tennessee’s best wins at Ole Miss.

We’re well-versed in what gets Tennessee beat: opponents getting to the free throw line far more often than the Vols. What qualifies as Tennessee’s best basketball is, in part, the opposite of this: great defense without putting the other team on the line. What the Vols did against Kentucky and Mississippi State is what will get them through in March.

But the Vols are also more than great individuals on the other end of the floor. The Vols are 24-1 when they have at least 15 assists, 3-3 when they don’t.

For all the strengths of their individuals, Tennessee’s best basketball still comes when the team flows together: a commitment to great defense without fouling, and an offense that flows through good ball movement creating great shots. One fly, we all fly indeed.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this week, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Monday

No. 1 Gonzaga is back in action this evening. If the Vols can make it to the Final Four, the Bulldogs may be one of the other teams there, so it’s time to start paying attention to them again.

The SEC Tournament

The SEC Tournament tips off Wednesday, and we’ll be watching the Vanderbilt-Texas A&M game at 9:00 on the SEC Network, as it is one of two early games in the Vols’ bracket. Tip times for tournament games, by the way, are often dependent on what time the immediately-prior game finishes, so many of the tip times are approximate.

The winner of the Commodores-Aggies game takes on Mississippi State around 9:00 on Thursday, also on the SECN, and then the winner of that one advances to meet the Vols at around 9:00 on Friday. That one’s on the SECN, too.

Meanwhile, LSU and Kentucky both also play their first games on Friday. The Tigers are on ESPN at 1:00, and Kentucky is on the SECN at 7:00.

Here’s the full SEC Tournament Bracket.

The ACC Tournament

Why should Vols fans care about the ACC Tournament? Because the 1-seed line is currently crowded with ACC teams. Virginia, Duke, and North Carolina are all in action on Thursday. The Cavaliers tip at 12:30 on ESPN, North Carolina tips at 7:00 on ESPN, and Duke tips around 9:00. All games are on ESPN, and, like the SEC Tournament games, many of the tip times are approximate.

The ACC Tourney continues on Friday, but there are no pre-seeded teams scheduled for that day, so you’ll just have to watch the ACC Tournament bracket for updates.

Other games of interest

In addition to the SEC and ACC Tournament games, Houston, Michigan State, and Michigan all have games scheduled for this Friday. Houston plays at noon on ESPN2, Michigan State plays at 12:30 on BTN, and Michigan plays at 9:25 on BTN.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this week. This was prepared Monday, 3/11/19, so by the time you see this, it TBD teams may have already been decided.

The Vols’ last game of the regular season didn’t turn out like they’d hoped, as they fell to the Auburn Tigers, 84-80. That, combined with LSU’s win over Vanderbilt resulted in LSU winning (for now — it may end up getting asterisked) the SEC Regular Season Championship with a 16-2 record.

It’s better to be disappointed now than two weeks from now, and this game can serve as a good, hard lesson to learn. The team made history this regular season, and yet when it came down to the last game, it couldn’t claim the thing that really mattered. The good news is that that wasn’t the final but the mid-term, and if the Vols can take that lesson into the NCAA Tournament, they can still ace the class.

The game against the Tigers could have turned out differently, of course, for a variety of reasons. Here’s a closer look at the outcome from a four-factors perspective.

In the preview, we said that we expected the following:

• The Vols would shoot well and have some negative impact on Auburn’s usual shooting percentage.
• Tennessee would have a few more turnovers than usual (11.2) and Auburn would have about its average of 12.8.
• Both teams would get more than their averages on the offensive boards. Tennessee’s average was 10.1, and Auburn’s was 12.53.
• Tennessee would earn a few more trips to the free throw line than usual (20.4), and Auburn would get somewhere around its average of 19.3.
• Tennessee had to win on shooting percentage and had to keep turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate even.

Where it went according to plan

On the offensive boards, Tennessee did get a few more than its average of 10.1 as expected by netting 15. The Tigers should have gotten more than their average of 12.53, too, but they got only 7.

Where it went wrong

It’s really not that everything went terribly wrong. It’s just that nearly everything went a little bit wrong.

The Vols’ offense didn’t shoot poorly, but they weren’t up to their season standards. They shot 47.5% from the field (49.9% for the season) and 32.1% from three (35.2% for the season).

Meanwhile, the defense did not only not hold Auburn to below its average shooting percentage, it allowed them to shoot a higher percentage than usual: 46.4% from the field (44.9% for the season) and 38.2% from the arc (37.5% for the season). Tennessee should have had an advantage in these categories, but they didn’t.

The numbers suggested that Tennessee would end up with more turnovers than usual (11.2) in this game just because Auburn is really good at forcing them. That happened, as they turned the ball over 13 times. The surprising part to me is that Auburn had only 5 turnovers in this game despite averaging 12.8 per game. Tennessee’s not especially good at creating turnovers, and Auburn suddenly decided it wasn’t Christmas anymore.

Based on their opponents’ defensive numbers, the Vols should have gotten more trips to the free throw line than usual (20.4), and the Tigers should have gotten about their average of 19.3. Instead, the Vols got less than their average (16) while the Tigers got more (24). This is almost certainly a result of taking the tasty three-point bait instead of doing what they do with Grant Williams and an inside-out game.

