Gameday on Rocky Top

It belongs in a museum.

So, look. This is a year when hyperbole is available on a regular basis for Tennessee. Jordan Bowden’s dunk at Vanderbilt is one of the best I’ve ever seen by a Tennessee player. And it came at a crucial moment, with the Vols down five with under four to play.

But this thing last night was a masterpiece.

• As Lamonte Turner pointed out postgame, Schofield jumped off his right foot and dunked right-handed. I didn’t even notice that in the carnage.
• The perfect timing of, “Building ready to exploOOOOOOODE!” on commentary.
• The perfect follow-up of total silence from the announce crew, which is so hard to do. Kudos to those guys for not being bigger than the moment itself.
• The baseline ref’s extra body language in calling the blocking foul.
• Schofield’s wrestling heel walkaway.

Also, a credit to the victim, freshman Robert Woodard, for trying to take that charge. Defensive effort should always be applauded in moments like this, in a big game the Bulldogs were on the verge of watching slip away. That kid tried to make a play. And his feet weren’t far from making it happen. That’s the risk required: sometimes you’re the hero, and sometimes you’re on the tracks when the train’s coming through.

Tennessee’s train, by the way, was incredibly efficient last night. Late fouls put the Vols on the line 15 times for the night, but UT’s first free throw came with 10:53 left in the game. But it felt more weird than wrong: the game had great flow with few fouls on either side, and Tennessee was getting the shots they wanted.

On the night, the Vols had 66 field goal attempts, fourth-most in regulation on the season. And only 11 of them were threes, second-fewest on the season.

After taking Auburn’s bait in the regular season finale, the Vols imposed their will on a good Mississippi State team for the second time in ten days. Obviously Schofield (20 points on 9-of-12) and Williams (16 on 8-of-17) were terrific. But getting not just Jordan Bone, but Lamonte Turner active inside the arc was critical.

For Turner, it wasn’t just the assists (eight, with Bone’s nine). Lamonte is an incredibly efficient scorer inside the arc: 35-of-58 (60.3%) in league play, eighth-best in the conference. Tennessee’s guards created in ways that sucked in the defense, and one of the biggest beneficiaries was Kyle Alexander: 16 points and seven offensive rebounds.

It’s not rocket science, but Tennessee’s offense has been so good all year in so many ways, it’s easy to forget what brings out their very best. Last night was good, old-fashioned basketball: guards penetrate and distribute, big men clean it up, let your two best players take the most shots.

None of that will come as easy against Kentucky.

We Could Get Used To This

The Vols find themselves playing the weekend in the SEC Tournament for just the sixth time since 1991. But as it’s now also the sixth time since 2008, perhaps we can start to put some of these old ghosts to bed.

This will also be the third weekend meeting between Tennessee and Kentucky of the decade. In 2010 on Saturday, the Vols were down six with nine minutes to play, but lost by 29 (and then both teams made the Elite Eight). Last year on Sunday, the Vols turned back a 17-point Kentucky lead in the first half to take the lead briefly in the second, and pulled back with one on a Jordan Bone shot with 1:26 to play. But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished off an incredible afternoon (29 points and 7 rebounds) down the stretch, and Kentucky won by five.

This year the regular season meeting in Rupp Arena was the highest-ranked Tennessee-Kentucky game ever, the one in Knoxville perhaps the best performance by the Vols all season. But this one feels like it has the most at stake.

Virginia and Gonzaga are both already down this week; the Cavs should still be a No. 1 seed, and Gonzaga should still be headed to Anaheim at No. 1 or No. 2. Duke’s narrow win over North Carolina makes things more complicated than the alternative for the selection committee; a Florida State victory in the ACC finals tonight would only help the winner of the Vols and Wildcats. But right now, both Tennessee and Kentucky are ahead of North Carolina in NET, and the Tar Heels now have six losses to Tennessee’s four and Kentucky’s five.

The door feels rightfully open for the winner of Tennessee and Kentucky to earn a No. 1 seed, with Kansas City the most likely destination. But I don’t think anything is off the table at this point; if Duke falls to Florida State and the Vols win the SEC Tournament, there’s a scenario where Tennessee could go to Louisville as the No. 1 seed.

The Cats remain uncomplicated: 24-0 when shooting at least 28% from three, 3-5 when they don’t. Free throws have been the biggest disparity between these two teams this year: Kentucky is 42-of-62 (67.7%) in our two meetings, Tennessee 23-of-32 (71.9%). Tennessee doesn’t have to have it to win – the Vols (in)famously shot zero free throws in the second half against the Cats in Knoxville and won by 19 – and aren’t built to have everything go through the free throw line anyway, as we saw last night. The biggest thing Tennessee can do is defend their butts off, again. Kentucky made 14 shots in Knoxville. This time they’ll have Reid Travis back in the mix. But if Tennessee is going to beat Kentucky to earn a No. 1 seed – and if Tennessee is going to advance deep into March – it will be their defense that makes the difference.

Tennessee’s program, largely because of this team and its coaching staff, has played itself into an opportunity like this. We’ve earned the right to be here. Now they’ll have to earn the right to advance. And it’s no surprise to find Kentucky on the other side of the equation once more.

The Vols and Cats will go approximately 20 minutes after the conclusion of Florida and Auburn, which tips at 1:00 PM ET. A No. 1 seed and a chance to win the SEC Tournament for the first time since 1979 are on the table. This is March.

Go Vols.

How much of Gonzaga’s loss is everyone else’s gain?

If the Zags are, in fact, a No. 2 seed now…they’re still almost certainly headed to Anaheim. With the Pac-12 looking like a one-or-two-bid league, none of the other contenders on the top two lines of the bracket are west of Texas. So even if a fourth No. 1 seed is now open, whoever earns it will be looking at a somewhat similar fate as teams near the bottom of the No. 2 line a week ago: headed west with a chance to meet Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, now with a slightly easier path to get there. “Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible.” And since Gonzaga is the only candidate for whom Anaheim is of even remote natural interest…you get the idea.

With all the favorites winning in the ACC Tournament on Thursday, the bigger question now shifts to, “Will the selection committee put three teams from the same conference as No. 1 seeds?” It’s happened once before in the 64-team format: in 2009, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and UConn all sat atop the bracket from the Big East. Since then, however, we’ve only seen two years with two No. 1 seeds from the same conference: 2016 (North Carolina & Virginia) and 2018 (Villanova & Xavier).

If Virginia’s locked in, does it matter who wins between Duke and North Carolina? It seems less complicated for the Blue Devils to prevail: everyone in the free world wants to put full-strength Duke atop the bracket, especially after Zion Williamson went 13-of-13 from the floor in his return last night. A Duke win would remove some of the luster from Carolina’s pair of regular season victories in the rivalry, as they were Zion-free, and the Tar Heels already trail in NET (seventh) and KenPom (fifth). Another Carolina win would almost certainly ensure they’re a No. 1 seed, but it’s just tougher for me to see the committee putting Duke on the No. 2 line.

Of course, none of this should matter if Tennessee wins the SEC Tournament.

About that…

You know the drill by now: the Vols won the SEC Tournament when it was reinstated in 1979…and that’s it. Tennessee made the semifinals from 1982-84 and again in 1989, and famously made a run to the title game behind Allan Houston in 1991. Since then, the Vols made it to Saturday in 2008, 2010, and 2014, and to Sunday in 2009 and last season. Four times in the last 20 years the Vols received a double-bye, but lost their first game on Friday (1999, 2000, 2006, 2012). This is a historic season, but just winning tonight still qualifies as noteworthy when it comes to the Vols and this tournament.

Tennessee beat Mississippi State ten days ago in one of its finest performances of the season, 71-54 in Knoxville. The Bulldogs shot 36.6% from the floor, 4-of-20 from the arc, and 12-of-22 from the line. They also turned it over 17 times, a signature performance from the defense the Vols will need to advance this month. But last night, Mississippi State burned it down: 53.4% from the floor, 11-of-25 (44%) from the arc, and 7-of-9 at the line in an 80-54 beat down of Texas A&M.

The worst part about the double bye is catching a team that’s good and warmed up in a new arena. Last night’s performance certainly qualifies for Mississippi State. To get to the No. 1 seed conversation and another potential rubber match with Kentucky, the Vols have to go through the Bulldogs first. It will require the poise this Tennessee team should know well by now.

Put the coffee on. We’ll see you tonight.

The conference tournaments have been going on for a couple of days now, and the teams that Tennessee fans care most about start playing today. Besides the Vols, who should Tennessee fans watch and root for this week? We have answers. Or opinions, at least.

Here’s the latest info from the team sheets, updated through the games on Tuesday night and sorted by NET Rankings:

Gonzaga

Virginia overtakes Gonzaga for the top spot, as the Bulldogs lost this week to St. Mary’s. I thought that the Zags’ long hold on the top spot was in jeopardy when their regular season ended, so the thing that surprised me wasn’t that Virginia jumped them but that they didn’t fall further. They’re barely over .500 in Q1 wins (4-3), and their computer rankings don’t seem to justify that second spot. I won’t be surprised if they drop further as the ACC and SEC tournaments progress.

Virginia

As for the Cavaliers, nobody’s catching them for that top spot. They could help the Vols, though, by giving either Duke or North Carolina another loss thus maybe freeing up room below them on the 1-line.

Root for: Virginia to win out if it means beating either Duke or North Carolina. If either or both of Duke and North Carolina have already lost, root for Virginia to lose as well. It won’t matter, but hey.

Houston

I still don’t know what to make of Houston’s position among this group of teams, as they, like Gonzaga, haven’t played as many Q1 opponents as the other teams on the list. The Cougars will have a couple of make-or-break opportunities in the AAC Tourney, though, so we might find out if they’re truly legit this week. If the chalk holds, they’ll get UConn (No. 94 NET) tomorrow and two Q1 opponents in UCF (No. 28) on Saturday and Cincinnati (No. 27) on Sunday. Even if they win out, though, I don’t see how the Cougars stay in the fourth spot due to the better opportunities for the teams competing with them for it.

Root for: Houston to lose. The sooner the better.

Tennessee/Kentucky

The rest is where it gets especially interesting. The SEC Tournament will likely determine the pecking order between Tennessee and Kentucky. Assuming they each take care of business tomorrow, they’ll meet on Saturday. That game would decide which of them is the first SEC team in the NET Rankings and, assuming LSU awaits in the championship, could also give that team an additional (and important) Q1 opportunity.

Root for: Tennessee, Kentucky, and LSU to all win tomorrow and Tennessee to win out. If the Vols lose to Kentucky on Friday, root for Kentucky and LSU to both lose, the sooner the better.

Duke/North Carolina

Similarly, the ACC Tournament will likely determine the Duke-North Carolina pecking order. UNC plays Louisville tonight at 7:00, and Duke plays Syracuse after that. Assuming they both win, they’ll meet again tomorrow at 9:00. Whoever wins that will likely face Virginia on Saturday at 8:30.

Root for: Duke and North Carolina to both lose. If they play each other, root for UNC to win and hope the Selection Committee doesn’t want three ACC teams on the 1-line.

Here are the tip times (many are approximate) and TV schedules again for convenience:

Curated, through Friday:

Complete, through Friday:

As the Vols entered the NCAA Tournament last year, there was no blueprint. SEC Champions at 25-8 (13-5) and a No. 3 seed, Tennessee was capable of winning games in a variety of ways. Turns out we didn’t have the drawings for Kyle Alexander’s absence and divine intervention on a Loyola-Chicago bounce. You just never know in March. But that team had as good of a chance to advance in the NCAA Tournament as any in Tennessee’s history.

And, as we’ve known for months now, this year’s team is more than just better than last year.

March works both ways. The only Tennessee team to make the Elite Eight in 2010 lost five times in the regular season by double digits, then by 29 to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. They survived No. 11 seed San Diego State in round one, and took advantage of an upset in thrashing No. 14 Ohio in round two. And then they played one of the finest games in school history in beating No. 2 Ohio State, and were seconds away from the Final Four against No. 5 Michigan State.

Sometimes you get that path to the promised land: 11, 14, two, and five. Or the one that was in front of the Vols last season: 14, 11, then what would have been seven and nine in Atlanta.

Sometimes you get chalk. The next-closest Tennessee team to the promised land was 2007, who survived a knock-down, drag-out No. 4 vs No. 5 game with Virginia in the second round, then had a 20-point lead on No. 1 Ohio State before giving it away at the free throw line.

And sometimes you get 2014: millimeters away from firing the coach, then winning in overtime in the First Four, then beat downs of No. 6 UMass and another thrashing of another Cinderella in No. 14 Mercer in round two. And then falling to No. 2 Michigan in the Sweet 16 on a hotly disputed charge call.

When we throw around, “The best in school history,” how do we define it? In recent years, was it 2008? Ranked number one after another of the finest games in school history at Memphis, outright SEC Champions, but vanquished by 19 points in a bad match-up in the Sweet 16? Is it Pearl’s first team, easily one of the most memorable seasons in school history, who fought their way to a No. 2 seed only to fall in round two?

Seasons are always heavily influenced by where they end in March, but as all of them end with a loss save the champion, you have to be sure to celebrate appropriately along the way. Last year’s Vols got the nets and the SEC rings at 13-5. This year’s Vols went 15-3 and will come away empty handed on that particular piece of jewelry.

But everything, ultimately, is about giving yourself the best chance to win in the bracket. Not all jewelry is created equal. Build your team to produce its best basketball at the right time, and win enough games to make that path as easy as possible.

We love KenPom for many reasons, but one is its objectivity. So when ranking the best teams in recent history, it looks like this in that metric:

Cuonzo Martin’s last team, play-for-play, rated the best of this era before this season began. It lost a ton of close games (0-6 in games decided by six points or less) and rated 341st in luck in KenPom. But it was also capable of evisceration, as it did to Virginia by 35 and plenty of other teams down the stretch. This team, after all, had more NBA players on it than any in Tennessee’s recent history.

Meanwhile the 2008 Vols – 13-3 in games decided by six points or less – finished fourth in luck in KenPom. The 2010 Vols weren’t far behind at 20th, going 6-1 in games decided by six points or less before falling to Michigan State.

Which season is best or most memorable? Much of that is up to you to decide. You never know in March.

Here’s what we do know: no matter what happens in the SEC Tournament, this Tennessee team will be better positioned to make a run to the Final Four than any I’ve ever seen.

Tennessee’s current KenPom rating is 27.93. That would make them a 4-6 point favorite over 2008, 2014, and last season; they’d be almost a 10-point favorite over the 2010 Elite Eight squad. And they’re 145th in luck, going 4-3 in games decided by six points or less. As always, the best way to win close games is not to play them. And Tennessee is playing them against the right teams: five of those seven close game opponents are going to the NCAA Tournament, six if Alabama can get in.

This team has some incredible parts. Grant Williams just won SEC Player of the Year back-to-back. Admiral Schofield and Jordan Bone also earned first-or-second team all-conference honors. In the post-Ernie/Bernie era, only three Tennessee teams have placed three players on first-or-second All-SEC teams:

• 1981: Gary Carter, Dale Ellis, Howard Wood
• 2008: Chris Lofton, Tyler Smith, JaJuan Smith
• 2019: Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, Jordan Bone

We have seen incredible individual efforts from these guys. Grant Williams with 43 at Vanderbilt. Admiral Schofield with 30 against Gonzaga. Jordan Bone with 27 against Kentucky. But Tennessee’s best basketball still does not follow any individual blueprint. This goes the other way too: Lamonte Turner certainly struggled from the arc in Tennessee’s losses, but he also went a combined 0-for-7 in Tennessee’s two best performances of the season against Kentucky and Mississippi State, and had a signature performance in one of Tennessee’s best wins at Ole Miss.

We’re well-versed in what gets Tennessee beat: opponents getting to the free throw line far more often than the Vols. What qualifies as Tennessee’s best basketball is, in part, the opposite of this: great defense without putting the other team on the line. What the Vols did against Kentucky and Mississippi State is what will get them through in March.

But the Vols are also more than great individuals on the other end of the floor. The Vols are 24-1 when they have at least 15 assists, 3-3 when they don’t.

For all the strengths of their individuals, Tennessee’s best basketball still comes when the team flows together: a commitment to great defense without fouling, and an offense that flows through good ball movement creating great shots. One fly, we all fly indeed.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this week, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Monday

No. 1 Gonzaga is back in action this evening. If the Vols can make it to the Final Four, the Bulldogs may be one of the other teams there, so it’s time to start paying attention to them again.

The SEC Tournament

The SEC Tournament tips off Wednesday, and we’ll be watching the Vanderbilt-Texas A&M game at 9:00 on the SEC Network, as it is one of two early games in the Vols’ bracket. Tip times for tournament games, by the way, are often dependent on what time the immediately-prior game finishes, so many of the tip times are approximate.

The winner of the Commodores-Aggies game takes on Mississippi State around 9:00 on Thursday, also on the SECN, and then the winner of that one advances to meet the Vols at around 9:00 on Friday. That one’s on the SECN, too.

Meanwhile, LSU and Kentucky both also play their first games on Friday. The Tigers are on ESPN at 1:00, and Kentucky is on the SECN at 7:00.

Here’s the full SEC Tournament Bracket.

The ACC Tournament

Why should Vols fans care about the ACC Tournament? Because the 1-seed line is currently crowded with ACC teams. Virginia, Duke, and North Carolina are all in action on Thursday. The Cavaliers tip at 12:30 on ESPN, North Carolina tips at 7:00 on ESPN, and Duke tips around 9:00. All games are on ESPN, and, like the SEC Tournament games, many of the tip times are approximate.

The ACC Tourney continues on Friday, but there are no pre-seeded teams scheduled for that day, so you’ll just have to watch the ACC Tournament bracket for updates.

Other games of interest

In addition to the SEC and ACC Tournament games, Houston, Michigan State, and Michigan all have games scheduled for this Friday. Houston plays at noon on ESPN2, Michigan State plays at 12:30 on BTN, and Michigan plays at 9:25 on BTN.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this week. This was prepared Monday, 3/11/19, so by the time you see this, it TBD teams may have already been decided.

The Vols’ last game of the regular season didn’t turn out like they’d hoped, as they fell to the Auburn Tigers, 84-80. That, combined with LSU’s win over Vanderbilt resulted in LSU winning (for now — it may end up getting asterisked) the SEC Regular Season Championship with a 16-2 record.

It’s better to be disappointed now than two weeks from now, and this game can serve as a good, hard lesson to learn. The team made history this regular season, and yet when it came down to the last game, it couldn’t claim the thing that really mattered. The good news is that that wasn’t the final but the mid-term, and if the Vols can take that lesson into the NCAA Tournament, they can still ace the class.

The game against the Tigers could have turned out differently, of course, for a variety of reasons. Here’s a closer look at the outcome from a four-factors perspective.

In the preview, we said that we expected the following:

• The Vols would shoot well and have some negative impact on Auburn’s usual shooting percentage.
• Tennessee would have a few more turnovers than usual (11.2) and Auburn would have about its average of 12.8.
• Both teams would get more than their averages on the offensive boards. Tennessee’s average was 10.1, and Auburn’s was 12.53.
• Tennessee would earn a few more trips to the free throw line than usual (20.4), and Auburn would get somewhere around its average of 19.3.
• Tennessee had to win on shooting percentage and had to keep turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate even.

Where it went according to plan

On the offensive boards, Tennessee did get a few more than its average of 10.1 as expected by netting 15. The Tigers should have gotten more than their average of 12.53, too, but they got only 7.

Where it went wrong

It’s really not that everything went terribly wrong. It’s just that nearly everything went a little bit wrong.

The Vols’ offense didn’t shoot poorly, but they weren’t up to their season standards. They shot 47.5% from the field (49.9% for the season) and 32.1% from three (35.2% for the season).

Meanwhile, the defense did not only not hold Auburn to below its average shooting percentage, it allowed them to shoot a higher percentage than usual: 46.4% from the field (44.9% for the season) and 38.2% from the arc (37.5% for the season). Tennessee should have had an advantage in these categories, but they didn’t.

The numbers suggested that Tennessee would end up with more turnovers than usual (11.2) in this game just because Auburn is really good at forcing them. That happened, as they turned the ball over 13 times. The surprising part to me is that Auburn had only 5 turnovers in this game despite averaging 12.8 per game. Tennessee’s not especially good at creating turnovers, and Auburn suddenly decided it wasn’t Christmas anymore.

Based on their opponents’ defensive numbers, the Vols should have gotten more trips to the free throw line than usual (20.4), and the Tigers should have gotten about their average of 19.3. Instead, the Vols got less than their average (16) while the Tigers got more (24). This is almost certainly a result of taking the tasty three-point bait instead of doing what they do with Grant Williams and an inside-out game.

Based on their season-long statistical resumes, the Vols had two main goals against Auburn: (1) keep the game even in turnovers, o-rebounds, and free throw rate; and (2) outshoot the Tigers. They won on offensive rebounds, but they lost on turnovers and free throw attempts, and they failed to win the effective shooting percentage battle.