Gameday on Rocky Top

The 2-seed Tennessee Volunteers take on the 15-seed Colgate Raiders Friday at 2:45 ET in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament, and the winner advances to meet either Cincinnati or Iowa sometime Sunday.

In the history of 2/15 matchups, the 2-seeds hold a 128-8 (94%) record, so it’s not unreasonable to expect the Vols to advance. But here’s the thing. The NCAA Tournament is designed not only to funnel the best teams to each other in the late rounds, match them up head-to-head, and see who survives. It’s also designed to give a ton of lower-seeded teams the opportunity to avdance by upsetting better teams. So the goal for good teams isn’t just to coast to the second weekend and then see what you can do. You also have to avoid upsets to lower-seeded teams along the way.

Those upsets often come in the form of bad matchups, so let’s take a look at the teams’ respective four factors numbers to see if there’s any reason to be worried.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 55.3 (No. 20)
• Colgate 55.9 (No. 14)

Prior opponents:

• Auburn 53.9 (No. 51)
• Mississippi State 54.6 (No. 36)
• Kentucky 53.6 (No. 59)
• Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)
• LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
• Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
• Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)

Conclusions: Watch out. These guys can shoot, and they’re better from the arc than from the field. The good news is that they don’t take an Auburn-ton of three-pointers, so this doesn’t appear to be Vols kryptonite. They average 9 made threes per game, so they’re not likely to hit 15 of them like we saw in the SEC Tournament championship game, but still, it’s a danger to avoid.

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.9 (No. 25)
• Colgate 19.3 (No. 232)

Prior opponents:

• Auburn 18.3 (No. 151)
• Mississippi State 19.1 (No. 220)
• Kentucky 18.7 (No. 185)
• Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)
• LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
• Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
• Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)

Conclusions: Different game, same story. The paper says Tennessee protects the ball, and its opponent does not. That same story has recently too often ended with the Vols giving way too many turnovers, though, so . . . twist!

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 31.6 (No. 75) (Vols have been trending the right direction in this category)
• Colgate 30.3 (No. 103)

Prior opponents:

• Auburn 33.5 (No. 39)
• Mississippi State 34.6 (No. 23)
• Kentucky 37.9 (No. 4)
• Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)
• LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
• Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
• Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)

Conclusions: Good news for the Vols here, as Colgate is not nearly as good at getting their own misses as Tennessee’s recent competition.

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 33.4 (No. 175)
• Colgate 28.9 (No. 285)

Prior opponents:

• Auburn 30.9 (No. 245)
• Mississippi State 33.0 (No. 188)
• Kentucky 42.2 (No. 14)
• Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)
• LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
• Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
• Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)

Conclusions: The good news here is that Colgate is, as you’d guess, neither Kentucky nor LSU. The bad news is that Auburn wasn’t, either.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.3 (No. 20), while Colgate’s defense against that is 50.6 (No. 162). That’s about like Auburn. The Vols’ excellent EFG%, by the way, is built on two-pointers, not three-pointers.

When Colgate has the ball

The Raiders’ EFG% is 55.9 (No. 14), which makes them even better than Auburn in this category. Tennessee’s shooting defense is 47.4 (No. 35).

Conclusions

I know this is Colgate. I know this is a 2/15 matchup. And I know that Tennessee is like a 15-point favorite. But I don’t like this. At all.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.9 (No. 25), while Colgate’s defensive counterpart to this category is 18.0 (No. 212).

When Colgate has the ball

Colgate’s turnover % is terrible at 19.3 (No. 232), but as we’ve been saying all year, Tennessee’s not especially good at forcing turnovers, either. The Vols’ number here is 18.2 (No. 188).

Conclusions

My new favorite soapbox is reminding folks that basketball is not bowling or golf. It’s not just you against you, it’s you against you and an opponent actively engaged in attempting to make you look bad. Tennessee failed on both counts last Sunday. They weren’t their best selves. But Auburn also had something to do with how poorly Tennessee played. The Tigers are especially good at creating turnovers, and that made the Vols look like they couldn’t even accomplish the most fundamental goals of basketball, like dribbling or passing to teammates.

All of that is to say this: If and when Tennessee gets beat in this year’s tournament, it’s going to fall to either (1) a great team, or (2) a team with the kryptonite composed of both terrific and abundant three-point shooting and an ability to create extra possessions through turnovers (and/or offensive rebounds). Colgate has the shooting ingredient, but without the ability to create turnovers, they don’t have the kryptonite.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 31.6 (No. 75), while Colgate’s defense in that category is 26.9 (No. 113).

When Colgate has the ball

The Raiders’ OR% is 30.3 (No. 103), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.3 (No. 266).

Conclusions

From these numbers, I wouldn’t expect offensive rebounding to have much to say about the final outcome of this game.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.4 (No. 175), while Colgate’s defense against that is 28.6 (No. 65). To the extent they defend, they do it without fouling much.

When Colgate has the ball

The Raiders’ FT Rate is 28.9 (No. 284), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 34.4 (No. 223).

Conclusions

This looks like a jump-shooting game to me.

Summary and Score Prediction

All signs point toward a game decided by shooting percentage. I’d be surprised if either offensive rebounding or free throw rate impacts the game very much on either side. Instead, this one looks like a game between two teams that can really shoot the ball well. While that’s disconcerting coming off two recent losses to a hot-shooting Auburn squad, the good news for the Vols is twofold: (1) Tennessee defends better than Colgate; and (2) unlike Auburn, Colgate doesn’t appear to have anything else (such as the ability to walk away with Sams Club-sized box of turnovers) to go along with their excellent shooting.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Shoot as well as they usually do, which means shooting much more from the field than from the arc.
2. Keep Colgate below its usual shooting efficiency by tightly defending all jump-shooters, especially those behind the arc.
3. Don’t do anything uncharacteristic in any of the other categories.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 92% chance of winning this one and puts the score at Tennessee 83, Colgate 68.

Go Vols.

The Raiders come to us from the Patriot League, where they started 13-10 (5-5). And then, bang: eight straight wins to finish the season, then a clean run through the conference tournament. Including all three Patriot League tournament games, Colgate won seven of its last eight by double digits.

Before all that they lost at Syracuse by 21, at Penn State by 11, and at Pittsburgh by 14. KenPom has them at 129th overall; our closest comparison there is Georgia, but I wouldn’t think of Colgate in terms of a team we beat by 46.

Colgate knows how to score. Five games with 30+ three-point attempts, 39.1% on the year (13th nationally). And they share it:

• 6’0″ Jordan Burns: 70-of-183 (38.3%)
• 6’8″ Will Rayman: 64-of-143 (44.8%)
• 6’10” Rapolas Ivanauskas: 42-of-97 (43.3%) (!)
• 6’3″ Jack Ferguson: 53-of-128 (41.4%)

They’re efficient inside the arc too: 53.9%, 46th nationally. Burns is a great facilitator, 28th nationally in assist rate, and just scored 35 in the Patriot League final. And they get good work inside the arc from 6’9″ Dana Batt and 6’8″ Malcolm Regisford. This team has good size and uses it well at all points on the offensive end.

Colgate doesn’t give or take at the free throw line. This will be interesting when dealing with Grant Williams. The Raiders are 284th in free throw rate, and 65th on the defensive end of that equation: they don’t foul, and they don’t get fouled. That suggests far more jump shots, especially when you have 6’8″ and 6’10” guys taking that many threes. Only 16% of Colgate’s points come via the stripe, and only 17% of their opponent’s points.

Playing Tennessee could change all this, of course. When playing above their level in non-conference, the Raiders were -20 in free throw attempts vs Syracuse, -14 vs South Florida, -11 vs Penn State, and -9 vs Pitt. That’s a comforting stat, if Tennessee is disciplined enough to take advantage of it and not get into another three-point shooting contest.

Turnovers have been an issue. The Raiders give it away on 19.3% of possessions, 232nd nationally, and allow a steal on 10.5% of possessions, 327th nationally.

Colgate should have a hard time stopping Tennessee’s offense, no doubt. But the best way for Tennessee to win is consistent with the best basketball they’ll need to advance: lock it down defensively. Do not allow a team that’s won 11 in a row and loves the three to get hot. Do not allow a team that’s won 11 in a row and loves the three to get hot. Do not allow a team that’s won 11 in a row and loves the three to get hot. Do not.

The Vols haven’t been far enough up the bracket to be in this situation often, but did a nice job of it last year with Wright State: teams seeded 14-16 have some happy-to-be-here in their DNA. The sooner you bring it out, the better.

Auburn is the only team to beat Tennessee twice this season, and both times, the Tigers did it by hitting double digit threes and forcing double digit turnovers. We know that allowing the opponent to get to the free throw line an inordinate number of times was also a problem against Kentucky once and the LSU Tigers the only time we played them, but if there’s a blueprint for beating the Vols in the Big Dance, I’d look first for teams that check the same boxes Auburn does.

Three-pointers per game

We won’t know the Vols’ possible opponents until the official bracket is unveiled tonight at 6:00, but here is a list of teams that are similar to or better than Auburn at hitting a plethora of three-pointers per game:

Auburn’s 5th in the nation in three-pointers made per game, and the table above includes the Top 20 teams in that category. Most of those won’t make the tournament, but some of them will. Wofford, Villanova, Belmont, or Furman could spell trouble when it comes to having to defend three-pointers.

Forced turnovers

Here’s a list of teams that are similar to or better than Auburn at forcing turnovers:

Auburn is 6th in the nation in forced turnovers per game, and the above table includes the Top 20 in that category. Again, most of those won’t actually be in the tournament, but some may have or still may earn automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments, and some have NET ratings strong enough to get at-large bids. Buffalo, N.C. State, VCU, and a couple of others could give Tennessee problems if they end up in the same region.

The deadly combo

The good news is that there doesn’t appear to be, apart from the Auburn Tigers themselves, a team that presents the same lethal combination that killed Tennessee’s two chances at SEC titles this season.

Maybe Tennessee’s performance today was more about playing the day after a game that felt like a national semi-final. There’s a reason they don’t play the title game without a day of rest between that and the Final Four games. And maybe Bruce Pearl is the sole caretaker of that pocketful of kryptonite and his team will get bounced by someone else before they can advance to face the Vols again.

But if the magic formula is great three-point shooting and an ability to force a lot of turnovers, then the Vols are going to want to give a wide berth to any team that does well at both.

I didn’t see most of the game today; maybe that was a blessing. I know we’ve spent a great deal of time over the last few weeks talking about brackets and No. 1 seeds; the only path Tennessee has left there is to hope the line about the selection committee not having time to care about Sunday games is fact and not fiction. But wherever the Vols end up now – No. 1 or No. 2, Louisville or Anaheim – they have nothing to do except look in the mirror.

And on that mirror, I’d write “Auburn”.

The Vols need to see themselves: a team that beat Gonzaga and Kentucky twice, spent four weeks at number one, can beat anybody and didn’t lose a single game outside Quad 1. They need to see the team that beat Kentucky on Saturday.

And they need to see Auburn, to be reminded that no one will give it to you.

Auburn is a good basketball team; on the right day, they’re a great team, and the numbers say they were plenty great today. Bruce Pearl is a great coach, we know. No one can take any of that from them.

But in both of Tennessee’s meetings with Auburn, we’re left looking back in that mirror. On the road, the Vols took the invitation to jack threes and came up four points short after a back-to-back stretch of their best basketball in beating Kentucky and Mississippi State. Today in Nashville, the Vols turned it over 17 times and surrendered 13 offensive rebounds. That’s thirty extra possessions. Auburn turned it over seven times, and the Vols had four offensive rebounds. You can do the math. And all of this happened after a back-to-back stretch of their best basketball in beating Mississippi State and Kentucky.

Both times, the Vols faced the Tigers feeling great about themselves, with a championship at stake. Both times, the Vols gave it away.

No one will give it to you.

This Tennessee team is good enough to take it. The lesson, now 34 games into this season and left at the championship altar twice, is you have to take it every night, every possession.

Failure to live that truth cost the Vols two rings.

There’s one ring left.

No one will give it to you. Tennessee has to look in the mirror and remember Auburn. And when they’ve taken a long, hard look at that, they’ll still see a team that is more than capable of taking it.

Keep getting better.

The Vols have beaten better Kentucky teams. John Wall and Demarcus Cousins in 2010. A Final Four squad with Jamal Mashburn in 1993. But I’m not sure a Tennessee win over Kentucky has ever meant as much; I know it hasn’t in my post-Ernie/Bernie lifetime.

A lot of it is a No. 1 seed, which would be the program’s first. We’ve still got to get through Auburn and the selection committee tomorrow, but the Vols have to be considered a favorite to earn one now.

Tennessee was 5-4 against Kentucky under Rick Barnes coming into today. They won at Rupp last year, which is just below the Elite Eight and SEC Tournament titles in frequency around here. That one helped secure an SEC title and solidify this group of players on the national scene. And it really was the national scene today: the biggest game in the 3:30 PM window, in what felt like a play-in for a No. 1 seed.

And Kentucky was good. March will decide how good, ultimately, by UK’s own standards. But all five starters scored in double figures, and Kentucky shot 53.6% from the floor two weeks after making only 14 shots in Knoxville. And the Cats shot 5-of-11 (45.5%) from the arc. This year Kentucky was 24-0 when shooting at least 28%; the last time they lost shooting at least 45% was at Texas A&M in overtime three years ago.

Kentucky went up eight with 2:58 to play. It didn’t feel familiar, because nothing about the weekend in the SEC Tournament is familiar for us yet. But it didn’t feel out of place: good game, good effort from Tennessee, let’s go to the bracket and try to win our way there. The SEC Tournament isn’t Rupp, but Kentucky isn’t the away team either. And in the kind of environment we saw today, good Kentucky teams are expected to get the best of good Tennessee teams.

But this Tennessee team is something more. We’ve seen it all year. And it never looked better than today.

Here’s the final sequence from the 2:58 mark:

• Grant Williams two free throws, Vols down six
• Tyler Herro turnover
• Grant Williams and-one, Vols down three
• PJ Washington bucket, Vols down five
• Admiral Schofield three, Vols down two
• Lamonte Turner steal
• Grant Williams three, Vols up one
• PJ Washington tip-in, Vols down one
• Admiral Schofield miss, Grant Williams offensive rebound, timeout
• Lamonte Turner three, Vols up two
• PJ Washington miss, offensive rebound, miss, Jordan Bone rebound
• Cue the free throws
• Hit the music

PJ Washington was great today, 16 points on 6-of-11 shooting in only 20 foul-plagued minutes. The tip he missed in the final seconds reminded me of Tim Duncan in Game 7 of the 2013 NBA Finals. You just expect him to make that shot. And he missed.

Down the stretch, Kentucky’s best players didn’t convert. Instead, Tennessee’s best players made the best plays in the best win of the best year.

Admiral Schofield adding to his legend. Grant Williams taking Reid Travis with an and-one, a corner three, and a monstrous offensive rebound. Lamonte Turner doing what Lamonte Turner loves to do at the end of games. Jordan Bone grabbing that last rebound and going 4-for-4 at the line.

Our old RTT colleague and friend of the blog Chris Pendley likened it to a Hulk Hogan performance at the end of the match: take your best shots, but in the end we simply won’t sell them. Right hands, big boot, leg drop. 1-2-3. Whatcha gonna do.

There is so much that’s still new in this season. Having Tennessee’s best be better than Kentucky’s on a neutral floor in a year when both are battling against each other for a No. 1 seed? Having it be Tennessee’s players that make all those players in a game like this at the end?

This team simply keeps getting better. And that’s good, because they’re less than 24 hours away from a chance to win the SEC Tournament for the first time in my life, and many of yours. And then they’re headed to the NCAA Tournament, probably atop a region for the first time ever. And then…

Go Vols.

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