Based on their season-long statistical resumes, the Vols had two main goals against Auburn: (1) keep the game even in turnovers, o-rebounds, and free throw rate; and (2) outshoot the Tigers. They won on offensive rebounds, but they lost on turnovers and free throw attempts, and they failed to win the effective shooting percentage battle.

All of these things can be true at the same time:

• The Vols were on the wrong end of an unfortunate call in the final minutes of a big game. An Auburn three should have been ruled basket interference.
• There are plenty of other things Tennessee could have done better to win; limiting turnovers (13) and not getting carried away from the arc (28 attempts) were a good place to start today.
• The Vols are a jump-shooting team, and a really good one at that. As a result, they don’t get to the free throw line as much (29.8% free throw rate in league play, 13th in the SEC).
• Vol opponents were whistled for 20+ fouls 10 times this season. All of them came in November-January.

The Vols got a bad call. The Vols did plenty of other things wrong. The Vols don’t get to the line very often because they’re a great jump-shooting team. The Vols don’t get to the line as much as they did earlier this year.

All of it was a factor in Auburn’s 84-80 win. And all of it could be a factor in the games that matter most. And those games are coming soon.

When you’re trying to win the big prize – a position Tennessee is still getting used to – everything that precedes the NCAA Tournament is about producing your best basketball for those three weeks. And the more you win, the easier the path in the bracket.

Tennessee’s best basketball was the last two games: 71-52 over Kentucky, 71-54 over Mississippi State. The defensive end gave it that qualifier. Today, Auburn launched 34 threes and, to their absolute credit, made 13 of them (38.2%). The Vols probably got a little caught up in it, firing 28 of their own. Before we’re too quick to judge that, however, keep in mind that 28 was the second-highest total of the season…behind 29 against Gonzaga. It can work both ways.

It works better for Tennessee playing inside-out; Auburn didn’t have the interior presence of Gonzaga, so it was certainly less wise today. But Tennessee works best overall when it defends at a higher level than we saw today. Part of it was Admiral Schofield’s foul trouble, limiting him to only 25 minutes. But that’s also simply part of who Tennessee is: the Vols play a short rotation, and can be vulnerable when the whistle doesn’t go their way.

So yes, the whistle got weird at LSU and Auburn. That’s half of Tennessee’s losses and two-thirds in SEC play; unless Vanderbilt gets the Holy Spirit tonight, the Vols (and possibly Kentucky) will become the first team to go 15-3 in SEC play and fail to win the title. Some of it is bad luck. Some of it is poor officiating. Some of it is Tennessee needing to be even better.

Much like the loss at Rupp, Tennessee can use this as a learning experience. On the whole, a 27-4 (15-3) season with overtime losses to Kansas and LSU, a four-point loss at Auburn, and falling at Rupp Arena? That’s an excellent year, worthy of the one seed conversation. When it started at 23-1 (11-0) and finished 4-3 – due more than anything to the increased degree of difficulty in the schedule – it feels a little more disappointing.

But the last word of this season is a long way from being written.

If the Vols are out of the No. 1 seed conversation, their biggest loss today is potentially having to face the very best teams (Virginia and full-strength Duke) in the Elite Eight instead of the Final Four. I don’t think the Vols are totally eliminated from the No. 1 seed conversation – what Kentucky and North Carolina do today and next week will matter – but they had to be considered the favorite going into today.

But the biggest picture finds a Tennessee team that just put its best basketball on the floor in Knoxville, then took itself out of it at Auburn before hot three-point shooting and a bad call finished them off. The Vols no longer control their own destiny for the SEC title and a No. 1 seed. But they absolutely control their own destiny for their best basketball showing up in the NCAA Tournament.

Keep getting better.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this weekend, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Saturday

Today’s the last day of the SEC regular season, and heading into today’s action, Tennessee and LSU are tied at 15-2 while Kentucky is one game back at 14-3. There are three games that will impact the SEC regular season championship today, and fortunately, they’re not all on at the same time.

First up, is Tennessee at Auburn at noon on ESPN. Check out our narrative and four factors game previews.

If Tennessee wins, the game at 2:00 on CBS between Kentucky and Florida won’t matter, as the Wildcats will still be at least one game behind regardless of anything else. If the Vols lose, however, we’ll not only want Kentucky to lose as well, we’ll need them to. You don’t have to actually choke out the words, “Go Gators,” but you do want those guys to win today.

And then at 8:30 tonight on the SEC Network, winless (in the conference) Vanderbilt goes to an LSU team playing without their suspended head coach. It’s extremely unlikely, but we want the Tigers to lose. Hey, this is college basketball, where crazy things can happen.

Of course, the SEC regular season championship isn’t the only thing of importance today, as the Vols are also jockeying for a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

On that front, the biggest game to watch today is the showdown between Duke and North Carolina at 6:00 on ESPN. In case you’re wondering, yes, we have an opinion on who Vols fans should root for in the Blue Devils-Tar Heels game.

Also important is the Michigan-Michigan State game at 8:00 on ESPN. Those two teams are more remote threats, but they could become factors under certain circumstances.

Sunday

Tomorrow, Houston (which remains No. 6 in the all-important NET Rankings) could have its hands full with Cincinnati. That game is on at noon on CBS.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this weekend: